Saturday Gold Reports - news and views for the weekend ! Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Report ( Ed calls out CFTC Non - Commercian and Commercial categories of Commitment of Traders Report as deliberate falsification of data ! ) and Harvey Organ Report for Saturday April 20 , 2013 , Silver Doctors , additional blog reports / items of note....

 Saturday gold reports and views ......

Keep in mind the US Treasury is on record as saying its has the power to seize your gold , silver and anything else - develop a strategy not just to buy and hold but also safeguard beyond prying hands your wealth / nest egg / survival assets......

Treasury claims power to seize gold and silver -- and everything else

Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2007-10-06 17:01. Section: Daily Dispatches | Confiscation

1p ET Saturday, October 6, 2007

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Because of recent inquiries to GATA about the possibility of an attempt by the U.S. Government to confiscate privately held gold and silver bullion and coins and shares in companies mining the precious metals, we're republishing here the correspondence between GATA and the U.S. Treasury Department on the subject in 2005.

The Treasury Department was surprisingly candid in that correspondence, asserting the U.S. Government's authority, in declared emergencies, to confiscate precious metals and to restrict ownership of mining shares -- and to confiscate and restrictevery other financial asset as well. So perhaps precious metals investors shouldn't feel too paranoid.

Confiscation has never seemed to GATA to be a serious or imminent threat. While the U.S. Government in 1933 did demand the exchange of circulating government-issued coins for paper money (proceeding to devalue the paper money after the gold was surrendered), that gold then was a huge part of the country's money supply, and amid the national economic collapse at that time the government could make a plausible complaint against "hoarding." There are no such circumstances today, gold no longer being in general circulation as currency. (Yes, we're working on that.)

But of course lately the arrogance and imperiousness of the U.S. government have far exceeded even the paranoia of precous metals investors. Certainly capital controls may be imposed in the United States in the next currency crisis, and it's not far from capital controls to even more brutal interventions in the economy.

GATA's correspondence with the Treasury Department on the subject of confiscation is appended, along with the preface that appeared with the correspondence when it first was published.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

12:11p ET Saturday, August 20, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. Government has the authority to prohibit the private possession of gold and silver coin and bullion by U.S. citizens during wartime, and, during wartime and declared emergencies, to freeze their ownership of shares of mining companies, the Treasury Department has told the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.

But gold and silver advocates shouldn't feel too picked on. For the U.S. Government claims the authority in declared emergencies to seize or freeze just about everything else that might be considered a financial instrument.

The Treasury Department's assertions came in a letter dated August 12 and written by Sean M. Thornton, chief counsel for the department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, who replied to questions GATA posed to the department in January. It took GATA six months and a little prodding to get answers from the Treasury, but the Treasury's reply, when it came, was remarkably comprehensive and candid.

The government's authority to interfere with the ownership of gold, silver, and mining shares arises, Thornton wrote, from the Trading With the Enemy Act, which became law in 1917 during World War I and applies during declared wars, and from 1977's International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which can be applied without declared wars.

While the Trading With the Enemy Act authorizes the government to interfere with the ownership of gold and silver particularly, it also applies to all forms of currency and all securities. So the Treasury official stressed that it could be applied not just to shares of gold and silver mining companies but to the shares of all companies in which there is a foreign ownership interest. Further, there is no requirement in the law that the targets of the government's interference must have some connection to the declared enemies of the United States, or, really, some connection to foreign ownership. Anything that can be construed as a financial instrument, no matter how innocently it has been used, is subject to seizure under the Trading With the Enemy Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Having just gone through a controversy about a Supreme Court decision about government's power of eminent domain, most Americans may be surprised to learn that the Trading With the Enemy Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could expropriate them instantly and far more broadly without any of the due process extended to parties in eminent domain cases. All that is needed is a presidential proclamation of an emergency of some kind -- and of course Americans lately have been living in a state of perpetual emergency.

When the Trading With the Enemy Act was passed in 1917, gold and silver formed part of the official currency of the United States and were essential to ordinary commerce, so perhaps an argument could be made then against "hoarding," even if "hoarding" could not be well defined. That is no longer the case; the United States has officially disavowed gold and silver as money and they no longer have a meaningful role in commerce. (GATA is working on that.) So gold and silver investors may want to ask their members of Congress to seek repeal of the statutes that give the government the authority to interfere with the private ownership of gold and silver, emergencies or not.

And ordinary citizens with no particular interest in gold and silver may want to ask their members of Congress to reconsider these statutes simply for being wildly tyrannical.

GATA's correspondence with the Treasury Department is appended.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

January 20, 2005

Roberta K. McInerney
Assistant General Counsel / Banking and Finance
Department of the Treasury
Washington, D.C. 20220

Dear Ms. Mclnerney:

Michael Kirk of U.S. Rep. John B. Larson's office has forwarded to me your letter to him of December 17, which answered my e-mailed inquiry to him about forcible redemption by the Treasury Department of gold and silver coins held by private citizens. You replied that a statute empowering the Treasury Department to do that, 12 U.S.C. Section 248(n), had been repealed.

But since reading your letter I have learned of a similar statute: Title 12. Chapter 2, Subchapter IV, Section 95a, which provides in part:

"During the time of war, the president may, through any agency that he may designate, and under such rules and regulations as he may prescribe, by means of instructions, licenses, or otherwise -- (A) investigate, regulate, or prohibit any transactions in foreign exchange, transfers of credit or payments between, by, through, or to any banking institution, and the importing, exporting, hoarding, melting, or earmarking of gold or silver coin or bullion, currency or securities. ..."

Section 95a further authorizes the president to "prevent" the "use" by U.S. citizens of "any property in which a foreign country or a national thereof has any interest."

These provisions are of the greatest concern to investors in gold and silver bullion, coins, and shares of gold and silver mining companies, and to those companies themselves. So the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee urgently requests that the Treasury Department explain how it construes these provisions. Particularly, we'd like to know:

* How does the Treasury Department construe "the time of war"? How can gold and silver investors know when the powers described in Section 95a are in operation or likely to come into operation? Are formal declarations of war by Congress required here, or lesser declarations, or none at all, but rather declarations made only by the president?

* How does the Treasury Department construe "hoarding"? Does it include the ordinary collection of gold and silver coins, numismatic or not, and bullion by U.S. citizens, businesses, and corporations, absent any collaboration with enemies of the United States?

* Does the Treasury Department construe Section 95a to empower the president to interfere with the ownership of shares in gold and silver mining companies merely because shares of such companies also might be owned by foreign nationals or foreign governments, at war with the United States or not? Under what circumstances would the president be so empowered?

In essence, we need to know whether Section 95a contemplates the instant destruction of gold and silver investors and the precious metals mining industry in the United States. So the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee asks the Treasury Department for a meeting with the officials who might become responsible for implementing Section 95a, at which we might discuss the concerns of precious metals investors and mining companies. Would you kindly forward our request to the appropriate people?

Thanks for your help.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

February 28, 2005

Mr. Chris Powell
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Manchester, Connecticut

Dear Mr. Powell:

Thank you for your follow up letter dated January 20, 2005, requesting information about how the Treasury Department interprets aspects of Title 12, Section 95a, of the U.S. Code.

Most of the questions you raise fall within the jurisdiction of Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Consequently, I wanted to let you know that I have forwarded your letter to OFAC's Office of the Chief Counsel for a response. The chief counsel's office will ensure that you receive a response to your letter.

If you have questions about the status of your request, please call Mark Monborne, OFAC's acting chief counsel.

Thank you for taking the time to write.

Sincerely,

Roberta K. McInerney
Assistant General Counsel (Banking and Finance)
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Washington, D.C. 20220

* * *

August 12, 2005

Mr. Chris Powell
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Manchester, Connecticut

Dear Mr. Powell:

Your letters to Roberta McInerney, assistant general counsel (banking and finance), dated January 20 and July 17, 2005, have been forwarded to me for response. I recently became the chief counsel (foreign assets control).

The U.S. Code provision that you reference, 12 U.S.C. Sec. 95a, is a duplicate codification of Section 5 of the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, 50 U.S.C. App. Secs. 1-44 ("TWEA"), with respect to which my office bears responsibility for interpreting.

As you may be aware, Congress enacted TWEA during World War I to prevent certain transactions that might be of advantage to an enemy during wartime. During World War II the Treasury Department implemented extensive punitive blockings of Axis assets and protective blockings of Allied assets.

In 1950 the United States imposed economic sanctions against the People's Republic of China as a result of the Korean emergency to prevent, among other things, Chinese acquisition of foreign exchange through transactions with Americans. The Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control ("OFAC") began enforcing foreign asset control programs in the 1950s. Today the only economic sanctions programs administered by OFAC under TWEA are with respect to Cuba, North Korea, and certain third-country transfers of sensitive materials.

You have asked how the Treasury Department construes the term "the time of war," which appears in section 5 (b) (1) of TWEA. Although TWEA does not include a definition of the term "during the time of war," it does include definitions for the terms "the beginning of the war" and "end of the war." The words "the beginning of the war" are deemed to mean "midnight ending the day on which Congress has declared or shall declare war or the existence of a state of war." The words "end of the war" are deemed to mean "the date of proclamation of exchange of ratifications of the treaty of peace, unless the president shall, by proclamation, declare a prior date."

Thus the phrase "during the time of war" would seem to cover the period between "the beginning of the war" and the "end of the war."

Since this period cannot come into existence without some form of congressional declaration, it would appear that TWEA -- with the exception of its present applicability to the Cuba, North Korea, and transaction control programs referenced above* -- applies only to situations involving a declared state of war. In exercising any of the specific powers available to him under TWEA during the time of war, the president would issue an executive order or other similar instrument generally made available through publication in the Federal Register.

(* -- From the early 1930s until 1977, when the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was enacted, TWEA applied not only in times of war but also in situations in which the president declared a peacetime national emergency. Pre-existing emergencies declared with respect to Cuba and North Korea and certain transaction controls were grandfathered, which explains why TWEA still serves as the basis for those sanctions programs, even though the United States is presently not in a state of war with respect to any of the affected countries.)

The construction of the term "hoarding," as used in section 5(b)(1) of TWEA, would depend on how the president chooses to exercise his authority with respect to hoarding in any particular instance.

In making any decisions under the authorities conferred by TWEA, the president would, of course, be taking steps to address threats to our national security during a time of war. In the past, the president has used TWEA or TWEA-like authorities to criminalize hoarding. See generally Bauer v. United States, 244 F.2d 794 (9th Cir. 1957). Today, however, such activity is not restricted under the only sanctions programs in effect pursuant to TWEA -- i.e., the Cuba, North Korea, and transactions-control programs.

If, during a time of war, the president expressly chose to restrict the hoarding of gold or silver, he could do so.

Among the many factors the president would likely consider before taking such action, however, is the fact that the U.S. Government now mints and issues gold and silver coins to meet public demand for both numismatic and investment purposes.

(See 31 U.S.C. § 5112(a)(7)-(10) & (e)-(i).)

You also have asked about the president's ability to "interfere with the ownership of shares in gold and silver mining companies merely because shares of such companies also might be owned by foreign nationals or foreign governments, at war with the United States or not."

Under TWEA during times of war -- and also under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 50 U.S.C. Secs. 1701-05 ("IEEPA") during peacetime national emergencies -- the president has broad powers to regulate property in which there exists a foreign interest. See TWEA § 5(b)(1)(B); IEEPA Secs. 1702 (a) (1) (B).

Consequently, the president may restrict shares in any company owned by foreign persons consistent with the purposes of any declared emergency.

In this respect, foreign-owned shares in gold and silver mining companies are no different from foreign-owned shares in companies in any other industry.

Finally, you raise concerns about the "instant destruction of gold and silver investors and the precious metals mining industry in the United States." In the establishment and implementation of sanctions, the U.S. Government is always mindful of the domestic impact of restrictions meant to serve national security and foreign policy purposes. Just as the U.S. Government has been mindful of the practical impact that sanctions have on various service and manufacturing industries, it would also be mindful of the potential impact of sanctions with respect to the markets and industries associated with precious metals.

I hope you find this letter instructive. Thank you for your interest. If I can be of any further assistance, please call me.

Sincerely,

Sean M. Thornton
Chief Counsel (Foreign Assets Control)
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Washington, D.C. 20220

http://silverdoctors.com/jim-sinclair-us-will-be-cyprussd-gold-headed-to-50000oz-heres-why/#more-25415

JIM SINCLAIR: US WILL BE CYPRUSS’D & GOLD HEADED TO $50,000/OZ! HERE’S WHY…

APRIL 20, 2013 BY THE DOC 29 COMMENTS

Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair shocked the precious metals community Friday by publicly stating that the US will be Cypruss’d, the current take-down in gold & silver is a last-ditch can kicking attempt by the bullion banking cartel, as that as a result of the coming derivatives collapse banking system bail-in, physical gold is headed to $50,000/oz! 
Today, Sinclair updated CIGA’s on the fundamentals behind his $50k gold prediction:

From Jim Sinclair:

I have a huge number of emails all asking why $50,000 gold. The answer is that the bullion market is in the process of emancipation of the gold price from the fractional paper gold system. The actualization of the real price of gold will be its emancipation from the prison of paper gold. The emancipation will occur because there is no gold whatsoever behind the deluge of paper we have just witnessed.

