http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/06/european-unemployment-rise-againdealer.html
( some interesting comments .... )
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4753/guest-post-bill-murphy-adds-turds-cot-analysis
Guest Post: Bill Murphy Adds To Turd's CoT Analysis
Earlier today, Bill asked if he could share my "Speechless Turd" post with his readers. In return, he graciously offered all of us this access to his latest metals market analysis.
So, here you go. Many thanks to Bill for his insights and his kind words.
MIDAS SPECIAL – Speechless Turd, Something Is Very Wrong, What Could Be Up!
Turd Ferguson, of the TF Metals Report, does superb work and commentary on the precious metals markets. His latest analysis on Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report caught my attention for a number of reasons, in addition to it being so well done.
TF's effort and analysis is well worth highlighting for a number of reasons…
*First the backdrop. The last QE announcement by the Fed in mid-September of last year was an impetus for stock and precious metals markets to move higher. The DOW did just that, dinking up day after day after day. But what has happened to gold and silver is a completely different story.
The prices of gold and silver did bump up very briefly, into the first week into October. But since the precious metals live in a Black is White and White is Blackworld, that was to be it. The Gold Cartel’s stepped-up war on gold and silver was about to begin … with the price of gold around $1793 and silver at $35 and change.
An effort to suppress the prices of each would commence in earnest on a daily basis like I had never seen before. Rarely has a day done gone by in all this time that The Gold Cartel could not be spotted implementing at least one of their repetitive selling tactics.
An entire diatribe could be written on why it was done, but simplistically put, the Fed/US is in a NO SOLUTIONS environment for the financial/economic predicament it has evolved into. The only way out, as they saw it, was to print money, etc. The best way to defuse the longer term ramifications of this action was to SHOOT THE MESSENGER, to disfunctionalize the barometer of US/world financial market health, that being the price of gold. Sister market silver was included because of its relationship to gold … a price dichotomy between the two could not be tolerated.
The escalated war on gold and silver was underway. But this time, The Gold Cartel included other countries, other bullion banks, various hedge funds, etc. It led to the unprecedented attacks on them on April 12 and April 15, as you know all too well. Since then, gold has made some effort to get into recovery mode, while silver has languished, flopping its way into the bottom end of its trading range following the historic raid on gold.
*What Turd’s work shows is that The Gold Cartel’s constant selling has had the effect of spec longs exiting, replacing them by the commercial crowd. The entire dynamic most of the way up of spec longs taking on the commercials has been in a process of reversing, especially since the financial market terrorist attacks of mid-April.
TF on the latest COT numbers which speak for themselves:
"The Bullion Banks have now reduced their net liability in gold by over 75% and, in silver, by over 83%...all since the game-changing announcement of QE8 last September."
This is an extraordinary development over a period of time and is setting up historic moves higher in the prices of gold and silver, which never should have been down at these artificially low levels in the first place. However, there are some caveats which need to be dealt with in the very short term…
-As noted in Friday’s commentary, the Gold Cartel was as visible on Friday as they were 8 months ago. The price plunges on Friday were NOT due to increased speculative selling, at least IMO. We know this because of the way gold and silver played out, in a similar manner as they have done for these debilitating 8 months. Gold failed miserably after breaking out of a 9 time top. Silver, after acting horribly on Thursday, then goes into new low closing territory for the entire move. If this were specs, we wouldn’t see the same trading patterns as we have witnessed all the way down.
-The numbers presented by the CFTC can’t be totally off, but something does not seem right to me. The bottom line is my take is that The Gold Cartel is using offshore, numbered accounts to make them look like spec accounts … in order to disguise what they are still doing and to create a much more bullish picture technically than is really the case ... to suck in even more unsuspectings that a bottom is in.
We know JP Morgan uses offshore accounts. Silver is trading so terribly, it tells me they are using them to further their agenda to bury the price so much that the stubborn longs finally capitulate. As demonstrated, while the gold open interest has collapsed in stunning fashion, the silver open interest is not far from multi-year highs. This is more than highly unusual and suggests something is not right with the visible gold/silver open interest pictures, as portrayed by the COT report.
Nothing that has happened to gold and silver the past many months has been normal. They have been caught up in a scorched earth Gold Cartel devastation policy. It is for ALL THE MARBLES, which is why The Gold Cartel recruited so many allies to assist them in their mission. No ruthless price suppression tactic would be left in the lurch. That gold gave up all of its breakout gains of Thursday above $1400, and then some, is a perfect example what the sordid cartel forces are prepared to do. They made this known to their allies in advance by crushing silver below key $23 the day before.
Their efforts are as well thought out as they are sinister. We are all aware of the hundreds of tonnes of outflows from the ETFs on the way down. Tonnage accumulated all the way up is being disgorged, facilitating other supply used by The Gold Cartel to meet stellar demand for physical. Much of the accumulation in the ETFs were by big league money managers in search of profit and performance for their investors. All was hunky dory with the price of gold going up every year … with gold yielding returns far higher than fixed income investments.
But suddenly all that changed with the gold/silver price collapses, accompanied by the daily relentless move higher of the US stock market. The Gold Cartel knew that money managers would be compelled to dump gold/silver ETF holdings because of their affect on relative performance. IMO, it was one of their reasons for the financial market terrorist attacks. Those money managers who were holding on just wouldn’t be able to take it anymore … and many have not. This all goes back to how comprehensive this vast and devious market manipulation scheme really is.
*So, back to what this may be all about, and it is just a maybe. A colleague of mine and I have gone back and forth for months about what The Gold Cartel’s end game plan is. Much of that has been covered numerous times in this commentary. But, there could be one more thing, which would be the blockbuster of blockbusters if the case.
There is a great deal of talk, as per Turd’s efforts, among others, about the commercials getting longer and longer relative to their normal short positions. There is also talk of The Gold Cartel actually getting long, or at least exiting their positions, before the historic move up in the precious metals begins in earnest. This is what the COT numbers have appeared to tell us over the past many weeks.
