Monday May 13 , 2013 evening gold and silver news and views .....
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/05/aftermath-of-hilsenraths-tapering-gold.html
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/05/aftermath-of-hilsenraths-tapering-gold.html
Monday, May 13, 2013
Aftermath of Hilsenrath's tapering/ Gold imports into India jump 138% or 166 tonnes/
Gold closed down $2.50 to $1434.50 (comex closing time). Silver rose by only 4 cents to $23.67 (comex closing time)
In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver are the following :
gold: $1431.0.
silver: $23.69
Although gold was weak throughout the day, silver again refused to buckle. Gold/silver equity shares were quite soft throughout the day.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 142 contracts to 145,466 contracts despite silver's fall on Friday. The silver OI is holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract fell by 1687 contracts to 440,684 as we still have a few more dumb paper players willing to take on the crooked bankers. With gold's huge drop on Friday, one would have thought that the OI would have collapsed further. The gold deliveries for May rose considerably today surpassing 7 tonnes at 7.645 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. In silver we continue to see the total number of ounces standing rise above the quantity that stood on first day notice. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May now stands at 17.285 million oz. ( On first day notice: 14.860 million oz.)
Again, at the Comex, gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold rests at 1.836 million oz or 57.10 tonnes. The total of all gold at the comex fell below the 8 million oz at 248.77 tonnes
The GLD for a change reported so far no change in inventory.
The SLV inventory of silver remained constant.
In other physical news, we got a whopper demand for gold (physical) from Dubai.
They reported in the past two weeks alone a massive 50 tonnes of gold was demanded. In India last month, 166 tonnes were imported. Remember that the world produces around 183 tonnes per month. China is importing greater than 200 tonnes into its country.
In paper news...
On Friday night we finally saw the Hilsenrath paper on the supposed tapering of government purchases of bonds. We are 7 months into the year and the government's fiscal year and already the deficit is 700 billion. The Fed claims that they can taper because they suspect the deficit for the year will be anywhere from 840 billion to 900 billion. The USA deficit is around 100 billion USA per month. How on earth can the deficit rise by only 140 billion in the next 5 months. (See below the paper written by Dave Kranzler, the GoldenTruth).
In Japan, for the 2nd straight session, we saw the huge Japanese bond market halted as yields go skyrocketing. The yield ended 9 basis points higher this morning.
In the USA retail sales rose by .1% but on an adjusted basis. On a non adjusted basis it declined by 2.5%
It looks like, Detroit will run out of cash by next month. It looks like it will have to default.
We will go over these and other stories but first.....................
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:
The total gold comex open interest fell today by 1657 contracts from 442,341 down to 440,684, with gold falling by $32.00 on Friday. With such a whack in gold one would have thought that the OI would have contracted more. We no doubt had a few new ball players enter the arena at these lower prices for gold. The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI rise by 506 contracts down up to 635. However we had 8 delivery notices filed on Friday. Thus we gained 514 contracts or 51,400 additional gold ounces will stand for delivery in May. The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 4434 contracts to 218,379 as most of these paper players rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calendar and first day notice is less than 3 weeks away. The estimated volume today was poor at 144,354 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also very strong at 267,884 contracts.
The total silver Comex OI surprisingly rose by 142 contracts from 145,324 down to 145,466 with silver's fall in price of 25 cents on Friday. The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 215 contracts down to 732. We had 220 delivery notices filed on Friday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand for delivery in May. The next delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 30 contracts to stand at 374. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell by 341 contracts to rest tonight at 78,796. The estimated volume today was fair, coming in at 31,259 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was very good at 57,113.
In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver are the following :
gold: $1431.0.
silver: $23.69
Although gold was weak throughout the day, silver again refused to buckle. Gold/silver equity shares were quite soft throughout the day.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 142 contracts to 145,466 contracts despite silver's fall on Friday. The silver OI is holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract fell by 1687 contracts to 440,684 as we still have a few more dumb paper players willing to take on the crooked bankers. With gold's huge drop on Friday, one would have thought that the OI would have collapsed further. The gold deliveries for May rose considerably today surpassing 7 tonnes at 7.645 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. In silver we continue to see the total number of ounces standing rise above the quantity that stood on first day notice. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May now stands at 17.285 million oz. ( On first day notice: 14.860 million oz.)
Again, at the Comex, gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold rests at 1.836 million oz or 57.10 tonnes. The total of all gold at the comex fell below the 8 million oz at 248.77 tonnes
The GLD for a change reported so far no change in inventory.
The SLV inventory of silver remained constant.
In other physical news, we got a whopper demand for gold (physical) from Dubai.
They reported in the past two weeks alone a massive 50 tonnes of gold was demanded. In India last month, 166 tonnes were imported. Remember that the world produces around 183 tonnes per month. China is importing greater than 200 tonnes into its country.
In paper news...
On Friday night we finally saw the Hilsenrath paper on the supposed tapering of government purchases of bonds. We are 7 months into the year and the government's fiscal year and already the deficit is 700 billion. The Fed claims that they can taper because they suspect the deficit for the year will be anywhere from 840 billion to 900 billion. The USA deficit is around 100 billion USA per month. How on earth can the deficit rise by only 140 billion in the next 5 months. (See below the paper written by Dave Kranzler, the GoldenTruth).
