Fun with charts....... focus on closing pm fix...
Feb high 1679 on 2/5.... Feb low of 1580 on 2/21
April high on April 1- 1580 ... April low - 1380 on 4/16
June high on June 3 at 1400 ... June low on June 27 at about 1190....
August high ( so far ) ... 8/1 at 1315....... and the low will be what ????If the trend for delivery months continues , we should see june low taken out.....and note the difference between the high and low is about 200 ! Let's see if this holds up ! If it does , a London pm fix of 1115 is in the cards.....
news and views......
From NSA surveillance straight to NY Fed's trading desk: Cueing the gold market
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2013-08-06 01:12. Section: Daily Dispatches
Gold Futures Dropped in Milliseconds Before ISM Report
By Ronald D. Orol
MarketWatch.com, New York
Monday, August 5, 2013
MarketWatch.com, New York
Monday, August 5, 2013
About 90 milliseconds before the 10 a.m. release of an upbeat Institute for Supply Management report about U.S. service-sector companies, the price of gold futures and gold ETFs fell.
Specifically, at 9:59:59 and 904 milliseconds, gold for December delivery dropped almost $2 a contract, from $1308.90 to $1307.00. The ETF GLD experienced a similar drop.
The move came right before ISM released a report stating that U.S. service-sector companies expanded at a sharply faster pace in July. The ISM said its survey of purchasing managers -- the executives who buy supplies for their companies -- climbed to 56.0% last month from 52.2% in June. Gold ended $8 an ounce lower.
In June, Thomson Reuters TRI reportedly accidentally released the ISM manufacturing survey to a small group of traders milliseconds before others received it.
Gold closed down $19.40 to $1283.20 (comex closing time ). Silver was down 19 cents to at $19.52 (comex closing time).
gold: $1283.00
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls rises a bit today and this time, still well below the 1 million oz mark at 935.514 thousand oz or 29.098 tonnes. This is dangerously low especially when we are now into the August delivery month. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) remains constant tonight and this time just above the 7 million oz barrier resting at 7.011 million oz or 218.07 tonnes.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remains constant tonight to 46,262.361 oz or 1.438 tonnes. It's dealer inventory also remains constant at 389,899.412 oz (12.127 tonnes) but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the May and June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its Comex gold dealer account registers only 24.490 tonnes of gold. The total of all of the dealers falls tonight to 29.098 tonnes!! Brinks continues to record a low of only 4.15 tonnes in its dealer account.
The GLD reported a huge loss of 2.1 tonnes in inventory tonight with a reading of 915.04 tonnes of gold. We had no change in silver inventory at the SLV today.
“Dollar-wise it was a pretty significant move,” said Eric Hunsader, director at Nanex, a provider of real-time data to traders. ISM did not return a call for comment.
The drop comes as the Securities and Exchange Commission is under pressure to take action to limit high-speed computerized traders, with retail investors expressing concern about fairness in the markets
It also comes as regulators have begun examining the practice of high-speed trading firms paying large fees to get early access to market-moving data.
In July Thomson Reuters agreed to stop offering early access to the University of Michigan’s consumer survey results, responding to an investigation by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4915/here-they-come
In the comments last evening, I posted that the early Asian trading was reminiscent of action in past delivery months. The selling continues this morning. Unfortunately it looks almost certain...Here they come, again.
So, here we go. If you're already wondering what I'm talking about, then I suppose the logical place to start is here: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4827/pattern-emerges In that post I described what had become the consistent and dominant Cartel pattern for raiding price and seizing physical metal. The correlations are too obvious to be ignored.
The past four "delivery" months of Comex gold have seen nearly identical selling, all of which began in earnest on the 12th day of the month. In each case, during the delivery months of Dec12, Feb13, Apr13 and Jun13, paper price was forced significantly lower. Besides having a chilling effect on market sentiment, this scheme also produced what had to have been the desired result...massive selling of the GLD which allowed equally massive physical withdrawals by the Authorised Participants, which the APs used in turn to settle the delivery contracts.
Well, here we are again. It is now the 6th day of the delivery month of August. Through yesterday, 1,968 August contracts had been delivered, with 1,478 coming back on the first day. Yesterday only saw 5 deliveries with JPM again taking all 5 into their house account. So, the pace of deliveries slows and...presto...price is raided in order to shake gold loose from the GLD and elsewhere.
Speaking of the GLD...we had another exact 1.5 metric ton withdrawal yesterday. This makes 4, perfect 1.5 ton withdrawals over the past three weeks. Hmmm.
On 7/16, the GLD shed 1.5 metric tonnes and it worked out to be 48,310 troy ounces. The very next day, it shed again 1.5 metric tonnes and 48,310 ounces. I thought that this was so odd that I had to write about it: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4846/gld-deception-reaches-new-level
One week later, on 7/23, it once again dropped exactly 1.5 metric tonnes for 48,307 ounces and now yesterday, another 1.5 metric tonnes and 48,300 troy ounces. Again, maybe I'm missing something and this isn't unusual at all. The chances that the exact same amount of selling is emerging causing the APs to tender the exact same number of shares...FOUR TIMES IN THE LAST 16 DAYS...well, anyway, I'm sure that's just random coincidence. (I'm also sure that it's just random coincidence that, after seeing zero withdrawals between 7/24 and 7/31, the GLD has seen 10.21 metric tonnes of "inventory" flow out in just the past three days. And what began three days ago? August Comex delivery!)
