P5+1 Irked as Iran Proposes Far-Reaching Peace Plan
Instead of One-Off Deal Iran Seeks 'Final' Settlement
by Jason Ditz, April 05, 2013
The P5+1 proposal to remove a trivial amount of sanctions against Iran in return for the Iranian government mothballing much of its civilian nuclear program has been met by a counter-proposal today, with Iran pushing a broader, long-term deal.
Iran had been reluctant to accept the deal, fearing that they would have no bargaining chips to ever see the bulk of the sanctions removed, and is now pushing the initial pact as the start of a broad series of measures on both sides envisioning a final settlement.
P5+1 officials are reportedly “puzzled” by the proposal to actually settle the matter, as opposed to setting the stage for years of additional meetings and threats. They also seem likely to shoot down the proposal, saying there is a “wide gulf” between Iran’s vision and theirs.
Iranian officials say their proposal is important in that it seeks “specific plans” and a practical solution for the long-term dispute. They also say they want a deal wherein the Western nations in the P5+1, particularly the US, formally recognize their right to a civilian nuclear program.
If N. Korea is the Threat, Why is all the War Talk about a Weak Iran?
Posted on 04/05/2013 by Juan
All the talk in Washington is about war on Iran, which poses no threat to the United States. But one never hears belligerence toward North Korea, which routinely menaces the US (most recently threatening to nuke the US territory of Guam). In contrast, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said his country cannot have nuclear weapons because they are incompatible with Islamic law (which forbids killing innocent noncombatants).
| North Korea | Iran |
| Nuclear Warheads: 8 | Nuclear Warheads: 0 |
| Times has threatened to nuke US: 1 | Times has threatened to nuke US: 0 |
| Air Force Personnel 85,000 | Air Force Personnel: 30,000 |
| tanks: 3,500 | tanks: 1,613 |
| Active Troops: 1,106,000 | 585,000 |
| 8500 artillery field pieces | 3000 artillery field pieces |
Iran lines up behind North Korea, warns the US of “great losses”
DEBKAfile Special Report April 5, 2013, 7:30 PM (GMT+02:00)
Kim Jong-Un with his generals
Tehran’s intercession in the Korean crisis on the side of its ally in Pyongyang was predictable, even though the US preferrs to ignore the close interrelations between the two allies.
And so, on Friday, April 5, Deputy Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri stepped forward to point the finger at Washington:
[“The presence of the Americans in [South] Korea has been the root cause of tensions in this sensitive region in the past and present. The US and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region,” he said, adding for good measure: “Independent countries will not submit to the US mischief. The time for Washington’s bullying and extortion is long past.”
[“The presence of the Americans in [South] Korea has been the root cause of tensions in this sensitive region in the past and present. The US and its allies will suffer great losses if a war breaks out in this region,” he said, adding for good measure: “Independent countries will not submit to the US mischief. The time for Washington’s bullying and extortion is long past.”
DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources: The second part of the statement was a perfect fit for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s flat refusal to accept US demands on Iran’s nuclear program. The Korean crisis gave the Iranians the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.
As Kim Jong-Un moved two intermediate missiles to the east coast of North Korea, Gen. Jazayeri’s rhetoric landed on the latest round of talks the six powers were holding with Iran in Amaty, Kazhakstan for a diplomatic resolution of Iran’s nuclear challenge.
As Kim Jong-Un moved two intermediate missiles to the east coast of North Korea, Gen. Jazayeri’s rhetoric landed on the latest round of talks the six powers were holding with Iran in Amaty, Kazhakstan for a diplomatic resolution of Iran’s nuclear challenge.
Washington hoped to spread some cheer over a diplomatic process that had long past proven futile by planting advance reports that Khamenei had ordered a slowdown of Iran’s nuclear program up to the June presidential election to avoid crossing a red line that would trigger a military response.
But when the parties came to the table, Iran’s senior negotiator Saeed Jalili refused outright to respond to the proposals put before Tehran in the previous session.
He seemed to have taken his cue from Kim Jong-Un, who too has stuck to his father’s rejectionism in the face of every American proposal for dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program.
