Saturday, December 29, 2012

Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Report for December 29 , 2012 - news and data through December 28th , COT report , Comex data for December 28th , selected news and views.....And Harvey Organ third explosive interview segment !

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-28/cme-lowers-gold-margin-9

( real set up for gold and silver longs Wednesday if house GOP scuttles deal engineered by Biden and McConnell for temp Fiscal Cliff resolution..... recall Monday was a nice day for gold and silver and that followed the CME lowering of margin announcement of 12 /28  - but note the lowered margin kicks in after trading end 1/2/13 ! )


CME Lowers Gold Margin By 9%

Tyler Durden's picture




Adding to the confusion, for some, that is today's trading session, here comes the CME which in a post-closing announcement, proceeds to hike outright margins on a variety of petroleum and freight products, but more importantly just cut the margins on gold by 9%. Is it that time when the establishment is clearing the path for everyone to rotate out of equities (and/or bonds) into gold, just to set the trap and pull the trapdoor once everyone is once again left holding paper gold? We shall see, but following tonight's selloff, gold is now less than 5% less than stocks YTD. It may well be up to the last trading session of the year to determine who wins in 2012: rock or paper.



Source: CME  -  for details check the CME link .....
Performance Bond Requirements
DATE: Friday, December 28, 2012


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The rates will be effective after the close of business on
Wednesday, January 02, 2013.
Current rates as of:
Friday, December 28, 2012.







http://www.silverdoctors.com/harvey-organ-cftc-cant-release-findings-of-silver-probe-end-game-is-being-played-out-lbma-comex-near-default/


HARVEY ORGAN: CFTC CAN’T RELEASE FINDINGS OF SILVER PROBE- END GAME IS BEING PLAYED OUT, LBMA & COMEX NEAR DEFAULT!


Source: FT.com
The Doc sat down with Harvey Organ again for the 3rd and final interview regarding the recent massive cartel intervention in the gold and silver markets post the QE4 announcement, the fiscal cliff, the CFTC’s silver probe, and the unprecedented 20 million oz of silver still standing for December delivery.

Harvey stated that the CFTC’s silver probe has concluded, but they can’t release the findings because it would collapse the entire financial system!  Harvey also stated that China is ultimately the big gold & silver short, and stated that the nation is draining massive amounts of physical metal East.
Organ also made the shocking allegation that COMEX is settling allocated delivery & storage requests with paper metal,  and stated that he no longer has any faith whatsoever in the numbers reported in the COMEX gold and silver inventories. 
Harvey gave hope to PM investors who have endured years of cartel interventions in the gold & silver markets, stating that the end game is being played out, and that extreme physical shortages of silver could end the manipulation once and for all, possibly as soon as March!
Full MUST LISTEN 3 Part Interview Below:

The Doc began by asking Harvey what is the explanation for the absolute hammering the metals have received ever since the QE4 announcement? Harvey responded:
The reason for the hammering is the control that the bankers need to get on the circumstances.  This is not just the United States!  You’re seeing Europe, Japan, you’re seeing QE going on globally all at once, so the bankers are nervous as hell!  They have to dampen the paper market of gold, but at the same time they’re probably personally purchasing the physical metal, along with China, Russia, all the Stans, Iraq, Iran- this is taking a huge toll on London. 
As you know, London is really a 100 to 1 paper to physical ratio in gold.  The problem is that when you start removing that one physical ounce of gold to China, you start putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the bankers, as they have nothing bot hot air.  This is why you’re seeing all the stories about rehypothecation, repatriation, stealing of allocated gold- they are probably doing that! 
What’s happened is that the end game is being played out, and the bankers certainly don’t want you to win!  And I can tell you that you will know the game is over when you hear Goldman Sachs is on the buy side of gold.   At that point you have a plethora of buyers, no sellers, and the game is over.
CFTC Commissioner O’Malia asked me in March 2010 whether the COMEX could default.
I told him yes, it will default, it will default when all the gold leaves US shores and lands in China, Russia, and South Korea.  He looks at me and says ‘South Korea?’  And I told him South Korea!  And sure enough, South Korea is purchasing gold to a high degree.  You’re now seeing India, all eastern nations buying physical!  The only nation buying paper is Mexico, and they certainly found out the hard way when they bought 100 tons and found out it was unallocated and they simply got a piece of paper.  I believe they are trying to acquire physical now. 

