http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/02/turkey-syria-chemical-weapons-fears
Turkey requests Nato missile defences amid Syria chemical weapons fears
Turkish officials say they have evidence Assad regime could resort to ballistic missiles if air campaign against rebels fails
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A Dutch Patriot missile installation. The Dutch and German parliaments are expected to approve the deployment of Patriot systems in Turkey this week. Photograph: Robert Vos/EPA
Turkey has asked for Nato Patriot missile defences to be deployed on its territory after receiving intelligence that the Syrian government was contemplating the use of missiles, possibly with chemical warheads, Turkish officials have told the Guardian.
The officials said they had credible evidence that if the Syrian government's aerial bombardment against opposition-held areas failed to hold the rebels back, Bashar al-Assad's regime could resort to missiles and chemical weapons in a desperate last effort to survive.
The Turks believe that the regime's Soviet-era Scuds and North Korean SS-21 missiles would be aimed principally at opposition areas but could easily stray across the border, as Syrian army artillery shells and mortars have done.
A missile, especially with a chemical warhead, would represent a far greater threat to Turkish border communities, and so Ankara decided last month to ask Nato to supply Patriot missile defence systems, which can spot an incoming missile and intercept it.
"We have intelligence from difference sources that the Syrians will use ballistic missiles and chemical warheads," a senior Turkish official said. "First they sent the infantry in against the rebels and they lost a lot of men, and many changed sides. Then they sent in the tanks, and they were taken out by anti-tank missiles. So now it's air power. If that fails it will be missiles, perhaps with chemical warheads. That is why we asked Nato for protection."
The New York Times reported that western intelligence officials had spotted new signs of activity around Syrian military sites where chemical weapons are stored. A senior US official was quoted as saying: "[T]hey're doing some things that suggest they intend to use the weapons. It's not just moving stuff around. These are different kind of activities."
The Syrian regime is believed to have stocks of mustard gas, sarin nerve gas and possibly VX, another nerve agent. Western governments have warned Assad that any use of these weapons would trigger direct military intervention against him. So far, western officials say there are no signs of the regime taking the final steps of preparing chemical artillery shells, missiles or aircraft bombs for use.
The deployment of Dutch and German Patriot systems is due to be voted on by those countries' parliaments this week, and Turkish diplomats expect it to be approved. The same two countries supplied the launchers and missiles the last time Patriots were deployed in Turkey, in 2003 during the Iraq war.
In recent days the rebel Free Syrian Army has succeeded in shooting down Syrian government aircraft with shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles, in a potential turning point, but Turkey still expects a protracted struggle for the upper hand in the bloody civil war, in which it estimates 50,000 people have died.
Turkish officials still believe the best chance of a breakthrough that would cut short the conflict would be for Russia to withdraw its backing for Assad, forcing the Syrian president, his family and immediate entourage into exile, and thereby removing the most serious obstacle to talks between the opposition and the government.
Russia has blocked any punitive UN security council measures and has supplied the Syrian regime with arms and economic support. In recent weeks it is reported to have flown tonnes of freshly printed banknotes to allow Damascus to pay its soldiers. But Turkish officials believe Russian backing for the Syrian leader is finally fading. "Privately they have been telling us they that they accept he is going to go," a senior official said.
Russian president Vladimir Putin is expected to fly to Turkey on Monday for bilateral talks with the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which Erdogan will keep up the pressure for the Russians to pull the plug on its closest Middle East ally. "We are asking the Russians whether or not they want to help build a stable Syria after Assad," a Turkish official said.
A regional peace initiative launched by Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, in August, involving Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, foundered on Saudi objections to Iranian involvement. Both Egypt and Turkey, however, believe that Iran has to be engaged in the search for a peace deal as it is Assad's only regional ally and an important source of weapons.
Turkey has sustained the effort by organising three sets of trilateral talks: Turkey, Iran and Egypt, whose leaders met in Islamabad late last month to discuss the Syrian crisis; Turkey, Iran and Russia; and Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Ankara believes that all those relationships will be vital in rebuilding Syria after the conflict, but that Russia's role will be decisive in bringing it to an end.
and....
