http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/goldcore-gold-manipulative-selloff-nice-new-years-gift
GoldCore: Gold in Manipulative Selloff? Nice New Year's Gift
Jan
5
"I'd just love to see what the COT structure looked like after Friday's trading day was done."
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER
The engineered price decline in gold came to a halt less than half an hour before the noon London silver fix during their Friday morning...and the subsequent rally came to an end at the London p.m. gold fix...which was 10:00 a.m. Eastern time.
From there, the gold price got sold down a bit until about 11:35 a.m. in New York before resuming the rally...albeit at a much slower rate. Shortly after 3:00 p.m. the gold price jumped up a few more bucks, before trading sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.
Gold's low price tick of the day in London was around $1,625 spot...and the high tick of the day [$1,659.80 spot] came late in electronic trading in New York.
Gold finished the Friday session at $1,646.80 spot...down $7.00 from Thursday's close. Net volume was immense...around 230,000 contracts.
Of course it's always silver that JPMorgan et al are after...and they nailed it pretty good for the second day in a row. The actual low price tick [around 29.20 spot] came around 10:30 a.m. in London...the time of the a.m. gold fix. From there the silver price pattern pretty much followed the gold price pattern into the close of trading. And, like gold, silver's high print of the day [$30.38 spot] occurred in electronic trading just before the market closed.
Silver actually finished in the green at $30.18 spot...up 8 cents from Thursday's close. Volume was very heavy at around 72,000 contracts.
From there, the gold price got sold down a bit until about 11:35 a.m. in New York before resuming the rally...albeit at a much slower rate. Shortly after 3:00 p.m. the gold price jumped up a few more bucks, before trading sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.
Gold's low price tick of the day in London was around $1,625 spot...and the high tick of the day [$1,659.80 spot] came late in electronic trading in New York.
Gold finished the Friday session at $1,646.80 spot...down $7.00 from Thursday's close. Net volume was immense...around 230,000 contracts.
Silver actually finished in the green at $30.18 spot...up 8 cents from Thursday's close. Volume was very heavy at around 72,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened at 80.50 on Thursday evening...and by 11:30 a.m. in London on their Friday morning, it had reached its high of the day, which was around 80.85. It hung in there at that value until just before 8:30 a.m. Eastern time...and then gave up all of those gains during the New York trading session that followed. The index closed almost where it started the day...at 80.49...down an eyelash from Thursday.
* * *
The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 129 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday from within the Comex-approved depositories. Merrill was the only short/issuer...and the lion's share [116 contracts] were stopped by the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan Chase. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report ishere.
After the big withdrawal on Thursday, the GLD ETF showed that an authorized participant added 58,100 troy ounces of gold yesterday. Over at SLV, an authorized participant withdrew 628,824 ounces of silver.
The U.S. Mint had a sales report for the third day running. They sold 8,500 ounces of gold eagles...and another 1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. For the first three days of the year, the mint has sold 65,000 ounce of gold eagles, along with 14,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.
In January of 2012 the mint sold 127,000 ounce of gold eagles...and 13,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. Based on mint sales to date, the January 2012 sales number should be beaten by quite a bit...and they already have in buffaloes. But it's still my opinion that most of these sales happened in December, but were shoved into January. And if I were an American citizen, I'd be buying 2013 silver eagles with both hands the moment they became available.
There was big activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 2,163,705 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 600,440 ounce of the stuff out the door. The link to all that activity is here.
The new Commitment of Trader Report came out yesterday at the usual time...and there were no surprises...and no big news. All the 'juice' will be in the next COT Report...as the engineered price decline began on Wednesday, the day after the cut-off for yesterday's report. As any long-term reader of this daily rant already knows, this is standard operating procedure for JPMorgan et al if they wish to hide their tracks for as long as possible.
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by 1,372 contracts, or about 6.9 million ounces. Ted Butler says that it was pretty much all raptor buying during the reporting week...and that the 'Big 4' didn't change their positions by much. The Commercial net short position is now down to 226.7 million ounces.
After the big withdrawal on Thursday, the GLD ETF showed that an authorized participant added 58,100 troy ounces of gold yesterday. Over at SLV, an authorized participant withdrew 628,824 ounces of silver.
