Saturday, December 22, 2012

Boehner's failure with Plan B leads to Conservative effort to oust him as Speaker of the House. With this in mond , can the House pass anything next week , even Obama's Fiscal Cliff evasion measure ?

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/12/21/House-Republican-members-circulate-plan-to-oust-Speaker


Several conservative House Republican members are contemplating a plan to unseat Speaker John Boehner from his position on January 3, Breitbart News has exclusively learned. Staffers have compiled a detailed action plan that, if executed, could make this a reality.

The Republicans, both conservatives and more establishment members alike, are emboldened after the failure of Boehner’s fiscal cliff “Plan B” on Thursday evening. Dissatisfaction with Boehner is growing in the House Republican conference, but until now there hasn’t been a clear path forward.
Those members and staffers requested anonymity from Breitbart News at this time to prevent retaliation from Boehner similar to what happened to those four members who were purged from their powerful committee assignments a few weeks ago. Their expressed concern is that if Boehner knew who they were, his adverse reaction toward them would be much more brutal than losing committee assignments, such as a primary challenge in 2014 by a leadership-sponsored candidate.
The circulated plan is a comprehensive multi-step process.
According to the plan as drafted, the first step is to re-establish the election of the Speaker of the House by secret ballot, rather than by a public roll call vote. That’s because the members who would oppose Boehner, if there ended up not being enough votes to achieve their desired result or if Boehner scared via threat or coaxed via prize some of the opposition into voting for him, would be sitting ducks for retaliation in the near future.
As one hill staffer considering this path told Breitbart News, the members involved in an unsuccessful coup d’etat would be “toast.”
To establish a secret ballot election for Speaker of the House, one Republican member will need to step forward and introduce a resolution on the House floor on the morning of January 3, 2013, before any other business takes place. Those close to this plan are convinced that a member will step forward and introduce this resolution.
On January 3, the House of Representatives will convene for the first order of business for the 113th Congress. Normally, the first order of business is for the House to elect a Speaker.
But if a member introduces that resolution for a secret ballot, the whole House will vote on that first. That vote will need to have a public roll call, meaning the American people, the press, and Boehner will know who voted which way. Even so, those who are considering this path forward to unseat Boehner know that Boehner and other establishment Republicans can’t legitimately oppose the concept of a secret ballot election for a leader of a political body.
Why’s that? In a 2009 op-ed Boehner himself wrote for U.S. News and World Report, the then House Minority Leader bashed unions for their failure to employ secret ballot elections to protect those voting. Boehner’s op-ed was an attack on the Democrats’ Employee Free Choice Act, also known as “card check” – legislation that would have hurt the sacred concept of elections so badly that, in Boehner’s own words, “it would leave them [workers voting in union elections] open to coercion and intimidation.” 
Card check legislation would have made unionization elections public – meaning everybody involved would know whether employees voted in favor of or against unionization. Boehner called such elections “undemocratic” because even “all 535 members of the United States Congress hold their offices thanks to a secret ballot.”
Boehner’s op-ed helped kill the Democratic effort for card check, as he warned that some who have “spoken passionately in favor of secret-ballot elections” have done so “only when it serves their interests.” Those hill staffers who drafted this plan note in their planning documents that a secret ballot against Boehner “is likely the ONLY WAY the Speaker can be ousted,” and find it ironic that the election for House Speaker isn’t done by secret ballot right now.
At the beginning of the Congress, the House will only have one officer: the Clerk of the House. House rule documents compiled by those staffers considering this plan show that the Clerk of the House is required to keep the legislative body’s secrets. The clerk takes an oath to “keep the secrets of the House.”
Since at that point the House would have just passed a resolution requiring who votes for whom as Speaker to be secret, the Clerk – who would keep track of such a vote – would be required by his oath of office to keep the roll call secret.
If a secret ballot election for House Speaker is established, step one of this plan against Boehner is complete.
The second step of the circulated plan would require enough GOP members to band together and vote for somebody other than Boehner as Speaker. Since Illinois Democratic Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., has resigned his position, there will be 434 voting members on January 3. For someone to win the Speaker election, they’d need to secure 217 votes – or a majority of everyone voting.
Since there are 233 Republicans heading into the next Congress, only 17 Republicans would be needed to unseat Boehner. The House would continue having multiple elections throughout the day on January 3 until it agreed upon a new Speaker.
Republicans need not worry about handing the Speakership over to Nancy Pelosi or some other Democrat in this process, either. “Don’t worry about Speaker Boehner losing GOP votes in a secret ballot,” the House rule document compiled by staffers obtained by Breitbart News read. 
It is still not possible for Pelosi to become Speaker even with 100 % of Democrats united behind her and a split GOP vote. The reason is to become Speaker it is not enough to win a plurality. One must win an absolute majority of all votes cast for an individual.
So even if all 201 Democrats vote Pelosi, Boehner gets 1 vote, and the remaining 233 Republicans each vote for a different individual, Pelosi does not win. Pelosi would need 218 to reach a majority of the 435 votes cast for an individual. Since Republicans have a 33 vote advantage in the House, the only way Pelosi wins is if 17 Boehner opponents affirmatively vote Pelosi or abstain rather than simply vote for an alternative candidate. Both these scenarios are easily avoided.
The same argument applies if fewer than 435 Members show up to vote. The magic number would be less than 218 but Pelosi still cannot get there so long as there are more Republicans in the room than Democrats and they don’t abstain or voter [sic] for her.
Those planning to oust Boehner know that there will likely be multiple elections taking place next. They expect to have a series of elections in the House throughout the day on January 3, as they’re pretty sure they won’t get a new Speaker on the first try.
If Boehner loses on that first election try, he’ll be battered. For now, this is a leaderless movement – an “Anybody but Boehner” charge. But after that first secret ballot election wouldn’t have earned him his speakership back, those planning this ouster expect viable alternatives to emerge at that point.
One of those alternatives, they think, will unite the party and take the speakership.
If these conservatives aren’t successful in removing Boehner – but get close – they expect Boehner to cave and give them several concessions. Those concessions would include “that Boehner should move for it himself to decentralize power to the members, re-establishing trust and his legitimacy as the leader of the party.”
They argue Boehner might be able to reach those concessions by allowing committee chairmen to bring resolutions and legislation to the House floor for votes, and by stopping his continual dealing with President Barack Obama outside the regular order of House business through the committee system.

