Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Ed Steer's Gold & Silver report for January 16 , 2013 - news and data for both gold and silver - considerable detail regarding Germany plan to bring its overseas gold back home.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-16/it-will-take-fed-seven-years-deliver-300-tons-german-gold


It Will Take The Fed Seven Years To Deliver 300 Tons Of German Gold

Tyler Durden's picture




With the market yet another algo-controlled snoozer, programmed to close the S&P just green (as otherwise confidence in central planning may fail), the key things we learned today are as follows:
Obama proposed 23 "gun controling" executive actions, which do little to actually control guns - that part falls to Congress, where the proposal will be promptly killed - but which will add some $4.5 billion to US spending, and which will "push for further action on his health care law, including insisting on the kind of mental health coverage states must provide under their Medicaid programs."
  • $4 billion for the president’s proposal “to help keep 15,000 cops on the streets in cities and towns across the country.” (That is roughly $266,000 per police officer.)
  • $20 million to “give states stronger incentives to make [relevant] data available [for background checks] … “$50 million for this purpose in FY2014”
  • “$14 million to help train 14,000 more police officers and other public and private personnel to respond to active shooter situations.”
  • “$10 million for the Centers for Disease Control to conduct further research, including investigating the relationship between video games, media images, and violence.”
  • $20 million to expand the National Violent Death Reporting System.
  • $150 million to “put up to 1,000 new school resource officers and school counselors on the job.”
  • What can one say: politics, fully, theatrically and embarrassingly "endorsed" by the children sitting behind the president.
    * * *
    But the biggest news of the day comes from the official Buba announcement that, in its official capacity as a prudent central bank, it - as first of many - is looking to repatriate some 300 tons of gold from the New York Fed. That, however, is not today's news - that was Monday's news.
    What is news is that courtesy of the supplied calendar of events in the Buba statementit will take the Fed some seven years to procure Germany's 300 tons of gold. This is the same Fed that, in its own words, holds some "216 million troy ounces of gold" or some 6720 tons, in its vault 80 feet below ground level.
    Putting the above in perspective, the amount of gold that Germany will have to wait 7 years for is shown in red. The amount of gold the Fed supposedly holds, is shown in yellow with a shade of tungsten. Why it will take the Fed 7 years to part with an amount of gold that is less than 5% of its total holdings is anyone's guess...
    unless of course, the bulk of the gold in the column on the right has been rehypothecated numerous times to serve as collateral for countless counterparties, and it is no longer clear just who own what to anyone.
    We can only wonder how many centuries it will take the New York Fed to deliver all the gold held by third parties in its vault, once the demand notices start rushing in...
    For all those curious how the Fed itself describes the gold vault and its contents, can read more in the pamphet below:


















http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-16/bundesbank-to-repatriate-674-tons-of-gold-to-germany-by-2020.html


Bundesbank to Repatriate 674 Tons of Gold to Germany by 2020

The Bundesbank will repatriate 674 metric tons of gold from vaults in Paris and New Yorkby 2020 to restore public confidence in the safety of Germany’s reserves.
The phased relocation of the gold, currently worth about 27 billion euros ($36 billion), will begin this year and result in half of Germany’s reserves being stored in Frankfurt by the end of the decade, the Bundesbank said in a statement today. It will bring home all 374 tons of its gold held at the Banque de France and a further 300 tons from the New York Federal Reserve, it said. Holdings at the Bank of England will remain unchanged.

“With this new storage plan, the Bundesbank is focusing on the two primary functions of the gold reserves: to build trust and confidence domestically, and the ability to exchange gold for foreign currencies at gold trading centers abroad within a short space of time,” the Bundesbank said. It said the complete withdrawal of reserves from Paris reflects the fact that Germany no longer depends on France as a financial center to exchange gold because both nations use the euro.
Germany’s Audit Court sparked a debate about the country’s gold reserves last year when it called on the Bundesbank to take stock of its holdings abroad, saying their existence had never been verified. German gold reserves, the second-largest in the world after the U.S., amounted to 3,391 tons as of Dec. 31 and were valued at 137.5 billion euros.

