http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2013/02/greece-promise-army-has-been-obtained-not-intervene-against-civil-uprising
BY LEIGH PHILLIPS PUBLISHED 24 FEBRUARY 2013 12:01
By Yiannis Papadoyiannis
No changes will be made to the original terms and timetable of the bank recapitalization process upon the insistence of the government and its international creditors, despite the credit sector’s demand for an extension at the very least.
According to the plan, everything will have to be in place by the end of April, which means that the banks will have to schedule extraordinary general meetings to issue the decisions about the terms of the share capital increases, the Capital Market Commission will have to be fully informed, and the period for the exercise of shareholders’ right must be determined.
Government sources say that only after banks have completed all necessary actions might there be an extension of a few weeks given for the exercise of rights, possibly till the end of May. This would be a purely informal extension that changes nothing of the plan agreed.
After all, for the timetable or the terms of the recapitalization to change, it would take an amendment to the bailout agreement that Athens has signed with its creditors, which is ruled out as a matter of principle. According to the timetable, the banks should have decided on the amount of funds they would draw through contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) by the end of January, and will have to complete their share capital increases by end-April.
It now appears that the widespread feeling that changes could be made to the terms and the timetable was unfounded. Last week the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) and the Bank of Greece sent letters to the chiefs of the main banks asking them to speed up their procedures for the completion of the capital increases as planned.
Lenders had wanted the terms to change so that the whole project would become more attractive to bank shareholders. Now the project will have particularly unfavorable terms for current bank stakeholders who are running the risk of losing any chance to recover even a part of the losses they are incurring.
Bank officials say that their 2012 financial results will be published during March, and the invitations for the general meetings that will decide the exact terms of the capital increases will be sent out immediately.
According to the recapitalization law, for current shareholders to retain overall control of the banks, they will have to contribute at least 10 percent of the capital required in order to obtain the right to repay the remaining 90 percent that the HFSF will cover and regain control. Any banks whose owners eventually fail to cover that 10 percent will irrevocably come under HFSF control and the shares of old shareholders will effectively be nullified.
Stournaras says no civil service sackings, Kouvelis insists he will not accept any
The heads of the troika team in Greece are due to arrive in Athens on Saturday ahead of talks with Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras, which are expected to focus on several topics that will include the possible sacking of civil servants, vehemently opposed by the head of coalition partner Democratic Left, Fotis Kouvelis, on Friday.
The officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are due to meet Stournaras on Sunday morning at his office and are scheduled to stay until March 10. Troika technical teams have been in Athens from the beginning of this week.
The key issues to be discussed between the two sides are expected to be Greece’s privatization program, its tax collection system, the recapitalization of the country’s banks and on how to reduce the number of public sector employees.
Following a meeting on Friday with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and several other ministers, Stournaras insisted that there are no plans to fire civil servants.
Speaking to New Democracy MPs at a dinner on Thursday night, Samaras also said that the government would not consider any firings before the end of next year in order to allow a proposed mobility scheme to work properly.
Some 25,000 civil servants are due to enter the scheme this year. Those failing to find other civil service positions will be made redundant.
Kouvelis was adamant that his party would not accept immediate sackings.
“A dogmatic insistence on layoffs is totally divorced from reality,” Kouvelis said, noting that a plan which has been drawn up by the Administrative Reform Ministry will reduce the number of civil servants in Greece to bring them below the European Union average, proportionally speaking. “The country’s lenders must realize that they are also Greece’s partners,” he said. Kouvelis added that “political stability must be based on social cohesion” and referred to a “new situation in Europe’s south” – an apparent reference to the political upheaval created by inconclusive Italian elections last month.
Greece: "A promise from the army has been obtained to not intervene against a civil uprising"
Explosive revelations from a former Greek diplomat.
BY LEIGH PHILLIPS PUBLISHED 24 FEBRUARY 2013 12:01
It is always enlightening to hear the frank assessment of a diplomat upon leaving the service, once unshackled from "the patriotic art of lying for one's country", as 19th Century American journalist Ambrose Bierce described the craft.
