Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Harvey Organ's Gold and Silver Report - June 25 , 2013 .... Data , News and additional views !

U.S. first-quarter GDP cut to 1.8% from 2.4%






By Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew a lot slower in the first quarter than previously believed, mainly because of less consumer spending on services and weaker business investment. Gross domestic product rose by 1.8% in the January-to-March period, down from a prior estimate of 2.4%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday in the last of three regular updates. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected growth to remain unchanged at 2.4%. The increase in consumer spending - the main engine of the U.S. economy - was lowered to 2.6% from 3.4%. Americans did not spend as much on services such as health care and legal advice, the government said. Outlays for services were reduced to a 1.7% increase from 3.1%. Investment in business structures such as office buildings and plants also fell a steeper 8.3% instead of 3.5% as previously reported. Meanwhile, exports were revised to show a 1.1% decline and not a 0.8% gain, while imports actually fell 0.4% instead of rising 1.9%. The biggest bright spot: residential investment jumped 14% in the first quarter, up from a prior read of 12.1%. That's further evidence of a housing market gaining momentum. Most other figures in the GDP report were little changed. 


Indian Rupee Drops To Record Low Against Dollar, Gold Crash Accelerates

Tyler Durden's picture





The unintended consequences of a centrally-planned world continue to peek through at the most unexpected of place, as moments ago the Indian Ruppe just plunged to a new all time record low against the USD, with the USDINR rising over 60 for the first time, triggering stops and overriding any potential USD selling intervention that the RBI may have attempted just below the resistance level which took place 59.985 according to Reuters.
A snapshot of events in India currently via Bloomberg:
  • Rupee drops 0.9% to 60.2250 per dollar; touches record 60.26.
  • USD/INR one-month implied volatility falls 32 bps to 11.60%; level suggests there is 68% chance rupee will drop to 62.2976 per dollar in a month (see that story here)
  • USD/INR risk reversal drops for third successive day, falling 17 bps to 1.80%; gauge of investor sentiment reached 2.23% last week, reflecting biggest pessimism on rupee in a year
  • Yield on nation’s 7.16% sovereign bonds due May 2023 rises 4 bps to 7.542%
  • One-year IRS falls 1 bp to 7.43%
Meanwhile the drubbing of gold and silver continues, with the yellow metal crashing to a three year low of $1224, down $50, silver down to $18.44, and the scramble to liquidate all metals into electronic pieces of "paper" accelerating.

Spot Gold and Silver trade with losses after the open of the Shanghai Metal Exchange

Update details:
- The Shanghai metal exchange opens at 0200BST and can sometimes see some volatile moves as the Chinese come into the market.
- Spot silver trades at its lowest level since August 2010.
- Spot gold trading at its lowest since September 2010.
Print01:08 - Asian News - Source: Newswires



Asian Deja Vu: Gold And Japanese Stocks Plunge Again

Tyler Durden's picture




Whether some major fund just got another tap on the shoulder or the liquidity cracks are showing up in all asset classes is unclear but just as we saw last night around the China open, gold and Japanese stocks are taking a tumble... while JGBs are relatively calm and JPY is modestly stronger. Chinese stocks, having read the actual report from the PBOC (as opposed to US media who merely guessed that it meant the stick-save was in), are selling off - though only down around 1% for now. Why?Simply put, if the PBOC promises to selectively save banks, how do you know which ones? So sell them all first... US futures are testing down towards day-session lows but not moving as aggressively as Japan.



24 HOUR GOLD
[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]




24 HOUR SILVER
[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]


Looks like we are seeing the Cartel in action tonight........ gold and silver big movers downward so far in Asia trading .......





http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/06/gld-inventory-plummets-by-over-16.html


Tuesday, June 25, 2013


GLD inventory plummets by over 16 tonnes/Total comex gold also falls/huge amounts of customer gold leave two customer accounts/Total amount of gold standing at the comex for June increases to 29.78 tonnes/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed down by $2.00 to $1274.80 (comex closing time ).  Silver rose by 4 cents to $19.53  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :

gold: 1278.00
silver:  $19.63


At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 710 contracts to 148,530 contracts reacting to  silver's fall in price yesterday.  The silver OI is still  holding firm at these highly elevated levels and within spitting distance of  record level highs.  As I mentioned to you yesterday, the bankers will try and do everything possible to remove as many longs from the silver arena as possible. The high OI in silver  could only mean somebody with huge deep pockets is standing and of course quite impervious to the pain of huge losses (e.g. a sovereign like China)
  
The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 1501 contracts to 394,253 despite gold's fall in price yesterday. The number of ounces which is standing for gold in this June delivery month  rose to 957,300 or 29.78 tonnes. The number of silver ounces standing in this non active month of June also rose by 10,000 oz to  725,000 oz

Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer inventory of gold remains at its nadir  in inventory at 1.359 million oz or 42.27 tonnes.  This is still dangerously low.  The total of all gold at the comex (dealer and customer) fell dramatically to 7.525 million oz or 234.05 tonnes of gold.

