Thursday, May 30, 2013

Harvey Organ Gold and Silver Report - May 30 , 2013 ... Data , News and Views.....


http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4749/total-gold-open-interest-record-low



Total Gold Open Interest at Record Low?

Thursday, May 30, 2013 at 7:35 pm
This is so astonishing that I had to start a new thread.
I'll just give you the facts and I'll let you decide what it all means.
  • We are approaching contract expiration and First Notice Day of the June13 contract. This is coming up tomorrow. At the close tomorrow, all holders of the June13 must show their intent for delivery by having 100% margin in their accounts.
  • For the three days since Friday of last week, total Comex gold open interest has fallen by 10,000, 24,000 and 27,000 respectively for a total drop of 61,726, from 445,517 to last night's 383,791. That's a drop of 13.7%. In three days.
  • For perspective, total OI bottomed out 1 day after the April13 FND at 407,112
  • Total OI bottomed out 1 week after Feb13 FND at 420,766
  • Total OI bottomed out 1 week after Dec12 FND at 427,200
  • Again, with two days to go before June13 FND, total OI is just 383,791.
  • Additionally, I've been trying to guesstimate how many might initially stand for delivery in June. Recall that 13,100 stood on FND for Feb but just 6,601 initially stood for April. The April number eventually doubled to 13,000 as folks "jumped the queue" during April.
  • Back in March, 2 days before Apr13 FND, the Apr13 OI was still 33,774 of a total OI at 419,722 or 8.04%
  • Back in January, 2 days before Feb13 FND, the Feb13 OI was 82,128 of a total OI at 438,918 or 18.71%
  • As of yesterday, 2 days before Jun13 FND, the Jun13 was 27,450 of a total OI at 383,791 or 7.15% so it looks like, at least initially, that June will be more like April than February.
  • Tomorrow, we'll get the final OI numbers for today. Since Wednesday saw gold rally $12 on a 27,000 OI drop (short-covering), what happened today during the $20 rise? Was it longs re-entering as projected on the previous thread or was it even more short-covering? If it was more short-covering, just how low is the total Comex OI right now, right this instant? 360,000? 350,000??
Finally, why does this even matter to you? I'll tell you: Because at 383,791, the total Comex open interest is at historically low levels, the lowest I've ever seen. The records I have don't go back far enough to show anything lower.This is, at a minimum, a multi-year low. Perhaps multi-decade. Maybe someone can email Gene Arensberg? He might know when the total OI was last this low.
But the only time I've ever seen a similar total OI was on 8/17/12 at 385,434. Why is that important? That night gold closed at $1615 and then set off the next day on a four-week trek that took it to nearly $1800. Are we on the edge of a similar rally? Hard to say. Back in August last year, the CoT structure was almost completely different as long interest had been completely wrung out during the awful beatdown of March-August. Now we sit instead with historic levels of Spec shorts...or at least we did when the last CoT survey was taken nine days ago. 
So, anyway, I'm no sure what it all means which is why I wanted to simply present the data to you. Is the Comex finally dying the death I've been anticipating since the MFG collapse of 18 months ago? Maybe. Did the desperate criminal beatdown of 4/12-15 begin driving the final nail into the coffin? Perhaps.
Anyway, have at it. I look forward to reading your feedback.
TF




http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/05/gold-and-silver-risegold-inside-gld.html


Thursday, May 30, 2013


Gold and silver rise/Gold inside GLD rises/Silver inventory drops/Tomorrow first day notice for June gold/May gold finishes with 9.486 tonnes standing/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up $20.90 to $1411.0 (comex closing time).  Silver rose by 27 cents to $22.67  (comex closing time)

In the access market at 5:00 pm, gold and silver finished trading at the following prices :

gold: 1414.10
silver:  $22.76



At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 674 contracts to 145,973 contracts with silver's rise in price on Wednesday by 22 cents.  The silver OI is  holding firm at elevated levels . The OI for the upcoming June gold contract still remains quite elevated at 27,450 with one day of trading figures left to  be revealed before first day notice tomorrow. Remember that OI figures are always 1 day back. The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts fell  by 27,210 contracts to 383,741 which is extremely low considering we still have one more reporting day and then on top of this we have deliveries which must be subtracted from OI.There is no question that all of the speculators in gold have now departed.  Only the strong remain. The gold deliveries for May remained constant at  9.486 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May lowered to 17.080 million oz. ( On first day notice:  14.860 million oz.)


