Now we shall see who blinks !
http://www.speaker.gov/press-release/boehner-senate-democratic-leaders-senate-must-act-today-house-measure-prevent-shutdown
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-29/house-votes-delay-obamacare-one-year-checks-senate-democrats-shutdown-inevitable
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/28/reid-rejects-house-gops-plan-slams-tea-party-anarchists/
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/house-gop-budget-strategy-government-shutdown-97496.html
How the government functions if a shutdown actually occurs .....
If rogue Republicans do not relent over the budget impasse by October 1, whatever pandemonium happens next will largely be governed by a federal statute you likely have never heard of: the Antideficiency Act. You can call it the "anti-deadbeat" law -- a collection of statutory and administrative provisions, really -- that forbid federal officials from entering into financial obligations for which they do not have funding, like paying the salaries of their employees or buying the things they need to run the government.
and back to the clownsters.....
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/325283-obama-to-republicans-i-will-not-negotiate
Despite Republican attempts to defund his signature healthcare reform law, the president promised that the next phase of the law will kick in on October 1 “no matter what.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/325279-shutdown-grows-more-likely-as-house-gop-plots-next-move
Senate Democrats, however, say Boehner will be responsible for shutting down the government if he makes any changes to the stopgap bill that the Senate passed on Friday.
"I want everyone to listen and to hear: The United States Senate has acted," Reid said on the Senate floor. "This is the only legislation that can avert a government shutdown, and that time is ticking as we speak."
Reid adjourned the Senate until 2 pm Monday, leaving the House to work out the government funding stalemate on its own. Reid’s staff said there are not any talks with Boehner on finding a compromise before the Oct. 1 deadline.
Brent Bozell, the chairman of ForAmerica and a prominent conservative activist, said Boehner would face calls to step down if he accepts a stopgap spending measure that does not defund or delay ObamaCare.
“He’s going to be threatened. If he chooses to side with Barack Obama and with the Democrats in order to fund ObamaCare, then he owns ObamaCare and he can’t get out of that.
“He’ll be as responsible for ObamaCare as Harry Reid,” he said.
Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, said conservative groups around the country on Friday began focusing a national grassroots lobbying campaign on House Republicans.
She said Tea Party Patriots directed 10,000 calls a day to Senate offices while the upper chamber debated a resolution linking the stopgap with a measure defunding ObamaCare.
Martin said there would be growing calls from conservatives around the country for Boehner to resign if he allows the Senate-passed stopgap to receive a vote on the House floor.
“I think if he does that we’ll probably see people across this country in the grassroots calling for a new Speaker,” she said.
The Senate stopgap bill does not include language defunding ObamaCare or prioritizing debt payments in the event that Congress fails to raise the debt limit. Both elements were in the original House bill.
Threats from conservative activists are nothing new for Boehner. In March, Bozell blasted Boehner and other House GOP leaders for failing to deliver on the promises of the 2010 midterm election.
Boehner’s spokesman on Friday said the House would not approve a government funding bill that fails to address the Affordable Care Act.
“The House will take action that reflects the fundamental fact that Americans don’t want a government shutdown and they don’t want the train wreck that is ObamaCare,” said Brendan Buck.
House Republicans will meet at around noon on Saturday in the Capitol to plot their legislative strategy.
“We are reviewing our options and will discuss them with members tomorrow,” said Michael Steel, a spokesman for Boehner.
Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) announced Friday afternoon that he would offer an amendment to the stopgap bill delaying ObamaCare until 2015. The proposal has 61 supporters.
The mounting pressure from Tea Party groups and the tough rhetoric from House Republicans has alarmed senators who say a government shutdown appears more likely.
Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said the situation is more unpredictable now than in 2011, when Congress teetered on the brink of a government shutdown and then a possible national default.
“Reading the tea leaves is more difficult. I think it is going to be difficult on the [funding bill] and it may be even more difficult on the debt ceiling,” Corker said. “I think it’s going to be tough for them.”
Even if congressional leaders avoid a shutdown, they will face another showdown in mid-October over the debt limit. The administration says the nation’s borrowing authority must be increased by Oct. 17.
President Obama on Friday said negotiating with Republicans on the government funding bill would only give them incentive to use the debt-ceiling and any future expiration of government funding as bargaining chips.
“The bill that's designed to avert a government shutdown basically just funds the government for another couple months, so we could be doing this all over again,” he said. “I'm sure the American people are thrilled about that. And that's why we've got to break this cycle.”
Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, said a shutdown is possible despite Senate passage of the stopgap.
“Some of the Democrats think they can provoke a shutdown and they can blame the Republicans for it,” he said.
House Republican leaders might focus now on trying to buy time, possibly by passing a weeklong stopgap.
A senior Senate GOP aide discounted that possibility, however.
“Passing a weeklong CR isn’t going to get you anywhere. Anything that can’t pass now won’t pass in a week or two weeks,” said the aide.
A Senate Democratic aide said Tea Party Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) would not allow Reid to waive procedural rules to approve a one-week stopgap quickly enough to avert a shutdown.
Lee declined to say whether he would grant consent in such a scenario.
“I’d have to think that through under the totality of the circumstances if we had something like that,” he said.
Cruz urged House Republicans to stand firm against any government funding bill that allows the implementation of the Affordable Care Act to move ahead. The law’s open-enrollment period begins Oct. 1.
“I hope and believe that when the House takes this up again House Republicans will continue to stand together on the side of the American people,” he said.
He said if the House returns the stopgap with new language defunding or delaying ObamaCare, “it will be an opportunity for every Senate Republican to come home, to stand for the principles we all share.”
He spoke to reporters shortly after 25 Senate Republicans voted to let the Senate version of the bill reach a final vote.
and....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/obama-stripped-to-skeleton-staff-in-a-government-shutdown.html
( Maybe a skeleton staff of government workers is all that is truly needed - on an ongoing basis ? )
and here's why the government should have a permanent skeleton staff anyway - we're broke folks ....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-11/lawrence-kotlikoff-us-fiscal-gap-200-trillion-our-country-broke
Back to the GOP and Dem clowns show of shows .....
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/28/rep-graves-pushes-amendment-to-delay-obamacare-until-2015/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-27/t-minus-4-days-till-government-shutdown-latest-summary
http://www.speaker.gov/press-release/boehner-senate-democratic-leaders-senate-must-act-today-house-measure-prevent-shutdown
Boehner to Senate Democratic Leaders: Senate Must Act Today on House Measure to Prevent Shutdown
September 29, 2013
Press Release
WASHINGTON, DC -- House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) today issued the following statement after receiving word that the Democratic leaders of the U.S. Senate may wait until as late as Monday afternoon to act on House-passed legislation that would prevent a government shutdown:
“The House worked late into the night Saturday to prevent a government shutdown, and the Senate now must move quickly, today, to do the same.
“If the Senate stalls until Monday afternoon instead of working today, it would be an act of breathtaking arrogance by the Senate Democratic leadership. They will be deliberately bringing the nation to the brink of a government shutdown for the sake of raising taxes on seniors’ pacemakers and children’s hearing aids and plowing ahead with the train wreck that is the president’s health care law. The American people will not stand for it.
“I call on the Democratic leaders of the Senate to act today on the measure passed by the House last night, and urge senators on both sides of the aisle to listen to the American people, who do not want a government shutdown and do not want the president’s health care law.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-29/house-votes-delay-obamacare-one-year-checks-senate-democrats-shutdown-inevitable
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/09/29/shutdown-watch-meet-the-new-bill/
Shutdown watch: Meet the new bill
POSTED AT 9:31 AM ON SEPTEMBER 29, 2013 BY JAZZ SHAW
It took until after midnight, but the House finally passed the next version of the short term funding bill to keep the government open past Tuesday on a 231-192 vote. Of minor interest is the fact that, while the numbers looked similar, two Republicans and two Democrats broke ranks and voted on the other side. On the GOP side, both of the Nay votes came from my neck of the woods in upstate New York, with Chris Gibson and Richard Hanna voting no. For the Democrats, Mike McInytre of North Carolina and Jim Matheson of Utah voted yes.
The bill delays Obamacare and also includes the expected repeal of the medical device tax.
Boehner didn’t speak on the House floor during the debate before the amendments passed.“The House has again passed a plan that reflects the American people’s desire to keep the government running and stop the president’s health care law,” Boehner said in a post-vote statement. Repealing the medical device tax will save jobs and delaying the president’s health care law for all Americans is only fair given the exemptions the White House has granted to big businesses and insurance companies.”He added: “Now that the House has again acted, it’s up to the Senate to pass this bill without delay to stop a government shutdown.”
A new wrinkle was added into the mix by Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, when the Conscience Clause for covered contraception costs was added back into the legislation.