In Japan, for the 2nd straight session, we saw the huge Japanese bond market halted as yields go skyrocketing. The yield ended 9 basis points higher this morning.
In the USA retail sales rose by .1% but on an adjusted basis. On a non adjusted basis it declined by 2.5%
It looks like, Detroit will run out of cash by next month. It looks like it will have to default.
We will go over these and other stories but first.....................
The total gold comex open interest fell today by 1657 contracts from 442,341 down to 440,684, with gold falling by $32.00 on Friday. With such a whack in gold one would have thought that the OI would have contracted more. We no doubt had a few new ball players enter the arena at these lower prices for gold. The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI rise by 506 contracts down up to 635. However we had 8 delivery notices filed on Friday. Thus we gained 514 contracts or 51,400 additional gold ounces will stand for delivery in May. The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 4434 contracts to 218,379 as most of these paper players rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calendar and first day notice is less than 3 weeks away. The estimated volume today was poor at 144,354 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was also very strong at 267,884 contracts.
The total silver Comex OI surprisingly rose by 142 contracts from 145,324 down to 145,466 with silver's fall in price of 25 cents on Friday. The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 215 contracts down to 732. We had 220 delivery notices filed on Friday so we gained 5 contracts or an additional 25,000 oz will stand for delivery in May. The next delivery month for silver is June and here the OI fell by 30 contracts to stand at 374. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell by 341 contracts to rest tonight at 78,796. The estimated volume today was fair, coming in at 31,259 contracts. The confirmed volume on Friday was very good at 57,113.
Comex gold/May contract month:
We had 1 customer deposits today:
i) Into Brinks: 32.15 oz
total customer deposit: 32.15 oz
We had another strange customer withdrawal today:
You will recall that we had a deposit on Friday into Scotia of exactly this:
64,227.216 oz. Today we had the same exact withdrawal from Scotia.
What on earth is going on? Two tonnes enter Scotia on Friday as a deposit and today the exact same two tonnes leaves!!
total withdrawal: 64,227.216 oz
1856 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 185,600 oz (served) + 596 notices or 59,600 oz (to be served upon) = 2,345,796 oz or 7.645 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely high for a non active month. We gained 51,400 additional gold ounces standing for the May comex gold contract today.
The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan at its customer gold remains at a very low 4.9 tonnes of gold and the dealer gold at its nadir at 1.836 million oz.
ii) Out of CNT: 606,626.765 oz
iv) Out of JPM: 803,125.05 oz
v) Out of Scotia: 30,763.66 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1,446,475.675 oz
Published Sunday, May 12, 2013
Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply.
Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.
According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, "Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market."
The usual numbers that Schubert refers to are the same as the demand seen since April. According to World Gold Council data, total consumer demand for gold in the UAE (not just Dubai) stood at 51.8 tonnes for the entire year 2012, which means that demand was about 4.31 tonnes per month during last year.
Compared with that, as Schubert mentions, Dubai demand in the past few weeks has been 50 tonnes plus ‘usual’ numbers, in effect reflecting the massive surge in interest that gold has seen in this past few weeks.
"Physical markets have done magically well in recent weeks with people from the industry commenting on the amounts of gold bought in regional markets," wrote Schubert.
"This is the new gold rush," quipped the manager of a Mall of the Emirates outlet of a major Dubai-based gold retailer, who said he did not wish to be named as he’s not authorised to talk to the media.
"We have been running out of gold coins and bars even before they reach our stores," he added. "There are people who are ‘pre-booking’ gold bars with us, and they collect it once new supply arrives," he said.
The pre-booking that the manager refers to entails customers paying a down payment, usually 10 to 15 per cent, of the price of the gold bar to reserve it for them, and then collect it when the physical bar is supplied, at the current gold rate.
"One commentator said that the physical off-take in Hong Kong has been to the tune of 30 tonnes between the April 29 and the May 2 alone," Schubert wrote in his weekly report.
To put things in perspective, Hong King gold demand for 2012 stood at 28.5 tonnes, which mathematically means about 2.4 tonnes a month. Compares with that, the 30 tonnes off-take in four days goes on to show the massive physical support that gold has at these price levels.
"Gold refineries are currently working flat out 24/7 in order to satisfy orders from all over the world," says Schubert.
"The refineries need to borrow gold from the market in order to be able to produce the small investment bars, coins, jewellery etc. However the borrowing from the gold refineries of the world do not explain the sudden rise in borrowing cost for gold, especially with the huge amount of gold liquidity (theoretically) available from the redemptions of ETF holdings. Another possibility could be that there is renewed interest from the gold producer side to re-engage in forward hedging. ‘The Return of the Hedger’ could become another classic after the near extinction of the species in the early years of this century," he added.
All this is being amplified by the gold demand from India and China – two of the world’s top gold consumers.
"Chinese gold import numbers reached record highs, with March imports from Hong Kong reaching 224 tonnes. This means that the imports for the first quarter of 2013 have reached 378 tonnes. India has also seen record import levels. April saw imports of more than 100 tonnes and the same is expected for May. However, this might be in anticipation of increased sales for Akshaya Tritiya, but possibly more so in front of the restrictions for gold imports from the Reserve Bank of India, which are expected to come into force at the end of this month. Nevertheless, both countries, i.e. India and China, are well on their way to breach the 1,000 tonne-level for physical demand in 2013," says Schubert.
