War watch February 20 - 21 , 2013 - Syria , Iran , Iraq and Libya in focus

http://www.debka.com/article/22778/Hizballah-on-high-alert-jockeys-for-a-role-in-potential-Syrian-peace-accord

Hizballah on high alert, jockeys for a role in potential Syrian peace accord

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 21, 2013, 1:39 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Syria   Hizballah   Israel   Beqaa Valley   Moscow 

Israeli drone downed over Lebanon

Hizballah forces went on alert Thursday, Feb. 21, upon the expiry of a 48-hour ultimatum slapped down by Syrian rebels to halt the Lebanese group’s military support for Bashar Assad - in particular, its artillery and mortar backing for Syrian troops from bases in Lebanon.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that relevant to this chain of events is the Syrian claim that its anti-aircraft missiles downed an Israeli drone Wednesday over the Lebanese village of Deir al-Aachayer in the Rashaya region.
Those events were touched off by the onset in Moscow of preparations for a political process between Syria’s warring parties for determining the country’s future. Representatives of Bashar Assad and the Syrian opposition will be facing each other under the Russian aegis, but Hizballah and Israel are also involved and the Lebanese group is bidding for a strong voice in the process on three issues:

1. Will the HIzballah-ruled Lebanese Beqaa Valley continue to serve Assad and his army as their strategic hinterland?

2. Will the Syria-based Hizballah units, especially those securing the Shiite villages around Homs, stay there under accords reached between Assad and the rebels?

3. Will the ceasefire deals on which talks are due to begin soon in Moscow apply to HIzballah?

The general wisdom in the West and Israeli media is that Assad’s fall is inevitable and imminent.

The facts on the ground tell a different story. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Assad goes into political talks with his army controlling enough of the country to keep his regime in power for another two years at least, until the next presidential election expected to take place in 2014.

The Syrian ruler will seek to have Hizballah covered by a Syria ceasefire, hoping for Moscow’s backing on this point. Inclusion of this ally would strengthen his standing and boost his army.

It would also keep Tehran in the picture and gain its acquiescence to any deals struck in the Moscow talks. Assad understands that Iran will want to be sure Hizballah’s interests are protected and is fully capable of torpedoing any accords that throw its proxy to the wolves.The downing of the Israeli drone Wedneday over the Beqaa Valley was a move by the Syrian ruler to push Israel out of any discussion on the future role of Hizballah and the Beqaa Valley, as well as putting a stop to Israeli Air Force flights over the Beqaa and the Lebanese-Syrian border.

Israel has not so far responded to this step, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will remain passive or stop its Lebanese overflights.

This chain of events could culminate over the weekend in the Syrian rebels making good on their ultimatum and attacking Hizballah targets. The Syrian civil war would then be thrust into the byway of a Sunni-Shiite showdown athwart the Syrian-Lebanese border.

Militarily, the rebels can’t stand up to Hizballah’s far more organized and professional capabilities. If they do decide to go on the offensive, they are liable to suffer heavy losses.

and.......





http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132219435123731.html

Deadly car bomb explodes in central Damascus

At least 31 people are reported killed in blast near headquarters of the ruling Baath Party and Russian embassy. Last Modified: 21 Feb 2013 11:15 inShare2 Email Print Share Feedback

