http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4344/what-week
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-01/chart-keeps-ben-bernanke-night
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/01/2012 16:50 -0500
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/us-mint-gold-coins-set-strongest-november-sales-14-years
First, I thought it'd be crazy. Then, by Tuesday, I thought it'd be dull. It turned out crazy. Just another week in the life of a Turd.
What did we see:
- After the price surge of Black Friday, prices were pinned below $1750 in gold through option expiration on Tuesday.
- Significant raids related to First Notice Day on both Wednesday and Friday.
- Robust support appeared where we'd like to see it, namely $1705 in gold and $33.20 in silver.
- On a personal note, I had a very successful week, after being notified that I was at once "retarded" and "dangerous". This comes just a few weeks after finding out that I am "morally bankrupt". Winner, winner, chicken dinner! That's the trifecta!
Before we look at the setup for next week, let's look back at yesterday so that we all can get on the same page regarding the mechanics of the selloff. Without doubt, the action of Wednesday and Friday was directly related to First Notice Day and contract expiration of the Dec12 gold and Dec12 silver. An overly-simplified way to explain this is:
- Bad Guy Bullion Bank builds up a very large position in the Dec12. BGBB is both long and short the Dec12 because the BGBB has taken turns, alternately buying and selling, in its attempt to pin price at a certain level for a minimally-damaging option expiration.
- Once Dec12 options expired at the close on Tuesday, BGBB needs to close all of its long and short futures positions in the Dec12.
- An entity without nefarious intent would simply liquidate both sides simultaneously and close the positions.
- Instead, the BGBB manipulates price for its own benefit by completely dumping the long side onto the market.
- This drives price sharply lower and initiates HFT-momo algo selling which drives price even lower.
- Into this HFT selling, the BGBB gradually covers the short side of its Dec12 position.
- As it was happening yesterday, I printed these five charts. Note that the downward action was entirely contained within the metals. Other "risk" assets like crude or stocks or the euro were relatively stable and unchanged. Below are mid-day, five minute charts:
The resulting effect accomplished three, critical objectives for the BGBB.- After all the selling, price is reset $20-30 lower and the chart looks unfriendly.
- Crushing price allows the BGBB to exit its entire position in a more profitable manner than if they had simply covered the thing at the market.
- All of the downside volatility frightens and coerces the longs, who might have considered delivery, into dumping, instead. This selling is also used as prey for the BGBB to cover the short side of its spread.
So, here we are. All of that nasty expiration and FND stuff is finally behind us and we're ready to roll into December. In the end, I expect this to be a very nice and positive month that will set us up for a big, exciting and explosive 2013. Getting there, though, will likely be volatile and challenging. To begin with, though the silver charts still look pretty good and silver remains above all of its moving averages, we'd be kidding ourselves if we thought the gold chart looked equally fine. It doesn't. So, first and foremost, we need to hold support early next week and begin a move back toward $34.20 and $1740.
Just a couple of "housekeeping" items before I knock off for the weekend.First, yesterday's CoT was unremarkable as it once again showed that all the specs were buying and all of their buying was absorbed by the Cartels. Just once I'd like to see a nice, fair and even mix. Here's reprint of the comment I posted into yesterday's thread:This week's CoT is just another sickening example of bullion bank control. Wait until you see the math.
GOLD
For the Tue-Tue reporting week, price rose by $19 and total OI expanded by 5,244.
Large Spec Net Long change = +12,927
Small Spec Net Long change = +3,056
Total Spec Net Long change = + +15,983
Cartel Net Short change = +15,983
Enough said.SILVER
For the reporting week, price rose by $1.05 and total OI rose by just 392.
Same shit, different shiny metal.
Large Spec Net Long change = +772
Small Spec Net Long change = + 834
Total Spec Net Long change = +1,606
Cartel Net Short change = +1,606The Cartel net short change was almost equally divided between covering longs and adding new shorts. The total Cartel gross short position is now 99,317. This is the highest level I can ever recall seeing. The last time total OI was this high on October 2010, the Cartel gross short position was 92,150.
And this is interesting...Back in October of 2010, the net short ratio of The Silver Cartel was 3.07:1, with price near $26. The Cartel was short 92,150 and long 30,023. As of last Tuesday, with price near $34, the gross Cartel short position was 99,317 but the long position was 40% higher at 42,525 for a ratio of 2.33:1. The only real difference, besdies price, between October of 2010 and today is this:
The Cartel gross short (+7000) and the Small Spec gross short (+4000) is nearly equal to the rise in Cartel gross longs (+12,000).
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-01/chart-keeps-ben-bernanke-night
The Chart That Keeps Ben Bernanke Up At Night
What changed in the last 30 days? Did the world just wake up to the idea that the only way out of this quagmire is a twisted currency war that appears to have re-ignited thanks to Abe's efforts? Something appears to have snapped in the American psyche asthe last 30 days have seen the largest physical gold sales on record. Between thesearch volume for 'bulk ammo' and this, we fear something is afoot and while Congress fiddles as our economy burns, Bernanke going 'back to work' is perhaps what the physical 'horders' are thinking... or maybe they understand, as we noted here, that just as Kyle Bass has confirmed previously, Paper Gold is just like allocated, unambiguously owned physical bullion... until it’s not.
(Source: US Mint)
(h/t Alex Gloy of Lighthouse Investment Management)
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/us-mint-gold-coins-set-strongest-november-sales-14-years
U.S. Mint Gold Coins Set for Strongest November Sales in 14 Years
Dec
1
"Ever present is the record Commercial net short position in silver...and an almost equally large short position in gold"
¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER
Gold traded quietly higher during the early portion of Far East trading on Friday...but by 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time, the price flat-lined until 1:00 p.m. GMT in London...about twenty minutes before the 8:20 a.m. Eastern time Comex open.
At the point, the selling pressure began...and by the time the absolute low of the day [$1,707.50 spot] was in about five minutes before the Comex close...about $23 had been carved off the gold price from its London high. The subsequent rally pared those losses.
Gold closed at $1,715.20 spot...down $10.60 from Thursday's close. Net volume was decent at around 146,000 contracts.
Silver got sold off during early morning trading in Hong Kong, but by 1:00 p.m. in London...8:00 a.m. in New York...the price was back to unchanged from Thursday's close.
There was a minor sell off during the next two hours of trading...and the real decline began at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. Silver's low...$33.07 spot...like gold's came at 1:25 p.m...about five minutes before the Comex trading session ended. The silver price then drifted sideways for the first part of the electronic trading session, but rallied a bit going into the close. Silver had an intraday price move of well over 3 percent on Friday...the same intraday percentage move it had on Wednesday.
Silver finished the Friday session at $33.44 spot...down 83 cents. Net volume was also pretty decent...around 57,000 contracts.
Platinum got sold off as well, but not as much...and it made a decent recovery. There was almost no sign of price interference in palladium. But as I pointed out the other day, there is no monstrous Commercial net short position in that metal. It's market neutral at this particular moment...and finished up on the day.
It was another 'nothing' day in the dollar index yesterday, as it chopped around just above the 80.00 mark, closing the Friday session at 80.24...up 3 basis points from Thursday. Of course there was no co-relation between the index and the precious metals once again.
At the point, the selling pressure began...and by the time the absolute low of the day [$1,707.50 spot] was in about five minutes before the Comex close...about $23 had been carved off the gold price from its London high. The subsequent rally pared those losses.
Gold closed at $1,715.20 spot...down $10.60 from Thursday's close. Net volume was decent at around 146,000 contracts.