The price of an ounce of gold dipped to $1,420 intra-day on Friday, May 10, 2013, the last trading of the week, but recovered to just under $1,450 per ounce after the market closed.
"Gold prices tried and failed last week again to break the initial resistance level at $1,485. This level has now been tested twice and will provide a decent resistance level for the near future," maintains Schubert.
But f demand from Dubai and Hong Kong – not to mention India and China – is anything to go by, get ready to once again buy an ounce of gold at $1,600 sooner than later.http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold-price-falls-to-1-420-oz-dubai-sees-massive-
surge-in-bullion-demand-2013-05-12-1.506109
-END-
May 13/2013
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
64,227.216 (Scotia)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| 32.15 (Scotia) |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
39 (3900 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
596 (59,600)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
1856 (185,600)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
nil
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 483,433.23 oz |
We had good activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.
We had 1 customer deposits today:
i) Into Brinks: 32.15 oz
total customer deposit: 32.15 oz
We had another strange customer withdrawal today:
You will recall that we had a deposit on Friday into Scotia of exactly this:
64,227.216 oz. Today we had the same exact withdrawal from Scotia.
What on earth is going on? Two tonnes enter Scotia on Friday as a deposit and today the exact same two tonnes leaves!!
total withdrawal: 64,227.216 oz
We had 1 adjustment
Out of the Scotia vault: 902.724 oz was adjusted out of the customer and back into the dealer account. The JPMorgan vault remained dormant today.
Out of the Scotia vault: 902.724 oz was adjusted out of the customer and back into the dealer account. The JPMorgan vault remained dormant today.
Thus the dealer inventory remains tonight at a low of 1.836 million oz (57.10) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold falls again considerably at the comex and this time, this time below the 8 million oz as it rests at 7.998 million oz or 248.77 tonnes.
The total of all gold falls again considerably at the comex and this time, this time below the 8 million oz as it rests at 7.998 million oz or 248.77 tonnes.
The CME reported that we had 39 notices filed today for 3900 oz of gold.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May (635) and subtract out Monday's notices (39) which leaves us with 596 notices or 59,600 oz left to be served upon our longs.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May (635) and subtract out Monday's notices (39) which leaves us with 596 notices or 59,600 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:
1856 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 185,600 oz (served) + 596 notices or 59,600 oz (to be served upon) = 2,345,796 oz or 7.645 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely high for a non active month. We gained 51,400 additional gold ounces standing for the May comex gold contract today.
The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan at its customer gold remains at a very low 4.9 tonnes of gold and the dealer gold at its nadir at 1.836 million oz.
end
Silver:
May 13.2013: May silver:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 54,240.5000 (CNT) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,446,475.675 oz (Delaware, CNT, JPM, Scotia ) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 294,471.24 (Brinks) |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 600,056.20 (CNT) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 138 (690,000) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 594 (2,970,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2863 (14,315,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 204,097.65 |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 1,333,117.3 |
Today, we had good activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 1 dealer deposits and 1 dealer withdrawals.
i) Out of Brinks we had 294,471.24 oz withdrawn
Total dealer withdrawal: 294,471.24 oz
We had 1 dealer deposit into CNT: 600,056.20 oz
total dealer deposit: 600,056.20
We had 1 customer deposits:
Into Brinks: 294,471.24 oz
total customer deposit; 294,471.24 oz
We had 4 customer withdrawals:
1) Out of Delaware: 5,960.2 oz
i) Out of Brinks we had 294,471.24 oz withdrawn
Total dealer withdrawal: 294,471.24 oz
We had 1 dealer deposit into CNT: 600,056.20 oz
total dealer deposit: 600,056.20
We had 1 customer deposits:
Into Brinks: 294,471.24 oz
total customer deposit; 294,471.24 oz
We had 4 customer withdrawals:
1) Out of Delaware: 5,960.2 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 606,626.765 oz
iv) Out of JPM: 803,125.05 oz
v) Out of Scotia: 30,763.66 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1,446,475.675 oz
we had 1 adjustments today
i) Out of the Delaware vault: 50,797.662 oz was adjusted out of the customer and into the dealer.
i) Out of the Delaware vault: 50,797.662 oz was adjusted out of the customer and into the dealer.
Registered silver at : 44.986 million oz
total of all silver: 164,888 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 138 notices filed for 690,000 oz. To calculate the number of ounces that will stand in silver, I take the OI standing for May (732) and subtract out Monday's notices (138) which leaves us with 594 notices or 2,970,000 oz
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active delivery month of May is as follows:
2863 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 14,315,000 + 594 contracts x 5000 oz = 2,970,000 oz ( to be served) = 17,285,000 oz.
we gained 25,000 oz of silver standing for May today. The total standing for silver is superb for May.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active delivery month of May is as follows:
2863 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 14,315,000 + 594 contracts x 5000 oz = 2,970,000 oz ( to be served) = 17,285,000 oz.
we gained 25,000 oz of silver standing for May today. The total standing for silver is superb for May.
Note the past 4 days for the GLD ETf - are we seeing the expected flattening of physical withdrawals at GLD - over the past 4 sessions , GLD inventory has been essentially static ..... right around 1051.47 - 1051.65 tons !