Leonidas Chrysanthopoulos was a career diplomat with the Greek foreign ministry. As a junior officer with the service in the 1970s, he helped assure the then freshly democratic nation's accession to the European Union (at the time the EEC). He was at different times Athens' ambassador to Poland, Albania and Canada, and finally the director general of EU Affairs in the ministry.
Last year, he finally resigned as secretary general of the Black Sea Cooperation organisation, and entered the private sector, and now feels free to speak openly about his fury at what he says Europe and international lenders are doing to his country.
“At a certain moment, quite soon, there will be an explosion of social unrest. It will be very unpleasant,” he says, referring to 15 armed incidents in the previous ten days. In the past few weeks, offices of the governing parties have been firebombed as well as the homes of pro-government journalists. The headquarters of the prime minister's conservative New Democracy party was machine-gunned, and days later a bomb exploded at a shopping mall belonging to the country's second wealthiest citizen, although no one has been badly injured by the attacks.
“It is an escalation of activities,” he worries, adding that he expects the "explosion" to occur sooner rather than later. He predicts the spark will be when new, retroactive and sizeable tax bills come due in the coming months that people simply cannot pay. “There will be further increases in armed actions. There will be bloody demonstrations.”
“These actions are condemnable, of course, but I feel that this sort of armed activity will increase as long as the government continues to impose oppressive measures against the Greek people.”
Belgian Prime Minister Elio di Rupo in Davos said that Europe should change course from austerity within six months if there is no sign of recovery. These are hopeful words to Chrysanthopoulos, but he fears it would still be too late for his country.
“We do not have six months. If the EU is going to change something, they need to change it yesterday. We even have problems burying the dead because people cannot afford the funeral expenses.” Refrigerators in the morgue were filling up with bodies until the church said that it would offer free burial for some families.
“We are heading down the road of destruction.”
Last summer, the social-democrat-conservative coalition led by Antonis Samaras launched a major crackdown on irregular migrants, rounding up 60,000 individuals out of which just 4,200 were arrested for infractions – a move that has been criticised by Amnesty International and other human rights groups.
Chrysanthopoulos says that the government has hired Blackwater, the American private military firm infamous for its activities in Iraq, which now goes by the name "Academi", along with five other international for-profit security outfits. Explaining why this has happened, he says bluntly: “The Greek government does not trust the police whose salaries have also been cut.”
There is some good news however that he hears from the contacts he maintains amongst his former colleagues and politicians. He is confident that there will be no military coup, as there was in 1967.
“There are contacts by certain politicians with elements in the armed forces to guarantee that in the event of major social unrest, the army will not intervene.”
“I don't want to go into too much detail here though as it is a delicate issue,” he continues. “But as a result of these contacts, I think this is going to be successful.”
He laments what has happened to the EU in which he spent so much of his career: “I was part of the negotiating team as a junior diplomat that brought Greece into the EU. The EU that we joined in 1981 doesn't exist any more.”
“We need a change of plan.”
UPDATE: Academi have rejected Mr Chrysanthopoulos's claim. According to a spokesperson for Academi, the firm "does not now, nor have we ever, provided security services to any entity of the Greek government."
and......
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/80-of-greeks-90-of-greek-businesses.html
Friday, March 01, 2013 1:20 PM
84% of Greeks, 90% of Greek Businesses Have Difficulty Repaying Loans
Think Greece has been "saved" by the Troika? A quick look at some loan repayment stats may help you think clearly. Please consider More than 80 pct of Greeks are having difficulties repaying loans.
At least eight in every 10 citizens who have taken out a loan are having trouble with repayment, while the problem is greater among households with children and those from the lower social strata, according to a survey conducted by Public Issue for the 2012 period.