The so-called “conscience clause” would allow employers and insurers to opt out of preventative care for women which they find objectionable on moral or religious grounds. That prominently includes birth control, which most insurers are required to provide for free under current Obamacare rules.With this move, House Republican leaders would give any employer or group health plan the ability to opt out of contraception coverage for the next year. That time frame syncs up with the larger measure in which this is included: a one-year delay of Obamacare provisions not yet in effect.“This is a big deal for the congressman,” Huelskamp’s spokesman, Paul Nelson, told CNN. “He has been pushing for (the conscience clause) since he entered Congress.”
Doug Mataconis described the addition of the conscience clause as, “playing like you have a Royal Flush when you’re really only holding a pair of deuces“, but I don’t think it’s quite that simple. In terms of actually moving to avoid a shutdown, this looks like a fairly obvious admission that somebody is going to have to turn out the lights tomorrow night. It’s not as if Harry Reid is going to be saying, “Well, we weren’t going to agree to any changes to Obamacare, but if you want to bring contraception into the mix, let’s make a deal!” Yes, the Speaker could still take the cut and run option at the last minute with all the Democrats and some moderate Republicans, but would he?
The entire question from the beginning was whether or not the GOP would cave at the 11th hour, either giving in entirely to a “clean” CR with no riders, or finding some minor, face saving provision they could sell to the Democrats which could make it look like they got something before signing off on the arrangement. (The other theoretical possibility was that the Democrats might have offered some significant change to Obamacare just to get things done, but that’s been pretty much a pipe dream since day one.) But it’s starting to feel as if Boehner has realized that a significant segment of his caucus – as well as conservatives around the country in general – are on the edge of open revolt. With that in mind, he may be ready to simply pick this as the hill the GOP will die on (in this particular battle) and prove that the party is willing to fight for what it believes in.
But the looming cloud on the horizon comes with the question of … where does it end? Because even if the government essentially shuts down Monday night, it will end. Something will have to give, otherwise the political damage and public outcry will start building up pretty fast. A shutdown of a few days, as Ed has noted before, probably wouldn’t have much – if any – long term negative effect and might, in fact, bolster the spirits of the conservative base. But if this turns into weeks or months (not that months is even possible) it’s going to be ugly. And no matter how any of the spin doctors portray it, we already know who is going to get the blame.
House Votes To Delay Obamacare By One Year; Checks To Senate Democrats - Shutdown 'Inevitable'?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2013 00:45 -0400
On a rare Saturday session (now Sunday); in a not-too-surprising vote down party lines, the House has voted in favor of the continued-military-funding, medical-device-tax-repealing, Obamacare-delaying continuing resolution that keeps the government paid until December 15th...
- *HOUSE PASSES 231-192 OBAMACARE DELAY IN U.S. SPENDING BILL
- *HOUSE VOTES 423-0 TO FUND TROOPS IF GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN
Now it's off to the Senate and Harry Reid's 'over-my-dead-body' as the White House prepares for Government Shutdown.. (and/or veto) with little (or no) time to cobble together a last-minute deal.
Of course this will be the meme for tomorrow...
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/28/reid-rejects-house-gops-plan-slams-tea-party-anarchists/
Reid rejects House GOP’s plan, slams ‘tea party anarchists’
4:17 PM 09/28/2013
With just over two days remaining to avoid a government shutdown, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rejected House Republicans’ latest plan to fund the government, reiterating his intention not to negotiate on that bill.
Speaker of the House John Boehner announced Saturday morning that the House would attach a one-year delay of Obamacare and a repeal of the medical device tax to the funding bill. The House is expected to vote on that bill some time on Saturday and send it back to the Senate. The new plan comes after the Senate rejected the House’s initial offering, which funded the government in a bill that defunded Obamacare.
Reid has said multiple times that his Democratic Senate will not accept any government funding bill that includes measures affecting the healthcare law. On Saturday, he dug in his heels.
“Today’s vote by House Republicans is pointless,” Reid said in a statement. “As I have said repeatedly, the Senate will reject any Republican attempt to force changes to the Affordable Care Act through a mandatory government funding bill or the debt ceiling. Furthermore, President Obama has stated that he would veto such measures if they ever reached his desk.”
“To be absolutely clear, the Senate will reject both the one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act and the repeal of the medical device tax. After weeks of futile political games from Republicans, we are still at square one: Republicans must decide whether to pass the Senate’s clean CR, or force a Republican government shutdown,” he went on.
“Senate Democrats have shown that we are willing to debate and vote on a wide range of issues, including efforts to improve the Affordable Care Act. We continue to be willing to debate these issues in a calm and rational atmosphere. But the American people will not be extorted by Tea Party anarchists,” he concluded.
At the moment, the Senate is scheduled to come back into session Monday at 2 p.m., at which point just 10 hours will remain to shut down the government.
A Senate Democratic aide told The Daily Caller that as of yet, there was “no change in plans.”
“We will wait and see but it’s unlikely we return before Monday. There’s no point. We are not playing games. House Republicans’ only way out is to pass the Senate’s clean CR or shut down the government,” the aide said.
Government Shutdown Imminent As Republicans Add "Obamacare-Delay" To Funding Bill
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/28/2013 13:37 -0400
It appears investors (CDS markets, VIX, T-Bills anxiety) were on to something as each side in the looming government shutdown debate seems mired in their own belief that the other has more to lose. House Republicans are aiming to hold a vote today on a bill to extend government funding through December 15th and ensuring the military gets paid on any shutdown, but...
- *HOUSE PLAN WOULD DELAY OBAMACARE ONE YEAR, LAWMAKER SAYS
And as the WSJ reports, Harry Reid has already stated that "we are going to accept nothing as it related to Obamacare," before adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon (narrowing the gap for a shutdown-avoidance vote). The shutdown-blame-game has begun as it seems the ball is back in the Senate's court...
- *HOUSE PROPOSAL WOULD FUND GOVERNMENT THROUGH DEC. 15
- *HOUSE PLAN WOULD DELAY OBAMACARE ONE YEAR, LAWMAKER SAYS
- *BOEHNER SAYS WILL BE `UP TO THE SENATE' TO AVOID SHUTDOWN
The strategy keeps House Republicans on a collision course with Senate Democrats. "We are going to accept nothing as it relates to Obamacare,'' Mr. Reid said after the Senate approved its spending plan....Senate Majority Leader Mr. Reid on Friday added to the pressure on the House by adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon, narrowing the window of time for any last-minute legislative volleys between the chambers...."The president is now demanding that we increase the debt limit without engaging in any kind of bipartisan discussions about addressing our spending problem,'' said Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R., Wash.), who gave the address on behalf of Republicans. "He wants to take the easy way out - exactly the kind of foolishness that got us here in the first place."...If the House acts today and sends the measure to the Senate, fresh pressure will fall on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) to call the Senate back in session quickly. Mr. Reid said Friday that the Senate would accept no changes or amendments to the funding bill it approved on Friday. He scheduled the Senate to return Monday afternoon, hard upon the Monday midnight deadline for Congress to come to agreement on a funding plan....The standoff brings the federal government to the brink of a shutdown with little obvious room for resolution. Unlike in previous showdowns, there have been no major negotiations among congressional leaders or with the White House....Mr. Boehner, said: "The House will take action that reflects the fundamental fact that Americans don't want a government shutdown, and they don't want the train wreck that is Obamacare.''If no agreement is reached by midnight Monday, federal agencies will have to stop providing many services and furlough many employees. Services and agency functions deemed essential would continue.If House lawmakers alter the Senate's spending bill, the measure will return to the Senate, where legislation can take days to navigate over procedural hurdles.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/house-gop-budget-strategy-government-shutdown-97496.html
House GOP to attach Obamacare delay to CR
House Republicans will vote to pass a one-year delay of Obamacare in exchange for funding the government, a plan that drastically increases the chances of a government shutdown this Tuesday.
The decision was announced by the GOP leadership in a closed meeting Saturday afternoon, according to sources present. Republicans will also pass a bill to fund U.S. troops if the government shuts down, according to GOP lawmakers. The House’s funding measure will keep the government open until mid December.
Continue Reading
This puts Senate Democrats and the White House at loggerheads with House Republicans, a standoff that could lead to the first government shutdown since 1995.
Senate Democrats passed a bill to fund the government until Nov. 15, but kept intact Obamacare.
“We’ve had enough of the disunity in our party,” Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) told the meeting of House Republicans Saturday afternoon. “The headlines are Republicans fighting Republicans. This will unite us. This protects the people who sent us here from Obamacare.”
House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said it would be the “fastest whip check in history,” as every member raised their hand, saying they would support the bill.
