http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/07/july-1gld-bleeds-another-12-tonnestotal.html
Gold closed up $31.10 to $1255.90 (comex closing time ). Silver rose by 8 cents to $19.56 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1252.60
At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 706 contracts to 138,472.
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls again as it rests tonight at 1.336 million oz or 41.55 tonnes. This is getting dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) rose slightly again and this time it rests at 7.502 million oz or 233.34 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remained constant today at 143,212.149 oz or 4.45 tonnes. Its dealer inventory remains at 401,877.493 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its gold Comex dealer account registers only 27.044 tonnes of gold
The GLD reported another bleed of 1.2 tonnes in inventory. The SLV inventory of silver showed no gain nor loss of inventory.
Today we have great physical commentaries from Bill Holter of Miles Franklin,
Michael Kosares, Alasdair Macleod and Oppenheimer's Carter Worth.
On the paper side of things, we have a great commentary from Ambrose Pritchard Evans of the rise of Marine LePen in France, Mark Grant on the lack of a European bank union, and Bloomberg's Fam, on the spiraling out of control, Egypt.
The total gold comex open interest rose by a rather large 9606 contracts from 399,475 up to 409,081 with gold rising by $12.40 on Friday. We are now into the the non active July contract and here the OI rests at 150 down 38 contracts . We had 23 delivery notices filed on Friday so in essence we lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold standing for the July delivery month. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 2874 contracts from 221,260 up to 224,134. The estimated volume today was good at 204,763 contracts.(remember no rollovers). The confirmed volume on Friday was huge at 338,201.
The total silver Comex OI surprisingly fell by 706 contracts with silver rising in price Friday by 88 cents.The total of all comex silver OI stands at 138,472 contracts. We are now into the big delivery month of July and here the OI fell by 660 contracts down to 2996. We had 500 notices filed today so in essence we lost 160 contracts or 800,000 oz rolled or was cash settled. The estimated volume today was good coming in at 50,728 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was excellent at 90,425.
We had one customer deposits today :
i) Into Scotia: 4,817.232 oz
total customer deposits: 4,817.232 oz
It is very strange that having left the big delivery month of June, we are witnessing hardly any gold enter the dealer to settle upon contracts.
we had 1 small customer withdrawals
i) Out of HSBC: 702.57 oz
total customer withdrawals: 702.57 oz
Today we had 1 adjustment
i) Out of HSBC: 16,515.024 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer account of HSBC. No doubt this was used to settle upon longs standing and HSBC issuance.
Thus tonight we have the following JPMorgan gold inventory: (same as Friday)
JPM dealer inventory: 401,877.493 oz 12.50 tonnes
JPM customer inventory: 143,212.149 oz or 4.45 tonnes
As we reported to you 4 weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May (May 28), we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of tonight 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
and on, June 28.2013 we had 4,817.251 oz leave jPMorgan
On Friday, June 28th we had 23 notices filed and all of these were issued by JPMorgan on the customer side.
Today, one contract was issued but not from JPMorgan.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
Thus on JPMorgan customer side:
On Friday, the 28th of June, I reported that we had from the beginning of June, 2543 notices or 254,300 oz issued. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 325,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 222,662.21 (which includes Friday's withdrawal customer side 4,817.25), this still leaves 103,248.79 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
The total dealer comex gold falls again and it rests tonight at its nadir of 1.336 million oz or 41.55 tonnes of gold.
The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer rise slightly again tonight to 7.502 million oz or 233.34 tonnes..
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
On June 11.2013 we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account(dealer account) since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory
You will also recall three weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 68,444.61 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out(on the dealer side), leaving the dealer side at 401,877.493 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 17 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan). Their dealer gold lowered to to 27.044 tonnes tonight from 27.55)
i) Scotia: 231,619.164 oz or 7.204 tonnes ( last Monday... 285,596.23 oz or 8.88 tonnes)
ii) HSBC: 236,168.152 oz or 7.34 tonnes (Friday 252,683.176 oz or 7.85 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 401,877.493 oz or 12.50 tonnes (last Thursday 408,709.03 oz , 12.71 tonnes)
Brinks dealer account has the lions share of the dealer gold at 447,198.56 oz 13.909 tonnes
Today we had 1 notices served upon our longs for 100 oz of gold (and none issued by JPMorgan customer). In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in July, I take the OI for July (150) and subtract out today's notices (1) which leaves us with 149 notices still left to be served upon our longs.
Thus on first day notice we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
24 contracts served x 100 oz = 2400 oz, + 149 contracts left to be served upon x 100 oz = 14,900 oz to give us 17,300 oz or .53 tonnes of gold. We lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold that will not stand in July.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold falls to a very dangerously low level of only 41.55 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the major part of the 30.70 tonnes from June issued by JPM on its dealer side has yet to leave.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 143,212.149 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 401,877.493 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 92,722.51 oz of deficient gold.