The U.S. Mint had a sales report for the third day running. They sold 8,500 ounces of gold eagles...and another 1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. For the first three days of the year, the mint has sold 65,000 ounce of gold eagles, along with 14,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.
In January of 2012 the mint sold 127,000 ounce of gold eagles...and 13,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes. Based on mint sales to date, the January 2012 sales number should be beaten by quite a bit...and they already have in buffaloes. But it's still my opinion that most of these sales happened in December, but were shoved into January. And if I were an American citizen, I'd be buying 2013 silver eagles with both hands the moment they became available.
There was big activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 2,163,705 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 600,440 ounce of the stuff out the door. The link to all that activity is here.
The new Commitment of Trader Report came out yesterday at the usual time...and there were no surprises...and no big news. All the 'juice' will be in the next COT Report...as the engineered price decline began on Wednesday, the day after the cut-off for yesterday's report. As any long-term reader of this daily rant already knows, this is standard operating procedure for JPMorgan et al if they wish to hide their tracks for as long as possible.
In silver, the Commercial net short position declined by 1,372 contracts, or about 6.9 million ounces. Ted Butler says that it was pretty much all raptor buying during the reporting week...and that the 'Big 4' didn't change their positions by much. The Commercial net short position is now down to 226.7 million ounces.
The 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 239.8 million ounces of silver...which is 13.1 million ounces more than the entire Commercial net short position shown in the paragraph above. On a 'net' basis, these four traders are short 49.0% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...but the truth of the matter is that it's only two traders in the 'Big 4' bullion bank category that really matter...and they are JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of Nova Scotia. It's my guess that they are short about 45% of the entire Comex silver market all by themselves.
The '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 55.2 million ounces of silver...and on a 'net' basis are short an additional 11.3 percentage points of the entire Comex futures market in silver. Adding up the numbers, the 'Big 8' bullion banks are short a bit over 60% of the entire Comex silver market.
In gold, the Commercial net short position actually increased by 995 contracts, or 99,500 troy ounces...and now sits at 18.86 million ounces. The 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 11.81 million ounces of gold, which represents 33.3% of the entire Comex futures market on a 'net' basis. The '5 through 8' bullion banks are short an additional 5.01 million ounces. This represents 14.1% of the entire Comex gold market on a 'net' basis. The total for the 'Big 8' comes to 16.82 million ounces of gold...and 47.4% of the entire Comex gold market.
Here's Nick's most excellent "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart that shows 'all of the above' in graphic form...and the links to the historic [and interactive] COT Reports are here for silver...and here for gold. They take a while to load if you have an older browser.
The '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 55.2 million ounces of silver...and on a 'net' basis are short an additional 11.3 percentage points of the entire Comex futures market in silver. Adding up the numbers, the 'Big 8' bullion banks are short a bit over 60% of the entire Comex silver market.
In gold, the Commercial net short position actually increased by 995 contracts, or 99,500 troy ounces...and now sits at 18.86 million ounces. The 'Big 4' bullion banks are short 11.81 million ounces of gold, which represents 33.3% of the entire Comex futures market on a 'net' basis. The '5 through 8' bullion banks are short an additional 5.01 million ounces. This represents 14.1% of the entire Comex gold market on a 'net' basis. The total for the 'Big 8' comes to 16.82 million ounces of gold...and 47.4% of the entire Comex gold market.
Here's Nick's most excellent "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart that shows 'all of the above' in graphic form...and the links to the historic [and interactive] COT Reports are here for silver...and here for gold. They take a while to load if you have an older browser.
Of course, this is all 'yesterday's news' as Ted Butler is wont to say...as the price action since the Tuesday Comex close has mostly relegated this last COT Report to the trash bin. I would love to have seen what a new COT report would have looked like if the cut-off was at the Comex close yesterday. I'm sure that with the big new low in silver...and the new low in gold...there were huge declines in the Commercial net short position in both metals, as the tech funds puked up their longs...and the Commercial traders covered short positions...and/or went long themselves.
I'll have more on this in 'The Wrap' section further down.
I'll have more on this in 'The Wrap' section further down.
* * *
selected news items....
JPMorgan to BofA Get Delay on Rule Isolating Derivatives
JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. won a delay of Dodd-Frank Act requirements that they wall off some derivatives trades from bank units backed by federal deposit insurance.
