http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/04/report-dems-to-force-house-vote-on-clean-cr-that-would-end-shutdown/
Report: Dems to force House vote on clean CR that would end shutdown ?
POSTED AT 4:41 PM ON OCTOBER 4, 2013 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
I’d been wondering whether they might do this, but two days ago WaPo posted this procedural explainer shooting down the idea. Yes, it’s true that whether the House votes on a bill is almost entirely up to the Speaker. And yes, it’s also true that the minority can force the Speaker to call a vote if it files a “discharge petition” signed by 218 House members. Couldn’t Pelosi try something like that, knowing that there are lots of centrist Republicans who might be willing to join her? Nope, said WaPo: As it turns out, it takes a solid month after a discharge petition is filed before it comes to the floor. The earliest they could vote would be November, by which time the shutdown will have long since ended. (I think.)
But wait — what if there’s a discharge petition that’s already on the calendar? Dude?
The bill in question is the “Government Shutdown Prevention Act,” which was introduced in March by GOP Rep. James Lankford of Oklahoma. As the Congressman’s release describes it:“If Congress fails to approve a budget by the end of each fiscal year, the Government Shutdown Prevention Act would ensure that all operations remain running normally without any interruption of services by automatically triggering a continuing resolution (CR) or short-term, stop-gap spending device. The bill creates an automatic CR for any regular appropriations bill not completed before the end of the fiscal year. After the first 120 days, auto-CR funding would be reduced by one percentage point and would continue to be reduced by that margin every 90 days.”This afternoon, Dem Reps. Chris Van Hollen and George Miller will announce that they are introducing a discharge petition for the Lankford bill. They will discuss the procedural ins and outs of this move. The upshot: Once the petition is filed, they will begin rounding up signatures from both Democrats and Republicans. If they can get 218 signatures, a House vote to reopen the government will happen.Dems say that if they get enough signatures, they’d be able to force a vote by October 14th.
October 14th is just three days before the debt-ceiling deadline. Question: Even if there are, say, 30 centrist GOPers who say they want a clean CR, how many of them are actually willing to vote for one? And of that number, how many are willing to sign a discharge petition being organized by conservative bete noire Nancy Pelosi to make it happen? And of that number, how many are willing to end the shutdown just 72 hours before we hit the debt limit, thereby signaling that Boehner’s lost control of his caucus and destroying whatever’s left of his negotiating leverage with the White House? What Pelosi has going for her here is that the “Government Shutdown Prevention Act” was introduced by a Republican, which might give GOP centrists a smidge extra political cover in backing it, and the fact that if the shutdown persists another 10 days, some of those centrists might be so panicked about the backlash back home that they really might consider a discharge petition. But, if the backlash is that severe, then Boehner himself will be looking for an exit by that point and the moderates can just hang with him for the final leadership-approved cave. Why let Pelosi take all the credit for ending a shutdown that the public dislikes when Boehner could do it himself?
He’s promising, by the way, to force Obama to negotiate over the debt ceiling — while also promising that, er, he won’t allow the country to default. I’m curious to see what negotiations look like when one party has acknowledged in advance that they won’t use their key leverage:
Following press reports that he is considering passing a debt ceiling bill with the help of Democratic votes, Speaker John Boehner assured his colleagues in a closed-door meeting that his insistence the government will not default doesn’t mean he won’t fight for spending cuts and other reforms in the bill that raises the debt ceiling.“We are not going to default on the U.S. debt. We never have, we never will. If anybody defaults it’ll be the president who doesn’t write the check. But the speaker was very clear today that, while we’re not going to default, but there will be a negotiation. Even though the president says there will not be, there will be,” said Representative Phil Roe of Tennessee.Boehner argued “the media is wrong,” said Representative John Fleming of Lousiana, and that Boehner’s insistence that the government will not default on its debts “shouldn’t be misconstrued as saying we’re not going to challenge Democrats in that debate.”
