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Below are today’s likely price locations of buy and sell stop orders for the active Comex gold and silver futures markets. The asterisks (**) denote the most critical stop order placement level of the day (or likely where the heaviest concentration of stop orders are placed on this day).
See below a detailed explanation of stop orders and why knowing, beforehand, where they are likely located can be beneficial to a trader.
| August Gold | Buy Stops | Sell Stops |
| $1,323.00 | **$1,285.00 | |
| **$1338.00 | $1,250.00 | |
| $1.350.00 | $1,227.00 | |
| $1,364.50 | $1,200.00 | |
| July Silver | Buy Stops | Sell Stops |
| $20.25 | **$19.64 | |
| $21.00 | $19.50 | |
| **$21.12 | $19.25 | |
| $21.50 | $19.00 |
Quite the bloodbath but not a shocker today - gold did hit a low of 1288 overnight , which is right at the Fibonacci support at 1287 ! Silver broke through 20.50 , through 20 and went down to about 19.75 - 19.80 it would appear ! A look at where stops are paint a map of where things could be headed - and it's not pretty for those on the long side.....
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/06/fomc-announcement-causes-all-asset.html
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
FOMC announcement causes all asset classes to falter badly/Greece needs to find another 1 billion euros/Italian shops continue to close in rapid fire/
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed up by $7.60 to $1373.60 (comex closing time/prior to FOMC announcement). Silver fell by 5 cents to $21.62 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1351.60
silver: $21.38
At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 1077 contracts to 149,891 contracts reacting to silver's fall in price yesterday. The silver OI is still holding firm at these highly elevated levels. As I mentioned to you yesterday, the bankers will try and do everything possible to remove as many longs from the silver arena as possible. They must know something is up!!
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 4156 contracts to 377,106 which is still extremely low. There is no question that all of the weak speculators in gold have now departed. The number of ounces which is standing for gold in this June delivery month remains at 940,500 or 29.2 tonnes.The number of silver ounces standing in this non active month of June also remains constant at 705,000 oz
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold remains the same at 1.434 million oz or 44.60 tonnes. This is still dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex also remained the same at 7.706 million oz or 239.68 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory shows no change and rests tonight at its nadir of 136,380.611 oz or 4.24 tonnes. Its dealer inventory remains at 413,526.284 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major bullion dealers, Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan have in the Comex dealer account only 30.02 tonnes of gold
The GLD reported a loss in inventory of 1.51 tonnes of gold inventory. The SLV inventory of silver remained firm with no losses or gains in inventory.
Tonight, we have two commentaries from Bill Holter, one on gold and the second on the FOMC press conference today. Graham Summers dittos Bill Holter's comments. Gene Arensberg gives a technical analysis on the silver COT tonight.
We will go over these and many other stories but first.....................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest rose by 4156 contracts from 372,950 up to 377,106 with gold falling by $16.20 yesterday. That makes a lot of sense!! The front active month of June saw it's OI fall by 11 contracts from 945 down to 934. We had 11 deliveries served upon our longs yesterday,thus we neither gained nor lost any gold ounces standing in this June delivery contract month. The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI fell by 66 contracts down to 585. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 4005 contracts from 208,671 back up to 212,676. The estimated volume today was bad at 87,553 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was a little better at 132,824. It seems that many now realize that the Comex is a crooked game so investors are seeking other means to acquire gold.
The total silver Comex OI dropped as silver fell in price by 8 cents yesterday. It's total OI is down by 1007 contracts to 149,891. The longs in silver remain resolute, willing to take on the criminal bankers who try desperately to remove stubborn longs from the silver open interest. The front non active June silver contract month shows no change in OI at 25. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so in essence we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts. The next big delivery month is July and here the OI fell by only 2555 contracts down to 55,131. We are less than two weeks away from first day notice (June 28.2013) and judging from the relatively high OI in July, we may see some fireworks in silver. The estimated volume today was good coming in at 43,438 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was good at 62,918.
We had just one tiny customer deposits today into Brinks:
i) 32.15 oz (Brinks)
total customer deposit: 32.15 oz
It is very strange that in a big delivery month, we are witnessing no gold enter the dealer or even the customer.
we had no customer withdrawals:
i) total customer withdrawals: nil
thus, zero ounces were withdrawn from JPMorgan today as well as no notices from the dealer. However they did have 26 notices issued from JPMorgan's customer side.
As we reported to you two weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May, we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of last night 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Last Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
Today we had no issuance from any of the major bullion banks, JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
Today 26 notices were served upon our longs and all were issued by JPMorgan's customer account.