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 27.044 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.
i) Out of Brinks; 370,849.71 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 21,865.19 oz
total customer withdrawal : 392,714.903 oz
Monday, July 1, 2013
July 1/GLD bleeds another 1.2 tonnes/Total dealer comex falls again to 1.336 million oz/ China up its consumption for the first six months to 800 tonnes and will certainly topple 1000 tonnes/yr/
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up $31.10 to $1255.90 (comex closing time ). Silver rose by 8 cents to $19.56 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1252.60
silver: $19.64
At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 706 contracts to 138,472.
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 9606 contracts to 409,081 with gold's rise in price on Friday.
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold falls again as it rests tonight at 1.336 million oz or 41.55 tonnes. This is getting dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) rose slightly again and this time it rests at 7.502 million oz or 233.34 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory remained constant today at 143,212.149 oz or 4.45 tonnes. Its dealer inventory remains at 401,877.493 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan) in its gold Comex dealer account registers only 27.044 tonnes of gold
The GLD reported another bleed of 1.2 tonnes in inventory. The SLV inventory of silver showed no gain nor loss of inventory.
Michael Kosares, Alasdair Macleod and Oppenheimer's Carter Worth.
On the paper side of things, we have a great commentary from Ambrose Pritchard Evans of the rise of Marine LePen in France, Mark Grant on the lack of a European bank union, and Bloomberg's Fam, on the spiraling out of control, Egypt.
We will go over these and many other stories today, but first......
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest rose by a rather large 9606 contracts from 399,475 up to 409,081 with gold rising by $12.40 on Friday. We are now into the the non active July contract and here the OI rests at 150 down 38 contracts . We had 23 delivery notices filed on Friday so in essence we lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold standing for the July delivery month. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 2874 contracts from 221,260 up to 224,134. The estimated volume today was good at 204,763 contracts.(remember no rollovers). The confirmed volume on Friday was huge at 338,201.
The total silver Comex OI surprisingly fell by 706 contracts with silver rising in price Friday by 88 cents.The total of all comex silver OI stands at 138,472 contracts. We are now into the big delivery month of July and here the OI fell by 660 contracts down to 2996. We had 500 notices filed today so in essence we lost 160 contracts or 800,000 oz rolled or was cash settled. The estimated volume today was good coming in at 50,728 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was excellent at 90,425.
Comex gold/May contract month:
July 1/2013
the July opening contract month
the July opening contract month
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
702.57 (HSBC)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| 4817.232 (Scotia) |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
1 (100 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
149 (14,900 oz)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
24 (2400 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
| |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 34,848.35 oz |
We again had little activity at the gold vaults
The dealer again 0 deposits and no withdrawals.
We had one customer deposits today :
i) Into Scotia: 4,817.232 oz
total customer deposits: 4,817.232 oz
It is very strange that having left the big delivery month of June, we are witnessing hardly any gold enter the dealer to settle upon contracts.
we had 1 small customer withdrawals
i) Out of HSBC: 702.57 oz
total customer withdrawals: 702.57 oz
Today we had 1 adjustment
i) Out of HSBC: 16,515.024 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer account of HSBC. No doubt this was used to settle upon longs standing and HSBC issuance.
Thus tonight we have the following JPMorgan gold inventory: (same as Friday)
JPM dealer inventory: 401,877.493 oz 12.50 tonnes
JPM customer inventory: 143,212.149 oz or 4.45 tonnes
As we reported to you 4 weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May (May 28), we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of tonight 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
and on, June 28.2013 we had 4,817.251 oz leave jPMorgan
On Friday, June 28th we had 23 notices filed and all of these were issued by JPMorgan on the customer side.
Today, one contract was issued but not from JPMorgan.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
Thus on JPMorgan customer side:
On Friday, the 28th of June, I reported that we had from the beginning of June, 2543 notices or 254,300 oz issued. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 325,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 222,662.21 (which includes Friday's withdrawal customer side 4,817.25), this still leaves 103,248.79 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
The total dealer comex gold falls again and it rests tonight at its nadir of 1.336 million oz or 41.55 tonnes of gold.
The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer rise slightly again tonight to 7.502 million oz or 233.34 tonnes..