Unusual activity at Syrian chemical weapons sites amid rumors Assad is dead or fled
DEBKAfile Special Report December 2, 2012, 11:44 AM (GMT+02:00)
Syrian WMD stores
Western intelligence officers were seeing new signs of activity at Syrian chemical weapons sites, they told the New York Times Sunday, Dec. 2. “It’s in some ways similar to what they’ve done before,” a senior U.S. intelligence official said. “But they’re doing some things that suggest they intend to use the weapons. It’s not just moving stuff around. These are different kind of activities.”
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources add rumors were flying around the region Saturday night and Sunday morning that President Bashar Assad had been killed or fled Syria. Neither is confirmed. However, the rebels have in recent days made major strategic gains and begun to turn the tide of war against's Assad forces.
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources add rumors were flying around the region Saturday night and Sunday morning that President Bashar Assad had been killed or fled Syria. Neither is confirmed. However, the rebels have in recent days made major strategic gains and begun to turn the tide of war against's Assad forces.
The new rumors tie in with the suggestive movements of chemical weapons detected by Western intelligence without any indication of their likely target.
Since the Syrian uprising erupted against his regime last year, Assad has often declared he would fight his enemies to the end and threatened that if his back was against the wall and life and regime were in jeopardy, he would rather set the entire Middle East on fire than surrender.
Flow of Arms to Syria Through Iraq Persists, to U.S. Dismay
December 1, 2012 6:04 pm
WASHINGTON -- The American effort to stem the flow of Iranian arms to Syria has faltered because of Iraq's reluctance to inspect aircraft carrying the weapons through its airspace, American officials say.
The shipments have persisted at a critical time for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, who has come under increasing military pressure from rebel fighters. The air corridor over Iraq has emerged as a main supply route for weapons, including rockets, antitank missiles, rocket-propelled grenade and mortars.
Iran has an enormous stake in Syria, which is its staunchest Arab ally and has also provided a channel for Iran's support to the Lebanese Islamist movement Hezbollah.
To the disappointment of the Obama administration, American efforts to persuade the Iraqis to randomly inspect the flights have been largely unsuccessful.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in September secured a commitment from Iraq's foreign minister that Iraq would inspect flights from Iran to Syria. But the Iraqis have inspected only two, most recently on Oct. 27. No weapons were found, but one of the two planes that landed in Iraq for inspection was on its way back to Iran after delivering its cargo in Syria.
Adding to the United States' frustrations, Iran appears to have been tipped off by Iraqi officials as to when inspections would be conducted, American officials say, citing classified reports by American intelligence analysts.
Iran's continued efforts to aid the Syrian government were described in interviews with a dozen American administration, military and Congressional officials, most of whom requested anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
"The abuse of Iraqi airspace by Iran continues to be a concern," an American official said. "We urge Iraq to be diligent and consistent in fulfilling its international obligations and commitments, either by continuing to require flights over Iraqi territory en route to Syria from Iran to land for inspection or by denying overflight requests for Iranian aircraft going to Syria."
Iraqi officials insist that they oppose the ferrying of arms through Iraq's airspace. They also cite claims by Iran that it is merely delivering humanitarian aid, and they call the American charges unfounded.
"We wouldn't be able to convince them, even if we searched all the airplanes, because they have prejudged the situation," Ali al-Musawi, the spokesman for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq, said of the American concerns. "Our policy is that we will not allow the transfer of arms to Syria."
Mr. Musawi acknowledged that one of the planes was not inspected until it was returning from Damascus, but said it was a simple error, not a deliberate effort to help the Iranians. "Mistakes sometimes occur," he said.
But one former Iraqi official, who asked not to be identified because he fears retaliation by the Iraqi government, said that some officials in Baghdad had been doing the bare minimum to placate the United States and were in fact sympathetic to the Iranian efforts in Syria.
The Iranian flights present challenges for the Obama administration, which has been reluctant to provide arms to the Syrian rebels or to establish a no-fly zone over Syria for fear of becoming entangled in the conflict. They also illustrate the limits of the administration's influence with the Maliki government and point to divergent foreign-policy calculations in Washington and in Baghdad.