Thus:
From the beginning of June we have had 1553 notices served from the customer side of JPMorgan for 155,300 oz. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 226,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 217,844.96, this still leaves 9,066.04 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
Today we had no adjustments.
The total dealer comex gold thus remains at 1.434 million oz or 44.60 tonnes of gold.
The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer rests tonight at 7.706 million oz or 239.68 tonnes..
Thus tonight we have the following closing inventory figures for JPMorgan:
i) dealer account: 413,526.284 oz
ii) customer account remains at 136,380.611 oz. (or only 4.2 tonnes of gold)
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
Last Tuesday night (8 days ago) we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory
You will also recall two weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 58,795.82 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out, leaving the dealer side at 413,526.284 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 8 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks: Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan equal to 30.08 tonnes
i) Scotia: 285,596.23 oz or 8.88 tonnes
ii) HSBC: 270,197.277 oz or 8.4 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 413,526 oz or 12.8 tonnes
Brinks dealer account has the lions share of the dealer gold at 445,398.58 oz 13.89 tonnes.
There were no changes in inventory from all sides today.
Today we had 26 notices served upon our longs for 2600 oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in June, I take the OI standing for June (934) and subtract out today's notices (26) which leaves us with 908 contracts or 90,800 oz left to be served upon our longs.
8497 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 849,700 oz served upon + 908 contracts or 90,800 oz (left to be served upon) = 940,500 oz or 29.20 tonnes of gold.
We neither lost nor gained any gold ounces standing in this June delivery month.
We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes. Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA per month. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents 152.4% of that total production.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold is at a very dangerously low level of only 44.32 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the 29 tonnes from June have been removed from inventory as of yet.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 136,380 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 413,000 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 81,000 oz
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 30.08 tonnes of gold left!!
Gold closed up by $7.60 to $1373.60 (comex closing time/prior to FOMC announcement). Silver fell by 5 cents to $21.62 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1351.60
silver: $21.38
At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 1077 contracts to 149,891 contracts reacting to silver's fall in price yesterday. The silver OI is still holding firm at these highly elevated levels. As I mentioned to you yesterday, the bankers will try and do everything possible to remove as many longs from the silver arena as possible. They must know something is up!!
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 4156 contracts to 377,106 which is still extremely low. There is no question that all of the weak speculators in gold have now departed. The number of ounces which is standing for gold in this June delivery month remains at 940,500 or 29.2 tonnes.The number of silver ounces standing in this non active month of June also remains constant at 705,000 oz
Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold remains the same at 1.434 million oz or 44.60 tonnes. This is still dangerously low. The total of all gold at the comex also remained the same at 7.706 million oz or 239.68 tonnes of gold.
JPMorgan's customer inventory shows no change and rests tonight at its nadir of 136,380.611 oz or 4.24 tonnes. Its dealer inventory remains at 413,526.284 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.
The total of the 3 major bullion dealers, Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan have in the Comex dealer account only 30.02 tonnes of gold
The GLD reported a loss in inventory of 1.51 tonnes of gold inventory. The SLV inventory of silver remained firm with no losses or gains in inventory.
Tonight, we have two commentaries from Bill Holter, one on gold and the second on the FOMC press conference today. Graham Summers dittos Bill Holter's comments. Gene Arensberg gives a technical analysis on the silver COT tonight.
We will go over these and many other stories but first.....................
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest rose by 4156 contracts from 372,950 up to 377,106 with gold falling by $16.20 yesterday. That makes a lot of sense!! The front active month of June saw it's OI fall by 11 contracts from 945 down to 934. We had 11 deliveries served upon our longs yesterday,thus we neither gained nor lost any gold ounces standing in this June delivery contract month. The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI fell by 66 contracts down to 585. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 4005 contracts from 208,671 back up to 212,676. The estimated volume today was bad at 87,553 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was a little better at 132,824. It seems that many now realize that the Comex is a crooked game so investors are seeking other means to acquire gold.
The total silver Comex OI dropped as silver fell in price by 8 cents yesterday. It's total OI is down by 1007 contracts to 149,891. The longs in silver remain resolute, willing to take on the criminal bankers who try desperately to remove stubborn longs from the silver open interest. The front non active June silver contract month shows no change in OI at 25. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so in essence we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts. The next big delivery month is July and here the OI fell by only 2555 contracts down to 55,131. We are less than two weeks away from first day notice (June 28.2013) and judging from the relatively high OI in July, we may see some fireworks in silver. The estimated volume today was good coming in at 43,438 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was good at 62,918.
