http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/jeff-clark-a-photovoltaic-silver-bull-in-china
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-inventory.html
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/macleod-bank-of-england-may-have.html
Although it is not been verified I thought this calculation by Alasdair Macleod was quite striking.
Based on recent figures from the Bank of England, it appears as though the Bank of England has directed the leasing of about 1,300 tonnes of central bank gold from their vaults in a four month period from March through June.
Or at least that is the surmise, given the inventory level at the end of February and the stated inventory on the Bank of England website at the end of June. Macleod thinks that this was done in support of the gold price smackdown.
One has to wonder how that bullion will eventually be returned to its rightful owners, given that it apparently has been taken from the vault and delivered to the refineries en route to the East, or may even be sitting in some vault somewhere with a high stack of paper claims set against it.
Perhaps the claimants will be told to 'wait seven years' for it, or settle now for cash.
Gold closed at $1,327.20 spot...down $6.60 from Friday's close. Gross volume was way up there at 254, 300 contracts, but once all the roll-overs are subtracted out, the net volume was a tiny 17,000 contracts.
The silver price action was a different story, however. Silver was under pressure almost right from the Sunday night open in New York...and hit its low tick shortly after London opened their Monday. From that low, silver began to rally nicely, but it was obvious from the price action that it was running into serious opposition the higher it rose...and the big rally going into the Comex open got sold down almost immediately, with the coupe de grâce coming at 9:00 a.m. EDT. After that, the silver price behaved itself for the rest of the day.
The low tick, shortly after the London open, was around $19.60 spot...and Kitco recorded the high tick as $20.34 spot. That came a minute or so after 8:30 a.m. EDT. One can only imagine what silver would have closed the day at if the metal had been allowed to trade freely.
Silver finished the Monday session at $19.85 spot...down 14 cents from its Friday close. Gross volume was around 35,000 contracts.
Here's the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own, so you can see the early morning price shenanigans for yourself.
* * *
The contents of Monday's CME Daily Delivery Report came as no surprise, as 3 gold and 134 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday...the last day of the July delivery month for silver. The big short/issuer was, as it has been all month, JPMorgan Chase out of its client account with 132 contracts. JPMorgan Chase stopped 91 contracts in its in-house [proprietary] trading account...and Jefferies was the other long/stopper of note with 28 contracts...all for its in-house [proprietary] trading account. The link to yesterday'sIssuers and Stoppers Report is definitely worth a quick look...and the link to that is here.
Late tomorrow evening EDT, the CME Group will post the First Day Notice numbers for the August delivery month in gold...and as I've stated before, it will be interesting to see how much ends up in the proprietary trading arms of JPMorgan Chase. I'll have these numbers for you in Thursday's missive.
For a change, there were no reported withdrawals or additions to either GLD or SLV.
The U.S. Mint had a very decent sales report yesterday...and if one uses the past as prologue, this may be the last sales report of the month. They sold 10,500 ounces of gold eagles...4,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a very chunky 950,000 silver eagles. Silver eagles sales this month so far total 4,406,500. Only 65,000 ounces of gold eagles/buffaloes have been reported sold, so that puts the silver/gold ratio for mint sales at just about 68 to 1. That's the biggest sales ratio number that I can remember posting.
Ted Butler is of the opinion that most of these silver eagles are heading overseas.
Friday was a very busy day for silver over at the Comex-approved depositories. They reported receiving 1,792,734 troy ounces of the stuff...and shipped 1,237,851 troy ounces out the door. JPMorgan took delivery of 598,075 troy ounces of that amount. The link to that activity, which is worth a quick look, is here.
It was quieter in gold, as only 32,090 troy ounces were reported received...and nothing was shipped out. Here's the link to that.
In my regular Friday afternoon Commitment of Traders Report phone call with Ted Butler, there was a 'surprise' in last week's COT Report that he 'forgot' to mention...and what a 'Golden' surprise it was!
