Thursday, August 8, 2013

JP Morgan - the Bad Boy Of Wall Street - no shortage of civil suits - now a criminal probe related to mbs , investigations around the globe over alleged misconduct at JP Morgan , in the middle of physical concerns at COMEX --- Will JP Morgan put TBTF to the test ? Gold and silver data , news and views - August 8 , 2013 !

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/08/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_8.html


08 AUGUST 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - GLD May Be In the Eye of the Gathering Storm


I spent some time rereading the prospectus and some recent filings of the SPDR Gold ETF today. 

A reader had asked me a question this morning about a statement I made yesterday about the squeeze on physical bullion and how it may intensify if gold rallies. I said that GLD has to start adding back some of the bullion it has disgorged at some point, and many of those 400 oz. bars may likely have headed east, not to return.

The reader said, 'why can't GLD just refuse to add the gold back?'

It is not the management of GLD's decision to make. I had to go back and read the prospectus and some recent filings to remind myself why.

GLD essentially acts as a trustee, with very light obligations and therefore a small management fee. It is primarily an organizer for the bullion banks and other brokers, who as 'Authorized Participants' make the decision to increase or decrease the amount of gold held in the GLD ETF and the number of unit shares outstanding.

The current Authorized Participants according to GLD's most recent filing are Barclays Capital Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., Goldman, Sachs & Co., Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing, L.P., HSBC Securities (USA) Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Merrill Lynch Professional Clearing Corp., Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Newedge USA LLC, RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., UBS Securities LLC, Virtu Financial Capital Markets, LLC and Virtu Financial BD LLC.

GLD is a creature based largely on arbitrage and self-regulation of a variety of market participants and custodians. HSBC acts as primary custodian for the gold in their allocated and unallocated accounts. An Authorized Participants can add or redeem gold from the holdings of GLD in 100,000 unit tranches.

Although it can be confusing, I sometimes refer to 'GLD' as the collective action of the Authorized Participants in arbitraging the price and inventory. And I am not the only one.  I know its sloppy, but that's what it is. Earlier this year a spokesperson  for GLD itself made the same type of statement about their intention with regard to share/bullion ratios, and I quoted it indirectly.

But it is correct to say that this is a 'group thing' based on market equilibrium, arbitrage, and counterparty trust.  I am sure they do not have to meet about or discuss it, because in theory the information is all conveyed by the market and their access to real time inventory data.  I do not think all this information is shared equally among market participants.  There is an 'intraday indicative value' with the symbol PHYS.IV.

The Authorized Participants have the ability to sell the units short, although they could achieve a similar equilibrium by shorting or buying in an associated market like the COMEX or the derivatives market for example.

It is this function that provides the lever for the arbitrage. If retail demand pushes the price of GLD above its Net Asset Value based on its bullion and units, the Participants who know this figure intraday can sell shares short to match it to the price of gold and buy bullion if they wish as a hedge. Or tweak the spot price in the futures market by performing essentially the same buy and sell functions.

If they wish to cover these shorts, they may deposit a 100,000 unit tranche of gold back into the ETF and use those shares received in return to cover the short. Or they may buy back in the open market if the price has dropped below the NAV. If they wish to reduce the amount of gold in the GLD account they can redeem units in 100,000 unit tranches.

Off hand I could not say if the ETF unit shorts are borrows or naked.  I suppose it is like anything else these days.

I know this is a simplification, and there is an interesting dynamic going on since these same Authorized Participants are sometimes 'major players' in the COMEX where the price of spot is essentially set intraday, in addition to the LBMA twice daily price fixes.If you wish to read this further here is a link to the GLD filings. Some web sites such as VictortheCleaner also provides further commentary, although I might not call GLD the central bank of the bullion banks because of GLD's structural passivity.

In reviewing things, I have come to a tentative conclusion that if this system of balancing risks should fail, a counterparty failure is more likely to occur first with GLD rather than in the COMEX or LBMA, although this might be a matter of a same day occurrence.

So if the price of gold starts going higher, and the shorts cover in the open market, they have little other choice in their arbitrage than to buy gold eventually and add units to the ETF to bring the NAV back into equilibrium with price.

Where they may find the suitable 400 oz. bars to do that is another question altogether. And the fiduciary responsibility for GLD is spread across a range of participating custodians, subcontractors and brokers.

Weighed, and found wanting.

Stand and deliver.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/08/sp-500-and-ndx-futures-daily-charts-jpm.html

08 AUGUST 2013

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - JPM the New 'Bad Boy' of Wall St


Stocks played the complacency trade today and bounced a bit within the narrow ascending range that has marked their price action since mid-July.

