Final polling results.... Merkel will get a third term it would appear but no absolute majority - but to form a government , she will have to bring either SPD or the Greens ! After the campaign , hard to see SPD joining with Merkel without obtaining significant concessions.... Green party has fallen off in popularity and seem to have their own demons these days....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-23/german-coalition-negotiations-key-players-watch
German Coalition Negotiations: Key Players To Watch
After a surprisingly manic election night the focus in Germany now shifts to the tricky task of forming a government. As Open Europe explains, many options remain possible. Merkel looks unlikely to gain a majority on her own while the FDP and AfD are certainly out of the Bundestag.
(chart: Bloomberg)
This leaves a Grand Coalition, a CDU/CSU and Greens coalition or (as a very, very longshot) some form of SPD-Greens-Die Linke (Red-Red-Green) coalition or alliance which could still mathematically have a majority.
Little progress is expected before the end of the week, with the SPD holding a small party conference on Friday where it will determine its strategy for the negotiations. SPD Chancellor Candidate Peer Steinbrück has already said that the “ball is now in Merkel’s court”, suggesting he expects her to propose the terms of any Grand Coalition. Meanwhile, Greens leader Jürgen Trittin has said that, while open to negotiations over a coalition with Merkel, the chances of finding an agreement are “extremely limited”.
Who are the key players in the formation of the new government?
Angela Merkel (Chancellor – CDU/CSU): As Chancellor in her third term, Merkel will remain the key power player. Her slow and incremental approach will continue and set the tone for the whole government. Her term will be dominated by questions over her successor – for which there are few candidates. Rumours already abound that she may leave before the end of her term. She will need to identify and groom a successor, however, whether this will erode her own power base remains to be seen. Remains a key ally for Cameron and the key person he needs to convince for his reform agenda.
Wolfgang Schäuble (Finance Minister – CDU/CSU): Likely to remain Finance Minister, strong supporter of Merkel’s incremental approach to the eurozone crisis.
Peer Steinbrück (SPD Chancellor Candidate):Likely to lead the coalition negotiations for the SPD (although this could still change), but won’t take up any ministerial post in a grand coalition. Could well pay the price for the party’s poor electoral showing.
Sigmar Gabriel (SPD Chairman): Likely to be Vice-Chancellor and take up ministerial post (either labour or defence) under a grand coalition. However, given the bad overall score for the SPD, the existing internal pressure on Gabriel might reach a tipping-point and leave him empty-handed.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Leader of the Opposition in the Bundestag – SPD): Likely to become Foreign Minister under a grand coalition as in he was in 2005 - 2009. Had a reputation for undermining some of Merkel’s foreign policy goals in the previous coalition. Often seen as a Francophile and has previously suggested he believes the UK will leave the EU. Could hamper UK reform effort, although that said, much of the power on European decisions now lies in the Kanzleramt and Finance Ministry. Furthermore, the shift from current incumbent, Guido Westerwelle, may not be huge.
Thomas Oppermann (SPD): Likely to become Interior Minister given his expertise in this field.
Greens leadership: After the Greens slipped to 8.4% (compared to 10.7% in previous elections), a lot of internal movement is going on. The party’s Chief Whip, Volcker Beck, has already announced his resignation while the double party chairmanship, Claudia Roth and Cem Özdemir, offered their resignation this morning.
Both lead candidates, Katrin Göring-Eckar and Jürgen Trittin, seem to be dedicated to stay even though internal party pressure is increasing on the latter. Finally, the leader of the Green parliamentary group, Renate Künast, would need to be considered among the key players in a potential coalition with the CDU/CSU. What ministerial posts they could or would push for is unclear, but one would assume environmental and energy related posts would be top of the list
http://www.businessinsider.com/angela-merkel-falls-short-of-a-majority-and-will-now-have-to-include-leftists-in-her-coalition-2013-9
Angela Merkel secured a third term as German chancellor, but her Christian Democrat party fell just short of winning an outright majority, BBC reports.