As a follow-up to my post earlier wondering where this all ends, read Robert Costa’s new one about which way the House GOP is tilting. A little of this, a little of that: They’re apparently going to ask for the medical-device tax to be repealed, as a token concession to whittling away at ObamaCare; some form of entitlement reform, possibly involving chained CPI and means-testing Medicare; and a “short-term mechanism” on tax reform that would point the two parties towards a bigger deal later. O won’t agree to all of that but he might agree to enough that’ll let Boehner save face sufficiently to get a majority of Republicans. It’s either that or the discharge petition — and if Obama’s gambling the debt ceiling on moderate Republicans’ willingness to vote with Pelosi, he’s gambling a lot.
and...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-04/shut-down-round-latest-dysfunctional-government-news
Shut Down Round Up: The Latest In Dysfunctional Government News
It may "not be some damn game", but this sure is some damn summary of all the latest news and developments. Via Bloomberg:
- House Democrats will attempt to usedischarge petition to force House to vote on clean stopgap spending bill; 17 House Republicans would need to back the measure and 20 House Republicans have said they’d vote for a clean bill
- House in session tomorrow 10am
- White House supports House bill to retroactively pay govt staff, says Obama would veto House piecemeal spending bills
- House Speaker John Boehner says he won’t offer a clean debt limit bill, says shutdown "isn’t some damn game"
- Tea Party-backed Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., says he’s in favor of spending deal that doesn’t include changes to Obamacare
More from Reuters:
House Republicans held their ground on Friday in a standoff with President Barack Obama over the U.S. government shutdown, accusing him of intransigence and not caring about the impact on the American people as the crisis dragged into a fourth day.As Republicans and Democrats remained deadlocked over the shutdown, which was triggered by a dispute over the president's healthcare reforms, the two sides also dug in over a measure to raise the nation's borrowing authority. It must be approved by Congress by October 17 to avoid a government default.House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner tried to squelch reports that he would ease the way to a debt ceiling increase, stressing that Republicans would continue to insist on budget cuts as a condition of raising the borrowing authority."This isn't some damn game,"said an exasperated Boehner, responding to a Wall Street Journal article that quoted an unnamed White House official saying Democrats were "winning" the shutdown battle.Obama reiterated that he was willing to negotiate with Republicans, but said, "We can't do it with a gun held to the head of the American people....""There's no winning when families don't have certainty over whether they're going to get paid or not," Obama told reporters when he paid a visit to a downtown Washington lunch spot that was offering a discount to furloughed workers.The shutdown began October 1 when the Republican House of Representatives refused to approve a bill funding the government unless it included provisions designed to delay or defund Obama's healthcare reforms, which are now being implemented.
The reason for the late ramp: the possibility of a political out maneuvering of the republicans:
Democrats in the House were considering whether they could use a maneuver that would force a vote on legislation to reopen the government immediately, according to a House aide who asked not to be identified.The aide did not provide details. The rarely used and time-consuming "discharge petition" maneuver normally dislodges a bill from a committee and sends it to the House floor if 218 lawmakers sign the petition in the 435-member chamber.White House Spokesman Jay Carney said it was "utterly false" to suggest Obama did not want a speedy end to the shutdown. "We want this to end now. Period," he said.
The melodrama continues tomorrow: same time, same place.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-04/man-sets-himself-fire-national-mall-near-white-house
Man Sets Himself On Fire On National Mall, Near White House
Yesterday it was a shooting at a runaway mom driver that shut down the Capitol area for hours. Today, while there have been no shootings in D.C., moments ago we just got news of a self-immolation in the middle of the National Mall, where a man allegedly doused himself in gasoline and set himself on fire, suffering life-threatening injuries according to the DC Fire Department.
NBC Washington reports that "Passersby on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., ripped off their shirts to help extinguish the flames after a man apparently tried to set himself on fire Friday, witnesses and authorities said. The man was conscious and breathing when he was flown by helicopter to Washington Medical Center, D.C. police said. There was no immediate report on his condition. The incident, which was reported at 4:24 p.m. ET, occurred on Seventh Street Southwest near the National Air and Space Museum, U.S. Park Police said. Witnesses told several media organizations, including NBC Washington, that they saw the man pour gasoline on himself from a red canister and then set himself ablaze. Police said they couldn't confirm those reports. Nearby joggers stopped and ripped off their shirts to smother the flames, NBC Washington reported."
The burned man was promptly carried off the Mall using a helicopter.