The central banks have most of their gold under lease. That gold was leased by gold banks and then sold for cash. That cash has been dispersed.

There are no funds to re-buy the gold that the leases call for upon maturity. The central banks cannot lease out any more gold. The entire fractional gold paper scam sits upon gold leases that are exploding right now.

The attempt to hide reality by the can kick of pummeling the gold market with paper is going to fail miserably.

Every time you buy one gold coin you consume more physical. It is the physical market that is going to emancipate gold. Gold then will be free to react to not only the debt due to foreigners, but all debt.

Please take your time to watch the Canadian documentary on gold here on JSMineset.com. It exposes the fragility of the fractional paper gold system that is now burning down because leases cannot be repaid to central banks.

The real gold show is only starting. For a great deal of what the Free-Golders think, they are right.

Sincerely,
Jim

Is the end-game of the paper manipulated futures markets being played out in front of our eyes?
The man who predicted gold would achieve $1650/oz in 2011 over a decade prior to the event sure seems to think so.
Imagine the potential for silver if gold were to achieve Sinclair’s $50k/oz target…

and.....

http://silverdoctors.com/10-signs-the-takedown-of-paper-gold-has-unleashed-an-unprecedented-global-run-on-physical-gold-and-silver/#more-25308

From The Economic Collapse Blog:

#1 According to Zero Hedge, the U.S. Mint set a new all-time record for the number of gold ounces sold on Wednesday…

According to today’s data from the US Mint, a record 63,500 ounces, or a whopping 2 tons, of gold were reported sold on April 17th alone, bringing the total sales for the month to a whopping 147,000 ounces or more than the previous two months combined with just half of the month gone.

#2 Precious metals dealers all over the United States are having a really hard time keeping up with demand right now.  According to Chris Martenson, many are warning customers to expect waiting times of five to six weeks at this point…

In the U.S., all of the dealers I talk to are reporting huge demand and brisk buying. Silver in any form is quite hard to come by unless you want to pay premiums of 20%+ per ounce above spot price. Delivery times are 5 to 6 weeks out now – that’s an unusual situation.  If this recent slam was designed to scare people away from gold, it did not have that desired outcome; in fact, just the opposite.

#3 Individual dealers all over the country are confirming that we are seeing a voracious appetite for precious metals at the moment.  For example, the following is what a spokesperson for JM Bullion had to say…

We still have certain things in stock, like 10 oz bars, while others, like Silver Eagles, are a bit of revolving inventory.

The shipments are going out as soon as inventory comes in.

Our main challenge right now is actually getting the silver into the boxes and shipped out – we have been experiencing astounding volume.

This appears to be a widespread phenomenon.  Just check out what other dealers are reporting…

“There has been a marked increase in demand since the plunge,” said Mark O’Byrne, executive director at Dublin-based investment and bullion specialist GoldCore, referring to the drop in gold prices seen Friday and Monday. Gold futures lost more than $200 an ounce, or over 13%, on those two days. They were at $1,392 an ounce, moving higher ahead of the close on Thursday.

GoldCore has seen more buying than selling on Wednesday and Thursday, with buy orders “lumpier and from high net worth clients, and with most of the selling in small orders of less than 50 ounces, said O’Byrne.

On Wednesday, David Beahm, executive vice president at Blanchard & Co., said his precious-metals investment firm has seen “2008-like demand” for gold since Monday.

#4 Large international banks are also experiencing tremendous demand for physical gold and silver by customers right now.  The following is what Keith Barron told King World News about what he is hearing…

At the Bank of Nova Scotia in Toronto the gold window has been absolutely swamped. I have confirmed there were people lined up in droves recently for multiple-hours at a time to buy gold and silver bars and coins….

I then confirmed with UBS today in Zurich, Switzerland, that they are experiencing exactly the same thing. They told me people are waiting in long lines for bullion related bars and coins. The physical market is incredibly tight, and there is a huge buying opportunity right here.

The damage in gold will not be long-term because physical supply is already drying up. Asian countries have been aggressively buying gold. This really is an unprecedented opportunity for investors. This takedown in the metals has created incredible demand for both gold and silver, and anyone who wants to unload dollars or euros and put them into gold because they don’t trust the currency, now is the time to do it.

#5 The demand for physical gold and silver is heating up over in Europe as well.  For example, the following is from anemergency message posted on the website of a precious metals dealer in the UK…

Due to the unprecedented demand triggered by the recent fall in the Gold Price we are currently not able to guarantee Next Day Delivery of orders.

We anticipate that all orders will be delivered within 7 days of receipt by us.

Whilst we appreciate that these delays are frustrating for our customers we would like to stress that all accepted orders are guaranteed at the order price and will be dispatched as soon as possible.

It is necessary for all of our staff to be utilised in fulfilling orders and we ask for your cooperation by not calling us to query delivery times. If you do need to contact us, please do so by e-mail and we will endeavour to respond within 48hrs.

#6 On the other side of the globe, demand for precious metals is skyrocketing as well.  According to Bloomberg, people are “running through the gate” to get gold in Australia…

Gold sales from Australia’s Perth Mint, which refines nearly all of the nation’s bullion, surged after prices plunged, adding to signs that the metal’s slump to a two-year low is spurring increased demand.

“The volume of business that we’re putting through is way in excess of double what we did last week,” Treasurer Nigel Moffatt said by phone, without giving precise figures. “There’s been people running through the gate.”

#7 Reuters is reporting that customers are waiting for up to three hours to buy gold in Japan…

A week ago, as the yen-denominated price neared a new peak, jewelry stores and gold merchants across Japan saw long lines of mostly older Japanese looking to cash in on unwanted jewelry and other items that they had held for years.

But on Tuesday, buyers outnumbered sellers by a wide margin. At Ginza Tanaka, the headquarters shop of Tanaka Holdings, gold buyers waited for as long as three hours for a chance to complete a transaction.

#8 According to a Chinese article quoted by the Blaze, there is a mad rush to buy gold in China right now…

People have to rush to buy gold … gold bullion out of stock yesterday, investors yesterday to spend as much as 600 million yuan to buy 20 kilograms of gold bars

The mad pursuit gold insufficiency is not just a game for the rich. Yesterday, the Yangcheng Evening News reporter learned from the East flowers to Bay store, many growers, pork traffickers, fishmonger recently put down his job went straight to the mall to buy gold.

#9 According to Reuters, dealers in Singapore are having significant trouble finding enough of a supply to keep up with the intense demand for gold that has erupted this week…

“People are actually buying everything, gold bars, gold coins. People are rushing to get a hand on it. We have a problem meeting the demand because we are unable to get new supply,” said Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central Pte Ltd in Singapore.

#10 Bloomberg is reporting that over in India people are “flocking to stores” to purchase gold jewelry and coins…

Gold buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, are flocking to stores to buy jewelry and coins, betting a selloff that plunged bullion to a two-year low may be overdone.

“My daughter is just six months old, but I think it is never too early to buy gold,” said Sharmila Shirodkar, a 28- year-old housewife, while displaying a new pair of earrings she bought from a store in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazaar. “I had been asking my husband every day if prices will go down more. I couldn’t wait anymore.”

If the big banks were trying to scare people away from gold and silver by crashing paper prices for those metals then they have utterly failed.

Instead of being frightened away, the global appetite for physical gold and silver is now more voracious than ever.

If the prices for gold and silver stay this low, we are eventually going to start seeing some very serious shortages in the marketplace.

And once reports of shortages of the actual physical metals become widely circulated, it will cause an “adjustment” in the marketplace that will shock everyone.

So hold on to your hats.  We are entering a period of time when there will be unprecedented volatility for the prices of precious metals.  It will be quite a roller coaster ride, but if you can handle the ups and downs it will be worth it in the end.

and....

If we don't have an economic recovery in the US , Europe and Japan despite massive QE , how bad will the collapse be when these programs are forcibly stopped by markets ( buyer strike for sovereign debt )  ?  Check the update from Eric Sprott below !

Apr 20 Precious Metals Update  Eric Sprott Sprott   audio

After a week like this, we heartily recommend all our listeners and readers make the most of the weekend.  Relax.  Get some fresh air.  Spend time with those you love.  It will recharge your batteries and clear the mind.  Meanwhile, feel free to grab your favorite beverage, sit back and click the YouTube play button below.  Thanks for tuning in.

Is the goal getting silver to 18 ? Renewed shorts after last Tuesday seem to indicate 22.50 was not the target ...

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-us-economy-is-in-trouble.html

FRIDAY, APRIL 19, 2013

The U.S. Economy Is In Trouble

As a follow-up to yesterday's post about the massive spike in the demand for physical gold and silver since the price hit, I wanted post some more evidence.  This is from an Arab newspaper about the spike in demand over in Saudi Arabia:

The crash in the prices of the yellow metal has sparked off a gold rush across Saudi Arabia.  In the last three days, gold souks in the Kingdom have come alive with buyers flocking to cash in on the sharp drop in gold prices. Most of the shop owners in the gold souk in Kandra said that their businesses have increased 50 percent in the last three days, whereas those in Balad said sales of 22-carat had gone up by more than 75 per cent and were expected to rise further. LINK

Here's the headline from a Reuters article:   Slump in gold price releases years of pent-up retail demand  LINK   And here's an accounting from a colleague of mine who operates a cash-for-gold business in Florida and deals with one of the biggest coin dealers in Florida:

He's got nada.  A guy came in who had ordered and fixed the price on 300 silver eagles last week before the crash and my dealer couldn't tell him when he might get them.  My partner ordered three monster boxes last week and paid for them.  This week he was told delivery is at least 60 days out - and this dealer is a "hitter."

As I've told people who have asked me how long before the next move higher begins, no one can say for sure.  But if you run into people who tell you the bull market in gold/silver is over, ask them to sell you some 1 oz. gold/silver eagles.  And if they don't have any, ask them to go find some let you know where they can offer them to you.  Talk is cheap.  Talk does not make markets.

Markets define "price" when a buyer and seller agree on a price and then make the exchange.  Paper markets like the Comex do not define price except in the short run.  All a paper futures contract and all an ETF represents is a "promise" to deliver something down the road if you put up the money now.  The market is not defined until the promised commodity paid for up front is physically delivered.  Given what we know about how corrupt banks are and the Government's unwillingness to prosecute this corruption (see Eric Holder's statement to Congress about a month ago), I would not trust the Comex banks or any of the ETF custodians (except Sprott) to make good on that "promise."

As for the economy, I wrote a piece yesterday for Seeking Alpha about more evidence I was seeing that the economy is headed quickly in the wrong direction:

About a week ago I wrote an article in which I postulated that, based on some recent company and economic reports, the economy is in worse condition than is being reported by the mainstream media and Wall Street.

You can read the entire article which includes hard data here:  The Economy Is In Trouble

After my article was written, the Philadelphia Fed released its manufacturing/index and it came in much lower than expected.  The employment sub-index went negative. In addition the leading indicators index was published by The Conference Board (formerly published by the Commerce Department) and it was -.1 vs the +.2% expected.   Also, the Fed's Balance sheet was released and it showed a $67 billion jump in size vs $12 billion the week before.  What's the Fed worried about if it needs to print money like this?

And today it looks like the Dell leveraged buyout deal may be falling through, as one of the big sponsors is worried about PC sales.  All the above tells me the U.S. economy is in trouble.  There's just no way the Government can cut back on spending, which means the debt ceiling debate that pops up in May will likely entail another round of kicking the can down the road, which means even more Treasury debt issuance to finance the deficit spending and even more money printing by the Fed.

and.....

http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2013/04/jim-willie-golden-jackass-information.html

Jim Willie - Golden Jackass Information from his April Hat Trick Letter: Physical Gold Premiums will be $500 or more in the near future, Silver 40%. Dealers Sold OUT Now

Jim Willie, The Golden Jackass and writer of the Hat Trick letter is allowing me to publish a little of his April subscriber Hat Trick Letter.

Jim emailed me this information today along with an article (and link) about physical gold and silver being bought out and major dealers do not have any for sale now.

Here are a few paragraphs (with his permission of publishing here) from Jim's April Hat Trick Letter for subscribers only:

_______________________________________________________________________________

PREMIUMS FOR GOLD PURCHASES WILL RISE QUICKLY. THE PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE GOLD PREMIUM WILL EVENTUALLY BE $500 TO $600 PER OZ, LIKE IN A COUPLE MONTHS, MAYBE A LITTLE LONGER.THE DIVERGENCE WILL BE VISIBLE IN REALTIME FOR GOLD, BUT FOR SILVER IT IS ALREADY 40%. PUBLIC DEFIANCE WILL RISE AGAINST THE BANKERS, LIKE WITH PREMIUMS IMPOSED. WATCH FOR LAWSUITS RELATED TO THE ALLOCATED GOLD ACCOUNTS. WATCH THE BAFIN INVESTIGATION AGAINST DEUTSCHE BANK, WHERE OFFICIALS ARE SIGNING IN A CHORUS. $$$

A client close to the gold trade in Dubai United Arab Emirates has offered to provide a regular update on the DBX gold price. My hope is to be updated almost daily, but that is asking too much, since he is busy running an office. The premium reading is like an EKG for a man suffering a heart attack with monitors attached. He wrote on Friday and again on Saturday, shooting updates. He wrote, "No more physical Au available in Dubai. The big refineries tell people they might be able to fill orders for 100 kg bars in a week or two, but they might not be bound to the screen price. Premium now $18 over spot Gold price and rising (on Friday). We shall see $500 over spot not before long. Investment grade Ag is already trading at 40% over spot if you want physical in volume. Saturday here in DXB and the premium is now $25. There is no physical anywhere. Now the premium is $30 (one hour later)." 