But, as already covered, the gold/silver price action doesn’t correlate to the supposed makeup of the open interest numbers. The Gold Cartel appears to be as aggressive as ever. Gold and silver would not be trading in a similar manner as they have since the beginning of October if their modus operandi had changed yet. There is one possibility of what could be going on which would shake the financial world. A thought…
Many in the GATA camp have long talked about an overnight revaluation of the price of gold. Pick a number: $3,000, $5,000+, etc. The reasons for such are for another commentary, but it is a constant theme in our camp. One day we will wake up on a Monday morning to find out the US and other western countries have reset the price.
We know the central banks have nowhere near the central gold they say they have, much of it being leased out. Over the last decade GATA has claimed, based on the input we have received over the years, they have less than half the gold they say they say, and that would be the best case. This is one reason central banks are so secretive about their real gold dealings … the US being a perfect example.
We know how the bullion banks/Gold Cartel have been so short over the years. If a decision was made to revalue the price of gold to that degree, a plan would first need to be implemented so they could cover as many shorts as possible on the Comex and in other venues. It would have to be one like never seen before … both vicious and long-lasting. It would also involve disgorging physical gold and silver positions from the ETFs, badly needed to cover physical precious metals short positions.
Perhaps one of the most misunderstood notions among uninformed precious metals reporters, and the likes of a clueless Doug Casey, is their claim The Gold Cartel has done a lousy job of suppressing the price of gold all these years as per the 12 year price advances. When I explain to reporters how much money they have made by fleecing spec longs over the years with raids like the last one, they go blank. Think how much money JP Morgan has made with their raids on silver in 2008 and in the past year alone, much less mini spank jobs in between and all the way up.
There is only ONE way the price of gold can be revalued without the bullion banks/Gold Cartel getting destroyed, and that is to do it with the price devastated and many of the bullion bank’s shorts covered on the way down, replaced by unsuspecting spec shorts. As it is now, the specs will cover their shorts and go long, as they always do, once the technicals turn positive, moving averages turn, etc. Those longs will need to have corresponding shorts in the futures market. This means the same drill on the way up again as The Gold Cartel does what they do and slows price advances down. To stop a price explosion down the road they will be forced to go back as short as they ever were.
And that will be the case, UNLESS, there is an overnight price reevaluation. In that case, instead of shorting gold all the way up, they would suddenly only need to sell gold at those $3,000 to $5,000 numbers, or not at all. It would be the perfect exit plan to end their nefarious activities over the last number of decades. Mission accomplished.
It would also accomplish something else. An overnight price of that magnitude would bring owners of gold (silver too, as who knows what that price would soar to) out of the woodwork, including me. Gold and silver would flood the marketplace at those dramatically higher prices. This would allow the physical gold and silver shorts to replenish/reconcile the positions on their books. Yes, those losses from selling low and buying high would be considerable, but only a drop in the bucket compared to money made/saved in other financial market arenas … even compared to the costs of saving the western financial market system as a whole.
Their physical market lease losses could also be minimized by buying way out of the money calls on the Comex or on the Over the Counter Market. They could be purchased with very little impact on the futures price because of their distance … i.e., there would be very little delta hedge buying of futures by the writers of the calls.
Should this occur, the effect on the Comex would be devastating. The number of unsecured deficits would blow the exchange out of the water. How ironic it would be that such a dramatic move would cause a never expected Force Majeure … the failure of spec shorts to send sudden losses to the Comex to meet their unsecured, massive overnight money losses. It is doubtful the Comex could survive such an event. Maybe that would be just fine with The Gold Cartel, as they move on.
Whether this sort of clandestine operation is in play or not, we are in the process of moving to one of three monumental money making opportunities of all time. They are all WIN WIN…
- We are close to the time of a short covering squeeze, and the end of the unending Gold Cartel bombings initiated in early October.
- As is my thinking, we have more to endure before the price moves of gold and silver really kicks in.
- This blatant, never-ending assault on gold and silver actually is leading to an overnight night reevaluation in the months ahead.
They are the three in play, IMO. All of them dictate staying with physical market gold and silver positions … and building gold/silver share positions in your firms of choice.
Yes, investing in them, in many cases, has been a disaster for years now. But, what goes around, comes around. In all of the above cases the odds, at this point, of them taking off as per what occurred in the internet mania at the end of the 1990’s, is on the increase, with the risk/reward situation way more than favorable.
To conclude, watching how the gold/silver shares trade in the weeks and months ahead is likely to take on increasing importance. They led the way down and are likely to give us an indication of the major turn in the gold and silver markets. In any of the above scenarios, we need more action in the PM Shares like we saw on Friday, in which they held up very well considering what the US stock market and gold/silver markets did … and that is after a couple of solid up days.
In all of these scenarios The Gold Cartel, and allies, will want to cover their shorts in the share market ahead of any of the above retreat scenarios. Can you imagine what the shares would do on an overnight basis on a revaluation? Sweet dreams on that thought!
===================================
and....
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/rick-rules-reasons-to-buy-gold-and-select-gold-stocks
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD & SILVER
The high tick in gold [around $1,423 spot] came about 9:30 a.m. on Friday morning Hong Kong time...and it was all down hill from there. Quietly at first, but shortly before 1:00 p.m. BST in London, the sell-off became more pronounced...and the low of the day [$1,383.90 spot] came around 4:00 p.m. in electronic trading in New York. After that, the gold price recovered a bit during the last hour of trading.
Gold closed on Friday in New York at $1,388.30 spot...down $25.40 on the day. Net volume was around 154,000 contracts.
It was pretty much the same general price pattern in silver. The high of the day [around $22.90 spot] came about 10:00 a.m. in Hong Kong. The big difference between gold and silver's price path, was that silver's low tick [$22.10 spot] came shortly before 9:00 a.m. EDT in New York...and the subsequent rally wasn't allowed to get too far.
Silver closed at $22.65 spot...down 51 cents on the day. Gross volume was about 51,500 contracts.
The dollar index closed at 83.01 on Thursday afternoon in New York. It began to rally unsteadily almost right from the open of Friday trading in the Far East...and hit its high tick of 83.57 just minutes after 11:00 a.m. in New York...before giving up some of those gains as the afternoon wore on. The index closed at 83.28...up 27 basis points on the day.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the gold price falls faster on dollar rallies than it rises on dollar declines...with yesterday's [and Thursday's] price action being a case in point.