Comex gold/May contract month:
June 19/2013
the June contract month:
the June contract month:
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| 32.15 oz (Brinks) |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
26 (2600 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
908 (90,800 oz
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
8497 (849,700 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
78,856.579 oz
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 259,153.01 oz |
We again had no activity at the gold vaults
The dealer again had 0 deposits and no withdrawals.
We had just one tiny customer deposits today into Brinks:
i) 32.15 oz (Brinks)
total customer deposit: 32.15 oz
It is very strange that in a big delivery month, we are witnessing no gold enter the dealer or even the customer.
we had no customer withdrawals:
i) total customer withdrawals: nil
thus, zero ounces were withdrawn from JPMorgan today as well as no notices from the dealer. However they did have 26 notices issued from JPMorgan's customer side.
As we reported to you two weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:
Out of JPMorgan: 217,844.96 oz.
If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).
The last Tuesday in May, we had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of last night 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz still left to arrive in the settling process.
Last Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan
Today we had no issuance from any of the major bullion banks, JPMorgan, HSBC and Scotia.
In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:
Today 26 notices were served upon our longs and all were issued by JPMorgan's customer account.
Thus:
From the beginning of June we have had 1553 notices served from the customer side of JPMorgan for 155,300 oz. If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from May issuance, we get 226,911 oz. If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 217,844.96, this still leaves 9,066.04 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side.
Today we had no adjustments.
The total dealer comex gold thus remains at 1.434 million oz or 44.60 tonnes of gold.
The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer rests tonight at 7.706 million oz or 239.68 tonnes..
Thus tonight we have the following closing inventory figures for JPMorgan:
i) dealer account: 413,526.284 oz
ii) customer account remains at 136,380.611 oz. (or only 4.2 tonnes of gold)
Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:
Last Tuesday night (8 days ago) we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory
You will also recall two weeks ago on Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 58,795.82 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out, leaving the dealer side at 413,526.284 oz where it sits tonight.
On the dealer side here are the last 8 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:
Friday: zero
Monday: 1
Tuesday: 0
Wednesday : 0
Wednesday : 0
Thursday: 0
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
yesterday: 0
Today: zero from the dealer side .
Thus, 4946 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) so far (this month) for 494,600 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 413,526.284 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 81,074 oz (413,526 inventory - 494,600 oz issued = 81,074 oz)
In other words, the entire 413,526 must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 81,074 of additional gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Friday: 0
Monday: 0 .
yesterday: 0
Today: zero from the dealer side .
Thus, 4946 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) so far (this month) for 494,600 oz and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.
JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 413,526.284 oz.
Somehow we have a huge negative balance as i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle
and
ii) it is now deficient by 81,074 oz (413,526 inventory - 494,600 oz issued = 81,074 oz)
In other words, the entire 413,526 must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero, plus the 81,074 of additional gold
JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.
How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??
Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our 3 major bullion banks: Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan equal to 30.08 tonnes
i) Scotia: 285,596.23 oz or 8.88 tonnes
ii) HSBC: 270,197.277 oz or 8.4 tonnes
iii) JPMorgan: 413,526 oz or 12.8 tonnes
Brinks dealer account has the lions share of the dealer gold at 445,398.58 oz 13.89 tonnes.
There were no changes in inventory from all sides today.
Today we had 26 notices served upon our longs for 2600 oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in June, I take the OI standing for June (934) and subtract out today's notices (26) which leaves us with 908 contracts or 90,800 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in June:
8497 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 849,700 oz served upon + 908 contracts or 90,800 oz (left to be served upon) = 940,500 oz or 29.20 tonnes of gold.
We neither lost nor gained any gold ounces standing in this June delivery month.
We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes. Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA per month. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents 152.4% of that total production.
Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:
i) the total dealer inventory of gold is at a very dangerously low level of only 44.32 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the 29 tonnes from June have been removed from inventory as of yet.
ii) a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 136,380 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.
ii b) JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 413,000 oz. However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 81,000 oz
iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 30.08 tonnes of gold left!!