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
On June 11.2013 we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account(dealer account) since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory
You will also recall three weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 68,444.61 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out(on the dealer side), leaving the dealer side at 401,877.493 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 17 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday : 0
Wednesday : 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday:0
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday:0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0
Thus, 4946 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) for the month of June for 494,600 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 401,877.493 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 92,722.51 oz (401,877.493 inventory - 494,600 oz issued = 92,722.51 oz)
In other words, the entire 401,877.493 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 92,722.51 of additional deficient gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday:0
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday:0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0
Thus, 4946 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) for the month of June for 494,600 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 401,877.493 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 92,722.51 oz (401,877.493 inventory - 494,600 oz issued = 92,722.51 oz)
In other words, the entire 401,877.493 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 92,722.51 of additional deficient gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks(Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan). Their dealer gold lowered to to 27.044 tonnes tonight from 27.55)
i) Scotia: 231,619.164 oz or 7.204 tonnes ( last Monday... 285,596.23 oz or 8.88 tonnes)
ii) HSBC: 236,168.152 oz or 7.34 tonnes (Friday 252,683.176 oz or 7.85 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 401,877.493 oz or 12.50 tonnes (last Thursday 408,709.03 oz , 12.71 tonnes)
Brinks dealer account has the lions share of the dealer gold at 447,198.56 oz 13.909 tonnes
Today we had 1 notices served upon our longs for 100 oz of gold (and none issued by JPMorgan customer). In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in July, I take the OI for July (150) and subtract out today's notices (1) which leaves us with 149 notices still left to be served upon our longs.
Thus on first day notice we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:
24 contracts served x 100 oz = 2400 oz, + 149 contracts left to be served upon x 100 oz = 14,900 oz to give us 17,300 oz or .53 tonnes of gold. We lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz of gold that will not stand in July.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold falls to a very dangerously low level of only 41.55 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the major part of the 30.70 tonnes from June issued by JPM on its dealer side has yet to leave.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 143,212.149 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 401,877.493 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 92,722.51 oz of deficient gold.
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 27.044 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account.
end
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
Silver:
July 1/2013: July silver contract month:
opening stats:
opening stats:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 4844.70 (Brinks) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 392,714.903 oz (Brinks , Delaware,) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2,019,727 oz (CNT,Scotia) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 500 (2,500,000 oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2496 (12,480,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 979 (4,895,000) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 4844.70 |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 401,855.17 oz |
Today, we had huge activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal.
i) Out of Brinks dealer: 4844.70 oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 602,024.90 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 1,417,702.29
total customer deposit: 2,019,727.19
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks dealer: 4844.70 oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 602,024.90 oz
ii) Into Scotia: 1,417,702.29
total customer deposit: 2,019,727.19
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks; 370,849.71 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 21,865.19 oz
total customer withdrawal : 392,714.903 oz
we had 3 adjustments today
i) out of JPMorgan 20,052.35 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer
ii) Out of CNT: 1,000,536.85 oz out of the customer and into the dealer.
iii) Out of HSBC: 45,904.80 oz out of the dealer and into the customer.
i) out of JPMorgan 20,052.35 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer
ii) Out of CNT: 1,000,536.85 oz out of the customer and into the dealer.
iii) Out of HSBC: 45,904.80 oz out of the dealer and into the customer.
Registered silver at : 42.874 million oz
total of all silver: 166.117 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 500 notices filed for 2,500,000 oz today.
To calculate what will stand for this active delivery month of July, I take the number of contracts served thus far this month at 979 x 5,000 oz per contract = 4,895,000 oz + 2496 notices left to be served upon our longs x 5000 oz per contract = 12,480,000 to give us a total of 17,275,000 oz
we lost 181 contracts or 905,000 oz will not stand in July from the first day reading.
we lost 181 contracts or 905,000 oz will not stand in July from the first day reading.
Thus on this second day notice here are the standings:
979 contracts served x 5000 oz per contract (served) or 4,895,000 oz + 2496 notices x 5,000 oz or 12,480,000 = 17,275,000 oz,
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:
July 1/2013: we had another nose bleed of 1.2 tonnes of gold.
July 1/2013: we had another nose bleed of 1.2 tonnes of gold.
Tonnes968.30
Ounces31,131,769.95
Value US$38.670 billion
June 28.2013:
Tonnes969.50
Ounces31,170,424.23
Value US$37.137,611 billion
selected news and views......
Very important...author Michael Kosares
Bernanke's conundrum -- What it might mean for gold
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2013-07-01 16:47. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:46p ET Monday, July 1, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
With the Federal Reserve apparently signalling that it doesn't want to monetize quite as much U.S. government debt, it seems that foreign governments and private investors don't want to own as much of it either. This, Centennial Precious Metals proprietor Michael Kosares writes, indicates that that Fed won't be able to "taper" its bond purchases at all. Indeed, Kosares adds, QE4 may already have begun, and investors should watch what the Fed does, not what it says. Kosares' commentary is headlined "Bernanke's Conundrum -- What It Might Mean for Gold" and it's posted at Centennial's Internet site, USAGold.com, here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
end
A remarkable commentary from Alasdair Macleod who states that in gold as of last week, the top 4 USA banks are net long in gold. In silver, they are still net short by 18,000 contracts but the large specs are short an unprecedented to 133 million oz. Not only that but the manufacturers are also buying the silver metal creating an illiquid market/
a must read...