The trouble is, I've been keeping track of the daily changes to GLD "inventory" since the first of the year. In all of the withdrawals since 1/2/13...which now total 432.78 metric tonnes...the only other time that an exact 1.50 metric ton withdrawal was made was on 5/23. And now it has happened four times in three weeks??
Meanwhile (recognizing that you're probably getting sick of hearing this), GOFO rates are falling off a cliff and are now negative for an unprecedented 22nd consecutive day. By "falling off a cliff" here are the past five days:
DATE 1-month 2-month 3-month 6-month 12-month
31-Jul-13 -0.04833 -0.03333 -0.01167 0.06167 0.18000
01-Aug-13 -0.05667 -0.03333 -0.01333 0.05833 0.18000
02-Aug-13 -0.06000 -0.05167 -0.01833 0.05833 0.18333
05-Aug-13 -0.07167 -0.05667 -0.04000 0.05000 0.17000
06-Aug-13 -0.08833 -0.08000 -0.06333 0.02000 0.15667
Well, what to make of that? Notice that the 3-month GOFO is as negative today as the 1-month was just last Friday. There is no way that this is not indicative of extreme physical tightness in London. Though price has only risen $60 in the 4 weeks since GOFO first went negative, this condition will, absolutely, lead to much higher prices in the days and weeks ahead...if it doesn't lead to an outright collapse of the LBMA system first.
But first we have to deal with the coming raid. Prices are now once again significantly below all of the moving averages and the spec shorts are once again emboldened. Look for The Gold Cartel to spur them on this week. When your current existence is hand-to-mouth, you don't care about the long-term impacts. You just simply want to survive the current delivery month and live to play another day. Besides (and equally important), for every Spec seller of a Comex contract, there is a Cartel buyer. If more brainless specs can be drawn into the naked short side of the gold market, the better off The Cartel will be when prices eventually turn around for good. Again, Ted Butler estimates that JPM is already net long 85,000 contracts and has effectively cornered the Comex gold market. I'm sure they'll be happy to run this position up to 100,000 and beyond if the specs are willing to pound the other side.
Cooperating with the expected raid is all the talk once again of impending "taper". Again, please find an answer to this question for me:
If the price of gold is dropping due to the impending taper of QE, then why did this current selloff begin back in October, before QE even began?
Enquiring minds want to know! Perhaps this brutal, 10-month decline from $1800 to $1200 hasn't been inspired by monetary policy at all? Perhaps, instead, there is a lot more going on than what you are allowed to understand through the media. Just like Fukushima. If you've been paying attention these past 29 months, then yesterday's admission by the Japanese government comes as no surprise. If you had believed the media instead...with all of their lies and cover-up regarding the seriousness of the situation...then yesterday as a rude awakening. The same could be said with gold. You can either believe CNBS, BNN and Bloomberg and simply chalk up all of this to "investor selling due to tightening monetary policy" or you can use your own brain and trust your own instincts. You can re-read all that I've laid out for you above and then ponder whether or not you should be buying today or next week (as I want you to) or selling (as CNBS wants you to).
The most concise explanation for everything that I've seen yet comes from Mike Maloney in his interview last week of money manager Grant Williams. The entire interview is a MUST WATCH but it really gets cooking at about the 10:00 mark. Please watch it now.
OK, that's all for today. We're down $18 in gold but this is likely just the tip of the iceberg if Feb, April and June truly end up being our guide. Use this time to sit tight and accumulate some dry powder then let's see what the next 5-10 days bring in terms of a "sale".
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/08/august-6another-loss-of-21-tonnes-from.html
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
august 6/another loss of 2.1 tonnes from the GLD/another raid orchestrated by the bullion bank goons/
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down $19.40 to $1283.20 (comex closing time ). Silver was down 19 cents to at $19.52 (comex closing time).
In the access market today at 5 pm tonight here are the final prices:
gold: $1283.00
silver: $19.51
At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 1965 contracts to 133,714 with silver down 19 cents on Monday.
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts fell by 243 contracts to 397,618 with gold's fall in price yesterday by $8.00 cents. Today gold was hit for no apparent reason.
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls rises a bit today and this time, still well below the 1 million oz mark at 935.514 thousand oz or 29.098 tonnes. This is dangerously low especially when we are now into the August delivery month. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) remains constant tonight and this time just above the 7 million oz barrier resting at 7.011 million oz or 218.07 tonnes.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remains constant tonight to 46,262.361 oz or 1.438 tonnes. It's dealer inventory also remains constant at 389,899.412 oz (12.127 tonnes) but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the May and June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its Comex gold dealer account registers only 24.490 tonnes of gold. The total of all of the dealers falls tonight to 29.098 tonnes!! Brinks continues to record a low of only 4.15 tonnes in its dealer account.
The GLD reported a huge loss of 2.1 tonnes in inventory tonight with a reading of 915.04 tonnes of gold. We had no change in silver inventory at the SLV today.
Today, we had the 22th consecutive day for negative GOFO rates with the 3 months rate rising to -.0633% from Monday's -.018%. The one month GOFO rate rose in negativity to -.088%. The two month rate rose in negativity to -.0800 from Friday's -.0566% and the 6 month lowered to only +.02%. Thus metal is becoming increasingly scarce.
****
Comex gold/May contract month:
August 6.2013
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| nil |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
5 ( 500 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
2767 (276,700 oz)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
1968 (19,680 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
4598.77
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 7,118.728 |
*****
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