end
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
now let us head over and see what is new with silver:
Silver:
June 19.2013: June silver contract month:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 611,003.825 oz (CNT,Scotia) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 987.60 oz (Delaware) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 0 (nil oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 25 (125,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 116 (580,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 988,092.07 oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 4,329,885.7 oz |
Today, we had fair activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Delaware: 987.60 oz
total customer deposits 987.60 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Delaware: 987.60 oz
total customer deposits 987.60 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Scotia: 63,544.76 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 547,459.065 oz
total customer withdrawal : 611,003.825 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 547,459.065 oz
total customer withdrawal : 611,003.825 oz
we had 0 adjustments today
Registered silver at : 41.763 million oz
total of all silver: 164.386 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. In order to calculate what we believe will stand in the month of June, I take the Oi standing for June (25) and subtract out today's notices (0) which leaves us with 25 notices or 125,000 oz.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of June is as follows:
116 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 580,000 oz + 25 contracts x 5000 oz or 125,000 oz left to be served upon = 705,000 oz
we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing today.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of June is as follows:
116 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 580,000 oz + 25 contracts x 5000 oz or 125,000 oz left to be served upon = 705,000 oz
we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing today.
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: Well , we dropped below 1,000 tons in GLD physical inventory today - inventory at 999.56 tons ......
June 19/2013:
June 18.2013:
June 19/2013:
Tonnes999.56
Ounces32,136,872.89
Value US$44.1026 billion
June 18.2013:
Tonnes1,001.66
Ounces32,204,529.04
Value US$44.002 billion
Selected news and views.......
U.S. Mint Sales of Silver Coins Reach Record in 2013 First Half
Submitted by GoldCore on 06/19/2013 12:32 -0400
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- British Pound
- Exchange Traded Fund
- Futures market
- Monetary Policy
- recovery
- Silver ETFs
- Smart Money
- Volatility
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,366.00, EUR 1,019.86 and GBP 874.91 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,378.50, EUR 1,030.35 and GBP 880.32 per ounce.
Gold is marginally higher today but remains near the lowest level in four weeks, as a liquidity driven rally in stocks and investor caution over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is contributing to a nervous gold market.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could scale back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases if the U.S. economy strengthens, but a lack of clarity on the timing has unsettled markets. A policy statement from the central bank will be released today after its meeting.
Expectations are that the Fed may scale back its extremely unusual $85 billion per month debt monetisation programme to $60 billion a month and continue with near zero interest rates.
Both of which would be bullish for gold.
It would be very bearish for gold and silver if Bernanke was to indicate that bond buying would be phased out completely and interest rates allowed to rise to historic norms. However, given the very fragile nature of the US recovery, a return to conventional monetary policies is not going to happen any time soon.
The US economy remains massively indebted and the fiscal situation sees little sign of improving. Many states are on the verge of bankruptcy.
This is leading to continuing very robust physical demand from investors and store of value buyers internationally and in the U.S.
This demand can be seen in the lack of liquidations in the silver ETFs by investors and speculators, and by continuing store of wealth demand for silver coins and bars.
CME is catering for the demand by introducing a 1,000 ounce physical silver futures contract “due to demand from customers”.
“The smaller size will provide market participants with greater flexibility to manage their silver price risk, and serve as a more cost-effective tool for individual investors or others looking to hedge against economic uncertainty.”
The CME said it is deliverable against existing benchmark silver futures contracts.
Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a record high in the first half of 2013 seeing the best start to a year ever. Silver bullion coins were first offered in 1986.
Falling prices and concerns about being able to take delivery of coins amid continuing concerns about the US economy and currency debasement have led to the record demand.
Sales in 2013 have reached 24.03 million ounces and demand reached a monthly all-time high of 7.5 million ounces in January.
Demand remains at an “unprecedented level,” and sales of gold and silver coins may reach an annual record this year, Richard Peterson, the acting director of the mint, said on June 5.
Silver coin sales were suspended in January for more than a week because of a lack of silver inventory. In April, purchases more than doubled from a year earlier after prices tumbled 16% in two days due to unusually aggressive selling on the futures market.
Silver futures have declined 28% this year in New York, the biggest loss among the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index but the smart money is continuing to accumulate on the dip.
The death of the gold and silver bull markets is greatly exaggerated as seen in the still very robust physical demand from investors and store of value buyers internationally including the U.S.
Bull markets do not end in a period of sustained record physical demand nearly two years after prices have “peaked”.
This strongly suggests that silver’s bull market is far from over. Silver has gone from being massively undervalued in the early 2000’s to being fairly valued today. Bull markets end in speculative manias with mass participation by the public and blow off tops where prices become massively overvalued as seen in 1980.
This was clearly seen in 1980 when silver rose from $6.08/oz on January 2nd 1979 to $50/oz on January 21st 1980 or more than eight fold in less than 13 months.