You’re now hearing stories of Germany and Austria, and they’re trying to repatriate their gold back to their homeland.  That’s when you start realizing that the pressure is on London.  The moment London is out you now have the derivative mess.  The derivative mess will be huge.  You’ll probably see a default in London, then a default in the COMEX, and that will do it! 
I personally spoke with Bart Chilton, and he used the following words: They’re wrapping the silver probe up in September and I expect to have a revealing of what goes on probably in October.  It’s now the end of December.   Bart Chilton personally informed me that the investigation on silver manipulation would wrap up in September.   Chilton’s worried because they’ve wrapped it up, and they can’t release the findings, because it would take everything down!
They can’t release the results because it’s the government that’s behind everything!  They’re behind all the trades, and they’re making such a mess of things that they can’t release the results, because no matter what they report they’ll be found guilty of a crime!

The Doc then asked Harvey his thoughts on the extraordinary developments in the December delivery month for silver, which has seen the amount of longs standing for delivery actually increase as the month progressed:
That has never happened before!  I’ve been watching this- on an active month, usually what happens is the deliveries are the highest in the first 3-4 days in the month, then they go down a bit as there’s usually a few cash settlements.
What happened in December, on December 6th you saw the low point of 12.6 million ounces.  All of a sudden it turned around and you saw 13, 14, and now 19.5 million ounces of silver standing for delivery.   What really bothers me (and I have been unsuccessfully trying to get an answer from the CFTC) is that every single deposit, withdrawal, and adjustment in the CNT vault is done at three decimals at .000. 
The COMEX is a physical market!  It’s strictly physical!  You should see oddball numbers!  I could understand one or two bars adding up to .000, but when I start seeing everything, I start getting suspicious!  I have a strange feeling that they’re settling in paper.  The owners don’t know it, they think they’re getting the real thing.
What’s actually happened is that there has been a large increase in the number of investors wishing to get their silver out of a registered COMEX vault.  They’re asking for silver, but they’re asking that it’s not stored in a COMEX vault, specifically HSBC or JP Morgan.  That’s what I’m seeing in silver.

The other thing you should be very mindful of, the open interest on gold has declined, it’s kind of low, and it kind of tells you that many players no longer want to play the rigged game.  But it’s not so in silver!  OI has remained relatively high at 140,000 or higher constantly the past 2-3 months regardless of price! Certain people have decided to take these guys on, they know exactly what they can take out of the COMEX, and that is exactly what’s going on at the silver front.

The Doc asked Harvey to explain rumors of tightness in the silver market, when official COMEX inventories are substantially higher than early 2011 when they dipped below 100 million ounces:
I have no faith whatsoever in the total registered nor the total eligible silver that they record.
I have no faith in the numbers for the simple reason that I see too much of the .000 indicating it’s a paper entry, and it’s really not there.  Remember that this is a physical market.  I want to see physical gold and silver.  When you consistently see .000 in the bar weight, that’s paper silver being inserted into the inventory as an obligation of someone.  The pieces of paper are being parceled out, and settling on accounts (with a bar number) all over the place!  They’re using .000, because it’s easier than having an oddball weight.