The House is expected to vote Saturday, sources say.
This is just the first round of an entire fall filled with fiscal fights. The debt ceiling must be raised Oct. 17, and Washington will have to tackle government funding again before the new year.
Defunding, delaying and otherwise chipping away at Obamacare has been the centerpiece of the House Republican majority since they took control of the chamber in 2011. Obama has changed some portions of his signature legislative achievement. He has taken unilateral action to delay the mandate that employers provide health insurance to their workers.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has said he would not accept any attempts to delay or defund the law as part of a government-funding bill.
Boehner tried to avoid this fight, and direct angst over Obamacare to the debt ceiling battle, where he thought Obama would want to cut a deal that would include replacing the sequester. He first proposed using the debt ceiling vote as a backstop — something Republicans could look forward to if they didn’t get their way in the CR fight. But the rank-and-file rejected that strategy. Then, leadership sought to have a debt ceiling vote before the one on government funding. Rank-and-file Republicans rejected that as well, saying they wanted to see what the ultimate resolution in the CR battle before committing to raising the debt ceiling.
It’s a small group of conservatives that have tied the hands of Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — just enough Republicans to prevent the leadership from being able to exert its will.
That explains the fits and starts of the past few weeks. Republicans have cycled through several fiscal strategies, all of them proving flawed in the eyes of the conservative base.
How the government functions if a shutdown actually occurs .....
This Weird Law Dictates How Government Shutdowns Work
AP
It's also the law that wisely permits certain "essential" government functions -- like the military and the courts, for example -- to keep operating even in the absence of authorized legislative funding.
Predictably, there aren't many legal experts who have built careers around the Antideficiency Act, but I managed to corral a few. The most important messages they offer are these: 1) It's not just present federal work that's affected by the shutdown, it's future work, too; and 2) shutting down the federal government is terribly wasteful and expensive because of the re-start costs involved.
That's the point made by the acclaimed dean of Antideficiency Act scholars, University of Baltimore Law Professor Charles Tiefer ("For obscure details," he told me, "you've come to the right guy."). It's not just that many federal operations will shut down next week, Tiefer said, it's that "all kinds of planning and preparation for federal activity in the months and weeks to come" will become "increasingly neglected and disjointed if the showdown lasts more than a couple of days." Here's a key passage from the statute:
An officer or employee of the United States Government or of the District of Columbia government may not accept voluntary services for either government or employ personal services exceeding that authorized by law except for emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property ...
As used in this section, the term "emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property" does not include ongoing, regular functions of government the suspension of which would not imminently threaten the safety of human life or the protection of property.
Preparing for the Shutdown
Here is an example of what is happening right now within federal agencies and bureaus. Earlier this week, U.S. District Judge John Bates, a George W. Bush appointee who now is director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, sent an open letter to all departments within the federal judiciary. The letter set forth in detail the protocol for what will (and will not) happen in our nation's courts if as expected the money runs out next week. Bates wrote (emphasis in original):
Here is an example of what is happening right now within federal agencies and bureaus. Earlier this week, U.S. District Judge John Bates, a George W. Bush appointee who now is director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, sent an open letter to all departments within the federal judiciary. The letter set forth in detail the protocol for what will (and will not) happen in our nation's courts if as expected the money runs out next week. Bates wrote (emphasis in original):
If Congress fails to enact a CR by October 1, 2013, most federal entities will have to implement shut-down plans effective immediately. The Judiciary, however, will not shut down immediately. We will continue operations utilizing fees and no-year appropriations for an estimated 10 business days (through approximately October 15, 2013).During these first 10 business days of a lapse in appropriations, the Judiciary will use available fee and no-year balances to pay judges, court employees and FDO employees, and to maintain court and federal defender operations. Courts and FDOs will continue to operate, but funding should be conserved as much as possible by delaying or deferring expenses not critical to the performance of your Constitutional responsibilities.All Judiciary and FDO employees should continue reporting to work and they will be in full-pay status during this period. After the 10-day period, if there is still no appropriation, the Judiciary will operate under terms of the Anti-Deficiency Act, which allows "essential work" to continue during a lapse in appropriations. Among the definitions of "essential work" are powers exercised under the Constitution, which include activities to support the exercise of Article III judicial powers, specifically the resolution of cases.Each court and FDO will determine the court staff, probation and pretrial services officers and FDO staff necessary to support the exercise of Article III judicial powers. Staff performing essential functions will report to work in a non-pay status. Other staff will be furloughed.Staff who are furloughed cannot work voluntarily or be required to work. Staff performing essential functions and working in a non-pay status should expect to be paid once appropriations are enacted; Congress will have to take affirmative action to authorize pay for staff who are furloughed.
The details will be different in each instance, but you can be sure that all over the federal government this week these sorts of letters were being written and sent in preparation for the showdown. Here is the current OMB memo that outlines protocols. Here is a April 2011 White House memo that also adds context. Some workers will simply be sent home. Others will have to work with only the promise of pay. And Congress will have the obligation, moral if not political, to clean up whatever mess it and the White House create in the next few days and weeks.
The History of the Act
"Those who disburse the money are like a saucy boy who knows his grandfather will gratify him, and over-turns the sum allowed him at pleasure," Rep. John Randolph of Virginia said in 1806. The "saucy boy" here was the executive branch, the grandfather Congress. Georgetown University Law ProfessorTimothy Westmoreland, who has a background in congressional politics, wrote via email:
"Those who disburse the money are like a saucy boy who knows his grandfather will gratify him, and over-turns the sum allowed him at pleasure," Rep. John Randolph of Virginia said in 1806. The "saucy boy" here was the executive branch, the grandfather Congress. Georgetown University Law ProfessorTimothy Westmoreland, who has a background in congressional politics, wrote via email:
All civics students learn that the Congress has "the power of the purse." The Constitution gives the Congress the decision about whether to spend money or not. This shows up in Article I of the Constitution, where it says, "No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law." The Executive Branch cannot make a decision on its own to spend money -- and that's clearly what the Framers wanted.That seems fairly straightforward, but almost from the beginning of the Nation, the Executive Branch tried different ways to dodge that fundamental restriction.I've seen references to congressional complaints about this all the way back to John Calhoun in 1816 and Henry Clay in 1819.
Not incidentally, who were these congressional titans complaining about? Presidents James Madison and James Monroe. Westmoreland continues:
The most obvious tactic was for Executive Branch officials to make contracts without already having the money from the Congress. If that happened, the Congress was backed into a corner: a commitment by the U.S. had already been made by the Executive, so the Congress felt it had to make the funds available because of some sense of a moral or good-faith obligation. This was called creating a "coercive deficiency." In the early days, most of this appears to have been done by the military, but that may not be surprising since so much of the early Federal spending was for the military.To take back its control of the spending power, the Congress passed laws just after the Civil War that made such actions illegal. The main one is the Antideficiency Act, which prohibits Executive Branch officials from obligating or spending money before it is given to them by the Congress. It also prohibits these officials from taking money given to them for one purpose and using it for another. There are civil and criminal penalties for violating the law, as well as extensive auditing and reporting requirements.
Westmoreland continues:
A version of this 19th Century statute is still the law. Agencies themselves, Inspectors General, and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) all look into potential violations, and they are found every year. Some of them are simple errors. Some are disputes over bookkeeping rules or over interpreting legislation. Some are relatively small. Others are in the hundreds of millions. In Fiscal 2012, GAO reported 20 violations -- ranging from a $50,000 violation in the National Guard to an $800 million one by the SEC. Civil servants can be disciplined or fired for violating the law. They can be criminally prosecuted for a willful violation, although I don't think anyone has ever been convicted.The Act becomes especially significant when the Congress fails to provide appropriations. At that point, government employees are legally prohibited from spending money, because they haven't been given any money to spend. So an agency head cannot authorize a government employee to come to work; that would be incurring a government obligation without having an appropriation. The law also prohibits accepting voluntary services for the government, so the agency head can't even allow people to volunteer to do their jobs.
To Whom Does the Act Apply?
The act "definitely applies to government employees and officials of the core executive and independent agencies," Harvard Law Professor Howell E. Jackson, a budget and regulatory expert, told me. This means the vast majority of federal workers will be told to go home next week in the absence of a budget deal. Those who get to stay will come from two groups -- one in which federal workers have been explicitly exempted and one in which workers have been deemed to be "essential" through analysis. "It's complicated," Jackson said, "where the lines are drawn and sources of legal authority are not precise."
The act "definitely applies to government employees and officials of the core executive and independent agencies," Harvard Law Professor Howell E. Jackson, a budget and regulatory expert, told me. This means the vast majority of federal workers will be told to go home next week in the absence of a budget deal. Those who get to stay will come from two groups -- one in which federal workers have been explicitly exempted and one in which workers have been deemed to be "essential" through analysis. "It's complicated," Jackson said, "where the lines are drawn and sources of legal authority are not precise."