This has not happened with silver yet. Most of the public does not even know the price of an ounce of silver, let alone its value and how to own it. Silver remains gold’s very poor cousin and gets little or no media attention.
The parabolic spike led to the gold silver ratio collapsing to 17 to 1 ($850 oz / $50 oz). We expect a similar outperformance and parabolic final price move in silver and it is likely that the gold silver ratio will revert to its long term historical average, seen throughout much of history, below 20 to 1.
Bull markets almost always see prices rise to above their inflation adjusted highs. Sometimes prices rise to multiples of their previous inflation adjusted high.
Silver’s inflation adjusted high was $130/oz and we continue to see that as a realistic long term price target. Given silver’s volatility, dollar, pound or euro cost averaging into position remains prudent.
Similarly, when prices have had a parabolic gain - dollar, pound or euro cost averaging out of a position will be prudent as it will be nigh impossible to time the top.
From Gene Arensberg on the positioning of silver:
(Got GoldReport/Gene Arensberg)
Special Got Gold Report - Large Trader Positioning in Silver Futures
HOUSTON – As a courtesy to our blog readership and the general public we are releasing an excerpt of our recent special report to Got Gold Report Subscribers on the positioning of large traders in silver futures. GGR Subscribers received the report via email and on the private GGR welcome page on Sunday, June 16.
This report documents the stunning positioning of the largest, best funded and presumably the best informed traders of gold and silver futures – the traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as “commercial,” including some of the bullion banks many of those traders end up trading through.
20-Year Low Combined Commercial Net Hedges for Silver Futures
As of June 11, commercial hedgers held a combined net short position so small, that when viewed as a percentage of all COMEX contracts open, it is the lowest in at least 20 years. In other words the people who hedge silver for a living are in no mood to put on net hedges or bets that silver will fall considerably lower in price with $21 handle silver.
Just below is one of the many charts in the report that detail the large trader positioning visually. To download the PDF of the report follow the link below.
(Combined Commercial Net Short Positioning since 1993 for silver. Lowest since 1997. Source: CFTC for COT, Cash Market for silver prices after 2003, LBMA for silver prices prior to 2004, GGR.)
Posted by Gene Arensberg at 07:03:42 AM in Got Gold Blog
The following needs no explanation. You will enjoy this latest offering from Bill Holter:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
Nice Chart:
Nice chart huh? Once upon a time in an age long long ago the amount of Gold held was equal to or more than the amount of debt owed. It didn't have to be like that, it would have been OK to have more debt than Gold as long as the debt got paid off...eventually...and in a currency that remained relatively constant. This of course did not happen, instead the "payable" currency was debased and debauched and somewhere along the way (probably back to the days of John Connally's "it may be our Dollar but it's YOUR problem" comment) it was decided that the debt would NEVER be paid off.
What has happened year after year is that new (and exponentially more) debt was issued (borrowed) to fund our lifestyle and payoff (roll) old debt principal and interest. When all of this started years ago..."debt worked" as a gearing mechanism. $1 borrowed would create more than $5 of GDP growth, this is not the case now. Now, $1 borrowed creates less than .50 cents of growth so we have gone from a very positive gearing to actually a negative gearing. Yes I know, "deficits don't matter"...until they do. Just ask the various European countries whether deficits matter or not.
The other part to this "nice chart" is the teeny tiny yellow part. That is the current market value of "our Gold". There is only one problem here, this truly and surely "WAS" our Gold as of 1956 (the last time an audit was done). Is the Gold still there? If it is, then who really owns it? Have we "swapped" it or "leased" it out? We know for a fact that economic numbers are "massaged" or in plain English bogus and just plain made up. We know that firm after firm pays fines (without admitting guilt) and markets, all markets are rigged to "paint the right picture", are Gold and Silver the ONLY markets not rigged? Is it possible that the U.S. has never sold any Gold to keep the price down and thus prop up the value of the Dollar? No chance, not even in hell.
So you look at this chart and on its own it has become and is very very frightening. The only problem is that the $16.5 trillion worth of debt is really and actually at least $100 trillion when you add in agency debt, off "budget" debt, loan guarantees and future promises. Then you look at the 8,400 tons of Gold and do a little bit of detective work and see that Gold exports have exceeded total mining production every year this century to deduce that "some" (maybe close to ALL) Gold has been dishoarded. If you reworked this chart with numbers that even resemble reality you get a very ugly picture with only one outcome...we're screwed and have been for years...we just didn't know it !
Regards, Bill H.
