When the comic is the most serious person in the room......
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/07/july-82013gld-drops-again-to-94696-down.html
Gold closed up $22.00 to $1234.90 (comex closing time ). Silver is up by only 22 cents to $19.02 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1236.70
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 628 contracts to 136,347.
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls to 1.165 million oz or 36.23 tonnes. This is dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) falls again and registers a reading of 7.298 million oz or 226.99 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remains constant at 136,380.609 oz or 4.24 tonnes. Its dealer inventory also remains constant at 401,877.493 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its Comex gold dealer account registers only 26.03 tonnes of gold falling again from Wednesday.
JPMorgan's customer inventory is now at a extremely low 136.38 million oz or 4.24 tonnes of gold.
The GLD reported another loss in inventory tonight to the tune of 15.03 tonnes with an inventory reading of 946.96 tonnes. The SLV inventory of silver showed no gain nor any loss in silver inventory ounces. The game will end when the GLD runs out of physical metal.
Today we have physical commentaries from Gata's Chris Powell, John Embry talking with Eric King of Kingworldnews and Lawrence Williams of Mineweb delves through the figures on China's massive importing of gold.
On the paper side of things, we have commentaries from Wolf Richter on Italy. Bill Holter and Bruce Krasting.
The total gold comex open interest surprisingly rose by a whopping 13,890 contracts from 415,070 up to 428,960 with gold falling by $40.00 on Friday.No doubt that the huge rise in OI was due to speculators piling on new short positions. They are slowly being let to the slaughterhouse. We are now into the the non active July contract and here the OI rests at 93 up 2 contracts . We had 10 delivery notice filed on Friday so in essence we gained 12 contracts or an additional 1200 oz gold will stand for the July delivery month. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 1211 contracts from 208,880 up to 216,378. The estimated volume today was fair at 157,277 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was very good at 255,946.
The total silver Comex OI rose by 628 contracts with silver falling in price on Friday by 96 cents. The total of all comex silver OI stands at 136,347 contracts. We are now into the big delivery month of July and here the OI fell by 254 contracts down to 1480. We had 221 notices filed on Friday so in essence we lost 33 contracts or 165,000 oz. The next big delivery month is September and here the OI rose by 1211 contracts up to 81,049. The estimated volume today was anemic coming in at only 29,412 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was good at 60,423.
We had 0 customer deposits today :
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of HSBC: 114,945.45 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 302.773 oz
i) Customer withdrawals: 115,248.223 oz
total customer withdrawals: 115,248.223 oz
Today we had 0 adjustments
Thus tonight we have the following JPMorgan gold inventory which remains constant: (same as Friday's level)
JPM dealer inventory: 401,877.493 oz 12.50 tonnes
JPM customer inventory: 136,380.609 oz or 4.24 tonnes
As we reported to you 5 weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May (May 28), we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of tonight 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
and on, June 28.2013 we had 4,817.251 oz leave jPMorgan customer account
and on Friday July 5.2013: we had 6,831.54 oz leave jPMorgan customer account
Summary for the last week of issuance from JPMorgan:
On Friday, June 28th we had 23 notices filed and all of these were issued by JPMorgan on the customer side.
Tuesday we had 24 contracts were issued and all from the dealer or house account.
Thursday, 20 contracts were issued and all from JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Friday,we had 10 contracts were issued and all from JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
On Friday, the 28th of June, I reported that we had from the beginning of June, 2543 notices or 254,300 oz issued. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 325,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 229,493.75 (which includes Friday's withdrawal customer side 6,831.54), this still leaves 96,417.25 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
The total dealer comex gold lowers again and it rests tonight at 1.165 million oz or 36.23 tonnes of gold.The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer falls again tonight to 7.298 million oz or 226.99 tonnes..
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
On June 11.2013 we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account(dealer account) since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory.
Tuesday, July 2: 24 contracts (notices) were issued by JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Wednesday: July 3: 20 contracts were issued by JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Friday: July 5: 10 contracts were issued byJPMorgan's dealer our house account.
You will also recall 4 weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 68,444.61 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out(on the dealer side), leaving the dealer side at 401,877.493 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 21 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan). Their dealer gold remains at 26.03 tonnes tonight
i) Scotia: 199,044,026 oz or 6.19 tonnes (prev 7.204 tonnes)
ii) HSBC: 236,168.152 oz or 7.34 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 401,877.493 oz or 12.50 tonnes
total: 26.03 tonnes
Brinks dealer account which did have the lions share of the dealer gold remains constant after falling badly Friday night to 314,201.98 oz or 9.77 tonnes (from 13.909 tonnes)
Today we had 0 notices served upon our longs for nil oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in July, I take the OI for July (93) and subtract out today's notices (0) which leaves us with 93 notices still left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
78 contracts served x 100 oz = 7800 oz, + 93 contracts left to be served upon x 100 oz = 9300 oz to give us 17,100 oz or .53185 tonnes of gold. We gained 1200 additional gold ounces standing for July.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold falls to a very dangerously low level of only 36.23 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the major part of the 30.70 tonnes from June issued by JPM on its dealer side has yet to leave.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 136,380.609 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 401,877.493 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 98,122.51 oz of deficient gold.