Perhaps the most interesting example of a "specific exemption," Jackson says, is the Food and Forage Act of 1861 -- near the start of the Civil War. As the title suggests, that law permitted soldiers to graze their horses and take whatever other necessities were required to live on horseback. It's a law that was invoked in a decidedly non-horsey sense during the Vietnam War, again during Operation Desert Shield in Iraq in 1990, and, for a brief time, immediately following the terror attacks of September 11, 2001.
"Federal employees can accept volunteers or go beyond their funding in cases of emergency involving the safety of human life or the protection of property," Westmoreland says. So federal firefighters and law enforcement officials clearly are exempt, Tiefer adds, as are judges presiding over criminal (but not necessarily civil) cases. Moreover, it's the OMB, with help from the Justice Department, that makes the call on who is essential and who is not, and each federal department, as we see above in the judicial example, has formulated its shutdown protocols. Westmoreland writes:
There has been a lot of legal interpretation (including during the Reagan and Clinton Administrations) of what this means. Overall, it has been interpreted narrowly but not rigidly. But the threat to life or property has to be "imminent." Air-traffic controllers and meat inspectors can generally keep working. People writing checks or doing maintenance generally cannot.
Worried about that federal payment that may be coming to you? You may be right to be concerned. Most payments will come, but others won't. As Jackson notes, new Social Security or Medicare checks or applications may not be processed as quickly (or not at all) until funding is restored. But Westmoreland says funding for Social Security doesn't go away on October 1:
There is also another group of activities that are not really an exception to the Act because they actually meet the terms of the Act: programs that already have received an appropriation from the Congress. Most government activities are funded by the Congress for just one year at a time. But some -- like Social Security -- have permanent funding in their statutes. Others may have multi-year funding that will not expire on September 30. Those programs won't shut down, although some of the staff who make the programs work more easily or more efficiently might have to stay home because their salaries are part of the annual spending bill.
So, barring a degree of political bipartisanship that seems increasingly unlikely, a dusty law designed in the 1880s to stop excessive federal spending will be employed next week to guide the government in a dispute over, well, excessive federal spending.
"The irony is that it always costs money to restart them and they typically get their back pay for the days they don't work, the government employees, and they have to catch up on the work that's not done while they are on these involuntary furloughs," Jackson said."So it's a very expensive way to play politics over the fiscal crisis."
and back to the clownsters.....
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/325283-obama-to-republicans-i-will-not-negotiate
Obama to Congress: Pass a budget on time
09/28/13 06:00 AM ET
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The president used his weekly address to the American people to demand that Congress meet its two responsibilities: “pass a budget on time and pay our bills on time.”
Despite Republican attempts to defund his signature healthcare reform law, the president promised that the next phase of the law will kick in on October 1 “no matter what.”
“I will work with anyone who wants to have a serious conversation about our economic future,” Obama said. “But I will not negotiate over Congress’ responsibility to pay the bills it has already racked up. I don’t know how to be more clear about this: no one gets to threaten the full faith and credit of the United States of America just to extract ideological concessions.”
Congress will meet over the weekend to try to iron a deal on a spending bill to keep the government open past Monday, Sept. 30.
Lawmakers are simultaneously working on legislation to extend the debt ceiling beyond $16.7 trillion by Oct. 17, after which the federal government risks defaulting on its debt obligations for the first time in history.
House Republicans are demanding that the healthcare law be defunded before Americans can enroll in the new marketplaces starting on Oct. 1.
Many people will become eligible for federal subsidies to buy insurance on those marketplaces starting in 2014, making Republican efforts to derail the law after that exponentially complicated.
“This Tuesday is an important day for families, businesses, and our economy,” Obama said. “It’s the day a big part of the Affordable Care Act kicks in and tens of millions of Americans will finally have the same chance to buy quality, affordable health care as everyone else.
“It’s also the day that a group of far-right Republicans in Congress might choose to shut down the government and potentially damage the economy just because they don’t like this law.”
Obama outlined benefits of the law that are already in place – such as preventative care without co-pays, drug discounts for seniors, no more lifetime coverage limits and discrimination against children with preexisting conditions, or young adults' ability to stay on their parents’ plan until they turn 26. He invited Americans without insurance to visit HealthCare.gov starting Tuesday to enroll into the new state-based health insurance marketplaces.
“These marketplaces will be open for business on Tuesday, no matter what,” he said.
“The Affordable Care Act is one of the most important things we’ve done as a country in decades to strengthen economic security for the middle class and all who strive to join the middle class. And it is going to work.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/325279-shutdown-grows-more-likely-as-house-gop-plots-next-move
Shutdown grows more likely as House GOP plots next move
09/27/13 06:35 PM ET
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A government shutdown has become increasingly likely as conservatives ramp up pressure on House Republicans to reject a Senate bill restoring funding for ObamaCare.
Conservative activists say Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) credibility is on the line, and warn he will not serve another term as House GOP leader if he agrees to fund the Affordable Care Act along with the rest of government.
Conservative activists say Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) credibility is on the line, and warn he will not serve another term as House GOP leader if he agrees to fund the Affordable Care Act along with the rest of government.
Senate Democrats, however, say Boehner will be responsible for shutting down the government if he makes any changes to the stopgap bill that the Senate passed on Friday.
"I want everyone to listen and to hear: The United States Senate has acted," Reid said on the Senate floor. "This is the only legislation that can avert a government shutdown, and that time is ticking as we speak."
Reid adjourned the Senate until 2 pm Monday, leaving the House to work out the government funding stalemate on its own. Reid’s staff said there are not any talks with Boehner on finding a compromise before the Oct. 1 deadline.
Brent Bozell, the chairman of ForAmerica and a prominent conservative activist, said Boehner would face calls to step down if he accepts a stopgap spending measure that does not defund or delay ObamaCare.
“He’s going to be threatened. If he chooses to side with Barack Obama and with the Democrats in order to fund ObamaCare, then he owns ObamaCare and he can’t get out of that.
“He’ll be as responsible for ObamaCare as Harry Reid,” he said.
Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots, said conservative groups around the country on Friday began focusing a national grassroots lobbying campaign on House Republicans.
She said Tea Party Patriots directed 10,000 calls a day to Senate offices while the upper chamber debated a resolution linking the stopgap with a measure defunding ObamaCare.
Martin said there would be growing calls from conservatives around the country for Boehner to resign if he allows the Senate-passed stopgap to receive a vote on the House floor.
“I think if he does that we’ll probably see people across this country in the grassroots calling for a new Speaker,” she said.
The Senate stopgap bill does not include language defunding ObamaCare or prioritizing debt payments in the event that Congress fails to raise the debt limit. Both elements were in the original House bill.
Threats from conservative activists are nothing new for Boehner. In March, Bozell blasted Boehner and other House GOP leaders for failing to deliver on the promises of the 2010 midterm election.
Boehner’s spokesman on Friday said the House would not approve a government funding bill that fails to address the Affordable Care Act.
“The House will take action that reflects the fundamental fact that Americans don’t want a government shutdown and they don’t want the train wreck that is ObamaCare,” said Brendan Buck.
House Republicans will meet at around noon on Saturday in the Capitol to plot their legislative strategy.
“We are reviewing our options and will discuss them with members tomorrow,” said Michael Steel, a spokesman for Boehner.
Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) announced Friday afternoon that he would offer an amendment to the stopgap bill delaying ObamaCare until 2015. The proposal has 61 supporters.
The mounting pressure from Tea Party groups and the tough rhetoric from House Republicans has alarmed senators who say a government shutdown appears more likely.
Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) said the situation is more unpredictable now than in 2011, when Congress teetered on the brink of a government shutdown and then a possible national default.
“Reading the tea leaves is more difficult. I think it is going to be difficult on the [funding bill] and it may be even more difficult on the debt ceiling,” Corker said. “I think it’s going to be tough for them.”
Even if congressional leaders avoid a shutdown, they will face another showdown in mid-October over the debt limit. The administration says the nation’s borrowing authority must be increased by Oct. 17.
President Obama on Friday said negotiating with Republicans on the government funding bill would only give them incentive to use the debt-ceiling and any future expiration of government funding as bargaining chips.
“The bill that's designed to avert a government shutdown basically just funds the government for another couple months, so we could be doing this all over again,” he said. “I'm sure the American people are thrilled about that. And that's why we've got to break this cycle.”
Sen. Jeff Sessions (Ala.), the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, said a shutdown is possible despite Senate passage of the stopgap.
