Wednesday, December 5, 2012

ADP starts off focus of the Week - Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment rate on Friday..... ADP comes in light of expectations with a notable drop in manufacturing ( 5th month in a row ) joined by hit to retailing , hospitality and leisure sectors. What gained last month ? Financial activities , construction , trade / transportation / utilities , professional / business services .... Really ? Interestingly , look at the step up in jobs ( Aug / Sept / Oct ) and wonder is November the first down step ?

ADP Print Of 118K Misses Expectations, Drops; Manufacturing Jobs Decline For Fifth Month: Zandi Blames Sandy

Tyler Durden's picture

It was only logical, not to mention rhyming, that the new overlord of the ADP private payroll cheat sheet, Moody's Mark Zandi, would blame hurricane Sandy for today's miss in ADP private jobs, which printed at 118K, below expectations of 125K, and well below last month's downward revised 157K. To wit from Zandi: "Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on the job market in November, slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls. The manufacturing, retailing, leisure and hospitality, and temporary help industries were hit particularly hard by the storm. Abstracting from the storm, the job market turned in a good performance during the month." And abstracting from reality, theoretical central planning might work. More importantly for Obama's "create 1 million manufacturing jobs in 4 years task" f(a)rce, November saw yet another 16,000 manufacturing jobs lost. Fear not though: these were almost offset by the 13,000 highly "productive" financial jobs created in the past month - perhaps all were insurance liability estimators? Finally, with Friday's NFP forecast at 87K, on a range of 15K to 145K, today's ADP report is merely yet more of the same very loud noise we have grown to love and expect from the firm which mysteriously pulled a NAR and revised its 2012 YTD jobs several weeks ago by a few hundred thousand.
Those hoping small business may be finally regaining their place at the forefront of job creation, will be disappointed: only 19K jobs were created by Small businesses:
And some other pretty charts from the ADP:
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands):
Historical Trend – Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment (in thousands):
Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size (in thousands) 
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry (in thousands)
Source: ADP