For newbies, Au means Gold and Ag means Silver. Some simple math permits one to conclude that a $500 premium could arrive in fifty days if it comes at $10 per day. My belief is that the full premium will come more quickly, as the jumps will tend not to be linear. The traders in control of scarce inventory will sense the injustice and smell the destination of a true valid Gold price!!

The defiance against the criminal power jockey bankers will be visible in the open very soon, with public statements and calls for lawsuits and prosecution. Worse, the events and premium rise will be accompanied by direct formal action taken against thefts of Allocated Gold Accounts. Watch the German story, since the political response by their Parliament has begun for repatriation of their national account held (sold) by the New York Fed. The latest chink in the armor is a BAFIN investigation against Deutsche Bank in Germany. Several high level officials wish to avoid prison time, which motivates them to sing in a chorus tune. They are providing information on the $79 trillion in D-Bank derivatives, which permitted them to do illicit balance sheet extensions in the past. It is all tied to gold and the malfeasance behind the gold account management.

_________________________________________________________________________

Jim had sent me the below about physical demand of metals being off the chart.  

PHYSICAL DEMAND OFF THE CHARTS!

We are in the midst of experiencing two of the most radical weeks in the history of the precious metals markets. Paper prices for gold and silver, those prices determined by the fraudulently managed commodities exchanges (namely the COMEX and the London Bullion Marketing Association – LBMA) and regulated by the equally corrupt and complicit Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), have been driven into the basement.
Simultaneously, the available physical supplies of precious metals, especially silver, have suddenly nearly disappeared. Some of the most extreme shortages for silver in memory have caused premiums for all types of bullion and coins to skyrocket. Nearly all major wholesalers in the United States, and for that matter the world, are completely out of stock for smaller denominated silver rounds and bars, with no projected delivery dates in sight. This phenomenon is a worldwide event.
Here is a brief overview of the extraordinary world events highlighting the tremendous surge in precious metals demand.
India
Last week, the highly reputable Business Standard of India reported that there are “acute” shortages of gold in southern India. Reports the Standard, “Major jewelry manufacturing centers in southern India are facing an acute shortage of gold ahead of the wedding season despite the industry’s claim to have seen a record import of the yellow metal last financial year.”
Thailand
US ex-patriots living in Bangkok are reporting that gold dealers in that city are completely out of bullion products other than minor amounts of jewelry. These reports are stating that there is not one ounce of gold bullion available for sale! Dealers are taking orders but these are limited to 2.5 ounces per person.
China
Gold demand is surging. China’s domestic gold consumption is outpacing its internal production 5.5 to 1. China’s mining output was up 5.8% in 2011 but its domestic consumption of the yellow metal increased by 33%.
Hong Kong
Reports from Hong Kong have seen line-ups out the doors of precious metals dealers. Dealers are reporting massive buying with almost zero selling. Some dealers are reporting that they have sold more gold in one day than they normally do in three months with walk-up clients buying over a million dollars in gold with cash and taking it out the doors in gym bags!
Europe
Dutch Bank Shuts Down Gold Deliveries
Possible major shortages of its clients’ deliverable gold has forced Dutch megabank ABN Amro last month to dramatically change its custodian rules. ABN Amro announced March 24th that it “will no longer allow physical delivery.” Hysterically, ABN Amro account managers attempted to soothe their clients by saying, “You need to do nothing” as “we have your investments in precious metals.”
Major German Auto Manufacturer Hoarding Silver
It is being reported from Switzerland that a world famous German automaker is now resorting to storing thousands of pounds of .999 fine silver for perceived future shortages. The company’s purchasing manager has been quoted saying, “For some metals, like silver, there’s no such thing ‘just in time’ delivery anymore.” It has further been reported that this company is buying every available ounce it can in preparation for severe world shortages.
Switzerland to Buy a Stunning 1,000 Tons of Physical Gold?
A political movement inside Switzerland has acquired one hundred thousand signatures towards new legislation to eliminate future gold sales by the Swiss National Bank as well as to require the Swiss government to buy back immediately one thousand tons of gold that it already sold. If this becomes law, it will have a significant impact on tightening world gold supplies.
United States
16% of US Annual Silver Production Vaporized in Mine Collapse
A massive landslide at Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine in Utah, on April 12, 2013, has wiped out five million ounces of annual silver production and five hundred thousand ounces of gold production. Taking into account that the US Treasury requires all US Eagles be manufactured exclusively with US mined gold and silver, the extreme shortages of these products can only increase.
US Mint Reports Massive Silver Sales
The US Mint reported that it has sold one 1.645 million ounces of Silver Eagles through the first six business days in April, bringing its 2013 total to an extraordinary 15.868 million ounces this year. This is on pace to completely crush the current annual record. Because of unprecedented demand, all dealers are on very tight allocations with almost all retailers as well as major wholesalers completely out of stock. Earliest expected shipments are at least 4 – 6 weeks out!
US Mint Gold Sales Setting Monthly Records
In April 2012, the US Mint sold 20,000 ounces of gold bullion coins. As of April 16th this year, the US Mint has sold over 50,000 ounces of gold and the month is only half over!!
Precious Metals Sell/Buy Ratio Going Hyperbolic
An unofficial but reputable survey of US bullion wholesalers is reporting a sales to buy ratio over 50 to 1. There are no forecasts for this to ease any time soon.
Huge Wholesale Premium Increases
Unprecedented shortages in silver have resulted in huge premium increases for silver dealers at all levels. Premiums for US Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs have jumped $1 in the last week.
Premiums for “junk silver” are completely off the charts. It has been reported to us that buyers in areas such as northern New Jersey are paying an incredible $9 an ounce over spot for pre-1965 US silver coins. As far as we know, this may be the highest in history. Wholesale premiums for “junk silver” have risen 2,000 percent in the last six months. Most importantly, there is almost none to be found anywhere. Some dealers are taking orders with three months waiting time.
Zero Inventories at Major Private US Mints
Two of the largest silver bullion fabricators in North America, A-Mark Precious Metals of Santa Monica, California, and the NTR Bullion Group of Dallas, Texas, have just notified their retail dealers that they have suspended sales of most of their silver products. A-Mark has announced that it is ceasing taking orders for all its one ounce, ten ounce, and one hundred ounce rounds and bars. There is no projected date for resumption of sales!
Retail Coin Stores Completely Out of New Stock
It is being reported to us that the majority of local retail coin dealers are entirely out of stock of any silver products. Our unofficial surveys reveal almost no customers selling where buying requests are reaching a frenzied level. The silver shortage situation is fast approaching the extreme level currently experienced in ammunition sales. Basically, neither can be found!
Ladies and gentlemen, it is becoming patently obvious that world citizens are waking up fast to the inherent risks of fractional reserve private central banking, and the extreme threat that burgeoning government debt means for them. Wise people everywhere are no longer looking for yield but are seeking safety in ever increasing numbers. And, they are looking for it hard and fast. What they are finding is the ultimate safety for wealth protection, namely, gold and silver.

As I have stated before, Jim gives real information that everyone needs to know about what is really happening in the physical world of Gold and Silver.   

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/david-baker-gold-bear-market...or-physical-gold-discount-sale/

David Baker: Gold Bear Market…or Physical Gold Discount Sale?

Apr
20

• Yesterday in Gold and Silver
• Critical Reads
• The Funnies
• The Wrap

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"There is a major disconnect between the price of the physical precious metals and the paper precious metals."

¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD & SILVER

The sudden twenty-five dollar price spike in gold around 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...along with the commensurate price spikes in the other three precious metals...was the only price activity of note everywhere on Planet Earth on Friday.

After that spike, the gold price slowly got sold off...and shortly before the 1:30 p.m. Comex close in New York, the price was back to where it had closed at on Thursday afternoon.  However, the subsequent rally after that, put the gold price firmly back in the black, with gold finally closing above the $1,400 spot price mark.

Gold closed the week at $1,406.50 spot...up $14.40 from Thursday's close. Gold volumes were way up there once again, this time it was 207,000 contracts.

The silver price action was very similar, but the intraday price move showed more 'volatility' than did gold...almost a dollar from high tick to low tick.

The low of the day [$22.83 spot] came at the 1:25 p.m. Comex close...which is five minutes sooner than the Comex close for gold.  After that, silver rallied as well, closing the day at 23.29...up a penny on the day...and right in the 3 cent gap between Wednesday's closing price and Thursday's closing price...and only 5 cents below Monday's closing price.  Whoever was riding shotgun over the silver price must have nothing better to do at the end of the trading day.

Silver's net volume was pretty decent as well...around 37,000 contracts.

The dollar index closed in New York late Thursday afternoon at 82.55...and then didn't do much until 8:00 a.m. in New York.  The dollar had a small double bottom between then and around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time...and then a rally of sorts developed, which sort of faded in the last thirty minutes of the trading day.  The index closed at 82.77...up 22 basis points on the day.

*    *    *   

The CME's Daily Delivery Report for Friday showed that 42 gold and 10 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday...and with the exception of a handful of contracts issued by Marex in both metals...it was all "the usual suspects" as short/issuers and long/stoppers.  The link to yesterday'sIssuers and Stoppers Report is here.

The withdrawals from GLD just don't stop, as an authorized participant withdrew another 319,167 troy ounces yesterday.  And as of 11:55 p.m. Eastern time yesterday evening, there were no reported withdrawals from SLV.

The U.S. Mint had another sales report yesterday.  They sold 14,500 ounces of gold eagles...and 2,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.  No silver eagles were reported sold.  Month-to-date the mint has sold 167,500 ounces of gold eagles...21,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,387,000 silver eagles.  Based on these sales the silver/gold sales ratio for the month so far is only around 13 to 1.

I would guess the ratio is low for three possible reasons, a] they aren't meeting their production quota on silver eagles, and b] in lieu of not having any silver eagles to buy, customers are buying gold instead, and c] I would guess that a large portion of the gold sales from this month went overseas...especially the two tonnes of gold eagles that were reported sold on one day earlier this week.

Thursday was another big day over at the Comex-approved depositories.  They reported receiving 1,807,345 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 904,002 troy ounces out the door.  It was another monster week for in/out movement at these depositories...and I'm sure Ted Butler will have more to say in his weekly commentary to his paying subscribers later today. The link to yesterday's activity is here.

Well, I took one look at the numbers in yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report and knew immediately they weren't right.  They weren't even close to what they should have been...in either silver, copper, or gold.  Even Ted had to admit that he didn't know what to make of them.  But he did point out that the numbers in the Nonreportable category appeared to be what one might expect considering the price action of the reporting week...and I agreed.

But the numbers that appeared in the Non-Commercial and Commercial categories were simply not believable...and unless it was a just huge reporting mistake, which they'll correct on Monday, it's my belief that the report has been tampered with.  Ted certainly didn't rule that out, but was obviously not happy that it might have come to this...and I'll be more than interested in what he has to say about it later today. But if you wish to look them over, the link to the legacy COT report ishere...and I'll have more to say about this in Tuesday's column.

Yesterday was the biggest sales day in the bullion store's history, even though we only had silver maple leafs and 100 oz. silver bars to sell...as these are the only two items that we were able to order and get delivery of in a timely manner.  Over-the-counter sales were decent, but it was the huge order-in sales that were the standout.

Then at 2:00 p.m. local time, our supplier called us to say that silver maple leafs were no longer available...and from that point on, we only were selling the 100 ounce bars.  But faced with buying that large a bar, or walking away empty handed, our customers bought them like they were party favours!  Even when silver was approaching $50 the ounce back in April 2011, we've never had a week like we've had this past week.  The psychology of the buyer today is totally different from what they were thinking two years ago.  Back then they were buying to [hopefully] make a quick buck...now it's the Cyprus thingy, no interest on bank deposits, along with the new 'bail in' provisions for Canada's 'too big to fail' banks that showed up in Canada's recent budget.  The people are finally starting to wake up...and not just in this country.

Here's an e-mail sent to a friend of Casey Research's own Dennis Miller earlier this week...and I can tell you that it's already out of date, because NTR isn't taking orders for anything now, either.

Yesterday, my good friend Richard Nachbar sent me the chart posted below, which updates the wholesale premiums bid by dealers for 90% U.S. silver coinage.  As you can tell, it's taken quite a jump in the last week.  [Richard, keep these Friday reports coming!  Thanks in advance. - Ed]

Since their normal update day...the 20th of the month, falls on a Saturday...The Central Bank of the Russian Federation updated their website with their March numbers on Friday...and it showed that they purchased another 200,000 troy ounces of gold for their reserves, which now sit at 31.6 million ounces...very close to the 1,000 tonne mark.  Nick Laird's most excellent chart below reflects that change.