Commercial banks including the Wall Street firms may get as long as an additional two years -- until July 2015 -- to comply with the rules, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in a notice yesterday. The so-called push-out provision was included in the 2010 financial-regulation law as a way to limit taxpayer support for risky derivatives trades.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and other regulators need to complete swap rules to allow “federal depository institutions to make well-informed determinations concerning business restructurings that may be necessary,” the OCC said in the notice. Dodd-Frank requires that equity, some commodity and non-cleared credit derivatives be moved into separate affiliates without federal assistance.
Regulators including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had opposed the provision, saying it would drive derivatives to less-regulated entities. In February, the House Financial Services Committee approved with bipartisan support legislation that would let banks keep commodity and equity derivatives in insured units by removing part of the rule.
Well, dear reader, it's a good bet that if all of those listed above were opposed to it, it was probably in the best interests of the investing public. This story showed up on the Bloomberg website early yesterday afternoon...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for our first story of the day. The link is here.
Commercial banks including the Wall Street firms may get as long as an additional two years -- until July 2015 -- to comply with the rules, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in a notice yesterday. The so-called push-out provision was included in the 2010 financial-regulation law as a way to limit taxpayer support for risky derivatives trades.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and other regulators need to complete swap rules to allow “federal depository institutions to make well-informed determinations concerning business restructurings that may be necessary,” the OCC said in the notice. Dodd-Frank requires that equity, some commodity and non-cleared credit derivatives be moved into separate affiliates without federal assistance.
Regulators including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke had opposed the provision, saying it would drive derivatives to less-regulated entities. In February, the House Financial Services Committee approved with bipartisan support legislation that would let banks keep commodity and equity derivatives in insured units by removing part of the rule.
Well, dear reader, it's a good bet that if all of those listed above were opposed to it, it was probably in the best interests of the investing public. This story showed up on the Bloomberg website early yesterday afternoon...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for our first story of the day. The link is here.
White House wins fight to keep drone killings of Americans secret
A federal judge issued a 75-page ruling on Wednesday that declares that the US Justice Department does not have a legal obligation to explain the rationale behind killing Americans with targeted drone strikes.
Siding with the defendants in what can easily be considered as cloaked in skepticism, Judge McMahon writes that the Obama White House has been correct in refusing the FOIA requests filed by the plaintiffs.
"There are indeed legitimate reasons, historical and legal, to question the legality of killings unilaterally authorized by the Executive that take place otherwise than on a 'hot' field of battle," McMahon writes in her ruling. Because her decision must only weigh whether or not the Obama administration has been right in rejecting the FOIA requests, though, her ruling cannot take into consideration what sort of questions — be it historical, legal, ethical or moral — are raised by the ongoing practice of using remote-controlled drones to kill insurgents and, in these instances, US citizens.
"The Alice-in-Wonderland nature of this pronouncement is not lost on me; but after careful consideration, I find myself stuck in a paradoxical situation in which I cannot solve a problem because of contradictory constraints and rules — a veritable Catch-22,” she writes. “I can find no way around the thicket of laws and precedents that effectively allow the Executive Branch of our Government to proclaim as perfectly lawful certain actions that seem on their face incompatible with our Constitution and laws, while keeping the reason for their conclusion a secret.”
This article showed up on the Russia Today website early Thursday morning Moscow time...and is an absolute must read. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and the link is here.
Siding with the defendants in what can easily be considered as cloaked in skepticism, Judge McMahon writes that the Obama White House has been correct in refusing the FOIA requests filed by the plaintiffs.
"There are indeed legitimate reasons, historical and legal, to question the legality of killings unilaterally authorized by the Executive that take place otherwise than on a 'hot' field of battle," McMahon writes in her ruling. Because her decision must only weigh whether or not the Obama administration has been right in rejecting the FOIA requests, though, her ruling cannot take into consideration what sort of questions — be it historical, legal, ethical or moral — are raised by the ongoing practice of using remote-controlled drones to kill insurgents and, in these instances, US citizens.
"The Alice-in-Wonderland nature of this pronouncement is not lost on me; but after careful consideration, I find myself stuck in a paradoxical situation in which I cannot solve a problem because of contradictory constraints and rules — a veritable Catch-22,” she writes. “I can find no way around the thicket of laws and precedents that effectively allow the Executive Branch of our Government to proclaim as perfectly lawful certain actions that seem on their face incompatible with our Constitution and laws, while keeping the reason for their conclusion a secret.”