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)
A remarkable commentary from Alasdair Macleod who states that in gold as of last week, the top 4 USA banks are net long in gold. In silver, they are still net short by 18,000 contracts but the large specs are short an unprecedented to 133 million oz. Not only that but the manufacturers are also buying the silver metal creating an illiquid market/
a must read...
(courtesy Alasdair Macleod/GATA)
Alasdair Macleod: Gold's undervaluation is extreme
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2013-07-01 17:10. Section: Daily Dispatches
The "reason"..
1:08p ET Monday, July 1, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In a comprehensive review of the world financial situation, GoldMoney's research director, Alasdair Macleod, concludes that gold is terribly underpriced relative to all the other money floating around and that central banks are panicking over interest rates and the failure of the gold price plunge they engineered, which only intensified demand for real metal.
Macleod concludes about gold: "The conditions are in place for a spectacular price readjustment on valuation and economic grounds alone. Furthermore, the short positions on Comex have been transferred to the hedge funds, leaving the bullion banks less exposed to escalating systemic risks. It is now in the latter's interests to keep their gold and silver books as level as possible as a bear squeeze on the market shorts gets under way and starts the revaluation process."
Macleod's commentary is headlined "Gold's Undervaluation Is Extreme" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Bill Holter in his latest commentary spells out exactly why we are buying gold:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
The "reason"..
I'd like to write about something that is so basic that you may scratch your head and wonder why I would even bother. I have written many times and others have shown that the "price" of Gold is manipulated. This is no longer "conspiracy theory", it is fact. I titled this piece "the reason" and will discuss it from 2 standpoints, from the manipulators and from yours.
First, "why" is there any reason to rig the price of Gold? This is easy, governments have every reason TO rig the price and in a fiat world where the money that they create competes directly with Gold, they would be crazy not to suppress the price of their competitor. Gold is the canary in the Goldmine. If the canary dies then you will soon be dead also just as it follows that if the price of Gold is "rising" in Dollars or Euros or Yen, "something" must be wrong with them. The thought process of central banks is that if you can disconnect the alarm then there will be no fire...or at least no one will know that there's a fire. It is truly this simple, the central banks believed (for too long) that if they could keep the lid on the price of Gold then they could do whatever they pleased and no one would know. This was true 10 or 20 years ago, they had supply that they could feed into the market...this excess supply is very close to being used up. We know this because demand has exceeded known supply by at least 1,500 tons per year for going on close to 20 years, so far more than half of what centrals banks had...is already gone.
Then from YOUR standpoint, if you know that the price of Gold is "rigged"...you can go one of 2 ways in your train of thought. Some people think, "oh I wouldn't touch it BECAUSE the price is rigged". Or, as I believe, this IS the very reason to own Gold, because you are able to purchase it cheaper than if it were in a freely traded market. If central banks want to "subsidize" Gold buyers then so be it, don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Just buy it and put it away because you know that it is cheaper than a freely traded true market price.
Until last Wednesday or maybe Thursday there was a litany of "bashers" jumping up and down and screaming that the "permabulls" are wrong and that the likes of Martin Armstrong are correct. If you agree that the evidence clearly points to the prices of Gold and Silver being manipulated then it follows that you should look for "bottoms". If you cannot see that Gold is clearly manipulated (there is clear motive, clear ability in the paper markets and clear evidence of action) then I cannot help you (Armstrong).
If you understand that the price is manipulated and has been for years now then how can you "risk" trying to call a top? How can trade and "hope" that you guess correctly? What if you guess wrong and the rigging either stops or fails? How do you get back in? Gold has corrected and Silver has crashed by more than 50% on the paper markets but the upside is many many times the current prices, do you risk getting in maybe 10% or even 20% lower than current prices while sitting on the sidelines? The "sidelines" being "cash Dollars, Euros or Yen etc.) and out of something that when all is said and done will trade at multiples of current prices in fiat?