May 13.2013: (as of 6 pm est)
May 10.2013:
Tonnes
May 8.2013:
Tonnes1,051.65
Ounces33,811,468.47
Value US$48.364 billion
May 10.2013:
Tonnes
1,051.65
Ounces33,811,468.47
Value US$48.222 billion
May 9.2013:
Tonnes
1,054.18
Ounces33,892,812.62
Value US$49.641 billion
May 8.2013:
Tonnes
1,051.47
Ounces33,805,784.75
Value US$49.598 billion
news and views of note....
Gold price falls to $1,420/oz: Dubai sees massive surge in bullion demand
By
Vicky Kapur
Dubai demand for gold has been witnessing a massive surge since the price collapse of last month, with demand far outstripping supply.
Various estimates suggest that demand in the past few weeks has been nothing short of astronomical, surging by 10 times the normal demand.
According to the latest precious metals weekly report by Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at local bank Emirates NBD, "Participants of the physical industry in Dubai believe that an additional 50 tonnes have been bought since the price crash in April. These sales figures are in addition to the ‘usual’ numbers and put a little perspective on the derivative side of the market."
The usual numbers that Schubert refers to are the same as the demand seen since April. According to World Gold Council data, total consumer demand for gold in the UAE (not just Dubai) stood at 51.8 tonnes for the entire year 2012, which means that demand was about 4.31 tonnes per month during last year.
Compared with that, as Schubert mentions, Dubai demand in the past few weeks has been 50 tonnes plus ‘usual’ numbers, in effect reflecting the massive surge in interest that gold has seen in this past few weeks.
"Physical markets have done magically well in recent weeks with people from the industry commenting on the amounts of gold bought in regional markets," wrote Schubert.
"This is the new gold rush," quipped the manager of a Mall of the Emirates outlet of a major Dubai-based gold retailer, who said he did not wish to be named as he’s not authorised to talk to the media.
"We have been running out of gold coins and bars even before they reach our stores," he added. "There are people who are ‘pre-booking’ gold bars with us, and they collect it once new supply arrives," he said.
The pre-booking that the manager refers to entails customers paying a down payment, usually 10 to 15 per cent, of the price of the gold bar to reserve it for them, and then collect it when the physical bar is supplied, at the current gold rate.
"One commentator said that the physical off-take in Hong Kong has been to the tune of 30 tonnes between the April 29 and the May 2 alone," Schubert wrote in his weekly report.
To put things in perspective, Hong King gold demand for 2012 stood at 28.5 tonnes, which mathematically means about 2.4 tonnes a month. Compares with that, the 30 tonnes off-take in four days goes on to show the massive physical support that gold has at these price levels.
"Gold refineries are currently working flat out 24/7 in order to satisfy orders from all over the world," says Schubert.
"The refineries need to borrow gold from the market in order to be able to produce the small investment bars, coins, jewellery etc. However the borrowing from the gold refineries of the world do not explain the sudden rise in borrowing cost for gold, especially with the huge amount of gold liquidity (theoretically) available from the redemptions of ETF holdings. Another possibility could be that there is renewed interest from the gold producer side to re-engage in forward hedging. ‘The Return of the Hedger’ could become another classic after the near extinction of the species in the early years of this century," he added.
All this is being amplified by the gold demand from India and China – two of the world’s top gold consumers.
"Chinese gold import numbers reached record highs, with March imports from Hong Kong reaching 224 tonnes. This means that the imports for the first quarter of 2013 have reached 378 tonnes. India has also seen record import levels. April saw imports of more than 100 tonnes and the same is expected for May. However, this might be in anticipation of increased sales for Akshaya Tritiya, but possibly more so in front of the restrictions for gold imports from the Reserve Bank of India, which are expected to come into force at the end of this month. Nevertheless, both countries, i.e. India and China, are well on their way to breach the 1,000 tonne-level for physical demand in 2013," says Schubert.
The price of an ounce of gold dipped to $1,420 intra-day on Friday, May 10, 2013, the last trading of the week, but recovered to just under $1,450 per ounce after the market closed.
"Gold prices tried and failed last week again to break the initial resistance level at $1,485. This level has now been tested twice and will provide a decent resistance level for the near future," maintains Schubert.
But f demand from Dubai and Hong Kong – not to mention India and China – is anything to go by, get ready to once again buy an ounce of gold at $1,600 sooner than later.http://www.emirates247.com/markets/gold-price-falls-to-1-420-oz-dubai-sees-massive-
surge-in-bullion-demand-2013-05-12-1.506109
-END-
http://silverdoctors.com/gold-and-silver-it-could-get-uglier/#more-26497
Submitted by Edge Trader Plus:
Think of the people of Cyprus and how they are suffering at the hands of unelected, non-
representative outsiders, the NWO executioners imposing austerity restrictions to pay
for the sins of the bankers.
representative outsiders, the NWO executioners imposing austerity restrictions to pay
for the sins of the bankers.
It used to be the “Golden Rule” was, He who has the gold rules. That has been replaced
with, He who controls the purse strings dictates. The shocking reality of the latter will
become more prevalent, one country at a time. Central bankers will default and make it
appear the fault of the paper holders. What are you going to do about it?!, will be their
attitude. All the central bankers are doing, under the protection of governments, is
stalling for time as they get their end-game in place. What is that end-game? Securing
their stranglehold on power over the failing Western countries so that they remain in
power.
with, He who controls the purse strings dictates. The shocking reality of the latter will
become more prevalent, one country at a time. Central bankers will default and make it
appear the fault of the paper holders. What are you going to do about it?!, will be their
attitude. All the central bankers are doing, under the protection of governments, is
stalling for time as they get their end-game in place. What is that end-game? Securing
their stranglehold on power over the failing Western countries so that they remain in
power.