‘A Lot of Emotion’

“In Germany, a lot of emotion is attached to the topic of gold reserves,” Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele said at a press conference in Frankfurt. “The Bundesbank has managed the gold reserves with great caution and will continue to do so.”
The Bundesbank is negotiating auditing rights with its partner central banks. Thiele said he visited all storage locations last year and the returning gold will be examined. He declined to comment on the cost of the transfers, saying only it is “economically tolerable for the Bundesbank.”
While German gold is stored for free in New York and Paris, the Bank of England charges between 500,000 euros and 550,000 euros a year.

Thiele said the decision to repatriate all German gold from Paris “won’t cause any diplomatic problems” and that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and his French counterpart Christian Noyer had discussed the decision.




and.....




http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/pimco-s-gross-ponders-if-bundesbank-gold-move-means-central-banks-don-t-trust-each-other


Pimco’s Gross Ponders if Bundesbank Gold Move Means Central Banks Don’t Trust Each Other

Jan
16
"I think that the New York Fed would be at the top of the list of least trustworthy...at least from a European perspective"


¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER

In fits and starts, the gold price worked its way higher through most of the Far East trading day on their Tuesday...and then popped even higher at the London open.
That rally got crushed under an avalanche of not-for-profit sellers, as volume was monstrous in both gold and silver up until 9:00 a.m. in London.  After that, gold traded more or less sideways until the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time close of Comex trading in New York...except for the obligatory sell off/rally going into [and out of] the London p.m. gold fix.  Gold then got sold off a bit into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close.
The high tick [$1,686.20 spot] came at 12:35 p.m. Eastern...and Tuesday's low came early in Far East trading.
The gold price closed at $1,679.90 spot...up $12.10.  Of course it would have finished materially higher than that if left in the hands of the free market.  Net volume was around 126,000 contracts, with about a third of that coming before 9:00 a.m. in London.
Silver rallied along the same price path as gold right up until shortly before 9:00 a.m. in London as well.  From that point, silver traded sideways for a couple hours...and then sold down to its London low, which came at 1:00 p.m. GMT...8:00 a.m. in New York.
Once the London p.m. gold fix was in, silver rallied up to its high of the day, which came just moments before the 1:30 p.m. Comex close in New York.  It nearly goes without saying that it got sold off from there into the electronic close.
Silver's low tick occurred in early Far East trading as well...and the high tick, at least according to Kitco, was $31.71 which, quite frankly I find hard to believe...because Kitco recorded the low tick at $30.21 which is obviously incorrect.
Silver closed at $31.37 spot...up 29 cents from Monday's close.  Volume was pretty decent at around 50,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened at 79.50...and hit its low of 79.40 almost at the London open.  From that low, it worked its way very slowly higher...and then jumped up about 25 basis points shortly before 2:00 p.m. in New York when that little European twit, Jean-Claude Juncker opened his mouth and said something about a vastly over-valued euro...and all and sundry hit the sell euro/buy dollar button simultaneously.
The high tick...around 79.82...came at 2:00 p.m. in New York...and then slid into the close.  The dollar index closed at 79.77...up 27 basis points from Monday.

*****

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that zero gold and 22 silver contracts were posted for delivery within the Comex-approved depositories tomorrow.
There was a small withdrawal from GLD yesterday, as an authorized participant took out 29,047 troy ounces of gold.  There were no reported changes in SLV.  But after I had filed today's column at 5:20 a.m. Eastern time this morning, on a whim I decided to check SLV just one more time.  Low and behold it showed that there was an update...as an authorized participant had deposited 967,280 troy ounces of silver.  I normally check both GLD and SLV around 9 p.m. New York time...and why SLV would be updated many hours after both North America and the U.K. are sound asleep, is a mystery to me.
There was another sales report from the U.S. Mint yesterday...and this one was somewhat more modest than we are used to seeing lately.  They sold 2,500 ounces of gold eagles...and 50,000 silver eagles.
It was a reasonably quiet day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday.  They reported receiving 336,241 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 155,641 ounces of the stuff out the door.  The link to that activity is here.