(Click on image to enlarge)

non redundant news and views....

Doug Noland: Fault Lines

Over the years, I’ve highlighted the thinking of the old codgers (including Andrew Mellon) in the late-twenties that had witnessed enough boom and bust cycles during their lifetimes to confidently warn of impending collapse. They were convinced that attempts by our central bank to sustain a protracted inflationary boom (that commenced with the “Great War”) would risk destroying both the economy and the Credit system. These are Dr. Bernanke’s disdained “Bubble poppers.”

Well, we’ve been witnessing similar dynamics in real time. The more “money” central banks inject into the global system, the more this liquidity inflates and distorts securities markets. The greater the stimulus employed to combat deflation risk, the more the over- and mal-investment, especially in China and Asia. The more aggressively activist central banks work to inflate liquidity and market levels, the more encompassing the pool of global speculative finance working to profit from desperate policy measures. The more intensively policymakers in the U.S., Europe, Japan, China and elsewhere work to sustain (“terminal”) late-cycle global Credit excess, the more prominent the inequitable redistribution of wealth to a relatively small group of beneficiaries. We’re deeply into the phase where massive liquidity injections receive little real economy bang for the buck.

Here's Doug's weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin.  It was posted on theprudentbear.com Internet site last evening...and it's always a must read in my books.  I thank reader U.D. for sending it.

Pier Luigi Bersani resignation plunges Italian politics into further chaos

The chaos gripping Italian politics deepened on Friday night as centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani announced his imminent resignation, lashing out at a rebellion which saw off both his candidates for president and exposed the deep divides within his party.

An angry and bitter Bersani told MPs he would stand down as leader of the Democratic party (PD) as soon as parliament managed to elect a new head of state – a contest that is crucial in deciding how and if Italy can extract itself from political gridlock.

The dramatic announcement came after the two men the PD head had backed for president – former union leader Franco Marini and two-time prime minister Romano Prodi – failed to attract the necessary number of votes in ballots.

This story appeared in The Guardian shortly after midnight this morning British Summer Time...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.

Yen Declines as G-20 Gives Japan Leeway on Stimulus; Pound Falls

The yen fell for a fourth day against the dollar after the Group of 20 gave Japan leeway to reflate its economy by indicating the nation’s monetary stimulus plan doesn’t contravene a pact to avoid currency devaluations.

Japan’s currency dropped at least 1 percent versus all of its 16 most-traded peers amid bets on more of the quantitative- easing stimulus from the Bank of Japan (8301) that has helped the currency slide to a four-year low versus the greenback. Sterling extended a drop versus the greenback after Fitch Ratings cut the U.K.’s credit grade by one level. South Korea’s won climbed.

“G-20 and the BOJ have made it very clear to the financial community that Japan has the green light regarding continued QE and resulting yen weakness,” Douglas Borthwick, a managing director and head of foreign exchange at Chapdelaine FX in New York, wrote today in a client note. “The global hope is that inflation will drive growth in Japan, finally awakening this sleeping giant. Yen weakness is now a given; the only uncertainty is the pace at which this unfolds.”

This Bloomberg article was posted on their website mid-afternoon on Friday MDT...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for her first story of the day.

Five King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

The first interview is with hedge fund manager William Kaye...and it's headlined "Central Planners Risk Having All Hell Break Loose Here".  The second blog is with Jim Sinclair.  It bears the title "The U.S. Will Be Cyprused and We Will See $50,000 Gold".  And lastly is this commentary fromEgon von Greyerz...and it's entitled "Refiners Can't Keep Up With Massive Global Gold Demand".  The first audio interview is with Nigel Farage...and the second audio interview is with Rick Rule.

Gold shops shuttered on volatility

Several gold shops have decided to close temporarily, saying it would be their only chance to stem further losses after the price of gold sunk to a two-year low. The bearish trend is set to continue.

The owner of Aurora Gold shop on Sukhumvit Soi 103 said she decided to close shop yesterday and has yet to decide when to resume business.

"I took this chance to make minor renovations instead of opening the store only to lose more cash. Since the week began, the sharp fall in gold prices prompted people to rush to the shop to buy gold. Our gold bullion is out of stock and we are not going to place orders until the global prices settle," she said.

Normally, gold bullion buyers have to pay first and wait for a week to receive the products, but now demand has shot up and there is no guarantee how long they have to wait.

This article appeared in the Bangkok Post yesterday...and it's courtesy of Dan Alexander via Ted Butler.

Shortage of gold bars and coins in Dubai, says World Gold Council

The World Gold Council, which has been tracking the global gold market pattern, has found that there is a shortage for bars and coins in Dubai which is creating a supply shortage.

Aram Shishmanian, CEO, World Gold Council: "It has become increasingly clear over the course of the past week that the fall in the gold price was triggered by speculative traders operating in the futures markets. Their short-term view of generating a trading profit is in stark contrast to the views of long term investors in gold, as evidenced by the massive wave of physical gold buying that began over the weekend and accelerated following Monday's further decline.

The surge in gold purchases is spanning markets from India and China to the US, Japan and Europe. Buyers are viewing this as an opportunity to purchase gold at prices not seen in the past couple of years."

This story appeared on The Economic Times of India website during the lunch hour IST yesterday...and it's courtesy of U.A.E. reader Laurent-Patrick Gally.

Demand for Krugerrands skyrockets

The demand for Krugerrands has skyrocketed during the past week as investors tried to benefit from the weaker gold price.

Glenn Schoeman, chief executive officer of Gold Reef City Mint and chairman of the South African Numismatic Dealers (SAAND) also indicated to Moneyweb that the dramatic drop in the gold price during the past week has sparked off a “massive, massive buying spree”.

Schoeman says Gold Reef City Mint’s Krugerrand manufacturer – Rand Refinery – is currently unable to meet the demand for the coin.

“Quite honestly the supply does not even meet it (the demand) by any manner or means,” he says.

This moneyweb.za.com article from yesterday was picked up by the mineweb.comInternet site...and falls into the must read category.  I thank Ulrike Marx for her second offering in today's column.

Chinese Gold Exchange Sold Out - Begins Importing From Switzerland

Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and it’s President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today.  Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical gold and silver.

While I [Michael Krieger] tend to be skeptical when I hear about silver shortages since these reports have been so exaggerated in the past, the lack of silver coin availability and premiums are the most extreme I have seen since the financial and economic meltdown of 2008.  Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.

This short Zero Hedge article from early yesterday afternoon has a short 1:44 minute video clip embedded in it...and I thank Matthew Nel for sending it along.

Sprott's Thoughts: Gold Bear Market or Physical Gold Discount Sale??

Back in 1980, just as the gold price blasted upwards past $800/oz, buyers reportedly lined up in droves at various bullion dealers to participate in the rally. Investment analyst Jay Taylor writes, “I remember 1980… there was panic buying of gold by people in the streets of New York City. They were lined up around the block to buy gold and Krugerrands at that time.” That flurry of buying ended up representing a classic top. As gold failed to move higher, the speculative frenzy soon reversed into a despondency that dragged gold into a twenty year bear cycle. For those investors who bought at the top, it was a hard lesson learned.

Fast forward to today, and in the days that have followed this past Friday’s (and Monday’s) incredible gold price smash, the strangest thing has happened: physical buyers have come out in droves, but this time they’re buying immediately following an unprecedented $200 price decline.

We still don’t know what entity chose to crush the gold price with a 400 tonne sell order last Friday. Certainly no rational group would dump that much paper gold on the market without a pre-established desire to torpedo the gold price. Their efforts clearly worked in the short-term, but the reaction from physical buyers strongly indicates an official bifurcation between physical metals investors and the exchange-oriented investors who trade gold through financial products.

The days to come will prove if this surge in physical demand is an aberration, or the beginning of a new chapter for the physical gold market. If it represents the latter, precious metals investors may be wise to ignore the ‘paper’ price of gold altogether. The line-ups in 1980 represented the top of the gold bull market. But what do line-ups for gold represent when the price has already fallen 30% from its all-time high? That’s the question, and we’re guessing it means this current gold bull market isn’t close to being over.

This most excellent must read article by David Baker was posted on thesprottgroup.com Internet site yesterday...and if I had to pick just one story for you to read today, this would be it.

¤ THE WRAP

For now, all we can conclude is this: There is definitely a striking psychological disconnect growing between the buyers of physical gold and silver, and the financial community that trades precious metals through ETF’s and futures contracts.  While the latter have ostensibly turned their backs on gold (see the plethora of negative sentiment expressed by various pundits over the past three days), the former group has been spurred into action as if they know something the other group does not. Certainly we wouldn’t expect individuals to be buying these metals if they believed the price was going to drop further, or perhaps they don’t care either way and simply want to own something tangible. Nonetheless, it is a wholly peculiar phenomenon, and it is definitely not the same investment behaviour we have seen before. - David Baker, Sprott Asset Management...19 April 2013

Today's pop 'blast from the past' was the first number one hit of The Association the year I graduated from high school in 1966.  You'll know it instantly...and the link is here.

The classical offering today is a bit more obscure, but any Jean Sibelius fan will know it instantly.  It's a short piece entitled "Valse triste, Op. 44"...and the link is here.  This is a particularly stunning performance...and it's just too bad that the youtube.com audio track is not up to producing the full fidelity of the orchestra.

I'm not sure what, if anything, should be read into yesterday's price action in all the precious metals, but I have to agree totally with what David Baker over at Sprott had to say in the above quote...and that there is a major disconnect between the price of the physical precious metals and the paper precious metals. It's a situation that remains unresolved, but I doubt very much that it will remain that way for long.

Like David, I was somewhat taken aback by the mind set of the buyers that have been showing up at the bullion store all week.  Things really are different this time...and if the buyers are out in force on a $200 price decline, one can only imagine what the buying frenzy will be like as the precious metals being their inevitable rallies back to new highs...especially in silver.

I'm sure that "the powers that be" are just as surprised, as they certainly would have been caught even more off-guard than we were...and how this resolves itself in the days and weeks ahead will be interesting to watch.  This is not just a North American phenomenon...it's world-wide...and amazing to read about in the stories posted in today's column.

It's still my opinion that somewhere in the not-too-distant future, we'll see a shockingly high price for all the precious metals...but whether it's by edict, or market action, is still unknown.

The other real concern I have is what appears [at least to me] to be the deliberate falsification of data in the Non-Commercial and Commercial categories of yesterday's Commitment of Traders Report.  But I will give the CFTC the benefit of the doubt until Tuesday to see if they correct their figures, because what is posted in that report, just cannot be...considering the price action on Friday of last week and Monday of this week.

Before heading off to bed, here's one last chart from Nick Laird...and it's the usual "Total PMs Pool" graph that I post every week that shows the amounts and dollar values of all known precious metals in all known depositories.  The value figure has taken a huge hit...but the total ounces have barely moved.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Looking at the world today, I'm sure not looking forward to the 'end of all things' when that day finally does arrive...and the closer we get, the worse it looks.  And as I've said before, I hope we've done enough advance preparation that we survive it.

I leave you on that cheery note...and I'll see you on Tuesday.

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Saturday, April 20, 2013

gold rises/silver falls/silver OI remains elevated/The CBC documentary on gold/Fitch lowers credit rating on the UK/Argentina in full revolt as government demands control of the courts/

Good morning  Ladies and Gentlemen:

 
Gold closed up $3.30 to $1395.30 (comex closing time).  Silver fell by 28 cents  to $22.96 (comex closing time). 

In the access market at 5 pm gold and silver reversed course and rocketed northbound:

gold: $1406.50
silver: $23.29


At the comex, the open interest in silver fell slightly to 153,193 contracts but still is  holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract rose by a tiny 1464 contracts to 413,814. Generally, I would say that 390,000 OI would be rock bottom for gold but in this environment anything goes.  The total amount of gold ounces standing for April fell slightly to 34.32 tonnes but silver  had an increase to 3.735 million oz standing.

In physical news, as promised, I will provide for you the tape on the manipulation of gold, a documentary produced by Canada's CBC.  I will provide some details on the background material

The huge Chinese gold exchange Society has run out of gold and are now seeking gold from Switzerland and London. 

In paper news, Fitch has just lowered the credit rating on the UK to AA plus from AAA.

Argentina is in revolt as Cristina Fernandez has now demanded control of the judicial system.  If they confiscate Argentinian's citizens assets they have no recourse to the courts. They are now in full revolt


  
 We will go over these and other stories but first.........................

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today:


The total gold comex open interest rose by 1464 contracts on Friday  from  412,350  up  to 413,814,  with gold rising by $3.00 on Thursday.  The front April OI fell by 18 contracts from 638 down to 620. We had 0 notices filed on Thursday so we lost 18 contracts or 1800  gold oz will not be standing for the April gold contract month. The next non active contract month is May and here the OI rose by 10 contracts to 1439. The next big contract month is June and here the OI fell by 1848 contracts from 254,472 down to 252,624.  The estimated volume on Friday was huge at 187,311 or 18.73 million oz.  The world produces around 70 million oz ex China ex Russia.  Thus Friday's volume equates to around 26% of global annual production. The confirmed volume on Thursday was also huge at 263,967 (approx 821 tonnes of gold). 