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- British Pound
- Exchange Traded Fund
- Futures market
- Monetary Policy
- recovery
- Silver ETFs
- Smart Money
- Volatility
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,366.00, EUR 1,019.86 and GBP 874.91 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,378.50, EUR 1,030.35 and GBP 880.32 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,378.50, EUR 1,030.35 and GBP 880.32 per ounce.
Gold is marginally higher today but remains near the lowest level in four weeks, as a liquidity driven rally in stocks and investor caution over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is contributing to a nervous gold market.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could scale back its $85 billion monthly bond purchases if the U.S. economy strengthens, but a lack of clarity on the timing has unsettled markets. A policy statement from the central bank will be released today after its meeting.
Expectations are that the Fed may scale back its extremely unusual $85 billion per month debt monetisation programme to $60 billion a month and continue with near zero interest rates.
Both of which would be bullish for gold.
It would be very bearish for gold and silver if Bernanke was to indicate that bond buying would be phased out completely and interest rates allowed to rise to historic norms. However, given the very fragile nature of the US recovery, a return to conventional monetary policies is not going to happen any time soon.
The US economy remains massively indebted and the fiscal situation sees little sign of improving. Many states are on the verge of bankruptcy.
This is leading to continuing very robust physical demand from investors and store of value buyers internationally and in the U.S.
This demand can be seen in the lack of liquidations in the silver ETFs by investors and speculators, and by continuing store of wealth demand for silver coins and bars.
CME is catering for the demand by introducing a 1,000 ounce physical silver futures contract “due to demand from customers”.
“The smaller size will provide market participants with greater flexibility to manage their silver price risk, and serve as a more cost-effective tool for individual investors or others looking to hedge against economic uncertainty.”
The CME said it is deliverable against existing benchmark silver futures contracts.
Sales of silver coins by the U.S. Mint have set a record high in the first half of 2013 seeing the best start to a year ever. Silver bullion coins were first offered in 1986.
Falling prices and concerns about being able to take delivery of coins amid continuing concerns about the US economy and currency debasement have led to the record demand.
Sales in 2013 have reached 24.03 million ounces and demand reached a monthly all-time high of 7.5 million ounces in January.
Demand remains at an “unprecedented level,” and sales of gold and silver coins may reach an annual record this year, Richard Peterson, the acting director of the mint, said on June 5.
Silver coin sales were suspended in January for more than a week because of a lack of silver inventory. In April, purchases more than doubled from a year earlier after prices tumbled 16% in two days due to unusually aggressive selling on the futures market.
Silver futures have declined 28% this year in New York, the biggest loss among the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index but the smart money is continuing to accumulate on the dip.
The death of the gold and silver bull markets is greatly exaggerated as seen in the still very robust physical demand from investors and store of value buyers internationally including the U.S.
Bull markets do not end in a period of sustained record physical demand nearly two years after prices have “peaked”.
This strongly suggests that silver’s bull market is far from over. Silver has gone from being massively undervalued in the early 2000’s to being fairly valued today. Bull markets end in speculative manias with mass participation by the public and blow off tops where prices become massively overvalued as seen in 1980.
This was clearly seen in 1980 when silver rose from $6.08/oz on January 2nd 1979 to $50/oz on January 21st 1980 or more than eight fold in less than 13 months.
This has not happened with silver yet. Most of the public does not even know the price of an ounce of silver, let alone its value and how to own it. Silver remains gold’s very poor cousin and gets little or no media attention.
The parabolic spike led to the gold silver ratio collapsing to 17 to 1 ($850 oz / $50 oz). We expect a similar outperformance and parabolic final price move in silver and it is likely that the gold silver ratio will revert to its long term historical average, seen throughout much of history, below 20 to 1.
Bull markets almost always see prices rise to above their inflation adjusted highs. Sometimes prices rise to multiples of their previous inflation adjusted high.
Silver’s inflation adjusted high was $130/oz and we continue to see that as a realistic long term price target. Given silver’s volatility, dollar, pound or euro cost averaging into position remains prudent.
Similarly, when prices have had a parabolic gain - dollar, pound or euro cost averaging out of a position will be prudent as it will be nigh impossible to time the top.
From Gene Arensberg on the positioning of silver:
(Got GoldReport/Gene Arensberg)
From Gene Arensberg on the positioning of silver:
(Got GoldReport/Gene Arensberg)
Special Got Gold Report - Large Trader Positioning in Silver Futures
HOUSTON – As a courtesy to our blog readership and the general public we are releasing an excerpt of our recent special report to Got Gold Report Subscribers on the positioning of large traders in silver futures. GGR Subscribers received the report via email and on the private GGR welcome page on Sunday, June 16.