* * *
The CME's Daily Delivery Report for 'Day 2' of the June delivery month in gold showed that 1,415 gold and 2 lonely silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. In gold, the biggest short/issuer was Deutsche Bank with 661 contracts. JPMorgan Chase was a distant second with 192 contracts out of its proprietary [in-house] trading account. The two biggest long/stoppers were HSBC USA with 798 contracts...and Barclays with 530 contracts. Of those 530 contracts, 324 were from it's in-house trading desk...and the other 206 were out of its client account. Once again, Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia was conspicuous by its absence.
This list of Issuers and Stoppers is quite extensive...and well worth checking out. The link to that report is here.
For the second day in a row, there were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV. I'll go out on a limb here and state that the withdrawals in GLD appears to have ended.
Joshua Gibbons, the Guru of the SLV Bar List, updated his website for activity within SLV for the week ending at the close of business on Wednesday, May 29th...and here, in part, is what he had to say: "Analysis of the 29 May bar list, and comparison to the previous week's list...5,649,010.9 troy oz. were removed (all from Brinks London). No bars were added...or had a serial number change." The link to the rest of his brief comments is here.
The U.S. Mint had a small sales report to close off the month of May. They sold an additional 8,500 ounces of gold eagles...and that was all. For May, assuming there are no changes made in these statistics on Monday, the mint sold 70,000 ounces of gold eagles...12,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 3,458,500 silver eagles. Based on these sales numbers, the silver/gold sales ratio for the month works out to a hair under 42 to 1...which is quite amazing. The ratio would have been even more impressive if the U.S. Mint had received all the silver blanks they needed, as they are still sitting on massive unfilled orders for silver eagles.
In silver, over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving 600,025 troy ounces...and shipped 141,008 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that activity is here.
In gold, there were 3 kilobars shipped out of Brink's, Inc...and 6 kilobars shipped out of Scotia Mocatta. You could easily carry all nine bars in two hands. The link to that 'action' is here.
Well, the Commitment of Traders Report, for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday was precisely what I was expecting/hoping to see. The missing data from last week's COT Report has appeared in this week's data...and what the numbers show is amazing.
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by another 18.0 million ounces...and is now down to 41.7 million ounces. According to reader E.W.F...that's the lowest it's been since August 7, 2001.
The Big 4 are short 194.0 million ounces of silver...and you read that right. That represents 35.5% of the entire Comex futures market on a 'net' basis...once you subtract out all the market-neutral spread trades.
What it also means is that the 'Big 4' are short almost five times the total Commercial net short position in silver...41.7 million ounces vs. 194.0 million ounces. That's astounding!
The '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 55.9 million ounces of silver...and that amount represents 10.2 percentage points of the Comex futures market. So the largest 8 traders are short 45.7% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.
Reader E.W.F. also pointed out that..."The silver raptors [the 32 remaining traders in the Commercial category, other than the Big 8] hold their largest net long position in the history of the data (1987). The silver non-commercials hold their smallest net long position since April 22, 2003."
In gold, the numbers are just as amazing. The Commercial net short position there declined by 2.49 million ounces...and is now down to an eye-watering 5.92 million ounces. Reader E.W.F. says that..." The commercial net position in gold is at it's lowest level since May 2005."
The Big 4 are short 8.8 million ounces of gold...and that represents a hair under 26.0% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a 'net' basis....and 148% of the Commercial net short position.
The Big 4 are short 8.8 million ounces of gold...and that represents a hair under 26.0% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a 'net' basis....and 148% of the Commercial net short position.
The '5 through 8' largest traders in gold are short an additional 4.64 million ounces of gold and, on a 'net' basis that represents another 13.7 percentage points of the total Comex futures market in gold on a 'net' basis. The 'Big 8' are short 127% of the Commercial net short position in gold.
As well, the 'Big 8' are short 39.7% of the entire Comex futures market in gold on a net basis. Reader E.W.F. also pointed out that "The gold raptors hold their largest net long position since September 9, 2008. The non-commercial gold traders hold their smallest net long position since January 2007."
These numbers in both silver and gold redefine the meaning of the words "concentrated short positions".
Silver analyst Ted Butler mentioned that something wasn't quite right about some of the numbers in this week's COT Report...especially in gold...and I'll be interested in what he has to say about it in his commentary to his paid subscribers later today...or tomorrow...as he's "on the road" at the moment.
Needless to say, we are at levels not seen [in some cases] in a decade or longer...and that's when the prices were at rock bottom. Can we go lower from here? I suppose, but if I were you I'd be buying physical metal with both hands if it does happen.
Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Comex Short Positions" in all physical commodities traded on that exchange.
(Click on image to enlarge)
In silver, over 90% of that red line are the positions held by the 'Big 3' bullion banks...JPMorgan Chase, Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia...and HSBC USA. The short positions of the fourth trader in the 'Big 4' category are immaterial.
Here are a couple of charts courtesy of Washington state reader S.A. The top one is the 25-year chart for gold...and the second one is the 25-year dollar index chart. The gold price and dollar index went in opposite directions up until the first part of 2008...and after that, the relationship blew up. So when I hear all this b.s. talk about the gold price being tied in an inverse relationship with the dollar index, I know it just ain't so...and here's the proof.
(Click on image to enlarge)
(Click on image to enlarge)
* * *
selected news and views.....
Sprott's Thoughts: Chart of the Week...10 Year Treasury Rates are ‘Backing Up’
It’s been a tough month for U.S. bond funds. Our chart of the week depicts the increase in the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Yields have increased by more than 25% from 1.63% on May 1st to 2.12% on May 30th. This quick sell-off hurts investors most at funds holding long-term debt, which is sensitive to surging interest rates. Bonds have tumbled around the world this month with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Index down 1.3% in May, poised for the steepest loss since April 2004, while Treasuries have dropped 1.9%.
This short commentary by David Franklin, who I had the pleasure of having breakfast with last Monday in Vancouver, is well worth the read...and the chart alone is worth the trip.