Last Friday's COT Report showed that the Commercial net short position blew out by 1.0 million ounces...a fact that I mentioned in my Saturday column. But that masked an increase in thelong position of the 'Big 4' traders...and here are two paragraphs from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly commentary on Saturday that lays it all out...
That surprise was the large increase in JPMorgan’s massive net long COMEX gold futures position. The data indicate JPMorgan may have increased its net long position in gold by almost 9,600 contracts to bring that position close to 85,000 contracts. What data? There is only one data point, but it’s a very hard number. The percentage of the Big 4 net long position (which JPMorgan must reside in) jumped to the highest ever at 32.4% and when multiplied against total open interest of 434,750 contracts results in a hard net number of 140,859 contracts held by the big 4 longs. This represents an increase in the Big 4’s net long position of 9,655 contracts from the previous week.
I’m alleging that JPMorgan accounted for the entire one-week increase in the Big 4 category and that the bank now holds 85,000 contracts of the 140,859 contracts held net long by the Big 4. Certainly, if JPMorgan or the CFTC dispute my calculations, then they can set the record straight. I further allege that JPMorgan holds, once all spreads are removed from total open interest, more than 23.6% of the entire net open interest in COMEX gold futures, up from 20.6% in the previous week. Never has any entity held such a large concentration in COMEX gold futures, to my knowledge. Certainly that is something the CFTC should respond to, as the implications for manipulation in gold has never been clearer.
Ted mentioned that it was always a possibility that there was an error in the reporting...and it might be 'corrected' in this Friday's report...but I'll bet that it stands, as this is the kind of legerdemain that JPMorgan Chase excels at...and that's another reason why I'm very curious to know how much gold they take delivery of next month. They may be sitting in the bushes over there as well. We'll get a pretty good indication of that by Friday.
* * *
Selected news and views ......
Seven King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews
1. John Embry: "We Are Staring at Global Collapse and a Gold and Silver Explosion". 2. Robert Fitzwilson: "Is Something Catastrophic About to Occur?". 3. Michael Pento: "Wild Speculation, the Fed and What This Means For Gold and Silver". 4. Rick Rule: "What to Expect From Gold, Silver and Mining Shares". 5. Richard Russell: "Gold, Stocks, Bull Markets and "Big Money" 6. The first audio interview is with Egon von Greyerz...and the second audio interview is with Eric Sprott.
Gold talks stalled: South Africa's Chamber of Mines
South Africa's Chamber of Mines has declared a dispute with labour group AMCU in gold negotiations, a move that will likely place wage talks for the entire sector before a government-affiliated mediator, it said on Monday.
"AMCU has rejected the gold producers' revised offer of a 5% increase in wages and benefits. The producers have indicated that they cannot accede to AMCU's demands, in respect of which AMCU has not moved at all in respect of its demands," the chamber said in a statement.
The move is expected to lead to all parties taking their dispute to the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration for mediation.
This news item, filed from Johannesburg, was posted on the moneyweb.co.zaInternet site yesterday afternoon local time...and I thank reader M.A. for bringing this article to our attention.
Gold Premiums in India Double as Supplies Decline on Curbs
Gold premiums in India, the world’s largest user last year, doubled in the past week as jewelers rushed to secure supplies after a surge in imports this month spurred the central bank to impose fresh curbs on purchases.
The fees paid by jewelers to banks and other importers climbed to about $10 an ounce over the London cash price from as low as $4 an ounce a week earlier, said Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. The Reserve Bank of India on July 22 made it mandatory for gold importers to set aside 20 percent for re-exports as jewelry.
“There will definitely be raw material shortage during the festival season,” Soni said in a phone interview from New Delhi today. “The international market is not that favorable right now and exports can’t increase just like that. We need relaxation on this for the survival of the industry as millions of artisans will be without jobs.”
This Bloomberg story, filed from New Delhi, was posted on their website very early yesterday morning MDT...and I thank reader M.A. once again for finding this for us.
