Germany.......
Neither poll mentioned the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) as if it would not reach the 5% threshold for parliament.
I asked Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD party leader) his take on the Bloomberg poll. Bernd responded ...
Inquiring minds are reading a Mish-modified translation of a Focus Deutschland article regarding a coalition shift from the wiretapping scandal.
Bloomberg is way premature with its synopsis, even if AfD falters.
As in Italy with Beppe Grillo, I believe mainstream analysts and polls far underestimate the support for AfD.
Regardless, it's important to remember that even if CDU/CSU gathers the highest total of votes (which it most assuredly will do), it's coalitions that matter, not individuals.
The price to pay in any coalition might very well be the ouster of Merkel whether or not AfD hits the 5 percent threshold.
Confused about German politics?
If so, please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for.
The explanations are from reader Bernd.
Wahl-O-Meter Update
Here is a current election snapshot from Wahl-O-Meter.
And there is lots of time left.
AfD needs to hop on the wiretapping issue with a fiery message. And if the party does that, it would easily make the 5 percent threshold, if not a 10 percent threshold.
In such a scenario, no existing coalition would come close to a 50% total, and Merkel would be put out to pasture.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/07/16/inenglish/1373979225_633015.html
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/16/2013 10:11 -0400
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/15/2013 08:23 -0400
Tuesday, July 16, 2013 1:12 PM
Germany Election "Far From Over", Merkel Coalition in Trouble as Spotlight Shines on Snowden’s Revelations
A couple days ago Bloomberg reported Polls Indicate Merkel’s Coalition Is Likely to Win Election.
CDU/CSU will get 40 percent of votes, coalition partner FDP 6.5 percent, according to a poll conducted by Institut fuer Demoskopie Allensbach on behalf of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper. The total of 46.5 percent compares to a combined 44 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising the SPD that polled 25.5 percent, Greens with 12.5 percent and Die Linke 6 percent.What About AfD?
CDU/CSU will get 41 percent of votes, one percentage point less than a week earlier and FDP 5 percent, one percentage point more, according to an Emnid poll on behalf of the Bild am Sonntag newspaper. The combined 46 percent compares to 45 percent of the other parties moving into parliament, comprising SPD with 26 percent, Greens polling 12 percent and Die Linke 7 percent.
Neither poll mentioned the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD) as if it would not reach the 5% threshold for parliament.
I asked Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD party leader) his take on the Bloomberg poll. Bernd responded ...
Hello Mish,Election "Far From Over"
Poll 1 by Allensbach Institut is made on behalf of CDU via Frankfurter Allgemeine – it has been my practice in the past years to disregard any poll coming from them. Allensbach are notoriously CDU friendly and notoriously wrong.
Poll 2 by Emnid on behalf of Bild Zeitung is equally shaky and Bild Zeitung is another CDU-friendly tabloid.
We will see lots of polls coming out of Germany in the next weeks but half the country is on vacation and people will say anything to get pollsters out of the way.
In my circles, I know of at least 5 people who claim they have lied to pollsters on purpose. I believe this is more common than one thinks.
I sense a shift going through the country. The population in Germany hates anything that has got to do with violation of data protection. As a single subject this topic outweighs any crisis of the EURO in Spain, Greece or else by a huge margin.
The facts that have become known to the German population via Mr. Snowden’s revelations are a real sore point for the German electorate. Germany’s voters feel that Mrs. Merkel’s position on the issue is too soft and that she is hiding facts.
The German Government under Merkel is desperately trying to keep the lid on the fact, that they knew about PRISM and such other programs by UK and France – because the Allies have official rights to spy in Germany, dating back to agreements of the 1960s.
Suddenly one sees and hears more and more remarks about Madam Merkel’s past and her obvious loyalty to the East German Government in the 1970s and 1980s.
The SPD and Mr. Steinbrück have decided to make data protection the main issue of the next ten weeks, leading up to the elections. It seems to me as if the Green Party is jumping on the bandwagon.
Unfortunately, AFD has not positioned itself for this topic and they may miss out if they don't take a strong stand quickly.
If indeed the data protection issue becomes more relevant in the next weeks, I predict a substantial rise of votes for FDP. They are currently the only party with a believable track record when it comes to individual rights and data protection.
However, it is still a long way to the election. In 2002 Schröder trailed behind badly ten weeks before elections, only to win by a small margin.