At least 31 people, most of them civilians, have been killed in a powerful car bomb targeting the ruling Baath Party headquarters in central Damascus on Thursday, activists said. Syrian state TV also reported the blast in the central Mazraa neighbourhood on Thursday, calling it a "terrorist" attack. It did not say what caused the explosions, but reported that there were casualties, and that the wounded included four children. The pro-regime TV station Al-Ikhbariya showed images of what appeared to be at least four dead bodies on the ground and cars on fire. The footage shows firefighters trying to douse cars on fire and lifeless bodies lying on the grass of a public garden. Eyewitnesses at the scene said a car had exploded at a security checkpoint between the Russian embassy and the central headquarters of the ruling Baath party of President Bashar Assad. Ambulances rushed to the scene of the blast, which also shattered windows and sent up a huge cloud of smoke visible throughout much of the city, eyewitnesses said. "It was huge, everything in the shop turned upside down," one local resident said, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution for speaking with foreign media. Al Jazeera’s Rula Amin, reporting from Beirut in neighbouring Lebanon, said the explosion took place in a heavily fortified area. "The city is under very strict restrictions. People who have come out of Damascus have been telling us about how many checkpoints are there within the city limits, inside the neighbourhoods and between different areas; especially around the headquarters of the Baath Party, the security installations and the presidential palace," Amin said. "So it seems that whoever was behind the attack had managed to go through many checkpoints until they got to the point where they can explode the car." The explosion comes amid reports of fierce clashes over the past few days between the opposition and regime forces around Damascus, as rebels tried to make advances in the city. Not long after the first blast on Thursday, a security official reported a second blast in the capital's northeastern Barzeh neighbourhood. He had no other information and spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to brief the media. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said two car bombs had exploded near security centres in Barzeh. Amin said: "It seems that explosions were just in front of one of the intelligence headquarters. It’s called in Syria “211”. People know it. It is famous. People have been interrogated and imprisoned there." Thursday's blasts followed two mortar attacks in as many days on the capital. On Wednesday, two mortar shells exploded near a soccer stadium in Damascus, killing one player. The day before, two mortar shells went off near one of Assad's three palaces in the city, causing only material damage. Damascus has so far mostly avoided the large-scale violence that has destroyed other Syrian cities, though deadly car bombings have targeted government buildings in the capital. The latest development came as a major opposition meeting was underway in Cairo, the Egyptian capital. In a communique drafted for Thursday's meeting, the opposition Syrian National Coalition said it was willing to negotiate a peace deal to end the conflict in Syria but that Assad cannot be a party to any settlement. The document, seen by Reuters news agency, said Assad and his cohorts must be held accountable for bloodshed and that any peace deal must be under the auspices of the US and Russia.

and....






http://news.antiwar.com/2013/02/20/syrian-rebels-sign-deal-with-kurdish-militia/

Syrian Rebels Sign Deal With Kurdish Militia

PKK-Backed Militia Claims Victory in Deal

by Jason Ditz, February 20, 2013

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The Free Syrian Army (FSA), one of the major rebel factions, has announced a pactwith the Popular Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia faction with which they have been fighting for control over Kurdish towns in the nation’s northeast.

FSA expansions into the oil-rich Kurdish northeast have sparked months of clashes, with the YPG and several other militias gaining local support to resist the incursions. The YPG spun the deal as a victory, saying that the FSA had in effect promised to withdraw from the towns in return for an end to the fighting.

The YPG is the fighting force for the Kurdish Democratic Union (PYD) Party, which is itself closely affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the Turkish faction that has been fighting a war with the Turkish government for decades.

The FSA’s close ties to the Turkish military and the YPG’s links to the PKK make such a truce likely to be controversial in the long run, but practical in the short term for both factions, with the YPG seeing it as a chance to establish de facto Kurdish autonomy in the region. With the Assad regime virtually withdrawn from the area, the pact will also allow the FSA to claim “liberation” of the region without actually having to fight the Kurds over control, at least for now.

and...


http://news.antiwar.com/2013/02/19/syrian-rebels-threaten-to-attack-lebanon-over-border-dispute/

Syrian Rebels Threaten to Attack Lebanon Over Border Dispute

Free Syrian Army Vows Strikes Inside Lebanese Territory

by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2013

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The Free Syrian Army (FSA) hasn’t even close to finished with its goal of taking over Syria, but the rebel faction is looking to move into cross-border entanglements in the next few days, threatening attacks on Lebanon if Hezbollah doesn’t back off in their border dispute.

The dispute on the Syria-Lebanon border has been growing over the past few days, with Hezbollah and FSA fighterskilling one another in disputesover a number of border villages, nominally on the Syrian side but populated mostly Lebanese Shi’ites who have sought Hezbollah help in keep the mostly Sunni rebels out.