Trying to call "top" in a long term bull market is a mugs game as you can only truly be correct 1 time. This "1 time" is when the bull market is over for good or at least for many years. For example, would you have done the right thing in 1976 by selling your Gold at close to $200 if you were not back in as it traded down close to $100? As Richard Russell is fond of saying, "very very few people ever ride a bull market from start to finish". I am going to say that there is FAR more risk in NOT owning Gold than owning it. I am not even talking about the possibility of a finite percentage loss versus the possibility infinite gains, I am talking about the potential (probability in my view) of the entire financial system coming down. It was only last Monday that we heard of Chinese banks going offline and their whole system having liquidity problems...were this to spread and go global would you rather have Dollars in a bank or Gold out of the system? Do you believe this scenario to be possible (I hope you do)? If so do you have any idea when? Where? Are you willing to bet that you or someone else that you listen to is smart enough to know "when"?
Here is the point, if you bought Gold at $1,900 nearly 2 years ago you still bought it at a "subsidized" price. When push comes to shove shortly will you lament about "what a bad buy" it was to have paid $1,900? Or will you just be happy that this capital was not part of the "bail in" where depositors lose money to save their bank? Will you think "gee, if I only listened to the top callers I would have more ounces"?
Those who know me personally know that I became bullish on Gold some 15 years ago. My thought process has evolved over time but my basic premises have never ever changed. If you bought at $1,900 or $1,600 I will tell you that you got your purchase "cheap", if you bought last Friday at $1,200 then you got it cheaper but at least you own it. I would not have any interest at all in Gold if I thought it was going to $2,500 per ounce and then fall off. I have an interest in owning Gold because it is wealth, "wealth" that will carry you to the next system whatever it may be. Maybe the mainstream pricing will be in SDR's, in Yuan or some new currency called "wombats" or something like that. The point is this, you will be afforded a place at the table, a ticket to entry, Gold will allow you in. Dollars on the other hand will not be accepted and when the new "rules" are made, those with Dollars will have no say. Choosing to "trade" Gold for Dollars means that you stand a chance to be holding those Dollars when the inevitable "shunning" of Dollars takes place. "Trading" is a risk not worth taking in my opinion even if you are trying to trade for more ounces rather than Dollars.
Regards, Bill H. P.S. I will give it one more day to see if JP Morgan delivers from both their dealer inventory and from the customer side. They are contracted to deliver roughly 100,000 ounces more Gold IN JUNE than they had in their inventories as of Friday afternoon. As I see it, they need to completely empty their inventory AND deliver another 100,000 ounces to honor contracts. It is still not even clear that delivery was made on the 1,000 call options from May. This is a very big deal if you believe in contract law, if not...oh well there's always dancing with the stars or the America's got talent.
My goodness!!. Chinese consumption of gold for the first 6 months of the year hit 800 tonnes.
and will surely top 1,000 tonnes for the year.
(courtesy Reuters/The Economic Times)
and will surely top 1,000 tonnes for the year.
(courtesy Reuters/The Economic Times)
China's 2013 gold consumption to top 1,000 tonnes: China National Gold
(China's gold consumption…)
SHANGHAI: China's gold consumption is set to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the year, having reached about 800 tonnes in the first half, state-owned China National Gold
said on Friday. China National Gold, the country's largest producer, said Beijing should take advantage of the current rout in prices to build reserves of the bullion to ensure economic and financial safety.
It seems that Marine Le Pen is gaining rapidly in support within France. She wishes to remove France from the EU and bring back the franc. Her candidate won in a by election last week with a popularity vote of 46%, The candidate won over the socialists in the socialists own turf.