“Some of the Democrats think they can provoke a shutdown and they can blame the Republicans for it,” he said.
House Republican leaders might focus now on trying to buy time, possibly by passing a weeklong stopgap.
A senior Senate GOP aide discounted that possibility, however.
“Passing a weeklong CR isn’t going to get you anywhere. Anything that can’t pass now won’t pass in a week or two weeks,” said the aide.
A Senate Democratic aide said Tea Party Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) would not allow Reid to waive procedural rules to approve a one-week stopgap quickly enough to avert a shutdown.
Lee declined to say whether he would grant consent in such a scenario.
“I’d have to think that through under the totality of the circumstances if we had something like that,” he said.
Cruz urged House Republicans to stand firm against any government funding bill that allows the implementation of the Affordable Care Act to move ahead. The law’s open-enrollment period begins Oct. 1.
“I hope and believe that when the House takes this up again House Republicans will continue to stand together on the side of the American people,” he said.
He said if the House returns the stopgap with new language defunding or delaying ObamaCare, “it will be an opportunity for every Senate Republican to come home, to stand for the principles we all share.”
He spoke to reporters shortly after 25 Senate Republicans voted to let the Senate version of the bill reach a final vote.
and....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-27/obama-stripped-to-skeleton-staff-in-a-government-shutdown.html
( Maybe a skeleton staff of government workers is all that is truly needed - on an ongoing basis ? )
Obama Stripped to Skeleton Staff in a Government Shutdown
By Roger Runningen & Phil Mattingly - Sep 28, 2013 12:00 AM ET
A U.S. government shutdown means President Barack Obama will have fewer people to cook meals, do the laundry, clean the floors or change the light bulbs, according to a White House contingency plan.
About three-fourths of president’s 1,701-person staff would be sent home. The national security team would be cut back, fewer economists would be tracking the economy and there wouldn’t be as many budget officials to track spending. White House policy decisions on the environment and drug policy might get postponed, as the executive mansion struggles to cope with a shutdown of the government.
“If Congress chooses not to pass a budget by Monday -- the end of the fiscal year -- they will shut down the government, along with many vital services that the American people depend on,” Obama said yesterday in the White House briefing room.
Lawmakers have reached an impasse in their search for compromise legislation to fund the government. The House and Senate have passed different versions of the bill, which must be reconciled and approved by the Oct. 1 start of the new fiscal year or the government would shut down.
The congressional dispute would leave the White House with a bare-bones staff, according to the plan submitted Sept. 26.
The executive office of the president would designate approximately 436 employees as “excepted,” or exempt from furlough to perform their jobs. The remaining 1,265 employees would be sent home.
The president and Vice President Joe Biden are exempt from furlough.
First Day
Work will continue “with a limited number of employees to sustain minimal excepted operations,” according to the plan.
Like other agencies, most White House workers are being directed to work on the first day of the shutdown for about four hours winding down activities, securing and closing computer files before going home.
Top White House aides, political appointees and officials requiring Senate confirmation are permitted to work. Of the total, 438 people work directly for the president. Under a shutdown, 129 could continue working, according to the contingency plan.
Biden, who has a staff of 24, would have had to make do with 12.
Of the 90 people who maintain the president’s family living quarters, only 15 would remain to provide “minimum maintenance and support.”
Contingency Plans
Obama’s national security staff of 66 would be cut to 42. Similar staff cuts would be imposed at the White House Office of Management and Budget, the Council on Environmental Quality, the Council of Economic Advisers and the Office of National Drug Control Policy, which are all part of the president’s executive office.
Agencies throughout the federal government have submitted contingency plans to the budget office to be implemented in the event of a shutdown. It marks the second time in Obama’s presidency this has happened -- many of this year’s plans track closely with preparations put together during a similar scenario in 2011.
and here's why the government should have a permanent skeleton staff anyway - we're broke folks ....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-11/lawrence-kotlikoff-us-fiscal-gap-200-trillion-our-country-broke
Laurence Kotlikoff: "The US Fiscal Gap Is $200 Trillion... Our Country Is broke"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2013 15:28 -0400
- Australia
- Cato Institute
- Congressional Budget Office
- Germany
- Greece
- Gross Domestic Product
- Israel
- Italy
- Japan
- Kyle Bass
- Kyle Bass
- Medicare
- New Zealand
- Norway
- Reality
- Switzerland
- United Kingdom
While it is easy and often enjoyable to distract oneself with daily drudgery such as who will bomb whom (if not so enjoyable for those on the receiving end of said bombs), the key word in the sentence is just one: "distract" and as Kyle Bass pointed out correctly, the best, and most "economy-boosting" of all distractions ends up with the proverbial red button being pushed. Sadly, with an economy which Boston University's Larry Kotlikoff defines as "arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country", there is much to be distrated by and is why we correctly predicted in July that the Syrian false flag event is only weeks or months away (turned out to be precisely one month). So for those who have no desire to prove the axiom that ignorance is bliss, or to have their heads stuck in the sand, here is a must read interview between Goldman's Hugo Scott-Gall and the iconoclast economist who, in a vast minority, calls it like it is.
The highlights:
- I estimate the US fiscal gap at US$200 tn, 17 times the reported US$12 tn in official debt in the hands of the public.And this incorporates this year’s tax increases and spending sequestration. What would it take to come up with US$200 tn in present value? The answer is tax hikes or spending cuts, or a combination of the two, amounting to 10 percent of GDP, starting immediately and continuing indefinitely. To do so via spending cuts, alone, would require an immediate and permanent 36% cut in all non-interest spending. To do so via tax hikes, alone, would need animmediate and permanent 55% increase in all federal taxes. Hence, a description of the fiscal adjustments made over the last year could be “too little too late.” In terms of generational accounting, were we to leave our kids and future descendants to cover the entire fiscal gap, they’d face tax rates over their lifetimes around twice as high as those we face.
- The US is arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country. But Greece, the UK, and Japan are close runner ups. As mentioned, our fiscal gap is 10% of the present value of our future GDP. In Germany it’s around 5%, while Canada, Australia and New Zealand are close to zero. Even Italy's long-term fiscal gap is just half of the US’s, yet Italian government bonds sell at a much lower price than US government bonds simply because people don't understand the pension reforms that Italy has rolled out or that Italy has much better control of its healthcare spending.
- Our country is broke. It’s not broke in 50 years or 30 years or 10 years. It’s broke today. Six decades of take as you go has led us to a precipice. That’s why almost the entire economics profession is talking as one at www.theinformact.org. Economists from all political persuasions are collectively sending our government a warning about what is, effectively, a nuclear economic bomb. I’ve been around economics for a long time. I’ve never seen such a strong response to a proposed Congressional bill. This is the profession sending a statement to the President and Congress that’s not unlike the warning physicists sent via Einstein to Roosevelt about the bomb.
And with that, here is the full interview:
Laurence J. Kotlikoff is a William Fairfield Warren Professor at Boston University, a Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of the Econometric Society, a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and President of Economic Security Planning, Inc., a company specializing in financial planning software.
Hugo Scott-Gall: You argue that the official debts that countries report are economically meaningless numbers. Please explain this?
Larry Kotlikoff: Every dollar the government takes in or pays out can be labelled in economically arbitrary ways. For example, the government can call our social security contributions “taxes” or “official borrowing.” And it can call our social security benefits “transfer payments” or “return of principal or principal plus interest.” There is nothing in the math of economic theory that pins down the government’s word choice and each labelling convention will produce a different reported time path of debt, deficits, taxes, and spending. At their heart, these measures are linguistic and convey nothing about a country’s underlying fiscal policy – only about what the government decides to put on and keep off the books.
Uncle Sam is very powerful, but he has only one set of vocal cords. We are all free to label past, present, and projected future government receipts and outlays any way we want, as long as our labelling convention is internally consistent (e.g., if we label government receipts as borrowing, we need to label other outlays as debt service). Consequently, we can produce any past, current, and projected future measure of the government’s debt and other fiscal quantities. With the right past labelling, we can say the current debt to GDP ratio is miles higher than Rogoff-Reinhart’s critical 90 percent. Or, we can argue that the debt to GDP ratio is hugely negative. The Economics labelling problem tells us that what we measure as the size of standard fiscal variables is language- or frame of reference-dependent. This is fundamentally no different from physics. The measurement of time and distance is not uniquely pinned down by the math. What time you report and how you measure the size of physical objects depends on one’s frame of reference (direction and rate of speed through space) or language, if you will.
Here’s another way to see my point. My mother gets checks from the US Treasury all the time. They all look the same except for their amounts. Some are for social security and some are for holding Treasury bonds. But Uncle Sam is discounting the amounts coming on the Treasuries and including that in his official debt measure, while ignoring the amounts coming for social security benefits. Using economically meaningless fiscal indicators to guide fiscal policy is like driving in NY with a map of LA. If you aren’t careful, you’ll drive into the East River.