Doug Noland: It's Going to be Another Interesting Summer
Well, the global “system” has had more than four years of ongoing artificially low rates, unprecedented liquidity overabundance and central bank market backstopping that would seem to ensure the accumulation of all varieties of financial excesses. And as far as I’m concerned, this latest speculative run in U.S. stocks is just one more excess adding to already major global fragilities. It’s worth noting that stocks, commodities and bonds all were in retreat on Friday. At least for a day, it had the look of de-risking, de-leveraging and waning liquidity.
There’s always that thin line between fervent speculative excess along with the perception of unending liquidity abundance and a vulnerable speculative Bubble. Emerging market (EM) funds suffered their worst week of outflows since December 2011. In the nineties, the emerging markets came to be called “roach motels.” Part of the ongoing EM bull story has been the large accumulation of international reserves by these economies – that would ensure no nineties-like repeat of “hot money” flight and attendant financial and economic dislocation. To what extent these reserve holdings enticed only larger “hot money” inflows is today a pertinent issue. Also apropos is the consequence to market liquidity if the EM central banks were forced to sell some of their reserve holdings to support their currencies against a “hot money” (de-risking/de-leveraging) run to the exits.
There’s always that thin line between fervent speculative excess along with the perception of unending liquidity abundance and a vulnerable speculative Bubble. Emerging market (EM) funds suffered their worst week of outflows since December 2011. In the nineties, the emerging markets came to be called “roach motels.” Part of the ongoing EM bull story has been the large accumulation of international reserves by these economies – that would ensure no nineties-like repeat of “hot money” flight and attendant financial and economic dislocation. To what extent these reserve holdings enticed only larger “hot money” inflows is today a pertinent issue. Also apropos is the consequence to market liquidity if the EM central banks were forced to sell some of their reserve holdings to support their currencies against a “hot money” (de-risking/de-leveraging) run to the exits.
Doug's commentary this week certainly falls into the must read category as well...and he quotes former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker at length from his speech at The Economic Club of New York on Thursday. So top up your coffee, or blow the froth off [another] cool one...and get started.
World Bank Insider Blows Whistle on Corruption, Federal Reserve
A former insider at the World Bank, ex-Senior Counsel Karen Hudes, says the global financial system is dominated by a small group of corrupt, power-hungry figures centered around the privately owned U.S. Federal Reserve. The network has seized control of the media to cover up its crimes, too, she explained. In an interview with The New American, Hudes said that when she tried to blow the whistle on multiple problems at the World Bank, she was fired for her efforts. Now, along with a network of fellow whistleblowers, Hudes is determined to expose and end the corruption. And she is confident of success.
Citing an explosive 2011 Swiss study published in the PLOS ONE journal on the “network of global corporate control,” Hudes pointed out that a small group of entities — mostly financial institutions and especially central banks — exert a massive amount of influence over the international economy from behind the scenes. “What is really going on is that the world’s resources are being dominated by this group,” she explained, adding that the “corrupt power grabbers” have managed to dominate the media as well. “They’re being allowed to do it.”
G. Edward Griffin would be familiar with this, as it's the central theme of his world-famous book "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve". It was posted on thenewamerican.com Internet site about ten days ago...and I thank Nick Laird for sending it to me this past Tuesday. For obvious reasons, it had to wait for a spot in today's column...and here it is. It'sdefinitely worth your time as well...as is Ed Griffin's book.
Citing an explosive 2011 Swiss study published in the PLOS ONE journal on the “network of global corporate control,” Hudes pointed out that a small group of entities — mostly financial institutions and especially central banks — exert a massive amount of influence over the international economy from behind the scenes. “What is really going on is that the world’s resources are being dominated by this group,” she explained, adding that the “corrupt power grabbers” have managed to dominate the media as well. “They’re being allowed to do it.”
G. Edward Griffin would be familiar with this, as it's the central theme of his world-famous book "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve". It was posted on thenewamerican.com Internet site about ten days ago...and I thank Nick Laird for sending it to me this past Tuesday. For obvious reasons, it had to wait for a spot in today's column...and here it is. It'sdefinitely worth your time as well...as is Ed Griffin's book.
Two King World News Blogs
The first interview is with Eric Sprott...and it bears the headline "This is Why There is Such a Massive Shortage of Gold". The second commentary is byEgon von Greyerz...and it's entitled "The Current Level of Physical Gold Being Traded is Shocking".
¤ THE WRAP
No kingdom can be secured otherwise than by arming the people. The possession of arms is the distinction between a freeman and a slave. -- "Political Disquisitions", a British republican tract of 1774-1775
Today's pop blast from the past comes from the mid 1960s. This baroque American group had two big hits...and this would be the biggest one of the bunch. If you're of that vintage...you should know it instantly. The link is here...and their other big hit is linked here.
Today's classical 'blast from the past' is Tchaikovsky's Piano Concerto #1 in B-flat minor, Op.23...and played by the incomparable Martha Argerich. Charles Dutoit conducts the Orchestre de la Suisse Romande. The video recording is from 1975...but it's first rate...and in some parts it sounds almost identical to the "Van" Cliburn recording of this work. Both Martha and Charles were a lot younger back then...as were we all. I thank Rob Bentley for sending me this youtube.com clip back in mid February. The link is here.
I forgot that yesterday was not only Friday, but also the last day of the month, so I'm not entirely shocked that the prices of all four precious metals got sold down. Although it should be noted that the sell-off in the stock market and the rise in the dollar index probably were factors as well.
But as the Dow plunged into the 4:00 p.m. close in New York...the precious metal stocks were rallying sharply during the last twenty minutes of trading...and one has to wonder who was buying. Whoever they were, it's a good bet that they were strong hands.
Gold is now safely back under $1,400 spot for the moment...and the rallies in both gold and silver 'failed' at their respective 20-day moving averages.
Although I was pleased and relieved to see the Commitment of Traders Report turn out as I expected, I must admit that it's been amazing to watch how easily JPMorgan et al have been able to maneuver precious metals prices lower over the last six months...and slowly but surely extricate themselves from a large chunk of their short positions. They aren't totally out of the woods, but they are certainly in total command of precious metal prices at the moment.
But whenever this engineer price decline reaches its conclusion, it's a very good bet that "da boyz" will be well positioned to profit from the repricing of all four precious metals when the great financial reset I've been waiting for finally puts in an appearance.