Over three in four households (78 percent) said they are having problems in paying their installments to banks, while [an additional] 6 percent say they are totally unable to do so. This total of 84 percent is far higher than the respective rate of 60 percent in 2009, before the country entered the fiscal streamlining process. Ninety percent of corporate loans are facing servicing problems while 86 percent of consumer loans are not paid on time.
Greek Banks Insolvent
That loan data highlights what any clear-thinking person already knows: Greek banks are insolvent and will be in need of still more recapitalization.
That loan data highlights what any clear-thinking person already knows: Greek banks are insolvent and will be in need of still more recapitalization.
and......
No recap extension or term changes for banks
 |
No changes will be made to the original terms and timetable of the bank recapitalization process upon the insistence of the government and its international creditors, despite the credit sector’s demand for an extension at the very least.
According to the plan, everything will have to be in place by the end of April, which means that the banks will have to schedule extraordinary general meetings to issue the decisions about the terms of the share capital increases, the Capital Market Commission will have to be fully informed, and the period for the exercise of shareholders’ right must be determined.
Government sources say that only after banks have completed all necessary actions might there be an extension of a few weeks given for the exercise of rights, possibly till the end of May. This would be a purely informal extension that changes nothing of the plan agreed.
After all, for the timetable or the terms of the recapitalization to change, it would take an amendment to the bailout agreement that Athens has signed with its creditors, which is ruled out as a matter of principle. According to the timetable, the banks should have decided on the amount of funds they would draw through contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) by the end of January, and will have to complete their share capital increases by end-April.
It now appears that the widespread feeling that changes could be made to the terms and the timetable was unfounded. Last week the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) and the Bank of Greece sent letters to the chiefs of the main banks asking them to speed up their procedures for the completion of the capital increases as planned.
Lenders had wanted the terms to change so that the whole project would become more attractive to bank shareholders. Now the project will have particularly unfavorable terms for current bank stakeholders who are running the risk of losing any chance to recover even a part of the losses they are incurring.
Bank officials say that their 2012 financial results will be published during March, and the invitations for the general meetings that will decide the exact terms of the capital increases will be sent out immediately.
According to the recapitalization law, for current shareholders to retain overall control of the banks, they will have to contribute at least 10 percent of the capital required in order to obtain the right to repay the remaining 90 percent that the HFSF will cover and regain control. Any banks whose owners eventually fail to cover that 10 percent will irrevocably come under HFSF control and the shares of old shareholders will effectively be nullified.
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Athens braces for new talks with troika
Stournaras says no civil service sackings, Kouvelis insists he will not accept any
 Fotis Kouvelis addresses his party at a recent meeting in Athens. |
The officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund are due to meet Stournaras on Sunday morning at his office and are scheduled to stay until March 10. Troika technical teams have been in Athens from the beginning of this week.
The key issues to be discussed between the two sides are expected to be Greece’s privatization program, its tax collection system, the recapitalization of the country’s banks and on how to reduce the number of public sector employees.
Following a meeting on Friday with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and several other ministers, Stournaras insisted that there are no plans to fire civil servants.
Speaking to New Democracy MPs at a dinner on Thursday night, Samaras also said that the government would not consider any firings before the end of next year in order to allow a proposed mobility scheme to work properly.
Some 25,000 civil servants are due to enter the scheme this year. Those failing to find other civil service positions will be made redundant.
Kouvelis was adamant that his party would not accept immediate sackings.
“A dogmatic insistence on layoffs is totally divorced from reality,” Kouvelis said, noting that a plan which has been drawn up by the Administrative Reform Ministry will reduce the number of civil servants in Greece to bring them below the European Union average, proportionally speaking. “The country’s lenders must realize that they are also Greece’s partners,” he said. Kouvelis added that “political stability must be based on social cohesion” and referred to a “new situation in Europe’s south” – an apparent reference to the political upheaval created by inconclusive Italian elections last month.
Kouvelis added that it was imperative to create a safety net for poorer citizens and that help should be given to those who are unable to pay their taxes. EU structural funding should be released without delay to boost liquidity in the market and create much-needed jobs, he said.
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