There was a minor sell off during the next two hours of trading...and the real decline began at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. Silver's low...$33.07 spot...like gold's came at 1:25 p.m...about five minutes before the Comex trading session ended. The silver price then drifted sideways for the first part of the electronic trading session, but rallied a bit going into the close. Silver had an intraday price move of well over 3 percent on Friday...the same intraday percentage move it had on Wednesday.
Silver finished the Friday session at $33.44 spot...down 83 cents. Net volume was also pretty decent...around 57,000 contracts.
The gold shares rallied a bit at the open, but then gold sold a bit over 2 percent...with the low of the day coming around 3:30 p.m. From there, they recovered sharply going into the close...and the HUI only finished down 0.94%. It could have been worse.
The ino.com website is obviously having some serious issues with its HUI data...so here is the Kitco HUI chart once again.
Despite the absolute shellacking that the silver price took, the shares themselves turned in an impressive performance, as there were a lot of green arrows on my list of companies that I track...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed down only 0.74%. Amazing!
The ino.com website is obviously having some serious issues with its HUI data...so here is the Kitco HUI chart once again.
There was no CME Daily Delivery Report posted on their website until just before midnight last night Eastern time...which is about five hours later than normal. What it showed was that only 31 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. Only 102 gold contracts have been posted for delivery during the first two days of the December delivery cycle...which I find amazing.
It was a different story in silver, as 545 contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. The two big short/issuers were JPMorgan in its proprietary [in house] trading account with 343 contracts...and Jefferies with 169 contracts issued. The two biggest long/stoppers were JPMorgan in its client account with 255...and Barclays with 168 contracts stopped. In the first two delivery days for silver...1,116 silver contracts have been posted for delivery. This sounds normal.
This link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth the trip.
Despite the two sell offs in the paper market on Wednesday and Friday, the GLD ETF continued to add metal yesterday. This time an authorized participant added 58,124 troy ounces of gold. And, for a change, there were no reported changes in SLV.
They had another decent sales report to close out the month over at the U.S. Mintyesterday. They sold 5,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 25,000 silver eagles. Unless more are added to these totals on Monday, the November sales figures are as follows: 136,500 ounces of gold eagles...16,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 3,159,500 silver eagles. Because of the huge number of ounces of gold sold by the mint in November...especially during this past week...the silver/gold sales ratio dropped all the way down to just over 20:1. I have a must read Reuters story about this in the 'Critical Reads' section further down.
By the way, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the mint held back some November silver eagles sales for the December month. If they did, we'll find out about it on Monday.
It was a really busy Thursday over at the Comex-approved depositories. They reported receiving 1,552,896 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 311,368 ounces of the stuff out the door. JPMorgan Chase's depository was on the receiving end of 625,441 troy ounces of that amount. The link to that activity, which is worth a peek, is here.
It was a different story in silver, as 545 contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday. The two big short/issuers were JPMorgan in its proprietary [in house] trading account with 343 contracts...and Jefferies with 169 contracts issued. The two biggest long/stoppers were JPMorgan in its client account with 255...and Barclays with 168 contracts stopped. In the first two delivery days for silver...1,116 silver contracts have been posted for delivery. This sounds normal.
This link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth the trip.
Despite the two sell offs in the paper market on Wednesday and Friday, the GLD ETF continued to add metal yesterday. This time an authorized participant added 58,124 troy ounces of gold. And, for a change, there were no reported changes in SLV.
They had another decent sales report to close out the month over at the U.S. Mintyesterday. They sold 5,500 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 25,000 silver eagles. Unless more are added to these totals on Monday, the November sales figures are as follows: 136,500 ounces of gold eagles...16,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 3,159,500 silver eagles. Because of the huge number of ounces of gold sold by the mint in November...especially during this past week...the silver/gold sales ratio dropped all the way down to just over 20:1. I have a must read Reuters story about this in the 'Critical Reads' section further down.
By the way, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the mint held back some November silver eagles sales for the December month. If they did, we'll find out about it on Monday.
It was a really busy Thursday over at the Comex-approved depositories. They reported receiving 1,552,896 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 311,368 ounces of the stuff out the door. JPMorgan Chase's depository was on the receiving end of 625,441 troy ounces of that amount. The link to that activity, which is worth a peek, is here.
As expected, the Commitment of Traders Report for positions held at the close of Comex trading on Tuesday did not make for happy reading.
In silver, the Commercial net short position only increased by a rather small 1,606 contracts, or 8.0 million ounces. I was expecting much worse.
The total Commercial net short position now sits at 56,792 contracts, or 284.0 million ounces. The 'big 4' hold 278.1 million ounces of silver short...almost the entire Commercial net short position on their own. On a 'net' basis, the 'big 4' are short over 45% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and I'd bet serious money that virtually that entire amount [95% plus] is held by JPMorgan Chase and Scotiabank.
The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 51.2 million ounces of silver...and on a 'net' basis are short an additional 8.3 percentage points. Adding them up, the 'Big 8' are short over 53% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.
But it's only the 'Big 2' that matter...as the other six traders hold only about 2 percentage points of the total Commercial net short position each...and are immaterial in the grand scheme of things.
There are 41 Commercial traders registered on the short side of the Comex silver market...and two of them are short 45% plus of that market. A lot of the other 39 traders...Ted Butler's raptors...all work together in collusion as well. You couldn't make this stuff up!
These are precisely the same numbers that CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and Commissioner Bart Chilton are looking at as well...and have been 'investigating' for more than four years. When I talk about 'obscene and grotesque' short positions in the silver market, this is of what I speak.
Reader E.W.F...who sends me the weekly COT charts...made the comment that the 'Big 4' in silver are holding their largest short position since January 2010. No doubt that short position has declined since the Tuesday cut-off...but we won't know by how much until next Friday...December 7th...the "day which will live in infamy".
In silver, the Commercial net short position only increased by a rather small 1,606 contracts, or 8.0 million ounces. I was expecting much worse.
The total Commercial net short position now sits at 56,792 contracts, or 284.0 million ounces. The 'big 4' hold 278.1 million ounces of silver short...almost the entire Commercial net short position on their own. On a 'net' basis, the 'big 4' are short over 45% of the entire Comex futures market in silver...and I'd bet serious money that virtually that entire amount [95% plus] is held by JPMorgan Chase and Scotiabank.
The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 51.2 million ounces of silver...and on a 'net' basis are short an additional 8.3 percentage points. Adding them up, the 'Big 8' are short over 53% of the entire Comex futures market in silver.
But it's only the 'Big 2' that matter...as the other six traders hold only about 2 percentage points of the total Commercial net short position each...and are immaterial in the grand scheme of things.
There are 41 Commercial traders registered on the short side of the Comex silver market...and two of them are short 45% plus of that market. A lot of the other 39 traders...Ted Butler's raptors...all work together in collusion as well. You couldn't make this stuff up!
These are precisely the same numbers that CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler and Commissioner Bart Chilton are looking at as well...and have been 'investigating' for more than four years. When I talk about 'obscene and grotesque' short positions in the silver market, this is of what I speak.
Reader E.W.F...who sends me the weekly COT charts...made the comment that the 'Big 4' in silver are holding their largest short position since January 2010. No doubt that short position has declined since the Tuesday cut-off...but we won't know by how much until next Friday...December 7th...the "day which will live in infamy".
In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by a chunky 15,983 contracts, or 1.6 million ounces of silver. The total Commercial net short position now sits at 25.20 million ounces.