Hugo Scott-Gall: If conventional fiscal measures are, as you say, content free, what should we measure?
Larry Kotlikoff: Every dynamic mathematical model of the economy that economists write down (and thousands are being constructed each year) includes what’s called thegovernment’s intertemporal budget constraint. This constraint simply requires that the present value of government outlays, no matter how labelled, equals the present value of government receipts, no matter how labelled. In this over-time government balance sheet, the outlays represent the liabilities and the receipts represent the assets. If the value in the present of the liabilities exceeds the value in the present of the receipts, the government’s balance sheet isn’t balanced, with the difference between the liabilities and assets call the fiscal gap. The fiscal gap doesn’t suffer from an economics labelling problem for a simple reason - it puts everything on the books. The fiscal gap is the true measure of a government’s debt. And once one determines its size, one can assess the impact on our children of paying it off if it’s all dumped into their laps. This is part of a companion analysis, called Generational Accounting, which I initiated in the late 80s together with my co-author, UC Berkeley economist Alan Auerbach and my then student, Jagaadesh Gokhale (now at the Cato Institute).
Hugo Scott-Gall: How big is the US fiscal gap and what does US generational accounting show?
Larry Kotlikoff: The CBO will release its 2013 long-term fiscal projection, called the Alternative Fiscal Forecast (an alternative to the Extended Budget Forecast produced for Congress) this Fall. But I estimate the US fiscal gap at US$200 tn, 17 times the reported US$12 tn in official debt in the hands of the public. And this incorporates this year’s tax increases and spending sequestration. What would it take to come up with US$200 tn in present value? The answer is tax hikes or spending cuts, or a combination of the two, amounting to 10 percent of GDP, starting immediately and continuing indefinitely. To do so via spending cuts, alone, would require an immediate and permanent 36% cut in all non-interest spending. To do so via tax hikes, alone, would need an immediate and permanent 55% increase in all federal taxes. Hence, a description of the fiscal adjustments made over the last year could be “too little too late.” In terms of generational accounting, were we to leave our kids and future descendants to cover the entire fiscal gap, they’d face tax rates over their lifetimes around twice as high as those we face.
Hugo Scott-Gall: How do we get better fiscal book keeping?
Larry Kotlikoff: At my encouragement and that of The Can Kicks Back – a non-profit in DC run by twenty-somethings fighting for generational equity, Senators Kaine and Coons – two Democrats – and Senators Thune and Portman – two Republicans – have just co-introduced THE INFORM ACT. The Bill, which I largely drafted in consultation with Alan Auerbach, will require three agencies in the US government (the CBO, the OMB and the GAO) to do fiscal gap analysis as well as generational accounting on an ongoing basis. To date, 12 Nobel Laureates in economics, over 500 of the nation’s other leading economists, George Shultz, the Former Secretary of the Treasury, State and Labor and the OMB Director, and other prominent government officials, and thousands of non-economists have endorsed the bill atwww.theinformact.org. I’m hoping everyone in the country will go to the site, endorse the bill, and spread the word.
Hugo Scott-Gall: How do you recommend solving this issue?
Larry Kotlikoff: Measuring our fiscal gap and disclosing its implications for ourselves and our children is just step one in addressing our fiscal issues. What’s really needed is the adoption of radical, but generationally fair reforms to our tax, social security, and healthcare system. Maintaining the status quo is not an option. When a patient needs heart surgery, radical surgery is often the safe option. America needs radical policy surgery. I lay out postcard length reforms of out tax, social security, healthcare, and banking systems atwww.thepurpleplans.org. Many of these plans have been endorsed by the economics’ profession’s top economists.
Let me lay out just one of these plans - the Purple Health Plan. The costs of Medicare, Medicaid, the new health exchanges, and employer-paid healthcare (here the costs entail loss of revenue because premiums are exempt from taxes) constitute 60% of the fiscal gap. The Purple Health Plan would eliminate these four systems and start with a clean slate. Under the plan, each US citizen gets a voucher each year, the size of which is determined by his pre-existing medical condition. The voucher is used to purchase, in full, the Basic Health Plan from an insurance provider. The Basic Health Plan’s coverages are established by a panel of doctors subject to the constraint that the costs of all the vouchers never exceeds 10% of GDP. Those who could afford it would be free to buy supplemental policies. No insurer could turn anyone away, but since each voucher is individually rated, insurers would have no incentive to cheery pick. This simple reform, in essence, the healthcare system of Germany, Israel, Holland, Switzerland, and Japan, retains private provision, turns the Basic Health Plan into a commodity with insurance providers competing to attract and retain participants. A very large share – roughly 60% – of America’s fiscal gap can be eliminated via this reform alone. Adopting the other purple plans would eliminate the rest of the fiscal gap without visiting untoward hardship on anyone.
Hugo Scott-Gall: Will society be able to hold current demographic fiscal systems together where young people are heavily taxed...
Larry Kotlikoff: Our country is broke. It’s not broke in 50 years or 30 years or 10 years. It’s broke today. Six decades of take as you go has led us to a precipice. That’s why almost the entire economics profession is talking as one atwww.theinformact.org. Economists from all political persuasions are collectively sending our government a warning about what is, effectively, a nuclear economic bomb. I’ve been around economics for a long time. I’ve never seen such a strong response to a proposed Congressional bill. This is the profession sending a statement to the President and Congress that’s not unlike the warning physicists sent via Einstein to Roosevelt about the bomb.
Hugo Scott-Gall: What does all of this mean for overall consumption and savings in the US?
Larry Kotlikoff: Our huge off-the-books fiscal problems were created as a result of the take-as-you-go policies of the post war periods that passed on benefits to older people at the expense of younger people. This systematic intergenerational redistribution produced a massive increase in the absolute and relative consumption of the elderly and a massive decline in our net national saving rate, from 15% in 1950 to 1% now. The ratio of the consumption of a 70-year-old compared to a 35-year-old is about 2.5 times larger today than it was back in 1950. And the reason they’re consuming so much more is that they get the entire set of benefits, from healthcare and social security to tax cuts. National saving finances most domestic investment, so as we’re saving next to nothing means we’re also investing next to nothing. Last year’s net domestic investment rate was 5%, only a third of the 1950 level. And less domestic investment means slower real wage growth, as workers have less capital with which to operate. Finally, since we Americans aren’t saving, we can’t invest in our country. So $4 out of every $5 of investment in the US is now by foreigners. In the late 1970s, Alan Auerbach and I pioneered the development of large-scale computable general equilibrium life-cycle models that we could simulate on a computer. In this and subsequent research, we were able to simulate the impact of take-as-you-go fiscal policy. What we see from these increasingly sophisticated computer models matches exactly what you see in the country, less saving, less investment, less growth, and stagnant wages. While generational policy is not the sole driver of post-war secular economic trends, it’s likely the biggest.
Hugo Scott-Gall: How do other countries compare to the US when you look at their fiscal gaps?
Larry Kotlikoff: The US is arguably in worst fiscal shape than any other developed country. But Greece, the UK, and Japan are close runner ups. As mentioned, our fiscal gap is 10% of the present value of our future GDP. In Germany it’s around 5%, while Canada, Australia and New Zealand are close to zero. Even Italy's long-term fiscal gap is just half of the US’s, yet Italian government bonds sell at a much lower price than US government bonds simply because people don't understand the pension reforms that Italy has rolled out or that Italy has much better control of its healthcare spending.
The case of Norway is also very interesting. I conducted generational accounting with a Norwegian economist named Erling Steigum back in the mid-90s, which proved that while Norway was reporting a huge surplus because of how it was labelling its transactions, in reality the country was spending at far too high a rate. To its credit, the government went ahead and continued carrying out this analysis on a regular basis, and as a result, created a generational trust fund, where some of the North Sea oil revenue is set aside for future generations. This has left them in a much better position today. Chile, another resource-dominated economy, has also got a similar trust fund in effect. The Canadians have also been very careful about their long-term liabilities. So, some countries are acting more responsibly.
Hugo Scott-Gall: Have you considered the impact of fewer jobs, driven by rising automation, in your analysis?