JPMorgan's customer inventory remains constant  tonight at 141,197.86 oz or 4.39 tonnes.  Its dealer inventory also remains constant at 408,709.033 oz but it still must settle upon contracts issued in the June delivery month which far exceeds its inventory.

The total of the 3 major gold bullion dealers( Scotia , HSBC and JPMorgan)  in its  gold Comex dealer account registers only 27.76 tonnes of gold

The GLD  reported another massive loss in inventory of 16.23 tonnes of gold inventory. The SLV inventory of silver showed a minor loss in inventory of 483,000 oz.




Kingworldnews and Eric King provide one great interview with John Embry you will not want to miss.

We also have a commentary from Bill Holter (Miles Franklin) who discusses JPMorgan's gold delivery issuances and inventory levels and what it can mean by the conclusion of the June delivery month.

James Turk and Peter Cooper also provide important physical stories for you today.

ON the paper side of things, Ambrose Evans Pritchard delivers a very important commentary on Italy where the second largest bank there claims that Italy will be in need of a bailout (bail in) within six months.  

 Mark Grant gives this thoughts today on the plight of Europe. 

And finally Michael Snyder continues with Bill Holter's theme of yesterday in that the huge rise in interest rates will cause massive failures in interest rate swaps.





We will go over these and many other stories but first.....................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:



The total gold comex open interest rose  by 1501 contracts from 392,752 up to 394,253 with gold falling by $14.90 yesterday. The front active month of June surprisingly saw it's OI rise by 47 contracts from  946 up to 993. We had 12 delivery notices  served upon our longs yesterday,thus we gained 59 gold contracts or 5900 additional  ounces will be standing in this June delivery contract month.Somebody was in terrible need of physical today. The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI fell by  33 contracts up to 547.  The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI fell by  394 contracts from  223,474 down to 223,080. The estimated volume today was fair at 169,944 contracts. The confirmed volume yesterday was in the same ballpark at 172,246.  


The total silver Comex OI fell by 710 contracts with silver falling in price yesterday by 47 cents.  The front non active June silver contract month shows a loss of 6 contracts down to 20. We had 8 notices filed yesterday so in essence we gained 2 silver contracts or an additional 10,000 oz of silver will stand for the June delivery month. The next big delivery month is July and here the OI fell by only 6036 contracts down to 36,016. We have 3 days left before first day notice (June 28.2013) and judging from the relatively high OI in July, we may see some fireworks in silver.  The estimated volume today was excellent coming in at 105,687 contracts, however we had considerable rollovers to the next active delivery month of September.  The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 90,092. 

 
Comex gold/May contract month:


June 25/2013

 the June contract month:




Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
156,310.70 (HSBC,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
 nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
 151 (15,100  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
842 (84,200 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8731  (873,100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
78,856.579 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
448,124.42 oz



We again had huge activity at the gold vaults
The dealer again  had 0 deposit and no  withdrawals.


We  had zero  customer deposits today :

total customer deposits:  nil  oz






It is very strange that in a big delivery month, we are witnessing hardly any gold enter the dealer or even the customer.

 we had 2 major  customer withdrawals:



i) Out of HSBC: 64,177.218 oz
ii) Out of Scotia:  92,133.482 oz

 total customer withdrawals:  156,310.70 oz  (4.8 tonnes)

you will recall yesterday I notified you that we had two major adjustments:



"i) Out of HSBC: 17,514.101 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account.



ii) Out of Scotia a monstrous 53,977.072 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer."

We have had very little issuance from HSBC and Scotia so I doubt if any of these adjustments was due to settlements. It seems that these individuals wanted their gold out of any official comex vault. Yesterday they adjusted out of the dealer accounts and today they abandoned ship!!

Today we had no adjustments.

Thus tonight we have the following JPMorgan gold inventory:

JPM dealer inventory:  408,709.033 oz   12.17 tonnes
JPM customer inventory:  141,197.86 oz  or 4.39 tonnes




As we reported to you two weeks ago, that JPMorgan withdrew a huge amount of gold from its customer account:

 Out of JPMorgan:  217,844.96 oz.