The golden Ponzi scheme may be unraveling, but do not expect China, Russia, India and
other countries to put immediate pressure on the central bankers. They are far more
cunning and patient as they smell blood, and they know that in the end, they will extract
far more from the failing power of the West. The BRICS countries are building their own
trade relations, cutting out the fiat Federal Reserve Note as a world reserve currency. So
let the central bankers manipulate the price of gold and silver as much as they want, for
as long as they want. It will simply make it more rewarding for the newly rising Eastern
powers when the fraud’s final chapter is written.
other countries to put immediate pressure on the central bankers. They are far more
cunning and patient as they smell blood, and they know that in the end, they will extract
far more from the failing power of the West. The BRICS countries are building their own
trade relations, cutting out the fiat Federal Reserve Note as a world reserve currency. So
let the central bankers manipulate the price of gold and silver as much as they want, for
as long as they want. It will simply make it more rewarding for the newly rising Eastern
powers when the fraud’s final chapter is written.
We see this as a Cliff Note version that the general public fails to consider and instead,
expects a demise of the COMEX and LME as the catapulting catalyst for substantially
higher gold and silver prices. Based upon these questionable expectations, the public will
not be prepared for what could take a few more years to develop, and the potential for yet
much lower prices for both gold and silver. This certainly is not a blueprint of the future,
but a conjecture of what could happen, in one form or another. In the end, no one knows
how this will turn out, other than a strong belief that it will get worse before it gets better.
expects a demise of the COMEX and LME as the catapulting catalyst for substantially
higher gold and silver prices. Based upon these questionable expectations, the public will
not be prepared for what could take a few more years to develop, and the potential for yet
much lower prices for both gold and silver. This certainly is not a blueprint of the future,
but a conjecture of what could happen, in one form or another. In the end, no one knows
how this will turn out, other than a strong belief that it will get worse before it gets better.
Gold and silver can become illegal to use in public trade or barter. Anyone caught could be
branded as a “financial terrorist” as governments continue to crack down on any form of
opposition to their fiat enslaving control. Anyone “caught” with more than “x” ounces of
gold or silver will have to prove it was legally purchased or risk confiscation. War, on a
wider scale, cannot be ruled out as a “diversion” often used by the NWO ilk. No one
knows.
branded as a “financial terrorist” as governments continue to crack down on any form of
opposition to their fiat enslaving control. Anyone “caught” with more than “x” ounces of
gold or silver will have to prove it was legally purchased or risk confiscation. War, on a
wider scale, cannot be ruled out as a “diversion” often used by the NWO ilk. No one
knows.
For all the short-comings of the paper prices reported by the COMEX and what resulting
charts, are saying, they will be used until something better comes along. Regardless of
what the charts show, one should continue to buy physical gold and silver, [and personally
hold it], on a regular basis. Fiat currencies will continue to be debased by governments. A
failing fiat and falling gold and silver prices cannot continue indefinitely, and the fiat will
be the ultimate loser. Those who continue to hold paper anything, may be subject to near
total loss.
charts, are saying, they will be used until something better comes along. Regardless of
what the charts show, one should continue to buy physical gold and silver, [and personally
hold it], on a regular basis. Fiat currencies will continue to be debased by governments. A
failing fiat and falling gold and silver prices cannot continue indefinitely, and the fiat will
be the ultimate loser. Those who continue to hold paper anything, may be subject to near
total loss.
Inflation is already guaranteeing losses with the fiat FRN losing 35% just on the past
decade. Then there is the consideration of being “Cyprused” in your bank accounts, stock
accounts, futures accounts, [MF Global], and pensions. Gold and silver remain the best alternatives.
decade. Then there is the consideration of being “Cyprused” in your bank accounts, stock
accounts, futures accounts, [MF Global], and pensions. Gold and silver remain the best alternatives.
There is nothing conclusive for initiating a position in the futures in either direction. We
stated previously that the wide range bar of 15 April is likely to contain price activity for
some time, now into the third week. Price is holding the support channel line, but rally
attempts have not been strong. It does not mean price cannot go higher, next week, but
there is no new demand that says to be a buyer in futures.
stated previously that the wide range bar of 15 April is likely to contain price activity for
some time, now into the third week. Price is holding the support channel line, but rally
attempts have not been strong. It does not mean price cannot go higher, next week, but
there is no new demand that says to be a buyer in futures.
Friday’s close on the daily was under the last 10 days of buying effort. No reason to buy.
We would like to see a failed rally above 1500 to be a seller.
We would like to see a failed rally above 1500 to be a seller.
How price responds around a support or resistance is an important market clue. Right
now, silver cannot rally higher and away from a support area, and that suggests support
may not hold.
now, silver cannot rally higher and away from a support area, and that suggests support
may not hold.
The daily chart does little to clarify direction, although one has to keep in mind that
sellers are still in control. The clustering of closes sends a mixed message, as noted on
the chart.
sellers are still in control. The clustering of closes sends a mixed message, as noted on
the chart.