While Iraq's actions clearly benefit Iran, a Shiite state with close ties to many Iraqi officials, Mr. Maliki may have his own reasons to tolerate the flights.
Mr. Maliki, American officials say, is worried that if Mr. Assad fell from power it might embolden Sunni and Kurdish forces in the region, including in Iraq, which could present challenges to his Shiite-dominated government.
Iran's support for Syria is vital to the Assad government, American officials said. In addition to flying arms and ammunition to Syria, Iran's paramilitary Quds Force is sending trainers and advisers, sometimes disguised as religious pilgrims, tourists and businessmen, the officials say.
Iran's flights of arms to Syria drew the concern of American officials soon after the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq last December. Iraq lacks an air force and is unable to enforce control of its own airspace, and Iran took advantage by ferrying arms to Syria.
Under American pressure, Iraqi officials persuaded the Iranians to hold off on the flights as Iraq prepared to host the Arab summit in Baghdad in March. Soon after the meeting, President Obama, in an April 3 call to Mr. Maliki, underscored that the flights should not continue.
But after a bombing in Damascus in July that killed ranking members of Mr. Assad's government, the Iranian flights resumed. Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. raised American concerns over the flights in an Aug. 17 phone call with Mr. Maliki. So did Denis McDonough, Mr. Obama's deputy national security adviser, who met with Mr. Maliki in Baghdad in October.
When Mr. McDonough raised concerns over the inspection of the plane that was on its way back to Iran, Mr. Maliki responded that he was not aware that the inspection had been carried out that way, according to one account of the meeting by an American official. A spokeswoman for the National Security Council declined to comment.
There is evidence of collusion between Iranian and Iraqi officials on the inspections, according to American intelligence assessments. In one instance, according to an American intelligence report, Qassim Suleimani, the leader of Iran's paramilitary Quds force, ordered that a flight to Syria carry only humanitarian goods. An Iraqi inspection occurred soon after, when the plane was asked to land in Iraq on Oct. 27.
Much of the American intelligence community's concerns about possible collusion has focused on Hadi al-Amiri, Iraq's minister of transportation, who is believed to be close to the Iranians and was among the Iraqi traveling party when Mr. Maliki visited Washington last year.
Nasir Bender, the head of civil aviation in Iraq, said there was no indication that Iraqi officials had tipped off Iranians. "We have orders to search any plane that we feel is suspicious, but the ones we have searched were only carrying medical supplies and clothing," he said, adding that the Iraqis had inspected only two Iranian flights because of the cost of fuel. "We can't search every plane because there are so many heading to Syria," he said. "It would be a big waste of money. Each plane we take down we must refill with fuel."
In one instance in late October, however, an Iranian flight ignored an Iraqi request that it land, according to American intelligence assessments, presumably because the Iranians did not want its cargo to be inspected.
Iraq's attitude toward the Iranian flights has drawn the concern of lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat who has been mentioned as a possible secretary of state in Mr. Obama's second term.
"If so many people have entreated the government to stop and that doesn't seem to be having an impact," Mr. Kerry said in September, "that sort of alarms me a little bit and seems to send a signal to me maybe we should make some of our assistance or some of our support contingent on some kind of appropriate response."
and in Egypt , the chaos created by the Morsi decree continues....
Egypt's top court on indefinite strike | |||
Constitutional Court judges cease work after court house is blocked by President Morsi's supporters ahead of key ruling.
Last Modified: 02 Dec 2012 13:06
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Several hundred pro-Morsi supporters protested outside court to oppose any dissolution of constituent assembly [AFP]
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| Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court has shelved its work indefinitely after protests by President Mohamed Morsi's supporters outside its headquarters prevented judges from meeting.
"[The judges] announce the suspension of the court sessions until the time when they can continue their message and rulings in cases without any psychological and material pressures," the court said in a statement on Sunday.