It’s exactly what’s going on in London, there’s no difference!  London is fixed with obligations- that same ounce of gold is obligated to so many others!  That’s what’s going to happen with the COMEX.  That’s why MF Global was confiscated!  JP Morgan owed all it’s gold and maybe some silver as well, so they just took it in London!  That’s why no one should be trading in the COMEX anymore, just go buy physical metal, and be thankful that you got it so cheap! 
Don’t ask what the price is- the most important thing is that it’s physical!  It’s amazing what you will be able to buy with your silver and gold when this game ends.  That’s the big message that I can give you.
I talk to Bart Chilton, and the numbers that they give us seem to be phony.  If it’s a physical market, how can all the inventory movements possibly be .000?  And why when there’s settlements doesn’t the silver change from the registered down to the eligible? Nothing goes down to the dealer!  They have to settle!  Are they settling through the adjustments?  The figures they’re reporting are phony.
The other thing that’s a huge concern is the numbers that are going through the silver vaults as opposed to gold.  Gold on any given day is quite comatose.  Every day in silver there are huge deposits, withdrawals, and adjustments.   The fact that the movements are massive every single day is evidence that they are short physical metal, and they are scrambling to pay Peter, to pay Paul- down in London, down in China where they’re asking for it. 
I hypothesized years ago that China has behind the main silver short, and it now seems that Turk and a few others believe that is the case.  China originally had 300 million ounces way back in 1949, and they didn’t know what to do with it, so they stored it- Taiwan got China’s 69 tons of gold, but the silver stayed in China for many years until China started to Westernize. 

I believe China’s 300 million ounces of silver became the original inventory for the SLV, along with Buffett’s.  We are now seeing all this inventory go, and China is now manipulating the silver market down to pick up silver.  Silver demand is through the roof in China, they are massively importing tremendous amounts of silver.  This accumulation will be really damaging to JP Morgan who is massively short, who no matter what just cannot cover.
Keep an eye on the differential between the Shanghai silver price and the COMEX price.  Unless you have a physical delivery mechanism, you have 2 different markets.  So what you do is take delivery on the COMEX, and ship it by plane to Shanghai.  China could certainly bankrupt the COMEX any time it wishes.  If the Americans attempt to stop the silver exports, expect a swift and fierce reaction by China.  The worst thing is this will bankrupt the COMEX- a single 100 ton order and it’s bankrupt.
The Doc asked whether Shanghai could simply cause the COMEX to fade into irrelevance:
No, it will default, then it will automatically become irrelevant.  The Bank of England is the center of the fraud.  You have to look at the Bank of England.  The BOE stores the gold for many nations in Europe.  It’s there as a sub-custodian for the GLD.  If you deposit your gold at the BOE, they can do whatever they want with it.  It’s for deposit.  Of course they give you a lease rate, and they can lease it no matter what!
Germany is now shocked out of their minds!  They had no idea…which is fascinating, because we told them 10 years ago!  They did remove some of their gold in London 10 years ago we recently found out, but everyone else is still keeping it there, and that is why we recently saw the Queen of England.  It was a photo op to show that all the gold is there, but 70% has been leased out, and what you saw is what was left.  Too much has been leased out, creating a derivative nightmare for the BOE, which in turn will knock out the SLV and GLD, which will then knock out our friends at the COMEX, and then we have a financial nightmare.

The Doc asked Harvey about the US Mint’s 3 week suspension of Silver Eagle sales and whether it indicates a shortage of silver at the mint:
That is a real indication of shortage.  If you’ve had a look at the Canadian Maples sales totals.  They started in 1985 with 200,000 ounces, and this year they sold 20 million ounces in Canada? My goodness!  This means a lot of the Canadian silver is being exported out.  The Mint’s making money.  So the demand is there, obviously the US Mint just doesn’t have the silver to make them.  You can just see it in the demand!  The US produces about 40 million ounces of silver.  This means that in order for the US to meet demand in all forms they need to acquire silver from Mexico, etc, and then you have the jewelry demand, the medical and pharmaceutical demand, the solar demand.  Only 100 milion ounces of the total silver supply goes for investment.  900 million ounces goes towards industrial/ medical demand.  There are new uses for silver every day!
What these banks have done is they are eliminating the supply of silver.  I really think that the ultimate treason is that our gold and silver are leaving our shores and heading East.  Eventually we won’t have it- just like rare earths- we won’t have any!  That’s simply treason!

