1) North Korea will launch or try to launch a rocker perhaps as soon as Monday - what happens if things go horribly wrong and the missile heads to South Korea or Japan ? What if interception efforts fail ?
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/technology/2012/12/north-korean-satellite-tumbling-out-control-how-dangerous/59931/
and...
http://rt.com/news/north-korea-launches-missile-865/
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-north-korea-launches-rocket-2012-12
North Korea launched a rocket just before 8 p.m. EST (9:51 a.m. Wednesday South Korean local time), and it later fell into the ocean 200 miles east of the Philippines, Yonhap News Agency reports.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/07/north-korea-rocket-launch_n_2257063.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN5Zo7ggHNc&feature=player_embedded
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/12/09/254218.html
Video shows traces of chemical weapons used against civilians in Syria
http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=295161&R=R3
![Satellite view of suspect sites in Syria [file]](http://www.jpost.com/HttpHandlers/ShowImage.ashx?ID=208806 "Satellite view of suspect sites in Syria [file]")
PHOTO: REUTERS / HANDOUT
“We’ll not allow the Libyan experience to be reproduced in Syria. Unfortunately our Western partners have departed from the Geneva accords and are seeking the departure of [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad,” RIA Novosti news agency quoted Lavrov as saying on Sunday.
He went on to note that Russia had not been involved in any talks on Assad’s future, dismissing speculation that Moscow was preparing for the Syrian leader’s departure.
He stressed that the priority was to end the unrest in Syria, not to discuss the fate of one man.
The Russian foreign minister added that the Kremlin was not clinging to any individual leader in Syria, saying, "Our position on Syria is well-known. Moscow does not stick to Assad or to some other figure on the Syrian political scene."
Syria has been experiencing unrest since March 2011. Many people, including large numbers of security forces, have been killed in the turmoil. The Syrian government says the chaos is being orchestrated from outside the country, and there are reports that a very large number of the militants are foreign nationals.
http://www.debka.com/article/22596/Assad%E2%80%99s-last-warning-to-rebels-before-using-chemical-weapons-West-Israel-on-high-preparedness
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_09/12/2012_473639
Greece may ask additional offers from bondholders in a debt buyback plan that forms part of its international bailout, Greek officials said on Sunday.
The invitation might be renewed on Monday to top up the offers already received, three officials close to the proceedings told Reuters. «It's possible,» a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Another government official and a banker confirmed the move was under consideration.
Athens plans to buy back bonds with a face value of about 30 billion euros at deeply discounted prices to lower its debt load. A deadline for bondholders to submit offers expired on Friday. A Greek government official said on Saturday that Athens had received offers of about that sum.
The officials' comments confirm a report earlier on Sunday by television station Mega, which said that Athens was very close to hitting the 30-billion euro mark and that it might renew the invitation for a short period to collect additional bids from Greek banks on standby to provide them.
By Friday Greece received offers for at least 15-16 billion euros from foreign investors and about 10-11 billion from Greek banks, Mega said.
Greek banks, which hold about 17 billion euros of bonds, said on Friday they would participate in the deal but did not reveal how many of their bonds they were willing to exchange. Their boards authorized management on Friday to offer up to 100 percent of lenders' bondholdings.
The buyback accounts for about half of a 40-billion euro EU/IMF debt relief package for Athens agreed in November. Its success will ensure that the IMF, which contributes about a third of Greece's bailout loans, will stay on board of the rescue.
Greece and its international lenders have shied from setting a binding target for the plan, apart from saying that Athens should spend at most 10 billion euros on it. Officials told Reuters the aim was to purchase about 30 billion euros of debt, thus reducing Greece's debt load by a net 20 billion euros.
Greek bankers had been reluctant to take part in the scheme, for fear of foregoing future profits on their Greek bonds.