Ted Butler was absolutely correct when he said that the final sell-off before the inevitable price reset would scare the hell out of everyone...and I'm sure he didn't know the form it was going to take. I was expecting a scenario that unfolded much quicker than this, but that certainly didn't turn out to be the case.
It all appears to be quite well planned, as they don't seem to be in a big rush, but that's purely speculation on my part. However, as I've pointed out countless times in this space, the world's economic, financial and monetary system as we know them today, are toast...and I'm not the only person who thinks that. Everything I see happening out there is in preparation for whatever the powers-that-be have planned...and this is particularly true of what's happening in precious metals. The only unknown is the timing of the "end of all things" as we know them today.
And as I've also said before...when that day does arrive...you'll either be all the way in, or all the way out. I expect that JPMorgan et al will maneuver things in such a way that there will be no way to jump aboard if you want to go long...and it will be the perfect bear trap for all those currently short the market, as they will most certainly get hung out to dry.
Before signing off on today's column, here's Nick Laird's "Total PMs Pool" graph...and as I mentioned further up, it appears that we've reached the end of the withdrawals from GLD as the total ounces in that ETF has remained unchanged for the last two days in a row, which is the first time that's occurred in over six months.
(Click on image to enlarge)
That's it for the day...and the week. Enjoy what's left of your weekend...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/06/european-unemployment-rise-againdealer.html
Saturday, June 1, 2013
European unemployment rise again/Dealer or registered comex gold declines again/GLD gold remains constant/ Another gold and silver raid
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down $18.40 to $1392.60 (comex closing time). Silver fell by 44 cents to $22.23 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1388.30
silver: $22.27
It seems that 85% of all Friday's we witness a gold/silver raid. Friday is such a good day for the bankers to whack due all the physical players leave London early for their weekend retreat. They did not disappoint us again today with their stupid raid.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 26 contracts to 145,999 contracts with silver's rise in price on Thursday by 27 cents. The silver OI is holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 2110 contracts to 385,901 which is extremely low considering we have deliveries which must be subtracted from OI.There is no question that all of the weak speculators in gold have now departed. Only the strong remain. The number of ounces which stands on first day notice is 1,051,300 or 32.69 tonnes.The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery for first day notice is represented by 155 contracts or 775,000.
Again, at the Comex, gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold lowers again to 1.571 million oz or 48.86 tonnes. The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly and now above the 8 million oz at 8.054 million oz or 250.5 tonnes of gold. However we must see gold leave as contracts are settled for the May and June delivery months.
The GLD reported no change in inventory in gold. The SLV inventory of silver also remained firm with no losses.
Today we have a good conversation between Stephen Leeb and Eric King of Kingworld news and they cover the drive by shooting of gold/silver on April 12 -15. Brien Lundin also covers the same topic.
We have a great commentary courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (author Roy) on the hopeless attempts by Indian authorities trying to rein in huge spending of gold by its citizens. How on earth are you going to break centuries of tradition?
I have repeated the excellent commentary on gold written by Alasdair Macleod.
We will go over these and other stories but first.....................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest fell rose by 2110 contracts from 383,791 up to 385,901 with gold rising by $21.00 yesterday. Friday is first day notice for the gold and silver contract month of June. Late Thursday night, I notified you that we had 4571 contracts served upon our longs for 457,100 oz (14.21 tonnes). At 2:00 o'clock Friday afternoon we received the OI standing for June and it was a pretty decent amount standing equating to 10,513 contracts or 1,051,300 oz (32.7 tonnes). The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI rose by 2 contracts. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 16,659 contracts from 205,492 up to 221,946. This figure equates almost exactly to the loss from the June contract month of 16,937. Thus of the 16,937 loss in June ,16,659 rolled into August. The estimated volume today was fair at 157,070 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was good at 260,441 contracts.
The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. Its OI rose by 26 contracts to 145,999, with silver's rise in price of 27 cents Thursday. The CME reported to us late Thursday night that we had only 20 notices served upon our new outstanding longs for 100,000 oz. The OI for the non active front month of June now stands at 155 contracts and thus the initial reading for what will stand equates to 750,000. This number will surely rise. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI fell by only 133 contracts, from 75,004 down to 74,871. The estimated volume today was good, coming in at 44,991 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was great at 55,872.
We had 0 customer deposit today:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 2 tiny customer withdrawals today:
i) out of Brinks 98.05 oz
ii) out of Scotia: 198.552 oz
total customer withdrawals: 296.602 oz
4571 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 457,100 oz served upon + 5942 contracts or 594200 oz (left to be served upon) = 1,051,300 oz or 32.69 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely good showing for gold..
We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes. Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA per month. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents 167% of that total production.
i) out of Brinks: 9838.16 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 28,201.57 oz
iii) out of JPM: 24,228.50
total customer withdrawal 62,268.232 oz
Gold closed down $18.40 to $1392.60 (comex closing time). Silver fell by 44 cents to $22.23 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :
gold: 1388.30
silver: $22.27
It seems that 85% of all Friday's we witness a gold/silver raid. Friday is such a good day for the bankers to whack due all the physical players leave London early for their weekend retreat. They did not disappoint us again today with their stupid raid.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 26 contracts to 145,999 contracts with silver's rise in price on Thursday by 27 cents. The silver OI is holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts rose by 2110 contracts to 385,901 which is extremely low considering we have deliveries which must be subtracted from OI.There is no question that all of the weak speculators in gold have now departed. Only the strong remain. The number of ounces which stands on first day notice is 1,051,300 or 32.69 tonnes.The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery for first day notice is represented by 155 contracts or 775,000.
Again, at the Comex, gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold lowers again to 1.571 million oz or 48.86 tonnes. The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly and now above the 8 million oz at 8.054 million oz or 250.5 tonnes of gold. However we must see gold leave as contracts are settled for the May and June delivery months.
The GLD reported no change in inventory in gold. The SLV inventory of silver also remained firm with no losses.
Today we have a good conversation between Stephen Leeb and Eric King of Kingworld news and they cover the drive by shooting of gold/silver on April 12 -15. Brien Lundin also covers the same topic.