Again, at the Comex,  gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold remains at 1.632 million oz or 50.76 tonnes.  The total of all gold at the comex rose slightly and now above the 8 million oz at 8.055 million oz or 250.6 tonnes of gold. However we must see gold leave as contracts are settled for the May and June delivery months.

The GLD  reported no change in inventory in gold. The SLV inventory of silver lost 966,000. 

Today we have 1 great commentary from Bill Holter as he tackles the shadow banking industry and the shrinking/faulty collateral attached to it. 

Also today we have a great commentary on the shoddy solar panels coming from China.  It will be the next shoe to drop.


We will go over these and other stories but first.....................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.
Here are the details:


The total gold comex open interest fell again big time by 27,210 contracts from 411,001 contracts down to 383,791 with gold rising by $11.00  yesterday. I guess some of the paper players are giving up playing in the rigged Comex casino as they refuse to roll despite the low cost in transferring to the next big delivery month of August. We are also no doubt witnessing short covering from our bankers.  The front non active delivery month of May is now off the board.  The total number of notices filed for the month of May is represented by 3050 contracts and thus 305,000 ounces of gold officially stood for delivery in May .   The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 48,076 contracts to 27,450 as those who did not give up, rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calendar and first day notice is tomorrow . Late tonight, we get to see first day notices filed and I will try and send that your way.  The estimated volume today was  good at 263,718 contracts.    The confirmed volume on Tuesday was extremely  good at 327,472 contracts.



The total silver Comex OI completely plays to a different drummer than gold. Its OI rose  by 674  contracts to 145,973,  with  silver's rise in price of 22 cents yesterday. The front month of May is now off the board.  The total number of notices served for the month is represented by 3416 contracts or 17,080,000 ounces of silver which will in all probability be the final number standing.  The next  delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 39 contracts to stand at 203. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell  by 572 contracts to rest tonight at 75,004.   The estimated volume today was good, coming in at 47,521 contracts.  The confirmed volume yesterday was poor  at  31,242.


Comex gold/May contract month:


May 30/2013

final standings:




Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 1,901.97 (HSBC, Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
14,143,91 (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today
 8 (800  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)
off the board
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3050  (305,000  oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
10,656.61
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month


 
746,445.66 oz  



We had fair activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0  dealer withdrawals.


We had another strange entry yesterday and today.  You will recall that we had a deposit of one gold brick with a weight of 1,000.02 oz deposited to the dealer Brinks. Today that brick disappeared as it was adjusted out by Brinks as if it never arrived. Seems to me like we have some strange accounting over at the CME.



We had 1 customer deposit today:

1) Into Scotia:  14,143.91 oz  (this arrived from HSBC yesterday from their withdrawal)






total customer deposit: 14,143.91 oz



We had 2 customer withdrawals today:

i) out of HSBC 294.47 oz
ii) out of Scotia: 1607.50


total customer withdrawals:  1,901.97  oz
We had 2   adjustments 

i) the strange removal of 1000.02 oz from Brinks
ii) Out of HSBC we had 9210.069 oz removed from the dealer and enter the customer account of HSBC



The JPMorgan customer vault remains at  310,390.402 oz or 9.65 tonnes. Strangely the CME notified us on Friday that 1000 contracts or 100,000 oz was issued from the JPMorgan's customer vaults.  This figure has not yet been  subtracted from any JPMorgan account, customer or dealer.


Tonight the dealer inventory reduces again and stands tonight at a low of 1.632 million oz (50.76) tonnes of gold. The total of all gold slightly rises, resting tonight at 8.055 million oz or 250.54 tonnes.

Today we had 8 notices served upon our longs for 800 oz of gold. You will recall yesterday that we had 8 contracts still outstanding in the gold comex and these were fulfilled today.  Thus our month of May is complete.



Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:

3050 contracts x 100 oz per contract  or  305,000 oz standing or 9.486 tonnes of gold.  


This is extremely high for a non active month. 

 We now have the official USA production of gold last year and it registered 230 tonnes.  Thus approximately 19.16 tonnes of gold is produced by all mines in the USA. Thus the amount standing for gold this month represents  49.5% of that total production.


end






Silver:



May 30.2013:  May silver: 


final standings

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory40,030.3 (HSBC)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 10,023.880 oz (Scotia)  
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 430,085.13( Brinks,HSBC)
No of oz served (contracts)58 (290,000)
No of oz to be served (notices)off the board
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3416  (17,080,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month1,530,909.0 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month6,153,329.3  oz


Today, we  had tiny activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 1  dealer withdrawals.



ii) Out of the dealer Scotia:  40,030.30  oz

total dealer withdrawal:  40,030.30 oz


We had 2 customer deposits:


i) Into brinks:  300,188.93 oz
ii) Into HSBC:  129,896.20 OZ




total customer deposit; 430,085.13  oz


We had 1 customer withdrawals:


i) out of HSBC:  10,023.80 oz







total customer withdrawal    10,023.80   oz 

  
we had 0    adjustments  today


Registered silver  at :  42.807 million oz
total of all silver:  165.290 million oz.




The CME reported that we had 58 notices filed for 290,000 oz. We have a total of 3,416 notices filed  this month for 17,080,000 oz which should represent the final amount standing.  You will recall that we had 68 notices left to be served upon last night and only 58 were served, leaving 10 outstanding.  They may hit again late tonight or those 10 will either cash settled, sold out, or rolled to June/July.
  
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this  active delivery month of May is as follows:

3416 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 17,080,000  oz


 The total standing for silver is still superb for May.

The total amount standing for May in silver represents 50.83% of ANNUAL silver production from the USA  (the USA produces around 33.6 million oz per year.)


Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first: flat from Wednesday ! 

Tonnes1,013.15

Ounces32,573,918.24

Value US$46.023   billion






May 29.2013:

Tonnes1,013.15

Ounces32,573,918.24

Value US$45.014  billion





*   *   * 


Selected news and views.....



Interesting that the new silver and gold ETF's with the backing of the Canadian mint is trading at a discount and yet premiums for silver and gold in China and India are at record levels.  I guess that investors are wary of any sort of paper gold or paper silver.




(courtesy globe and mail/Toronto) 

MARTIN MITTELSTAEDT
The Globe and Mail


Canadian mint's gold and silver funds trade at a discount to metal value

Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2013-05-30 04:54. Section: 
On Sale Now: Canada's Gold Reserves
Interesting that the new silver and gold ETF's with the backing of the Canadian mint is trading at a discount and yet premiums for silver and gold in China and India are at record levels:


There's gold and silver on sale on the Toronto stock market, courtesy of an unusual source: the government of Canada.
The Royal Canadian Mint has issued two exchange-traded receipts, one representing a weight of gold, the other a weight of silver, that are currently trading for less than the market value of the precious metals they represent.
The discount is modest. For the gold ETR, it was 1.7 per cent on Wednesday; for the silver receipt, slightly less than 1 per cent.
Still, it is uncommon to find securities exchangeable for precious metals worth less than their current metal prices, especially when the securities are backed by the mint, which is backed by the full faith and credit of the triple-A-rated federal government.