This report documents the stunning positioning of the largest, best funded and presumably the best informed traders of gold and silver futures – the traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as “commercial,” including some of the bullion banks many of those traders end up trading through.
20-Year Low Combined Commercial Net Hedges for Silver Futures
As of June 11, commercial hedgers held a combined net short position so small, that when viewed as a percentage of all COMEX contracts open, it is the lowest in at least 20 years. In other words the people who hedge silver for a living are in no mood to put on net hedges or bets that silver will fall considerably lower in price with $21 handle silver.
Just below is one of the many charts in the report that detail the large trader positioning visually. To download the PDF of the report follow the link below.
(Combined Commercial Net Short Positioning since 1993 for silver. Lowest since 1997. Source: CFTC for COT, Cash Market for silver prices after 2003, LBMA for silver prices prior to 2004, GGR.)
Posted by Gene Arensberg at 07:03:42 AM in Got Gold Blog
The following needs no explanation. You will enjoy this latest offering from Bill Holter:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
Nice Chart:
Nice chart huh? Once upon a time in an age long long ago the amount of Gold held was equal to or more than the amount of debt owed. It didn't have to be like that, it would have been OK to have more debt than Gold as long as the debt got paid off...eventually...and in a currency that remained relatively constant. This of course did not happen, instead the "payable" currency was debased and debauched and somewhere along the way (probably back to the days of John Connally's "it may be our Dollar but it's YOUR problem" comment) it was decided that the debt would NEVER be paid off.
What has happened year after year is that new (and exponentially more) debt was issued (borrowed) to fund our lifestyle and payoff (roll) old debt principal and interest. When all of this started years ago..."debt worked" as a gearing mechanism. $1 borrowed would create more than $5 of GDP growth, this is not the case now. Now, $1 borrowed creates less than .50 cents of growth so we have gone from a very positive gearing to actually a negative gearing. Yes I know, "deficits don't matter"...until they do. Just ask the various European countries whether deficits matter or not.
The other part to this "nice chart" is the teeny tiny yellow part. That is the current market value of "our Gold". There is only one problem here, this truly and surely "WAS" our Gold as of 1956 (the last time an audit was done). Is the Gold still there? If it is, then who really owns it? Have we "swapped" it or "leased" it out? We know for a fact that economic numbers are "massaged" or in plain English bogus and just plain made up. We know that firm after firm pays fines (without admitting guilt) and markets, all markets are rigged to "paint the right picture", are Gold and Silver the ONLY markets not rigged? Is it possible that the U.S. has never sold any Gold to keep the price down and thus prop up the value of the Dollar? No chance, not even in hell.
So you look at this chart and on its own it has become and is very very frightening. The only problem is that the $16.5 trillion worth of debt is really and actually at least $100 trillion when you add in agency debt, off "budget" debt, loan guarantees and future promises. Then you look at the 8,400 tons of Gold and do a little bit of detective work and see that Gold exports have exceeded total mining production every year this century to deduce that "some" (maybe close to ALL) Gold has been dishoarded. If you reworked this chart with numbers that even resemble reality you get a very ugly picture with only one outcome...we're screwed and have been for years...we just didn't know it !
Regards, Bill H.
HOUSTON – As a courtesy to our blog readership and the general public we are releasing an excerpt of our recent special report to Got Gold Report Subscribers on the positioning of large traders in silver futures. GGR Subscribers received the report via email and on the private GGR welcome page on Sunday, June 16.
This report documents the stunning positioning of the largest, best funded and presumably the best informed traders of gold and silver futures – the traders the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classes as “commercial,” including some of the bullion banks many of those traders end up trading through.
20-Year Low Combined Commercial Net Hedges for Silver Futures
As of June 11, commercial hedgers held a combined net short position so small, that when viewed as a percentage of all COMEX contracts open, it is the lowest in at least 20 years. In other words the people who hedge silver for a living are in no mood to put on net hedges or bets that silver will fall considerably lower in price with $21 handle silver.
Just below is one of the many charts in the report that detail the large trader positioning visually. To download the PDF of the report follow the link below.
(Combined Commercial Net Short Positioning since 1993 for silver. Lowest since 1997. Source: CFTC for COT, Cash Market for silver prices after 2003, LBMA for silver prices prior to 2004, GGR.)