This article showed up on the Russia Today website early Thursday morning Moscow time...and is an absolute must read. I thank Roy Stephens for sending it...and the link is here.
Three King World News Blogs
The first is with James Turk...and it's headlined "A Black Swan Event, Global Monetary Reset & Chaos". The next blog is with Art Cashin. It bears the title "2013 Predictions, Warnings & Outlook". Lastly is this interview withEric Sprott...and it's entitled "Fed has no Exit Plan & There is no Exit"
Why is Everyone Talking About a Platinum $1 Trillion Coin?
I can't believe the number of readers that sent me this story over the last few days. This has gone viral on the Internet...and it's being talked about even in a lot of main stream media outlets that normally wouldn't touch this sort of thing with a 20-foot barge pole.
Is it for real? I wouldn't bet a nickel on it...and I have no idea what's in theKool-Aid everyone is drinking, as it sounds like b.s. to me...but it has developed a life of its own. If there was a grain of truth to all this, the platinum price would have blown sky high already...which it hasn't. I have four stories on this...and they're linked here, here, here...and here. And once you've read them, take two blue pills and call me in the morning.
Is it for real? I wouldn't bet a nickel on it...and I have no idea what's in theKool-Aid everyone is drinking, as it sounds like b.s. to me...but it has developed a life of its own. If there was a grain of truth to all this, the platinum price would have blown sky high already...which it hasn't. I have four stories on this...and they're linked here, here, here...and here. And once you've read them, take two blue pills and call me in the morning.
Turkish gold exports rise 800 percent on demand from Iran
Turkey's gold exports rose nearly 800 percent last year on the back of soaring sales to Iran and the trade will continue, despite tightening U.S. sanctions on Tehran, Turkey's economy minister said on Friday.
Turkish gold exports rose to $12.7 billion in the first eleven months of 2012 compared to the $1.47 billion exported in the whole of the previous year, Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan told a briefing in Istanbul.
Around half of the exports - $6.5 billion worth - went to Iran, while $4.2 billion went to the United Arab Emirates. Turkey exported just $54 million worth of gold to Iran in 2011.
This very short must read Reuters story was filed from Istanbul yesterday morning around 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. I thank Ulrike Marx for her final contribution to today's column...and the link is here.
Turkish gold exports rose to $12.7 billion in the first eleven months of 2012 compared to the $1.47 billion exported in the whole of the previous year, Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan told a briefing in Istanbul.
Around half of the exports - $6.5 billion worth - went to Iran, while $4.2 billion went to the United Arab Emirates. Turkey exported just $54 million worth of gold to Iran in 2011.
This very short must read Reuters story was filed from Istanbul yesterday morning around 10:30 a.m. Eastern time. I thank Ulrike Marx for her final contribution to today's column...and the link is here.
* * *
¤ THE WRAP
An idea not coupled with action will never get any bigger than the brain cell it occupied. - Arnold H. Glasow
I've got a couple of musical selections for you today...starting off with an 8-year old trumpet-playing prodigy. Here he is blowing a medley of old Herb Alpert tunes...and he sounds just like him, too. This kid is definitely going places...and once his physical size catches up to his playing ability...look out. It's posted over at the wimp.com Internet site...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Going back a lot further in time is this short piano piece by French composer Claude Debussy. He started the composition on the suite that contains this work back in 1890, but he didn't finish or publish it until 1905...and this piece is the third movement of that suite. This as good a recording of this work as you will find anywhere...and you should know it straight away. It's posted on the youtube.com Internet site...and the link is here.
Without doubt, JPMorgan Chase et al managed to flush out a lot more of the technical fund long positions yesterday, as they hit new lows for both gold and silver for this move down. Although they're after as many of the technical fund long holders they can get in all the metals, it's more than obvious...as it has always been...that silver is the metal that always gets pounded the hardest.
Below are the 2-year charts for both gold and silver to put this last 30-day price move in both metals into a longer-term perspective and, as Ted Butler said once again on the phone yesterday..."Are they done to the downside yet???" Nobody knows, but we came a giant step closer with the early price action on Friday. The big surprise for me was that "da boyz" didn't press their advantage in the New York trading session.