As a result, she will now have to include leftists in her ruling coalition.
According to provisional final results, Merkel's Christian Democrats received 41.5% of the vote.
That outcome was not all that unexpected.
The real news is that Merkel's former junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats, got routed, failing to surpass the 5% threshold necessary to even stand in parliament.
So now Merkel will have to choose among those parties that did make it in.
That includes the Social Democrats (SPD), who received the second-most votes at 25.7%, and the Greens at 8.4%.
The New York Times' Alison Smale and Melissa Eddy actually called this outcome hours ago, writing that there will now be, "more paralysis for Europe as German leaders engage in weeks of horse-trading to form what is likely to be a grand coalition."
Reuters' Noah Barkin notes Merkel ran a successful coalition with the SPD from 2005 to 2009.
But he says this time around they may not join without heavy concessions:
During the campaign, the center-left party argued for a minimum wage and higher taxes on the wealthy -- both opposed by Merkel. The party could also demand the finance ministry, pushing out respected 71-year-old incumbent Wolfgang Schaeuble.
SPD Chairman Sigmar Gabriel did not categorically rule out entering talks with Merkel, but sent a signal that his party, which lost millions of supporters during the last 'grand coalition,' would not roll over.
'We won't automatically go into a grand coalition,' said Gabriel. 'What is important are the policies.'
The Euro-skeptic AfD party, the leader of which our Matt Boesler interviewed earlier this year, also failed to make the 5% cut-off.
Green party items.....
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/green-party-leader-trittin-admits-to-approving-document-on-pedophilia-a-922442.html
The latest politician to be dragged into the Green Party's pedophilia scandal is Jürgen Trittin, the party's top candidate in the upcoming federal election. He was responsible for a 1981 election platform that included a call for the decriminalization of sex between minors* and adults.
The platform belonged to the Göttingen branch of the Alternative Green Initiative List (AGIL), a forerunner of the current Green Party, and was uncovered by political scientists Franz Walter and Stephan Klecha of the Göttingen Institute for the Study of Democracy. The organization was hired by the Green Party in May to investigate the party'saffiliations with pedophile activists in the 1980s.In an essay for the left-leaning Die Tageszeitung newspaper on Monday, Walter wrote that Trittin, at the time a student who was running for city council, was one of five members of an editorial board that signed off on the election manifesto. The document called for sex between minors and adults to be made exempt from punishment, so long as it involved neither violence nor the threat of violence.
As Walter explains, it was not uncommon for the AGIL to take over the platforms of minority interest groups.
Jürgen Trittin told Die Tageszeitung that the researchers' findings were correct. "It was simply taken for granted that we adopted one-to-one the demands of various fringe initiatives, such as those of the 'Homosexual Action Göttingen,'" Trittin said. "The responsibility was mine and it's a mistake I regret."
Co-Candiate Offers Support
Katrin Göring-Eckardt, who shares Trittin's position as the leading candidate in the upcoming election, said Trittin was unaware at the time that he was listed as one of the platform's co-authors. Trittin's name was the only one on the document that included a footnote stating he was "responsible according to press law" -- meaning he took legal responsibility for the contents of the document.
Göring-Eckardt said on public television broadcaster ZDF it was an "absolutely incomprehensible" that pedophiles found support in the Green Party of the 1970s and 1980s, and that she was "very glad" the chapter in the party's history is over.
The Green Party is spending more than €200,000 ($267,000) on the study to investigate its past history of support for pedophiles. The price tag is a handsome sum, considering the party's annual budget of €5 million, and suggests the party is eager to clarify and resolve the murky chapter in its history.
That history caught up with the party earlier this year, when comments on children's sexuality in the 1975 autobiography of Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Green Party representative in the European Parliament, resurfaced in the media.The most recent revelation comes at an unfortunate time for the Green Party. With less than a week to go before Germany's general election, Trittin's political opponents have already begun to exploit the issue to discredit his campaign.