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 26.03 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.
i) Out of Scotia; 60,164.30 oz
total customer withdrawal : 60,164.30 oz
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:
July 8.2013: (we lost an astronomical 15.03 tonnes of gold)
July 5.2013: we lost 2.7 tonnes
July 3.2013: zero lost
* * *
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4824/amazing-cot-and-bpr-gold
GUIDE
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/07/july-82013gld-drops-again-to-94696-down.html
Monday, July 8, 2013
July 8.2013/GLD drops again to 946.96 down 15.03 tonnes/total dealer comex gold drops to 36.23 tonnes of gold/total comex gold drops to 226.99 tonnes
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up $22.00 to $1234.90 (comex closing time ). Silver is up by only 22 cents to $19.02 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1236.70
silver: $19.08
Today despite gold and silver up dramatically, the gold shares fell off into negative territory. Gold shone today but silver hardly moved. This is generally a sure signal that the bankers wish to raid again tomorrow.
Their aim is to get all of the large speculators on the short end while the commercials move to the long end.
Today despite gold and silver up dramatically, the gold shares fell off into negative territory. Gold shone today but silver hardly moved. This is generally a sure signal that the bankers wish to raid again tomorrow.
Their aim is to get all of the large speculators on the short end while the commercials move to the long end.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 628 contracts to 136,347.
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 13,890 contracts to 428,960 with gold's all in price by $40.00 on Friday. No doubt we had new speculators enter the arena on the short side and the commercials continued to cover. Their aim to become net long in gold.
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls to 1.165 million oz or 36.23 tonnes. This is dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) falls again and registers a reading of 7.298 million oz or 226.99 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remains constant at 136,380.609 oz or 4.24 tonnes. Its dealer inventory also remains constant at 401,877.493 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its Comex gold dealer account registers only 26.03 tonnes of gold falling again from Wednesday.
JPMorgan's customer inventory is now at a extremely low 136.38 million oz or 4.24 tonnes of gold.
The GLD reported another loss in inventory tonight to the tune of 15.03 tonnes with an inventory reading of 946.96 tonnes. The SLV inventory of silver showed no gain nor any loss in silver inventory ounces. The game will end when the GLD runs out of physical metal.
On the paper side of things, we have commentaries from Wolf Richter on Italy. Bill Holter and Bruce Krasting.
We will go over these and many other stories today, but first......
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest surprisingly rose by a whopping 13,890 contracts from 415,070 up to 428,960 with gold falling by $40.00 on Friday.No doubt that the huge rise in OI was due to speculators piling on new short positions. They are slowly being let to the slaughterhouse. We are now into the the non active July contract and here the OI rests at 93 up 2 contracts . We had 10 delivery notice filed on Friday so in essence we gained 12 contracts or an additional 1200 oz gold will stand for the July delivery month. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 1211 contracts from 208,880 up to 216,378. The estimated volume today was fair at 157,277 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was very good at 255,946.
The total silver Comex OI rose by 628 contracts with silver falling in price on Friday by 96 cents. The total of all comex silver OI stands at 136,347 contracts. We are now into the big delivery month of July and here the OI fell by 254 contracts down to 1480. We had 221 notices filed on Friday so in essence we lost 33 contracts or 165,000 oz. The next big delivery month is September and here the OI rose by 1211 contracts up to 81,049. The estimated volume today was anemic coming in at only 29,412 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was good at 60,423.
Comex gold/May contract month:
July 8/2013
the July contract month
the July contract month
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
5,037.289 oz(Manfra)
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
115,248.223 (HSBC,Scotia)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| nil |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
nil (zero oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
93 (9300 oz)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
78 (7800 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
150,263.61 oz
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 156,992.41 oz |
We had huge activity at the gold vaults
The dealer had 0 deposits but did have 1 withdrawal.
i) from the dealer Manfra: 5,037.289 oz
total dealer withdrawal: 5,037.289 oz
i) from the dealer Manfra: 5,037.289 oz
total dealer withdrawal: 5,037.289 oz
We had 0 customer deposits today :
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of HSBC: 114,945.45 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 302.773 oz
i) Customer withdrawals: 115,248.223 oz
total customer withdrawals: 115,248.223 oz
Today we had 0 adjustments
Thus tonight we have the following JPMorgan gold inventory which remains constant: (same as Friday's level)
JPM dealer inventory: 401,877.493 oz 12.50 tonnes
JPM customer inventory: 136,380.609 oz or 4.24 tonnes
As we reported to you 5 weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May (May 28), we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of tonight 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
and on, June 28.2013 we had 4,817.251 oz leave jPMorgan customer account
and on Friday July 5.2013: we had 6,831.54 oz leave jPMorgan customer account
Summary for the last week of issuance from JPMorgan:
On Friday, June 28th we had 23 notices filed and all of these were issued by JPMorgan on the customer side.