"We're trading at a bit of a discount. We aren't exactly sure why," comments Steve Higgins, senior manager of investor relations at the mint.
He has been surprised that the securities have been trading so cheaply compared with their metal value, especially since the mint's telephones "kind of went nuts" this year with institutions clamouring to meet investor demand to buy coins and bullion. Demand for gold coins in the first four months soared 123 per cent from the same period in 2012; for silver coins, it’s up 88 per cent.
The discount is particularly unusual considering investors holding enough of the receipts can take them to the mint and redeem them for gold coins or bars held in the Crown corporation’s fortress-like vault near the Parliament buildings. Ever helpful in this department, the mint publishes a list of armoured car companies that can be dispatched to haul away the lucre. To date, though, only two giant 400-ounce gold bars worth about $560,000 (U.S.) each have been picked up.
"We don't like people pulling up with their pickup trucks or anything along those lines" for security reasons, Mr. Higgins explains.
The discount has arisen as investors dumped the securities following the swoon in precious metals prices in February and April, and is a sign of how disenchanted markets are toward the one-time havens. Both securities previously traded for more than their metal value. The gold receipt, which trades under the ticker symbol MNT and was issued in 2011, once had as much as a 10-per-cent "premium," or excess value over the underlying metal value. The silver receipt trades under the symbol MNS.
Many investors may be unaware of the two receipts, which combined represent only about $550-million worth of precious metals. That makes them small fry compared to the giant SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, which holds a stash of worth about $45-billion.
To be sure, the mint's securities are slightly different animals than the SPDR, which represents an interest in a fund that holds gold bullion. In the case of the mint's receipts, investors have a direct interest in actual metal held in safekeeping by the mint.
The SPDR tracks its actual gold value because the fund redeems and creates securities, as needed, on a daily basis to meet demand. For the mint's receipts, there are a fixed number of securities outstanding; their value can depart from the worth of the metal they represent based on the rise and fall of investor demand.
The federal government could buy the receipts and pocket the discount itself, but doesn't intend to do so. Major investors holding at least 10,000 of the gold ETRs or 5,000 of the silver ones could also redeem them for metal and acquire holdings at a below-market price.
Chris Carkner, mint sales director, said demand for gold and silver coins began rising sharply just after the U.S. election, and received another boost this year when precious metal prices sagged in February and April. Sales have been up around the world, including in the U.S., Singapore, Hong Kong, and Germany, where silver coins are popular. In the first four months of the year, the mint sold 440,000 ounces worth of gold coins and nine million ounces of silver coins.

Gold bars still in tight supply. Premiums touch new highs:
(courtesy Reuters)

Singapore gold bar premiums touch new highs on tight supply

Dealers in Singapore were quoting up to $7 an ounce over spot London prices for gold kilogram bars on Wednesday versus $5 last week.
Thursday May 30, 2013

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -



Premiums for physical gold in Singapore touched new highs this week as supplies proved hard to acquire, even as premiums in other Asian countries eased after gold prices bounced off two-year lows seen in April.
Dealers in Singapore, a center for bullion trading in Southeast Asia, were quoting up to $7 an ounce over spot London prices for gold kilogram bars, versus $5 last week.
Gold kilo bars continue to be scarce and some dealers, unable to fill demand, have had to stop taking orders.
" Singapore is still facing a shortage. As long as there are no ready stocks, premiums will be high," said Brian Lan, managing director of bullion dealer GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore. "There is a huge backlog."…
-END-
At the moment…
*The setup for gold, both fundamentally and technically, is extremely bullish and is setting the stage for stage for a move into all-time high ground as the year wears on. That said, the bullish excitement over today’s stellar move up in the price is likely to be met with disdain by The Gold Cartel. After all, tomorrow is Friday and they hit gold 85% of the time on Fridays. Just the way it is.
*In light of what gold did today, the silver action was TERRIBLE. It seems there is always something with The Gold Cartel. JP Morgan is not through with their heinous short trade yet.

*The awful sentiment in the precious metals sector remains a huge positive factor. Indicative of just how bad it is everywhere was how empty the Cambridge House conference was, the worst in decades in terms of attendees and exhibitors. The scorched early policy towards the precious metals sector has worked. But, it is setting the stage for some super fireworks down the road.


end




India is now set to import around 350 to 400 tonnes in the second quarter.  At this rate, they will import close to 73% of annual gold production (ex China ex Russia)


(courtesy Indian Times) and special thanks to Ed Steer for providing this to us):




India to import around 350-400 tonnes of gold in Q2; Asia demand to hit record: WGC

Asian gold demand from this April to June will reach a quarterly record as bullion consumers in the region take possession of supply freed up by selling from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday.