The total silver comex OI  fell again by  1447 contracts from 154,640 down to 153,193. It still looks like we still have some  stoic longs who seem impervious to pain. The front non active delivery month of April saw its OI fall by 1 contract from 31 down to 30 . We had 1 delivery notice filed on Thursday, so in essence we gained 2 contracts or an additional  10,000 oz of silver  will stand for delivery in April.  The next big delivery month for silver is May and here the OI fell by 4019 contracts to stand at 43,822. We are less than 2  weeks away from first day notice for the May silver delivery month.   The estimated volume on Friday was big, coming in at 49,132 contracts which equates close to 246 million oz of silver. The world produces 700 million oz per year ex China ex Russia so in essence today's volume equates to 35% of annual silver production. We had confirmed volume on Thursday at 84,526 contracts which is a huge volume day . (.4226 billion oz or 60.2% of annual silver production)

Comex gold/April contract month:

April 19.2013      April gold.

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	389.14 (Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	35,834.377 (JPM,HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	3726.61  (Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts) today	0  (nil  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)	620  (62,00)  oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,415  (1,041,500 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	11,616.61
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	285,944.5

We had good activity at the gold vaults.

The dealer had 0 deposits and 1 dealer withdrawal.

Out of the dealer Scotia:  389.14 oz was removed

We had 1   customer deposit:

i) Into Brinks:  3726.61 oz


total customer deposit:  3726.61 oz



We had 2  customer withdrawals :


i) Out of JPM:   3726.61 oz
ii) Out of HSBC:  32,107.767 oz

total customer withdrawal: 35,834.373   oz  

We had 0  adjustments:

Thus the dealer inventory  rests tonight at 2.371 million oz (73.74) tonnes of gold.
The total of all gold at the comex rests at 8.917 million oz or 277.0 tonnes.
The comex is slowly losing its gold both at the dealer end and the customer. 

The CME reported that we had 0 notices filed for nil oz of gold on Friday.   The total number of notices so far this month is thus 10,415 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 1,041,500 oz of gold. In order to establish what will be the total number of gold ounces standing, I take the OI for April (620) and subtract out Friday's delivery notices (0) which leaves us with 620 contracts or 62,000 oz left to be served upon our longs. 

Thus  we have the following gold ounces standing for metal:

1,041,500 (served)  + 62,000 oz (left to be served upon )  =  1,103,500 oz or
34.32 tonnes of gold.

we lost 1800 oz  of additional gold standing for the April gold contract. This is turning out to be a very big delivery month!1

Silver:

April 19.2013:  April silver: 

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	602,045.2 (Scotia)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	301,957.09 oz (Delaware,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,807,345.95 (JPM, Brinks,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts)	1 contracts  (5,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)	29  (145,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	718  (3,590,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	1,874,426.2 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month	4,610,143.4

Today, we  had good activity  inside the silver vaults.

 we had 0 dealer deposits and 1  dealer withdrawals.

Out of Scotia:  602,045.20 oz leaves the dealer  and this silver enters JPMorgan customer account.

This is the second day in a row we have had this type of transaction between JPM and Scotia.



We had 3 customer deposits:

i) Into JPM: 602,045.20 oz 
ii) Into Brinks: 467,574.05
iii) Into Scotia; 737,726.70 oz

Total deposits:  1,807,345.95  oz

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  1,926.499 oz
ii) Out of Scotia:  300,030.6 oz



total customer withdrawal: 301,957.09 oz

we had 1  adjustments:

Out of the Scotia vault:  336,241.341 oz gets adjusted out of the dealer account and enters the customer account.

Registered silver  at :  39.735 million oz

total of all silver:  166.257 million oz.

The CME reported that we had 1 notices filed for 5,000 oz of silver  for the non active contract month of April. In order to calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand, I take the OI for April silver (30) and subtract out Friday's notices (1) which leaves us with 29 notices or 145,000 oz left to be served upon our longs.

Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this non active delivery month of April is as follows:

3,590,000 oz served  +   145,000 oz to be served  =  3,735,000 oz

we gained 10,000 oz of additional silver standing.
This is also turning out to be a very good delivery schedule for what is usually a quiet month as April is a non active month for silver.

Editor note :

GLD ETF loses more gold between 4/18 and 4/19 ...... about ten tons more ! 

C.O.T Commercial short interest - 28 ,645,100 ounces ( 4/9/13 - 4/16/13 ) 

Net Commercial short interest position - 14 , 192 , 900 ounces  ( 4/9- 4/16 /13 ) 

If short interest stays at current levels , is there only 233 tons of marginal selling / wiggle room  before the GLD ETF runs dry as inventory matches short interest ?  Recall , 82 tons have been sold since 4/8 , so , does this mean perhaps several weeks at current selling rate ? If I'm correct , when the overall commercial short interest equals inventory , GLD ETF  selling will dramatically decrease  ! 

April 19.2013

Tonnes          1,123.06

Ounces        36,107,452.35

Value US   $50.731  billion.

April 18.2013:

Tonnes 1,132.99

Ounces 36,426,619.21

Value US $50.752   billion

In contrast , SLV inventory remains  flatlined ....

C.O.T Commercial short interest - 420,695,000 ounces ( for 4/9 - 4/16/13 ) 

Net Commercial short position - 112 , 490 , 000 ounces  ( 4/9 - 4/16 /13 ) 

April 19.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust	336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.	10,451.01

april 18.2013

Ounces of Silver in Trust	336,007,785.800
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.	10,451.01

*  *  *  

april 8.2013:

Ounces of Silver in Trust	337,505,197.400
Tonnes of Silver in TrustTonnes of Silver in Trust One metric tonne is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,150.7465 troy ounces.	10,497.59

( Harvey's comment below - BTW , I think he is on point regarding present status of SLV and ongoing looting of GLD ....) 

Friday we lost zero oz of silver from the SLV.

Please note the big difference between the Gold at GLD and the silver at SLV 

I am now more convinced than ever to that fact that London England is out of silver.

The GLD has its gold inventory contracting every day yet the silver SLV inventory remains constant . This is why there is really no gold liquidation..the gold that is inside the GLD vaults is just being robbed from shareholders and placed on a boat heading for China.  They cannot rob any silver inventory from the SLV because there is none left!!

*   *   *  

At 3:30 we got the long awaited COT report which contains the huge raid on Friday and Monday.

Let us head over to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it:

Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators			Commercial		Total
Long	Short	Spreading	Long	Short	Long	Short
204,677	75,795	18,067	144,522	286,451	367,266	380,313
Change from Prior Reporting Period
865	-8,658	-5,806	8,667	6,794	3,726	-7,670
Traders
170	86	82	61	47	258	193
	Small Speculators
	Long	Short	Open Interest
	45,817	32,770	413,083
	-7,156	4,240	-3,430
	non reportable positions		Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Positions as of				Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Very strange:

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in gold added a tiny 865 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in gold covered a large 8658 contracts from their short side and profited handsomely courtesy of the cartel banks.

Our commercials:

Those commercials which are close to the physical scene and are long in gold, added a rather healthy 8667 contracts as gold was smothered in price

Those commercials which are short in gold added a rather large 6794 contracts to their short side even at these low prices in gold.

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched a massive 7156 contracts from their long side.

Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 4270 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion:

You still must conclude that this is bullish for gold as the commercials went net long by 1873 contracts. It is very unusual for the specs to have made a fortune on their shorting.


And now for our silver COT:

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators			Commercial
Long	Short	Spreading	Long	Short
39,701	22,103	33,283	61,641	84,139
1,209	-8,474	-3,652	581	5,155
Traders
72	48	55	44	37
Small Speculators		Open Interest		Total
Long	Short	157,302		Long	Short
22,677	17,777			134,625	139,525
-3,077	2,032	-4,939		-1,862	-6,971
non reportable positions		Positions as of:		143	123
		Tuesday, April 16, 2013		© SilverSeek.com

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in silver added 1209 contracts to their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver covered a massive 8474 contracts from their short side and made out like bandits.

Our commercials:

Those commercials that have been long in silver and are close to the physical scene added 581 contracts to their long side

Those commercials that are short in silver added a monstrous 5155 contracts to their short side.

Our small specs;

Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a rather large 3077 contracts from their long side, expecting danger and they were right.

Those small specs that have been short in silver added another 2032 contracts to their short side.

Conclusion:

hugely bearish in silver as the commercials went net short by 4574 contracts.

This report is from April 9 through to April 16.


*  *  *  

Gold Futures Raid Leads To ‘Extraordinary’ Demand For Bullion Globally

Submitted by GoldCore on 04/19/2013 10:40 -0400

• Australia
   
• British Pound
   
• Hong Kong
   
• Switzerland
   
• Turkey
   
• Twitter

Gold in USD, by Tick, – (Bloomberg)

Gold extended gains above $1,400 an ounce on signs that jewelers, investors and store of value buyers of gold are taking advantage of the biggest slump in prices in three decades.

Global demand for physical is very clearly seen in rising premiums being seen internationally. The drop in prices ignited a spate of buying in gold coins and bars, sending premiums for gold bars to multi-month highs throughout Asia. Demand intensifed overnight as prices rose over $1,400/oz.

XAU/EUR Currency, by Tick, 2 Weeks – (Bloomberg)

Indian gold premiums, always a good indicator of demand for physical have jumped due to tight supplies. Premiums charged by banks for gold has increased from around $1.20 to between $3 to $5 per ounce.

The premium for metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is up to as much as $10, in Turkey it’s almost $20 and in Asia it’s about $5. Premiums for gold bars in Hong Kong were at $1.90 to $2.00 an ounce to spot, their highest level since early last year. Premiums in Singapore and Tokyo were also at multi-month highs.

Government mints, bullion refineries and dealers around the world report a dramatic increase in demand for coins and bars.

Bullion refiner, MKS said that “physical demand is extraordinary.”

Digital gold provider, Bullion Vault, said that Monday and Tuesday were their “strongest 48 hour period for new customers this year.” Bullion Vault said that they saw record volumes of digital gold and silver transactions on Monday “beating the previous peak of September 2011.”

There has been a marked increase in demand since the price plunge. We saw a huge amount of panic selling Monday but Tuesday saw as many buyers as sellers. Since Wednesday, we have experienced more buying than selling and most of the selling was of small orders, less than fifty ounces, while there were lumpier buy orders from high net worth clients. 

Ironically, the gold futures price plunge has resulted in one of our best weeks in terms of sales so far in  2013. In some ways, the price shake out was needed by the market as buyers are no longer on strike and are seeing value at these levels. 

Demand for gold is also coming from contrarian investors who are concerned that stock markets are at multiyear and all time record highs and looking toppy at these levels and there are also concerns about deposits in Europe.

XAU/GBP, by Tick – (Bloomberg)

In terms of transactions, gold buyers outnumbered sellers by a ratio of nearly five to one yesterday. In terms of volume, gold buyers outnumbered sellers by a ratio of nearly nine to one yesterday. Meaning that there were more buyers than sellers and buyers were placing larger orders than those selling and this trend has continued today.

U.S. gold coins sales have been at record levels this week. Lower prices and the tragic events in Boston may have contributed to increased buying due to concerns about the risk of terrorist attacks.

Premiums are rising in Europe and the U.S. and there are delays of a few weeks on some smaller coins and bars showing the growing tightness in the market.

“We are hearing of huge jumps in premiums for all gold products at the street level, so there is a sense that the downdraft for gold futures has overrun the rear physical metal market in a big way,” said Gene Arensberg, editor of the Got Gold Report.

“High premiums mean supply is drying up and it is just a question of time before that shows up in the paper gold markets,” he said.

NEWS
Physical demand for gold on the rise –Market Watch

U.S. Mint’s Sales of Gold Coins Soar After Futures Slump -  Bloomberg

Gold Traders Split on Outlook as Asian Jewelers Buy - Bloomberg

Singapore Considers Gold Fix – Wall Street Journal

COMMENTARY
Aftermath Gold Crash - What Next? – Money Week

Video: Rogers Says Gold Going `Much Higher' Over Decade - Bloomberg

Brian McKenna Explores 'The Secret World of Gold' - Montreal Gazette

Is Australia The New Switzerland? – Money Morning

Talk of strong physical gold demand grows post selloff – Market Watch

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.

As many of you know, we had a broadcast on the national Canadian TV network the CBC

on the secrecy and manipulation of gold.

I present to you the tape and I urge you to see it in full:

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell)

Video of CBC's 'The Secret World of Gold' posted at GoldSeek

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-04-19 19:04. Section: Daily Dispatches

3p ET Friday, April 19, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Video of last night's broadcast of the documentary "The Secret World of Gold" on the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.'s "Doc Zone" program has been posted in three parts at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1366397576.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

A little background first on the documentary viewed in Canada.

1. Two years ago Ned Naylor Leyland and Andrew Maguire spent many hours with the BBC explaining the manipulation and educating the filmmakers for the BBC in London England.