and.......

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/12/21/Fiscal-Cliff-Negotiations-Tarnish-Boehner-Cantor-GOP-Leadership

After House Speaker John Boehner failed to get enough Republicans to support his “Plan B” proposal on Thursday and was forced to pull the bill, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle openly expressed that they had no idea if the country would go over the so-called fiscal cliff.

Even if "Plan B" had made it to a vote in the House and passed, it likely would not have passed the Senate, and President Barack Obama would have vetoed it anyway had it reached him.
replaced the pending defense sequester with entitlement cuts.
The House and Senate are adjourned until December 27, which leaves a very tight window for a deal to be made. On Friday, Obama indicated he was still speaking about a deal with Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He urged Members of Congress to come back to Washington after drinking "eggnog" over Christmas to agree to raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year, which Obama said the Senate has already voted for. 
"It doesn't take that much work," the president claimed with a straight face. 
But the fiscal cliff negotiations got a lot tougher when Boehner, along with his lieutenants Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy, botched his "Plan B" vote after confidently -- and prematurely -- declaring on Wednesday that he had enough votes to get his proposal through the House. 
He did not, and his Speakership, as a result of his misplayed hand, may be threatened. This will make it tougher for Boehner to bring a deal to avert the fiscal cliff to a vote on the House floor that is either worse than his "Plan B" proposal, or that will primarily be supported by Democrats. Both scenarios could greatly threaten Boehner's Speakership, especially if it occurs next week. 
Already, some conservative groups are calling for Boehner's removal. American Majority CEO Ned Ryun has said on numerous occasions he would like to see Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who headed the Republican Study Committee during the last Congress, as the next House Speaker. On Friday, Ryun said Boehner’s “Plan B” vote "embarrassed" the conservative movement. 
A spokesperson for the group told Breitbart News:
Speaker Boehner's power is at an end, and it's time to replace him with someone who is serious about fixing our debt and enabling job creators. This is a harbinger of January 3. More than 35 members stood against Boehner tonight, and we only need half that to end his reign.
If 16 Republicans do not vote for Boehner for Speaker on January 3rd and a viable challenger emerges, a conservative candidate like Jordan could potentially challenge Boehner for his Speakership.
Of course, talk about replacing Boehner would not be complete without the mention of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who has coveted Boehner's job for some time. Boehner and Cantor have had a history of infighting because of Cantor's ambitions, but a Cantor speakership may not satisfy conservatives opposed to Boehner either. 
Cantor voted for the TARP bailout, and his wife my have directly benefited from it; she was a “prominent officer of a TARP-beseeching bank."
J. Robert Smith accused Boehner and Cantor of "legislating against their party's conservative base." He also claimed they have botched negotiations with Obama and the "PR war that rages to the hearts and minds of Americans (such is just a continuation of the ham-handed Romney campaign's poor communications and outreach strategies during the presidential election)."
He blasted the pair, declaring, "conservatives shouldn't accept or settle" for a reshuffling of one set of establishment Republicans for another; they should support true conservatives who are also first-rate thinkers and strategists to "replace the leadership."
Boehner must calculate his next moves with this backlash against him in mind. Some lawmakers on both sides believe going over the fiscal cliff in the short term may actually benefit Democrats and Boehner politically. Boehner could retain his Speakership and then cut a compromise with Obama, which is what Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) suggested earlier. 
On the other hand, since Democrats will have 55 votes in the Senate when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd, they would need fewer Republicans in the Senate to cross over to vote for a compromise bill that would inevitably raise taxes. 
Further, if the country goes over the fiscal cliff temporarily, Members of Congress can claim they are negotiating to cut taxes instead of raising them, which would make it easier for some Members to vote for a bill they otherwise may not have. 
If Obama and Members of Congress want to avert the fiscal cliff, the Senate could try to win over Republicans by adding "sweeteners" to the bill raising taxes for those making over $250,00 a year and try to get that passed in the House. 
The parties could also agree on a so-called "grand compromise" that raises taxes, structurally reforms entitlements, and even potentially deals with the debt ceiling; this is also important because Congress must agree to raise the debt ceiling by February, or the country may again face a downgrade of its credit rating. 
Boehner proposed taking the debt ceiling limit off the table for one year in exchange for significant spending cuts and structural reforms to entitlement programs, while Obama initially proposed giving himself unprecedented powers to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling whenever he wanted without Congressional approval. 
An agreement on the debt ceiling has a better chance of getting enacted in a "grand bargain" after the country goes over the fiscal cliff than in a deal struck during the three-day window after Christmas and before the budget deadline.