A fire official says a man has been flown to the hospital after setting himself on fire on the National Mall.Fire crews responded Friday afternoon to a report of a man on fire at 7th and Madison streets. A witness says she saw a man dump a red canister of gasoline on his head and then set himself on fire.D.C. Fire Department spokesman Tim Wilson says the man has life-threatening injuries.His name and age weren't immediately known.
Sky News confirms:
Other did too
and....
http://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-debt-ceiling-gop-offer-grand-bargain-2013-10
House leadership has begun building a package for its "final volley" in the budget battles over the government shutdown and raising the debt ceiling, National Review's Robert Costa reports.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is preparing the offer for mid-October — presumably ahead of the Oct. 17 deadline to raise the debt ceiling. It is expected to pair an extension of government funding and debt-limit hike with a "small, but strategically designed menu" of conservative wishes.
These conservative inclusions could include a "mechanism" and triggers for talks on tax reform, as well as entitlement reforms like chained CPI and means-testing Social Security. And there will be some items tied to the Affordable Care Act, most likely a repeal of the new tax on medical devices.
The proposed deal is likely to be a non-starter with President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats. They have been pressing for the House to vote on the Senate's so-called "clean" CR to end the government shutdown, as well as a "clean" hike in the debt ceiling.
"Wouldn't fly as the price of CR and debt ceiling. Those have to be clean," a Senate Democratic aide said. "We are happy to set up a process to discuss something like this after we get a clean CR and debt ceiling increase."
On Twitter, White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer replied to Costa and told him that the Republican offer was "detached from legislative and political reality":
The first federal government shutdown in 17 years entered into its fourth day on Friday, with no end in sight. Boehner held a press conference full of emotion, blasting a White House official who told the Wall Street Journal that the White House was "winning" in the shutdown debate.
"This isn't some damn game!" Boehner said.
He said that he wanted Obama to begin a simple discussion. That was a message emphasized by a senior GOP aide Friday afternoon.
"Right now, we’re stuck on getting some Democrat – President Obama, Harry Reid, Bill Clinton, Will.i.am – to negotiate on SOMETHING," the aide said.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-04/what-if-we-go-past-x-date
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/04/2013 18:33 -0400
and....
What If We Go Past The "X" Date?
What if the Treasury were to go over the X date (date beyond which the Treasury cannot honor all its payments) without the debt ceiling being raised? As BofAML notes, the Treasury estimates the X date to be October 17, though they believe that the Treasury may have enough cash and incoming tax receipts to last a few more days. In either case, the date is not too far out. Market concerns over possible postponed payment have been rising as indicated by the performance of October and November bills. What are the options of for the Treasury?
Via BofAML,
In our view, most options are unviable – the most fair and sensible option would be to implement a delayed payment regime where no payments would be made until they could all be made on a day-by-day basis.
1. 14th Amendment will not be used
The White House has ruled out raising the debt ceiling using the 14th amendment (which states that the validity of the public debt of the United States cannot be questioned). National Economic Council Director Gene Sperling and Presidential Adviser Dan Pfeiffer have both rejected using this option this week. Also, earlier this year, the White House press secretary emphasized that the Administration did not believe that the 14th Amendment gives the president the power to ignore the debt ceiling.
2. Trillion dollar coins will not be minted
We do not believe the Treasury will even consider minting coins (which are not subject to debt ceiling) and asking the Fed to purchase them to temporarily get over the debt ceiling. The legality of this is questionable, and it would further deepen the distrust between the two political parties. It would also risk being the first step down a slippery slope of debt monetization. We believe it would be extremely unlikely the Fed would agree to accept platinum coins in return for making Treasury’s payments, as it would politicize the Fed and put its independence at risk.
3. Asset sales are unlikely
During the 2011 debt ceiling debate, Treasury officials rejected the option of selling gold reserves as it would undercut confidence in the US and destabilize the world financial system. Treasury officials determined that a “fire sale” of other assets like TARP assets would not maximize value for taxpayer and could be detrimental. These asset sales would also buy very little time. Since then, the Treasury has completely wound down its MBS portfolio and TARP assets now total less than $25bn.