DEBKAfile: The inevitable convergence of the Korean and Iranian crises confronts America’s three top officials, President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, with their most challenging international test.
But when the parties came to the table, Iran’s senior negotiator Saeed Jalili refused outright to respond to the proposals put before Tehran in the previous session.
He seemed to have taken his cue from Kim Jong-Un, who too has stuck to his father’s rejectionism in the face of every American proposal for dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program.
DEBKAfile: The inevitable convergence of the Korean and Iranian crises confronts America’s three top officials, President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry and Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, with their most challenging international test.
Kerry would be well advised to take a break from his Sisyphean efforts to crack the latest of umpteen Israel-Palestinian disputes, call off his weekend appointments with Israeli and Palestinians leaders and instead fly to Moscow and Beijing.
There, he could start bargaining with Russian and Chinese rulers for preliminary understandings with Washington on Iran and Syria that would make it worth their while to use their leverage for bringing the out-of-control North Korean firebrand to heel.
There, he could start bargaining with Russian and Chinese rulers for preliminary understandings with Washington on Iran and Syria that would make it worth their while to use their leverage for bringing the out-of-control North Korean firebrand to heel.
So long as the Obama administration sticks to its current separate policies on Syria and Iran, Iran and Korea, Moscow and Beijing won’t lift a finger to apply the brakes to Kim Jong-Un before he drives the world to catastrophe.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/iran-nuclear-talks-stall-as-contradictions-among-powers-emerge.html
Iran Nuclear Talks Stall as Contradictions Among Powers Emerge
By Indira A.R. Lakshmanan & Jonathan Tirone - Apr 5, 2013 4:12 PM ET
Iran and six world powers weren’t able to seal a deal to curb the Islamic Republic’s disputed nuclear program on the first of two days of talks, which ended with the two sides still far apart.
The optimistic tone officials struck at the close of a previous round of negotiations in Almaty, Kazakhstan, six weeks ago faded last night as contradictory signals emerged from Iran and the six nations negotiating with the Islamic Republic.
Diplomats from the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, Russia and China met with Iranian officials for more than five hours yesterday. The Iranians met separately with the Chinese, Russian, British and German delegates, and the full group will convene again today, officials said.
Iran’s deputy negotiator said that his side had offered “practical” suggestions to resolve the nuclear dispute, and the head of Russia’s delegation, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, called the Islamic Republic’s response “refreshing.”
Western diplomats complained that Iran failed to respond to the specifics of a confidence-building proposal made six weeks ago that would ease some economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran’s curbing uranium enrichment.
A failure to make progress in this second round of negotiations in Kazakhstan would bring new pressure on Iran. The Islamic Republic, already subject to dozens of international sanctions on oil, banking, trade and shipping, will face additional economic penalties if it fails to work toward a deal, U.S. officials said. Israel and the U.S. have also threatened to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Iranian Threat
Iran, with the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, has threatened to stop crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz if attacked.
Commodity markets so far haven’t reacted to the stalemate. Oil rose to a nine-month high of $119 a barrel on Feb. 8 on concern that tension with Iran would disrupt Middle East oil exports. Prices subsequently have declined as signs of a wider conflict eased.
Brent crude for May settlement declined $2.22, or 2.1 percent, to end the session at $104.12 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest closing price since July 24. Trading was 79 percent above the 100-day average.
While Iran has sought a broad lifting of the sanctions saddling its economy, world powers have offered an interim deal: a partial easing of the restrictions in return for Iran halting its enrichment of uranium to 20 percent purity. Iran says it needs the medium-enriched uranium for isotopes to treat cancer patients, while other nations have said that the uranium could easily be further enriched to create weapons-grade material.
Sunk Costs
It may be difficult for leaders in Tehran to offer concessions because of Iranian national pride in the nuclear science program and sunk costs estimated at $100 billion and rising, according to a study by researchers at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Federation of American Scientists in Washington.
Iran wants to define the “final outcome” of the international negotiations, Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, told reporters yesterday afternoon. The six powers entered the talks seeking “concrete” responses to the confidence-building proposal made six weeks ago, European Union spokesman Michael Mann said.