****

Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way yesterday...and it certainly needs no explanation from me.


and selected news items.....

Fitch warns U.S. AAA at risk from debt ceiling struggle

There is a material risk the United States would lose its triple-A if there is a repeat of 2011 wrangling over raising the country's self-imposed debt ceiling, rating firm Fitch said on Tuesday.
"If anything the pressure on the U.S. rating is increasing," Fitch's head of sovereign ratings David Riley said at a conference hosted by the firm.
"If we have a repeat of the August 2011 debt ceiling crisis we will place the U.S. rating under review. There will be a material risk of the U.S rating coming down," he added.
Material risk???  What a charade.  It's junk already, as none of this debt is ever going to get repaid by any nation with a currency whose value even remotely resembles what it's worth today.  The above three paragraphs is all there is to this Reuters story that was posted on their website very early Tuesday morning Eastern time...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for our first story of the day.  The link is here.
Ambrose Evans Pritchard has more lengthy commentary on this subject in a piece posted at the telegraph.co.uk Internet site yesterday afternoon GMT that Roy Stephens sent me.  The link to that is here.


Acting Budget Director Jeff Zients told Ryan in a letter delivered Friday that the budget will not be delivered by Feb. 4, as required by law.

Zients blamed the delay on the late passage of the “fiscal cliff” deal, and wrote that the administration is “working diligently on our budget request.” 

Under the law, President Obama must submit a budget by the first Monday in February, but he has met the deadline only once. The annual budget submission is supposed to start a congressional budgeting process, but that has also broken down. The Senate last passed a budget resolution in 2009.

This news item appeared on thehill.com Internet site on Monday evening...and I found it in yesterday's edition of the King Report.  The link is here.


French capital flight spikes as Hollande hits business

Fresh data from the Banque de France show a sudden rise in outflows in October and November, registered in the so-called Target2 payments system of the European Central Bank.
Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said the net loss of funds was €53bn (£43.8bn) over the two months, roughly the period when Mr. Holland unveiled a string of tax rises and suffered a collapse in relations with French business.
A key gauge of the French money supply -- six-month real M1 -- has been contracting at an accelerating rate ever since Mr. Holland's election in May.
It has fallen to levels last seen in the depths of the crisis in 2008. France's money data is now flashing more serious warnings than numbers in Italy or Spain. "Taken together, it is clear that there has been a major loss of confidence and funds have been pulling money out of the country," said Mr. Ward.
This is another Ambrose Evans Pritchard offering.  It showed up on The Telegraph's website late last night GMT.  It's also courtesy of Roy Stephens...and the link is here.


Four King World News Blogs/Audio Interviews

First comes this blog with James Turk...and it's entitled "German Repatriation of Gold & What to Expect Next".  Next is Bill Fleckenstein.  It's headlined "Gold & Silver Set Up For an Explosive 2013".  The third blog is with UBS analyst Peter Lee...and it bears the title "Top UBS Analyst Predicts Carnage for the US Dollar & Equities".  And lastly is this audio interview withJohn Hathaway.


Handelsblatt report translated; and a statement by German gold repatriation advocates

An English translation by the German financial journalist Lars Schall of yesterday's report in Handelsblatt about the Bundesbank's plan to retrieve German gold vaulted abroad, and, second, a response by Peter Boehringer, founder of the German "Repatriate Our Gold" campaign.
All of this was posted in a GATA release early yesterday morning Eastern time...and the link is here.


Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris in watershed moment

Germany's Bundesbank is to repatriate gold reserves held abroad to tighten control and combat currency crises in the future, pulling a chunk of its holdings from New York and all its bullion from Paris.
The move marks an extraordinary breakdown in trust between leading central banks and has set off ferment among gold enthusiasts, with some comparing it with France's withdrawal of gold from the US under President Charles de Gaulle as the Bretton Woods currency system crumbled in the early 1970s.
Handelsblatt said the Bundesbank will announce on Wednesday that it intends to relocate the gold to vaults in Frankfurt, said by insiders to include parts of the old archive library. Germany has 3,396 tons of gold worth roughly £115 billion, the world's second-largest holding after the US. Most of the reserves were stored abroad for safety during the Cold War.
Well, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard couldn't let this pass without comment...and here's what he had to say about it early yesterday evening GMT.  I found the story in a GATA release...and it's a must read for sure.  The link to thetelegraph.co.uk Internet site is here.