Tuesday we had 24 contracts were issued and all from the dealer or house account.
Thursday, 20 contracts were issued and all from JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Friday,we had 10 contracts were issued and all from JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
On Friday, the 28th of June, I reported that we had from the beginning of June, 2543 notices or 254,300 oz issued. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 325,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 229,493.75 (which includes Friday's withdrawal customer side 6,831.54), this still leaves 96,417.25 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
The total dealer comex gold lowers again and it rests tonight at 1.165 million oz or 36.23 tonnes of gold.The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer falls again tonight to 7.298 million oz or 226.99 tonnes..
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
On June 11.2013 we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account(dealer account) since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory.
Tuesday, July 2: 24 contracts (notices) were issued by JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Wednesday: July 3: 20 contracts were issued by JPMorgan's dealer or house account.
Friday: July 5: 10 contracts were issued byJPMorgan's dealer our house account.
You will also recall 4 weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 68,444.61 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out(on the dealer side), leaving the dealer side at 401,877.493 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 21 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday : 0
Wednesday : 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday:0
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday:0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0
Tuesday: 24
Wednesday: 20
Thursday/Friday: 10
Monday: 0
Thus, 5000 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) for the month of June and the beginning of July for 500,000 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 401,877.493 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 98,122.51 oz (401,877.493 inventory - 500,000 oz issued = -98,122.51 oz)
In other words, the entire 401,877.493 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 98,122.51 of additional deficient gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday:0
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday:0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0
Tuesday: 24
Wednesday: 20
Thursday/Friday: 10
Monday: 0
Thus, 5000 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) for the month of June and the beginning of July for 500,000 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 401,877.493 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 98,122.51 oz (401,877.493 inventory - 500,000 oz issued = -98,122.51 oz)
In other words, the entire 401,877.493 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 98,122.51 of additional deficient gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan). Their dealer gold remains at 26.03 tonnes tonight
i) Scotia: 199,044,026 oz or 6.19 tonnes (prev 7.204 tonnes)
ii) HSBC: 236,168.152 oz or 7.34 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 401,877.493 oz or 12.50 tonnes
total: 26.03 tonnes
Brinks dealer account which did have the lions share of the dealer gold remains constant after falling badly Friday night to 314,201.98 oz or 9.77 tonnes (from 13.909 tonnes)
Today we had 0 notices served upon our longs for nil oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in July, I take the OI for July (93) and subtract out today's notices (0) which leaves us with 93 notices still left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
78 contracts served x 100 oz = 7800 oz, + 93 contracts left to be served upon x 100 oz = 9300 oz to give us 17,100 oz or .53185 tonnes of gold. We gained 1200 additional gold ounces standing for July.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold falls to a very dangerously low level of only 36.23 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the major part of the 30.70 tonnes from June issued by JPM on its dealer side has yet to leave.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 136,380.609 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 401,877.493 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 98,122.51 oz of deficient gold.
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 26.03 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.
end
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
Silver:
July 8/2013: July silver contract month:
July contract month
July contract month
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 90,789.31 oz(CNT) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 60,164.30 oz ( Scotia,) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 17 (85,000 oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1463 (7,315,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1828 (9,140,000) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 95,634.01 |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 890,858.03 oz |
Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal.
i) out of the dealer CNT: 90,789.31 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) out of the dealer CNT: 90,789.31 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Scotia; 60,164.30 oz
total customer withdrawal : 60,164.30 oz
we had 0 adjustments today
Thus we have the following:
Thus we have the following:
Registered silver at : 46.85 million oz
total of all silver: 165.605 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 17 notices filed for 85,000 oz today.
To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of July, I take the number of contracts served thus far this month at 1828 x 5,000 oz per contract = 9,140,000 oz + 1463 notices left to be served upon our longs x 5000 oz per contract = 7,315,000 to give us a total of 16,455,000 oz
we lost 33 contracts or 165,000 oz will not stand for silver this month.
we lost 33 contracts or 165,000 oz will not stand for silver this month.
Thus here are the standings:
1828 contracts served x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 9,140,000 oz + 1463 notices x 5,000 oz or = 7,3155,000 = 16,455,000 oz
end
The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:
July 8.2013: (we lost an astronomical 15.03 tonnes of gold)
Tonnes946.96
Ounces30,445,700.80
Value US$37.586 billion
July 5.2013: we lost 2.7 tonnes
Tonnes961.99
Ounces30,928,840.80
Value US$37.488 billion
July 3.2013: zero lost
Tonnes964.69
Ounces31,015,807.97
Value US$38.7506 billion
* * *
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4824/amazing-cot-and-bpr-gold
An Amazing CoT and BPR for Gold
Released just this afternoon, the July Bank Participation Report and the latest Commitment of Traders Report are so interesting that I felt they justified this new post.