2. At the last minute Tony Blair pulled the plug on the broadcast.

3. A new whistleblower, last August, a very high official of JPMorgan approaches the CFTC with details of fraud and collusion by JPMorgan and cohorts.  He provides documents in support of his claim.

4.  The CFTC also calls in Andrew Maguire who confirms the data provided.

5.  The new whistleblower scared that something will happen to him escapes to China.

6.  The new whistleblower is then contacted by the CBC through skype and he is interviewed for the new Doc Zone documentary.

7. Bill Murphy, of GATA was interviewed last year by the CBC along with John Embry and Eric Sprott.

8. Strangely, Murphy and the whistleblower are edited out of the program as well as the March 25 2010 hearings at the CFTC. NO GATA member was interviewed, nor was I.

The CFTC has a lot of explaining to do as they had two whistleblowers confirming each other's data

and yet they did nothing.

9.  I have been kept abreast of this situation since February but had to keep it secret less the entire program landed in the dumpster.

 Turd Terguson on this matter:

courtesy   TFMetals/T Ferguson

Two years ago, Ned Neylor-Leyland and Andrew Maguire spent countless hours with a BBC film crew explaining the manipulation of precious metals markets. After patiently explaining the evidence, educating the filmmakers (who were not traders or PM investors) and providing them with considerable help understanding the issues, methods, and techniques used, the film was all wrapped up and ready to air. It was going to be the first time that the public would see and have explained to them in detail actions that were both fraudulent and criminal on the part of the so-called "market makers".
At the last minute, the broadcast was quietly canceled for reasons never publicly explained. In theory, there is a copy of this tape buried somewhere deep in the bowels of the BBC. Odds appear long that it will ever see the light of day.
Now, a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation documentary on gold has been made. When it was being filmed, the crew and producers apparently interviewed someone who was actually on the inside of the JPM market manipulation scheme, a whistleblower who (one presumes) explained on-camera how the illegal and fraudulent manipulation of precious metals markets is carried out. As if this weren't enough, credible claims have been made in the PM blogosphere that all of this whistleblower's information has been given to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, a government regulator whose entire reason for being is to track and prevent such fraudulent trading and market manipulation from taking place.

So this documentary would have not only shared with the public the whistleblower's claims, it would have also shared the information that the Government agency charged with regulating these markets is also complicit in the crime, through their refusal to act on information directly indicating that ordinary investors have been routinely defrauded by the "market-makers"... as juicy a story as any documentary filmmaker could want.
And what happens? The portion of the film showing the whistleblower's information, the portion showing fraudulent activity by powerful financial titans and the complicity of the regulators that allows them to get away with it, magically winds up on the cutting room floor and never makes the final cut. Two for Two. Nicely done.
Here is the director of the CBC film Brian McKenna- take a look at this guy.

On further inspection, he appears to be exactly the type of spineless weasel who would bow to pressure to cut the only truly new, hard-hitting, and important portions of his film. You know, the parts that show fraud and cover-up... the parts that are supposedly the raison d'eter of hard-hitting documentary filmmakers. Let's hear what Brian has to say in his own words, in the Montreal Gazette piece published yesterday on his film:
"...that’s the kind of courage I like to capture in my documentaries. Whether it’s people who (survived) Auschwitz, who escaped and lived to tell their story... Celebrating heroes — I like to do that."
Yeah, Brian. You love courage and like to celebrate heroes. Just not when those heroes have something to say that might rile up a government agency complicit in fraud, or irritate a financial titan. Other than that, I am sure you are very edgy and bold. An inspiration to us all, really.I have a great idea for you next film- it is the riveting tale of Canadian and British documentary filmmakers who love to think of themselves as fighting the good fight, speaking truth to power through their films, yet cave to pressure the moment they themselves have to risk anything at all. You can call it Courage and Cowardice.
Courtesy of TF Metals

The following is huge, the Chinese Gold Exchange Society has sold out of gold (and silver) and now must import gold from Switzerland and England.



First courtesy of Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkreig

Chinese Gold Exchange Sold Out - Begins Importing From Switzerland

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/19/2013 14:02 -0400

• Bloomberg News
   
• Meltdown
   
• Switzerland

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society Runs Out of Gold... Importing from Switzerland and London

Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and it’s President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today.  Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical gold and silver.  While I tend to be skeptical when I hear about silver shortages since these reports have been so exaggerated in the past, the lack of silver coin availability and premiums are the most extreme I have seen since the financial and economic meltdown of 2008.  Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.


and the second from Jessie from Jessie's Americancafe.com

Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Has 'Almost Run Out of Available Gold Bullion' Awaits Imports

Hong Kong's century old Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange has reportedly almost run out of gold bullion at these price levels and is waiting for imports to come on Wednesday of next week from Switzerland and London. This information is from an April 19th interview.

Apparently they are not able to source from within their region which is a bit of a surprise since China is a major gold and silver producer.  Gold seems to be moving from West to East.

Why aren't they also going to New York for available bullion supply at the Comex?

The Hong Kong Gold and Silver market seems to be more of what is called a 'bullion market' rather than a paper speculative market dealing in highly leveraged position trading with only small amounts of actual metal changing hands.

"The Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society operates in Hong Kong as a registered society. At present, we have 171 member firms which are sole proprietorships, partnerships or limited companies. Among these 171 firms, 30 are bullion group members. Bullion group members who want to manufacture good delivery bars may apply for the qualification of accredited refineries. Upon accreditation, these member firms may produce 99% fineness 5-tael gold bullions and 999.9% 1-kg gold bullions for delivery on the Exchange. The bullions they produce also circulate widely in the open market."

Please see the attached interview from Bloomberg Asia with the President of the exchange.

I do not want to make too much of this as it may be temporary. And since this is a metals exchange rather than a derivatives market a shortage of metal is not a default. A default is a paper promise to deliver that fails.

But it seems to call into question, if not shoot all to hell, the theory that the precipitous decline in the price of gold marked by the dumping of huge numbers of contracts into quiet markets was based on market fundamentals rather than brazen naked short selling and highly leveraged speculation in the London and especially New York markets, which both deliver only a fraction of the metals volumes which are traded on their exchanges.

And still hardly anyone is talking about the dog that didn't bark, and that is silver.

Another huge important exchange between Sinclair and Eric King, of Kingworldnews
were Sinclair repeats his assertion that the LBMA cannot deliver any of gold forward positions called for by those holding gold longs.

Once the world realized that Cyprus would be a template for future confiscations, no doubt those that had forward positions at the L.B.M.A in gold demanded immediate delivery.  This set physical levels to the lowest levels at the LBMA and this is turn caused  the central bankers to unleish their scorched earth policy, by supplying massive quantities of non backed paper gold, realizing that London was close to failing:



(courtesy Sinclair/Kingworldnews)

Gold was smashed to hide delivery failure, Sinclair says

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-04-19 19:59. Section: Daily Dispatches

4p ET Friday, April 19, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Mining entrepreneur and gold trader Jim Sinclair today tells King World News that the price of gold on commodity exchanges was smashed to conceal the inability of exchanges to deliver, that bank depositors in the United States are going to get the Cyprus treatment, and that the price of gold is going to have more zeroes behind it than anyone expects. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Si...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Switzerland must now hold a referendum on gold reserves.
The gold first must be repatriated back to Switzerland and then the SNB must buy enough gold to equate to 20% of total assets. They will need to buy another 49 Billion SF's worth of gold  (approx 1100 tonnes of gold)

Swiss to hold referendum on gold reservesBy James Shotter in Zurich

Switzerland is to hold a referendum on a popular measure that would ban the central bank from selling its gold reserves and force it to keep at least 20 per cent of its assets in the metal.
Under the terms of "Save our Swiss Gold", which is led by members of the ultra-conservative Swiss People’s party, the Swiss National Bank would have to repatriate gold reserves held abroad and keep them at home.
Under Swiss law, initiatives that attract more than 100,000 signatures can be put to a referendum. On Thursday, the federal chancellery confirmed that the campaign had gathered 106,052 legitimate signatures.Cyprus agreed last week to sell gold worth about €400m from its reserves as part of efforts to bring its public finances into order, sending the gold price tumbling on fears that other eurozone countries with debt problems might follow suit.
Governments in the eurozone’s beleaguered southern periphery tend to hold a large part of their total foreign reserves in gold – the Italian central bank holds 2,451 tonnes, more than 70 per cent of its total reserves, while Portugal’s holding of 383 tonnes accounts for 90 per cent.
However, proponents of the Swiss measure flatly reject the idea of sales, arguing that disposals of gold reserves at low prices between 2001 and 2006, as well as more recently, have cost Switzerland billions of Swiss francs.They insist that the SNB’s gold reserves, which stood at SFr49.5bn at the end of February, accounting for about 10 per cent of its balance sheet, are the best store of value available to the central bank.
"Further gold sales, while both global currencies, the dollar and the euro, are threatening to collapse? No way. Today gold is almost the only really valuable asset left on the SNB’s balance sheet," according to the website of the initiative.
Backers contend that it would strengthen the position of the central bank, allowing "both Switzerland and the SNB to preserve their room to manoeuvre and independence in the management of monetary policy".
That view conflicts somewhat with the position of the Swiss National Bank, which views the call with some scepticism.
"We have considerable concerns with regard to the monetary policy implications of the demands in the initiative," the bank said, adding that it would provide a fuller response "in due course".
A date for the referendum has not yet been set. However, it is not uncommon for the period between an initiative being accepted for referendum and a vote being held to extend to several years.
Swiss to hold referendum on gold reserves

Gold refiners are going 24/7 trying to keep up with orders:

(courtesy Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews)

Gold refiners can't keep up with orders, von Greyerz tells King World News

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-04-19 23:26. Section: Daily Dispatches

7:20p ET Friday, April 19, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News tonight that premiums for real gold are soaring, that refiners can't keep up with orders, and that "the artificial manipulation of paper gold has nothing to do with the physical market." Unfortunately, of course, the mining share market takes its cues from the paper gold market and nobody is offering premiums for mining shares. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/19_Re...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

I have reported to you in the past everything in this article but it is worth repeating

courtesy  Long XinMing

Federal Reserve Refuses to Submit to an 

Audit of Germany’s Gold Held in U.S. 

Vaults

Dr. Long Xinming (4M),- The German government has been storing about half of its gold supply with the US FED, apparently in the NYC FED vaults. Germany decided to bring home all its gold, but the FED has said that isn’t possible to do, and it would need until 2020 to be able to accomplish the transfer.

The German government then asked to visit the FED vaults to inventory the gold and determine its actual existence, but the FED refused to permit Germany to examine its own gold. The reasons given were “security” and “no room for visitors”. And nothing else.

Germany did finally send some staff to the FED, and they were permitted only into the vault’s anteroom where they were shown 5 or 6 gold bars as representative of their holdings, and were permitted nothing else.

They apparently came a second time, and the FED did open only one of 9 rooms and let the Germans look at the stack of gold, but were not permitted to either enter or touch. And they returned home.

There has been speculation for a long time, that the FED doesn’t actually have much gold, that it has either sold it off, lent it out, or used it as collateral for borrowings. Either case, there are many claims that the gold that is being stored on behalf of many nations, doesn’t actually exist.

And nobody, other than FED staff, have actually been permitted inside the vaults to see or inventory any of the gold. There is no evidence that the gold actually exists, other than the word of the FED.

Even more, the situation is the same with the supposed gold depository at Fort Knox. Nobody has seen the gold there for a very long time.

The last audit, and the last public visit, was in 1953, just after U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower took office. No outside experts were allowed during that audit, and the audit team tested only about 5% of gold there. So, there hasn’t been a comprehensive audit of Fort Knox in over 60 years.

In 1974 six Congressmen, one Senator and the press were allowed to enter Fort Knox to see for themselves if the gold was there or not. The tour showed that there was gold in Fort Knox but, all the same, it sparked even more controversies.

Only a small fraction of the gold reserves were made available for viewing, and one Congressman published a report saying that the gold bars held in the fort may have been less heavy than would have been expected.

During the past two years, several US politicians have claimed that there is a high chance that neither Fort Knox nor the FED have any gold, or perhaps only a very small amount, and have demanded a full and public inventory and testing, but the FED have resolutely refused.

I have no idea what to make of this. There was another incident last year when Goldman Sachs were proven to have been selling gold certificates to the public, ostensibly backed by real gold in their vaults, but the story leaked out that they in fact held no gold at all, and were doing “fractional reserve” gold banking, on the basis that few people would want to claim their gold at any one time.

Even worse, Goldman were charging customers storage fees for the gold that didn’t exist. Also, do you recall the information I circulated around the middle of last year, documenting the immense gold theft the FED pulled on much of the world during WW II?

The FED came to all countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa and told them their gold holdings might not be safe because of the war, and they should permit the FED to take all of it to the US for safekeeping. Many countries obliged, receiving FED gold certificates in exchange, but when they later tried to cash in those certificates and reclaim their gold, they were told the certificates were fake, that they contained spelling and other mistakes which the FED would never have made, and that the serial numbers were wrong. And the FED still has all that gold.