Iran didn’t respond to the international community’s proposal, and instead reiterated its desire for a comprehensive nuclear resolution, according to Western officials at the talks.
‘Indisputable Fact’
Russian delegate Ryabkov appeared to contradict the U.S. and Western European position, saying it was “an indisputable fact” that the Iranian delegation “addressed concrete elements of the position outlined by the group of six.” The Iranian reply, he said, was “evidence that the negotiations are serious.”
“We are not going over the same things and that’s refreshing,” he said. Still, Ryabkov declined to predict how the meeting would end.
One Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that while the two sides had a long and substantial discussion, they remain far apart.
Failure to produce some interim deal in Almaty could stall further talks, fueling an escalation of sanctions and military threats, according to analyst Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.
“Time for peaceful pressure is running out,” said Dubowitz, who advises U.S. lawmakers on sanctions. “If the Almaty talks fail, Congress likely will move forward on new sanctions that will massively intensify the economic pressure on Iran.”
Limited Time
In an interview on the sidelines of the talks in Almaty, Ali Vaez, a senior analyst with the Washington-based International Crisis Group, said that “in the absence of concrete progress,” international negotiators “can’t sustain this process for much longer.”
While receiving formal recognition of its “right” to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes isn’t a precondition at the meeting in Almaty, Iran wants to know that right will be recognized eventually, said an Iranian official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Iran’s insistence on knowing the “endgame” rather than making an interim agreement first, puts the talks at risk, Vaez said. In conversations with Iranian officials, he said he had advised agreement “on a limited deal that would break this vicious cycle.”
Enriched Uranium
Enriched uranium is used to power electric power plants and make medical isotopes. Highly enriched uranium, or HEU, is needed to produce nuclear weapons.
After a decade-long standoff, during which agreements to continue talking were defined as success, both sides remain entrenched. A United Nations investigation, international sanctions, military threats and diplomacy all have failed to ease international concerns that Iran is developing the ability to make nuclear weapons.
Iran, with 75 million people and a $484 billion economy, has maintained that its program is peaceful and within the boundaries of the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, called the previous Almaty negotiating round a “turning point” after its Feb. 27 conclusion. Ryabkov said in an interview during those talks that the group offered to ease restrictions on Iran’s exports of petrochemical products and some additional items.
Iran Tests
Patrick Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an interview that Iran’s willingness to adopt confidence-building measures such as greater access for UN inspectors or unilateral steps to make its enriched uranium less useful for a weapons program is a test of “whether talks are worth continuing.”
Bagheri of Iran said yesterday that “actions referred to as confidence-building measures must be considered part of a larger, more comprehensive plan. They are not separate.”
“The credibility of the process itself is on the line this time around,” Suzanne Maloney, an Iran analyst at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said in an e-mail interview from the United Arab Emirates. “I think we need the win more than” the Iranians “do, despite the presumptions to the contrary among many U.S. policy makers.”
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, a member of the country’s nuclear negotiating team, said the diplomatic process should be expected to move slowly and be fraught with challenges. Iran should be rewarded with the lifting of sanctions along the way or it won’t continue on the path, Araghchi said.
‘New Approach’
“If there is balance between steps to be taken by the two sides, we likely will be able to start a new approach, and this new trend will be long and will require many steps,” he was quoted as saying in an interview with the state-run Mehr news agency. “There are great obstacles” that require “patience and resistance” to overcome, he said.
“President Obama says that there is an open door in front of Iran, but the Iranians are very skeptical,” said Trita Parsi, author of “A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama’s Diplomacy with Iran” and president of National Iranian-American Council. “Even if an agreement can be reached on 20 percent, Iran is not likely to accept unless it has clarity on what the end game is.”
Iran: Clear Proposals Ready for P5+1 Talks
EU Expects 'Positive Response' to Iran Proposals
by Jason Ditz, April 04, 2013
The P5+1 and Iran are set to begin the next round of talks in Kazakhstan, and if you take the United States out of the equation, everyone’s going into the situation pretty optimistically, and believes progress can be made.