The 'big 4' traders are short 15.63 million ounces of that amount...and on a 'net' basis are short 34.8% of the entire Comex futures market in gold. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.94 million ounces, or 13.2% of the entire Comex futures in gold. Add them up...and the 'Big 8' are short 48% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and that's aminimum number.
There are 48 traders registered as short holders in the Commercial category in gold...and 4 of them are short 34.8% of the Comex futures market in gold. As you can see, the short positions in gold are not as concentrated as they are in silver...but it matters not when most of the 'Big 8'...and a lot of the smaller 'raptor's are all working together.
The CME Group does nothing...the CFTC does nothing...and the precious metals companies that we all own shares in, do nothing as well. It's obvious to me that in order to work for, or at, any of these organizations...you have to agree to wrap your testicles in a piece of paper on which is written the full and complete meaning of the words "Fiduciary Responsibility"...and keep them out of sight while you are so employed.
Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart. This week's Commercial short position data is a high water mark for silver that goes all the way back to January of 2010...a fact that the CFTC should be ashamed of.
The 'big 4' traders are short 15.63 million ounces of that amount...and on a 'net' basis are short 34.8% of the entire Comex futures market in gold. The '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.94 million ounces, or 13.2% of the entire Comex futures in gold. Add them up...and the 'Big 8' are short 48% of the entire Comex futures market in gold...and that's aminimum number.
There are 48 traders registered as short holders in the Commercial category in gold...and 4 of them are short 34.8% of the Comex futures market in gold. As you can see, the short positions in gold are not as concentrated as they are in silver...but it matters not when most of the 'Big 8'...and a lot of the smaller 'raptor's are all working together.
The CME Group does nothing...the CFTC does nothing...and the precious metals companies that we all own shares in, do nothing as well. It's obvious to me that in order to work for, or at, any of these organizations...you have to agree to wrap your testicles in a piece of paper on which is written the full and complete meaning of the words "Fiduciary Responsibility"...and keep them out of sight while you are so employed.
Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart. This week's Commercial short position data is a high water mark for silver that goes all the way back to January of 2010...a fact that the CFTC should be ashamed of.
Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent my way yesterday...and it's pretty self explanatory. The banks do quite well in all this. Up to a point, they don't care about the principal...as it was created out of thin air anyway...what they're really concerned about is regaining the revenue stream from the interest they charge on the money they create out of thin air.
and selected news items.....
House Republicans Seek Delay of Volcker Rule
Two top Republican Congressmen have asked regulators to further delay the so-called Volcker rule that would ban U.S. banks from proprietary trading.
Representatives Spencer Bachus of Alabama and Jeb Hensarling of Texas sent a letter to regulators Thursday requesting a delay of the rule’s effective date for two years after the final version is issued. They cited concerns about disagreements among regulators and a lack of transparency in the rule writing. Bachus is the House Financial Services Committee chairman; Hensarling will succeed him in the next Congress.
“Given the time that it will take for you to agree on one version of the Volcker Rule as well as the tremendous uncertainty that market participants face in trying to anticipate what the final rule will look like, we respectfully suggest that the Federal Reserve Board delay the Volcker Rule’s effective date,” the lawmakers wrote.
This story showed up on the moneynews.com Internet site late on Thursday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for his first of many stories in today's column. The link is here.
Representatives Spencer Bachus of Alabama and Jeb Hensarling of Texas sent a letter to regulators Thursday requesting a delay of the rule’s effective date for two years after the final version is issued. They cited concerns about disagreements among regulators and a lack of transparency in the rule writing. Bachus is the House Financial Services Committee chairman; Hensarling will succeed him in the next Congress.
“Given the time that it will take for you to agree on one version of the Volcker Rule as well as the tremendous uncertainty that market participants face in trying to anticipate what the final rule will look like, we respectfully suggest that the Federal Reserve Board delay the Volcker Rule’s effective date,” the lawmakers wrote.
This story showed up on the moneynews.com Internet site late on Thursday afternoon...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for his first of many stories in today's column. The link is here.
New Norm High Food Costs Boost Supply Risk as World Hunger Grows
High and volatile global food prices have become the “new norm,” creating increased risk for supplies at a time when 12 percent of the population remains chronically undernourished, the World Bank said.
Even after the World Bank’s food-price index slipped from a record in July, the measure was still 7 percent higher in October than a year earlier, the Washington-based lender said today in a report. While costs have dropped in recent months, fats and oils still are 12 percent more expensive than a year earlier, and grains are “very close” to the all-time high reached in 2008, the bank said.
“A new norm of high prices seems to be consolidating,” Otaviano Canuto, the World Bank Group’s vice president for poverty reduction and economic management, said in an e-mailed statement. “Although we haven’t seen a food crisis as the one of 2008, food security should remain a priority.”
This Bloomberg piece was posted on their website late on Thursday afternoon...and my thanks go out to Elliot Simon once again. The link is here.
Even after the World Bank’s food-price index slipped from a record in July, the measure was still 7 percent higher in October than a year earlier, the Washington-based lender said today in a report. While costs have dropped in recent months, fats and oils still are 12 percent more expensive than a year earlier, and grains are “very close” to the all-time high reached in 2008, the bank said.
“A new norm of high prices seems to be consolidating,” Otaviano Canuto, the World Bank Group’s vice president for poverty reduction and economic management, said in an e-mailed statement. “Although we haven’t seen a food crisis as the one of 2008, food security should remain a priority.”
This Bloomberg piece was posted on their website late on Thursday afternoon...and my thanks go out to Elliot Simon once again. The link is here.
Doug Noland: Ready for Year-End Fiscal Cliff Drama?
It’s imperative to constantly test one’s thesis – in my case, an unconventional view of the world of finance, the markets and the global economy. Does one’s analytical framework help explain system behavior? Of course, various perspectives come replete with biases, blurry vision and potentially perilous blind spots. Often it is too easy to simply see what one wants to see. At the same time, a sound framework and proper perspective create the opportunity for more objective analysis. I’ll add that history has shown that this all becomes keenly relevant during manias.
The U.S. stock market has more than doubled from 2009 lows. Financial conditions seemingly couldn’t be looser. November saw a record $165bn of U.S. corporate debt issuance. This year will see near record corporate debt sales. Junk bond issuance will be a new all-time high. System Credit growth will be the strongest since 2008. Recently, consumer confidence has jumped to a four-year high. The nation’s housing markets are showing signs of life. GDP would be generally OK, except for the matter of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary excess necessary to generate such limited economic expansion.
“The Federal Reserve has been explicit about why it has been holding short-term interest rates near zero and has purchased $2.5 trillion in Treasury and government-backed mortgage bonds to push long-term rates to once-unimaginable lows: Not only does it hope cheap money will make borrowing and spending more attractive to businesses and consumers. It also wants to chase investors out of super-safe U.S. Treasuries and mortgages and into stocks, corporate bonds and other assets riskier than Treasuries. Boosting those prices, the central bank figures, will make households richer, increase the value of collateral that banks hold against loans and encourage executives—always happier when stock prices are rising—to invest. Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies at the Fed think all this is working as they had hoped, though they caution regularly that it isn’t enough to resuscitate the U.S. economy nor is it without risks.”
