German Elections update.....
I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable "Grand Coalition" is theoretically possible three ways.
Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%
Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%
Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%
Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.
There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.
One More Merkel Snag
The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.
A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority.
A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.
Election Not Over
With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.
Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.
Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.
Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-polling-companies-under-fire-for-waning-reliability-of-data-a-920693.html
Elections are supposed to be the pollster's bread and butter, but survey groups in Germany have come under fire in recent years for providing what critics say is an inaccurate picture of voter intentions. And, with this year's vote just two weeks away, it is a lesson that is foremost in Merkel's mind.
"The experience of the past serves as a warning to say that good opinion poll numbers … aren't a guarantee of a good election result," said Hermann Gröhe, general secretary for Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), at a recent press conference.
Changing Landscape
Why, though, have German political surveys become so unreliable? Polling companies themselves are quick to place the blame elsewhere. "It's not about having faith in the polls. It's about understanding that they are nothing more than a snapshot of the increasingly fickle political mood," says Andrea Wolf of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the group which conducts election polls for German public broadcaster ZDF. "We cannot account for the increasing number of voters who make decisions at the very last minute, and the fluctuating results reflect that."
She might have a point. Pollsters say that the share of German voters who make up their minds shortly before casting their ballots -- some even on their way to the polling station -- has risen. At the end of August, one study found that fully 38 percent remained undecided, a number which provides plenty of room for pollsters to get it wrong.
But that's not all. Political apathy has been on the rise for some years now in Germany, reflected in falling turnout numbers. At just below 71 percent, turnout in 2009 was the lowest ever. Political pundits in the country say that one side effect of such apathy is eroding political party loyalty -- and the increasing liklihood that voters will change their minds at the last minute.
Finally, Germany's political landscape has become much more complicated in recent years. It used to be that the CDU and the center-left Social Democrats would dominate elections at both the regional and national level -- with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) often serving as kingmaker. Later, the Greens and then the Left Party joined the fray.
Now, suddenly, two new mini-parties have emerged and threatened to inject an unprecedented degree of unpredictability into this year's election. Neither of the two newcomers -- the Pirate Party and the anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) -- are currently projected to receive enough votes to leap the five-percent hurdle required for Bundestag representation.
But do we know that for sure? The standard margin of error on political polls, according to Forsa's chief political analyst Peter Matuschek, is two to three percentage points. That means that the strength of small parties in particular -- those hovering around the 5 percent level -- may be grossly misrepresented.
'Unpredictable Political Mood'
Furthermore, Matuschek adds, there is a large number of people whose real voting intentions are impossible to assess. "Interviewees may be embarrassed about voting for fringe parties -- they might even refuse to speak to us," he says. "There are dozens of factors that can skew the data gathering process, most of which are related to the country's unpredictable political mood."
In recent speeches, Merkel has warned supporters that they may experience a "rude awakening" if they place too much faith in election polls. It is a warning that belies her currently comfortable lead in the polls, with a survey released on Sunday showing that 40 percent support her conservatives against 25 percent for the Social Democrats. But she has learned just how tenuous such a lead might be.
So too has the German media. In a surprise move, ZDF last month announced its intention to publish a poll on September 19, just three days before the election. Though the German government does not place an official ban on polls on the eve of election day, the country's public broadcasters and some of its newspapers have until now adhered to an unwritten agreement that polls conducted within a 10-day period before the election should remain confidential.
"The ZDF's move is the ultimate sign that voter behavior in Germany has shifted irrevocably," says Wolf. "Others will no doubt follow suit. If the media really want to capture voter intention, they have no choice but to report data gathered just before the election."
Greece needing maybe two more bailouts - ho does the German voter take this news ?
http://business.time.com/2013/09/11/one-or-two-more-greece-bailouts-likely/
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2013 11:27 -0400
Tuesday, September 10, 2013 2:43 PM
Latest Polls Not Looking Good For Merkel, 12 Days Before election
The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel.
Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:
Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:
- CDU/CSU - 39%
- SPD - 28%
- Grüne (Greens) - 11%
- Die Linke (Left) - 8%
- FDP - 4%
- AfD - 3%
- Pirate - 3%
I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable "Grand Coalition" is theoretically possible three ways.
Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%
- SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
- CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" with Merkel)
- CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" without Merkel)
Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%
- CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
- CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)
Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5%
- CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)
Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.
There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.
One More Merkel Snag
The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.
A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority.
A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.
Election Not Over
With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.
Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.
Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.
Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-polling-companies-under-fire-for-waning-reliability-of-data-a-920693.html
It was almost a disaster for Angela Merkel. In 2005, her conservatives enjoyed a robust lead of 21 percentage points in the public opinion polls that spring. Just days before the autumn election, it was still at a seemingly safe five percentage points. But on election night, her numerical advantage vanished almost entirely, with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats climbing to within a single point.
It was a close call -- and it wasn't the only time that public opinion polls haveoverestimated Merkel's strength. In 2009, her survey lead once again failed to translate into election results, with her conservatives managing to hold onto the Chancellery despite their worst showing since 1949.