One of Iran’s negotiators commented on the matter, saying that Iran had viewed the proposals from the February meeting and was set to present “clear, groundbreaking proposals” of their own at the Friday, Saturday meeting.
European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s spokesman was interviewed on Iran’s state media, and suggested that was what their nations involved in the talks wanted. She insisted a “clear and concrete” response from Iran and a positive response from the P5+1 were what she was hoping to get out of the meeting.
Ashton’s spokesman added that “nobody is denying the right for Iran or any other country to have nuclear technology for medical purposes or energy purposes.” The US may have something to say about that, however, for while they give lip-service to this notion they have repeatedly demanded Iran stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, an attempt to build fuel rods for the US-built Tehran Research Reaction, the country’s only source of medical isotopes.
US officials have downplayed the chances of anything coming out of this meeting, and insist that the failure will be entirely Iran’s fault. The details of proposals on either side are so far unclear.
North Korea crazy town news.....
N Korea said to move second missile to coast |
N Korea said to move second missile to coast
Two missiles with estimated range of 3,000km reportedly moved to east coast, South Korea's Yonhap news agency says.
Last Modified: 05 Apr 2013 08:52
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North Korea has moved two medium-range missile to its east coast, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported, as the United States strengthened its Pacific missile defences amid escalating rhetoric from Pyongyang.
The report on Friday cited a senior military official as saying, "Early this week, the North has moved two Musudan missiles on the train and placed them on mobile launchers."
South Korea's Defence Ministry declined to comment on the report.
Earlier, when only one missile was reported, Seoul's defence minister Kim Kwan-jin said it could reach a "considerable distance" but not the US mainland, telling legislators it "could be aimed at test-firing or military drills".
Intelligence analysis quoted by Yonhap said the missile was believed to be a Musudan which has an estimated range of around 3,000km or more.
North Korea has been railing against US-South Korean military exercises that began in March and are to continue until the end of this month. The allies insist the exercises in South Korea are routine, but the North calls them rehearsals for an invasion and says it needs nuclear weapons to defend itself.
Early on Thursday the North Korean army said it had received final approval for military action against the US, possibly involving nuclear weapons.
"The moment of explosion is approaching fast," the general staff said.
US precautions
A provocative missile test-fired into the sea over Japan is one scenario that analysts have said the North could choose to exit the crisis with a face-saving show of force.
"I think they have gone too far in their rhetoric and I am concerned that if by any misjudgement, by any miscalculations... this will have very serious implications."
- UN chief Ban Ki-moon
The North is not believed to have mastered the technology needed to miniaturise nuclear bombs enough to mount them on long-range missiles. Nor has it demonstrated that those missiles, if it has them at all, are accurate.
The White House said the US was taking "all necessary precautions" following the latest developments.
White House spokesman Jay Carney said: "What we're seeing now is a familiar pattern of behaviour out of North Korea - regrettable but familiar.
"We're monitoring both the actions taken by and the statements made by the North Korean leadership. And we're also taking prudent measures to respond to that activity and to those statements," Carney said.
The Pentagon announced that it will hasten the deployment of a missile defence system to the US Pacific territory of Guam to strengthen regional protection against a possible attack.
UN warning
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said North Korea must rein in its threats, warning that any miscalculation could lead to an extremely grave outcome.
He told a news conference in Madrid that daily security and humanitarian reports from Pyongyang were "really alarming and troubling".
"Nuclear threat is not a game, it is very serious," Ban told reporters. "I think they have gone too far in their rhetoric and I am concerned that if by any misjudgement, by any miscalculations... this will have very serious implications."
Meanwhile, the European Union called on Pyongyang to stop stoking tensions and re-engage with the international community. Russia's foreign ministry termed the North's neglect of UN resolutions as "categorically unacceptable".
On Thursday, North Korea blocked access to its Kaesong joint industrial zone with South Korea for the second day running, and threatened to pull out its 53,000 workers in a reaction to the South's airing of a "military" contingency plan to protect its own workers there.
The zone was shut on Friday for a scheduled North Korean holiday, with managers of the 123 South Korean companies in the complex warning they would have to close down operations in a matter of days unless the North lifted the ban on incoming raw materials and personnel.