Larry Kotlikoff: Automation and the structural loss of jobs is a very important issue. In fact, Jeff Sachs and I have together written about the implications of smart machines, machines that today can substitute almost perfectly, if not more than perfectly for people, and constitute, effectively, competing robots. We’re not far from the day when machines will drive cars too. While that sounds great, the other side of the coin is that younger people are earning less and saving less, and so, they bring much less wealth into old age than previous generations did. Owing to this vicious cycle, these youngsters, who as a group are not the prime owners of capital, aren't going to reap the benefits from this new technology. The beneficiaries are instead going to be a small number of people who are either the inventors, or older people who have the capital to help get the invented technology in place. So, we’re going to see wealth redistributed further, from young workers to older people, with yet direr implications for national saving, domestic investment and growth. Indeed, technological change can, through these general equilibrium feedback effects, end up making all of society worse off in the long run, unless one is careful to redistribute to the young losers from the old winners.
Back to the GOP and Dem clowns show of shows .....
Obama slams Republican threats to 'burn the house down'
09/27/13 05:03 PM ET
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President Obama on Friday implored House Republicans to fund the government, criticizing them for threatening "to burn the house down simply because you haven't gotten 100 percent of your way."
In comments from the White House press briefing room, Obama reiterated he would not negotiate on the debt ceiling or relent to GOP demands to delay or defund his healthcare law in exchange for funding the government.
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/28/rep-graves-pushes-amendment-to-delay-obamacare-until-2015/
Republican Rep. Tom Graves announced an amendment to his budget resolution Friday that will delay Obamacare until 2015.
“A simple and reasonable way to ensure fairness for all is to provide every American the same one-year Obamacare delay that President Obama provided for businesses and others,” Graves said in a statement Friday.
Graves will speak on behalf of his idea at the House Republican conference meeting Saturday at noon at the U.S. Capitol, which will stress the goal of unifying the conference in the aftermath of inter-party Republican squabbling in the Senate between Sen. Ted Cruz and others.
President Obama already delayed Obamacare’s unpopular employer mandate until 2015, prompting calls for the law’s individual mandate to be dealt with the same way.
Graves has been in close communication with GOP leadership during his budget fight, but his “Fairness Amendment’s” chances appear slim against a Democratic-controlled Senate. If the conference meeting adopts his amendment, it will go the House Rules Committee.
The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed Graves’ Security, Stability, and Fairness Resolution, which will fund the federal government in fiscal year 2014 without funding Obamacare. However, the Democratic-controlled Senate voted Friday to strip out the resolution’s Obamacare-defunding language as the Senate moves forward with a vote on the bill just days before the current continuing resolution expires September 30.
So Graves responded in kind.
“Our amendment rejects the Washington-style special treatment for the privileged few and demands fairness for all. This approach was developed over several meetings with House Republicans, with a goal of keeping our conference unified,” Graves said.
Graves’ “Fairness Amendment” already has the support of 61 House Republicans.
Despite rhetoric from the Obama administration and the Washington media accusing Republicans of being unwilling to compromise, the new Republican-supported delay actually has bipartisan support.
Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin came out in support this week of a one-year individual mandate delay, saying, “There’s no way I could not vote for it. It’s very reasonable and sensible.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-27/t-minus-4-days-till-government-shutdown-latest-summary
T-Minus 4 Days Till Government Shutdown: The Latest Summary
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/27/2013 16:55 -0400
The GOP Thinks Obama Is Bluffing
Republicans in the House remain totally intransigent on the debt ceiling.
http://www3.blogs.rollcall.com/wgdb/senate-votes-to-keep-obamacare-funded-sends-cr-back-to-house/
and...
With government shutdown day (now in 3-D IMAX) just four days away, some are unsure what the latest developments are in the fluid and rapidly shifting landscape of Capitol Hill. For their benefit, here is a pithy but comprehensive summary of where we stand currently.
- Latest news about the debate in Washington over the U.S. federal budget and the debt ceiling:
- Senate adjourns until Monday after passing a clean stopgap spending bill to send the measure back to the House void of any language to defund Obamacare
- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid urges House Speaker John Boehner to bring the bill as-is to the House floor for a vote
- Obama says House GOP should follow Senate’s example and act responsibly, rather than acting to appease Tea Party
- House Republicans set a noon meeting for tomorrow with vote likely tomorrow or Sunday; GOP newcomers want to push plan delaying Obamacare 1-yr and send CR back to Senate
- In case of govt shutdown, Labor Dept says it will issue jobless claims data, SEC says EDGAR system and crucial enforcement will continue, Treasury says it will operate debt programs and manage cash, USPTO says it will stay open "a few weeks"
- Commerce Dept says it won’t issue economic data in case of shutdown
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/359696/gop-thinks-obama-bluffing-jonathan-strong
Republicans in the House remain totally intransigent on the debt ceiling.
Comments
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House Republicans are heading into a showdown with Obama over the debt ceiling, convinced that they have the upper hand politically and will be able to force the president to capitulate.
The president vows he won’t negotiate with Republicans over the issue at all. But, one GOP aide contends, “He thinks he’s in a happy place right now, but it’s going to quickly turn into a bad place.”
David Winston, a pollster for House Republicans, explained that Obama’s position is as dangerous to him as shutting the government down is to the GOP.
“When the president stands up and says ‘I will not negotiate,’ that’s not particularly tenable either. . . . People look at the debt ceiling as, ‘If we’re that broke, why are we asking to be able to put more money on the credit card?’” he told me.
Senior GOP lawmakers are banking on receiving modest support for the debt-ceiling bill from vulnerable Democrats, which will help put the heat on Obama. That will combine with the well-known concerns that many Democrats have about the disastrous Obamacare roll-out. (Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia came out in favor of delaying the individual mandate Wednesday morning.)
“The best thing we can do to turn up the heat on the president — and Senate Democrats — is to pass a House bill that couples the debt limit with popular spending cuts and reforms to get our economy going again and create jobs,” said Michael Steel, Boehner’s spokesman.
But Democrats are certainly talking a big game. In a number of interviews with senior lawmakers and key aides on the left side of the aisle, they too said they think their adversaries will cave.
President Obama reiterated today that he refuses to negotiate over the debt ceiling, ripping the GOP at a campaign-style rally for trying to “blackmail” him. One of his top aides said on CNN that he won’t negotiate with “people with a bomb strapped to their chest,” and the president’s top pollster gave an interview saying Republicans are “deluding” themselves in thinking their tactic will work.
House Democratic whip Steny Hoyer, taking questions while walking down a Capitol staircase, stopped to deliver the point as he grew visibly angry.
“They have a responsibility to their country,” Hoyer told me, wagging his finger. “They have a responsibility to their constituents and their children. They are damaging the country and the public ought to make them pay a price,” he added.
At a meeting last night with House Democrats, top White House aide Rob Nabors assured Democrats that the president will refuse to budge.
“Rob Nabors underscored it. And [White House chief of staff] Dennis [McDonough] has supported that. The position of the White House is they will not negotiate over the debt ceiling. I don’t think they should, and I hope they won’t,” Representative Jim Moran, a senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, tells me.
“There are more than 100 million people who would lose some form of benefit on Day One if the government can’t pay its bills, and of course it would cause chaos internationally in the financial markets,” Moran says.
“They can’t do that. And if they do, I think there will be repercussions. If we were Machiavellian we would be hoping they would be that crazy,” he adds.
Senior GOP lawmakers are banking on receiving modest support for the debt-ceiling bill from vulnerable Democrats, which will help put the heat on Obama. That will combine with the well-known concerns that many Democrats have about the disastrous Obamacare roll-out. (Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia came out in favor of delaying the individual mandate Wednesday morning.)
“The best thing we can do to turn up the heat on the president — and Senate Democrats — is to pass a House bill that couples the debt limit with popular spending cuts and reforms to get our economy going again and create jobs,” said Michael Steel, Boehner’s spokesman.
But Democrats are certainly talking a big game. In a number of interviews with senior lawmakers and key aides on the left side of the aisle, they too said they think their adversaries will cave.
President Obama reiterated today that he refuses to negotiate over the debt ceiling, ripping the GOP at a campaign-style rally for trying to “blackmail” him. One of his top aides said on CNN that he won’t negotiate with “people with a bomb strapped to their chest,” and the president’s top pollster gave an interview saying Republicans are “deluding” themselves in thinking their tactic will work.
House Democratic whip Steny Hoyer, taking questions while walking down a Capitol staircase, stopped to deliver the point as he grew visibly angry.
“They have a responsibility to their country,” Hoyer told me, wagging his finger. “They have a responsibility to their constituents and their children. They are damaging the country and the public ought to make them pay a price,” he added.
At a meeting last night with House Democrats, top White House aide Rob Nabors assured Democrats that the president will refuse to budge.
“Rob Nabors underscored it. And [White House chief of staff] Dennis [McDonough] has supported that. The position of the White House is they will not negotiate over the debt ceiling. I don’t think they should, and I hope they won’t,” Representative Jim Moran, a senior Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, tells me.