"Trittin needs to consider whether he really is the right man to be fronting the Greens," said Philipp Missfelder of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of the conservative Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), told the website of the magazine Focus that Trittin should withdraw from his position as the Green Party's leading candidate in the election.
*Please note that this text has been changed to substitute the word "minors" for the word "children" to avoid misunderstandings. The law that the Green Party sought to eliminate related to sexual relations between adults and both youth and children. There was no mention in the Greens' demand for the elimination of the paragraph in question (§175 of the Strafgesetzbuch) of the introduction of a minimum age for sexual relations between adults and minors. The law was eliminated in 1990 and the absolute minimum age of 14 was introduced with varying protections for minors over the age of 14.
jlp -- with wiresAs Walter explains, it was not uncommon for the AGIL to take over the platforms of minority interest groups.
Jürgen Trittin told Die Tageszeitung that the researchers' findings were correct. "It was simply taken for granted that we adopted one-to-one the demands of various fringe initiatives, such as those of the 'Homosexual Action Göttingen,'" Trittin said. "The responsibility was mine and it's a mistake I regret."
Co-Candiate Offers Support
Katrin Göring-Eckardt, who shares Trittin's position as the leading candidate in the upcoming election, said Trittin was unaware at the time that he was listed as one of the platform's co-authors. Trittin's name was the only one on the document that included a footnote stating he was "responsible according to press law" -- meaning he took legal responsibility for the contents of the document.
Göring-Eckardt said on public television broadcaster ZDF it was an "absolutely incomprehensible" that pedophiles found support in the Green Party of the 1970s and 1980s, and that she was "very glad" the chapter in the party's history is over.
The Green Party is spending more than €200,000 ($267,000) on the study to investigate its past history of support for pedophiles. The price tag is a handsome sum, considering the party's annual budget of €5 million, and suggests the party is eager to clarify and resolve the murky chapter in its history.
"Trittin needs to consider whether he really is the right man to be fronting the Greens," said Philipp Missfelder of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alexander Dobrindt, general secretary of the conservative Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), told the website of the magazine Focus that Trittin should withdraw from his position as the Green Party's leading candidate in the election.
*Please note that this text has been changed to substitute the word "minors" for the word "children" to avoid misunderstandings. The law that the Green Party sought to eliminate related to sexual relations between adults and both youth and children. There was no mention in the Greens' demand for the elimination of the paragraph in question (§175 of the Strafgesetzbuch) of the introduction of a minimum age for sexual relations between adults and minors. The law was eliminated in 1990 and the absolute minimum age of 14 was introduced with varying protections for minors over the age of 14.
and....
http://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2013/09/germany-veggie-day-and-michelle-obama-173206.html
BERLIN—The elections set to take place here in Germany Sunday are expected to turn largely on the country's solid economy, Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of the European debt crisis and social issues like women's role in the work force. But add to that plate one more thing: Germans don't want the government telling them what to eat.
In what could be a cautionary tale for First Lady Michelle Obama's efforts to tweak Americans' diets, Germans look set to punish the Green Party for urging that public cafeterias go meat-free on a designated "Veggie Day" each week in order to help the environment and reduce cruelty to animals. Borrowing colorfully from English, German newspaper Bild described public reaction to the idea as a "shitstorm."
It was in many ways an easy shot for Merkel to take, but her resistance to "Veggie Day" seemed to involve more than just needling an opposition party over a perceived misstep. Having spent 45 years under Communist rule, she appeared to chafe at the state intruding into decisions as personal as what food to ingest.
Earlier this year, the Greens were polling consistently in the double digits, often around 15% to 16%. However, since the "Veggie Day" story broke in August, the party's following has dropped to as low as 9% in some polls. There is and was no chance of a Green becoming prime minister this year, but the drop in support may have boosted the other parties and diminished the chances of a coalition government involving Merkel's CDU and the Greens. Merkel is considered virtually certain to win a third-term as chancellor, as my colleague Emily Schultheis has reported, but the make-up of the government depends largely on the performance of smaller parties.