We have a great commentary courtesy of the Wall Street Journal (author Roy) on the hopeless attempts by Indian authorities trying to rein in huge spending of gold by its citizens. How on earth are you going to break centuries of tradition?
I have repeated the excellent commentary on gold written by Alasdair Macleod.
We will go over these and other stories but first.....................
Here are the details:
The total gold comex open interest fell rose by 2110 contracts from 383,791 up to 385,901 with gold rising by $21.00 yesterday. Friday is first day notice for the gold and silver contract month of June. Late Thursday night, I notified you that we had 4571 contracts served upon our longs for 457,100 oz (14.21 tonnes). At 2:00 o'clock Friday afternoon we received the OI standing for June and it was a pretty decent amount standing equating to 10,513 contracts or 1,051,300 oz (32.7 tonnes). The next delivery month is the non active July contract and here the OI rose by 2 contracts. The next active delivery month for gold is August and here the OI rose by 16,659 contracts from 205,492 up to 221,946. This figure equates almost exactly to the loss from the June contract month of 16,937. Thus of the 16,937 loss in June ,16,659 rolled into August. The estimated volume today was fair at 157,070 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was good at 260,441 contracts.
The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. Its OI rose by 26 contracts to 145,999, with silver's rise in price of 27 cents Thursday. The CME reported to us late Thursday night that we had only 20 notices served upon our new outstanding longs for 100,000 oz. The OI for the non active front month of June now stands at 155 contracts and thus the initial reading for what will stand equates to 750,000. This number will surely rise. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI fell by only 133 contracts, from 75,004 down to 74,871. The estimated volume today was good, coming in at 44,991 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was great at 55,872.
Comex gold/May contract month:
May 31/2013
Initial standings for the June contract month:
Initial standings for the June contract month:
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
296.602 (Brinks, Scotia)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| nil |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
4571 (457,100 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
5942 (594,200 oz
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
4571 (457,100 oz)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
| |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 296.602 oz |
We had lousy activity at the gold vaults and mighty strange for a first day notice
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.
We had 0 customer deposit today:
total customer deposit: nil oz
We had 2 tiny customer withdrawals today:
i) out of Brinks 98.05 oz
ii) out of Scotia: 198.552 oz
total customer withdrawals: 296.602 oz
We had 2 major adjustments
i) Out of HSBC we had 24,372.278 oz leave the dealer and enter the customer at HSBC.
it is the second adjustment that concerns me:
ii) Out of JPMorgan we had another removal of 36,454.364 oz from the dealer at JPM and this entered the customer. There was no gold removed from the customer to pay for the 100,000 oz last Friday night where the CME indicated that the ISSUER of that contract was JPM and the stopper was being supplied through JPM's customer account. I am sorry but I have not seen this consummation of this transaction.
The JPMorgan customer vault rises at 346,844 oz or 10.78 tonnes. Equally disturbing is that JPMorgan's dealer account falls to 470,322 or dangerously low 14.62 tonnes. JPMorgan has not had an addition to gold from either their dealer account nor their customer account.
i) Out of HSBC we had 24,372.278 oz leave the dealer and enter the customer at HSBC.
it is the second adjustment that concerns me:
ii) Out of JPMorgan we had another removal of 36,454.364 oz from the dealer at JPM and this entered the customer. There was no gold removed from the customer to pay for the 100,000 oz last Friday night where the CME indicated that the ISSUER of that contract was JPM and the stopper was being supplied through JPM's customer account. I am sorry but I have not seen this consummation of this transaction.
The JPMorgan customer vault rises at 346,844 oz or 10.78 tonnes. Equally disturbing is that JPMorgan's dealer account falls to 470,322 or dangerously low 14.62 tonnes. JPMorgan has not had an addition to gold from either their dealer account nor their customer account.
Tonight the dealer inventory reduces again and stands tonight at a low of 1.571 million oz (48.86) tonnes of gold. The total of all gold slightly contracts, resting tonight at 8.054 million oz or 250.5 tonnes.
Today we had 4571 notices served upon our longs on first day notice for 457,100 oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in June, I take the OI standing for June (10,513) and subtract out today's notices (4571) which leaves us with 5942 contracts or 594,200 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Today we had 4571 notices served upon our longs on first day notice for 457,100 oz of gold. In order to calculate what I believe will stand for delivery in June, I take the OI standing for June (10,513) and subtract out today's notices (4571) which leaves us with 5942 contracts or 594,200 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in June:
4571 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 457,100 oz served upon + 5942 contracts or 594200 oz (left to be served upon) = 1,051,300 oz or 32.69 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely good showing for gold..
We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes. Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA per month. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents 167% of that total production.
end
Silver:
May 31.2013: May silver:
Initial standings for June silver
Initial standings for June silver
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 78,740.70 (CNT, Scotia) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 62,268.232 oz (Brinks, CNT, JPM) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 600,025.68( Brinks) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 20 (100,000) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 135 (675,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 20 (100,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 78,740.70 oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 62,268.232 oz |
Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 2 dealer withdrawals.
i) Out of the dealer Scotia: 10,187.50 oz
ii) Out of the dealer CNT: 68,593.20 oz
total dealer withdrawal: 78,740.70 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into brinks: 600,025.68 oz
total customer deposit; 600,025.68 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of the dealer Scotia: 10,187.50 oz
ii) Out of the dealer CNT: 68,593.20 oz
total dealer withdrawal: 78,740.70 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into brinks: 600,025.68 oz
total customer deposit; 600,025.68 oz
We had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) out of Brinks: 9838.16 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 28,201.57 oz
iii) out of JPM: 24,228.50
total customer withdrawal 62,268.232 oz
we had 0 adjustments today
Registered silver at : 42.728 million oz
total of all silver: 165.749 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 20 notices filed for 100,000 oz on first day notice.
In order to calculate what we believe will stand in the month of June, I take the Oi standing for June (155) and subtract out today's notices (20) which leaves us with 135 notices or 675,000
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of June is as follows:
20 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 100,000 oz + 135 contracts x 5000 oz = 675,000 oz left to be served upon = 775,000 oz
This number will surely rise in June.
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: inventory levels flat again...