Hezbollah has been mostly mum on the matter, confirming the clashes but not really elaborating on what they believe the endgame will be. The rebels have responded with more and more bellicose proclamations, and even accused Hezbollah of an “invasion.”

In the end it is unlikely Hezbollah is going to back down over the villages, which the FSA has ordered evacuated, but exactly how much of an attack the FSA can launch across border remains to be seen. The FSA was at one point fueling sectarian fighting in Lebanon’s far north however, and limited moves aimed at kickstarting more internal Lebanese strife are more likely than a cross-border attacks in force.

Syria Claims to Down Israeli Drone Over Lebanon

Saudi Arabia, Qatar Press for More Help to Syrian Rebels

Russia Warns of 'Mutual Destruction' in Syria

Missile Blast Wounds Syrian Rebel Commander

and Iran....

http://news.antiwar.com/2013/02/20/un-report-iran-is-diverting-uranium-for-peaceful-purposes/

UN Report: Iran is Diverting Uranium for Peaceful Purposes

But the US still stubbornly insists Iran stop enriching uranium to 20 percent, despite proving good on its promises

by John Glaser, February 20, 2013

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A United Nations report due this week is expected to detail a decrease in the growth of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium because it is diverting much of the material to make fuel, as it has promised, Reuters reports.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and even Israeli intelligence admitted publicly last October that Iran was diverting much of its enriched uranium for peaceful scientific research and medical isotopes.

This information clashes with what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to warn about. On Monday, heissued another stern warning of Iran’s determination to become a nuclear state, insisting that a “robust, credible, military threat” is the only thing that can stop it.

Some reports claim Iran has installed new uranium enrichment, increasing its overall capacity. But this upcoming UN report is expected to conclude that the rate of growth of Iran’s capabilities is slowing, primarily because the material is being used for fuel and other peaceful purposes.

Iran has repeatedly announced its 20 percent enriched uranium is for peaceful purposes like fuel, scientific research, and medical isotopes. Iran has followed through on this promise.

Still, negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 are essentially stagnant because of Washington’s insistence that Iran give up its 20 percent enrichment.

and.....

http://news.antiwar.com/2013/02/19/iran-pushes-nuclear-free-mideast-plans/

Iran Pushes Nuclear-Free Mideast Plans

Comments Back Similar Calls from Saudi Govt

by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2013

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Iranian Foreign Ministry officials gave a boost to the efforts for a nuclear-free Middle East pact today, endorsing the plan in much the same terms as officials from rival Saudi Arabia earlier this month.

Efforts to negotiate a treaty for a fully nuclear weapons free Middle East began in the mid 90′s, but got a major shot in the arm in 2010, when the signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) endorsed a plan to hold a 2012 summit on the matter. That summit never took place.

The stumbling block for this plan is, as ever, Israel, which is the only nation in the region that has nuclear weapons. The United States initially endorsed the plan, but later insisted they “regretted” doing so, and the Obama Administration has since issued statements saying they believe a nuclear-free zone would be a “mistake” and that Israel has an inherent rightto its nuclear arsenal.

Russia was the last major nation seriously pushing the summit in 2012, at which time Israel condemned the effort as “futile.” The US complained the summit would’ve unfairly singled out Israel, since it has nuclear weapons, and wouldn’t have focused enough on Iran’s civilian program.

and......

http://original.antiwar.com/wellen/2013/02/19/did-john-brennans-end-run-lead-to-the-death-of-ambassador-stevens-in-benghazi/

Did John Brennan’s End Run Lead to the Death of Ambassador Stevens in Benghazi?

Who would you believe: JSOC operatives past and present or the U.S. government?

by Russ Wellen, February 20, 2013

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Benghazi: The Definitive Report is the title of an e-book published on February 12 by William Morrow. It’s written by two editors at SOFREP.com, the unofficial special operations site: Brandon Webb — a former Navy SEAL — and Jack Murphy — a former Army Ranger and Green Beret. What’s unique about the report is its bipartisan appeal. Its fodder for those who would attack the State Department, the administration, and the CIA from both the right and the left. Sure enough, it’s caused ripples in Washington and garnered significant attention from the mainstream media.