Best regards
Bernd
Inquiring minds are reading a Mish-modified translation of a Focus Deutschland article regarding a coalition shift from the wiretapping scandal.
Following the NSA scandal and Snowden affair, pressure grows on politics, and voters want answers.Lots of Time Left
As it currently stands, the election is far from decided: a black-yellow coalition(CDU/CSU + FDP) holds a slim lead over the red-green alliance(SPD + Green Party), but neither coalition has a majority.
In the latest poll, CDU/CSU loses a point compared to last week and would gather 38 percent of the vote. FDP would get five percent. So the black-yellow coalition would gather 43 percent.
Meanwhile, the SPD would get 26 percent of the vote with the Green party gathering 15 percent. This would put a Red-Green coalition at 41 percent.
AfD would gather only 3 percent of the vote and fail to make parliament.
Bloomberg is way premature with its synopsis, even if AfD falters.
As in Italy with Beppe Grillo, I believe mainstream analysts and polls far underestimate the support for AfD.
Regardless, it's important to remember that even if CDU/CSU gathers the highest total of votes (which it most assuredly will do), it's coalitions that matter, not individuals.
The price to pay in any coalition might very well be the ouster of Merkel whether or not AfD hits the 5 percent threshold.
Confused about German politics?
If so, please see Understanding German Politics for an explanation of the German political parties and what they stand for.
The explanations are from reader Bernd.
Wahl-O-Meter Update
Here is a current election snapshot from Wahl-O-Meter.
And there is lots of time left.
AfD needs to hop on the wiretapping issue with a fiery message. And if the party does that, it would easily make the 5 percent threshold, if not a 10 percent threshold.
In such a scenario, no existing coalition would come close to a 50% total, and Merkel would be put out to pasture.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Greece....
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Spain.....
http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/07/16/inenglish/1373979225_633015.html
THE PP'S HIDDEN FINANCES
Socialists to seek censure motion against prime minister over payments scandal
Rubalcaba declares move is required for the “dignity of parliament”
PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba in this morning's Senate meeting. / EL PAÍS
The leader of Spain’s main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE), Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, has announced he will seek a motion of censure against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy over the Bárcenas scandal for the “dignity of parliament.” If carried through, the motion will be the third of its kind since Spain returned to democracy.
The Socialists’ proposition is conditioned on the probability that the governing Popular Party will once again resist calls for Rajoy to appear before Congress to offer an explanation over the case, which concerns the alleged illegal financing of the party and cash payments to top officials, including the head of government and the party’s general secretary, María Dolores de Cospedal.
Rubalcaba has conferred with the other parliamentary opposition groups and all have agreed that Rajoy must be summoned to appear before Congress. The Socialists understand the censure motion will not be carried due to the PP’s parliamentary majority but will table it as a gesture of no confidence.
Rubalcaba told the Senate Socialist Group that the move was designed to flush Rajoy out to appear in Congress. However, the statutes do not require the prime minister to do so unless he so desires. The two previous targets of a censure motion, Adolfo Suárez (UCD, a predecessor of the PP) and Felipe González (PSOE) did respond to the summons.
The Socialist leader also stood by his party’s demand for Rajoy’s resignation over the payments scandal, saying that the political ramifications “affect the stability of the country.”
http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/07/16/inenglish/1373993353_231264.html
EDITORIAL
An explanation is still pending
For Rajoy, it is pointless to buy weeks or months of political time by refusing to address accusations
On Monday Mariano Rajoy responded with a flat refusal to the opposition’s earlier demand that he resign. But he did not do this in the Congress, nor as part of a detailed explanation of the Bárcenas case. He did it in the course of a press conference with the Polish prime minister, using a statement he had prepared beforehand. The prime minister knows very well that what we heard on Monday are not the explanations being demanded of him, and that he still faces the unavoidable necessity of appearing in parliament to give them.
This happened on the same day the former treasurer of the PP confirmed his change of strategy before Judge Pablo Ruz. Having until now denied his authorship of the accounting notebooks published by EL PAÍS on January 31, Bárcenas now not only accredits them, but also says they reflect a consolidated system of bonuses and movements of undeclared funds in the PP’s head office. As for the persons who received such payments, he rules out José María Aznar and points to Rajoy and PP secretary general María Dolores de Cospedal, to whom he attributes concrete though undocumented quantities. He did submit a document on the delivery of 200,000 euros to the then-head of the PP in Toledo, supposedly in exchange for a cleaning contract, when Cospedal was president of the PP in the region of Castilla-La Mancha. She denies this accusation, and considers that Bárcenas’s assertions in general are a mass of “slander and lies.”