The U.S. stock market has more than doubled from 2009 lows. Financial conditions seemingly couldn’t be looser. November saw a record $165bn of U.S. corporate debt issuance. This year will see near record corporate debt sales. Junk bond issuance will be a new all-time high. System Credit growth will be the strongest since 2008. Recently, consumer confidence has jumped to a four-year high. The nation’s housing markets are showing signs of life. GDP would be generally OK, except for the matter of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary excess necessary to generate such limited economic expansion.
“The Federal Reserve has been explicit about why it has been holding short-term interest rates near zero and has purchased $2.5 trillion in Treasury and government-backed mortgage bonds to push long-term rates to once-unimaginable lows: Not only does it hope cheap money will make borrowing and spending more attractive to businesses and consumers. It also wants to chase investors out of super-safe U.S. Treasuries and mortgages and into stocks, corporate bonds and other assets riskier than Treasuries. Boosting those prices, the central bank figures, will make households richer, increase the value of collateral that banks hold against loans and encourage executives—always happier when stock prices are rising—to invest. Chairman Ben Bernanke and his allies at the Fed think all this is working as they had hoped, though they caution regularly that it isn’t enough to resuscitate the U.S. economy nor is it without risks.”
History will not be kind.
Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, posted over at the prudentbear.comInternet site nearly every Friday, is always a must read for me. I thank reader U.D. for bringing it to my attention yesterday evening...and the link is here.
Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, posted over at the prudentbear.comInternet site nearly every Friday, is always a must read for me. I thank reader U.D. for bringing it to my attention yesterday evening...and the link is here.
Squabbling in the Bundestag: German Parliament Rubber Stamps Aid for Greece
Despite serious doubts over Chancellor Angela Merkel's handling of the euro crisis among the center-left, German parliamentarians on Friday voted to approve a new round of aid measures for Greece. Most Germans, however, would prefer to see the country go bankrupt.
This news item showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it should come as no surprise that it's courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link ishere.
By a vote of 473 to 100, German lawmakers approved the package of measures hammered out by euro-zone finance ministers in late-night negotiations earlier in the week. While 23 lawmakers belonging to Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition rebelled, the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens voted in favor of the package as expected. The vote also clears the way for the next tranche of emergency aid, worth €44 billion ($57 billion), to be paid out to Athens.
The aid package includes a cut in interest rates Athens must pay on loans already received as well as an extension on the periods of those loans. It also includes a debt buyback program, which will see Greece repurchase sovereign bonds for a fraction of their face value.This news item showed up on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it should come as no surprise that it's courtesy of Roy Stephens. The link ishere.
Special Report: Greeks rage against pension calamity
In the heat of a June night, Eleni Spanopoulou found her audience at an Athens hotel turning ugly. Mutiny and violence hung in the air.
For hours the leader of the Greek journalists' social security fund had been chairing a meeting about disastrous losses on retirement savings caused by the country's economic collapse. "She tried to present herself as the fund's savior and asked (members) to double contributions to 6 percent of salaries," said one of those present that night at the Titania hotel. Spanopoulou, 58, did not succeed.
When she rose to leave around midnight, enraged fund members first swore, then waded in punching, kicking and tearing at her clothes, according to witnesses. A bodyguard managed to bustle her out of the room, but another group caught her just outside the hotel and gave her a second beating. She spent the night in hospital.
This Reuters story, filed from Athens early yesterday morning Eastern time, is amust read in my opinion. Sooner or later every socialist society will run up against the same problems...and it will only be a matter of timing and degree. I thank Marshall Angeles for sending it...and the link is here.
For hours the leader of the Greek journalists' social security fund had been chairing a meeting about disastrous losses on retirement savings caused by the country's economic collapse. "She tried to present herself as the fund's savior and asked (members) to double contributions to 6 percent of salaries," said one of those present that night at the Titania hotel. Spanopoulou, 58, did not succeed.
When she rose to leave around midnight, enraged fund members first swore, then waded in punching, kicking and tearing at her clothes, according to witnesses. A bodyguard managed to bustle her out of the room, but another group caught her just outside the hotel and gave her a second beating. She spent the night in hospital.
This Reuters story, filed from Athens early yesterday morning Eastern time, is amust read in my opinion. Sooner or later every socialist society will run up against the same problems...and it will only be a matter of timing and degree. I thank Marshall Angeles for sending it...and the link is here.
The end of Japan as we know it
Since the late '90s, Japan's government has run a series of deficits while the central bank has kept interest rates at below zero through the liberal use of quantitative easing measures.
In fits and starts, the strategy has allowed Japan to remain afloat; however as the most recent trade deficit numbers make clear last week (a horrifying collapse in exports) and the travails of electronics giants Sony and Panasonic (both downgraded to junk credit rating last week by the Fitch agency), the path is nowhere near smooth; and indeed results appear to run counter to the best intentions of both Koo and by extension, Krugman.
At many levels, I have a deep admiration for the Japanese people; their work ethic, aesthetic values and personal discipline all set them apart from the globalized mainstream. Equally, a lot of people have called the death of Japan already; somehow the old lady didn't notice those obituaries and has continued to plod on despite all the deprivations that two decades of economic recession bring. A cat with the proverbial nine lives, in some ways.
Economics though is an unforgiving taskmaster, and eventually extracts change from the most obdurate societies. There are in particular a few specific factors that argue that the cat's nine lives are indeed up this time around.
This must read essay was posted over at the Asia Times website on Tuesday...and I've been saving it for today. I thank Roy Stephens once again...and the link is here.
In fits and starts, the strategy has allowed Japan to remain afloat; however as the most recent trade deficit numbers make clear last week (a horrifying collapse in exports) and the travails of electronics giants Sony and Panasonic (both downgraded to junk credit rating last week by the Fitch agency), the path is nowhere near smooth; and indeed results appear to run counter to the best intentions of both Koo and by extension, Krugman.
At many levels, I have a deep admiration for the Japanese people; their work ethic, aesthetic values and personal discipline all set them apart from the globalized mainstream. Equally, a lot of people have called the death of Japan already; somehow the old lady didn't notice those obituaries and has continued to plod on despite all the deprivations that two decades of economic recession bring. A cat with the proverbial nine lives, in some ways.
Economics though is an unforgiving taskmaster, and eventually extracts change from the most obdurate societies. There are in particular a few specific factors that argue that the cat's nine lives are indeed up this time around.
This must read essay was posted over at the Asia Times website on Tuesday...and I've been saving it for today. I thank Roy Stephens once again...and the link is here.
Post-U.S. world born in Phnom Penh
It is symptomatic of the national condition of the United States that the worst humiliation ever suffered by it as a nation, and by a US president personally, passed almost without comment last week. I refer to the November 20 announcement at a summit meeting in Phnom Penh that 15 Asian nations, comprising half the world's population, would form a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership excluding the United States.
President Barack Obama attended the summit to sell a US-based Trans-Pacific Partnership excluding China. He didn't. The American led-partnership became a party to which no-one came.
Instead, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, will form a club and leave out the United States. As 3 billion Asians become prosperous, interest fades in the prospective contribution of 300 million Americans - especially when those Americans decline to take risks on new technologies. America's great economic strength, namely its capacity to innovate, exists mainly in memory four years after the 2008 economic crisis.
This longish essay, with excellent charts, is another absolute must read from the Asia Times that was posted on their website earlier this week...and another contribution from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
President Barack Obama attended the summit to sell a US-based Trans-Pacific Partnership excluding China. He didn't. The American led-partnership became a party to which no-one came.
Instead, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, will form a club and leave out the United States. As 3 billion Asians become prosperous, interest fades in the prospective contribution of 300 million Americans - especially when those Americans decline to take risks on new technologies. America's great economic strength, namely its capacity to innovate, exists mainly in memory four years after the 2008 economic crisis.