May 31.2013:
May 30.2013:
May 29.2013:
In order to calculate what we believe will stand in the month of June, I take the Oi standing for June (155) and subtract out today's notices (20) which leaves us with 135 notices or 675,000
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of June is as follows:
20 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 100,000 oz + 135 contracts x 5000 oz = 675,000 oz left to be served upon = 775,000 oz
This number will surely rise in June.
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: inventory levels flat again...
May 31.2013:
Tonnes1,013.15
Ounces32,573,918.24
Value US$45.403 billion
May 30.2013:
Tonnes1,013.15
Ounces32,573,918.24
Value US$46.023 billion
May 29.2013:
Tonnes1,013.15
Ounces32,573,918.24
Value US$45.014 billion
* * *
selected news and views....
Gold and silver price suppression has gotten 'desperate,' Leeb tells King World News
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-05-31 03:34. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:33p ET Thursday, May 30, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The Western gold and silver price suppression scheme has become "desperate," fund manager Stephen Leeb tells King World News tonight.
Of the smash in the gold futures market in April, Leeb says, "Of course you don't sell 400 tons of paper gold for no reason, in an asinine fashion." He adds: "You don't watch your Comex inventories draw down. There are so many signs of desperation."
An excerpt from Leeb's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
I have already sent this Alasdair Macleod commentary to you this week, but it is well worth another read
(courtesy Dave Kransler/Alasdair Macleod/GATA)
(courtesy Dave Kransler/Alasdair Macleod/GATA)
FRIDAY, MAY 31, 2013
Must-Read Essay On Gold
This country has become so corrupt, it makes Mexico look like the Boy Scouts. The U.S. has become the most corrupt country in the world. - "Don" in Denver - May 31, 2013I wanted to post this essay by Alasdair Macleod. After over 12 years of researching, trading and investing in the precious metals sector, there are only a few writers to whom I pay credence. Macleod is one of them. He references the Shanhai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Most of you probably have not heard of it. I first read about it in Bill Buckler's "Privateer" about 5 years ago. Led by Russia and China, it's comprised largely of eastern hemisphere countries. I view it as the eastern "blocs" counterpart to NATO and IMF rolled into one organization. The countries all have one thing in common: they are aggressively accumulating physical gold and they are systematically working towards eliminating the use of the U.S. dollar in trade. This is a must-read essay by Macleod:
The Geopolitics of Gold LINK
Western central banks have got themselves horribly wrong-footed as a result of not adjusting their anti-gold policies to allow for the realities of Asian gold demand. Though their dealings are shrouded in secrecy, there is compelling evidence that much – if not most – of Western central bank gold has been quietly sold over the last three decades.
More recently all members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a common security and trading bloc led by Russia and China and incorporating the bulk of Asia’s land mass, have been accumulating gold. Between current SCO and future members (India, Iran, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Belarus and Sri Lanka), with their citizens numbering over 3 billion people, they have together cornered the global market for physical supply, without even taking account of demand from the rest of South East Asia’s gold-hungry population.
The result is that gold markets are now failing to clear. The outcome is a choice: the West will either have to stop intervening and allow gold to find a level where physical and derivative markets interact properly with each other, or capital markets in the West will face a growing crisis likely to spill over into other markets. While these outcomes were always going to be a choice to be made at some time in the future, the disconnection between physical gold and derivatives has become so great that it is now an immediate concern.
At the government level it is a geopolitical clash of the titans. Russia and China are almost certainly aware of the lack of gold in Western central bank vaults: they are fully capable of thorough due-diligence in this respect. They have so far been careful not to disrupt capital markets because it has not been in their interests to do so; however, the current hiatus in gold markets is almost certain to modify their view.
Fundamental to all this is their attitude to Western currencies: the yen is now collapsing, the euro area is in deep trouble and the US economy is at very best stagnating. Until now, payment for Russian energy and Chinese goods in foreign currencies has been welcomed, because it has allowed the Russian and Chinese elites and middle classes to accumulate wealth. This balance of interests can only be maintained for so long as Russian and Chinese governments and their citizens can hedge foreign currency risks through an offsetting accumulation of foreign-owned gold.
This is no longer the case, because to all intents and purposes western capital markets are cleaned out of physical supplies, and the ability of the Western central banks to supress gold prices appears to be ending. And with the West’s financial system no longer able to deliver their most prized commodity, hitherto passive attitudes in Asia to Western currencies are likely to be reassessed.
The gold question has become central to east-west trade. The sensible approach for Western central banks is to defuse the problems arising by taking positive steps to ensure that gold markets operate properly. This is conceptually difficult, because the most likely result, a higher gold price, would risk undermining confidence in the major currencies and most probably damage the bullion banks in London.
Despite these difficulties, realities have to be faced.
and...........
Looking at Turd and Bo's work together , a good argument can be made that support for gold seems fairly strong at 1350 ( which exception for the interday spike down to 1321 - recall gold closed at 1352 on April 15th ) , which certainly doesn't remove from the realm of a very real possibility we see another run at the PMs this coming week leading to another smashdown attempt next Friday with Non - Farm job data and the Unemployment data for May .
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4750/speechless-turd
Speechless Turd
We knew that this week's CoT was going to be interesting but I didn't expect it to leave me speechless.
Look, I know I've been banging this drum for months and all the metals have done is go down. Got it. I read you loud and clear. But we're talking big picture, positioning stuff here. I am 100% firm in my belief that QE∞ caught the bullion banks with their pants down. All of the price action since 9/13/12 has been designed to alleviate the gigantic financial risk and potential liability of being short paper metal. By smashing price, against the fundamentals, from $1800 to $1350 and from $35 to $22, The Cartel Banks have accomplished two things:
- They've been able to transfer the vast majority of their potential liability from themselves to the speculator sector (hedge funds, managed money, small investors).
- And now, instead of being trapped short, they are a in position to profit from the inevitable explosion in price.
Even though it's blatantly criminal, you almost have to give them credit. That they've been able to pull this off in broad daylight is simply astounding. On the level of Oceans 11.
