http://www.debka.com/article/22736/Barak-Assad%E2%80%99s-fall-is-imminent-Jalili-Assad-weigh-reprisal-for-Israel
Barak: Assad’s fall is imminent. Jalili, Assad weigh reprisal for Israel
DEBKAfile Special Report February 3, 2013, 2:36 PM (GMT+02:00)
Vehicles at the Jamraya complex near Damascus
Israel’s defense minister Ehud Barak had strong words for Iran and its allies at the Munich Security Conference Sunday, Feb. 3, while, in Damascus, Iran’s National Security Director Saeed Jalili conferred urgently with Syrian President Bashar Assad. They discussed activating the secret mutual defense pact binding Iran, Syria, Hizballlah and Hamas in reprisal for the Israeli air strike which reportedly hit a military complex near Damascus last Wednesday.
Without directly confirming the Israel attack on the Jamraya military compound, defense minister Barak said, “…what happened in Syria several days ago… that’s proof that when we said something we mean it… and we say that we don’t think it should be allowed to bring advanced weapons systems into Lebanon.”
Addressing top world diplomats and defense officials, Barak when on to say: "Hizballah from Lebanon and the Iranians are the only allies that Assad has left.” Assad’s fall is “coming imminently” and that “will be a major blow to the Iranians and Hizbollah. I think that they will pay the price," he said.
In Tehran, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani warned Israel Sunday of the consequences of its alleged strike. "The world is witnessing a vengeance carried out by the West, particularly the US, and some backward elements in the region against resistance." Larijani called on countries in the region to distance themselves from Israel and said he believed "the Islamic awakening movement in the region would give a proper response to the Zionist regime."
On the face of it, Tehran looks as though it is passing the buck for “a proper response to the Zionist regime” to fellow Muslims and the Arab world.
However, DEBKAfile’s Iranian and intelligence sources believe the Iranians are simply playing for time to decide how to retaliate for Israel’s reported strike on the military complex which Syria shares with its allies. The man to watch is Jalilee who, we can report exclusively, arrived post haste in Damascus Saturday, Feb. 2, to warn Syrian leaders that Tehran is not willing to forego a military response to an attack which destroyed a whole supply of advanced Iranian weapons Tehran sent to Hizballah in the last two years and which were stored at the Jamraya compound.
The Syrian ruler clearly agrees with his Iranian guest. Sunday, he accused Israel of trying to "destabilize" his country. His first remarks on the reported Israeli air strike in Syria on Wednesday came after he met Jalilee. He added that Syria was able to confront "current threats... and aggression."
The Syrian ruler clearly agrees with his Iranian guest. Sunday, he accused Israel of trying to "destabilize" his country. His first remarks on the reported Israeli air strike in Syria on Wednesday came after he met Jalilee. He added that Syria was able to confront "current threats... and aggression."
Iran, Syria and Hizballah must now decide on the nature of their reprisal, set up the operation and assign forces for its implementation, while taking into account Israel’s options for a counter-response.
Barak’s tough comments in Munich told Tehran that Israel is ready to remove the gloves against Syria and Hizballlah. Iranian leaders heeded his words well while at the same time keeping track of the Syrian opposition leader Mouaz al-Khatib’s meetings in Munich with US Vice President Joe Biden and, for the first time, with the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran, Sergey Lavrov and Ali Akbar Salehi.
Salehi spent 45 minutes with the Syrian dissident on the sidelines of the conference addressed by the Israeli defense minister.
Those meetings were taken as suggesting that the Syrian opposition does not expect the Syrian ruler to fall in the short term and has therefore decided there is no option but to start talking to him about a power-sharing format for ending the Syrian conflict. Tehran is already angling for a role in a Syrian peace settlement.
Salehi spent 45 minutes with the Syrian dissident on the sidelines of the conference addressed by the Israeli defense minister.
Those meetings were taken as suggesting that the Syrian opposition does not expect the Syrian ruler to fall in the short term and has therefore decided there is no option but to start talking to him about a power-sharing format for ending the Syrian conflict. Tehran is already angling for a role in a Syrian peace settlement.
However an Iranian-backed reprisal operation countered by a tough Israel response could upset this promising scenario.
and.........
http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-releases-video-showing-damage-from-israeli-attack/
Syria releases video showing ‘damage from Israeli attack’
Footage broadcast on Syrian TV features burnt out cars and what looks to be destroyed SA-17 missile carrier at purported military research complex
February 2, 2013, 11:56 pm 6
video broadcast on Syrian television Saturday purported to show the fallout from a reported Israeli strike on a Syrian research facility near Damascus several days earlier.
Footage broadcast features ruined buildings, a convoy of abandoned cars and trucks, and even one half-burnt tank, with melancholy oud music playing in the background. The video also appears to show a destroyed missile carrier.
The video ostensibly displays “the effects of the Israeli attack on Jamarya,” northwest of Damascus, where Syria claims the IDF struck a scientific research center overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday.
The footage shows trucks with huge, gaping holes and cars that were almost completely burnt, as well as a building — possibly a research facility — showing clear signs of damage, such as holes in the roof and walls and burn marks on its outer walls.
The video also shows what appears to be a destroyed mobile carrier for an SA-17 anti-aircraft missile battery.
According to foreign media reports, Israel struck a convoy carrying SA-17 missiles from Syria to Lebanon.
The research center is widely believed to have housed military projects. Syria reported the attack on it Wednesday evening, several hours after foreign media said Israeli jets had struck the convoy near the Syrian border with Lebanon.
Israel has expressed fears over the past several months that besieged Syrian President Bashar Assad might try to transfer weapons to Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah, which Jerusalem termed a “red-line,” beyond which it would take action.
Israel has not officially acknowledged that it carried out the raids, although the US has indicated that Israel did so.