“There are more than 100 million people who would lose some form of benefit on Day One if the government can’t pay its bills, and of course it would cause chaos internationally in the financial markets,” Moran says.
“They can’t do that. And if they do, I think there will be repercussions. If we were Machiavellian we would be hoping they would be that crazy,” he adds.
Capitol Hill is still consumed with small questions: What exact form will the CR take? How could Ted Cruz stand so long without going to the bathroom?
But no one seems to have an answer for how Republicans and Democrats will bridge the massive chasm between their positions on the debt ceiling, a far more weighty issue than a short government shutdown.
The Democrats’ position is at odds with recent history. Obama has previously negotiated over the issue, for one.
And the notion that House Republicans will pass a “clean” debt ceiling bill is pure fantasy.
The current bill House leadership has put together to garner the necessary votes to pass it on the floor with only Republican support is breathtaking in its scope, combining a one-year Obamacare delay, tax-reform instructions, entitlement reforms, and a grab bag of controversial anti-regulatory bills.
And it still ran into significant resistance from the right flank of Speaker John Boehner’s conference for not containing enough spending cuts.
At a Republican Study Committee meeting, Representative Tom Price of Georgia, a former chairman of the group, delivered a passionate defense of the plan, as did Majority Leader Eric Cantor. But Texas representative Joe Barton led dissenters who argued it didn’t focus enough on reducing spending of entitlement programs in line with the “Williamsburg Accord,” an agreement reached between Boehner and conservatives at the GOP’s retreat last January, which extended the debt ceiling temporarily.
The current bill House leadership has put together to garner the necessary votes to pass it on the floor with only Republican support is breathtaking in its scope, combining a one-year Obamacare delay, tax-reform instructions, entitlement reforms, and a grab bag of controversial anti-regulatory bills.
And it still ran into significant resistance from the right flank of Speaker John Boehner’s conference for not containing enough spending cuts.
At a Republican Study Committee meeting, Representative Tom Price of Georgia, a former chairman of the group, delivered a passionate defense of the plan, as did Majority Leader Eric Cantor. But Texas representative Joe Barton led dissenters who argued it didn’t focus enough on reducing spending of entitlement programs in line with the “Williamsburg Accord,” an agreement reached between Boehner and conservatives at the GOP’s retreat last January, which extended the debt ceiling temporarily.
Other conservatives are resisting the bill, for now, because they want to see the CR fight play out, not wanting to interfere with Senator Ted Cruz’s battle in the upper chamber.
There were signs of hope for the bill. Representative Michele Bachmann, for instance, who has never once voted for a debt-ceiling increase, told me she would support it. But the fact that even the current bill is something of a lift speaks volumes.
Strangely, neither Republicans nor Democrats seem to be particularly concerned.
“Don’t overreact. Don’t get too nervous. When I get nervous, I’ll let you know,” said one senior GOP member.
Hoyer says that 190 House Democrats are ready to vote for a clean debt-ceiling bill. “That means the Republicans only need 28 responsible people on their side of the aisle to vote,” he says.
That’s true, but it would also likely bring about the end of Boehner’s tenure as speaker, making him unlikely to opt for it.
Both Republicans and Democrats have said publicly there are zero conversations between the two parties taking place behind the scenes to resolve the issue.
It’s a high-stakes blinking contest both sides think they can win.
and....
Senate Votes to Keep Obamacare Funded, Sends CR Back to House
Posted at 1:49 p.m. today
The Senate sent a stopgap spending bill back to the House Friday, after a party-line vote to strip out language that would have cut off funding to the Affordable Care Act.
The House is expected to take up the measure as soon as Saturday, but it is not yet clear how Speaker John A. Boehner, R-Ohio, would get either the “clean” continuing resolution passed by the Senate or another amended version approved by his restive conference. Boehnerindicated Thursday that he intended to change the Senate bill and send it back to that chamber, prompting Senate Democrats to warn that such an action would make a government shutdown on Oct. 1 almost inevitable.
Senate passage of the bill occurred as expected. First, 25 Republicans joined all members of the Democratic caucus in voting to limit debate on the measure — thereby killing an attempted filibuster by Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Mike Lee, R-Utah, and their allies. Sixty votes were needed. The final vote was 79-19; two Republicans did not vote.
Cruz had attempted to shame Senate Republicans into blocking the stopgap measure, arguing for 21 hours on the Senate floor Tuesday into Wednesday that filibustering was the only way to prevent Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., from eliminating the House provision to defund Obamacare.
But many Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., rejected Cruz’s argument, saying the Texas firebrand was attempting to get Republicans to vote against a bill they actually supported. Additionally, they argued that filibustering the bill would only end up shutting the government down while Obamacare would remain funded through mandatory spending.
The vote to limit debate, or invoke cloture, occurred before the vote to strip the Obamacare defunding provision, which was key to those Republicans’ calculations. All five members of the GOP leadership voted to cut off debate on the bill.
The Senate also overcame a 60-vote threshold on a vote to waive budget points of order against the bill. Again, several Republicans joined Democrats to leap that hurdle in the 68-30 vote.
But Democrats shouldered the burden in stripping language to defund the 2010 health care law. In the 54-44 vote — which only needed a simple majority to prevail — all Republicans voted to keep the House language.
The Senate then voted, 54-44, to send the bill back to the House. Again, only a simple majority was needed.
House GOP leaders have been scrambling for days to find a plan that would get them to 218 votes, and without any sort of health care language, they might not be able to pass a bill without Democratic help. Sources say the GOP leadership team has tried to impress upon rank-and-file members that they would be blamed in the event of the shutdown, but so far that effort has not helped.
In the Senate, a rift between the majority of the caucus and Cruz and Lee blew out into the open Thursday, with Lee, Cruz and Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., hashing it out on the floor. Corker tried to create separation between the GOP conference and the two tea party members, saying that they were the only ones keeping a bill from being dispatched to the House, despite the urging of House leaders to send legislation as soon as possible.
and...
http://washingtonexaminer.com/john-boehner-house-gop-wont-ok-senates-government-funding-bill/article/2536432
John Boehner: House GOP won't OK Senate's government funding bill
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Thursday that his Republican majority would not support the government funding bill that the Democratic Senate is expected to send back to them this weekend.
The Senate is debating legislation approved a week ago by the House that ensured the government doesn't shut down on Oct. 1 but also eliminated funding for Obamacare. The Democratic chamber is set to restore Affordable Care Act funding in the bill and send it back to the House. Boehner made clear, though, that the GOP is unlikely to approve the measure as Democrats rewrote it, despite the risk of the government shutting down Tuesday without it.
“I've made it clear now, for months and months and months: We have no interest in seeing a government shutdown,” Boehner said.
Boehner and his leadership team spoke to reporters Thursday following a closed-door meeting at which House Republicans discussed what their next steps should be on the government spending bill and separate but equally urgent legislation needed to raise the nation's debt limit. Despite claims that the GOP didn't want to shut down the government, Boehner declined to elaborate on what amendments Republicans might attach to the government funding bill they receive from the Senate.
Republicans are mulling several options, including another attempt at defunding President Obama’s health care law and a provision that would eliminate the employer health insurance contribution now given to lawmakers and their staff.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are moving ahead with legislation that would raise the federal borrowing limit, and could vote on it this weekend. The bill would include a one-year delay in the implementation of Obamacare; approval of the Keystone XL pipeline; changes to the tax code; spending cuts and other government reform measures.
Republicans sources said the leadership feels there is strong enough support for a debt ceiling bill among House Republicans to move ahead with this legislation, which probably would fail if it depended on Democratic votes to pass. No vote has been scheduled yet.
Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Ga., said Republicans probably have the 218 votes they need to pass the debt ceiling measure, though lawmakers are entangled for now in a more immediate crisis over a potential government shutdown.
"It's better to be proactive on the debit limit than wait to the final 48 hours," he said. "It's the right thing to do discussing it now."
Obama said he will not negotiate over the debt ceiling, but House Republicans hope that polls showing public opposition to the president's approach will force him to the table.
“We call on the president now, to sit down with us — [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid [D-Nev.] to sit down with us — and let’s solve the problem,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said.
Kingston said he believes Obama eventually will reach out to Congress to hammer out a compromise on the debt limit.
"All presidents negotiate on the debt ceiling," Kingston said. "Debt ceilings are traditional triggers for negotiations, and I think the president will put demagoguery aside and start talking."
Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, R-Mo., said the debt ceiling negotiations offer a better opportunity to attack Obamacare than the government funding bill did because "the American people believe that they don't want to shut the government down over Obamacare funding."
"They would be willing to do the fight with regards to the debt limit," he said. "That's where I think public opinion is, that's where our constituents are, and that's where we need to be."