MarketWatch permits questions about official gold reserves

Goodbye, Big Apple. Adieu, Paris. It seems the Bundesbank could finally be ready to bow to some longstanding public pressure and bring its foreign gold reserves home.
Germany's Handeslblatt newspaper claimed Monday night that the Bundesbank has developed a new strategy that involves fewer gold bars flung afar. It seems the original reason for holding its gold at the New York Federal Reserve and other central banks -- in places for decades as a measure of security -- no longer holds up. The central bank's press office said a news conference is planned for Wednesday morning, and the topic will be gold reserves.
The Bundesbank traditionally keeps a veil of secrecy around gold, making details on its plans eagerly anticipated.
Thorsten Polleit, Frankfurt-based chief economist at Degussa, a precious-metals firm, said the public has been long demanding an audit of the German gold reserves and repatriation of those reserves.
This marketwatch.com story was posted on their Internet site yesterday...and is posted in this GATA release linked here.  I'm not posting the story directly from the marketwatch.com Internet site, because every time I clicked on it, it crashed my computer...and I don't want that happening to you.


Pimco’s Gross ponders if Bundesbank gold move means central banks don’t trust each other

Pimco chief Bill Gross is tweeting about Germany’s reported plan to repatriate its gold reserves.
PIMCO ‏@PIMCO  Gross: Report claims Germany moving gold from NY/Paris back to Frankfurt. Central banks don’t trust each other?
The link to this very short marketwatch.com story was sent to me by Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx...and the link is here.


James Turk: Central Banks Losing War on Gold

HardAssetsInvestor: What is the issue in the gold market that most concerns you?
James Turk: The biggest issue is government policy. It’s been quite clear that governments have been trying to keep the gold price from rising. But it’s inevitable the gold price will rise when national currencies are being debased, as they all are being now. And rather than let the free-market forces take over, governments are trying to deny reality. They're trying to force the market into thinking that gold really isn't worth what the market says it’s worth. Governments are engaging in anti-gold propaganda and various interventions. It’s exactly like the 1960s, which I lived through and remember well.
HAI: Why would a central bank, which presumably is also buying gold for its reserves, want the price to be lower? Isn't that an investment that the bank has as well?
Turk: First of all, gold is not an investment...it’s money. It’s not an investment because it’s a sterile asset. It doesn’t generate cash flow. It doesn’t have a balance sheet, management team, PE/ratio or anything like that. And in fact, gold doesn’t create wealth. Money doesn’t create wealth until you put it at risk. Money only creates wealth if you invest it or you lend it or you deposit it. But gold itself doesn’t create wealth. Dollars don’t create wealth unless you deposit them in a bank, lend it to somebody, or invest it in securities. It’s the same thing with gold.
This excellent interview with James was posted on the indexuniverse.comInternet site yesterday...and I thank Randall Reinwasser for finding it for us.  It was obviously done before word came down from Germany about their gold repatriation plans...but it's still worth reading nonetheless...and the link ishere.

Amplats shuts mines, axes 14,000 jobs and sends platinum prices skyrocketing

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the platinum miner that was hit by a wave of violent strikes last year, announced Tuesday its intentions to close and sell off several of its mines in South Africa, as part of a long-awaited review of operations.
The world’s top platinum producer by volume said it will start by shutting down four shafts in Rustenburg and divesting from its Union mine complex in Limpopo.
With 14,000 jobs at risk, the move is likely to have major implications for South Africa’s unsettled labour relations. The plan will also impact global markets, as platinum supply will decrease significantly.
This story showed up on the mining.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Marshall Angeles for sending it along.  The link is here.