This longish essay, with excellent charts, is another absolute must read from the Asia Times that was posted on their website earlier this week...and another contribution from Roy Stephens. The link is here.
Three King World News Blogs
There are two must read blogs with Eric Sprott. The first is headlined "Billionaire Eric Sprott - Gold to Rise 500% From Current Levels"...and the second is entitled "Shorts May Need to Deliver 40 Million Ounces of Silver". And lastly is this blog with Gerald Celente...and it bears the headline "Gold, Silver & the Top Trends for 2013".
Bron Suchecki...The Perth Mint...ETF Price Suppression Mechanics
Last week the TF Metals Report blog posted an explanation by Andrew Maguire on how bullion banks use the GLD and SLV Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to suppress the prices of gold and silver.
There are some mistakes in the article that need to be addressed lest they become more virally accepted "truths" in the precious metal blogosphere. Andrew also uses some terminology/jargon that readers may not be familiar with. I’ll cover both of these in the first section titled "Getting the facts straight".
With the facts established I’ll then seek to hopefully explain some of Andrew’s "mechanics" a bit more clearly. I think it is a combination of jargon, poor wording and the fact that Andrew talks about different transaction mechanics that results in this sort of comment from Ed Steer: "I haven't a clue as to what he's talking about" and Ed’s a smart guy who can follow an argument. This will be in the second section titled "Transaction mechanics".
Finally, I’ll discuss how significant the ETFs and the transaction mechanisms around them are to the market.
Despite Bron's yeoman efforts to 'clarify' what Andrew Maquire had to say...this is still enormously complicated and totally opaque to me. One look at the flow chart on page 3 of Bron's 13-page explanation should make any holder of shares in either GLD or SLV run screaming in stark terror...and if I were them, I would hit the bid at the open on Monday.
The flow chart looks like a Rube Goldberg machine crossed with G. Edward Griffin's "The Mandrake Mechanism". In his covering e-mail to me, Bron politely put it this way..."I think my 'ways to own gold' diagrams make the point about why ETFs are best avoided." I don't know about you, dear reader, but I think I said it better.
There are some mistakes in the article that need to be addressed lest they become more virally accepted "truths" in the precious metal blogosphere. Andrew also uses some terminology/jargon that readers may not be familiar with. I’ll cover both of these in the first section titled "Getting the facts straight".
With the facts established I’ll then seek to hopefully explain some of Andrew’s "mechanics" a bit more clearly. I think it is a combination of jargon, poor wording and the fact that Andrew talks about different transaction mechanics that results in this sort of comment from Ed Steer: "I haven't a clue as to what he's talking about" and Ed’s a smart guy who can follow an argument. This will be in the second section titled "Transaction mechanics".
Finally, I’ll discuss how significant the ETFs and the transaction mechanisms around them are to the market.
Despite Bron's yeoman efforts to 'clarify' what Andrew Maquire had to say...this is still enormously complicated and totally opaque to me. One look at the flow chart on page 3 of Bron's 13-page explanation should make any holder of shares in either GLD or SLV run screaming in stark terror...and if I were them, I would hit the bid at the open on Monday.
The flow chart looks like a Rube Goldberg machine crossed with G. Edward Griffin's "The Mandrake Mechanism". In his covering e-mail to me, Bron politely put it this way..."I think my 'ways to own gold' diagrams make the point about why ETFs are best avoided." I don't know about you, dear reader, but I think I said it better.
Bron's commentary was posted over at the perthmintbullion.com Internet site yesterday...and it's worth reading...but don't be surprised or disappointed if your eyes start to glaze over very early on. The link is here.
China's Debut of Gold Inter-Bank Trading Begins Monday
China’s gold market could get a boost from the debut of interbank trading on Monday, with analysts saying the move will enable traders to swap bullion in larger amounts and heighten the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment class.
Trades will be cleared and delivered under the auspices of the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, a subsidiary of China’s central bank, according to a Thursday statement by the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Marking a further opening in China’s gold market, the new trading system is of particular benefit for mainland institutions that trade bullion in large volumes. China currently ranks as the world largest bullion market, accounting for a quarter of global demand.
This short marketwatch.com story was filed from Hong Kong on Friday...and it's worth skimming. I thank Marshall Angeles for his second and final offering in today's column...and the link is here.
A very similar story showed up in The Wall Street Journal yesterday as well...and the link to that is here.
Trades will be cleared and delivered under the auspices of the China Foreign Exchange Trading System, a subsidiary of China’s central bank, according to a Thursday statement by the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Marking a further opening in China’s gold market, the new trading system is of particular benefit for mainland institutions that trade bullion in large volumes. China currently ranks as the world largest bullion market, accounting for a quarter of global demand.
This short marketwatch.com story was filed from Hong Kong on Friday...and it's worth skimming. I thank Marshall Angeles for his second and final offering in today's column...and the link is here.
A very similar story showed up in The Wall Street Journal yesterday as well...and the link to that is here.
Turkey Continues Trading Gold for Iranian Natural Gas
Turkey late least week acknowledged that a surge in its gold exports this year is related to payments for imports of Iranian natural gas, shedding light on Ankara's role in breaching U.S.-led sanctions against Tehran.
In response, U.S. senators said they will seek to close this loophole. But a Turkish trade minister has warned Turkey will not respect any new U.S. measures.
Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan admitted Turkey was paying for its gas imports with gold. While Washington has warned it is considering new measures to prevent such payments, Turkey's economy minister Zafer Caglayan this week dismissed the threat.
"The U.S. sanctions stand for the U.S.," Caglayan said. "We have multilateral international agreements. These deals we are a party to and are binding for us. But measures taken by the EU are also not binding since we are not a member," he said.
It's nice to see Turkey telling the U.S. government to stick it where the sun don't shine. This very interesting read includes a terrific photo...and excellent map. It's worth your time...and I thank Ulrike Marx for today's final story. The link is here.
In response, U.S. senators said they will seek to close this loophole. But a Turkish trade minister has warned Turkey will not respect any new U.S. measures.
Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan admitted Turkey was paying for its gas imports with gold. While Washington has warned it is considering new measures to prevent such payments, Turkey's economy minister Zafer Caglayan this week dismissed the threat.
"The U.S. sanctions stand for the U.S.," Caglayan said. "We have multilateral international agreements. These deals we are a party to and are binding for us. But measures taken by the EU are also not binding since we are not a member," he said.
It's nice to see Turkey telling the U.S. government to stick it where the sun don't shine. This very interesting read includes a terrific photo...and excellent map. It's worth your time...and I thank Ulrike Marx for today's final story. The link is here.
¤ THE WRAP
In saving the Union, I have destroyed the republic. Before me I have the Confederacy which I loath. But behind me I have bankers which I fear. - Abraham Lincoln comment on the National Bank Act, February 1863
I have a couple of 'blasts from the past'. The pop one is from 1974...and I'd forgotten that I even knew this song until I stumbled across it last weekend...and I'm more than happy to share it with you today. The link is here.
The Brandenburg concerti by Johann Sebastian Bach...original title: Six Concerts à plusieurs instruments...are a collection of six instrumental works presented by Bach to Christian Ludwig, margrave of Brandenburg-Schwedt, in 1721...though probably composed earlier. They are widely regarded as among the finest musical compositions of the Baroque era. Here's No. 5 [BWV1050] in its entirety. It's played a little faster than I'm used to, but it's very wonderful nonetheless. I note that Claudio Abbado is 'conducting' this...but he really looks out of place in front of such a small ensemble. The link is here.