Gold prices fell to their lowest in more than two years at $1,321.35 an ounce in mid-April on signs of economic improvement in main markets and fears that central banks around the world could start to curtail their bullion-friendly policy measures.

The move scared investors in the West, triggering a sharp liquidation of speculative and ETF positions. But lower prices also prompted strong physical demand from price-sensitive countries such as India and China, which together account for more than 50 percent of consumer demand for bullion.
This excellent must read story was posted on the indiatimes.com Internet site early Wednesdayafternoon IST...and I thank Nitin Agrawal for being the first person through the door with it.



Read more...


No doubt that the following commentary from Bill Holter is the most important one issued by another financial commentator. The shadow banking industry is the grease that keeps the economy flowing.  Once the flow stops, the engine seizes and the "vehicle" stops.  On Saturday, we alerted you that the EU was "thinking" of stopping the shadow banking industry  (the hypothecation and rehypothecation of assets). On the weekend, we heard the story of fake collateral in the possession of  4 employees of the Hong Kong Mercantile Gold Exchange.  These 4 individuals had fake letters of credit from the HSBC bank and Standard Charter.  These individuals were charged along with their CEO Barry Cheng for intent to use these instruments. Yesterday, we showed a story how the BIS is now getting involved and they are stating that the shadow banking industry must end.

I now give you Bill Holter:

(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)





But why...now?





Bill Holter



  I've had several people ask me "why is collateral coming into question now, at this particular point in time?".  Last Friday it was reported that "Europe" made noise regarding collateral and the rehypothecation of such.  Then yesterday the BIS also made statements regarding rehypothecation chains.  Before I go any further let me say this, "someone" needs to be and will be "in charge of" or officiate the coming re set, the BIS (the central banks central bank) is the most obvious player.

  By what has been said about collateral (and by who spoke) recently we know that there is a problem of some sort.  Not enough collateral...fake collateral...collateral pledged, re pledged and then pledged 10 more times...true ownership questions etc. etc..  The point is this, the entire façade, the entire house of cards has been built on "collateral".  In the old days no but since let's say 1991-92, recessions have been aborted early or negated entirely by pouring more and more fuel on the fire.  The "fuel" has been money borrowed against "collateral".  Collateral of all sorts, types, sizes and shapes.  Now whether "good" collateral is running out (it already did) or is fake or the chain of ownership cannot be discerned doesn't matter.

  As I see it, the BIS is pulling the plug on this whole daisy chain.  Maybe they know that defaults on the metals exchanges are imminent?  Maybe the Fed cannot keep up with deliveries?  Maybe the Germans are pissed because they now know for a fact that their "custodial" Gold was sold.  Maybe it was something so simple as some square headed accountant with a pencil and piece of paper tried to add 2+2 and in today's system could never come with the number 4?  Who knows?  It doesn't matter.

  What does matter is that this "collateral stuff" is being thrown around.  I might add that while "collateral" is all of a sudden being questioned...Gold has started acting strongly, certainly different than just 10 days ago.  It is also important to understand (remember) that in a "normal" system, Gold is the ULTIMATE collateral!  As long as it is pure and in deliverable form, and as long as you brought it into a financial institution without encumbrance...Gold can always be borrowed against or sold for liquidity.  At a time when collateral has come under suspicion... Gold will rise to the top of all "monies" and collaterals.

  I have said all along that the only real solution to making the global banking system solvent once again would be marking the price of Gold up many many multiples.  This "mark up" will fill central bank balance sheet holes AND take the ownership up, out and away from the ability of the common man to purchase and thus killing two or more birds with one stone.  There of course will need to be some sort of cover story so that something can be pointed to as "the reason".  A war?  Power going out in South Africa and the mines flooding?  A big bank or broker breaking the daisy chain?  Or even a little butterfly flapping its wings in Japan?  Doesn't matter. 

  I will leave you with this thought, in a system completely built AND running (surviving) on debt, what would be the absolute worst possible thing to happen.  Yes, the "collateral" coming into question.  This "cannot" come into question but surely looks like it is.  Have you stocked up on collateral?   Real and un hypothecated collateral?  Regards,  Bill H.



Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)