The justice system must proceed in its investigation. But what emerges in court falls far short of the explanations that the public deserves to hear. Unknowns are proliferating via the judicial statements of Bárcenas, leaving even more in the air the degree to which these leaders were involved with the former PP treasurer, and grave suspicions about an irregular system of income and payment within the governing party.
To argue that they are not in connivance with Bárcenas because he is in prison is not only nonsense but a dangerous argument for political leaders to use, suggesting as it does that the government can decide who goes to jail and who doesn’t.
Rajoy is clinging to the straw of political stability, giving us to understand that his personal presence is the surety of the reforms set in motion by his government. This is an answer that attempts to divert the question into the channel of debate between government and opposition; but it is not being offered in Congress, the natural place for majority-minority encounters, and the seat of sovereignty. The prime minister has to convey his public messages through the parliamentary channels that are normal in countries around us.
The problem still stands in the same terms in which it existed before Monday’s press conference, and the only provisional advantage that Rajoy can count on is the opposition’s disagreement about what plan of action to follow. The prime minister hopes to settle into a strategy of resistance, of buying weeks or months of political time by means of putting off these problems. This method is entirely useless as a response to the serious concerns of the Spanish public.
Italy........
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-16/italys-first-black-minister-greeted-nooses-lampposts
Italy's First Black Minister Greeted With "Nooses On Lampposts"
While the US has had its share of race-related social issues in recent days, nothing compares to Italy where not only was the country's first black minister (of integration!) of Congolese origin, Cecile Kyenge, compared to an orangutan two days ago by Roberto Calderoli, vice president of Italy's Senate and a senior parliamentarian in the anti-immigration Northern League, but following a visit to the city of Pescara she was met with a "protest" where nooses were hung from lammposts.
And just so the message was not lost, "he nooses appeared on lampposts with posters signed by far-right group Forza Nuova: "Immigration, the noose of the people!" read one of the slogans on the posters. Another said: "Everyone should live in their own country." Nothing like Italy, whose economy has been ravaged by the worst depression in decades, developing its own Golden Dawn movement to really help with integration issues and globalized worker mobility.
Kyenge, who is of Congolese origin, has called for a reform of Italian law to make it easier for children born to immigrant parents to acquire citizenship.Prime Minister Enrico Letta called for an end to the insults against Kyenge, saying this was a "shameful chapter" for Italy and could lead to a "major clash".Ever since being named to the cabinet in April, Kyenge has faced a barrage of abuse - particularly from members of the anti-immigration Northern League party.Northern League MEP Mario Borghezio said her nomination was "bloody stupid" and that she had "a face like a housewife", while one local party activist said the minister should be raped in a vicious Facebook rant about crimes committed by immigrants.Northern League senator Roberto Calderoli, who has courted controversy for years with a series of racist, sexist and Islamophobic jibes, on Saturday said: "When I see pictures of Kyenge, I cannot help thinking of similarities with an orangutan".In an interview with La Repubblica daily out on Monday, Calderoli then claimed that he had animalistic comparisons for all the ministers, including ones who looked like a frog, a peacock and a St Bernard's dog.Letta on Monday said Calderoli's remarks were "unacceptable" and called on Northern League leader Roberto Maroni to put an end to the attacks by his party members "as quickly as possible".Calderoli is deputy speaker of the Senate and there have been calls for his resignation from centre-left lawmakers and anti-racism campaigners.
Ah, zee political stabeeleetee. Then again, with the "untouchable Don" Mario Draghi, whose own past is checkered beyond comaprison in charge of Europe, courtesy of the Goldman Sachs immunity, not even race war breaking out in Europe will make a dent on the ECB's intentions to centrally plan the future of the continent using peripheral bond yields for the long to very long term future.
And not surprisingly, courtesy of precisely such social distractions, it is the "Mario Draghis" of the world, not to mention Italy's far more "deserving" politicians, that have so far completely avoided even one noose on even one lammpost in all their Gulfstream-chartered, taxpayer-funded jaunts around the world.