As I said in 'The Wrap' yesterday..."since it's a Friday...and the last day of the month as well...we should prepare ourselves for any eventuality." It was "da boyz" doing their thing with no adult supervision. Ted Butler thought it might have been the work of the raptors, but there's no way of knowing that for sure...and the only hope is that more will be revealed to us in next Friday's Commitment of Traders Report.
One thing I am happy about is the performance of the mining stocks through all this. Yesterday one would have thought the stocks would have been slaughtered...but that wasn't the case at all. It was very similar to what happened on Wednesday's big engineered price decline.
I'd like to think that it's strong hands buying all the shares that are falling off the table as weak-kneed day traders hit the 'sell' button...but I'm always concerned that "da boyz" are buying up all these shares in order to dump them later when they need to suppress the share prices as well. I know that John Embry would be in total agreement with this scenario. But maybe I'm looking for a black bear in a dark room that's not there.
I have a couple of 'blasts from the past'. The pop one is from 1974...and I'd forgotten that I even knew this song until I stumbled across it last weekend...and I'm more than happy to share it with you today. The link is here.
The Brandenburg concerti by Johann Sebastian Bach...original title: Six Concerts à plusieurs instruments...are a collection of six instrumental works presented by Bach to Christian Ludwig, margrave of Brandenburg-Schwedt, in 1721...though probably composed earlier. They are widely regarded as among the finest musical compositions of the Baroque era. Here's No. 5 [BWV1050] in its entirety. It's played a little faster than I'm used to, but it's very wonderful nonetheless. I note that Claudio Abbado is 'conducting' this...but he really looks out of place in front of such a small ensemble. The link is here.
As I said in 'The Wrap' yesterday..."since it's a Friday...and the last day of the month as well...we should prepare ourselves for any eventuality." It was "da boyz" doing their thing with no adult supervision. Ted Butler thought it might have been the work of the raptors, but there's no way of knowing that for sure...and the only hope is that more will be revealed to us in next Friday's Commitment of Traders Report.
One thing I am happy about is the performance of the mining stocks through all this. Yesterday one would have thought the stocks would have been slaughtered...but that wasn't the case at all. It was very similar to what happened on Wednesday's big engineered price decline.
I'd like to think that it's strong hands buying all the shares that are falling off the table as weak-kneed day traders hit the 'sell' button...but I'm always concerned that "da boyz" are buying up all these shares in order to dump them later when they need to suppress the share prices as well. I know that John Embry would be in total agreement with this scenario. But maybe I'm looking for a black bear in a dark room that's not there.
Anyway, with November in the history books, all eyes are on what's going on in the U.S. regarding the "fiscal cliff". As I've said many times, I have no idea what will happen from here. As we've seen twice this week, JPMorgan Chase et al are still running this show with the backing of the CME Group and the CFTC...and ever present is the record Commercial net short position in silver...and an almost equally large short position in gold as well. With all these elements in play, it's a mug's game to try and make a prediction here.
We all know what the precious metal should be doing price-wise...but will they...and how soon and how high? Soon...and very high...are the answers that we would all like.
Before closing, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention the fact that Doug Casey has a new book coming out very soon...and it would be my guess that it's a must read. It bears the title "Totally Incorrect"...which pretty much sums up Doug's persona in two words. The cost of his new tome is US$14.95...46% off the retail price...and a pittance in the grand scheme of things. If you have any interest at all, you can find out more by clickinghere.
Enjoy what's left of your weekend...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.
We all know what the precious metal should be doing price-wise...but will they...and how soon and how high? Soon...and very high...are the answers that we would all like.
Before closing, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention the fact that Doug Casey has a new book coming out very soon...and it would be my guess that it's a must read. It bears the title "Totally Incorrect"...which pretty much sums up Doug's persona in two words. The cost of his new tome is US$14.95...46% off the retail price...and a pittance in the grand scheme of things. If you have any interest at all, you can find out more by clickinghere.
Enjoy what's left of your weekend...and I'll see you here on Tuesday.
and the commentary from Harvey's blogspot as well......
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
Of that total, 24,854 contracts landed in February in which it's OI rose from 272,660
up to 297,514. For completeness, the next non active month of January saw it's
OI fall by 115 contracts from 1,437 down to 1332. The estimated volume on
Friday was tiny at 121,287. The confirmed volume on Thursday was quite good at 252,064.
Nov 30.2012 The December contract month
(first day notice for the December contract)
Out of the HSBC vault, 6,558.60 oz leaves the customer and adjusted to the dealer account at the HSBC.
Let us now travel to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it:
Gold COT
This is quite a report:
Our large speculators:
Those large speculators that are long in gold read the tea leaves and decided to pour into gold to the tune of 10,998 contracts.
Those large speculators that are short in gold did not like what they saw and they decided to cover 1929 contracts from their short side.
Those commercials who are long in gold and are close to the physical scene, pitched a rather large 4148 contracts
Our commercials who have been short in gold from the beginning of time, added another monstrous 11,835 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
Our small specs that have been long in gold joined in the festivities with their older and wiser cousins the large specs in adding a rather large 7098 contracts to their long side.
Our small specs that have been short in gold added 4042 contracts to their short side.
Conclusion: The commercials went net short again this week to the tune of 15,983 which has to be construed as terribly bearish. The bankers continue to supply the non backed paper and call on the commissioners and the CME to change rules to help them with their collusion.
Interesting: same pattern but not as pronounced!!
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in silver remained resolute in adding another 3776 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in silver added a rather large 3004 contracts to their short side. Thus these guys balanced each other out as far as providing the paper silver contracts.
Our commercials;
Those commercials that have been long in silver covered a tiny 894 contracts from their long side.
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in silver added 1408 contracts to their long side
Conclusion: the bankers went net short again to the tune of 1606 contracts which is bearish but not as bearish as gold.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2012
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:
Gold closed down Friday as the bankers initiated another raid.
Gold finished the comex session at $1712.10 down $14.60 on the day.
Silver finished down $1.08 at $33.23. The bankers must be desperate as they raid
constantly. They generally let gold and silver rise on first day notice. Not this time.
The gold standing in December is pretty good at almost 700,000 oz or 21.77 tonnes
of gold. What is interesting is the tiny amount of gold notices served on first day
notice, only 71 contracts. I do not recall ever seeing such a low notice filed
on such a big delivery month as December in gold. The number of notices filed
for silver on first day notice is 571 contracts for 2.855 million oz. The total number
of silver OI standing on first day is represented by 2725 contracts or 13.625 million oz.
In other news, China's PMI imploded for the 5th month in a row. China refuses to
engage in QE like their compadres in the west.
After the market closed in NY, Moody's lowered the boom on the European
bailout funds, the ESM and the ESFS due to the deteriorating conditions
inside France. We will cover a few major stories inside France as this nation
continues on it's socialistic path.
The Greek banks refuse to participate in the "voluntary" bond buyback unless the
EU agrees to various conditions. The IMF refuses to participate in any Greek
bailout unless this voluntary bond buyback occurs first. We will also highlight
pension problems inside Greece. The Central Bank of Greece which handles the
pensions of its citizens were forced by law in 2009 to purchase Greek
We will go over all of these stories and many more but first let us head over
to the comex and assess the damage on Friday in gold and silver trading.