And as I mentioned in my discussion on the COT Report, I'd just love to see what the COT structure looked like after Friday's trading day was done...because without doubt, it would look totally different than it did in the report from Tuesday's cut-off.
I've got a couple of musical selections for you today...starting off with an 8-year old trumpet-playing prodigy. Here he is blowing a medley of old Herb Alpert tunes...and he sounds just like him, too. This kid is definitely going places...and once his physical size catches up to his playing ability...look out. It's posted over at the wimp.com Internet site...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Going back a lot further in time is this short piano piece by French composer Claude Debussy. He started the composition on the suite that contains this work back in 1890, but he didn't finish or publish it until 1905...and this piece is the third movement of that suite. This as good a recording of this work as you will find anywhere...and you should know it straight away. It's posted on the youtube.com Internet site...and the link is here.
Without doubt, JPMorgan Chase et al managed to flush out a lot more of the technical fund long positions yesterday, as they hit new lows for both gold and silver for this move down. Although they're after as many of the technical fund long holders they can get in all the metals, it's more than obvious...as it has always been...that silver is the metal that always gets pounded the hardest.
Below are the 2-year charts for both gold and silver to put this last 30-day price move in both metals into a longer-term perspective and, as Ted Butler said once again on the phone yesterday..."Are they done to the downside yet???" Nobody knows, but we came a giant step closer with the early price action on Friday. The big surprise for me was that "da boyz" didn't press their advantage in the New York trading session.
And as I mentioned in my discussion on the COT Report, I'd just love to see what the COT structure looked like after Friday's trading day was done...because without doubt, it would look totally different than it did in the report from Tuesday's cut-off.
(Click on image to enlarge)
From a technical viewpoint, I really liked the 'positive hammers' that yesterday's price action painted on the charts above. But, as I've mentioned on many occasions in this space, the bullion banks can read these charts as well...and can paint any pattern they want when necessary.
But whenever the 'bottom' arrives, it always boils down to what JPMorgan et al will do on the subsequent rally. Will they become the short sellers of last resort once again...like they've been doing for 25 years...or will they stand there with their hands in their pockets, or maybe do some short covering themselves? What they do...and only what they do...will determine how high we go in price...and how fast we get there, once that day arrives.
That pretty much covers what I have to say for the day...and the week. I hope you had the opportunity to 'buy the dip' as I suggested...and if we go lower from here, you should be buying that dip as well. I certainly will be.
See you on Tuesday.
But whenever the 'bottom' arrives, it always boils down to what JPMorgan et al will do on the subsequent rally. Will they become the short sellers of last resort once again...like they've been doing for 25 years...or will they stand there with their hands in their pockets, or maybe do some short covering themselves? What they do...and only what they do...will determine how high we go in price...and how fast we get there, once that day arrives.
That pretty much covers what I have to say for the day...and the week. I hope you had the opportunity to 'buy the dip' as I suggested...and if we go lower from here, you should be buying that dip as well. I certainly will be.
See you on Tuesday.
and.......
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-05/sprott-and-biderman-paper-vs-physical-gold
Sprott And Biderman On Paper Vs. Physical Gold
With gold prices dropping (notably divergent from the ever expanding global central bank balance sheets) but record-breaking levels of physical gold being purchased, we continue to reflect on the other 'Great Rotation' that we suspect is occurring as the New Year begins - that from paper gold to physical gold. Who better to discuss the nuances of this dilemma than Eric Sprott as he outlines to TrimTabs' Charles Biderman the relative strengths and weaknesses of ETFs like GLD and SLV, physical-based ETFs such as PHYS and PSLV, and physical holdings themselves. While the new meme is that the Fed may be considering pulling back (on its 'flow') sooner than expected, reality is far different (as Bill Gross recently agreed with us) and that fact makes the following brief clip even more compelling.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013/01/jobs-report155000-addedspains-pension.html
SATURDAY, JANUARY 5, 2013
Jobs report/155,000 added/Spain's pension funds run out of room to purchase Spanish bonds/ Huge sales in gold from USA Mint in January/
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down $25.90 to finish the comex session at $1648.30. Silver followed gold down by 78 cents to $29.89.