The storied "America's Bank," JP Morgan Chase, with its fortress balance sheet, was a weak player today as more news emerged about investigations and lawsuits for their dealing in various markets. And this despite reporting a 'perfect' trading record for the first half of this year. Is this what happens when good boys go bad?
"JPMorgan reported it is under investigation by the Justice Department in six separate areas; being pursued by multiple state attorneys general; Congress; at least five federal agencies; regulators around the world including the European Commission, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, the Canadian Competition Bureau, and the Swiss Competition Commission.

In addition, in a trial in Italy, two of its employees were “found guilty of aggravated fraud with sanctions of prison sentences, fines and a ban from dealing with Italian public bodies for one year.” In the same matter, JPMorgan was fined €1 million and ordered to forfeit profit from the transaction of €24.7 million."
Read the entire article by Pam Martens here.

One can only wonder.


http://www.infowars.com/jp-morgan-faces-criminal-probe-for-defrauding-investors/


JP Morgan faces criminal probe for defrauding investors

  •  The Alex Jones ChannelAlex Jones Show podcastPrison Planet TVInfowars.com TwitterAlex Jones' FacebookInfowars store
RT
August 8, 2013
The biggest US bank is under investigation by the country’s Department of Justice over whether it knowingly sold shoddy mortgage bonds prior to the financial crisis and is in violation of securities laws.
Credit: SolvencyIIWire via Flickr
Credit: SolvencyIIWire via Flickr
JPMorgan Chase announced Wednesday in a quarterly regulatory filing it is under criminal and civil investigation. The bank “continues to respond to other MBS [mortgage-backed security] related regulatory inquiries,” the filing said.
The US’s largest bank is responding to the ‘parallel investigations’ by both the US Attorney’s Office and the Eastern District of California for overstating the quality of mortgages they sold to investors between 2005 and 2007, Reuters reports.
Neither the bank nor the federal branch have provided comment on the case.
The US is investigating JPMorgan under the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery and Enforcement Act, according to Bloomberg.
Last October, New York attorney general Eric. T. Schneiderman accused the bank of selling securities that caused roughly $22.5 billion in investor loss.
President Obama’s federal mortgage task force has aggressively been going after banks and financial institutions to hold them accountable for any wrongdoing in the subprime mortgage boom and the subsequent burst which brought the American economy crashing down and into recession.
  • A D V E R T I S E M E N T
JPMorgan is one of 18 banks under accused of selling bad loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without fully disclosing risks.
The New York-based bank has faced a slew of law suits which span from energy pricing fraud to Libor rate scandal retributions.
Losses in 2013 could amount to $6.8 billion beyond its reserves, according to the bank’s internal estimates.
Bank of America was accused of, and contested, fraud allegations on Tuesday connected with single mortgage-backed securities.
The US Justice Department and the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) have investigated Bank of America for allegedly defrauding their investors of $850 million in securities. The bank has refuted the charges and has said their buyers had sufficient data and knowledge before purchasing the ‘bad loans’.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-08/hello-scotia-mocatta-jpmorgan-we-urgently-need-some-your-gold

"Hello Scotia Mocatta, This Is JPMorgan - We Urgently Need Some Of Your Gold"

Tyler Durden's picture




Yesterday, it was HSBC. Today, the lucky respondent to JPM's polite gold 'procurement' request, is the second "fullest" New York commercial gold vault: Scotia Mocatta.
As ZH reported previously, following the announcement of an imminent withdrawal of 63.5k ounces of its gold (16% of the total), JPM's vault operations team promptly called around and to its disappointment was only able to procure a tiny 6.4k ounces: not nearly enough to preserve the impression that it is well-stocked. We then said, "None of which changes the fact that in a few days, the inventory in JPM's gold vault will drop to another record low of only 380K ounces and the JPM "rescue" pleas from HSBC and other Comex members will become ever louder and more desperate until one day they may just go straight to voicemail."
Today, as we predicted, the calls into HSBC indeed appear to have gone straight to voicemail (perhaps HSBC did not have any more unencumbered gold to share, perhaps it just didn't want to) which left JPM with just one option: go down the list.
Sure enough, as the just released Comex update shows, JPM was forced to receive a "completely unsolicited" handout of some 20.2K ounces from Scotia Mocatta, the vault best known for being situated under 4 WTC during September 11 (and whose current physical vault can be found conveniently within spitting distance of JFK airport).
However, what is notable today unlike yesterday, is that JPM's pleas seem to be getting more shrill: while yesterday HSBC released eligible inventory, today Scotia was forced to hand over registered gold straight into JPM's eligible pile: this is perhaps the first time we have seen this happen laterally between two vaults, without an intermediate warrant detachment step. Furthermore, with HSBC moving 43.4K oz from Registered to Eligible, we would expect either another major Comex withdrawal in the next few days from HSBC, or this is merely HSBC making room for further gold "requests" by JPM.
Either way, assuming that first the HSBC transfer, and now the Scotia Mocatta gold delivery, aren't entirely unsolicited, how long until someone inquires just why it is that the biggest bank by assets is forced to run around town and beg for whatever gold it can get its hands on?
***
And for those who missed it, here isyesterday's lateral gold move from HSBC to JPM:
Source: Comex