Regarding his outlook gold and silver outlook for 2013 Harvey stated:
I think you will see a resolution of things by March (metals manipulation), but we have to be very careful as we are going through the fiscal cliff.  As we’ve seen, every time the DOW plummets they hit gold and silver.  They knock out the thermometer, they don’t want to show that things are that bad.  So I would be careful.  I really don’t pay attention to the price. Just buy physical.  The politicians won’t get their act together regarding the fiscal cliff until the DOW has crashed.  I’m afraid that the economy will be so bad for all of us, it will be what we’re seeing in Spain and Greece.











http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/curacao-police-arrest-three-suspects-following-dramatic-115-million-gold-bar-heist


Curacao Police Arrest Three Suspects Following Dramatic $11.5 Million gold Bar Heist

Dec
29
"Whatever happens with precious metal prices in 2013...either up or down...is still 100 percent up to JPMorgan Chase et al."


¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER

As I noted in 'The Wrap' in yesterday's column, not much happened during Far East and London trading...and the smallish rally that began at the Comex open got smacked in short order.
The sell-off ended at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time...and gold traded quietly sideways for the rest of the Friday session.  The high and low ticks in New York were $1,663.60 and $1,652.80 spot respectively.
Gold finished at $1,656.30 spot...down $6.60 on the day.  Not surprisingly, volume was pretty quiet...around 82,000 contracts.
Silver's price path was somewhat different.  The high tick of the day came around 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time...and for the most part, it was all down hill into the 10:30 a.m. Eastern time low...and from that point, silver regained a bit of its losses going into the close.
Silver's high tick was around $30.35 spot in Far East trading...and the low tick in New York was $29.79 spot.
Silver closed at $30.03 spot...down 11 cents from Thursday.  Volume was very quiet at around 20,000 contracts.
As was the case on Thursday, both platinum and palladium went their own ways on Friday as well...
The dollar index opened at 79.66...traded sideways until the London open...and then spiked up to 79.92 just minutes before 10:30 a.m. in London...which was the London a.m. gold fix.  From there it rolled over...and fell all the way back down to 79.61 by 9:30 a.m. Eastern time before regaining a few basis points in the close.  The index finished basically unchanged on the day...up 1 whole basis point, closing at 79.67.  Nothing to see here.

