http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=214659
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-07/job-quality-vs-quantity-number-jobs-vs-average-hourly-earnings
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/07/2012 09:10 -0500
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-07/146000-jobs-added-november-beat-expectation-85000-unemployment-rate-lower-77
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/07/2012 08:33 -0500
NFP: +146k (What?)
Well that's a miss on my expectations....
The unemployment rate was reported at 7.7 and the workweek was unchanged.
Let's look at the household data.
Oh wait a second... ah, here's the truth (and it's not good.)
The working-age population went from 243,983 to 244,174 (thousands), an increase of 191,000 working-age people. But the total number of employed people fell from 144,039 (thosuands) to 143,549, a loss of 490,000 actual employed people!
The spread is even worse, of course -- closer to 3/4 of a million workers, because you must account for the population increase as well.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in retail trade, professional and business services, and health care.Revisions were huge, particularly in government employment. That the BLS (government) can't count government employees is rather amusing...... how do you spell "Bee ESS!"
The unemployment rate was reported at 7.7 and the workweek was unchanged.
Let's look at the household data.
Oh wait a second... ah, here's the truth (and it's not good.)
The working-age population went from 243,983 to 244,174 (thousands), an increase of 191,000 working-age people. But the total number of employed people fell from 144,039 (thosuands) to 143,549, a loss of 490,000 actual employed people!
The spread is even worse, of course -- closer to 3/4 of a million workers, because you must account for the population increase as well.
The downward hook is clearly visible in the trends chart -- while the annualized rate is still positive it is now degrading.
The actual number of employed people in the household survey fell, not rose.
Not-in-labor force rose by over 1 million, from 88,204,000 to 89,221,000! Eek! Yes, this number is noisy on a monthly basis. Nonetheless it is what it is.
The actual number of employed people in the household survey fell, not rose.
Not-in-labor force rose by over 1 million, from 88,204,000 to 89,221,000! Eek! Yes, this number is noisy on a monthly basis. Nonetheless it is what it is.
The labor participation rate declined to 58.8%, a two-tick downward move from 59.0. The hope for a breakout higher is now in serious doubt.
Yes, we are screwed folks -- we not only failed to cross above the zero line we're now headed southbound again. The best you can hope for is that this is a shelf -- and not the precursor to a cliff-dive in the next few months.
The robots trading futures, however, simply read headlines.
You'd be wise to "rise above" (or is that "read below".)
Yes, we are screwed folks -- we not only failed to cross above the zero line we're now headed southbound again. The best you can hope for is that this is a shelf -- and not the precursor to a cliff-dive in the next few months.
The robots trading futures, however, simply read headlines.
You'd be wise to "rise above" (or is that "read below".)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-07/job-quality-vs-quantity-number-jobs-vs-average-hourly-earnings
Job Quality Vs Quantity: Number Of Jobs vs Average Hourly Earnings
In light of the composition of today's NFP pickup, driven by retail, waste and administrative and hospitality and leisure, all low-wage jobs, even as Construction jobs posted their first decline in many months on the "housing recovery" and on Hurricane Sandy rebuilding, we refreshed the chart showing that there is a quality not just quantity component to the jobs number. Sadly, the quality, in the form of Y/Y change of average hourly earnings, continues to be non-existent.
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-07/146000-jobs-added-november-beat-expectation-85000-unemployment-rate-lower-77
146,000 Jobs Added In November, Beat Expectation Of 85,000, Unemployment Rate Lower At 7.7%
Looks like Sandy was not an issue at all in the November jobs report which beat in both the number of jobs added, at 146,000 on expectations of 85,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 7.7% from 7.9%, where it was expected to post as well. Watch this space next month for prior revisions: September and October saw 49K downward revisions combined. November will suffer the same fate.
and manufacturing jobs dropped more than expected...
Confused why the unemployment rate dropped? The same, favorite BLS adjustment - a drop in the labor force participation rate which declined by 0.2% to 63.6% once again, as the number of people out of the labor increased by over 540K to 88,883,000.
In terms of quality of jobs, the biggest gain was in retail jobs as expected in part of the Thanksgiving rush, which added +53K jobs, Professional and Business services rose by 43K, of which Administrative and Waste Services was +23K, and Hospitality and Leisure +23K: all los paying jobs. Construction jobs lost: 20K.
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