South Africa's gold output fell by 32.2% in November

South Africa's gold output fell by 32.2% in volume terms in November, highlighting the impact of illegal strikes, while total mineral production rose 1.1% compared with the same month last year, data showed on Tuesday.
Production of non-gold minerals was 4.5% lower, Statistics South Africa said. Production of platinum group metals climbed 3% in November.
Those two paragraphs are all there is to this short item posted on themineweb.com Internet site yesterday...and the link is here.


Why the Silver Manipulation MUST End by Ted Butler

A long time subscriber asked a question this week that I would imagine may be on many minds: “Ted, you have frequently stated that all manipulations must end. Why is that? After 25 years it still appears to be going strong. Why can’t it go on for another 25 years, or for infinity?”
That’s a great question. First, let me define all manipulations as being commodity price manipulations, as opposed to manipulations of other things. We have documented experience in such commodity market manipulations over the past decades, including copper, soybeans, potatoes and even silver in 1980, to the upside. All these previous manipulations did end and ended dramatically, but I admit that doesn’t prove conclusively, by itself, that such manipulations must end.
What I think mandates that all commodity price manipulations must end is the law of supply and demand. Actually, this law would be better termed the law of supply and demand and price, because supply and demand are balanced by the fulcrum of price. If a price is set artificially too high, eventually supply increases and demand decreases to the point where the price must collapse. Likewise, if a price is set artificially too low (as I allege in silver), eventually supply is reduced and demand is increased to the point where the price must explode.
This extensive excerpt from Ted Butler's latest commentary to his paying subscribers was posted on the goldsilverworlds.com Internet site yesterday...and is a must read.  The link is here.


*****

¤ THE WRAP

The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth. - H.L. Mencken
It was another day where JPMorgan et al went short against all comers in Far East and early London trading yesterday, because if they hadn't, the precious metals would have launched skyward.
Since yesterday was the cut-off for this week's Commitment of Traders Report...there will undoubtedly be deterioration in the Commercial net short positions in both gold and silver when that report is posted on the CFTC's website Friday afternoon in New York.
But, having said that, there's no question in my mind that there are big changes going on behind the scenes in the precious metals world, as the move by Germany to repatriate its gold has send shock waves through the entire financial system in general...and the world's largest central banks in particular.
Now that Germany has made the move, it's only a matter of time...and not too much time at that...before other countries will make the same move.  Then we'll find out how much gold there really is in those central bank vaults.  As Bill Gross and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said, it's obvious that the trust between the world's central bankers is starting to seriously erode...and I think that the New York Fed would be at the top of the list of least trustworthy...at least from a European perspective...and most likely other areas of the world as well.
Yesterday in this space I made note of the excellent work of German financial analyst Lars Schall.  In the process I inadvertently forget to mention the equally excellent efforts of Peter Boehringer et al over at the German Precious Metal Association.  They were responsible for the "Repatriate our Gold" movement in Germany...and the link to their website is here.
Both gold and silver are now comfortably above their respective 50-day moving averages...and both platinum and palladium are miles above their respective 200-day moving averages.  But how high we go from here...and how fast we get there...is difficult to tell, as it's obvious that all these rallies in the precious metals are being met with ferocious resistance by JPMorgan et al.  However, unless something comes out of left field in the days and weeks ahead...and it just might...these rallies will probably suffer the same fates they've always suffered...and for the same reason...and by the same group of short selling crooks.
In overnight trading on their Wednesday in the Far East, nothing much happened price wise until around 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time...about an hour before the London open.  At that point, all metals began to head lower...and are down from Tuesday's close now that London has been open for a couple of hours.  Volumes are slightly elevated in both gold and silver...and I can tell by the lack of roll-overs that virtually all of this trading is of the high frequency variety...so it's not real trading per se...it's trading for price management purposes.  The dollar index is flat.
As I hit the 'send' button at 5:20 a.m. Eastern time, I haven't heard a peep out of Germany about the gold repatriation story...and it's already after 11:00 a.m. over there, so it looks like that will break after I file today's column...and should be all over the Internet by the time I get out of bed later this morning.
That's it for today...and I'll see you here tomorrow.




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