September 22 , 2013 - Germany elections after which we shall see who is swimming naked.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-15/drop-dead-day
The Drop-Dead Day
Submitted by Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,
Everyone wants to know what day everything will change. I have been asked and asked and asked when the cat will come out of the bag, when Jack will jump out of the Box and when the weasel will pop. I have even been asked when the cow will jump over the moon but I will let the cat with the fiddle answer that one.
I could tell you that I have spent long nights with the ancient runes. Maybe I should claim that, being the Wizard, I have cast the Calendarus Spell and divined the future. Another option would be to claim secret knowledge from the newest Sage, Ms. Lalique. None of these would be true though so I will not make such statements.
No, the Drop Dead Day will prove to be accurate but for other reasons.
It is the date of the German elections - September 22, 2013.
Portugal is about a nano-second from blowing up. Their ten year yield is now north of 7% and their political coalition is a hair's breadth from collapsing. The government has asked the IMF to delay their financial review until August citing political uncertainty.
Greece is right on the verge of coming unglued again. The Troika is demanding that Greece cute fifteen thousand Civil Service jobs. The unions are calling strikes once again and the current coalition rules by a handful of votes. Trouble is again on the horizon.
The Prime Minister and the government of Spain are accused of graft. The Spanish economy is worsening dramatically while unemployment surges. The Spanish banks are asking for their deferred tax assets to be guaranteed by the nation in another attempt to turn water into wine. Things are not going well.
France is in a recession and their economy is getting worse. Last Friday they lost the last of their "AAA" ratings and there is no joy in Paris I can assure you. Further budget cuts are on the horizon as encouraged by the IMF while Monsieur Hollande sinks in the polls.
Having identified all of this it will not matter until the day after September 22. Nothing is going to be allowed to upset the bratwurst cart and I mean nothing. If more money is needed it will be spent. If favors need to be called the phone will be in use. If Frau Merkel needs to give Mr. Draghi a new set of instructions; they will be issued. Whatever it takes. Whatever must be done. Nothing will get in the way of the Chancellor's re-election.
In the days following the election, however, the gates of Hell may open and the brimstone may spill out. Every problem, question and issue that was delayed, put-off and tabled until the German election took place will rear their ugly heads for public inspection. Attitudes will change. Money will not be easily forthcoming and the noose will tighten around the necks of the troublemakers. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Greece will be wailing once again.
I could tell you that I have spent long nights with the ancient runes. Maybe I should claim that, being the Wizard, I have cast the Calendarus Spell and divined the future. Another option would be to claim secret knowledge from the newest Sage, Ms. Lalique. None of these would be true though so I will not make such statements.
No, the Drop Dead Day will prove to be accurate but for other reasons.
It is the date of the German elections - September 22, 2013.
Portugal is about a nano-second from blowing up. Their ten year yield is now north of 7% and their political coalition is a hair's breadth from collapsing. The government has asked the IMF to delay their financial review until August citing political uncertainty.
Greece is right on the verge of coming unglued again. The Troika is demanding that Greece cute fifteen thousand Civil Service jobs. The unions are calling strikes once again and the current coalition rules by a handful of votes. Trouble is again on the horizon.
The Prime Minister and the government of Spain are accused of graft. The Spanish economy is worsening dramatically while unemployment surges. The Spanish banks are asking for their deferred tax assets to be guaranteed by the nation in another attempt to turn water into wine. Things are not going well.
France is in a recession and their economy is getting worse. Last Friday they lost the last of their "AAA" ratings and there is no joy in Paris I can assure you. Further budget cuts are on the horizon as encouraged by the IMF while Monsieur Hollande sinks in the polls.
Having identified all of this it will not matter until the day after September 22. Nothing is going to be allowed to upset the bratwurst cart and I mean nothing. If more money is needed it will be spent. If favors need to be called the phone will be in use. If Frau Merkel needs to give Mr. Draghi a new set of instructions; they will be issued. Whatever it takes. Whatever must be done. Nothing will get in the way of the Chancellor's re-election.
In the days following the election, however, the gates of Hell may open and the brimstone may spill out. Every problem, question and issue that was delayed, put-off and tabled until the German election took place will rear their ugly heads for public inspection. Attitudes will change. Money will not be easily forthcoming and the noose will tighten around the necks of the troublemakers. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Cyprus and Greece will be wailing once again.
City of Lights Gone Dark - Ironic and Symbolic !
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