However in the access market both precious metals recovered:
Gold:$1656.80
Silver: $30.18
The trading in gold and silver are manipulated most of the time. The crooks will allow gold and silver to rise on a slow upward projection as the bankers manage their huge shortfall in both gold and silver derivatives. It would be wasteful to spend hours analyzing trading patterns when you have this massive manipulation on your shoulders and the regulators do nothing to correct.
In European news, we learned that Spain's pension funds have loaded up on Spanish bonds and this vehicle has run out of room to purchase more Spanish bonds. Spain will need to raise at least 270 billion euros on the bond market this year with few takers. The Spanish banks are already broke and cannot take on any more Spanish debt. Expect Spain to finally go to the begging trough.The real big news of the day of course is the jobs report which added 155,000 souls to payrolls.
Dave from Denver does a great job dissecting the data and he says that most of the gains are in the service and health sector which receive their revenues directly from government. This will be unsustainable in two months as the Republicans demand cuts in the Medicare/Medicaid spending.We have many commentary on the Fed FOMC minutes which indicated that they might wish to exit from bond purchases by the end of the year or earlier. We are telling you, that it will be impossible for the Fed to exit. The bond market will crash/the stock market will crash and that will force them back in a heartbeat. We will go over these and many over stories but first......................................................................................................................Gold closed down $25.90 to finish the comex session at $1648.30. Silver followed gold down by 78 cents to $29.89.
However in the access market both precious metals recovered:
Gold:$1656.80
Silver: $30.18
The trading in gold and silver are manipulated most of the time. The crooks will allow gold and silver to rise on a slow upward projection as the bankers manage their huge shortfall in both gold and silver derivatives. It would be wasteful to spend hours analyzing trading patterns when you have this massive manipulation on your shoulders and the regulators do nothing to correct.
In European news, we learned that Spain's pension funds have loaded up on Spanish bonds and this vehicle has run out of room to purchase more Spanish bonds. Spain will need to raise at least 270 billion euros on the bond market this year with few takers. The Spanish banks are already broke and cannot take on any more Spanish debt. Expect Spain to finally go to the begging trough.The real big news of the day of course is the jobs report which added 155,000 souls to payrolls.
Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading on Friday.
The total comex gold open interest rose by 1868 contracts from 432,180 up to 434,048. The non active January contract saw it's OI rise by 101 contracts from 166 up to 167. We had 5 delivery notices filed on Thursday so in essence we gained 96 contracts or 9600 oz of gold standing for January delivery.
The next big active month for gold is February and here the OI fell by 1479 contracts from 254,244 down to 252,765. The estimated volume at the gold comex on Friday was huge at 247,988 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday came in at 174,532 which is pretty good. On big raid days, generally volume rises appreciably.The total silver comex OI continues to play to a different drummer than gold. Here the total silver OI complex rose by a very large 1013 contracts from 141,548 up to 142,561. It seems that longs were waiting in the bushes expecting an attack and they responded by purchasing contracts on the cheap. The longs in silver seem quite impervious to the price. The non active January contract month saw it's OI rise by 9 contracts from 42 up to 51. We had 1 delivery notice filed on Thursday so we gained 8 contracts or 40,000 oz of silver standing for delivery in January. The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI rose by 298 contracts from 80,604 up to 80,920. The estimated volume on Friday was extremely strong at 63,799. The confirmed volume on Thursday was also good at 51,369.
Comex gold figures
Jan 4.2013 The January contract month
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
80,375.000 (JPM) exactly 2.5 tonnes
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
100.65 (Brinks)
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
19,257.85 (HSBC, Brinks, Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today
20 (2000)
No of oz to be served (notices)
147 (14,700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
760 (76,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory
this month
84,683.10 oz
Comex gold figures
Jan 4.2013 The January contract month
|
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 600,440.37 (Brinks, HSBC) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2,163,705.81 (Brinks,HSBC,Scotia) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 7 (35,000 oz) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 44 (220,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 308 (1,540,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | nil |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 1,347,201.02 |
* * *
At 3:30 pm the CME released it's COT report ending Monday the 31st of January.
First the gold COT:
Our large speculators;
Those large speculators that are long in gold decided to pitch 1776 contracts from their long side.
Those large speculators that have been short in gold covered a very tiny 199 contracts.
Our commercials:
Those commercials that are long in gold and are close to the physical scene added 3731 contracts to their long side.Those commercials who are perennially short in gold added another 4726 contracts to their short side setting the scene up for the raid we experienced on Thursday and Friday this week.