They even did that to Chiang Kai-Shek, taking all of Taiwan’s gold – that had been looted from China – and never returning it. The last I heard, Chiang’s wife was still trying to recover her gold from the FED.

Apparently a few people have been successful in presenting their certificates to the FED, with documentation that was irrefutable, but even in those cases the owners were forced to settle for only 1% or 2% of the actual value. And most other people or nations who attempt to redeem these certificates are arrested by the FBI for fraud – at the request of the FED.

Late last year, a Canadian businessman had some of these certificates and tried to use them as collateral for a loan, and the FED had him arrested, extradited to the US, and charged him with fraud. Insiders claim this is common practice to frighten every one away.

I’ve inserted here a graph that shows the increase in the FED’s gold supply during the war. It also shows the amount decreasing heavily later, so perhaps some of the gold was returned, but it appears there was a great deal that never was.

For many years after the war, the FED denied these transactions and even denied the existence of these certificates. But a crashed US military plane was found in the Philippine jungle with heavy wooden boxes full of metal containers, all with FED markings, and all containing hundreds of billions of dollars of these same certificates. That was when the entire story finally became public, but the Western media have never cared to report on it.

I have many photos of the content of that aircraft, of the boxes and the cans and the certificates, if anybody cares to see.

Some people claimed this was a CIA counterfeiting operation supported by the US government, as an attempt to just steal the gold from many poor nations.

Via The 4th Media

Dr. Long Xinming is the founder and senior editor of bearcanada.com. He is a frequent contributor to nsnbc international and our partner media The 4th Media in Beijig.

*  *  *  

http://silverdoctors.com/deepcaster-mammoth-market-force-prospects-as-fed-dumps-500-tons-of-paper-gold/

DEEPCASTER: MAMMOTH MARKET FORCE PROSPECTS AS FED DUMPS 500 TONS OF PAPER GOLD

APRIL 20, 2013 BY THE DOC 4 COMMENTS

Submitted by Deepcaster:

“On Friday, April 12, the Fed’s agents hit the market with 500 tons of naked shorts. Normally, a short is when an investor thinks the price of a stock or commodity is going to fall. He wants to sell the item in advance of the fall, pocket the money, and then buy the item back after it falls in price, thus making money on the short sale. …with naked shorts, no physical metal is actually sold…
“Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16 ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.
“Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?

“What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds. The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.

“Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it.”

“Assault on Gold Update,” Paul Craig Roberts, frmr asst Treasury sect. Reagan Administration, PaulCraigRoberts.org

The recent dramatic Gold and Silver Price Takedown revealed the playing out of Mammoth Market Forces with Effects far beyond the Precious Metals Market. Monitoring these Forces is Essential for Investors going forward.

Among other Effects the Precious Metals Price Takedown demonstrated that the Prospects for certain Key Commodities Price launches soon are better than ever (but of course from lower levels).

It also demonstrated that even higher Price Targets sooner are now in store for these Key Commodities and Gold and Silver.

Why? The recent Cartel (Note 1) coordinated Takedown was effected by the selling of 500 tons ($25 billion) of paper Gold – representing 15% of all annual mine production. Total contracts traded represented about 3,000 tons. If all that were Physical, it would not be feasible, and probably not possible, to make delivery. Only The Cartel or a Major Catastrophe could have created such an 8 Standard Deviation Event!

But in the Real Market, the Physical Market, the Premiums for Physical (over the Paper Spot Price) have been increasing both before and after the Price Takedown. Indeed, Precious Metal Markets Professional Bill Haynes reports that Physical Gold at recent prices is flying off the shelves at a record clip – Buyers exceeded Sellers by 50 to 1. This report is consistent with others from around the World indicating that this Takedown has had the Unintended Consequence of dramatically increasing the demand for Physical.

Thus our recent forecast of “inevitable Takedowns” has been proven correct, although the magnitude of the Takedown surprised us a bit. But we should not be surprised and considering The Cartel’s Extraordinary motivation for the Takedowns. This Extraordinary Motivation reveals much about the Prospects for the Precious Metals and Commodities Markets, and, indeed for Markets in general.

London Bullion Dealer Andrew Maguire provides what is probably the Key Clue. He reports that, after Cyprus, the demand for Delivery of Physical Gold skyrocketed and the London Gold Market had nearly run out of Physical Metal and could not honor contracts for Physical Delivery. Thus Key Central Banks and Governments felt they had to undermine enthusiasm for the Metal (and wipe out speculative longs trading on Margin) by taking down the price. But instead of undermining enthusiasm for Physical, the Cartel Takedown has increased it.

One correspondent’s analysis is probably spot on.

“Andrew McGuire, hospitalized some time ago by a London hit-and-run driver after stating that the gold price was artificially suppressed by …, now says that the latest attack on gold occurred because the London metal market was short gold and unable to honor contracts that called for physical delivery. At around $1350/oz, it suddenly becomes much easier, of course, because many “long” speculators have been ruined.

“Another sender writes:

also, from another trusted source, there is no gold left in Turkey, sold out, coins, bars, etc

“Elsewhere, one hears that physical silver is hard to come by in the US; orders placed now, by best customers, cannot expect delivery for 2 to 4 weeks. The Comex paper price bears little relation to the price of physical metals, which sell at significant premiums.

India and China continue metal purchases.”

Private Communication, 4/17/2013

Clearly, the Fed’s (and other Central Bank’s) Promiscuous Printing of the $US (and other Fiat Currencies) has resulted in an obvious and continuing weakness in the $US  purchasing power in terms of Gold and Silver, were these Precious Metals (and Commodities prices in general) prices not suppressed.

And to a considerable degree the same motivations exist for other Central and allied Mega Banks. The Banking Cartel cannot afford weakness in the World’s Reserve Currency or indeed in other Major Fiat Currencies at this time because they know that the flight into Real Assets would turn into a Major Move toward abandoning their Fiat Currencies.

And if/when the $US (and/or other Fiat Currencies) falls they lose Power and Wealth. From their perspective, their suppression of Real Asset Prices must succeed at all costs. But the fact they acted so dramatically now, demonstrates they are increasingly desperate to prevent obvious commodities price inflation and especially a Gold and Silver Price Spike up. Thus, we still forecast Gold and Silver’s launch should occur no later than our earlier Forecast and quite possibly sooner.

The motivation behind the Precious Metals Takedown is clear. In addition to the usual one of not wanting competition for their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies, The Cartel clearly wants to hide the structural weakness in the $US, and in their other Fiat Currencies vis-à-vis Real Assets such as Gold and Silver.

Short-term, the Takedown has achieved its desired effect in the Paper Precious Metals Market, but has boosted Premiums for Physical. And the $US is bouncing around just under 83 basis USDX. We recently Forecast when its downtrend likely resumes.

That structural US$ weakness derives mainly from the Central Bank’s orgiastic QE and from the fact that the U.S., Eurozone, Japanese, Chinese, and indeed the International Economy is not recovering. Statistics revealing China’s slowdown are yet another indication of that.

The Falling Price of Dr. Copper, THE Main Economic Health Indicator, and Crude Oil along with weak employment and PPI numbers in major nations around the world, tell us that once again it behooves Investors to methodically begin to move out of $US and Euro denominated Assets and into Real Money (Gold and Silver), and the Aussie $ or Swiss Franc, and carefully selected Real Estate and Essential Food Commodities and related businesses (Stellar Price Prospects for these! — See notes below re. Recommendations).

Longer term, U.S. Treasury Securities are The Great Bubble. We reiterate: the most telling feature of recent market action was not the recent weakness in the Equities Markets. Rather, it was the flight to the Ostensible Safety of U.S. Treasuries. Were one to short long-dated U.S. treasuries here and hold for the long term, one would almost surely profit. Perhaps the Greatest Mammoth Force in Months to come will be the Bursting of the U.S. Treasury Bubble.

The Bernanke Bond Bubble is not immortal. The current choppy almost imperceptible rise in the yields trend in recent months will accelerate as the months wear on. Thus another Key Signal has been sent recently. The beginning of the end of the $US as the World’s reserve currency is coming ever closer; a matter of months.

Australia and France have already agreed to deal directly with the Chinese in Yuan. And the Chinese have become the World’s largest Gold Importer and Producer.

Regarding Equities, until recently they have kept levitating in spite of weak overall Economic numbers.

It is old news that Fed and other Central Bank liquidity is doing the levitating. But Equities cannot stay pumped forever when the fundamentals do not support them.

Five out of every six S&P companies have issued Negative Guidance.

And the “China Slowdown” news was the catalyst for this week’s Takedown.

Indeed, our Four Wave Equities forecast for 2013, correct thus far, appears to be playing out. The first quarter’s Up (Wave 1) now appears to have topped and to be reversing down as we earlier forecast into Wave 2.

We reiterate, we forecast a (Wave #2) choppy down Move of 5% to 10% over the next few weeks, probably contemporaneous with U.S. Battles over the Budget and Debt Ceiling which are just beginning to heat up. Could it be that The Administration via the “President’s Working Group on Financial Markets” (which, per the 1987 Act, has legal Authority to Move Markets) has an interest in keeping Equities Prices boosted except when Takedowns are useful to pressure Congress? It would not surprise us to see sharp Takedowns as the Budget and Debt Ceiling battles heat up.

The Equities Market is “artificially” elevated as PIMCO CEO El-Erian said. And Chairman Bernanke recently said the QE would keep coming… That is a very Dangerous Situation which may well lead to a Stagflation-induced Crash likely beginning sometime late in 2013, or early 2014. The Fed and other Central Banks cannot keep money pumping as Inflation obviously intensifies.

From a technical perspective, the aforementioned Prospective Bull Rally Top coming later, would complete the Hindenburg Omen Pattern (and Monday’s Equities Drop generated another H.O. Observation by the way), and thus, likely beginning sometime later this year, to be followed by the Cataclysmic multi-leg Crash – the impending Mega-Move of which we speak, and which we think is highly probable. As we successfully did before the 2008 Crash, we will be looking to recommend leveraged shorts prior to that Crash.

In sum, the Economic Fundamentals of the USA, Eurozone, and Japan, collectively 53% of the Global Economy, including Debt HyperSaturation, ever higher Unemployment, and Economic Stagflation have not disappeared. And the Fiat Currency “war” among them has only just begun. And Cyprus Precedent and the Italian Election Stalemate and Portugal’s Continuing Decline remind us that Eurozone problems are still very much with us. Italy has the third largest economy in the Eurozone.

And Dr. Copper’s swoon is telling us the Equities Rally is built on Sand and Fed Paper. This is what the multi-year Hindenburg Omen Chart Pattern is also telling us.

In sum, the Equities Markets are treacherous and we counsel being very careful regarding long positions.  As we earlier indicated, a Sector by Sector analysis is best. Some will rise and some fall dramatically. (See Notes 2 and 3 below.)

One Final Caveat regarding the Equities Markets: Several Negative Events could cancel any further Monetary Inflation-induced Rally.

It appears ever more likely for example, that there could be a sudden flight away from the $US – could cancel any such Rally. And war with North Korea or intensified War in the Mideast could do it as well. The flight away from the U.S. Dollar could happen any time (see above).

Contrary to bemused opinion, Wars, especially Nuclear Wars, are not good for long-term Economic or Market Health – Skilled Workers and Valuable Capital are destroyed. Stay Tuned.

One other Key Mammoth Force to observe is the Crude Oil Price. We repeat that the Crude Oil price tells the truth (i.e., is harder to manipulate). And, along with Dr. Copper, (and contrary to the artificially (and until this past week) elevated equities Market) the truth it (and Dr. Copper) has been telling recently that the Economy is weakening.

One should ask: if the Economy is strengthening, why are Crude and Copper declining?

The Rush to buy Physical Gold, even after the Paper Price Takedown and the fact that the S&P recently broke down out of its Uptrend Channel, shows us that Fed Policy is, once again, failing to help the Real Economy, and is instead helping mainly their shareholders/owners, the Mega-Banks.

David Rosenberg capsulizes well one likely consequence of Failed Central Bank Policy.

“The central banks can try to provide as much liquidity as possible to the marketplace, but the problem is that liquidity is already in abundance. The central banks are now resorting to force-feeding an obese man (hence the ‘puking out’). The real risk is actually that investors begin to sense that the central banks are starting to lose their credibility…which is what happens when policy fails.”

David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff

It may well be that the Central Banks are boxing themselves into a Corner of their own making –their Excessive Saturation of Sovereigns and citizens with debt leaves Massive Debt Write-offs/Repudiation – the Icelandic Solution – as the increasingly likely Sole Option.

Mammoth Force analysis is immensely useful and indeed essential to Investors.

Best regards,

Deepcaster

April 19, 2013

Note 1: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions – III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled “Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds” in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

Note 2: Our earlier 4 wave forecast is playing out thus far, as forecast. But first…

The recent dramatic Gold and Silver and general Commodities Price Takedown demonstrated that the Prospects for certain Key Commodities Price

– launches soon are better than ever (but of course from lower levels) and

– that even higher Price Targets sooner are now in store for these Key Commodities.