Elections are supposed to be the pollster's bread and butter, but survey groups in Germany have come under fire in recent years for providing what critics say is an inaccurate picture of voter intentions. And, with this year's vote just two weeks away, it is a lesson that is foremost in Merkel's mind.
"The experience of the past serves as a warning to say that good opinion poll numbers … aren't a guarantee of a good election result," said Hermann Gröhe, general secretary for Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), at a recent press conference.
Changing Landscape
Why, though, have German political surveys become so unreliable? Polling companies themselves are quick to place the blame elsewhere. "It's not about having faith in the polls. It's about understanding that they are nothing more than a snapshot of the increasingly fickle political mood," says Andrea Wolf of Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the group which conducts election polls for German public broadcaster ZDF. "We cannot account for the increasing number of voters who make decisions at the very last minute, and the fluctuating results reflect that."
She might have a point. Pollsters say that the share of German voters who make up their minds shortly before casting their ballots -- some even on their way to the polling station -- has risen. At the end of August, one study found that fully 38 percent remained undecided, a number which provides plenty of room for pollsters to get it wrong.
But that's not all. Political apathy has been on the rise for some years now in Germany, reflected in falling turnout numbers. At just below 71 percent, turnout in 2009 was the lowest ever. Political pundits in the country say that one side effect of such apathy is eroding political party loyalty -- and the increasing liklihood that voters will change their minds at the last minute.
Finally, Germany's political landscape has become much more complicated in recent years. It used to be that the CDU and the center-left Social Democrats would dominate elections at both the regional and national level -- with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) often serving as kingmaker. Later, the Greens and then the Left Party joined the fray.
Now, suddenly, two new mini-parties have emerged and threatened to inject an unprecedented degree of unpredictability into this year's election. Neither of the two newcomers -- the Pirate Party and the anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) -- are currently projected to receive enough votes to leap the five-percent hurdle required for Bundestag representation.
But do we know that for sure? The standard margin of error on political polls, according to Forsa's chief political analyst Peter Matuschek, is two to three percentage points. That means that the strength of small parties in particular -- those hovering around the 5 percent level -- may be grossly misrepresented.
'Unpredictable Political Mood'
Furthermore, Matuschek adds, there is a large number of people whose real voting intentions are impossible to assess. "Interviewees may be embarrassed about voting for fringe parties -- they might even refuse to speak to us," he says. "There are dozens of factors that can skew the data gathering process, most of which are related to the country's unpredictable political mood."
So too has the German media. In a surprise move, ZDF last month announced its intention to publish a poll on September 19, just three days before the election. Though the German government does not place an official ban on polls on the eve of election day, the country's public broadcasters and some of its newspapers have until now adhered to an unwritten agreement that polls conducted within a 10-day period before the election should remain confidential.
"The ZDF's move is the ultimate sign that voter behavior in Germany has shifted irrevocably," says Wolf. "Others will no doubt follow suit. If the media really want to capture voter intention, they have no choice but to report data gathered just before the election."
http://business.time.com/2013/09/11/one-or-two-more-greece-bailouts-likely/
The eurozone may need to help Greece with one or even two more aid packages, according to a representative of the European Central Bank (ECB).
“We will have to make some extra efforts — certainly once, perhaps twice”, said Luc Coene, a ECB Governing Council member on Wednesday.
Greece’s economy is seeing “very slow” improvements, he said, following a €200 billion ($265 billion) bailout from eurozone lenders and another €40 billion ($530 billion) package from the International Monetary Fund. But the country’s debt problems no longer pose an immediate threat to the “whole edifice” of the eurozone.
The financial situation is “much better armed” to ward off another crisis, said Coene, who is also the president of Belgium’s National Bank. International experts from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund will meet in Athens later this month for talks on Greece’s recovery.
[WSJ]
and.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-05/post-ecb-reminder-state-europe
A Post-ECB Reminder On The 'State' Of Europe
Submitted by Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
September 22 is the date for the German Elections. All of Europe and the IMF are keeping their heads down, playing nice and saying very little until this date comes and goes. No one wants to upset the chances of Ms. Merkel's re-election. No one wants to upset the Bratwurst Cart.
Pouring forth from all of the nations on the Continent, like a Preacher with the "Good News," is the notion that Europe is over the recession, that every country is doing just fine and that all problems have been solved.This, in my opinion, could not be further from the truth. It is the spiel of the day and reality will be found in the footnotes of tomorrow as long as tomorrow is after September 22.
It is now publicly admitted by many that Greece will need some additional funding.The number thrown around is about $14 billion. I invite any of you to examine the finances of Greece. Go to the Bank for International Settlements site. Do a little homework and you will see that this projection is far from accurate. The number is going to be somewhere around $80 billion dollars in my estimation and I am just not sure if all of the nations in Europe are going to go along with this. We may have reached a point where some countries say, "Enough."
"I have enough money to last me for the rest of my life. Unless I am forced to buy food."