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The CME's Daily Delivery Report...the last one for the December delivery month...showed that 209 gold and 47 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday.  The only short/issuer in both metals was Merrill...and by far the largest long/stopper in both was the Bank of Nova Scotia, with 168 contracts in gold...and 39 contracts in silver.
The CME also posted the First Day Notice numbers for the January delivery month...and they were interesting.  They showed that 677 gold and 299 silver contracts were posted for delivery on January 2, 2013. In gold, the only short/issuer was JPMorgan Chase in its client account and, not surprisingly, the big long/stoppers was the Bank of Nova Scotia with 647 contracts of the total.  In silver, the only two short/issuers were JPMorgan Chase in its client account [150 contracts] and the Bank of Nova Scotia with 149 contracts.  The lion's shares of these contracts [260] were stopped by JPMorgan Chase in its proprietary [in house] trading account.  The link to the complete Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's definitely worth spending some time on.
For the December delivery month, there were a total of 3,253 gold contracts delivered...along with 3,922 contracts in silver.
There were no reported changes in GLD or SLV...and no sales report from the U.S. Mint.
Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday, they reported receiving only 50,834 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 713,199 troy ounces of the stuff out the door.  The link to that activity is here.
The Commitment of Traders Report didn't provide any surprises.  In silver, the Commercial net short position finally declined by a very chunky 8,631 contracts, or 43.2 million ounces.  The Commercial net short position is now down to 233.5 million ounces of silver.
As of the Tuesday cut-off for this report, the 'Big 4' traders were short 239.3 million ounces of silver...over 100% of the Commercial net short position shown in the last line of the previous paragraph.  On a net basis, these four traders are short 48.9% of the entire Comex silver market.
Ted said that JPMorgan's short position is very close to 30,000 contracts...so of the 239.3 million ounces held short by the 'Big 4'...JPM Chase is short close to 150 million ounces of that...and I'd guess that the Bank of Nova Scotia would be short around 50 million ounces or more as well.  So it's really not the 'Big 4'...it's really the 'Big 2'.
On a net basis, the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 11.5 percentage points of the Comex short position in silver, so in total, the 'Big 8' are short over 60% of the Comex silver market.
Of the 37 traders holding short positions in this week's COT Report...two of them are short about 41% of the entire Comex silver market.  Any questions so far?
In gold, the Commercial net short position declined by 14,470 contracts, or 1.45 million ounces.  The Commercial net short position is now down to 18.77 million ounces, the lowest it's been for quite a while.
The 'Big 4' traders are short 11.77 million ounces of gold, or 33.4% of the entire Comex gold market on a net basis.  The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 14.4% of the Comex gold market on a net basis.  Adding these two numbers, the 'Big 8' are short 47.8% of the entire Comex gold market.
Could we go lower in price from here?  Sure, as the precious metals markets are still 100% within the clutches of JPMorgan Chase et al.  Ted Butler pointed out that even though JPMorgan's short position in silver has declined from 38,000 contracts down to its current level of 30,000 contracts, their short position back in July was only 14,000 contracts...so there's still room to go.  But can they or will they?
The link to the interactive historical COT Reports for silver is here...and for gold, it's here.  The pages can be a little slow to load.  Also below is Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" of all physically traded commodities on the Comex.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Well, it appears that the silver price manipulation lawsuit against JPMorgan is no more.  Yesterday afternoon I received an e-mail from reader Michael Anderson...and in it was contained another e-mail advising him of the following..."Unfortunately, last week the Court granted the defendants' motion to dismiss our case.  While this is obviously bad news, we are exploring next steps with the hope that there is some way to revive the case."
I wasn't entirely surprised.  There were two things that always bothered me about it.  The first was the fact that the lawsuit was filed at the speed of light...the day after CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton gave his famous speech...and the second was the fact that, except at the very beginning, the world's number one silver expert, Ted Butler, wasn't part of the litigation process.
Ted and I spoke on the phone about this for quite a while yesterday...and he's more of an authority on it than I am.  But what he did say was that the case, as presented to the courts, was weak...and JPMorgan's lawyers, who are the best money can buy, buried the plaintiffs.
Ted will have much more on this in his weekly commentary to his paying subscribers today...and I'll steal what I can for my Thursday column....which will be the first one of the New Year.


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selected news items....

Doug Noland: 2012...the Year in Review: The Fiscal Cliff...Down to the Wire

 “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.  And believe me, it will be enough.”  Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, July 26, 2012
Having singlehandedly altered the course of the European crisis, the Financial Times named Mr. Draghi “FT Person of the Year.”  Yet “Super Mario” was anything but acting alone. The emboldened Bernanke Fed soon followed Draghi’s bold pronouncement with its own daring commitment to open-ended quantitative easing (in a non-crisis environment!).  All throughout 2012, extraordinary monetary easings were announced by central banks around the globe.  I will this evening announce the distinguished 2012 “CBB Thing of the Year” recipient:  congratulations to Endless Free “Money.”
In my Issues 2012 piece from early-January, I posited that 2012 was a “Bubble year.”  The Bubble might burst, with an expanding European crisis as a probable catalyst.  But if it persevered one could expect the potent Bubble to broaden and excesses to intensify.  I referred to bipolar outcome possibilities – so-called left and right “tail risks.”  With Spain’s 10-yr yields reaching 7.6% and Italy’s approaching 6.6% - along with the euro sinking to almost 1.20 to the dollar - in late-July, the European crisis was indeed spiraling out of control.  Capital flight in/from Europe and the emerging markets was becoming a serious issue.  A crisis of confidence in the European banking system was in the offing.  The world economy was weakening rapidly, and the global Credit system was on the brink of a destabilizing bout of de-risking/de-leveraging.
Doug's year-end review is on the longish side, but his Friday missives are always must reads as far as I'm concerned...and this one is no different.  I found it over on the prudentbear.com Internet site last evening...and the link is here.