To sum up, Webb and Murphy allege that the  Benghazi terrorist attack, during which Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed, was mounted by Islamist militants in retaliation for attacks on them by JSOC forces. Worse, the authors claim, neither Stevens nor CIA director David Petraeus knew about the raids, which were ordered by President Obama’s Deputy National Security Adviser John Brennan, who was acting outside the command structure. 

Webb and Murphy also declare that Petraeus’ affair with Paula Broadwell was leaked by the members of his personal protection detail in conjunction with members of the CIA who were unhappy with his emphasis on paramilitary activities over traditional espionage.

About Brennan, Murphy told Human Events:

The Senate should not confirm him as the new director of the CIA and Brennan should not continue in public life. … “I think we need to let this guy go.”

Meanwhile, Eli Lake, the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and Newsweek, writes:

… while the book is filled with juicy revelations that promise to shock even the most casual followers of counterintelligence gossip, government officials, including spokesmen for the National Security Council and Special Operations Command, dispute some of the key claims. … Ken McGraw, a spokesman for Special Operations Command, declined to discuss specific missions, but said “all U.S. Special Operations Forces work inside the established military chain of command,” and wouldn’t  “work in a foreign country without the knowledge and permission of the U.S. ambassador or chief of mission.”

The book also claims elements of the U.S. government either allowed or ran an operation to funnel weapons collected in Libya to Syria. The authors write, “[Ambassador] Stevens likely helped consolidate as many weapons as possible after the war to safeguard them, at which point Brennan exported them overseas to start another conflict.” … but Tommy Vietor, a spokesman for the National Security Council, says there was no program to send weapons from Libya to Syria. “This has no basis in reality and is completely made up,” he says. Hillary Clinton also denied any knowledge of this when she was asked about it by Sen. Rand Paul during last month’s hearings on the Benghazi attack.

Hmm, two spokespersons, plus Hilary Clinton during a hearing: that’s all you’ve got, Eli? From the Human Events piece:

Because of the sensitivities involved, the authors double-source the claims in the book, he said. Many more stories were left out because there was no independent confirmation.

It all comes down to who you want to believe: the U.S. government or JSOC operatives past and present? In my case, it’s more personal — who do I want to believe: the U.S. government or my nephew? (By way of “full disclosure,” as they say, Jack Murphy is my wife’s sister’s son.)

This article was originally posted at Foreign Policy in Focus.

and Iraq......

http://news.antiwar.com/2013/02/19/impatience-grows-among-iraqs-sunni-protesters/

Impatience Grows Among Iraq’s Sunni Protesters

Leaders Call for Reforms, Threaten to Push for New Elections

by Jason Ditz, February 19, 2013

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Sunni protesters have endured in Iraq for many weeks now of near-daily demonstrations across the Western part of the nation. The mood is one of increasing impatience, however, as protest leaders seek actual reforms instead of vague promises.

The Maliki government has repeatedly claimed it is “considering” the protesters demands, but its only visible actions have been military moves to stall protests andpublic threats against the protesters.

Leaders say if there is not action soon they will hold a full scale march on Baghdad, aimed at grinding government operations to a halt and forcing parliament to follow through on calls for early elections.

But the Maliki government has regularly accused the protesters of being in league with Sunni terrorists, and is likely to spin efforts to force new elections (an unconstitutional demand, according to them) as a threat to public order justifying a new crackdown.

The current coalition government was pushed by the US ahead of its pullout, a broad collection with Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Maliki’s Shi’ite party and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Shi’ite party all included. Maliki’s centralization, and his refusal to follow through on power-sharing pledges, have left not just Kurds and Sunnis, but increasingly the Sadrist Trend, dissatisfied with the deal and eager to try their luck at a new vote.

 

Iraq Shuts Down 3 Illegal Tunnels to Syria

Fuel Pipeline Attacked in Northern Iraq