So, let's dive right in. I'm not going to spend much time talking about silver because the data is somewhat skewed this week by the expiration of the July13 contract. The Large Specs added 3800 net long and the Commercials added 3700 net short, all due to expiration and rollovers and now we see why silver outperformed gold by such a wide margin last week.
The reports for gold, on the other hand, are astonishing. Let's start with the CoT. For the reporting week, price fell by $32 while total OI rose by 19,752 contracts. Check out these internals:
Large Specs dumped another 6,200 longs and added 7,200 additional shorts. This brings their net position down to just 20,700 contracts and drops their total net long ratio down to a preposterously low 1.15:1. Again, for perspective, shortly after QE∞ was announced last fall, the gold Large Specs were net long over 210,000 contracts. This means that, in the time since, they've been coerced into dropping their long exposure by over 90%.
On the all-important flip side, The Gold Cartel added another 21,427 new longs last week through the Tuesday cutoff. Because they also added 8,995 new shorts, their net short position onlydeclined by over 12,000 contracts. However...and here comes the amazing part...their new net short position is just 22,776 contracts, roughly 70 metric tonnes of paper gold, and their updated net short ratio is also preposterously low at 1.12:1.
Remember, this entire "event" from the announcement of QE∞ last fall to today, has been staged in order to give The Bullion Banks the time and the ability to cover their massive paper short position. When QE∞ was announced in September of last year, the total Cartel net short position was 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. As of last Tuesday, they are now net short just 70 metric tonnes. That's an incredible and amazing drop of over 90%.
Now get this, the CoT survey was taken last Tuesday. On Wednesday and Friday of last week, the total dollar move in gold was down another $32. Over those two days, the total open interest n gold rose by 18,561 contracts. It recent form follows, then it is safe to conclude that the vast majority of this new OI was contract initiation on the short side by the Large Specs. If that's the case, then we headed into last weekend with a total Gold Cartel net short position as low as 5,000 contracts. TOTAL!! And now you see why I find this so incredible and amazing.
Next let's consider this month's Bank Participation Report. This aggregated report gives us a once-a-month look at the gross positions of those traders classified as banks, both U.S. and non-U.S. Now check this out...let's start with the report from last October so that you can see from another perspective just how steep the changes have been in the nine months since.
GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT
U.S. Banks 40,625 146,809
Non U.S. Banks 34,881 113,445
TOTAL 75,506 248,254
And now here are the numbers from last month (June). Note that the banks had moved from net short position of 172,748 to a small net long position of 4,582. This got everyone's attention and was well summarized here: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/06/cftc-gold-and-silver-bank-participation.html
GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT
U.S. Banks 56,751 27,129
Non U.S. Banks 24,035 49,075
TOTAL 80,786 76,204
Well, we've all been waiting with baited breath for the July report and it just came in a few minutes ago. Would the banks continue to cover on these falling prices or were they adding to the downside momentum? We got our answer:
GROSS LONG GROSS SHORT
U.S. Banks 69,565 24,939
Non U.S. Banks 34,904 58,565
TOTAL 104,560 83,859
The total net long position grew by over 16,000 contracts to an astounding 20,701. But drill a little deeper...The U.S. banks actually added net longs of 15,000! The only thing holding the overall net position in check was the 9,500 new shorts put on by non U.S. banks (HSBC? Scotia? Barclays? UBS?) Do you think that The Fed warns, plans and advises the non-U.S. banks as clearly and succinctly as they do the U.S. banks?? The Fed IS the U.S. Banks. If Barclays or UBS is too stupid to see what's going on and they are actually adding shorts at these prices, well Hells Bells, go right ahead! Their selling simply allows the U.S. Banks to cover even more!
Look, I know these past nine months have been brutal and we've all suffered through the almost-daily pain of continued losses. But this is almost over! Yes, prices may continue lower, stopping and turning who knows where. However, I am 100% confident in my analysis of The Big Picture here. The major, too-big-to-fail, Fed-Primary-Dealer and Bullion Banks have now fully gotten themselves out from under what had been an extraordinarily wrong-footed net short position of over 146,000 contracts last autumn. They are now net long nearly 45,000 contracts! (And certainly more than that after last Wednesday and Friday.) That flip of 191,000 contracts took place while price declined by 30% from $1800 to $1250 and represents a change of position equaling over 595 metric tonnes.
Please, I beg you, remain patient and continue to stack physical metal. You will soon be rewarded with a rally that will surprise even the most ardent of bulls.
TF
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