Comex gold could default, Barron tells King World News

 Section: 
2:11p ET Thursday, August 8, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Geologist and mining entrepreneur Keith Barron today tells King World News that gold shortages could lead to a default on the Comex gold contract. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Grant Williams: How could gold and silver NOT have been manipulated?

 Section: 
5:16p ET Thursday, August 8, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst and fund strategist Grant Williams, author of the "Things That Make You Go Hmmm. ..." letter, writing exclusively today for King World News, notes the pervasive market rigging by major banks and the years-long price-suppressive trend in the London gold market, a trend perhaps first noted years ago in the research of the late GATA board member Adrian Douglas, and concludes:
"Can it possibly be true that the prices of gold and silver are not manipulated?"
Williams' commentary is posted at the King World News Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/08/august-8gld-falls-again-to-90933.html

Thursday, August 8, 2013

august 8/GLD falls again to 909.33 tonnes/Comex dealer gold falls to 25.25 tonnes/Total comex gold falls to 7.004 million oz/Gold rises to $1312

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen: 

Gold closed up  $24.60 to $1310.70 (comex closing time ).  Silver was up 65 cents to at $20.18 (comex closing time).



 
 In the access market today at 5:15 pm tonight here are the final  prices: 

gold: $1312.40
silver:  $20.25


Gold skyrocketed as the LBMA's GOFO rates increased in negativity and we also witnessed the 6 month finally go negative.  This gave the boost that physical metals in London where in scarce supply.




At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 99  contracts to 131,954 with silver up 1 cent yesterday .


  
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 784 contracts to 396,846 with  gold's rise in price yesterday by $2.90 cents. 

Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold  falls considerably and this time,  well below the 1 million oz mark at 812.095 thousand oz or 25.25 tonnes.  This is dangerously low especially when we are now into  the August delivery month.  The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) falls again tonight and this time just above the 7 million oz barrier resting at 7.004 million oz or 217.88 tonnes. 

JPMorgan's customer inventory rises tonight to 136,433.918  oz or 4.24 tonnes, courtesy of a Scotia transfer.  It's dealer inventory remained constant at 326,362.152 oz (10.15 tonnes) 

The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan)  in its Comex gold dealer account lowered their inventory tonight to only 20.656 tonnes of gold. The total of all of the comex dealers gold falls tonight to  25.25 tonnes!! Brinks continues to record a low of only 4.15 tonnes in its dealer account.



The GLD  reported a huge loss of 1.2 tonnes  in inventory  tonight with a  reading of 909.33  tonnes of gold.  We had no change in silver inventory at the SLV today. 

Today, we have the 24th consecutive day for negative GOFO rates with the 3 months rate slightly falling to -.08333 from yesterday's level of   -.085%.  The one month GOFO rate rose dramatically in negativity to -0.12167% from yesterday's level of -.11%.  The two month rate rose in negativity to -.1000% from yesterday's level of-.0967% and the 6 month GOFO rate finally entered the negative column at -00600% from yesterday's +.006%  Thus metal is becoming increasingly scarce. Basically it means that gold is dearer in the present than in the future and it also signifies that London has scarce supplies of good delivery bars.  No doubt that China, being a huge buyer of physical gold is responsible for this.  The whacking of gold this month is incompatible with an increasing negative GOFO rates.

******

Comex gold/May contract month:
August 8.2013


Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
20,189.361 (Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 11,298.16 (Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
24,788.045 (JPM,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 245 ( 24,500  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1900  (190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2515  (251,500 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
24,788.131
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
24,861.824

*****

August 8.2013: we lost another 1.2 tonnes of gold at the GLD today




Tonnes909.33

Ounces29,235,784.91

Value US$37.935  billion






*****

Bill Holter tackles JPMorgan:

(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)