Silver Vault for 200 Tons Starts in Singapore as Wealthy Buy
A silver vault that can hold 200 metric tons opens in Singapore this week to cater for increasing demand for physical precious metals among Asia’s wealthy even as the commodity leads declines this year.
The new facility is 30 percent booked at the opening, said Joshua Rotbart, precious-metals general manager at owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. The storage will add to the firm’s five vaults at the Singapore FreePort, which are fully reserved for gold, he said in an interview. The repository can hold $128 million of silver at today’s prices. Gold is about 67 times more expensive.
“Our existing vaults at the FreePort are highly secured and the rate is too expensive to store silver there,” said Rotbart, who declined to say where the new facility is sited. “We need to find a solution, and we also see a strong demand."
This very interesting Bloomberg story was filed from Singapore...and posted on their Internet site in the wee hours of yesterday morning. It's worth reading...and I thank reader M.A. for his final offering in today's column.
A (Photovoltaic) Silver Bull in China
Early this month, big news came out of China. It may have gone unnoticed by some investors—and there's really no reason why it would have been covered extensively by mainstream media—but it's important if you're a silver investor. China raised its target for solar generating capacity to more than 35 gigawatts (GW) by 2015, a stunning increase of 67% above the previous target.
China's State Council announced on July 4 that installed capacity for solar electricity would grow about 10 GW per year until it reaches the newly set target. The country's previous target was 21 GW; installed capacity in 2012 was about 7 GW, so this would translate into a 400% increase. Moreover, if one looks at the rate at which it keeps raising the target, we may well see even more solar capacity by 2015—and quite possibly two times that by 2020.
Why does this mean to us as precious metal investors? A simple answer would be that growing demand could crimp supply and push on prices. But let's take a deeper look to see if that's the case…
I've already posted a couple of news items in this column during the past week about this issue...and here's a fresh look from Jeff Clark over at Casey Research. It's a must read.
It'll Be Way Harder for Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley to Get Out of the Physical Commodities Business Than JP Morgan
As JPMorgan Chase & Co prepares to exit physical commodities trading, the spotlight is turning to the future of the two banks that have dominated Wall Street's involvement in the natural resources supply chain for 30 years.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley two decades ago became known as the 'Wall Street Refiners' for their mastery of both financial and physical commodities.
But since 2012 Morgan Stanley has looked at selling its commodity arm and Goldman has made moves to scale back its physical operations.
This very long Reuters essay was posted on the businessinsider.com Internet site yesterday morning EDT...but it's definitely worth reading. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it along.
Hedge Funds Raise Gold Bets as Goldman Sees Decline: Commodities
Hedge funds raised wagers on a gold rally as speculation that the Federal Reserve will hold off on curbing stimulus drove prices toward the biggest gain in 18 months. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the rally to reverse.
Money managers increased their net-long position by 26 percent to 70,067 futures and options as of July 23, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The fourth consecutive weekly gain is the longest streak since October.
Gold futures rose 8.6 percent in July, heading for the largest monthly gain since January 2012, as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke damped speculation that a cut in bond purchases is imminent.
This Bloomberg item, along with a 2:44 minute embedded video clip, was posted on their website early yesterday afternoon...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens.
Money managers increased their net-long position by 26 percent to 70,067 futures and options as of July 23, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The fourth consecutive weekly gain is the longest streak since October.
Gold futures rose 8.6 percent in July, heading for the largest monthly gain since January 2012, as Fed chairman Ben Bernanke damped speculation that a cut in bond purchases is imminent.
This Bloomberg item, along with a 2:44 minute embedded video clip, was posted on their website early yesterday afternoon...and it's also courtesy of Roy Stephens.
Einhorn’s Reinsurer Cut Gold Holding Amid Bear Market
Greenlight Capital Re Ltd., the reinsurer that counts hedge-fund manager David Einhorn as its chairman, cut an investment in gold in the three months ended June 30 as prices fell into a bear market.