"The court registers its deep regret and pain at the methods of psychological assassination of its judges," it said. The top court had earlier announced it had postponed its ruling on the legitimacy of the constituent assembly, citing "administrative'' reasons. It is not known whether a new date has been set for the ruling. Any ruling from the court would be a direct challenge to Morsi - who last month gave himself near absolute powers, placing himself and the assembly above any oversight, including by the judiciary - and could further undermine the charter's legitimacy. Public referendumMeanwhile, anti-Morsi protesters continued to occupy Cairo's Tahrir Square on Sunday morning, a day after the president called for a December 15 public referendum on a draft constitution after receiving a copy of the document. Morsi is accused by his detractors of usurping sweeping powers and pushing his Muslim Brotherhood agenda in drawing up the draft constitution. Judges have threatened to boycott observing the referendum, and the secular opposition promised a civil disobedience campaign. Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh, reporting from Cairo, said that the constituent assembly was "immunised by this presidential decree".
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and....
BREAKING NEWS
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/egypts-islamists-rally-for-morsi-as-rifts-widen/story-e6frfkui-1226528173058
THOUSANDS of Islamists rallied in support of President Mohamed Morsi's new expanded powers and the drafting of a contested charter, in a clear show of Egypt's widening polarisation.
The demonstration in the heart of Cairo comes a day after tens of thousands of Morsi opponents converged on Tahrir Square to protest against the president's decree and the speedy adoption of the draft constitution.
The charter has taken centre stage in the country's worst political crisis since Mr Morsi's election in June, squaring largely Islamist forces against secular-leaning opponents.
It is expected to go to a popular referendum within two weeks.
Members of the constituent assembly were due to hand Mr Morsi at 4.00pm local time the final draft of the constitution adopted after a marathon overnight session on Thursday that was boycotted by liberals, seculars and Christians.
Members of the constituent assembly were due to hand Mr Morsi at 4.00pm local time the final draft of the constitution adopted after a marathon overnight session on Thursday that was boycotted by liberals, seculars and Christians.
Thousands of pro-Morsi demonstrators including from the Muslim Brotherhood, on whose ticket Mr Morsi ran for office, and other hardline Salafists gathered at Cairo University, with riot police on standby and roadblocks in place.
"The Muslim Brotherhood supports President Morsi's decisions," read a banner carried by Islamists who chanted: "The people want the implementation of God's law".
Veiled women ullulated among the protesters who carried Egyptian and Saudi flags and posters of Morsi, with banners reading "Together (with Morsi) to save the revolution".
"There are people who want instability," said demonstrator Khaled, referring to anti-Morsi protesters. "There needs to be a constitution for there to be stability."
Pro-Morsi protests were also staged in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria and the central Egyptian province of Assiut.
The Muslim Brotherhood and their supporters have branded the opposition as enemies of the revolution that toppled longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
Across the Nile river, hundreds of protesters camping out in Tahrir Square since Mr Morsi issued a decree expanding his powers were expected to be joined by more demonstrators throughout the day.
The National Rescue Front - a coalition of opponents led by dissident former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei, ex-Arab League chief Amr Mussa and former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi - has called on the decree's opponents to keep up the pressure.
It has called on Egyptians to "reject the illegitimate" decree and the "void" draft constitution, and stressed the public's right "to use any peaceful method to protest including a general strike and civil disobedience".
The crisis was sparked when Mr Morsi issued the decree on November 22 giving himself sweeping powers and placing his decisions beyond judicial review, provoking mass protests and a judges' strike.
His decree prevented the top legal body the Supreme Constitutional Court from potentially dissolving of the Islamist-run constituent assembly, in a ruling it was to make on Sunday on the body's legality.
"Rushing through a draft while serious concerns about key rights protections remain unaddressed will create huge problems," said Joe Stork of Human Rights Watch.
Amnesty International said the draft "raises concerns about Egypt's commitment to human rights treaties," specifically ignoring "the rights of women (and) restricting freedom of expression in the name of religion".
In an interview broadcast Thursday night, Mr Morsi stressed again his new powers would expire once the constitution was ratified, a point which Islamist supporters have repeatedly made in favour of his decree last week.
The Brotherhood and the secular-leaning opposition had stood side by side in Tahrir Square in 2011 as they fought to bring down Mubarak and his regime.
But since Mubarak's downfall in February last year, the Islamist movement has been accused of monopolising power after dominating parliament - following vows not field candidates for a majority of the seats - and backtracking on a promise not to nominate a presidential candidate.
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