On Saturday, former national security adviser Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland confirmed that it was Israel that carried out the strikes on several sites in Syria overnight Tuesday — “and with good reason.”
Speaking at an event in Kfar Saba Saturday, Eiland praised the Israeli government’s decision to carry out the strikes, saying it was “the right decision, despite all the risks.”
According to a report in Time magazine, the Jamarya complex included“warehouses stocked with equipment necessary for the deployment of chemical and biological weapons [and] relatively complicated systems typically manned by specially trained forces.”
Defected Syrian Maj. Gen. Adnan Sillu, previously in charge of the country’s chemical weapons training program, said the site contained non-conventional weapons.
Another defected general, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Aziz Jassem al-Shallal, said Iranian and Russian experts were “habitually present” at the facility.
Iran and Syria have both threatened to retaliate against Israel for the reported attack, and Hezbollah, Russia, Turkey and others have condemned Israel for taking action.
and.....
http://www.juancole.com/2013/02/aleppo-airport-clintonpetraeus.html
video broadcast on Syrian television Saturday purported to show the fallout from a reported Israeli strike on a Syrian research facility near Damascus several days earlier.
Footage broadcast features ruined buildings, a convoy of abandoned cars and trucks, and even one half-burnt tank, with melancholy oud music playing in the background. The video also appears to show a destroyed missile carrier.
The video ostensibly displays “the effects of the Israeli attack on Jamarya,” northwest of Damascus, where Syria claims the IDF struck a scientific research center overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday.
The footage shows trucks with huge, gaping holes and cars that were almost completely burnt, as well as a building — possibly a research facility — showing clear signs of damage, such as holes in the roof and walls and burn marks on its outer walls.
The video also shows what appears to be a destroyed mobile carrier for an SA-17 anti-aircraft missile battery.
According to foreign media reports, Israel struck a convoy carrying SA-17 missiles from Syria to Lebanon.
The research center is widely believed to have housed military projects. Syria reported the attack on it Wednesday evening, several hours after foreign media said Israeli jets had struck the convoy near the Syrian border with Lebanon.
Israel has expressed fears over the past several months that besieged Syrian President Bashar Assad might try to transfer weapons to Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah, which Jerusalem termed a “red-line,” beyond which it would take action.
Israel has not officially acknowledged that it carried out the raids, although the US has indicated that Israel did so.
On Saturday, former national security adviser Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland confirmed that it was Israel that carried out the strikes on several sites in Syria overnight Tuesday — “and with good reason.”
Speaking at an event in Kfar Saba Saturday, Eiland praised the Israeli government’s decision to carry out the strikes, saying it was “the right decision, despite all the risks.”
According to a report in Time magazine, the Jamarya complex included“warehouses stocked with equipment necessary for the deployment of chemical and biological weapons [and] relatively complicated systems typically manned by specially trained forces.”
Defected Syrian Maj. Gen. Adnan Sillu, previously in charge of the country’s chemical weapons training program, said the site contained non-conventional weapons.
Another defected general, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Aziz Jassem al-Shallal, said Iranian and Russian experts were “habitually present” at the facility.
Iran and Syria have both threatened to retaliate against Israel for the reported attack, and Hezbollah, Russia, Turkey and others have condemned Israel for taking action.
Syria: Rebels take Aleppo Airport Road; NYT: Obama Nixed Clinton/Petraeus Plan to Arm Rebels
Posted on 02/03/2013 by Juan
Syria’s revolutionaries are saying that they have taken a key Aleppo district, Sheikh Said, that enables them to block the road to the airport. The Baath regime has been using its airports and air bases to resupply troops in the north. If the rebels can block the use of Aleppo airport for this purpose, they will have a better chance of taking all of the north of the country. They now hold significant swathes of Aleppo, including some military bases that have fallen to them, along much of the territory between Aleppo and the Turkish border, all along the way.
Meanwhile, the opposition met with Russia on Saturday. Since Russia is losing standing in the Middle East for its Syria policy, such a meeting benefits all the parties. But I can’t imagine much practical coming out of it.
Michael R. Gordon and Mark Landler of the New York Times broke the story on Saturday that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had gotten then CIA director David Petraeus’s agreement to a plan to arm, train and support America-friendly revolutionaries in Syria. The plan was scotched by President Obama on the grounds that it could spin out of control and draw the US into an intervention in Syria. Obama was also allegedly worried that a covert operation like that could go bad very publicly and might have a negative impact on his presidential campaign.
I think we now have a concrete difference between what an Obama presidency looks like and what a Hillary Clinton presidency would have looked like. Obama doesn’t like interventions of choice on the ground, and wants the US out of its Middle Eastern land wars. He was happy enough to get out of Iraq altogether. He will be wholly or for the most part out of Afghanistan in a couple of years. His intervention in Libya was forced on him by UK PM David Cameron and former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, and it remained a purely from-the-air affair, with no US military engagement in the country after the fall of dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Obama’s main form of foreign policy interventionism is a) sanctions (e.g. Iran) and b) drones, as in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. These two techniques may appeal to ground-war-averse Obama as a way of avoiding sending in the infantry, though I suspect Washington underestimates the danger that these two tactics can themselves spiral out of control and lead to military engagement.
Clinton pushed hard for the Libya intervention, and apparently she wanted to be much more hands-on with regard to Syria than Obama would let her. And, although the consideration of the electoral campaign has passed, the fear of being drawn into a quagmire has not. This revelation of the NYT underlinesmy argument on a recent edition of “Empire” on Aljazeera English that the US really has no on-the-ground, practical Syria policy, and that rumors of US covert action in Syria have been much exaggerated. (The US does say al-Assad should go and has worked with the revolutionaries on the political side.)
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