Jacques Delors: Britain could leave the European Union

The former European Commission president, who is credited as the architect of the modern EU and the euro, has broken ranks with other European leaders to offer Britain an exit from the Union.
"The British are solely concerned about their economic interests, nothing else. They could be offered a different form of partnership," he told Handelsblatt, a German financial newspaper.
"If the British cannot support the trend towards more integration in Europe, we can nevertheless remain friends, but on a different basis. I could imagine a form such as a European economic area or a free-trade agreement."
This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early Thursday afternoon...and it's courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.


Sweden’s War on Cash Runs Into a Wall – and a Heroic Bank

The war on cash in Sweden may be stalling. The anti-cash movement has been vigorously promoted by major Swedish commercial banks as well as the Riksbank, the Swedish central bank. In fact, for three of the four major Swedish banks combined, 530 of their 780 office no longer accept or pay out cash. In the case of the Nordea Bank, 200 of its 300 branches are now cashless, and three-quarters of Swedbank’s branches no longer handle cash. As Peter Borsos, a spokesman for Swedbank, freely admits, his bank is working “actively to reduce the [amount] of cash in society.”
The reasons for this push toward a cashless society, of course, have nothing to do with pumping up earnings from bank card fees or, more important, freeing fractional-reserve banks from the constraints of bank runs. No, according to Borsos, the reasons are the environment, cost, and security: ”We ourselves emit 700 tons of carbon dioxide by cash transport. It costs society 11 billion per year. And cash helps robberies everywhere.” Hans Jacobson, head of Nordea Bank, argues similarly: ”Our mission is to make people understand the point of cards, cards are more secure than cash.”
As you know, dear reader, the real reason lies elsewhere.  This short essay showed up on the lewrockewell.com Internet site yesterday...and I thank Danish reader "Jan" for sending it our way.  The link is here.


Outlook bleak as Hollande hails 2013 'battle for jobs'

French President François Hollande has hailed 2013 as the year of the "great battle for jobs". But figures released Thursday show a rise in the jobless rate for the nineteenth consecutive month – and the forecast is for worse to come.
France's faltering economy shed a further 30,000 jobs in November, according to new figures released Thursday, pushing the unemployment rate to its highest level in almost 15 years.
The alarming data, although expected, is another blow to the country’s Socialist government and its president, who called earlier in the day for a collective “mobilisation” to deal with the ongoing employment crisis.
Roy Stephens found this story on the france24.com Internet site on Thursday...and the link is here.


Spain's house prices to fall another 30pc as glut keeps growing

Spain's property slump will deepen for much of the next decade, and tracts of buildings along the Mediterranean coast will have to be demolished, the country's top consultants have warned.
RR de Acuña & Asociados expects home prices in Madrid, Barcelona and other major cities to fall a further 30pc in a relentless slide until 2018, but it may be even worse in sunbelt regions where 400,000 Britons either live or own homes.
"The market is broken," said Fernando Rodríguez de Acuña, the group's vice-president. "We calculate that there are almost 2 million properties waiting to be sold. We have made no progress at all over the past five years in clearing the stock," he said.
This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering was posted on The Telegraph's website late Thursday afternoon GMT...and I thank Roy Stephens for his third offering in a row.  The link is here.


Russia Quietly Announces a Major Shift on Syria

Russia has invited the head of the main Syrian opposition for talks.
The Associated Press reports that foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters today that he has officially contacted the Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces through the Russian Embassy in Egypt.
The move is the most overwhelming sign yet that Russia's support for the Assad regime has deteriorated significantly. Russia has been Syria's most important ally in the conflict to date.
Although Moscow has not officially recognized the SNC as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people — as the U.S., U.K., and France have — the invitation signals that Russia recognizes the importance and influence that the coalition holds.
This businessinsider.com story from Thursday is a must read for all students of the "New Great Game"...and it is, of course, courtesy of Roy Stephens.  The link is here.