The clearest scenario is the ongoing purchase and accumulation of physical gold and silver
as a store of value against an increasingly uncertain future.
as a store of value against an increasingly uncertain future.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4709/here-we-go-again
Here We Go Again
Another week in the barrel begins. There's a lot going on so come on in.
Jeez, where do we start on this fine Monday? Maybe we should start this week where last week ended? You'll recall that, back on Thursday, some hedge fund deltabravo whom nobody had ever heard of, posted a tweet that Jon "BernankButtBoy" Hilsenrath was about to release an article discussing how The Bernank might go about "tapering" QE∞. Though clearly the real object of this scam was to talk down an overheated stock market just a bit (think Mr. Andrea Mitchell and his "Irrational Exuberance" talk back in the 90s), the impact it had on gold was instantaneous. The Comex closed on Thursday at 1:30. The offending tweet came out at about 2:00. Before gold could re-open on the Comex at 8:20 on Friday, it was down over $40. Very nice. And then, of course, in order to not dampen the spirits of the HFTs too much, the ButtBoy article didn't actually get released until after the NYSE close on Friday. The impact? As I type, gold is still down about $35 from Thursday's close. Equities, of course, are about unchanged.
And this has once again emboldened the shorts to drive price lower as they rightly feel that all of the momentum is on their side. As we start the week, the metals look almost certain to test hoped-for support, gold around $1400 and silver near $23. From there, maybe CIGA BoPelini will be right and all of this madness will end. ( http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/10/update-on-gold-from-ciga-bo-polny/) That'd sure be nice but I'm not getting my hopes up too high.
If you missed my CoT summary from Friday, you can find it here:http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/309638#comment-309638 There wasn't a lot of earth-shattering stuff in there this week but I want to re-emphasize some points I made toward the end of the comment. Look at these facts:
Finally, lets once again compare the Cartel net positions of last Tuesday with The Cartel net positions of 9/11/12, just two days before the announcement of QE∞.
- On 9/11/12, The Gold Cartel was net short 237,091 contracts. That's 23,709,100 troy ounces or a whopping 737 metric tonnes of paper gold.
- As of last Tuesday, The Gold Cartel is net short 87,719 contracts. That's 8,771,900 troy ounces or just 272 metric tonnes of paper gold. A reduction of potential settlement obligation of over 63%.
- On 9/11/12, The Silver Commercials were net short 47,272 contracts. That's 236,360,000 troy ounces of silver, which is a whopping 7,351 metric tonnes of paper silver or about 30% of global silver mine production for 2012.
- As of last Tuesday, The Silver Commercials were net short 14,456 contracts. That's 72,280,000 or 2,248 metric tonnes of paper silver. A reduction in potential liability of over 69%!!
And finally, here's the most interesting comparison. On 9/11/12, the Silver Commercials were:
- Long 32,206 and
- Short 79,478
Nearly eight months, $450B new QE dollars and $13 in silver later, the Silver Commercials are:
- Long 65,703 (+104%) and
- Short 80,159 (+0.85%)
Look, I am 100% convinced that everything that has happened since mid-September of last year has been completely designed by the Bullion Banks in order to reduce/eliminate their net short positions. After the HUGE rally of August into September 2012, where silver moved from $26 to $35 and gold from $1600 to $1800, The Bernank literally caught the banks with their shorts down, unprepared for the game-changer that is QE∞. Since then, in a increasingly desperate drive to reduce their liability, the banks have successfully moved paper prices lower, even in the face of the extraordinarily strong fundamentals, by convincing the Specs to sell through coordinated raids and chart-painting. Soon the fundamentals will overwhelm everyone but look again at what the banks have been able to accomplish.
They were net short an astounding 737 metric tonnes of paper gold at the time QE∞ was announced. As of last Tuesday, they've trimmed that liability by over 63%, all the way back to about 272 metric tonnes. Look at this another way. All the way down from $1800, the banks have been buying and covering. We're now told that the "bull market in gold is over" yet the banks continue to buy, not sell. Doesn't that tell you anything?
Now consider silver. Yes the picture looks the same. The banks have reduced their net short position by more than 2/3 from 30% of annual silver production back to 10%. But that's not the story, now is it? Look again at the gross numbers. At $36 silver, the banks (mainly JPM) were short 80,159 contracts. As of last Tuesday, with silver at $24, the banks were short 79,478. Virtually unchanged. But look at the "other commercials", the "everyone but JPM crowd", the "raptors" as Uncle Ted calls them. When silver was $36, they were long a gross total of 32,206. As of last Tuesday, the size of that position had more than doubled to 65,703! Again, I ask you:
- If silver is in a "bear market", why are these insiders buying?
- As silver has been beaten lower, why have these commercials been buying and not selling?
- Going forward, do you want to side with them or with the Large and Small Specs?
- Which side, the commercials or the specs, will be proven right in the end?