Is it even possible? What does Mother Nature think?  
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JP Morgan reported their trading results for the first half of the year yesterday which included 128 trading days.  Lo and behold...they were a perfect 128 for 128 days where they made money, not one day did they lose even a dime.  Is this even possible?  I mean with the bond volatility that we saw... not to mention the currencies, commodities and precious metals?  Did they actually "time" every single move perfectly or at least close enough so that winning trades outdid any losers (were there even any losers) EVERY SINGLE DAY?
  I can still remember going to college during the caveman days of the early 80's and listening to professors and then beginning a Wall Street career where I was told that anyone who traded and had a "win" ratio of 55-60% would be considered the equivalent of Babe Ruth in baseball.  This current feat by JP Morgan is like Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky and Tiger Woods all wrapped up into one.  I would have included God on that list but Goldman Sachs already chose him for their team they now say they are "doing God's work".
  So, does anyone want to tell me that the market, ALL markets are not a bit (totally)rigged?  Is it statistically possible for a firm to win ...all day...every day...day after day?  Without inside information?  Or without being so big that they can push, pull or force markets to react how they wish?  Of course, not "marking" assets (liabilities) to any "market" other than "fantasy" certainly helps their cause but...there is such a thing as "Mother Nature".
  Let me tell you a story about Mother Nature before I go any further.  My horse who is now 14 years old lived in Costa Rica for 13 years.  Costa Rica has only 2 seasons, the wet season and the dry season.  They call these winter (wet season) and summer (dry season).  They call their seasons in reverse to ours even though they are in the same hemisphere because the dry season (Dec.-April) is their beach season.  Anyway, to make a long story short, my horse never ever changed hair growth or hoof growth during the seasonal changes.  However, here in Texas he started to grow his coat in late Oct. last year and by Dec. 1sthe looked like a "baby chick" he was so fuzzy.  My farrier made the comment of how cold a winter we were in for as all the horses he worked on had grown coats thicker and faster than he had seen in 40+ years here...(he was correct and we had nearly 30 nights where we got below 32 degrees).  So how did a horse whose coat NEVER changed in 13 years all of a sudden grow winter hair for the first time ever...and just before it got cold here?  And why did his hoof growth slow to a crawl in the winter and then explode in the spring while he shed his coat?  "Mother Nature", that's how!
  "Mother Nature" also explains why Gold is moving from West to East.  The West has "underpriced it" and the East has responded by purchasing it and taking delivery.  This will continue on and on and on until one of 2 things happen.  Either the price will rise to "ration" or slow demand...OR the West will run out of Gold...after which the price will rise.  THIS is how Mother Nature works in the supply and demand department.
  Let me go back to the beginning and talk again about JP Morgan.  What do you suppose "Mother Nature" has to say about their spectacular 128 out of 128 day continuous profit run?  Would she believe it to be possible?  If it's possible (it's not) could they really be earning anything of "real value" if they simply "cannot lose"?  I would also interject the question, "why have their Gold inventories nearly evaporated since the beginning of the year?".  But wait, Ted Butler recently claimed that JP Morgan has amassed a huge long position in Gold.  Is this "real" Gold or just that "paper" stuff?  There is a big difference you know and when all is said and done, "Mother Nature" will be the arbiter of real and final results.  She will not allow an engine to run on gasoline "contracts".  She will not allow stomachs to feel full with pork or bean futures contracts.  Do you see where this is going?
  The real and true endgame will result in "esoteric" investments being washed away while "real" goods will have value.  Mother Nature's ways will at some point assure that getting "something for nothing" will cease...because it's just plain "natural" that people would prefer not to GIVE "something for nothing".  I know the previous sentence "sounds" funny, or maybe not even written correctly but I assure you that it is correct and correctly written.  Please read it several times and then wonder to yourself if that is not truly a basic premise that may only be hidden for a time...but not ever eliminated.  Mother Nature works 24/7 with zero effort, trying to shove her hidden away in a closet is a big job...and one that gets more difficult each and every day.  No matter how many central bankers, economists, Congressmen, Prime Ministers or Presidents wish Mother Nature could be legislated away for "convenience", she will never be permanently altered nor abolished because "something" and "nothing" don't ever exist in the same sentence in her world!   Regards,  Bill H.




The total dealer comex gold falls again and remains well below 1 million oz at  812,095.194 oz or 25.25 tonnes of gold.The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer falls  tonight to  7.004 million oz or  217.88 tonnes.




Tonight, another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our  3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan). These 3 dealer gold inventory falls again  tonight  to an extremely low  20.656 tonnes



i) Scotia:  173,819.810 oz or 5.406 tonnes
ii) HSBC: 164,035.206 oz or  5.10 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan:  326,362.152 oz or 10.15 tonnes

total: 20.656 tonnes

Brinks dealer account which did have  the lions share of the dealer gold saw its inventory level remain constant tonight at 133,522.94 oz or 4.15 tonnes.  A few months ago they had over 13 tonnes of gold at its registered or dealer account.


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