If you will recall, we needed to see 100,000 oz of gold removed from JPMorgan's customer account. (1000 contracts served upon our longs in mid May).

The last Tuesday in May (May 28), we  had 15,416.93 oz removed from the JPM's customer account. No doubt that this gold was part of the 1000 contracts issued by JPMorgan customer account and thus we calculated that as of tonight 28,389.579 oz was settled upon, leaving 71,611.00 oz  still left to arrive in the settling process.

 Tuesday, June 11, we had 217,844.96 actual ounces leave JPMorgan


Today, the CME reported that 151 notices were issued of which 0 came from JPMorgan's customer or dealer account. However 48 notices were stopped (received) by the J.P.Morgan's house or dealer account and we should see 4800 oz of gold arrive at its dealer account

In summary on the customer side of things for JPMorgan:

Today 0 notices were served upon our longs from the JPMorgan's customer side
(and zero from its dealer side).

Thus on JPMorgan customer side:


From the beginning of June we have had 1591 notices served from the customer side of JPMorgan for 159,100 oz.  If we add the 71,611.00 oz owing from  May issuance, we get  230,711 oz.  If we subtract the actual withdrawal of gold from JPMorgan of 217,844.96,  this still leaves 12,867.04 oz that needs to be settled upon from the vaults of JPMorgan customer side. Let us see how JPMorgan settles upon the new 4,817.251 oz of gold received on Friday from its dealer account into its customer account.

 



The total dealer comex gold remains tonight at its nadir of 1.359 million oz or 42.27 tonnes of gold.

The total of all comex gold, dealer and customer falls dramatically tonight to  7.525 million oz or  234.05 tonnes..

Now for JPMorgan's dealer side and what the inventory should be:

 On  June 11.2013 we reported that 4935 contracts have been issued by JPMorgan's house account since first day notice and not yet subtracted out of inventory


You will also recall two weeks ago on  Saturday (and again on that following Monday night,) I reported that JPMorgan had 470,322.102 oz in it's dealer account. From that day until now, 61,613.07 oz was either withdrawn or adjusted out, leaving the dealer side  at 408,709.033  oz where it sits tonight.

On the dealer side here are the last 13 trading sessions as to notices issued from JPMorgan's dealer side:


 Friday:  zero
 Monday:  1
 Tuesday:  0
 Wednesday :  0
 Thursday:  0
 Friday:  0
 Monday:  0 .
 Tuesday:  0
Wednesday: 0
Thursday:  0
Friday: 0
Monday:0
Tuesday: 0



Thus,  4946 notices have been issued by JPMorgan (dealer side) so far in June  for 494,600 oz  and these ounces have yet to settle from JPMorgan's dealer side.


JPMorgan's dealer vault registers tonight 408,709.033 oz.

Somehow we have a huge negative balance as   i) the gold has not left JPMorgan's dealer account and has yet to settle

and

ii) it is now deficient by 85,890.97 oz   (408,709.03 inventory - 494,600 oz issued =  85,890.97 oz)

In other words, the entire 408,709.03 oz must be first transferred out of Morgan's dealer category ( in the same format as in the customer category) leaving it with zero,  plus the 85,890.97 of additional deficient gold

JPMorgan has not had any deposits in gold in quite some time. As a matter of fact, zero ounces has entered on the dealer side from the beginning of 2013.


How will JPMorgan satisfy this shortfall??

Another disturbing piece of news is the low dealer gold inventory for our  3 major bullion banks:  Scotia, HSBC and JPMorgan equal to 27.76 tonnes



i) Scotia:  231,619.164 oz or 7.204 tonnes  (Monday... 285,596.23 oz or 8.88 tonnes)
ii) HSBC:  252,683.176 oz or  7.85 tonnes  (Monday 270,197.277 oz or  8.4 tonnes)
iii) JPMorgan: 408,709.033 oz or 12.71 tonnes

Brinks dealer account has the lions share of the dealer gold at 446,698.99 oz 13.894 tonnes



Today we had 151 notices served upon our longs for 15,100  oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in June, I take the OI standing for June (993) and subtract out today's notices (151) which leaves us with 842 contracts or 84,200 oz left to be served upon our longs.


Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in June:

8731 contracts x 100 oz per contract  or  873,100 oz served upon +  842  contracts or 82,200 oz (left to be served upon)  =  957,300 oz or 29.78 tonnes of gold. 