To be sure, the "Veggie Day" flap is far from the only thing hurting the Greens' chances at the polls Sunday. Their dalliance in the 1980s with legalizing pedophilia has gotten extensive, negative press attention during the election campaign. And their trademark environmental policies aren't providing much of an edge anymore either. Much of the Greens' ecological platform has been co-opted by the other parties, including Merkel's. In addition, some voters blame the Greens for high electricity prices.
*****
Merkel Wins Federal Election But Coalition Partner Below Bundestag Threshold: Final Outcome Too Close To Call
While the outcome of the election from the perspective of "the grand coalition" is still too close to call, Exit polls make it clear that Merkels CDU/CSU party has won the election with 42.5% of the vote. However, there are some very interesting results that could be a problem for Europe's 'program-based' nations:
- GERMAN AFD TAKES 4.8% IN FEDERAL ELECTION, ZDF EXIT POLL SHOWS
- GERMAN FDP TAKES 4.5% IN FEDERAL ELECTION, ZDF EXIT POLL SHOWS
So the anti-Euro party has more votes (nearly the 5% required to enter the Bundestag) than Merkel's current coalition partner FDP party which creates major uncertainty over the forming of a coalition (which took 3 weeks in 2005) - which as we noted seemed to priced into Greek stocks on Friday. The pirate party is projected to have 2.5% of the vote. A "Grand Coalition" appears inevitable.
The results so far at 1810 German time...
How the Bundestag seats would be broken down based on this configuration (with both FDP and AfD failing to enter Parliament, which for the AfD is a very close call with just 0.1% away from the threshold):
And according to ARD, this is what a potential CDU-Greens coalition may look like. Other "grand coalition" possibilities are also possible.
Live feed from ARD (for German speakers):
Some more color from Nomura,
...after polls close, the leaders of all the major parties will give a 45-minute joint TV interview scheduled to start at 8.15pm (broadcast by ARD and ZDF) while party leaders will meet on 23 September to decide how to proceed with coalition talks.The polls (and their margins of error) continue to suggest that the German elections remain finely balanced between a repeat of the current CDU/CSU and FDP coalition and a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and the SPD. While the immediate focus will be on coalition building (nb: agreement for a grand coalition took just over three weeks back in September/October 2005), we highlighted earlier this week the significant pipeline of policy decisions looming after the elections: (i) the exit strategies of programme countries (where the debate will likely be even more vociferous should the AfD reach the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag), (ii) modalities around the SSM and second leg of banking union, and (iii) resumption of the debate on fiscal union.
Live news feed from AFP can be found here:
- 1625 GMT: "Triumph for Merkel, cliffhanger for FDP and AfD" is the headline on the website of leading German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung.
- 1623 GMT: "Up seven points on an increased turnout -- even if she loses the FDP, Merkel has given a lesson to the rest of Europe," tweets Frédéric Happe.
- 1617 GMT: AFP's Deborah Cole tweets: "Most recent public television info says anti-euro AfD at 4.9 percent -- they cld still clear threshold to seats".
- 1615 GMT: The exit polls from ARD and ZDF public television give Merkel's CDU at least 42 percent, the Social Democrats about 26 percent and the Free Democrats just below the five percent needed to re-enter parliament.
- 1609 GMT: AFP's Frédéric Happe (@FredHappe on Twitter) in Berlin says the alternatives to a Grand Coalition just don't stack up. "SPD+Greens+Linke undoubtedly not enough and barely credible, CDU+Greens also," he writes.