(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UKTelegraph)
(courtesy Ambrose Evans Pritchard/UKTelegraph)
France's triumphant 'Joan of Arc' vows to bring back franc and destroy euroMarine Le Pen is spoiling for a fight. The leader of France's Front National vows to smash the existing order of Europe and force the break-up of monetary union, if she wins the next election.Mrs Le Pen said her first order of business on setting foot in the Elysee Palace will be to announce a referendum on EU membership, "rendez vous" one year later. "I will negotiate over the points on which there can be no compromise. If the result is inadequate, I will call for withdrawal," she said.By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard4:39PM BST 30 Jun 2013Telegraph UKIt is no longer an implausible prospect. "We cannot be seduced," she said, brimming with confidence after her party secured 46pc of the vote in a by-election earthquake a week ago. Her candidate trounced the ruling Socialists in their own bastion of Villeneuve-sur-Lot."The euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves, and that is our incredible strength. What are they going to do, send in tanks?" she told the Daily Telegraph at the Front National's headquarters, an unmarked building tucked away in the Paris suburb of Nanterre. Her office is small and workaday, almost austere."Europe is just a great bluff. One side there is the immense power of sovereign peoples, and on the other side are a few technocrats," she said.For the first time, the Front National is running level with the two governing parties of post-War France, Socialists and Gaullistes. All are near 21pc in national polls, though the Front alone has the wind in its sails.Yet it is the detail in the Villeneuve vote that has shocked the political class. The Front scored highest in the most Socialist cantons, a sign that it may be breaking out of its Right-wing enclaves to become the mass movement of the white working class.Commentators have begun to talk of "Left-LePenism" as she outflanks the Socialists with attacks on banks and cross-border capitalism. Anna Rosso-Roig, a candidate for the Communist Party in the 2012 elections, has just defected to the Le Pen camp.The Socialists had thought the rising star of Marine Le Pen would work to their advantage, splitting the Right. Now they discern a deadly threat. Industry minister Arnaud Montebourg lashed out last week, blaming Brussels for playing into the hands of the Front National by running roughshod over democracies and pushing austerity a l'outrance.Mrs Le Pen said her first order of business on setting foot in the Elysee Palace will be to announce a referendum on EU membership, "rendez vous" one year later. "I will negotiate over the points on which there can be no compromise. If the result is inadequate, I will call for withdrawal," she said.The four sticking points are the currency, border control, the primacy of French law, and what she calls "economic patriotism", the power for France to pursue "intelligent protectionism" and safeguard it social model. "I cannot imagine running economic policy without full control over our own money," she said.Asked if she intends to pull France of the euro immediately, she said: "Yes, because the euro blocks all economic decisions. France is not a country that can accept tutelage from Brussels," she said.Officials will be told to draw up plans for the restoration of the franc. Eurozone leaders will face a stark choice: either work with France for a "sortie concertee" or coordinated EMU break-up: or await their fate.Mrs Le Pen fears that other EMU states will resist and let "financial Armaggedon" run its course, but it is a risk that has be taken.Her plan is based on a study by economists from l'École des Hautes Études in Paris led by Professor Jacques Sapir. It concludes that France, Italy, and Spain would all benefit greatly from EMU-exit, restoring lost labour competitiveness at a stroke without years of depression.They say the eurozone's North-South imbalances have already gone beyond the point of no return. Attempts to reverse this by deflation and wage cuts must entail mass unemployment and loss of the industrial core. The current strategy of internal devaluation is self-defeating in any case, since recession causes debt ratios to climb faster.Prof Sapir said the gains are greatest in a coordinated break-up with capital controls where central bank intervention steers the new currencies to target levels. The model assumes that the D-Mark and Guilder is held to a 15pc rise against the old euro, while the Franc falls 20pc.The gains are less if EMU collapses in acrimony and currencies overshoot. This would inflict a violent deflation shock on Germany, but would still be strongly positive for the Latin bloc."A lot of politicians have been coming to see me, both Gaullistes and Socialists. They agree, but don't want to come out publicly. They want somebody else to take the lead. If Marine Le Pen wishes to use my work, I have no problem," he said.Mrs Le Pen is a single mother of 44, more relaxed about gay rights and abortion than she lets on, closer in some ways to the assassinated Dutch populist Pim Fortuyn than to her cantankerous father Jean Le Pen, who stepped down as party leader two years ago. Mr Le Pen in turn deplores her eclectic modernism as an overlay of "petit bourgeois" views picked up in Paris schools.She has carried out a quiet purge of the Front, pushing known anti-semites to the sidelines. Vichy nostalgia is out. While her father called the Holocaust an historical "detail", she calls it the "pinnacle of human barbarism". She courts Jewish favour, aiming her fire at Jihadists instead. "Political parties are like people. There is adolescence when you do do crazy things, and then maturity. We are now ready for power," she said.This campaign of "dédiabolisation" or image detox seems to have worked. Only a minority of voters still thinks the Front is a "threat to democracy". Mrs Le Pen is winning over white working class women in droves. The feminized Front is no longer the party of the angry white male. The softer image is why finance minister Pierre Moscovici describes her as "more dangerous than her father".It is her defence of the French welfare model and her critique of capitalism that gives her a Leftist hue -- some call it 1930s national socialism -- so far in outlook from Britain's UKIP. She sounds like Occupy activists in her attacks on high finance and the way corporations profit from labour arbitrage, playing off wages in the West against cheap labour in Asia. "It is the law of the jungle," she said.Nor is she on the