OK, moving on. Recall that there was much interest that the GLD had actually added metal back on Thursday. This caught nearly everyone by surprise as it was the first addition of metal since February. Well whaddayaknow. On Friday, nearly the exact same amount of metal came right back out of the GLD, leaving it with a 2-day net change of +0.18 metric tonnes. With the hammering that gold took on Friday, you can imagine that the "inventory" downtrend resume in earnest later today. For your reading pleasure, here's the latest from our pal Alasdair Macleod at GoldMoney. He has issues with GLD, too, and he cites a few of them here: http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/the-role-of-gld-and-slv.html
And this is fun. I remember that not too long ago, folks like me were thought of as Loons and TinFoilHatters for suggesting that the days of dollar hegemony were numbered. Well, lookyhere. Even ole CNBS is now getting in on the act: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100726245 Of course, they still don't explain it as well as John Butler did a year ago:http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/3835/tfmr-podcast-22-john-butler-author-golden-revolution And isn't the anti-gold bias just amazing? Nowhere in the article is it even postulated that perhaps the reason China is hoarding so much gold is because they are planning to back the yuan with gold as a fiat alternative. In a competitive global economy, wouldn't that make the yuan far more valuable than ever-devaluing fiat? And wouldn't that competitive edge be the impetus to establish the yuan as a World Reserve Currency much faster than without a gold backing? Ahhh...I digress. That type of out-of-the-box thinking is just craziness, isn't it? Well, we'll see.........
OK, that's all for today. Have a great Monday and let's just hope that we don't get the tests of support that appear to be coming.
TF
Paul Craig Roberts: Gold market rigging exposes a gangster state
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2013-05-13 21:01. Section: Daily Dispatches
5p ET Monday, May 13, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Former Assistant U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts today condemns the rigging of the gold and silver markets by the Federal Reserve as emblematic of a gangster state protecting banks at the expense of the public. Roberts' commentary is headlined "Gangster State America" and it's posted at his Internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
http://silverdoctors.com/emergency-g-7-meeting-elite-ready-to-pull-the-trigger/#more-26493
Submitted By Bill Holter, Miles Franklin Ltd,:
I for one would love to be a fly on the wall to hear the goings on as I am sure the “outsiders” from the rest of the G-20 would. The G-7 are the traditional “power” nations, they are also the ones doing the most printing and inflating. Since the beginning of the Greatest Financial Crisis, these nations have bankrupted themselves the most, printed and borrowed the most and basically “lost power” with their actions. I might add that these nations of the “West” have also been responsible for Gold being shipped “East”…and thus with it “power”.
So what exactly is being discussed? We will soon find out (or see the results) but I would imagine that anything and everything pertaining to the “end game” will be touched upon. Bank weakness and insolvency must be at the top of the list, QE’s lack of traction is also surely up there. Gold inventories (or lack of) must also surely have been discussed and I would certainly think that currency collapse was on the agenda. “Currency collapse”, replacement of same and “bank holiday” including “bail ins” were probably all discussed and pre planned.
Tell me that I am crazy and that none of these topics were broached, the physical metals markets globally are telling me (and them) that they were and that the end game is near. The question is this, how much longer can inventories supply the outsized demand that has been created by the false and fraudulent “paper” crash of metals pricing? “We” do not know the answer to this question, “they” do. “They” know what is really left and whether or not the bottom of the barrel is already in sight.
To the above I would add that here in the U.S. we also have a dangerous week ahead. The Obama administration is taking huge body blows over the Bhengazi attack last year. None of the official stories add up and it turns out that orders came from somewhere to “stand down” while Americans were being killed. I say that this coming week is “dangerous” because “your” attention apparently needs to altered in a different direction. The distinct possibility/probability of some sort of false flag event is now off the charts.
I have maintained all along that a “bank holiday” would ultimately occur which sets positions in cement while a revaluation of assets and currencies takes place. As time has passed, this looks more and more likely to me as nothing has been done to avoid this scenario. In fact, the West has simply pressed the accelerator harder and opened the monetary spigots further…with almost zero effect on the real economy. Stock markets are acting like an early warning signal to a hyperinflation. Gold and Silver have not been allowed to do this which is why physical inventories have been attacked so fiercely.
Since I am not a fly on the wall and can only speculate until “we find out”, my guess is that the end game is in fact being discussed. How best to shut the current system down, reboot another one AND retain as much power as possible. Call me cynical, crazy or whatever, I truly believe that preparations are being discussed here and now “how best” (for them) to close out this current chapter of world finance. By the way, all of this has been discussed and planned years ahead of time, these are not fools. The current discussion is merely about pulling the trigger. Regards, Bill H.
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-bs-is-flying-at-us-everyday-now.html
MONDAY, MAY 13, 2013
The B.S. Is Flying At Us Everyday Now
Two more Government propaganda agencies released extremely misleading data this morning.
First, the Census Bureau released its estimate for April retail sales. The headlines flashed in big bright lights that retail sales increased a "seasonally adjusted" .1% over March. The March number was originally reported at -.4% but was revised lower to -.5% - or down from February.
Now here's the interesting part: if you go by the not seasonally adjusted estimated number, sales for April actually declined from March by 2.5%. That's quite a bit different from the fabled headlines everyone will see or hear today. Here's the data: LINK And a negative reading is more consistent with the wholesale sales number released last Thursday by the Commerce Department, which showed that wholesale sales posted their biggest drop in four years: LINK
You would at least think that if the Government was going to paint a big lie, they could at least get their various statistical departments to cooperate with each other so that the lies are consistent across the data.