First the gold COT:
Gold COT Report - Futures
| ||||||
Large Speculators
|
Commercial
|
Total
| ||||
Long
|
Short
|
Spreading
|
Long
|
Short
|
Long
|
Short
|
198,660
|
50,141
|
21,653
|
143,210
|
331,869
|
363,523
|
403,663
|
Change from Prior Reporting Period
| ||||||
-1,776
|
-199
|
-2,531
|
3,731
|
4,726
|
-576
|
1,996
|
Traders
| ||||||
179
|
65
|
64
|
56
|
47
|
265
|
156
|
Small Speculators
| ||||||
Long
|
Short
|
Open Interest
| ||||
64,468
|
24,328
|
427,991
| ||||
2,267
|
-305
|
1,691
| ||||
non reportable positions
|
Change from the previous reporting period
| |||||
COT Gold Report - Positions as of
|
Monday, December 31, 2012
| |||||
Our large speculators;
Those large speculators that are long in gold decided to pitch 1776 contracts from their long side.
Those large speculators that have been short in gold covered a very tiny 199 contracts.
Our commercials:
Those commercials that are long in gold and are close to the physical scene added 3731 contracts to their long side.Those commercials who are perennially short in gold added another 4726 contracts to their short side setting the scene up for the raid we experienced on Thursday and Friday this week.
Our small specs:
The small specs that have been long in gold added 2267 contracts to their long side
Those smalls specs that have been short in gold covered a tiny 305 contracts.
Conclusion:
from a commercial vantage point, more bearish as the commercials went net short by 995 contracts.
and silver COT ......
Silver COT Report: Futures
| |||||
Large Speculators
|
Commercial
| ||||
Long
|
Short
|
Spreading
|
Long
|
Short
| |
38,291
|
9,104
|
31,177
|
45,415
|
90,751
| |
-1,329
|
127
|
797
|
1,113
|
-259
| |
Traders
| |||||
72
|
30
|
53
|
38
|
34
| |
Small Speculators
|
Open Interest
|
Total
| |||
Long
|
Short
|
141,489
|
Long
|
Short
| |
26,606
|
10,457
|
114,883
|
131,032
| ||
157
|
73
|
738
|
581
|
665
| |
non reportable positions
|
Positions as of:
|
137
|
101
| ||
Monday, December 31, 2012
|
© SilverSeek.com
| ||||
Here are your major physical stories:
The farce begins as gold falls 3.3% at 2 pm Thursday and then falters throughout the night.
The reason: the fed suggests that QE may end this year.
The brainless media just do not get it. With the USA entertaining a $1.5 trillion deficit, how on earth will the government finance this deficit if:
a) no country is willing to buy USA debt and
b) the Fed stops it's purchases?
(your early morning comment on gold courtesy of Ben Traynor)
The farce begins as gold falls 3.3% at 2 pm Thursday and then falters throughout the night.
The reason: the fed suggests that QE may end this year.
The brainless media just do not get it. With the USA entertaining a $1.5 trillion deficit, how on earth will the government finance this deficit if:
a) no country is willing to buy USA debt and
b) the Fed stops it's purchases?
(your early morning comment on gold courtesy of Ben Traynor)
 By: Ben Traynor, BullionVault |
-- Posted Friday, 4 January 2013 | | Source: GoldSeek.com
London Gold Market Report
WHOLESALE Gold Prices fell below $1630 per ounce Friday morning in London, their lowest level since last August and 3.3% below where they were 24 hours earlier, while stocks and commodities also fell and the Dollar gained after Federal Reserve minutes appeared to suggest some policymakers see a case for ending quantitative easing this year.
At its policy meeting last month, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to buy $45 billion of US Treasury bonds per month to support the economy, adding to the $40 billion a month of agency mortgage backed security purchases announced in September.
The minutes from that meeting published Thursday however show that some FOMC members "thought that it would probably be appropriate to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013".
"The news that some policymakers suggested that the Fed could withdraw QE before the end of year, that put a dent on one of the underpinnings on gold, which is expansionary monetary policy," says Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at US broker-dealer Janney Montgomery Scott, which managed $15 billion in assets.