- 1603 GMT: MERKEL'S CURRENT COALITION PARTNERS FDP FAIL TO WIN SEATS, EXIT POLLS SAY
- 1602 GMT: EXIT POLLS INDICATE MERKEL'S CDU WINS CLEAR VICTORY, GRAND COALITION LIKELY
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/germany-election-results-merkel-live-updates
Exit polls
Right then, according to ARD:
CDU 42.0 %; SPD 26.0%; FDP 4.7%; Greens 8.0%; Linke 8.5%; AfD 4.9%, Piraten 2.5%
Kate Connolly's snap judgement on that:
A fantastic result for the CDU, but the SPD's second worst result of all time. We could end up with just four parties in the Bundestag, making coalition building interesting. At the moment it looks like it has to be a grand coalition.
ARD TV showing grim-faced FDP cadres: could this be the first time they fall out of national parliament in 60 years? AfD by contrast overjoyed, some brandishing rather withered looking sunflowers. Not sure of significance of that...
#Merkel's Party just a few mps short of parliamentary majority - while junior coalition partners #FDP not even in (first exit polls) #btw13
— Nina Schick (@NinaDSchick) September 22, 2013Germans seem totally living in La La land regarding the major issues of the day - sadly , this would augur well for Merkel....
http://rt.com/op-edge/germany-election-euro-party-181/
Ahead of the parliamentary vote, Germans seem to be totally uninterested in major issues, like the NSA scandal or war in Syria, and talk more about things like Angela Merkel’s necklace, says Christian Schmidt from the anti-euro party.
“That is baffling everybody around,” none of important issues have surfaced during the pre-election campaign, Dr. Christian Schmidt, deputy head of the Berlin branch of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, told RT.
As Germany's political heavyweights make their final pitch for seats in Parliament, the new party that seeks to scrap the euro is making serious political inroads. Barely half a year since its creation, it is already close to making it into the Bundestag. Recent polls suggest that the AfD could win 5 percent of the votes in Sunday's election, which is just enough to get in.
RT: You're looking at a major success for a party that has just been founded. Do you see this as a sign of growing frustration with mainstream political forces in Germany?
Christian Schmidt: I believe that the fact that the euro is not working the way it was supposed to from the beginning is finally making headway with some of the voters who look beyond today’s difficulties and look into the long term where Germany at one point will have one way or the other to pay the bill for all the systems that have been set – one measure after the other – to bailout Greece and other countries. There is a rising discontent that this very subject – the euro – has so far been swept under the carpet by the main parties.
RT: Angela Merkel looks set to become Chancellor for the third time. Surely that shows that Germans are actually happy with the way the country is going?
CS: Well, it’s basically clear that Ms Merkel will become the next Chancellor. Whether it will be in the current coalition with the Free Democrats or else if they won’t master the 51 percent they need in the parliament and they would go with the grand coalition with the Social-Democrats. But who knows? Everything is open at this point. Possibly, Merkel would also tend to go with the Free Democrats again and even consider going into a coalition with others in case she doesn’t get an agreement with the Social Democrats.
RT: It has recently emerged that Greece is going to need a third bailout. Are you happy with Germany throwing more money at this problem?
CS: This particular problem was also swept under the carpet and only through the [mistake] of the Federal Minister of Finance a couple of weeks ago did that third measure resurface in the national politics. This did help us to gain more votes. The third rescue effort for Greece will possibly come two days after the election is over. So we are all waiting for this even though the ruling coalition is sweeping it under the carpet.
RT: This election has been quiet. The major candidates did not discuss what many pundits view as the major issues, like growing income inequality and even Syria. Why do you think that is?
CS: That is baffling everybody around. None of the issues – like the NSA, Syria, of anything else – have surfaced. More discussed is that Merkel is wearing a special necklace or that the head of the Social Democrats is giving the bad finger. Major policies do not seem to be of interest for the German electorate. It cannot be understood. I can’t see why people are not interested in major issues, but that is the fact.
RT: Let's take a look at the scandal surrounding the NSA's surveillance of Germans, which did create some heat in an otherwise calm campaign. How do you think it affected the election?