and.....

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/12/21/Rep-mccarthy-worst-whip-in-history

In the wake of House GOP Leadership's strategic miscalculation last night, legitimate questions are being raised about the future of Speaker John Boehner's leadership. But, it is important to remember that the House GOP is led by a triumvirate. In addition to Boehner, the conference is led by Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy. Last night was yet another epic failure in McCarthy's Whip operation. 

The principal duty of a legislative Whip is to rally and count votes ahead of legislation coming to the floor. The Whip's role is to tell other leaders, "We have X votes on this and need to do Y to get enough to pass." One reason many of us were caught off-guard by the failure of Boehner's "Plan B", is that leadership doesn't ordinarily schedule votes on bills unless they already know they have the votes to pass them. A good rule of thumb in politics is that any vote scheduled is one that's already been decided behind the scenes. Obviously, the current GOP Leadership can't handle this simple task. 
According to press reports, Boehner, Cantor, McCarthy and Paul Ryan were furiously lobbying support for "Plan B" on the House floor last night. According to Breitbart News sources, they were far off the 218 needed to pass the legislation. McCarthy, apparently seeing the writing on the wall, was reportedly the first of the leaders to leave the floor. Ordinarily, the Whip would be the last to abandon the quest for votes. 
This is just the latest in a series of votes that the leadership has missed. In August, 2011, House Leadership had to rely on Democrat votes to pass their proposal to lift the debt ceiling. A news account at the time included this disturbing tidbit:
When Boehner "went to the table"—brought the bill to a vote—he "had no idea" how many votes he had, Pelosi says.
The speaker, as it turned out, did not have enough Republican votes to pass the bill—only 174—and he had made no arrangement to guarantee its success. When there were minutes left for the vote, and it became apparent that Boehner would fall far short of the 216 votes necessary for passage, Pelosi's Democrats began voting in favor of the measure. "We were not going to let it go down," she told a small group of journalists on Wednesday morning.
That the Speaker would go into a vote uncertain of how many votes he has is almost politically unimaginable. A good Whip operation should know, almost with precision, how many votes they have or need. That he didn't have this information is a testament to the weakness of the GOP Leadership team. 
In late September, 2011, the GOP Leadership again suffered an embarrassing loss on the floor on a temporary spending bill, when dozens of conservatives bolted over the level of cuts. A good Whip operation would have alerted Leadership to problems far in advance of a floor vote. Earlier this year, Leadership had to split a Transportation bill into three parts, because there weren't enough votes to pass a stand-alone bill. This list goes on, but you get the point. 
The chief problem Leadership faces goes beyond McCarthy's Whip operation. They insist on pushing bills that don't have the support of the GOP caucus. A source on Capitol Hill told Breitbart News that some offices close to Leadership were griping this morning that if they only had earmarks, they could have secured passage of "Plan B." That's an error of at least two orders of magnitude. 
If the triumvirate leading the House GOP continues to push legislation that is against conservative principles, they shouldn't be surprised that conservatives balk. McCarthy's Whip operation has become an echo chamber for Leadership, convincing them that, at some point, they will have the votes to pass legislation opposed by conservatives. It ought to help Leadership shape legislation that will attract conservative votes. 
They've tried everything else. It hasn't worked. Might as well try to appeal to conservatives.  

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