The Unification Ministry said there were still 608 South Korean citizens in Kaesong on Friday, after 253 returned to the South.
Sen. Inhofe: Attack North Korea ‘Right Now’
Says Attack 'Would Get Their Attention'
by Jason Ditz, April 04, 2013
With tensions still high between the US and North Korea, and experts seeing that continuing in the near term, hawks seem to be hoping to strike while the iron is hot, with Sen. James Inhofe (R – OK) declaring that the US needs to have the plan to attack North Korea prepared “right now.”
Speaking on Newsmax TVtoday, Inhofe said that the US has the capability to attack North Korea at any time, and that Kim is “just as bad as his daddy was,” so he reckons the attack needs to happen now.
Speaking about the US warships in the area, Inhofe insisted that “a pre-emptive strike from something like that would get their attention.” Since North Korea has been complaining about the increased US military deployments along their coast and border, it is hard to imagine that the US doesn’t have their “attention.”
“We’re going to do what’s necessary,” Inhofe predicted, following similar calls for a unilateral US attack from Rep. Peter King (R – NY), who insisted yesterday that the US has a “moral obligation” to attack North Korea.
North Korea Shifts Missile to Coast Amid Growing Tensions
South Korean DM Says It's Probably for a Test
by Jason Ditz, April 04, 2013
South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-Jin has confirmed that North Korea has moved a missile with “considerable range” to the east coast, just one day after the North Korean government warned nuclear war could begin “today or tomorrow.”
As with all of the other hysterical rhetoric from both sides, there doesn’t seem to be anything imminent, with Kim saying the missile appears to be a mid-range variety, and is likely meant for a test firing or a drill, not an actual war.
This marks the first actual move by North Korea since the last couple weeks of disputes began, as while the US has committed billions of dollars in new Korea-related spending and moved massive amounts of hardware to the region, North Korea had until today stuck with threats in the state media.
Despite those threats, North Korea doesn’t even have missiles capable of hitting the US coast, and its best functional missiles would make any US territory, even Guam, a long-shot.
Afghanistan news items......
NATO strike kills civilians in Afghanistan | ||
At least six Afghans reported killed in NATO air strike, one day after Taliban suicide bomb attack left dozens dead.
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2013 19:49
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Civilian deaths are a sensitive issue in Afghanistan where US and NATO have fought the Taliban for 11 years [AFP]
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| A NATO air strike has killed four Afghan police and two civilians in the central-east Ghazni province, Afghan officials have said. A spokesman for the US-led NATO force in Kabul told the AFP news agency on Thursday that the military was checking the information. The attack happened after Taliban insurgents attacked a local police post in eastern Ghazni province before dawn and NATO planes were called in to support the officers under attack. "The NATO planes went there to assist the police, but the post was bombed and four police were killed. Two civilians present were also killed," Fazul Ahmad Tolwak, chief of Ghazni's Deh Yak district, told AFP. Ghazni provincial administration spokesman Fazul Sabawoon confirmed the incident and gave a similar account. The strike came a day after Taliban gunmen killed at least 46 people at a court complex in the western city of Farah in a bid to free insurgents standing trial.
The assault came as Afghan President Hamid Karzai, speaking to Al Jazeera in Qatar, said he remained open to talks with the Taliban, but that he wanted to secure the progress his government has made. The Farah death toll was the highest in Afghanistan from a single attack since a Shia Muslim shrine was bombed in Kabul in December 2011, killing 80 people. Karzai condemned the court attack as a "massacre" and said Afghans would "not let such killings of Muslims by the Taliban go unpunished". After an air strike killed 10 civilians, mostly women and children, in February, Karzai banned Afghan security forces from calling in NATO strikes. Also Thursday, NATO reported that an American F-16 fighter jet had crashed in eastern Afghanistan, killing the US pilot. The coalition did not release further details about Wednesday's crash. "While the cause of the crash is under investigation, initial reporting indicates there was no insurgent activity in the area at the time of the crash," the coalition said in a statement. | ||
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