UKIP page with her broadsides against Washington and Nato, or her call for France to retake its place as "non-aligned" voice in a multipolar world. It is an anti-Atlanticist patriotism.She claims to be the true heir of General Charles de Gaulle, accusing the Gaulliste UMP party of selling its soul to Europe and the Anglo-Saxon order. "There was a de Gaulle of the Left, and a de Gaulle of the Right. There were two de Gaulles. We stand for both," she said.Mrs Le Pen said the Socialists are in melt-down, victim of their own subservience to EU economic doctrines, while their barrage of attacks on Germany's Angela Merkel smacks of a dependency syndrome. "They whine about Chancellor Merkel, the wicked enforcer who metes out punishment, but Merkel is merely defending the interests of Germany, which are not the same as ours."She said the EMU crisis is structural. North and South need different exchange rates. "The D-Mark would be rising if it were not for the euro, and that means Germany has a chronically undervalued currency. The euro is far too strong for France, and it is eating away our competitiveness," she said.It is hard know whether the French people would ever vote en masse for an all-out clash with Europe, let alone for her Jeanne d'Arc messianism. Yet the longer the economic slump goes on, the greater the risk for Brussels and Berlin that French patience will snap, setting off one of those eruptions that have punctuated French history through the ages.A recent Pew Foundation survey said French support for the EU Project has collapsed from 60pc to 40pc over the last year, and 77pc think economic integration has been damaging.President Francois Hollande says the EMU crisis is "finished" and recovery is at hand, though it is not clear what will break the vicious cycle as France carries out fiscal tightening of 1.8pc of GDP this year and the deepest cuts in half a century. Monetary policy remains contractionary for most of Latin Europe."If the government really tries to force the budget deficit down to 3pc of GDP, the economy will contract again next year by 0.5pc to 0.8pc," said Prof Sapir. "Unemployment will continue rising by 30,000 to 40,000 a month. There may be another 600,000 people without jobs by the end of 2014."France endured the same slow torture in the early 1930s under the Gold Standard, stoically accepting the "500 deflation decrees" of premier Pierre Laval. The dam broke in 1936 with the election of spurned outsiders, then the Leftist Front Populaire, with Communist support. The Gold Standard collapsed.The emergence of Marine Le Pen as a contender for office in Europe's pivotal power may prove the electric shock needed to force a radical shift in EMU crisis strategy, or at least to force France's Socialist Party to break with Germany and fight for a full reflation agenda, if only to avert its own ruin."We have succumbed to a spirit of slavery in France. We have forgotten how to lead, and our voice is not heard any more," she said. It will be heard now.
The European Banking Union That Is Not
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2013 09:19 -0400
Submitted by Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
There is no European Banking Union. This is a good place to start. It does not exist which is why all of the ballyhoo and discussion in the Press is of such little importance. This grand scheme is nothing more than theory at this point and not a very good theory at that.
Under any scenario presented some plan does not go into place for five years. The legislation could be changed, altered or retracted seventeen times during this timeframe. So when it comes to the next sovereign or banking crisis in Europe there is no Greek template, no Cyprus template and the reality is that there is no template at all for anyone to follow or for investors to rely upon. So for the next five years it will be the whim of the European Union that will dictate what measures should be taken.
This reality has contagion and fallout attached. The risk of owning subordinated debt, preferred stocks and equity in European banks is now incalculable. No one has any idea if another Cyprus conclusion might be forthcoming so that the differentiation between owning American securities and European securities is huge in my opinion. While the risk factor cannot be quantified it is still quite apparent to me that there is much more risk now in owning European securities and also that the market has not, at this point, adequately priced in this risk.
If you have money in a European bank, a depositor either as an individual or a corporation, if you own securities from equity to senior debt, if you have any kind of repo agreement; you are now in a position of heightened risk.
Both Greece with its retroactive clause changes and Cyprus with its seizure of assets, conversion of deposits to equity and the freezing of accounts with capital controls inaugurated, demonstrates one thing clearly; there was no due process of law at least as we know it in the United States. In each of these examples it was political whim that dictated the decisions and for the next five years there will be nothing different. For the next five years it will be politics devoid of the Rule of Law that will decide how anyone is treated when there is a crisis and given the financial condition of the European banks I can virtually assure you that new crises will be forthcoming.
Let's stick to just what we know. Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France are in trouble. I am not discussing the markets here but their underlying economic condition. Each of these countries are in a perilous state. If one major bank in any of these nations gets in trouble then you have no idea and I have no idea how the EU might respond. Is it to be the Greek template, the Cyprus template or some new scheme that will be implemented in a late night furry of political decision making? What can be said with accuracy is that there is no template for these decisions and that there will not be one during the next five years!
As usual there will be money made for those that get the timing right. Certain speculators will profit. As usual there will be money lost for those that get the timing wrong. Certain speculators will suffer.
What is of the utmost importance to understand though is that the discussion of a banking union has not led to the creation of one and that a massive amount of risk remains on the table for those that do business with the European banks. Any kind of business. I repeat, any kind of business.
"There was a tiny pop, and the place where Sirius’s head had been was flickering flame once more.”