Posted by Gene Arensberg at 07:03:42 AM in Got Gold Blog
The following needs no explanation. You will enjoy this latest offering from Bill Holter:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
The following needs no explanation. You will enjoy this latest offering from Bill Holter:
(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)
Nice Chart:
Nice chart huh? Once upon a time in an age long long ago the amount of Gold held was equal to or more than the amount of debt owed. It didn't have to be like that, it would have been OK to have more debt than Gold as long as the debt got paid off...eventually...and in a currency that remained relatively constant. This of course did not happen, instead the "payable" currency was debased and debauched and somewhere along the way (probably back to the days of John Connally's "it may be our Dollar but it's YOUR problem" comment) it was decided that the debt would NEVER be paid off.
What has happened year after year is that new (and exponentially more) debt was issued (borrowed) to fund our lifestyle and payoff (roll) old debt principal and interest. When all of this started years ago..."debt worked" as a gearing mechanism. $1 borrowed would create more than $5 of GDP growth, this is not the case now. Now, $1 borrowed creates less than .50 cents of growth so we have gone from a very positive gearing to actually a negative gearing. Yes I know, "deficits don't matter"...until they do. Just ask the various European countries whether deficits matter or not.
The other part to this "nice chart" is the teeny tiny yellow part. That is the current market value of "our Gold". There is only one problem here, this truly and surely "WAS" our Gold as of 1956 (the last time an audit was done). Is the Gold still there? If it is, then who really owns it? Have we "swapped" it or "leased" it out? We know for a fact that economic numbers are "massaged" or in plain English bogus and just plain made up. We know that firm after firm pays fines (without admitting guilt) and markets, all markets are rigged to "paint the right picture", are Gold and Silver the ONLY markets not rigged? Is it possible that the U.S. has never sold any Gold to keep the price down and thus prop up the value of the Dollar? No chance, not even in hell.
So you look at this chart and on its own it has become and is very very frightening. The only problem is that the $16.5 trillion worth of debt is really and actually at least $100 trillion when you add in agency debt, off "budget" debt, loan guarantees and future promises. Then you look at the 8,400 tons of Gold and do a little bit of detective work and see that Gold exports have exceeded total mining production every year this century to deduce that "some" (maybe close to ALL) Gold has been dishoarded. If you reworked this chart with numbers that even resemble reality you get a very ugly picture with only one outcome...we're screwed and have been for years...we just didn't know it !
Regards, Bill H.
Nice chart huh? Once upon a time in an age long long ago the amount of Gold held was equal to or more than the amount of debt owed. It didn't have to be like that, it would have been OK to have more debt than Gold as long as the debt got paid off...eventually...and in a currency that remained relatively constant. This of course did not happen, instead the "payable" currency was debased and debauched and somewhere along the way (probably back to the days of John Connally's "it may be our Dollar but it's YOUR problem" comment) it was decided that the debt would NEVER be paid off.
What has happened year after year is that new (and exponentially more) debt was issued (borrowed) to fund our lifestyle and payoff (roll) old debt principal and interest. When all of this started years ago..."debt worked" as a gearing mechanism. $1 borrowed would create more than $5 of GDP growth, this is not the case now. Now, $1 borrowed creates less than .50 cents of growth so we have gone from a very positive gearing to actually a negative gearing. Yes I know, "deficits don't matter"...until they do. Just ask the various European countries whether deficits matter or not.
The other part to this "nice chart" is the teeny tiny yellow part. That is the current market value of "our Gold". There is only one problem here, this truly and surely "WAS" our Gold as of 1956 (the last time an audit was done). Is the Gold still there? If it is, then who really owns it? Have we "swapped" it or "leased" it out? We know for a fact that economic numbers are "massaged" or in plain English bogus and just plain made up. We know that firm after firm pays fines (without admitting guilt) and markets, all markets are rigged to "paint the right picture", are Gold and Silver the ONLY markets not rigged? Is it possible that the U.S. has never sold any Gold to keep the price down and thus prop up the value of the Dollar? No chance, not even in hell.
So you look at this chart and on its own it has become and is very very frightening. The only problem is that the $16.5 trillion worth of debt is really and actually at least $100 trillion when you add in agency debt, off "budget" debt, loan guarantees and future promises. Then you look at the 8,400 tons of Gold and do a little bit of detective work and see that Gold exports have exceeded total mining production every year this century to deduce that "some" (maybe close to ALL) Gold has been dishoarded. If you reworked this chart with numbers that even resemble reality you get a very ugly picture with only one outcome...we're screwed and have been for years...we just didn't know it !
Regards, Bill H.
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