4. Prioritization of payments: Treasury will be unwilling
Another option in case of a breach of the ceiling would be the prioritization of debt service payments by the Treasury. The idea of issuing scrips or IOUs to claimants (other than those who hold US Treasury debt) would be another manifestation of the same idea, wherein debt payments are deemed superior. However, this may be impossible from an operational standpoint. The Treasury makes 80-100 million payments per month, and modifying systems to pick and choose would be an operational nightmare. The administration would be accused of picking winners and losers and become the center of intense media and public scrutiny. In 2011 when a bill to prioritize debt payments was introduced, the proponents were accused of paying China instead of federal workers. In 2011, Treasury officials reportedly determined that there was no fair or sensible way to pick and choose among the many bills that are due every day.
5. Delayed payment regime most likely
We believe the most plausible option for the Treasury could be implementing a delayed payment regime. In such a scenario, the Treasury would wait until it has enough cash to pay off an entire day’s obligations and then make those payments on a day-to-day basis. For example, if the Treasury did not have enough cash to pay all of its obligations on November 1, 2013, it would wait until enough receipts flow in (perhaps not until November 3 or 4) and then make good on all payments for the 1st. Given that the US has a sizable monthly deficit, the delay would worsen by the day, but at least the Treasury would not have to pick winners and losers.
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-04/someone-getting-nervous-er-er
Someone Is Getting Nervous-er-er
Another day, another shut government and 1-month T-Bills have surged another 6bps to 18.5bps. Despite the relative calm in repo markets, which is likely due to expectations that any technical default will be for a minimal length, the short-term bills most likely to be affected (the 10/31/13 T-Bills) are seeing the largest daily deterioration yet as traders exit and price in the possibility of missed payment.
Charts: Bloomberg
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/senior-admin-official-we-are-winningit-doesnt-really-matter-us-when-shutdown-ends_759185.html
Senior Admin. Official: 'We Are Winning...It Doesn't Really Matter to Us' When Shutdown Ends
8:28 AM, OCT 4, 2013 • BY DANIEL HALPER
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Although the government shutdown continues, it appears President Barack Obama and the White House are not getting any closer to negotiating with Republicans. A quotation from an unnamed senior administration official in today's Wall Street Journal explains why.
Said a senior administration official: "We are winning...It doesn't really matter to us" how long the shutdown lasts "because what matters is the end result."
With this view, it explains why President Obama won't agree to any piecemeal legislation that would keep Veterans Affairs and NIH open during the shutdown. And it explains why President Obama would rather cancel his Asia trip than negotiate with Republicans.
It's because the White House (or, at least this unnamed official) believe it is "winning" by shutting down the government and blaming Republicans. And when one's winning, he's not likely to change course.
As the Journal details, Obama has also argued that he won't negotiate over the debt ceiling because the stakes are too high.
Another risk for Mr. Obama is that people may not sympathize with his refusal to negotiate over the debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has said that no later than Oct. 17 it will only have $30 billion in cash—a sum that will be exhausted in one or two weeks, according to the Congressional Budget Office. After that point, Treasury is expected to start falling behind on its bills.Again, Mr. Obama has vowed not to negotiate, saying the consequences of default would be so severe the matter can't be held hostage to political negotiations. "There will be no negotiations over this," he said Thursday.
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/03/report-boehner-told-group-of-house-republicans-hell-violate-the-hastert-rule-to-raise-the-debt-ceiling-if-necessary/
Report: Boehner told group of House Republicans he’ll violate the Hastert Rule to raise the debt ceiling if necessary
POSTED AT 8:01 PM ON OCTOBER 3, 2013 BY ALLAHPUNDIT
Big news — unless, of course, it’s disinformation, which I doubt.
With attention shifting to potential consequences of not increasing the debt limit, one House Republican said Thursday that Speaker John A. Boehner had told colleagues in a meeting that he was determined to prevent a federal default and was willing to pass a measure through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes.The lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Mr. Boehner had said he would be willing to violate the so-called Hastert Rule if necessary to pass a debt limit increase. The informal rule refers to a policy of not bringing to the floor any measure that does not have a majority of Republican votes.Other Republicans also said Thursday that they got the sense that Mr. Boehner would do whatever was necessary to ensure that the country did not default on its debt.Representative Leonard Lance of New Jersey, one of the moderate Republicans who met privately with Mr. Boehner on Wednesday, would not provide details of the meeting, but said, “The speaker of the House does not want to default on the debt on the United States, and I believe he believes in Congress as an institution, and I certainly believe he is working for the best interests of the American people.”