An even bigger joke is that Bloomberg News reported today that Wall Street dealers are now forecasting that the U.S. Treasury will reduce the size of upcoming Government Treasury auctions due to "soaring revenue" and based on the CBO's recent estimate that the Government will run only an $845 billion deficit for fiscal 2013.
Now, part of the problem with this idea is that for the first 7 months of FY 2013, the Federal debt load has gone up by $700 billion. The only reason the debt goes up is because revenues are not covering spending - i.e. a true $700 billion cash spending deficit. In terms of the timing of cash flows, we know that the Treasury received a big balloon payment in December as wealthy people sold down taxable assets and paid the gains on them ahead of the Jan 1 tax increases. Moreover, the first few months of the year thru April account for a disproportionate amount of tax revenues for obvious reasons. So, is tax revenue really "soaring?" LOL
The bigger part of this CBO joke is the incredibly poor track record that the CBO has in forecasting debt levels and spending levels. As Zerohedge pointed out back in February, in 2001 the CBO projected that by 2011 the Treasury would have a balance sheet surplus of $2.4 trillion - i.e. no debt. Instead, the actual number was a debt load of $10.4 trillion. Just a slight miss there. And a year ago, the CBO was forecasting that this year's deficit would be $585 billion. Zerohedge Link
Obviously, going by the monthly run-rate already experienced in 2013 for the first 7 months, the Government is running roughly a $100 billion per month deficit. Unless the Government can figure out a way to recreate the one-time surge in revenues that occurred in December and maintain income tax revenues at the same run-rate as they were thru April 15, I would expect that the Government, short of using some accounting tricks, will continue to run about $100 billion per month deficit thru the September FY-end, for a total spending deficit of $1.2 trillion.
The point of all this is that the garbage coming of out of DC and NYC on a daily basis keeps getting bigger, more rotten and more foul-smelling. And I'm sure most of you don't care - I do or I wouldn't have brought this up - but the immigration reform bill going through Congress right now contains language buried in it that mandates the establishment of a database that records and keeps biometric data on every single citizen of the U.S.: LINK All I can say to that is that anyone who doesn't think George Orwell's vision was accurate is an idiot.
If they wanted to eliminate illegal immigration, they should just cut back on welfare and social security disability by about 50%, because it would force people who are otherwise capable of working to do the jobs that illegal immigrants are willing to do.
First, the Census Bureau released its estimate for April retail sales. The headlines flashed in big bright lights that retail sales increased a "seasonally adjusted" .1% over March. The March number was originally reported at -.4% but was revised lower to -.5% - or down from February.
Now here's the interesting part: if you go by the not seasonally adjusted estimated number, sales for April actually declined from March by 2.5%. That's quite a bit different from the fabled headlines everyone will see or hear today. Here's the data: LINK And a negative reading is more consistent with the wholesale sales number released last Thursday by the Commerce Department, which showed that wholesale sales posted their biggest drop in four years: LINK
You would at least think that if the Government was going to paint a big lie, they could at least get their various statistical departments to cooperate with each other so that the lies are consistent across the data.
An even bigger joke is that Bloomberg News reported today that Wall Street dealers are now forecasting that the U.S. Treasury will reduce the size of upcoming Government Treasury auctions due to "soaring revenue" and based on the CBO's recent estimate that the Government will run only an $845 billion deficit for fiscal 2013.
Now, part of the problem with this idea is that for the first 7 months of FY 2013, the Federal debt load has gone up by $700 billion. The only reason the debt goes up is because revenues are not covering spending - i.e. a true $700 billion cash spending deficit. In terms of the timing of cash flows, we know that the Treasury received a big balloon payment in December as wealthy people sold down taxable assets and paid the gains on them ahead of the Jan 1 tax increases. Moreover, the first few months of the year thru April account for a disproportionate amount of tax revenues for obvious reasons. So, is tax revenue really "soaring?" LOL
The bigger part of this CBO joke is the incredibly poor track record that the CBO has in forecasting debt levels and spending levels. As Zerohedge pointed out back in February, in 2001 the CBO projected that by 2011 the Treasury would have a balance sheet surplus of $2.4 trillion - i.e. no debt. Instead, the actual number was a debt load of $10.4 trillion. Just a slight miss there. And a year ago, the CBO was forecasting that this year's deficit would be $585 billion. Zerohedge Link
Obviously, going by the monthly run-rate already experienced in 2013 for the first 7 months, the Government is running roughly a $100 billion per month deficit. Unless the Government can figure out a way to recreate the one-time surge in revenues that occurred in December and maintain income tax revenues at the same run-rate as they were thru April 15, I would expect that the Government, short of using some accounting tricks, will continue to run about $100 billion per month deficit thru the September FY-end, for a total spending deficit of $1.2 trillion.
The point of all this is that the garbage coming of out of DC and NYC on a daily basis keeps getting bigger, more rotten and more foul-smelling. And I'm sure most of you don't care - I do or I wouldn't have brought this up - but the immigration reform bill going through Congress right now contains language buried in it that mandates the establishment of a database that records and keeps biometric data on every single citizen of the U.S.: LINK All I can say to that is that anyone who doesn't think George Orwell's vision was accurate is an idiot.
If they wanted to eliminate illegal immigration, they should just cut back on welfare and social security disability by about 50%, because it would force people who are otherwise capable of working to do the jobs that illegal immigrants are willing to do.
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