Caught in a bind that threatens an Asian war nobody wants

THIS is how wars usually start: with a steadily escalating stand-off over something intrinsically worthless. So don't be too surprised if the US and Japan go to war with China next year over the uninhabited rocks that Japan calls the Senkakus and China calls the Diaoyu islands. And don't assume the war would be contained and short.
Of course we should all hope that common sense prevails.
It seems almost laughably unthinkable that the world's three richest countries - two of them nuclear-armed - would go to war over something so trivial. But that is to confuse what starts a war with what causes it. The Greek historian Thucydides first explained the difference almost 2500 years ago. He wrote that the catastrophic Peloponnesian War started from a spat between Athens and one of Sparta's allies over a relatively insignificant dispute. But what caused the war was something much graver: the growing wealth and power of Athens, and the fear this caused in Sparta.
The analogy with Asia today is uncomfortably close and not at all reassuring. No one in 431 B.C. really wanted a war, but when Athens threatened one of Sparta's allies over a disputed colony, the Spartans felt they had to intervene. They feared that to step back in the face of Athens' growing power would fatally compromise Sparta's position in the Greek world, and concede supremacy to Athens.
This is a must read...and especially so for students of the "New Great Game".  I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending me this op-ed piece that was posted on theage.com.au Internet site on the day after Christmas.  The link is here.


Three King World News Blogs

The first blog shows six gold charts from Nick Laird's collection...and it's headlined "6 Shocking Gold Charts Depicting Stunning Western Decline".  This next blog is with Egon von Greyerz.  It's entitled "2013 - Financial Destruction & How Gold & Silver Will Perform".  And lastly is Michael Pento...and it bears the headline "Man That First Spotted QE4 Now Says Gold to Break $10,000".


CME Lowers Gold Margins by 9 Percent

The CME, in a post-closing announcement, proceeded to hike outright margins on a variety of petroleum and freight products, but more importantly just cut the margins on gold by 9%.
Is it that time when the establishment is clearing the path for everyone to rotate out of equities (and/or bonds) into gold, just to set the trap and pull the trapdoor once everyone is once again left holding paper gold? We shall see, but following tonight's selloff, gold is now less than 5% less than stocks YTD. It may well be up to the last trading session of the year to determine who wins in 2012: rock or paper.
This very short piece showed up on the Zero Hedge website shortly after 5:00 p.m. Eastern time...and I thank Elliot Simon for spotting it.  The link is here.


Curacao police arrest three suspects following dramatic $11.5 M gold bar heist

Police in the Dutch Caribbean island of Curacao have arrested seven suspects in connection with the recent heist of 70 gold bars worth an estimated $11.5 million.
Police spokesman Reginald Huggins said Friday that one of the men is from Bonaire, three are from Venezuela and the remainder from Curacao. One of the suspects was later released while the others are still being interrogated, Huggins said.
One of the men arrested is the owner of a local jewelry store, while at least two other suspects were arrested at the jeweler's house.
The arrests occurred Thursday and come nearly a month after masked gunmen pretending to be police stole 476 pounds of gold bars from a fishing boat in Curacao.
This AP story was posted on the foxnews.com Internet site yesterday sometime...and I thank Washington state reader S.A. for our final story in today's column.  The link is here.


