http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/merkel-wins-bellwether-vote-coalition-partner-founders-anti-euro-party-ascent-could-
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/15/2013 13:50 -0400
There was good and bad news for Angela Merkel as today's exit polls from the Bavaria (GDP of $619 billion, bigger than the output of Poland or Austria) state elections - the bellwether vote ahead of next weekend's federal elections (previewed here)- were released. On one hand, the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union or CSU, was set to win a majority in Bavarian state elections (where the CDU does not contest the ballot), giving the incumbent a boost as she heads into the final week of her campaign before a national vote Bloomberg reports.
49 percent has brought his CSU according to initial projections, in Bavaria , Horst Seehofer for a historic outcome, even if it is not as high as long as its predecessors , Edmund Stoiber , or even Franz Josef Strauss . "The CSU lives as a people's party."
While the CSU launched the election party, the mood was the former coalition partner, the FDP on the bottom. With three per cent, the Liberals have clearly missed the re-entry. According disillusioned joined FDP leadership candidate, Martin Zeil, to a first reaction before the cameras: "We would certainly have us another Eregbnis desired, it is an extremely painful defeat."
Party leader Philipp Rösler complained in Berlin a "heavy defeat", but did not want a trend for the parliamentary elections seen on Sunday.After the election, the party will discuss the consequences of their poor performance. The Bavarian FDP chairman of the state Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger said: "This is for us a very bitter result that we really need to look at very closely."
Ude pleased with result
Despite the absolute majority of the CSU, the SPD can view their top candidates to Christian Ude be satisfied. "Especially those who have pre says with great pleasure a decline of the SPD, have to admit that we have a turnaround in Bavaria have done, "Ude said on Sunday evening in Munich. According to initial projections, the Social Democrats were able to improve from 18.6 to nearly 21 percent.
Ude also congratulated the winner of the election CSU and its Prime Minister Seehofer. Who had "the proportion of votes of his party can be distributed such that it was enough for an absolute majority of his party," Ude said.
Widespread optimism SPD General Secretary Andrea the rumor . You said ARD: "We are the only opposition party that has risen."
"Now full pot"
The Bayern-election is considered important test for the parliamentary election on Sunday.Accordingly, the CDU evaluates the absolute majority for the CSU as a clear signal: "This brings us the necessary momentum again to enter the last week of everything," said the parliamentary secretary of the CDU parliamentary group in the Bundestag , Michael Grosse-Brömer, on ZDF.
Were entitled to vote approximately 9.5 million Bavaria. At midday, had a higher participation than in the 2008 election signed. This is expected to be about 64 percent, according to figures from the evening.
Merkel Wins Bellwether Vote As Coalition Partner Founders; Anti-Euro Party Ascent Could Derail Coalition
There was good and bad news for Angela Merkel as today's exit polls from the Bavaria (GDP of $619 billion, bigger than the output of Poland or Austria) state elections - the bellwether vote ahead of next weekend's federal elections (previewed here)- were released. On one hand, the CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union or CSU, was set to win a majority in Bavarian state elections (where the CDU does not contest the ballot), giving the incumbent a boost as she heads into the final week of her campaign before a national vote Bloomberg reports.
"With 49% of the vote, the CSU regained sole control of the country’s second-most populous state, according to ZDF television projections based on partially counted ballots. Led by Prime Minister Horst Seehofer, the CSU rebounded from 2008 when its worst result in more than 50 years forced it into coalition with the Free Democrats... The opposition Social Democrats took 20.7 percent, while their Green party allies had 8.5 percent.
That was the good news: the bad news is that the FDP, Merkel’s national coalition partner, won 3 percent, below the 5 percent hurdle required to win seats in parliament. "This was a painful defeat in Bavaria, said FDP chairman, Vice Chancellor and Economics Minister Philipp Roesler in a press conference on N-TV." So while Merkel's block is accelerating into the elections, it is unclear if it will be able to make up for the lost popularity of its combined coalition.
But the surprise of the day was the strong showing of the The Free Voters, who want Greece to exit the euro, oppose euro-area bailouts and want to trim the power of the European Union, won 8.5 percent, the ZDF projection showed. It is precisely the ascent of anti-Euro powers that could upset the final election "arithmetic" in jeopardy.
As Reuters reports, "a new anti-euro party could enter Germany's national parliament after an election next week, pollsters said on Sunday, potentially upsetting Chancellor Angela Merkel's hopes of returning to power with her current coalition partner." The Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), which calls for an "orderly dismantling" of the euro zone, gained one point to 4 percent in an Emnid poll published on Sunday, taking it close to the 5 percent threshold needed to enter parliament. If the AfD, which has quickly gained momentum after being founded in February, won seats in parliament, Merkel would struggle to get a centre-right majority with the liberal FDP, making a 'grand coalition' with the Social Democrats (SPD) the more likely scenario.