CS: It did not affect it at all. If it had done, the Pirate Party –which are already in four regional parliaments – would have definitely gained much more support for their current activities. But the Pirates are hovering around 2-3 percent and they are not going to get into the parliament even though internet activities are their main issue. That shows again that the German electorate basically says: “Ok, the NSA scandal was what it is but it does not really bother us. We have to take a certain degree of measures. There are spies even in the internet, there were always spies. So if life veers now more to the internet, then they are spying on the internet as well.” But the German population does not seem to care much.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GERMANY_ELECTION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-09-22-09-55-58
MERKEL BIDDING FOR 3RD TERM IN GERMAN ELECTION
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BERLIN (AP) -- Chancellor Angela Merkel was strongly favored to win a third term at the helm of Europe's biggest economy as Germans voted in a national election Sunday, but the popular conservative's hopes of governing with center-right allies for another four years were in the balance.
Nearly 62 million people were eligible to elect the lower house of Parliament, which in turn chooses the chancellor.
Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and its Bavaria-only sister, the Christian Social Union, appeared likely to emerge as the strongest force and fend off a challenge from center-left rival Peer Steinbrueck. But beyond that, things may get more complicated.
Early indications pointed to a higher turnout than four years ago, election officials said - with 41.4 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots by 2 p.m. (1200 GMT), four hours before polling stations closed. That compared with 36.1 at the same point in 2009. Experts say a higher turnout could help Steinbrueck's party.
No single party has won a majority in Germany in more than 50 years. Merkel would like to continue governing with her partner of choice, the pro-business Free Democratic Party - but polls have shown support for the smaller party fading from nearly 15 percent in the 2009 election to around the 5 percent needed to keep any seats in Parliament.
Merkel pleaded Saturday for "a strong mandate so that I can serve Germany for another four years, make policies for ... a strong Germany, for a country that is respected in Europe, that works for Europe; a country that stands up for its interests in the world, but is a friend of many nations."
Her party has rebuffed calls from leading Free Democrats for Merkel supporters to back them, saying it has no votes to spare. Polls showed the coalition in a dead heat with a combination of Steinbrueck's Social Democrats, their Green allies and the hard-line Left Party - but the two center-left parties have ruled out an alliance with the latter.
If her current coalition falls short of a parliamentary majority, the likeliest outcome is a switch to a Merkel-led "grand coalition" of her conservatives with the Social Democrats, the same combination of traditional rivals that ran Germany from 2005 to 2009 in Merkel's first term.
That's unlikely to produce a radical change in policies. However, it could signal subtle shifts, perhaps a greater emphasis on bolstering economic growth over the austerity that Germany has insisted on in exchange for bailing out economically weak European countries such as Greece.
Final results are due within hours of polls closing at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT). But with margins so close, the country could still face weeks of horse-trading before a clear picture of the new government emerges.
Merkel calls her current coalition "the most successful government since reunification" 23 years ago. She points to the robust economy and unemployment which, at 6.8 percent, is very low for Germany and far below that of many other European countries.
Polls gave Merkel popularity ratings of about 70 percent. The sky-high popularity doesn't extend to her coalition, which has bickered frequently over issues ranging from tax cuts to privacy laws. The Free Democrats have taken much of the blame.
"They said it was a marriage of love - that was how they ran in 2009 - and then the divorce lawyer spent the whole time running along the sidelines," Steinbrueck said at a rally in Frankfurt on Saturday.
Steinbrueck's platform stresses the importance of narrowing the gap between rich and poor. He wants to introduce a national minimum wage and raise income tax for top earners. Merkel and the Free Democrats contend that both measures could backfire and hurt the economy.
A new party, Alternative for Germany, which calls for an "orderly breakup" of the euro currency zone and appeals to socially conservative voters, could sap votes from the governing parties and complicate Sunday's outcome. Polls suggested that it could enter Parliament - but Merkel and others are ruling out working with it.
"Stabilizing the euro is not just a good thing for Europe, it is in the elementary interests of Germany," Merkel said Saturday. "It secures jobs and it secures our prosperity."
She said that her course of helping Europe's strugglers in exchange for budget discipline and reforms "must be continued."