*  *  * 

¤ THE WRAP

There are no market anymore...only interventions. - Chris Powell, GATA
I had been thinking about today's column...the last one of the week, the month...and the year, for the last few days.  I was agonizing over what would be an appropriate 'blast from the past' to end the year...and was drawing a mental blank.
That all ended with Roy Stephens' last contribution to today's column...which arrived in my in-box very early yesterday evening.  The 'Subject' line..."Heart covers 'Stairway to Heaven'. [VIDEO]...did not make my heart go pitter patter.
It's my belief that there are some songs that are sacrosanct...never meant to be tampered with...and this Led Zeppelin piece from 1971 was definitely in my Top 5 list of "hands off" recordings.
So I was already prepared for the worst when I hit 'play' button on the wimp.com link that Roy had included.  But in just the first few bars of Nancy Wilson's guitar intro, I knew this cover song was going to be different...and it was.
What Roy had unknowingly stumbled across was a recording of a live concert held at Kennedy Center on December 2nd where, along with the three surviving members of Led Zeppelin...guitarist Buddy Guy, David Letterman, Dustin Hoffman and ballerina Nataolia Makarova...were also being honoured.  The concert was aired on national television the day after Christmas.
Heart played a version of Stairway to Heaven with Jason Bonham — the son of deceased Zeppelin drummer John Bonham — that brought Zeppelin singer Robert Plant to tears.
This is an amazing video...and although not the same as the original version...they honoured both the group and the original recording by how faithfully they stuck to the classic version that we all know and love...and I could easily listen to either one all day long.
They showed the three members of the group many times during this video...and you could see in Robert Plant's face, that his entire life was flashing in front of his eyes.  I'm sure that none of the band members ever dreamed that they would ever be honoured in this way.  It was a wonderful tribute to them...and to the era from which they came.
I know from what I've read on the Internet that the band members had no idea that Heartwas going to show up and perform this tribute...and the look on Plant's face when Jason Bonham came on stage is worth watching again and again.  It's a tour de force performance by anyone's standards...and after you've watched it, I hope you share those sentiments as well.  The link is here...and turn the volume way up!  Enjoy...and I just know you will.
It seems almost inconsequential to return to matters regarding the precious metals...however I will do so, but only briefly.  If you read my comments in the Commitment of Traders portion of the column further up, you'll know that whatever happens with precious metal prices in 2013...either up or down...is still 100 percent up to JPMorgan Chase et al. It doesn't make any difference about what the dollar is doing, or the economy, the Fed, or how many euros, yen or dollars are being printed...or the price of tea in China.  The only questions that matter are...are they done to the downside, or is their more pain to come?  If we do rally from here, will they be short sellers of last resort as they've been for decades?  I'm afraid that I don't have the answer to that, either.
I suppose a Black Swan could appear...and they could get over run.  But as Ted Butler has been saying for more than a decade now...if it does happen, it will be for the very first time.
The one thing I am watching with ever-growing interest at this point is the commitment of the world's major central banks...the U.S., Europe and Japan...to re-ignite inflationary spirits once more, in order to avoid the inevitable deflationary collapse.  2013 will the year that "Inflate...or die" becomes a global phenomenon.
Since they've made their objectives absolutely crystal clear, it's my firm belief that one of the signals they will use is a run-up in the price of the precious metals as a sign to all that inflation, if not hyperinflation, is now stalking the land.  The only thing that's unknown is the time line...but that's what I'll be watching for.  If this comes to pass, it's also my opinion that 2012 will be the last year that we see a two digit silver price as well.
But as wonderful as that sounds, it falls firmly into the category of "be careful what you wish for"...as the world will become an increasingly unpleasant place to live going forward if all this comes to pass.
Before signing off I'd like to take a moment to salute some of the readers who have made this column what it has become over the years.  Even though I write this missive every day, it's just as much your column as it is mine.  The graphs, charts, quotes, photos, cartoons, stories that so many have contributed...not only this year, but every year since I started writing this blog...have enriched all of us, me included.
Special thanks go out to Marshall Angeles, Nick Laird, Wesley Legrand, Washington state reader S.A., Dennis Miller, Kevin Cassidy, Matthew Nel, Scott Pluschau, Phil Barlett, Elliot Simon, Ted Butler and Ulrike Marx.  Of course at the top of the heap every year is Roy Stephens and, as always, special thanks goes out to him.  As one reader pointed out years ago..."Where would you be without Roy?"....indeed!
But not forgotten in all this are two ladies at Casey Research HQ in Stowe, Vermont that keep me on the straight-and-narrow all year long.  That would be Dody Day and Veronica Charette...along with Alex Daley at times.
Last, but certainly not least, is lovely Juli Placek.  Every morning for four days a week at 5:20 a.m. Eastern time, she drags herself out of a warm bed to take the copy that I've been slaving over for many hours...and sets it up in the format you have before you now.  I've lost count of the number of times that she has 'saved' me...and this column...over the years.  Juli...I salute you...and thank you.
And I wish you, dear reader, a happy and prosperous New Year...and whatever it brings, we'll get through it together.
See you here at the usual time on January 3, 2013.






















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