We gained 5900 gold ounces standing in this June delivery month.

 We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes.  Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA per month. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents  155.42% of that total production.

Ladies and Gentlemen: we have a three-fold problem:

i) the total dealer inventory of gold  is at a very dangerously low  level of only 42.27 tonnes and none of the 9.5 tonnes delivery notices from May and the 29.78 tonnes from June  have been removed from JPMorgan's inventory as of yet.

ii)  a) JPMorgan's customer inventory remains at an extremely low 141,197.86 oz.
If you are a customer of JPMorgan and have your gold in its vault, I think it is best to remove it before we have another fiasco like MFGlobal.

ii  b)  JPMorgan's dealer account rests tonight at 408,709.03 oz.  However all of this gold has been spoken for plus an additional 85,890. oz of deficient gold.

iii) the 3 major bullion banks have collectively only 27.76 tonnes of gold left in their dealer account. 





end






now let us head over and see what is new with silver:





Silver:



June 25/2013:  June silver contract month: 



Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventorynil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 301,488.75 oz (CNT,Brinks Delaware,) 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 48,007.35 (CNT)
No of oz served (contracts)8  (40,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)12  (60,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 133  (665,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month988,092.07 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month5,240,720.9 oz


Today, we  had good activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.




We had 1 customer deposit:

i) Into CNT:  48,007.35 oz


total customer deposits  48,007.35  oz


We had 3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT: 1000.40 oz

ii) Out of Brinks:  299,543.85 oz

iii) Out of Delaware;  944.50 oz






total customer withdrawal  :  301,488.75 oz 

  
we had 0    adjustments  today




Registered silver  at :  41.397 million oz
total of all silver:  164.849 million oz.




The CME reported that we had 8 notices filed for 40,000 oz  today. In order to calculate what we believe will stand in the month of June, I take the Oi standing for June (20) and subtract out today's notices (12) which leaves us with 12 notices or 60,000  oz.
  
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non  active delivery month of June is as follows:

133 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 665,000  oz  + 12 contracts x 5000 oz  or 60,000 oz left to be served upon =  725,000 oz

we  gained 10,000 additional silver ounces standing today.

end


Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:

June 25.2013:


WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




Tonnes969.50

Ounces31,170,424.23

Value US$39.850  billion





June 24.2013:






Tonnes985.73

Ounces31,692,296.65

Value US$40.764  billion






Today, the bleeding reaches a massive hemorrhaging stage. If I was a shareholder of GLD I would immediately call in the Serious Fraud Office in London to investigate the disappearance of GLD's only asset. Today GLD lost an astonishing 16.23 tonnes of gold.


The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold  departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.   There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks)






As a reminder the total comex gold had inventories of around 11 million oz in 2011. Today it lowers  to 7.525 million oz  (234.05 tonnes)

GLD gold:  969.5 tonnes.


*   *   * 


Selected news and views.......




Bill Holter tonight on the comex deliveries and JPMorgan's huge delivery issuance with zero amounts of gold entering its vault:


(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)


Crunch time for JP Morgan






We have 3 more trading days in June to end up the first half of the year and also 3 more days until June 28th.  This is the day that all June Gold futures contracts must be settled (or at least issued).  JP Morgan so far this month has issued 4,946 notices which amount to 494,600 ounces of Gold.  They claim to have 408,709.033 total Gold ounces in their inventory as of last night, this leaves close to an 86,000 ounce deficit between what they have already "sold" (issued delivery notices) and what they claim to have on hand. 

  I might mention that Harvey Organ spent a couple of hours 2 weeks ago to go back to the beginning of the year to see if any Gold was reported to have entered their dealer inventory.  Off hand he thought that none had entered and upon checking he confirmed that not one day so far this year has Morgan claimed to have received Gold for their dealer account.  How can this be?  We have 3 days left before deliveries are supposed to made yet JP Morgan sits with a deficit in their vault.  This really does not make sense because if you issue a notice you have every reason and incentive to get it done as soon as possible.  You receive cash for the Gold delivered and no longer have carrying costs so there is every reason to make the delivery as soon as possible because there is no gain whatsoever to waiting to make delivery.

  Oh yeah, "here he goes again" I will hear, but for what possible reason do you not make a delivery on a contract that you have already issued a notice on?  I don't know of ANY reason, (maybe someone out there can help me) except for one.  If you don't have the Gold...you cannot deliver it.  They have not reported receiving any Gold into the dealer inventory this year but they MUST receive at least 86,000 ounces...in the next 3 days or how else can they make full delivery?  And if they don't?  Then what?  Don't worry about it...it's a crappy investment anyway so here is some cash, don't spend it all in one place?