The gold comex total open interest fell by 2,383 contracts from 452,129 down
to 449,746 despite gold's rise on Thursday. We must have had a few more longs
throw in the towel and refuse to roll. On first day notice we had 6,999 contracts
stand for delivery or approximately 700,000 oz of gold. (21.77 tonnes). On Thursday we had 356,289 contracts standing and thus a contraction of 28,090 contracts.
Gold closed down Friday as the bankers initiated another raid.
Gold finished the comex session at $1712.10 down $14.60 on the day.
Silver finished down $1.08 at $33.23. The bankers must be desperate as they raid
constantly. They generally let gold and silver rise on first day notice. Not this time.
The gold standing in December is pretty good at almost 700,000 oz or 21.77 tonnes
of gold. What is interesting is the tiny amount of gold notices served on first day
notice, only 71 contracts. I do not recall ever seeing such a low notice filed
on such a big delivery month as December in gold. The number of notices filed
for silver on first day notice is 571 contracts for 2.855 million oz. The total number
of silver OI standing on first day is represented by 2725 contracts or 13.625 million oz.
In other news, China's PMI imploded for the 5th month in a row. China refuses to
engage in QE like their compadres in the west.
After the market closed in NY, Moody's lowered the boom on the European
bailout funds, the ESM and the ESFS due to the deteriorating conditions
inside France. We will cover a few major stories inside France as this nation
continues on it's socialistic path.
The Greek banks refuse to participate in the "voluntary" bond buyback unless the
EU agrees to various conditions. The IMF refuses to participate in any Greek
bailout unless this voluntary bond buyback occurs first. We will also highlight
pension problems inside Greece. The Central Bank of Greece which handles the
pensions of its citizens were forced by law in 2009 to purchase Greek
sovereign bonds with 77% of the pension funds on hand. These bonds are worth
little so you can imagine the anger on the streets with the Greek pensioners. We
will highlight a Bloomberg article on this issue.
little so you can imagine the anger on the streets with the Greek pensioners. We
will highlight a Bloomberg article on this issue.
On the USA side of things the big topic of course is the failure of both sides,
the Republicans and the Democrats to agree to a format to end the fiscal cliff.
the Republicans and the Democrats to agree to a format to end the fiscal cliff.
In economic news, the USA posted disappointing consumer spending numbers
as well as a PMI number which did not meet investors expectations.
as well as a PMI number which did not meet investors expectations.
to the comex and assess the damage on Friday in gold and silver trading.
The gold comex total open interest fell by 2,383 contracts from 452,129 down
to 449,746 despite gold's rise on Thursday. We must have had a few more longs
throw in the towel and refuse to roll. On first day notice we had 6,999 contracts
stand for delivery or approximately 700,000 oz of gold. (21.77 tonnes). On Thursday we had 356,289 contracts standing and thus a contraction of 28,090 contracts.
Of that total, 24,854 contracts landed in February in which it's OI rose from 272,660
up to 297,514. For completeness, the next non active month of January saw it's
OI fall by 115 contracts from 1,437 down to 1332. The estimated volume on
Friday was tiny at 121,287. The confirmed volume on Thursday was quite good at 252,064.
The total silver comex OI rose on Friday from 146,082 up to 147,626 for a gain
of 1,544 contracts. On first day notice the number of contracts standing for
silver delivery is represented by 2,725 contracts or 13.62 million oz. We had a major
drop in OI of 5,244 as on Thursday we had 7,949 contracts standing.
The next big active month is March and here the OI rose by 6,270 contracts
as it seems that most of the paper players rolled into this next major active month.
For completeness, the non active January month for silver saw a rise of 121 contracts
to 618. The estimated volume on Friday was quite good at 48,762. The confirmed
volume on Thursday was excellent at 78,307.
of 1,544 contracts. On first day notice the number of contracts standing for
silver delivery is represented by 2,725 contracts or 13.62 million oz. We had a major
drop in OI of 5,244 as on Thursday we had 7,949 contracts standing.
The next big active month is March and here the OI rose by 6,270 contracts
as it seems that most of the paper players rolled into this next major active month.
For completeness, the non active January month for silver saw a rise of 121 contracts
to 618. The estimated volume on Friday was quite good at 48,762. The confirmed
volume on Thursday was excellent at 78,307.
Comex gold figures
Nov 30.2012 The December contract month
(first day notice for the December contract)
Today, we had tiny activity inside the gold vaults which is unusual for a first day notice.
The dealer had no deposits and no withdrawals.
The customer had 1 deposits:
i) Into HSBC: 3,279.3 oz
total customer deposit: 3,279.3 oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:Adjustments: one
i) Into HSBC: 3,279.3 oz
total customer deposit: 3,279.3 oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:Adjustments: one
Out of the HSBC vault, 6,558.60 oz leaves the customer and adjusted to the dealer account at the HSBC.
Thus the dealer inventory rests tonight at 2.534 million oz (78.81) tonnes of gold.
The CME reported that we had only 71 notices filed for 7100 oz of gold on first day notice for December delivery month. The total number of notices filed so far this month is thus 71 notices or 7100 oz of gold. To obtain what will stand for December, we take the open interest standing for December (6999) and subtract out Friday's notices (71) which leaves us with 6928 contracts or 692,800 oz of gold.
Thus the total number of gold ounces standing for delivery in December is as follows:
7,100 oz (served) + 692,800 oz (to be served upon) = 699,900 oz (21.77 tonnes of gold).
As a point of interest this is perhaps the tiniest of notices filed for a first day delivery in a huge delivery month like December. It looks like the bankers are having troubles finding the necessary physical.
Thus the total number of gold ounces standing for delivery in December is as follows:
7,100 oz (served) + 692,800 oz (to be served upon) = 699,900 oz (21.77 tonnes of gold).
As a point of interest this is perhaps the tiniest of notices filed for a first day delivery in a huge delivery month like December. It looks like the bankers are having troubles finding the necessary physical.
Silver:
Nov 30.2012: The December silver contract month
first day notice for the December contract:
first day notice for the December contract:
Today, we had huge activity inside the silver vaults.
Please note the difference between the gold vaults and the silver vaults.
Please note the difference between the gold vaults and the silver vaults.
we had no dealer deposits and no dealer withdrawals:
We had 3 customer deposits of silver
i) into Brinks: 507,559.62 oz
ii) into JPM: 625,441.70 oz
iii) into Scotia: 419,894.700 oz
total customer deposit: 1,552,896.2 oz
we had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) out of Scotia: 10,305.53 oz
ii) Out of Brinks; 300,072.22 oz)
iii) Out of CNT: 991.0000 (another of those perfectly round withdrawals)
total customer withdrawal:
311,368.75 oz
i) into Brinks: 507,559.62 oz
ii) into JPM: 625,441.70 oz
iii) into Scotia: 419,894.700 oz
total customer deposit: 1,552,896.2 oz
we had 3 customer withdrawals:
i) out of Scotia: 10,305.53 oz
ii) Out of Brinks; 300,072.22 oz)
iii) Out of CNT: 991.0000 (another of those perfectly round withdrawals)
total customer withdrawal:
311,368.75 oz
we had 3 major adjustments:
i) Out of the CNT vault, a rather large 449,181.000 oz was removed from the customer account and this landed in the dealer account at CNT.
I do not understand how we have exact round number transfers at the CNT happening 100% of the time!!~!!!
ii) Out of Delaware customer account, an addition error resulted in an addition of 1049.70 oz (addition to eligible account)
iii) Out of the JPMorgan account..get a load of this:
2,032,356.40 oz leaves the customer account and lands in the dealer account
at JPMorgan.
total adjustments 2,481,537.40 oz lands in the dealer account and 1049.70
lands in the customer account.