Could be that some random Republican in the House is worried about Boehner caving and concocted this story for reporters in hopes that there’ll be an uproar on the right over it and Boehner will get nervous. Or, could be that someone in leadership concocted it to calm markets that are jittery after Obama’s “time to freak out” CNBC interview yesterday. Note, though, that the NYT claims to have several sources who have similar impressions about his intentions. And for what little it’s worth, this is precisely what I’d expect him to do if we reach the debt-ceiling deadline on October 16th without a deal. You’d need to have an unusually committed ideological warrior in charge for the House to stand firm as Treasury hits the ceiling, with media air-raid sirens about default blaring in the background. Boehner’s not that guy. After decades in the House, his legacy as Speaker will not be “he played chicken with the prospect of a global economic meltdown.” That’s what Lance is getting at in the excerpt with that telling bit about Boehner believing in Congress “as an institution.” (I recall similar things being said about John Roberts vis-a-vis the legitimacy of the Court before the big ruling on the mandate last year, and you know how that turned out.) I’d go so far as to bet that he’d agree to a clean debt-ceiling hike at the last minute even if he had every reason to believe that it would cost him his Speakership.
And of course, Obama would bet the same way. That’s what yesterday’s tank-the-market soundbite was about, using a quickie downturn based on the president’s pessimism about a deal to give centrist Republicans like Boehner and McConnell a taste of what could happen if they follow tea partiers to the brink. Hasn’t worked especially well — the Dow’s down “only” 100 points as I write this — but debt-ceiling hysteria is showing up in other places:
Market panic isn’t O’s only weapon. In his speech this morning, he warned seniors (a sizable chunk of the GOP’s base) that Social Security checks won’t go out on time if we hit the debt ceiling. And of course the polls are as reliably grim about the ceiling as they are about a shutdown: Yesterday, CNN found that 56 percent think it’d be a bad thing if the ceiling wasn’t raised while 64 percent oppose using the ceiling as leverage to defund ObamaCare specifically. When asked which side they’d blame if the debt limit was reached, 53 percent say congressional Republicans versus just 31 percent who say Obama. Boehner surely has 20 centrist House GOPers willing to vote with Democrats for a clean debt-ceiling hike; even a clean CR to end the much less significant government shutdown seems to be growing more popular in the caucus. The only obstacle to passing one is his own personal reluctance to face the political consequences from the right of bringing that hike to the floor. Show of hands: Who thinks that’ll stop him after two more weeks of tremendous pressure from the center and the left?
Exit quotation from, er, Denny Hastert: “The Hastert Rule never really existed.”
Hi Fred,
ReplyDeleteThe gold being gone has been the rumor for sometime and would explain the 7 year wait for Germany to get theirs back. In this crazy manipulated world that information will probably drive prices lower.
The man setting himself on fire is interesting but I don't know what to make of it, same with the mom shooting the day before. Strange days are getting stranger.
Republicans very well could cave, they usually do, to me it still seems like kabuki theater in order to distract the masses from reality.
Morning Kev - the key point for me ( regarding the lack of gold ) came from the fact that the World Bank put that information right out there for all to see ! And the fact that Germany's gold is gone ( leased out by US ? ) explain why they want their gold back from the US and also why we have refused to do so except by returning piddling amounts over a seven year stretch !
ReplyDeleteAnd have we seen one peep from the media asking " What happened to the gold in Fort Knox ? " , " what does this mean if the US is reporting it has 8,000 tons of gold as Reserve yet in reality there is NO physical gold as it has all been leased out ? " , " how does the lack of gold and clear misrepresentation of US reserves impact on US full , faith and credit and has our issuance of treasury debt been fraudulent since the end of 2012 at a minimum ? " , if we leased out our gold - to whom , why , when and where is it now ? "
The " Man On Fire " , " Gal in the Car " incidents - occurred on back to back days ... a sign of a need for ever more distractions , a sign of folks breaking at the edges ? Who knows , we just these things have occurred and we shall see more "oddities " in the days to come !
Who caves first ? My money is on Boehner , but we shall see - things should get interesting by the end of next week for sure if we see no material progress on the shutdown rolling into debt ceiling political kabuki !