  I really cannot see them letting the game get away from them over less than a measly 3 tons of Gold.  GLD has bled some 25 tons over the last month or so, maybe they can get a hold of some of that metal?  Who knows?  One thing that we do know is that their "customer" inventory saw almost 70% drop in one single day leaving JP Morgan holding only 141,000 ounces of customer Gold.  Why the big withdrawal?  Lots and lots of questions, very few answers...but we certainly should have some sort of answer in 3 more days.  Let's see?  Regards,  Bill H.   P.S. 


as a brief addendum, Scotia and HSBC watched as customers withdrew 156,000 ounces from their vaults last night.  This is nearly 5 tons and well more than 10% of what is held by the 4 big custodians.  Customers seem to be pulling out while they have the chance.  The first one out may be a "paranoid" but the last one out is worse than a rotten egg...they are stuck?



end



RUSSIA, KAZAKHSTAN, AZERBAIJAN, KYRGYZ REPUBLIC, TURKEY BUY GOLD ON DIP



Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic and Turkey all increased their gold reserves in May.
Russia and Kazakhstan expanded their gold reserves for an eighth straight month in May, buying the metal to diversify assets due to increasing political, economic and monetary uncertainty.
Russian holdings, the seventh-largest by country, climbed 6.2 metric tons to 996.2 tons, taking gains this year to 4% after expanding by 8.5% in 2012, International Monetary Fund data show.
In ounce terms, Russia raised gold holdings to 32.027 million ounces in May from 31.829 million ounces in April. [Read more...]



Ganging Up on Gold




Gold, weekly. Obviously not a very convincing chart at the moment (via StockCharts), but we believe sometime between now and November a major low is likely to be put in (based on past correction analogues)
acting-man.com / By Pater Tenebrarum / June 25, 2013

A Plague of Gold Bears and The ‘Tapering’ Myth

Readers may recall that in 2010 and 2011, after largely ignoring the fact that gold had been going up for more than a decade, virtually all the major mainstream banks and brokers suddenly turned bullish on gold. It was a huge warning sign as we now know with the benefit of hindsight (and as a few people suspected at the time). At the time target prices for gold were all of a sudden raised by all these worthies. Not even one of them sounded an alarm.
These days, not a day passes when they are not ganging up on gold, practically falling over each other with ever more bearish forecasts. Here is the harvest from just the past two days:
And last but not least what is probably the funniest headline yet delivered by all these newly minted gold bears:
A major theme of these forecasts is, you guessed it, the Fed’s alleged imminent ‘QE tapering’, and/or ‘raising of real interest rates’. To the latter we would point out that real interest rates (nominal interest rates relative to inflation expectations) have indeed risen lately, but it was certainly not the Fed’s fault. They are rising in spite, not because of the Fed. In fact, their recent rise, which has surely sent a few ‘players’ scrambling for cash (and many imaginary bank profits into the nether reaches of money heaven), is a strong reason to suspect that monetary pumping will not only not be ‘tapered’, but may well end up being increased. But that is of course speculation and is neither here nor there. Instead, we want to point out a different error in the thought process described above. Keep in mind by the way, that the same banks that are bearish on gold due to the ‘tapering’ mirage are bullish on stocks inter alia because ‘tapering’ is thought to be ‘still far away’. In reality, all they are doing is extrapolate recent trends, while making up ‘reasons’ for these extrapolations that are meant to make it sound as though they actually knew why markets are doing what they are doing.



Is the gold price trying to tell us something? Is another 2008 lurking in the shadows?


monthlygoldchart
usagold.com / by Michael J. Kosares / June 24, 2013
This monthly gold chart is drawn on the logarithmic scale in order to remove some of the melodrama to the latest correction. Linear charts emphasize nominal price movement while a log chart emphasizes the percentage movement. By reviewing gold’s latest correction on a percentage basis, we can put things into a little bit better perspective. The 2008 correction was 26%; the current correction thus far has been 30%. In short, we’ve been here before though you wouldn’t know it from all the catterwauling at our favorite financial cable network and other media outlets (not to mention Wall Street itself). Granted we might not, as yet, have reached bottom, but then again, we could be close.
In preparing this chart, I couldn’t help but look for similarities between 2008 and the present. Although nothing has surfaced that should make us think another Lehman Brothers event might be in progress, it is difficult not to wonder if Marc Faber might be on to something.


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