I do not understand how we have exact round number transfers at the CNT happening 100% of the time!!~!!!
ii) Out of Delaware customer account, an addition error resulted in an addition of 1049.70 oz (addition to eligible account)
iii) Out of the JPMorgan account..get a load of this:
2,032,356.40 oz leaves the customer account and lands in the dealer account
at JPMorgan.
total adjustments 2,481,537.40 oz lands in the dealer account and 1049.70
lands in the customer account.
Registered silver remains today at : 36,711 million oz
total of all silver: 142,625 million oz.
now we await the deliveries which should subtract out of the dealer accounts.
now we await the deliveries which should subtract out of the dealer accounts.
The CME reported that we had 571 notices filed for 2,855,000 oz on first day notice for the December contract month .
To determine the number of silver ounces standing for December, I take the OI standing for November (2725) and subtract out Friday's notices (571) which leaves us with 2284 notices left to be filed or 11,020,000 ounces .
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active month of December is as follows:
2,855,000 oz (served) + 11,020,000 (oz to be served upon) = 13,625,000 oz
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active month of December is as follows:
2,855,000 oz (served) + 11,020,000 (oz to be served upon) = 13,625,000 oz
* * *
At 3:30 pm the CME released the COT report.
Let us now travel to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it:
Gold COT
Gold COT Report - Futures
| ||||||
Large Speculators
|
Commercial
|
Total
| ||||
Long
|
Short
|
Spreading
|
Long
|
Short
|
Long
|
Short
|
228,431
|
34,689
|
30,217
|
140,950
|
392,997
|
399,598
|
457,903
|
Change from Prior Reporting Period
| ||||||
10,998
|
-1,929
|
-8,704
|
-4,148
|
11,835
|
-1,854
|
1,202
|
Traders
| ||||||
210
|
52
|
75
|
53
|
48
|
296
|
154
|
Small Speculators
| ||||||
Long
|
Short
|
Open Interest
| ||||
79,775
|
21,470
|
479,373
| ||||
7,098
|
4,042
|
5,244
| ||||
non reportable positions
|
Change from the previous reporting period
| |||||
COT Gold Report - Positions as of
|
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
| |||||
This is quite a report:
Our large speculators:
Those large speculators that are long in gold read the tea leaves and decided to pour into gold to the tune of 10,998 contracts.
Those large speculators that are short in gold did not like what they saw and they decided to cover 1929 contracts from their short side.
Our commercials;
Those commercials who are long in gold and are close to the physical scene, pitched a rather large 4148 contracts
Our commercials who have been short in gold from the beginning of time, added another monstrous 11,835 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
Our small specs that have been long in gold joined in the festivities with their older and wiser cousins the large specs in adding a rather large 7098 contracts to their long side.
Our small specs that have been short in gold added 4042 contracts to their short side.
Conclusion: The commercials went net short again this week to the tune of 15,983 which has to be construed as terribly bearish. The bankers continue to supply the non backed paper and call on the commissioners and the CME to change rules to help them with their collusion.
Be very careful when you play with paper game.
The raid we had on Wednesday and Friday no doubt tried to lower the huge increase in net shorts by the bankers. Remember that the COT report is from Tuesday, November 20 through to Nov 27. These figures miss the raid on Wednesday and yesterday.
And now for our silver COT:
Silver COT Report: Futures
| |||||
Large Speculators
|
Commercial
| ||||
Long
|
Short
|
Spreading
|
Long
|
Short
| |
51,084
|
12,351
|
26,757
|
42,525
|
99,317
| |
3,776
|
3,004
|
-3,898
|
-894
|
712
| |
Traders
| |||||
83
|
32
|
42
|
33
|
41
| |
Small Speculators
|
Open Interest
|
Total
| |||
Long
|
Short
|
150,727
|
Long
|
Short
| |
30,361
|
12,302
|
120,366
|
138,425
| ||
1,408
|
574
|
392
|
-1,016
|
-182
| |
non reportable positions
|
Positions as of:
|
139
|
98
| ||
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
|
© SilverSeek.com
| ||||
Interesting: same pattern but not as pronounced!!
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in silver remained resolute in adding another 3776 contracts to their long side.
Those large specs that have been short in silver added a rather large 3004 contracts to their short side. Thus these guys balanced each other out as far as providing the paper silver contracts.
Our commercials;
Those commercials that have been long in silver covered a tiny 894 contracts from their long side.
Those commercials that have been short in silver added a very tiny 712 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in silver added 1408 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in silver added 574 contracts to their short side.
thus the commercials supplied the necessary non backed paper to our small specs and some large specs.
Conclusion: the bankers went net short again to the tune of 1606 contracts which is bearish but not as bearish as gold.
* * *
and selected news items.....
Now we see Dutch parliamentarians ask why on earth do they have their gold on foreign soil.
They are starting to read our commentaries and they are now wondering if the gold is really there.
(courtesy nisnews/the Netherlands/GATA)
Most Netherlands gold vaulted abroad 'because trading is easier'
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2012-11-30 01:38. Section: Daily Dispatches
And so is fiddling around with it.
* * *
Doubts on Dutch Gold Reserves
From Algemeen Nederlands Persbureau
(Netherlands National Press Bureau)
Rijswijk, Netherlands
Thursday, November 29, 2012
(Netherlands National Press Bureau)
Rijswijk, Netherlands
Thursday, November 29, 2012
THE HAGUE, Netherlands -- The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and Socialist Party (SP) opposition parties are questioning whether it is desirable for Dutch state gold reserves to be largely stored abroad.
More and more citizens, politicians, and economists in Europe are questioning whether the foreign gold reserves, which their country possesses on paper, are still in fact physically there. Germany decided last month to move to verification.
In the next three years the German Bundesbank is to recall about 4 percent of its gold reserves from America, at the same time looking to see if the ingots are pure. CDA and SP want to know whether the Netherlands will follow the German example and physically check the genuineness of the precious metal.
For now, the answer appears to be no. "Repatriation is not yet on the agenda at the moment," De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) spokesman Remko Vellenga said yesterday.
The Dutch government says it has 612 tonnes of gold -- with a value of around E24 billion -- and is thereby in the top 10 of countries with gold reserves. The bulk of the Dutch gold reserves is in America and, to a lesser extent, in Canada and the United Kingdom. The rest, about 10 percent, is in Amsterdam.
DNB does not wish to say exactly how much gold is at each location, but it is willing to say why it is there. "We pursue a location policy. The gold is spread out because trading is easier in this way. London, for example, is a big gold market," Vellenga said.
DNB receives an annual survey from the other central banks in which all gold data is reported. "This survey is valued annually," Vellenga said. "The internal accountant of the foreign central bank also reports to our internal accountant. For us, this is sufficient."
Eric Sprott agrees with us that central banks will never get their leased gold back.
(courtesy Kingworld news/Eric Sprott)
(courtesy Kingworld news/Eric Sprott)
Central banks that leased gold won't get it back, Sprott tells King
World News
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2012-11-30 19:38. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:30p ET Friday, November 30, 2012
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott today tells King World News that central banks that have allowed their gold to be leased through intermediary central banks and now are thinking of repatriating it will discover that it is gone and they can't get it back. Meanwhile, Sprott adds, the monetary metals markets are getting tighter. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
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