-J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Submitted by Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
There is no European Banking Union. This is a good place to start. It does not exist which is why all of the ballyhoo and discussion in the Press is of such little importance. This grand scheme is nothing more than theory at this point and not a very good theory at that.
Under any scenario presented some plan does not go into place for five years. The legislation could be changed, altered or retracted seventeen times during this timeframe. So when it comes to the next sovereign or banking crisis in Europe there is no Greek template, no Cyprus template and the reality is that there is no template at all for anyone to follow or for investors to rely upon. So for the next five years it will be the whim of the European Union that will dictate what measures should be taken.
This reality has contagion and fallout attached. The risk of owning subordinated debt, preferred stocks and equity in European banks is now incalculable. No one has any idea if another Cyprus conclusion might be forthcoming so that the differentiation between owning American securities and European securities is huge in my opinion. While the risk factor cannot be quantified it is still quite apparent to me that there is much more risk now in owning European securities and also that the market has not, at this point, adequately priced in this risk.
If you have money in a European bank, a depositor either as an individual or a corporation, if you own securities from equity to senior debt, if you have any kind of repo agreement; you are now in a position of heightened risk.
Both Greece with its retroactive clause changes and Cyprus with its seizure of assets, conversion of deposits to equity and the freezing of accounts with capital controls inaugurated, demonstrates one thing clearly; there was no due process of law at least as we know it in the United States. In each of these examples it was political whim that dictated the decisions and for the next five years there will be nothing different. For the next five years it will be politics devoid of the Rule of Law that will decide how anyone is treated when there is a crisis and given the financial condition of the European banks I can virtually assure you that new crises will be forthcoming.
Let's stick to just what we know. Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France are in trouble. I am not discussing the markets here but their underlying economic condition. Each of these countries are in a perilous state. If one major bank in any of these nations gets in trouble then you have no idea and I have no idea how the EU might respond. Is it to be the Greek template, the Cyprus template or some new scheme that will be implemented in a late night furry of political decision making? What can be said with accuracy is that there is no template for these decisions and that there will not be one during the next five years!
As usual there will be money made for those that get the timing right. Certain speculators will profit. As usual there will be money lost for those that get the timing wrong. Certain speculators will suffer.
What is of the utmost importance to understand though is that the discussion of a banking union has not led to the creation of one and that a massive amount of risk remains on the table for those that do business with the European banks. Any kind of business. I repeat, any kind of business.
"There was a tiny pop, and the place where Sirius’s head had been was flickering flame once more.”
-J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Under any scenario presented some plan does not go into place for five years. The legislation could be changed, altered or retracted seventeen times during this timeframe. So when it comes to the next sovereign or banking crisis in Europe there is no Greek template, no Cyprus template and the reality is that there is no template at all for anyone to follow or for investors to rely upon. So for the next five years it will be the whim of the European Union that will dictate what measures should be taken.
This reality has contagion and fallout attached. The risk of owning subordinated debt, preferred stocks and equity in European banks is now incalculable. No one has any idea if another Cyprus conclusion might be forthcoming so that the differentiation between owning American securities and European securities is huge in my opinion. While the risk factor cannot be quantified it is still quite apparent to me that there is much more risk now in owning European securities and also that the market has not, at this point, adequately priced in this risk.
If you have money in a European bank, a depositor either as an individual or a corporation, if you own securities from equity to senior debt, if you have any kind of repo agreement; you are now in a position of heightened risk.
Both Greece with its retroactive clause changes and Cyprus with its seizure of assets, conversion of deposits to equity and the freezing of accounts with capital controls inaugurated, demonstrates one thing clearly; there was no due process of law at least as we know it in the United States. In each of these examples it was political whim that dictated the decisions and for the next five years there will be nothing different. For the next five years it will be politics devoid of the Rule of Law that will decide how anyone is treated when there is a crisis and given the financial condition of the European banks I can virtually assure you that new crises will be forthcoming.
Let's stick to just what we know. Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and France are in trouble. I am not discussing the markets here but their underlying economic condition. Each of these countries are in a perilous state. If one major bank in any of these nations gets in trouble then you have no idea and I have no idea how the EU might respond. Is it to be the Greek template, the Cyprus template or some new scheme that will be implemented in a late night furry of political decision making? What can be said with accuracy is that there is no template for these decisions and that there will not be one during the next five years!
As usual there will be money made for those that get the timing right. Certain speculators will profit. As usual there will be money lost for those that get the timing wrong. Certain speculators will suffer.
What is of the utmost importance to understand though is that the discussion of a banking union has not led to the creation of one and that a massive amount of risk remains on the table for those that do business with the European banks. Any kind of business. I repeat, any kind of business.
"There was a tiny pop, and the place where Sirius’s head had been was flickering flame once more.”
-J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
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