A euro breakup "would set European unification back 20 to 30 years" and ruin German businesses, said Steinbrueck, whose party backed Merkel's eurozone policies in Parliament but criticized her for over-emphasizing austerity.
Germany's government, he said, has "a clear European responsibility to hold this continent together."
An opinion poll published Sunday by the weekly Bild am Sonntag put support for Merkel's conservatives at 39 percent. Her allies the Free Democrats were at 6 percent.
Steinbrueck's Social Democrats would receive 26 percent of the vote, according to the poll. The Greens and the Left Party each came in at 9 percent.
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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/angela-merkel-poised-to-win-third-term/story-e6frg6so-1226724737328
GERMANS began voting last night, with Chancellor Angela Merkel poised to win a third term, making her Europe's only major leader to survive its financial crisis but potentially forced into governing with her main rivals.
After shepherding Europe's top economy through the debt turmoil, Ms Merkel emerged more popular than ever because of her motherly reassurance as the crisis felled leaders in France, Greece, Italy and Spain.
Pollsters say voters would re-elect the 59-year-old, whose nickname "Mutti" ("Mummy") can seem incongruous with her other often-used description as the world's most powerful woman. But the burning question will be with whom she will govern.
"Rarely was it so close. Merkel's coalition only has a razor-thin majority in the polls," the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily said, adding that many of the nearly 62 million voters only make up their minds at the last minute.
Ms Merkel boasts her centre-right coalition has been Germany's most successful since reunification in 1990, enjoying a robust economy and a jobless rate of less than 7 per cent.
But her stated aim for her conservative Christian Democratic Union to stay in power with its junior partners, the pro-business Free Democratic Party, hinges on the smaller party's unpredictable fortunes.
"The continued governing by this coalition remains uncertain," said Gero Neugebauer, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University. If the alliance fails to rally a ruling majority, Ms Merkel could be forced back into the arms of her traditional rivals, the Social Democrats, with whom she governed in a loveless "grand coalition" during her first term.
Under the watchful eye of Germany's European partners, a new Eurosceptic party, the Alternative for Germany, could also prove a wild card, either by clawing enough support to send MPs into parliament or wooing disgruntled centre-right voters away.
"For Chancellor Merkel the Eurosceptics are becoming a problem," Spiegel online commented on the eve of the vote. "If the protest party manages to jump into the Bundestag (lower house of parliament), that may cost the black-yellow coalition power," it added, referring to the colour code for Ms Merkel's current alliance.
Three polls in the run-up show the AfD, which advocates ditching the single currency and an "orderly dissolution" of the eurozone, falling below the 5 per cent hurdle needed to enter parliament. But some analysts and pollsters have not ruled it out amid fresh Greek aid fears, stressing it is hard to assess the fledgling party's chances because it has no election track record and supporters may not own up to backing it in surveys.
Ms Merkel again hammered home Europe's importance for Germany at a last-chance push for votes in Berlin on Saturday, saying her country "can only do well in the long term if all of Europe does well". "This is why the stabilisation of the euro is not just a good thing for Europe but it is also in Germany's fundamental interest," she said, as a band belted out "Angie must save the world".
Supporters of stronger stimulus measures have pinned their hopes on the SPD whose gaffe-prone candidate Peer Steinbrueck, 66, has struggled to score points and still trailed Merkel's conservatives by 13 points in the last opinion poll. A former finance minister in Ms Merkel's 2005-09 grand coalition, Mr Steinbrueck has run into trouble during the campaign, most recently with a surly middle-finger front-page photo of him as a non-verbal reply to a question on his stumbling candidacy.
He has zeroed in on the growing low-wage sector and calls for an across-the-board minimum wage. Ms Merkel favours more flexible pay agreements drafted between employers and unions, regionally and by sector.
In his final-day stump speech, he urged voters to remove "the most inactive government that has made the most reversals" in over two decades and mocked the famously ideologically flexible Ms Merkel for "going round and round".
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