Merkel in trouble ? Bild polls indicate the answer might be yes ! AFD polling much stronger than let on.....

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/germany-election-update-afd-soars-in.html

Sunday, June 16, 2013 1:16 PM

Germany Election Update: AFD Soars in Online Poll

Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD anti-euro party leader) has emailed me several times since Friday about polls conducted by the German tabloid Bild.

Emphasis must be placed on the the word "tabloid" because intellectuals and academics do not tend to read the paper, nor even acknowledge its existence.

Nonetheless, Bild is the number one readership paper in Germany, by far, with about 20 million readers daily. And a poll is a poll, not a slanted news article.

The Bild is not a supporter of AfD in the least.

With that backdrop here are a few emails from reader Bernd.

Friday June 14 

 Hi Mish,

I hope you are well!

Today’s “Bild Zeitung” online poll show support for AfD above 20%, way higher than in any official poll.

If the chancellor could be elected directly, Angela Merkel would beat Peer Steinbrück by 63% to 37%. However, we do not elect the Chancellor directly. The party picture is what matters.

Merkel's current coalition (CDU/CSU/FDP) would only get 26% of the vote, not enough for her to remain as Chancellor without support from AfD or SPD.

Interestingly, the Bild did not even mention AfD in any coalition, a possible indication that Bild did not expect AfD to score anything above 5%.

That said, I caution that "Bild online" does not give a representative result for the entire German electorate. It can, at best, give a trend or tendency. The results suggest that AfD might be more popular than let on by German media.

Thank you, Mish, for your excellent observations on many topics not covered properly by other commentators.

Bernd

Saturday, June 15

 Hi Mish,

"Bild Online" has decided to repeat the poll again, this time on its home page.

Today's poll follows an article by the “Bild-Federal Government Team”, which makes a prediction for the coming elections. Their prediction is that only a CDU/CSU/SPD coalition can be formed – under Merkel’s leadership.

SPD will drop Steinbrück for that – after the elections (Steinbrück had made it clear earlier, that he won’t be available under Merkel’s leadership).

The online poll at 8:45 shows 170,000 participants:

CDU/CSU - 37%
AfD - 20%
SPD - 18%
Die Grünen - 06%
Die Linke - 06%
FDP - 05%
Others - 04%
Piraten - 03%

The Bild official prediction is that AfD won’t make it into Parliament, due to the 5% barrier.

Bernd

Sunday, June 16

 Hi Mish

The poll is now closed and AfD came third with 15%.

This is quite remarkable and would confirm my opinion, that at the moment, AfD has enough support to easily pass the 5% barrier. I told you way back, I see a potential for up to 12% for AfD. I see no need to change my mind at this point.

Bernd

Mish Comments

Online polls can be manipulated but Bernd counters with "To vote several times you need to clear the cache and clear the cookies each time. I guess 99% of Bild online readers do not know how to do that."

Still, the results are not scientific and a few very dedicated people could easily have hijacked the results. However, "could" and "did" are not the same thing.

I see this as very similar to the rise of the Five-Star Movement (M5S) in Italy, where the mainstream media gave M5S no chance, yet M5S ended up as the largest political party in Italy at election time.

If AfD gets as much as 10% of the vote and FDP does not clear the 5% threshold (both are likely), Angela Merkel will not survive the coalition building process or will be dramatically weakened in the process.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Italy Coalition  in trouble as well ?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/06/dumb-and-dumber-tax-hikes-in-italy.html

Dumb and Dumber Tax Hikes in Italy; Grand Coalition Splintering; Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up

One of the dumbest things a country can do in a recession is raise taxes. Yet, after pronouncing the end of austerity, Italy's "grand coalition" government, led by Enrico Letta, is going to hike the VAT.

Why? It seems they need to hike the VAT to pay for a decrease in property taxes.

Recall that Silvio Berlusconi was only willing to take part in Letta's grand coalition on condition property tax hikes were rolled back. Letta agreed to do that, but now Letta says Italy needs revenue hikes to make up for it.

Grand Coalition Splintering 

Curiously, the International Business Times reports Enrico Letta's Grand Coalition Could End Italy's 'Lingering Civil War' .

What nonsense. Letta's "grand coalition" is burnt toast already.

Eurointelligence gets it right. 

 Il Corriere della Sera and other Italian papers are leading with the news that finance minister Fabrizio Saccomanni and another cabinet ministers said yesterday that Italy cannot simultaneously afford to cut the IMU housing tax and not implement an envisaged rise in VAT, and would thus opt to raise VAT.

In its coverage, La Repubblica writes that Saccomanni is now becoming a controversial within the coalition, as Silvio Berlusconi appears to appear chosen him as a target for his verbal attacks. The VAT increase is threatening to drive a gulf between the two largest parties, the PD and Berlusconi’s PdL.

Another Italy Convulsion Coming Up

I agree with the following comments from Eurointelligence: "A rise in VAT is probably the worst thing that can happen right now ... Italy will miss the 2.9% deficit target, since the economy is likely to go into another convulsion once VAT is raised."

Beppe Grillo 5-Star Movement Implodes

As a side note the 5-Star movement of Beppe Grillo is imploding as well.

 Two more MPs have left the Movimento 5 Stelle parliamentary group, the Huffington Post Italia reports, bring the total number to five. Lawmakers Alessandro Furnari and Giuliana Labriola have quit M5S after internal fights, accusing Grillo of being a dictator and the party for failing to make substantive proposals. In an interview, Furnari said the M5S was dying due the Grillo’ mix of inexperience, rawness and vulgar display of ideas without content.

Grillo, meanwhile, has gone again on a verbal rampage. As reported by Il Corriere della Sera, he called the current Italian Parliament an "empty can of tuna." He said it was illegitimate because it was elected under an electoral law that he called is unconstitutional.

Support for Grillo is now down to 14% from over 25% in the election (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy).

Reader "AC", from Italy, predicted the rise of Beppe Grillo well in advance of any mainstream media coverage, also told me "Grillo has peaked" shortly after the national election. She called that one correctly as well.

Infighting is everywhere in Italy now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock