Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Harvey Organ's Gold and Silver Report - May 29 , 2013..... Data , News and Views !

Chart forDAX (^GDAXI)


Wondering what happens if N225 falls apart ? Look at the chart for April's volatility , note the outlier index and then consider the possibilities ......




http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/05/gold-and-silver-risegld-inventory.html


Wednesday, May 29, 2013


Gold and silver rise/GLD inventory finally rise by .9 tonnes/BIS warns central banks on the shadow banking industry/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up $11.00 to $1390.10 (comex closing time).  Silver rose by 22 cents to $22.40  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :

gold: 1392.70
silver:  $22.46



At the Comex, the open interest in silver fell by 933 contracts to 145,299 contracts with silver's fall in price on Tuesday by 40 cents.  The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The OI for the upcoming June gold contract still remains quite elevated at 75,576 with one day of trading left to go before first day notice on Friday. The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts fell  by 24,105 contracts to 411,001. The gold deliveries for May rose a touch today remaining at  9.486 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May lowered to 17.130 million oz. ( On first day notice:  14.860 million oz.)


Again, at the Comex,  gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold remains at 1.641 million oz or 51.04 tonnes.  The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly and now above the 8 million oz at 8.043 million oz or 250.17 tonnes of gold. However we must see gold leave as contracts are settled for the May and June delivery months.

The GLD  reported a slight gain in gold inventory of .9 tonnes. The SLV inventory of silver remained constant. 

Today we have 1 great commentary from Bill Holter as he tackles who on earth will purchase all the bonds owned by the Fed.  You do not want to miss this one. 

Also today, we have great commentaries from Gene Arensberg, Steve D'Angelo  and 2 great interviews with Eric King featuring Dan Norcini and John Embry. 

On the paper side of things we have stories on the Bank of England courtesy of Philip Aldrick of the UKTelegraph, Mark Grant, Forbes magazine on the plight of Bankia, and Wolf Richter of www.testosteronepit.com who talks about another bubble forming in the USA housing sector


We will go over these and other stories but first.....................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:


The total gold comex open interest fell big time by 24,105 contracts  from  435,106 down to 411,001 with gold falling by $7.70  yesterday. I guess some of the paper players are giving up playing in the rigged Comex casino as they refuse to roll despite the low cost in transferring to the next big delivery month of August.  The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI fall by 998 contracts down to 43.  However we had 1000 delivery notice filed yesterday.  Thus we gained 2  gold contracts  in May or an additional  200 oz will  stand for the May delivery month.   The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 50,158 contracts to 75,526 as those who did not give up, rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calendar and first day notice is this Friday .  The estimated volume today was  good at 293,524 contracts.    The confirmed volume on Tuesday was extremely  good at 441,145 contracts.



The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. Its OI fell  by only 933  contracts to 145,299,  with  silver's fall in price of 40 cents yesterday.  The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 17 contracts down to 82.  We had only 1 delivery notice filed yesterday so we  lost 16 contracts or 80,000 oz silver ounces standing in the May delivery month.  The next  delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 67 contracts to stand at 242. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI rose  by 122 contracts to rest tonight at 75,576.   The estimated volume today was poor, coming in at 26,099 contracts.  The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent  at  57,667.


Comex gold/May contract month:


May 29/2013




Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 14,143.915 (HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
1000.02 (Brinks)
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
nil oz (0)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 1000 (100,000  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
35 (3500)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3042  (304,200  oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
10,656.61
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
746,445.66 oz  



We had fair activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 1 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.

i) Dealer Brinks received 1 gold brick containing 1000.02 oz



We had 0 customer deposits today:



total customer deposit: nil oz


We had 1 customer withdrawal today:

i) out of HSBC:  14,143.915 oz


total customer withdrawals:  14,143.915  oz
We had 0   adjustments 



The JPMorgan customer vault remains at  310,390.402 oz or 9.65 tonnes. Strangely the CME notified us on Friday that 1000 contracts or 100,000 oz was issued from the JPMorgan's customer vaults.  This figure has not yet been  subtracted from any JPMorgan account, customer or dealer.


Tonight the dealer inventory reduces again and stands tonight at a low of 1.642 million oz (51.04) tonnes of gold. The total of all gold slightly rises, resting tonight at 8.043 million oz or 250.17 tonnes.

Today we had 35 notices served upon our longs for 3500 oz of gold.

To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May  (43) and subtract today's notices (35) which leaves us with 8 notices or 800 oz left to be served upon our longs. 

Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:

3042 contracts x 100 oz per contract  or  304,200 oz (served)  +  8 notices or 800 oz (to be served upon)  =  305,000  oz or 9.486 tonnes of gold.

We gained 200 oz of gold standing for the May delivery month.


This is extremely high for a non active month. 

 We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes.  Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents  49.5% of that total production.


end






Silver:



May 29.2013:  May silver: 

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory627,635.49 (CNT, Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 1,238,154.45 oz (Brinks,JPM,Scotia)  
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 512,147.06( CNT,Delaware)
No of oz served (contracts)14 (70,000)
No of oz to be served (notices)68  (340,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3358  (16,790,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month1,530,909.0 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month6,153,329.3  oz


Today, we  had huge activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 2  dealer withdrawals.


i) Out of the dealer CNT:  622,358.42   oz
ii) Out of the dealer Scotia:  5277.07  oz

total dealer withdrawal:  627,635.49 oz


We had 2 customer deposits:


i) Into CNT:  49,102.36 oz
ii) Into Delaware:  2044.70 OZ



total customer deposit; 51,147.06  oz


We had 3 customer withdrawals:


i) Out of Brinks: 15,317.29 oz
ii) Out of JPM:  622,282.10 oz
iii Out of Scotia:  600,555.06 oz




total customer withdrawal    1,238,154.45  oz 

  
we had 1   adjustment  today

i. Out of the JPM vault:  10,431.30 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and back into the customer account at JPM


Registered silver  at :  42.847 million oz
total of all silver:  164.909 million oz.




The CME reported that we had 14 notices filed for 70,000 oz. We have a total of 3,358 notices filed so far this month for 16,790,000 oz.  To calculate the number of ounces that will stand in silver, I take the OI standing for May (82) and subtract out today's notices (14) which leaves us with 68 notices or 340,000 oz left to be served upon our longs. 
  
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this  active delivery month of May is as follows:

3358 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 16,790,000 +  8 contracts x 5000 oz =  340,000 oz ( to be served)  =  17,130,000 oz.

We lost 16 contracts or 80,000 oz of silver standing today. The total standing for silver is still superb for May.

The total amount standing for May in silver represents 50.9% of ANNUAL silver production from the USA  (the USA produces around 33.6 million oz per year.)


Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: almost a ton added today to the GLD ETF .....


May 29.2013:



Tonnes1,013.15

Ounces32,573,918.24

Value US$45.014  billion





May 28.2013:



Tonnes1,012.25

Ounces32,544,916.00

Value US$44.779  billion





*   *   * 

selected news and views.....



On Saturday we introduced to you a big story where the EU was planning to outlaw the shadow banking industry   (rehypothecation of assets).  We then introduced the story where employees of the Hong Kong Mercantile bank were arrested with phony certificates of letters of credit drawn on the HSBC and Standard Chartered.  The total phony certificates totaled 1/2 billion USA.
Bill Holter put the two stories together and came to the conclusion that the amount of phony collateral in this case may be so huge so as to cause the EU into action to outlaw rehypothecation.

And now we come to today.  This time it is the central bank's central bank, the BIS which is now warning banks on the misuse of these instruments.




(courtesy zero hedge)








Central Banks' Central Bank Warns About Rehypothecation Threats

Tyler Durden's picture



Just a few years ago, central bankers dared not breathe the word rehypotehcation - after all it was the secret fabric that held the shadow banking system together, which was a critical hub to perpetuating the central bankers' plan of reflating assets and creating a wealth effect if only for the 1%, while keeping the rest content with free Obamaphones and endless promises of "trickling down" which four years into Bernanke's grand monetary experiment has yet to materialize. Then, little by little, more and more started to realize that the shadow banking system, whose fiath-based (sic) liabilities amount to somewhere between $60 and $100 trillion (of credit money) globally, is precisely the inflation buffer that has allowed central banks to engage in round after round of QE, which has sent global stocks to all time highs, while keeping the world mired in the longest economic depression since the 1930s (explained here).
Of course, the one inadvertent side effect of all this constant meddling which be definition requires the monetization of quality collateral in order to generate new fungible money, was the gradual disappearance of all such quality assets which private investors could buy, then pledge back via repo and other conduits and use proceeds for risky investments. Such as Treasurys. Which is why recently none other than the TBAC warned that the US is suddenly facing a $10+ trillion high quality collateral shortage in the next decade. As we have also explained, this is a major problem for the Fed which at current rates of QEeing, will monetize all Treasury duration exposure in roughly 5 years - at that point there will be virtually no collateral left and the Fed will be finally out of both tools and ammo. Which in turn is why the Fed is desperate to restore the "moneyness" of assorted private sector assets in the time it still has with QE, and convert them to "high quality collateral" status, or eligible for repo and money creation via conventional bank conduits.
Indeed, the TBAC admitted as much in the confidential appendix to its Q2 slide presentation to the US Treasury when it said:
Private sector generation of moneylike collateral helps policymakers over long periods by:
  • Slowly reducing the demand for money
  • Increasing financial deepening
  • Supporting financial globalization
The more restricted the private sector’s ability to create safe, liquid, and moneylike collateral, the harder the public sector must work to supply it through deficits and easy monetary policy.
We will have more to say on this in a future post when we discuss just what the real catalysts for the Fed's unwind are (hint: nothing to do with the market, and nothing to do with inflation or unemployment) and what Ben Bernanke is seeking to accomplish. It is a fascinating topic, and one which we are confident means Bernanke's replacement will be none other than... Bernanke.
But before we go there, a key thing to ponder is that in all activities involving shadow banking, and now that quality collateral, in its definition of being "accepted by all", is scarcer than ever, involve the rehypothecation of certain assets using collateral chains of assorted lengths, which in turn dilute the links of title and ownership between owner and owned, in some cases (like MF Global and Lehman) to infinity, in effect confiscating an asset and plunging it into the bottomless abyss of the shadow banking system.
Furthermore, as we reported recently, none other than Europehas started a crack down on rehypothecation. We are confident that once Deutsche Bank et al realize that this may in fact be serious - a development which would, if completed, collapse their ability to operate on shadow margin and extend their asset base, they will promptly put an end to the silliness.
However, the good news is that with every incremental public instance of the rehypothecation discussion, more are focusing their attention on just how it is that true credit money creation works in the modern world (hint: nothing at all like how the textbook monetarists, Magic Money Tree growers, and all those others who still rely on economic concepts developed in the 1980s and before think).
The most recent, and perhaps most notable, observation on the topics of asset encumbrance, collateral and rehypothecation was none other than the BIS with its just released report titled appropriately enough, "Asset encumbrance, financial reform and the demand for collateral assets." In this report, variants of the word "rehypothecate" appear no less than 24 times. More importantly, the whole point of the paper is to serve as a warning, which means that slowly but surely the world's bankers are finally willing to expose in broad daylight (ironically), the true risks permeating the real financial system located deep in the shadows, where maturity, risk and collateral transformation all take place, however without the nuisance of deposits. Whether this is so they can abuse it all over again (most likely) or out of actual altruistic (unlikely) motivates, is unclear.
However, for those still confused by what remains a very nebulous topic for most, here is what the BIS has to say on the key topic of rehypothecation and its assorted instances in modern finance.
Rehypothecation and reuse of collateral assets

Rehypothecation refers to the right of financial intermediaries to sell, pledge, invest or perform transactions with client assets they hold; and it allows prime brokers and other financial intermediaries to obtain funding using their client collateral. Collateral reuse, in turn, usually covers a broader context where securities delivered in one transaction are used to collateralise another transaction, including the ability to reuse collateral through change in (temporary) ownership. Yet the terms rehypothecation and reuse of securities are often used interchangeably; they do not have distinct legal interpretations.

Certain types of collateral rehypothecation (and reuse) can play an important role in financial market functioning, increasing collateral velocity and potentially reducing transaction and liquidity costs. Rehypothecation decreases the (net) demand for collateral and the funding liquidity requirements of traders, since a given pool of collateral assets can be reused to support more than one transaction. This lowers the cost of trading, which is beneficial for market liquidity.

Securities lending-type transactions (including collateral swaps), which have been structured as collateralised loans, would not exist without rehypothecation. In the repo market, participants would not be able to cover short positions without the ability to reuse collateral. However, repos do not directly rehypothecate collateral because they are structured as a sale and repurchase transaction.

While certain types of rehypothecation can be beneficial to market functioning, if collateral collected to protect against the risk of counterparty default has been rehypothecated, then it may not be readily available in the event of a default. This, in turn, may increase system interconnectedness and procyclicality, and could amplify market stresses. Therefore, when collateral is rehypothecated, it is important to understand under what circumstances and the extent to which the rehypothecation has occurred; or in other words, how long the collateral chain is.
And some of the more vocal warnings:
A particular aspect that has received considerable scrutiny in the policy debate on securities financing markets is the extent to which rehypothecation activities should be permitted. The recent crisis experience suggests that greater reliance on rehypothecation in financial intermediaries’ balance sheets will increase interconnectedness and make them more vulnerable to financial shocks.Rehypothecation of client assets can also delay the recovery of assets or even impose losses on beneficial owners. In addition, it can prompt intermediaries to build up leverage in good times, contributing to increased procyclicality of the financial system.
But most importantly:
Financial intermediaries should provide sufficient disclosure to clients when collateral assets posted by them are rehypothecated; rehypothecation should be allowed only for the purpose of financing the long position of clients and not for financing the own-account activities of the intermediary; and only entities subject to adequate regulation of liquidity risk should be allowed to engage in the rehypothecation of client assets.
Ironically, using rehypothecation for the purposes of financing the own-account activities of the intermediary, is precisely what happens every single day in every single, and certainly TBTF large (see JPM) bank.
Could it be that some of the forces behind the bank of central banks are starting to realize just how close to the precipice the world truly is and are now actively cautioning their private sector peers to step back from the ledge or everyone gets it?
If so, and here is a chance this is true, we expect to see one of the most epic public-private sector conflicts in financial history, because in a world rapidly devoid of collateral and quality assets against which to margin and build leveraged operations, without rehypothecation the ability to generate mindnumbing bonuses for the banker superclass becomes null and void.
And after all, preserving the cash flow associated with levering every possible asset as many times as inhumanly possible and wagering it, preferably with zero risk, in a coopted and manipulated market, is what it is all about...
Gene Arensberg does a good job dissecting the COT report released last Friday. He basically states that the Hedge funds are massively short gold right now and the set up is extremely powerful for a huge rally in gold


(courtesy Gene Arensberg/Got GoldReport/GATA)



Gene Arensberg: Huge rally fuel in place for gold futures

 Section: 
5:31p PT Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
At the Got Gold Report, Gene Arensberg sees a huge imbalance in positions in the gold futures market, with the biggest traders just about longer than ever and hedge funds and speculators just about shorter than ever. "High-octane rally fuel" is in place, Arensberg writes. His commentary is headlined "Huge Rally Fuel in Place for Gold Futures" and it's posted at the Got Gold Report here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc


end





Another story confirming the Arensberg account that the hedge funds are massively short on gold and silver:

(courtesy Dan Norcini/Kingworldnews)

Hedge funds going short gold and silver, Norcini tells King World News

 Section: 
9:22p PT Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Futures market analyst Dan Norcini tells King World News that hedge funds are going short both gold and silver. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




end


A super conversation with John Embry and Eric King on the disparity between physical gold and paper gold.  He also discusses how manufacturing is now moving out of China into Burma. China's labour costs are $400.00 per month.  Burma  (Mynamar) is $100.00 per month.

you do not want to miss this

(courtesy John Embry/Kingworldnews/GATA)



Embry on transfer of monetary metals and manufacturing to Asia

 Section: 
10:30a PT Wednesday, May 29, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed today by King World News, Sprott Asset Management's John Embry discusses the transfer of gold and silver from West to East, the misleading spin of economic data, and the movement of manufacturing out of the United States and now even China. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



A discussion on the huge demand for gold and silver maple leafs

(courtesy Steve D'Angelo

SRSrocco report)

Gold & Silver Maple Leaf Sales Increase in a Big Way

Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report
  |
Wednesday, May 29th
According to the Royal Canadian Mint's newest quarterly report just released, Gold and Silver Maple Leaf sales increased substantially Q1, 2013. During the first quarter of 2013, Silver Maple Leaf sales were up 65% at 6.6 million ounces compared to 4 million ounces during the same period last year.
The Royal Canadian Mint had a total of 18.1 million Silver Maple Leaf sales in 2012. If the current sales trend continues, there will be an estimated 23 million Silver Maple Leaf sales for 2013 -- 27% higher than 2012.
Even though first quarter 2013 Silver Maple leaf sales were impressive, the increase of Gold Maple leaf sales were even higher. In the chart below we can see that Gold Maple leaf sales Q1, 2013 were nearly double compared to the same period last year:
Here we can see that Gold Maple Leaf sales increased 96% to 269,000 ounces during Q1, 2013 compared to 137,000 ounces last year. Furthermore, sales of Gold Maple Leafs are estimated to grow to approximately 1+ million oz in 2013, up from 883,048 oz in 2012.
Silver Eagle & Maple Leaf Sales Continue to Surpass Domestic Silver Production
As I mentioned in a prior article Silver Eagle & Maple Leaf Sales Up As Supply Slips, U.S. Silver Eagle & Canadian Maple sales are still outpacing domestic mine production. Total sales of Silver Eagles & Maples during Q1 2013 were 20.8 million oz while domestic mine supply from these two countries only stood at 14.3 million oz.
If we look at the chart below, estimated 2013 Silver Eagle & Maple Leaf sales (based on present trends) may reach a new record of 65 million oz and are forecasted to surpass total U.S. & Canadian domestic mine production supply of 57 million oz by 8 million oz. Thus, both the United States and Canada have to continue to import silver to help meet the demand of their official coin sales.
This forecast is based on a total of 42 million Silver Eagle and 23 million Silver Maple Leaf sales for 2013. While the Royal Canadian Mint only updates their sales figures quarterly (2 month lag), the U.S. Mint just released their total Silver Eagle sales on May 28, 2013 at 21.7 million oz. If we consider that the sales of Eagles and Maples picked up significantly during April & May, due to the recent silver price take-down, the estimated coin sales for 2013 above may turn out to be conservative.
It will be interesting to see what kind of demand these coins will generate for the remainder of the year.
You can find updates to these figures at the SRSrocco Report.