"The Fed stimulus program has been a key driver behind gold," agrees Ed Meir, metals analyst at brokerage INTL FCStone.
"Removing such an instrumental prop could impact the precious metal dramatically, especially if it was done in rather heavy doses. However, the market that will reel most is the US Treasury market, although commodity in general should feel a blow-back as well through a stronger dollar and/or weaker equity prices."
Like gold, silver also fell after the FOMC minutes were published, hitting a low of $29.26 an ounce this morning – a daily drop of 5.8% and also its lowest level since August.
Heading into the weekend, gold looked set for a 1.9% weekly drop by Friday lunchtime in London, while silver was down 2.7% on the week.
Broad commodity prices also fell Friday, with oil down more than $1 a barrel on the day, while the US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the Dollar against other major currencies, touched a six-week high.
Elsewhere in the Fed minutes, the Summary of Economic Projections shows most FOMC members do not expect the Fed will need to raise interest rates until 2015 at the earliest, at which time they forecast the unemployment rate will have fallen to the 6.5% target announced last month.
Later today, the latest US nonfarm payrolls report is due out at 08.30 EST, with the market expecting it to say 150,000 jobs were added to the US economy last month, according to the consensus forecast among analysts. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.7%.
Over in Europe, stock markets extended yesterday's losses this morning, giving up more of the gains that followed Tuesday's US fiscal cliff deal.
Service sector growth in France and Germany slowed last month, according to purchasing managers index data published Friday, while UK services activity shrank.
HSBC meantime has cut is gold price forecast for 2013. HSBC analysts now say they expect gold to average $1760 an ounce this year, down from the previous forecast of $1850, although they expect to see prices gain from current levels.
"We believe that gold prices will recover this year and retain a pronounced bullish posture," a note from the bank says.
"[Fed interest rates]are likely to remain at current low levels until sometime in 2015 [and] other major central banks have also adopted conventional or unconventional easing of monetary policy."
HSBC's silver price forecast was left unchanged at $32 an ounce average price this year.
Ben Traynor
and....
The Other "Mint" Campaign Starts Off With A Bang: US Mint Sells 50,000 Ounces Of Gold On First Day Of Year
And we're off to the races. Despite, or maybe thanks to, the relentless collapse in paper gold prices, US retail continues to ignore the day to day fluctuations in the stated value of the shiny metal (most of it driven by the BIS' Benoit Gilson), and instead has learned to take advantage of every drop to BTFD. As the US mint website reports, the very first day of 2013 saw a whopping 50,000 gold ounce sales, and another 7,000 on the second, which is nearly the entire amount sold by the mint in December, and just shy of half in all of January 2012. Which in turn means that gold raids are now becoming counterproductive: instead of disincentivizing retail purchases, they are merely accelerating them, in the process leading to ever more paper to physical currency conversion. The "trillion dollar platinum coin" may well be the dumbest idea around, but the "one ounce gold coin" idea is rapidly becoming the most popular one, shared by all who see that the only possible outcome for the "developed world" is more ceaseless devaluation of every paper currency in the world.
 
(h/t Alex Gloy)
and.....
Jim Sinclair: Campaign to discredit gold indicates worst desperation yet
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-01-04 18:29. Section: Daily Dispatches
1:25p ET Friday, January 4, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Jim Sinclair writes to a Comrade in Golden Arms today:
"Have you ever considered how bad it must be out there if the Fed and gold banks are working so hard to paint gold bearish and the U.S. dollar bullish? It must be fundamentally the worst of the various economic crises in my more than 50 years in gold.
"There has never been this level of effort on all fronts to discredit gold. That must reflect the dire condition of the balance sheets of the Western world's financial industry. Anyone with eyes in their head can see this move has been contrived. In my opinion profit on the short side is a secondary motive."
Sinclair's commentary is headlined "Jim's Mailbox" and it's posted at JSMineSet here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
and......
http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-sinclair-the-federal-reserve-has-no-practical-option-to-end-qe-without-collapsing-financial-system/
JIM SINCLAIR: THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS NO PRACTICAL OPTION TO END QE WITHOUT COLLAPSING FINANCIAL SYSTEM |
The legendary Jim Sinclair has sent another email alert to subscribers regarding the take-down in the gold and silver markets Thursday on the release of the December Fed minutes.
No comments:
Post a Comment