While Merkel remains popular in Germany and recent polls have shown her coalition ahead of the main opposition SPD and Greens, the AfD could upset coalition arithmetic if it gets in.Merkel reiterated at the weekend that she would not enter a coalition with the AfD after the election, telling a regional newspaper: "This question does not arise."...Leading pollsters said the AfD could muster enough support to enter the assembly thanks to its perceived links to the far-right and a protest vote rather than on the back of its Eurosceptic views which have not found much resonance in a country with a pro-European political consensus."The AfD didn't stand a chance simply as an anti-euro party," said Manfred Guellner, head of Forsa polling institute, in top-selling newspaper Bild."But now it's catering to a right-wing populist potential that has always been latent in Germany and that could help it over the 5 percent hurdle," he added.
All of this is even more troubling should the FDP continue to lose popularity as today's Bavaria election showed.
Aside from Bavaria, the broader polling shows that support for Merkel at the national level is flat, if not declining:
Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc dropped by a percentage point in Emnid and INSA national polls published today to 39 percent and 38 percent respectively. The SPD under Steinbrueck gained a point to 26 percent in the Emnid poll and dropped a point to 27 percent in the INSA poll. The Greens lost a point, falling to 10 percent in the Emnid poll and were unchanged at 11 percent according to INSA. The Free Democrats, with whom Merkel wants to ally again after Sept. 22, were unchanged in both polls with Emnid giving them 5 percent and INSA 4 percent.
Finally, it is worth noting that in the economic wastleland of Europe whose recession has double-dipped and may soon be on the verge of a triple-dip recession, that the "Free State of Bavaria" is a major outlier, with an unemployment rate of a tiny 3.8%, compared to 6.8% for the overall country, not to mention the double digit horror stories in places like Spain and Greece. “What really makes me happy is that we have eliminated youth unemployment,” Seehofer said before the vote. Perhaps Bavaria would be willing to accommodate some of the youth unemployment from places like Greece and Spain, where it has recently been tracking at roughly 60%.
and.....
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/reaktion-auf-wahl-in-bayern-csu-jubelt-fdp-bestuerzt-a-922359.html
Munich - Horst Seehofer had to hurry to get it into the parliament. Less than 30 minutes after the initial forecasts stood the old and new Prime Minister of Bavaria in Munich before his cheering supporters. "This is a great electoral success every second and every second Bavarian Bayer has chosen us thus, 2008 is history -.., We are back," Seehofer called from the stage.
Party leader Philipp Rösler complained in Berlin a "heavy defeat", but did not want a trend for the parliamentary elections seen on Sunday.After the election, the party will discuss the consequences of their poor performance. The Bavarian FDP chairman of the state Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger said: "This is for us a very bitter result that we really need to look at very closely."
Ude pleased with result
Despite the absolute majority of the CSU, the SPD can view their top candidates to Christian Ude be satisfied. "Especially those who have pre says with great pleasure a decline of the SPD, have to admit that we have a turnaround in Bavaria have done, "Ude said on Sunday evening in Munich. According to initial projections, the Social Democrats were able to improve from 18.6 to nearly 21 percent.
Ude also congratulated the winner of the election CSU and its Prime Minister Seehofer. Who had "the proportion of votes of his party can be distributed such that it was enough for an absolute majority of his party," Ude said.
Widespread optimism SPD General Secretary Andrea the rumor . You said ARD: "We are the only opposition party that has risen."
"Now full pot"
To 8.5 percent, according to the projections come the Greens and are thus secure in the parliament. Nevertheless, the reactions at the party at the state level were as federal act. The Green Party leader Claudia Roth told the ARD for the rather poor figures: "We are disappointed, but now full can in the direction of Hesse and parliamentary elections."
And the Free Voters are 8.7 percent there. Clear conceded defeats against the Pirates (2 percent) and the Left (2 percent).
And the Free Voters are 8.7 percent there. Clear conceded defeats against the Pirates (2 percent) and the Left (2 percent).
The Bayern-election is considered important test for the parliamentary election on Sunday.Accordingly, the CDU evaluates the absolute majority for the CSU as a clear signal: "This brings us the necessary momentum again to enter the last week of everything," said the parliamentary secretary of the CDU parliamentary group in the Bundestag , Michael Grosse-Brömer, on ZDF.
Were entitled to vote approximately 9.5 million Bavaria. At midday, had a higher participation than in the 2008 election signed. This is expected to be about 64 percent, according to figures from the evening.
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