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4746/hammer-time



Hammer Time

Just because I've always wanted to post this.
But before we get to "Hammer Time", a couple of other items first.
Two weeks ago, we characterized the April NFP #s as the gift that keeps on giving, just like The Jelly of The Month Club. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4713/it-edward More evidence of that has appeared over the past few days as the 10-year note has completely fallen out of bed.
Once again, this move in rates can be traced to the BLSBS report of Friday, May 3. Since then, the note has fallen four points and now rests near support at 130, which corresponds to a rate of about 2.15%. This level may hold but I suspect that it will not. More likely is a drop to what appears to be critical support near 127-128.
But here's the deal. There is no way, no how that The Fed is going to allow support to fail, thereby letting 10-year rates back up to 3%+. Not happening. Besides the detrimental impact higher rates would have on the U.S. budget deficit and debt, higher rates would also crush any nascent economic recovery.
Already we are seeing things slow down in the U.S. (Even that statement is nonsense because "slow down" implies that previously things had been really cooking.) Check this headline from ZH just this morning. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-29/cash-and-tarry-mortgage-applications-plunge-fastest-rate-2009 And, as discussed last week, if the economy was booming and housing growth was robust, demand for inputs such as lumber would be soaring and soaring demand would lead to higher prices. Right? Right?? Apparently not. Here's an updated chart of the cost of lumber.
So here's what's likely to happen in the weeks ahead:
  • The 10-year note may fall a bit farther but then it will bounce and begin to rebound
  • Signs that the U.S. economy is weakening will get more mainstream press coverage
  • This will likely begin with a May NFP next Friday that comes in "weaker than expected"
  • A continuation or even increase of QE will shove stocks even higher
  • Gold and silver will finally stabilize and begin trending higher, the start of a summer rally
But first, Hammer Time. Now don't get all freaked out. I'm not talking about another big drop. However, recognizing that all of this silly "tapering" talk will soon be a thing of the past, the metals will likely be shaken out one last time over the next week or so. How much? I would not be at all surprised to see gold trade down toward $1350 again and perhaps bounce off of there a couple of times. Silver could see at least a drop to $21.50 if not a double bottom near $21.
The most interesting thing about the two charts below is the contrast. Gold and silver almost always trade in tandem, tracing out nearly identical chart patterns. But look below. Gold is in an "ascending triangle" while silver is in a "descending" one. Isn't that odd? Looking at these, I'm guessing that the bottom will soon drop out for silver and we'll get the drop toward $21.50, and maybe $21, that I mentioned above. Hammer time.
So, anyway, we'll see. The nice thing for me about predicting a drop in price is that, when I'm wrong, no one is pissed off. Maybe I should do this more often?
One last thing, someone mentioned yesterday something about the CAD and how it's down since QE∞ began. I read that and thought, "you know, that IS pretty funny". So here it is, in all it's glory. If ever there was a chart that showed you how utterly FUBAR the current markets have become, it's this one. Since the time that The U.S. Fed embarked on a printing regime where they are actively creating from whole cloth $85B/month in new greenback, The Canadian Dollar (which is not being actively devalued) is down over 7%! HOLY REALITY DISCONNECT, BATMAN! I know that I shouldn't be laughing. I have a lot of Canadian readers and I should have some sympathy but this is just incredible.
OK, that's all for now. Have a great day!
TF


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