-The Wizard
The IMF, under their charter, cannot fund without twelve months of financing being in place to pay back any loans. Of course the IMF has not had an accurate financial projection for Europe in years but no matter as even fantasy projections are becoming hard to justify. The IMF has asked for debt forgiveness from the EU or the ECB or both and Germany's cry has been unrelenting, "Verboten!!!" Consequently where will the new money come from? If Cyprus is a template or even a suggestion it may come from the depositors in the Greek banks. Over 100m Euros of course but it could certainly get down to this. "Anyone but the taxpayers" seems to be the rallying cry these days but it is going to have to be someone and all of the old jokes have been already told.
In Spain, Europe has promulgated their famous "Extend and Pretend" strategy. They did not want to lend money to Spain and hurt the credibility of the nation so they lent 40 billion Euros to the Spanish banks which is guaranteed by Spain but no matter. Contingent liabilities are not counted on the balance sheets of the sovereign nations in Europe and the rabbit still pops out of the hat along with the weasel.
Then the 3.6% debt ratio mandated for all of the EU was changed to 6.5% for Spain. One more "Extend and Pretend" play. The imminent problem though is that Spain will probably not even meet that number and is now in danger of being downgraded to junk. A quick pen to paper exercise given Spain's continuing financial problems on both sides of the balance sheet where revenues are declining as social costs, such as their contribution to Social services are inclining due to their massive unemployment leads me to the conclusion that the miss will be somewhere around 8.5%. Of course, Europe may next change the way we count so that 8.5% will now come in between 2.0% and 3.0% as Berlin unveils new chronological proof that Rome counted in just this fashion. Athens counts this way when convenient so why not the rest of Europe?
In America we have the taper on/taper off debate. Bond prices do very little but head South while yields and the cost of funding rises.The Equity markets may awake one day soon and notice the rise in yields but apparently no one has notified them yet. The stock market has also not been told yet about Syria, the downshift in corporate revenues and earnings or that Italy may soon fall apart as Berlusconi threatens to burn the Coliseum. Old Mother Hubbard just does not want to disturb the children and when the wolf comes by to blow down the houses the poor babies may be in for quite a shock.
The Dame made a curtsy,
Pouring forth from all of the nations on the Continent, like a Preacher with the "Good News," is the notion that Europe is over the recession, that every country is doing just fine and that all problems have been solved.This, in my opinion, could not be further from the truth. It is the spiel of the day and reality will be found in the footnotes of tomorrow as long as tomorrow is after September 22.
It is now publicly admitted by many that Greece will need some additional funding.The number thrown around is about $14 billion. I invite any of you to examine the finances of Greece. Go to the Bank for International Settlements site. Do a little homework and you will see that this projection is far from accurate. The number is going to be somewhere around $80 billion dollars in my estimation and I am just not sure if all of the nations in Europe are going to go along with this. We may have reached a point where some countries say, "Enough."
"I have enough money to last me for the rest of my life. Unless I am forced to buy food."
-The Wizard
The IMF, under their charter, cannot fund without twelve months of financing being in place to pay back any loans. Of course the IMF has not had an accurate financial projection for Europe in years but no matter as even fantasy projections are becoming hard to justify. The IMF has asked for debt forgiveness from the EU or the ECB or both and Germany's cry has been unrelenting, "Verboten!!!" Consequently where will the new money come from? If Cyprus is a template or even a suggestion it may come from the depositors in the Greek banks. Over 100m Euros of course but it could certainly get down to this. "Anyone but the taxpayers" seems to be the rallying cry these days but it is going to have to be someone and all of the old jokes have been already told.
In Spain, Europe has promulgated their famous "Extend and Pretend" strategy. They did not want to lend money to Spain and hurt the credibility of the nation so they lent 40 billion Euros to the Spanish banks which is guaranteed by Spain but no matter. Contingent liabilities are not counted on the balance sheets of the sovereign nations in Europe and the rabbit still pops out of the hat along with the weasel.
Then the 3.6% debt ratio mandated for all of the EU was changed to 6.5% for Spain. One more "Extend and Pretend" play. The imminent problem though is that Spain will probably not even meet that number and is now in danger of being downgraded to junk. A quick pen to paper exercise given Spain's continuing financial problems on both sides of the balance sheet where revenues are declining as social costs, such as their contribution to Social services are inclining due to their massive unemployment leads me to the conclusion that the miss will be somewhere around 8.5%. Of course, Europe may next change the way we count so that 8.5% will now come in between 2.0% and 3.0% as Berlin unveils new chronological proof that Rome counted in just this fashion. Athens counts this way when convenient so why not the rest of Europe?
In America we have the taper on/taper off debate. Bond prices do very little but head South while yields and the cost of funding rises.The Equity markets may awake one day soon and notice the rise in yields but apparently no one has notified them yet. The stock market has also not been told yet about Syria, the downshift in corporate revenues and earnings or that Italy may soon fall apart as Berlusconi threatens to burn the Coliseum. Old Mother Hubbard just does not want to disturb the children and when the wolf comes by to blow down the houses the poor babies may be in for quite a shock.
The Dame made a curtsy,
The dog made a bow;
The Dame said, "Your servant;"
The dog said, "Bow-wow."
-Old Mother Hubbard, 1805
-Old Mother Hubbard, 1805
No comments:
Post a Comment