Once again and with meaning: On 9/11/12, two days before the announcement of QE∞ and with gold already at $1800, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 Comex contracts. That's 23,709,100 paper troy ounces or about 737 metric tonnes of gold. As of last Tuesday, they are now net short just 59,221 contracts or about 184 metric tonnes. A reduction of just over 75%! Oh, and did I mention that, over the same time period, the GLD has been raided for 277 metric tonnes? Just thought I'd throw that in, too. Simply magnificent! The Crime of The Century! Ah, screw that. That's The Crime of The 20th Century, too!! Amazing.
So, here are your numbers. Keep in mind that, for the reporting week, gold was up $1.30 while total open interest fell ahead of June13 expiration by 35,086 contracts. Also keep on mind that for Wednesday and Thursday of this week, total OI fell another 25,110 contracts. One can only imagine how much more long-term bullish these levels are as of this weekend.
GOLD
For the week, the Large Specs dumped 16,836 longs and added 6,544 new shorts (quite a few of which got squeezed yesterday and put back on today). This brings the Large Spec net long total down to just 56,879 contracts. Do you think that's a lot? Hmmm. What if I told you that, back on 9/11/12, the Large Specs were net long 182,016? From a different perspective, back on 9/11/12, the Large Spec net long ratio was 6.62:1. As of last Tuesday, it was down to1.49:1. And here's a little more perspective for you: At the price lows on 12/27/2011, the Large Specs were net long 130,788 with a ratio of 4.57:1 and at the price lows of last August they were net long 114,304 with a ratio of 3.43:1. Again, as of last Tuesday, the Large Specs were net long just 56,879 contracts and had a net long ratio of 1.49:1.
The Small Specs also reduced their net long position by a little over 1500 contracts and they are now net long just 2,342 total contracts. Again, by contrast, back on 9/11/12 the Small Specs were net long 55,075. That's a reduction of nearly 96%!
And The Gold Cartel. What did they accomplish this week? Not much...No, they just reduced their net short exposure by nearly 25,000 contracts! Again and as stated above, The Gold Cartel is now net short just 59,221 contracts or 184 metric tonnes of paper gold. Back on 9/11/12, they were net short 237,091 contracts or 737 metric tonnes of paper gold. The new Cartel net short ratio is just 1.34:1. This means that they are now long 3 contracts for every four that they are short. Incredible!
Once again for perspective, at the most recent price bottoms near $1525 in Dec of 2011 and August of 2012, The Gold Cartel was still net short 163,932 and 143,940, respectively. Their net short ratios on those occasions were 2.01:1 and 1.98:1. Again, as of last Tuesday, the numbers are 59,221 and 1.34:1.
SILVER
While interesting, the silver CoT isn't nearly as wild as gold. It's still crazy, though, as you'll see. For the reporting week, silver was down about 25¢ and its OI fell by about 3,300.
The Silver Large Specs dumped another 1,474 contracts this week while adding another 2,750 longs. That net long reduction leaves them net long just a little over 4,500 contracts and drops their net long ratio down to an almost inconceivable 1.16:1. Again, consider these levels and dates for perspective:
- On 9/11/12, they were net long 31,482 contracts and had a net long ratio of 4.18:1.
- At the 12/27/11 price bottom, they were net long 6,855 with a ratio of 1.40:1
- At the 8/14/12 price bottom, they were net long 15,407 with a ratio of 1.93:1.
The Small Specs in silver had little change and are of little consequence right now.
The silver commercials continue to astound. Though the everybody-but-JPM crowd sold 1,326 longs last week, they're still gross long an amazing 66,428 contracts. All of this commercial and spec selling allowed JPM and The Forces of Darkness to cover 4,918 shorts, leaving them gross short just 74,762. This commercial net short reduction of nearly 3,600 contracts leaves them net short just 8,334contracts and an incredibly, nearly-impossibly low net short ratio of just 1.13:1. Again, for perspective:
- Caught with their pants down on 9/11/12, The Forces of Evil were net short 47,272 contracts or 236,360,00 troy ounces of paper silver or about 7,350 metric tonnes. They also had a net short ratio of 2.47:1.
- As of last Tuesday, The Evil Ones were net short 8,334 contracts or 41,670,000 ounces. That's 1,297 metric tonnes or a reduction of over 83%!
- At the $26 price low of 12/27/11, they were net short 14,312 contracts with a net short ratio of 1.34:1
- And at the price low of 8/14/12, they were net short 23,402 with a ratio of 1.49:1
- Again, as of last Tuesday, they are net short just 8,334 contracts with a ratio of 1.13:1
Look, I could probably keep typing for hours about the significance of all of this but I think I'll stop here. All you need to know is this: The Bullion Banks have now reduced their net liability in gold by over 75% and, in silver, by over 83%...all since the game-changing announcement of QE∞ last September. Rather than once again trying to cover into rising prices with disastrous results (see April of 2011 in silver and August of 2011 in gold), an evil, insidious and outright criminal plan was made and executed to crush the paper price of both metals. By flawlessly executing this plan, The Bullion Banks have so reduced their potential liability that there can be no doubt that prices will soon be allowed to rise again. When? That's impossible to say, of course. Maybe not until The BBs are net long both gold and silver. Who's to say for certain? But I do know that we are very, very close to a price bottom here when you take this CoT situation and the physical market demand into consideration. Plain and simple.
Finally, we'll have to see how things go once trading resumes Sunday evening. The action today certainly brings my Wednesday post back into play...the one where I speculated that one more washout could come before "a surprisingly disappointing NFP number" on Friday. I guessed that another test of $1350 was possible with a stop-running drop in silver to $21.50 or even a double bottom at $21. Again, given today's action and the $10 or so taken out of gold on the Globex this afternoon, that scenario certainly seems possible, if not likely. Here are two charts that I printed this morning, before this afternoon's decline.
So, anyway, keep the faith. Next week promises to be volatile but fun nonetheless. Enjoy your weekend and try to relax a little. Then come back on Monday with your game face on.
TF
and.......
http://silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-gold-has-bottomed-at-1321-to-rise-into-june-5th-turn-date/#more-27310
This week the focus has been on Japan, where “Abenomics” is beginning to bite in ways unexpected by the Japanese authorities. Confidence in both bond and equity markets was destabilised, as investors digested the implications of monetary policy out of control. There is a portent here: there comes a point where a central bank loses control of markets, perhaps an event coming to a central bank near you soon.
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