Why? The recent Cartel coordinated Precious Metals Takedown appears to have been effected by the selling of 400 tonnes ($20 billion) of paper Gold – representing 15% of all annual mine production. Total contracts traded represented about 3,000 tons. If all that were Physical, it would not be feasible, and probably not possible, to make delivery. Only The Cartel or a Major Catastrophe could have created such an 8 Standard Deviation Event!

But in the Real Market, the Physical Market, the premium for Physical (over the Paper Spot Price) have been increasingboth before and after the Price Takedown. Indeed, Precious Metal Markets Professional Bill Haynes reports that PhysicalGold at recent prices is flying off the shelves at a record clip – 50 to 1.

Our recent forecasts of “inevitable Takedowns” has been proven correct, although the magnitude of the Takedown surprised us a bit. But we should not be surprised and considering The Cartel’s Extraordinary motivation for the Takedowns. This Extraordinary Motivation reveals much about the Prospects for the Precious Metals and Commodities Markets, and, indeed for Markets in general.

So have we hit bottom in the Gold Price? And which Key Commodities have Stellar Price prospects? We answer these questions, comment on Cartel Motivation, and make a Buy Recommendation in our latest Alert “Our 4 Wave Forecast Accurate So Far; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Equities, Crude Oil, & Key Commodities”  just posted in ‘Alerts Cache’ at www.deepcaster.com.

And we just made a Buy Recommendation with great Profit Potential.

Note 3: So far, our earlier Four Wave Forecast is playing out.

But we expect the current Wave 1 move to last only for a very few more days, if that, in one Key Sector. Then we forecast a Reversal into Wave 2, which we expect to be sharp and dramatic and to last a few weeks. It will be an opportunity to make significant profits but will generate significant losses for the unprepared. And after that the Wave 3 Mega-Move which we earlier forecast should follow.

For us, the interesting characteristic of this Forecast is that virtually all the Factors – Fundamental, Technical, Interventional, Economic, Financial, and Political support it. They do not guarantee its realization, but do suggest it is a high probability.

To consider this Forecast and Opportunities for Profit and Protection, read our latest Alert just posted, “Wave #2 Impending; Forecasts: Equities, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold, Silver, & Crude Oil” in ‘Alerts Cache’ at www.deepcaster.com.

And, fortunately, we now have an excellent entry point for an essential Hot Commodity.

Jim Puplava’s Big Picture: Fast and Furious- Paper Gold vs. Physical Gold – The Real Story Behind Gold’s Decline

Kathryn Derbes of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC – “We’re Completely Out of Silver Eagles – They’re Gone”

BIG PICTURE, NEWSHOUR 20/Apr/2013

In this segment of the Big Picture Jim looks at the large decline in gold and silver, and gets into the reasons behind the carnage, as well as the huge difference between “physical gold & silver” and “paper gold & silver”.  Jim notes that investors should know why they own gold, understand it, and then leave it alone. Also, Kathy Derbes CFA, and CEO of KDerbes Precious Metals LLC, joins Jim in this segment. She notes the current record buying of physical precious metals, last seen during the Lehman crisis, and says her firm is “completely out” of Silver Eagles. Kathy is not even taking orders for more Eagles, as it may take six to eight weeks or more to acquire them.

James J Puplava CFP with Kathryn Derbes CFA
Sponsored by: PFS Group

Gold’s Black Market?

thedailybell.com / By Staff Report / Friday, April 19, 2013

Meltdown? 15% of world’s gold miners face collapse after plunge in price strips off $ 169-billion market value … Gold’s 9.3% plunge on April 15, the biggest one-day drop in New York City since March 1980 could not have come at a worse time for gold companies. Barrick Gold Corp.. and Newmont Mining Corporation., the world’s two largest producers, are among companies in the FTSE Gold Mines Index thathave collectively lost about U.S. $ 169 billion in market value since bullion peaked at in 2011. Gold equities are trading at the lowest level relative to gold. - National Post

Dominant Social Theme:  It is getting grim out there.

Free-Market Analysis:  So here is the conundrum: There are reports from all around the world did it is difficult to buy physical gold and silver .

Yet the price of gold has Plunged by dog ​​reds of dollars and now mining companies are getting ready to shut down.

What’s that all about? Here’s more from the article:

Gold producers, ignored as global stocks rebounded in the past two years and investors turned to exchange-traded funds did track bullion, facebook closing mines or shutting Themselves down after the metal’s worst slump in three Decades this week made 15% of miners unprofitable .. .

Barrick Took another hit this week When the cost to insure its debt surged to the highest in four years after Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade the company’s bonds.

The review of Barrick’s debt rating of Baa1 what prompted by a legal challenge to its U.S. $ 8.5 billion project in the Andes, Moody’s said in a statement. Toronto-based Barrick is the biggest producer of the precious metal with U.S. $ 7.5 billion of bonds.

This month’s futures price drop to as low as U.S. $ 1,361.10 ounce to ounce brings gold closer to the global average production cost of about U.S. $ 1.200 in, accor ding to Nomura Holdings Inc. That puts producers: such as Canada’s Semafo Inc. and Golden Star Resources Ltd.. at risk of mine closures or “financial distress” if prices did fall to level, accor ding to Macquarie Group Ltd.. Tanzania, Africa’s fourth-largest gold producer, said a sustained slump may shut mines there.

READ MORE

Sinclair – The US Will Be Cyprused & We Will See $50,000 Gold

kingworldnews.com / April 19, 2013

Today Jim Sinclair told World News about the ongoing chaos and told KWN the world is witnessing something that has never been seen in history.  Below is what Sinclair, who was once called on by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to assist during a Wall Street crisis, had to say in this interview.

Eric King:  “This was from Fed Governor Jeremy Stein’s speech, “If systemically important financial institution or SIFI, does fail, the losses would fall on its shareholders and creditors, and taxpayers would have no exposure … Perhaps more to the point for TBTF (too big to fail), if SIFI does fail, I have little doubt that private investors will, in fact, bear the losses — even if this leads to an outcome that is messier and more costly to society than we would ideally like.”

Sinclair:  “What he is saying is that the potential losses are so large, and he is referring to the more than one quadrillion dollars in legacy over-the-counter market for derivatives, that nobody could create that much money.

So what’s pending now is so large, and these statements from Stein are confirmation that Cyprus is in fact the blueprint in the United States for coming financial failures….

READ MORE

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865578331/Kennecott-landslide-impacts-global-copper-industry-Utah-economy.html?pg=all

( As of 4/15 , the mine had twenty days of ore to refine - so around the first week in May , supply hiccups from Kennecott should really kick in.... ) 

SALT LAKE CITY — Kennecott Utah Copper asked mine workers Monday to voluntarily take vacation or unpaid leave while the company considers its next move in the wake of a massive landslide that brought mining to a halt.

Employees who don't want to take time off will be provided work but may be assigned to jobs outside their usual roles. Someone who drives a truck might be asked to paint a building or do maintenance work, said Kyle Bennett, spokesman for Rio Tinto's Kennecott Utah Copper.

Meantime, the Mine Safety and Health Administration has not allowed Kennecott's geotechnical team into the open-pit mine to asses the size of the slide and the damage it caused.

"Once our folks are able to get in, then we will monitor the slide pattern and make a determination on what it means long term," Bennett said.

An enormous wall of dirt rumbled down the northeast section of the Bingham Canyon Mine last Wednesday night. No workers were injured, but roads, buildings and vehicles inside the pit were damaged. The University of Utah seismograph station recorded the slide as a 2.4 magnitude shake.

The worldwide copper industry now has a watchful eye on immediate and future operations at the mine. The landslide could also impact other copper mines expected to come online this year around the globe.

One analyst estimates cleaning up and repairing the Bingham Canyon Mine could cost Rio Tinto $1 billion in earnings before interest and taxes, depending on how long it takes, said Brian Hicks, a global natural resources fund portfolio manager with U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio.

Kennecott has roughly 20 days of stockpiled copper ore available for refining, Hicks said.

"I believe they're going to be living off stockpiled material," he said. "Really, until that gets dwindled down, I don't see an impact on supply right now."

The Bingham mine provides about 1 percent of the world's copper in what generally has been a very tight market the past few years.

That market, Hicks said, was anticipated to change with new mines preparing to open in Mongolia, South America and Africa later this year.

"However, with this incident I think it just reminds investors as well as people within the industry just how difficult it is to get that material out of the ground and how difficult it is to start new mine," he said. "So, perhaps that expectation might be not as strong after this incident."

Hicks, who has visited the mine in the past and had two grandfathers who worked there, said the landslide also could hurt Kennecott's effort to extend the life of the mine. In 2010, Rio Tinto announced plans to dig deeper into the open pit to reach more copper ore.

"That actually can make it quite tricky because the integrity of the pit walls could be in question further as you go deeper and deeper and you have to take the mine out wider," he said. "That definitely could be in question."

Having the mine out of commission could also hurt Utah.

Rio Tinto's Utah operations contributed $1.2 billion to the state's economy, including $270 million in salaries and benefits, $765 million in purchases with Utah firms and $140 million in state and local taxes in 2011, according to the University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The company directly employed 2,801 people and 14,971 indirectly that year.

"You have a large industry that brings a lot of money into the state. I don't know how many gallons of diesel they use every day, but it's a lot," said Richard Giraud, a landslides expert with the Utah Geological Survey.

Giraud sees furloughs as a real possibility.

"If you're not running, how do you pay for somebody for doing nothing?" he said. "They haven't come out and said that, but we certainly see that with any other industry."

Kennecott won't be making any money while it digs out from the landslide, which could take a long time, Giraud said.

"You have a landslide that deposited a lot of material into the bottom of that copper pit," he said. "The material that it deposited in there is not ore. That has to be removed. There's no profit in any of that."

In addition to financial concerns, Giraud said the company will have to assess the safety risks of resuming mine operations.

"How much risk are they willing to tolerate? Will they tolerate a higher level of risk right now just to try to get it into production and to get some revenue going? A lot of tough questions and it's really too early for a lot of good answers," he said.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865578416/Landslide-will-cause-50-production-drop-at-Bingham-mine-Kennecott-says.html?pg=all

BINGHAM CANYON — The Bingham Canyon Mine will see a dramatic drop in production as a result of the massive landslide that brought operations to a standstill last week.

"Based on what we have seen, our estimated 2013 production will be roughly 50 percent lower than planned in mined and refined copper," Kyle Bennett, Rio Tinto's Utah Kennecott Copper spokesman, said Tuesday.

Bennett didn't immediately know what that means in terms of dollars. He also didn't know how that would effect the future of the mine and its workers. The company has not furloughed or laid off anyone but asked employees Monday to take voluntary vacation or unpaid time off.

"This has had an impact on the operation, there's no question about it. We're going to have to make a lot of challenging decisions moving forward," he said.

Also Tuesday, Kennecott estimated the size of the slide at more than 165 million tons of rock and dirt based on laser scanners and visual observations, he said.

After visual assessments, company officials discovered damage to three 100-ton electric shovels, 14 320-ton haul trucks, along with drills, bulldozers and graders. There appears to be little or no damage to the mine's crusher and conveyor systems, Bennett said.

"The slide didn't behave exactly like we had anticipated, so it traveled a little further down into the pit than we expected. But we know 90 percent of our equipment is not damaged. There may be equipment that's recoverable as well," he said.

The Mine Safety and Health Administration continues to keep Kennecott's geotechnical team out of the open-pit mine to get to fully assess the destruction.

In 2012, Kennecott reported gross revenue of $2.4 billion and $567 million in net earnings. The numbers were much more robust the year before, with gross revenue at $3.4 billion and net earnings at $1.2 billion, according to the company's annual report.

Production levels and ore grades were factors in the drop as was the fluctuating metals market.

"We had a solid production year in 2011 and we had the benefit of strong prices as well," he said.

One analyst estimates cleaning up and repairing the mine could cost Rio Tinto $1 billion in earnings before interest and taxes, depending on how long it takes, said Brian Hicks, a global natural resources fund portfolio manager with U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio.

Pam Perlich, a University of Utah research economist who has done work for Kennecott, said she spoke with company officials Monday.

"The point that I was making to them is that (cleanup) becomes a generator of employment," she said.

"I know that they've got people who are working untold hours right now trying to figure out what to do, what the way forward is, what this would mean for how they would get their operations put back together again and what would be the mitigation-restoration-construction work necessary to get there."

Those are all questions Kennecott said are too early to answer a week removed from the landslide.

"Every day we're assessing the situation. We're trying to make very methodical decisions about the operation to put ourselves in the best position we can moving forward," Bennett said.

Rio Tinto's Utah operations contributed $1.2 billion to the state's economy, including $270 million in salaries and benefits, $765 million in purchases with Utah firms and $140 million in state and local taxes in 2011, according to Perlich's analysis at the U. Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The company directly employed 2,801 people and 14,971 indirectly that year.

"It's a big footprint not just in the landscape but in the economy here in the state," Perlich said.

Shutting down Kennecott would have significant impact on Utah, she said. In addition to putting people out of work, it would hurt contractors, suppliers and others who provide services for everyday operations at the mine as well as tax revenue for the state.

"If the mine is not operating, I would assume that would mean they would have to have their property taxes re-figured and there would be the obvious reductions in severance taxes and income taxes and the like," Perlich said.