The reinsurer had about $50.5 million of commodities at the end of the second quarter, compared with $90.3 million on March 31, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. The cost basis for the investments fell to $41.8 million from $59.9 million in the period, the Cayman Islands-based company said.
The “decrease in commodities was due to a decline in the price of gold combined with the disposal of a portion of our physical gold holdings,” according to the filing.
It's a good bet that JPMorgan Chase is now the proud owner of everything the Einhorn sold. This is another Bloomberg offering...and this one was posted on their website shortly after the markets closed yesterday afternoon in New York...and it's Roy's third and final offering in today's column.
¤ THE WRAP
There are no markets anymore...only interventions. - Chris Powell, GATA
Even though net trading volumes in all four precious metals were pretty low yesterday, it was obvious that at least three or four really wanted to fly to the upside...and were well on their way until a willing seller made an appearance. There are just no legitimate short sellers left in this market...and if it wasn't for JPMorgan et al, all PM prices would have been over the moon decades ago.
But with 48 hours left in the July delivery month...along with the final roll-overs out of the August gold contract...I'm still not expecting any major fireworks to the upside, even though it's obvious that this is what Mr. Market would like to do if given the opportunity to do so.
The precious metals won't break out until JPMorgan Chase allows it to happen...and as you are already more than aware, the fundamental laws of supply and demand have nothing to with it...and never have.
But when this break-out does occur, I'll be prepared to bet big money that it won't happen in a vacuum, as JPMorgan will have some cover as to why the precious metal prices are exploding to the upside. The only unknown is whether its origin will be economic, financial, political...or some 'other' event/black swan...or a combination of these. Whatever it is, it won't be a coincidence that it's occurring. These crooks may have been born at night...but it wasn't last night.
The other question that needs an answer is...how soon? Beats me, but the day it happens, you won't have to ask "Is this it?"...as it will be self-evident.
Checking the CME's website for yesterday's preliminary volume figures I note that gold's open interest for August is falling precipitously...and is now down to just under 21,000 contracts. There are still 134 contract showing as being open in the July delivery month...but all of them were reported by the CME as being posted for delivery tomorrow, so silver is done for the month.
All four precious metals were under a bit of selling pressure in Far East trading on the their Tuesday...and they all got swatted shortly after the London open...but are recovering a bit as I write this paragraph at 4:06 a.m. EDT. Gold volumes are not overly heavy...and most of the trading activity is now in the new front month, which is December. Silver's volume is about average for this time of day. The dollar index isn't doing a thing.
And as I hit the 'send' button on today's column at 5:20 a.m. EDT, the precious metals haven't recovered too much from their lows of earlier in the London trading session. Gold is down about five bucks...and silver is down around two bits. Net gold volume is still pretty light...and silver's volume is 'average' for this time of day. The dollar index is still flat.
I haven't the foggiest as to what the rest of today will bring...but whatever it is, it should all be in this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...and it will be more than interesting to see if JPMorgan has any more surprises for us like they did in last Friday's report.
That's more than enough for today...and I'll see you here tomorrow.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/comex-registered-gold-inventory.html
30 JULY 2013
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2013/07/macleod-bank-of-england-may-have.html
27 JULY 2013
Macleod: Bank of England May Have Directed Release of 1,300 Tonnes of Central Bank Gold
Although it is not been verified I thought this calculation by Alasdair Macleod was quite striking.
Based on recent figures from the Bank of England, it appears as though the Bank of England has directed the leasing of about 1,300 tonnes of central bank gold from their vaults in a four month period from March through June.
Or at least that is the surmise, given the inventory level at the end of February and the stated inventory on the Bank of England website at the end of June. Macleod thinks that this was done in support of the gold price smackdown.
One has to wonder how that bullion will eventually be returned to its rightful owners, given that it apparently has been taken from the vault and delivered to the refineries en route to the East, or may even be sitting in some vault somewhere with a high stack of paper claims set against it.
Perhaps the claimants will be told to 'wait seven years' for it, or settle now for cash.
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