However, they have to make sure it succeeds because they depend on the bailout funds that Athens stands to receive if the buyback succeeds and its bailout to continue smoothly.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-09/greek-debt-buyback-participation-still-short-target-after-deadline
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/09/2012 10:34 -0500
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/11/30/euro-zone-looking-for-greece-to-buy-back-40-billion-euros-of-debt/
http://www.france24.com/en/20121208-greek-bond-buyback-success-reports
( Note Troika expectations was that at least 40 billion euros on bonds were to be bought back by Greece , so we shall see if 30 billion euros worth is sufficient - and we shall see what the actual number is next week .. And Greece buying back bonds from Greek banks , who in turn are the only ongoing buyers of greek debt apart from opportunistic hedge funds buying distressed debt is just a circle jerk. Key will be seeing how much debt was actually tendered by hedge funds or non greek sources . )
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/technology/2012/12/north-korean-satellite-tumbling-out-control-how-dangerous/59931/
The North Korean Satellite Is Tumbling Out of Control: How Dangerous Is That?
Reuters
After so many failed attempts, North Korea finally rocketed its satellite into space early Wednesday — only to watch it go "tumbling out of control," as U.S. officials tell NBC News Wednesday night. That's not only another embarrassment for a country that's looking to launch a nuclear missile — it's a possible safety hazard to a whole lot of other countries. Well done, North Korea.
First of all, the space object could crash with another satellite like that time two space vehicles collided over Siberia in 2009. That accident had minor effects — the debris didn't cause much harm, with most of it burning up in the atmosphere. Some of the space junk did end up falling on Texas and New Mexico, though. And a school bus-sized piece came crashing down, albeit into the Atlantic Ocean. (Some people, of course, attributed this to god and or aliens.)
Second, it's not clear what this "space object" does. North Korea claims it's for weather purposes, with the official state news agency dubbing it, rather enthusiastically, a "satellite" — but the White House is not so sure. Plenty of security experts have looked down at the launch as an initial threat to national security, but the material aboard this flight isn't nearly advanced enough to come crashing down in too dangerous a manner.
As of right now, this tracker puts the object's orbit above the Pacific, near Japan.
and...
http://rt.com/news/north-korea-launches-missile-865/
North Korea launches long-range missile
Published: 12 December, 2012, 05:37
BREAKING NEWS
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-north-korea-launches-rocket-2012-12
REPORT: NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES ROCKET 1600 MILES
AP
|
It traveled an approximate distance of about 1600 - 1800 miles. More astounding though is that no one saw it coming. After a bit of misdirection this morning when they announced a delay, many wondered if the launch would happen at all, some were already calling it a failure.
The launch is the result of a year's worth of planning and assistance and we predicted earlier today that this launch would be a success.
North Korea has claimed that the purpose of the rocket is to put a satellite in orbit, but others say that it's just a test for long-range ballistic missiles.
Though no satellite ended up in orbit, North Korea certainly shocked the world, and showed that anyone within a 1500 mile radius is a viable target.
Here's what we wrote just minutes prior the launch:
The media seemed to think that Pyongyang's inglorious prior launch somehow dictated future failure, but we felt that disingenuous and BI Military & Defense predicted DPRK success this year.
Maybe it was a reaction to the lazy media response surrounding the North's decision to halt the launch, pull the rocket apart, and make adjustments as a laughable indication of the failure to come.
We didn't agree, and even before tonight's launch we saw several reasons why this effort had a better chance of success than the one's before it.
First, the proof that North Korea understood its technological limitations and sought to fill its lack of understanding was confirmed in July of this year when two DPRK agents were arrested in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.
Ukraine is the former Soviet country where 70 percent of all the Kremlin's Cold War ballistic missile production took place. Dnipropetrovsk, specifically, is the heart of that effort and was closed off to the outside world from World War II to 1991. In Dnipropetrovsk is a massive solid-fuel missile plant called Yuzmash, along with scholars and students exercising some of the sharpest aerospace engineering minds in the world.
The North Koreans were caught photographing some of these students PhD dissertations marked "Secret" that held "progressive technologies in building rocket systems, spacecraft, liquid-fuel engines, rocket fuel supply systems, and other know how," according to the Kiev Post.
If two DPRK agents were caught it seems safe to assume there were a handful of others that were not caught and returned to Pyongyang with the information they sought.
Even if there weren't, and the only two spies sent to glean needed missile tech were busted by the Ukraine Security Service, Iran is reportedly on hand for this year's launch.
Iran has enjoyed the fruits of Chinese ballistic missile research since at least the mid-90s and there's little reason to imagine Tehran would not do what it could to help the North with this launch.
Reuters reported the Iranians were on site December 2, but only as the launch date was extended and the rocket brought down has Tehran denied a presence on the ground.
Regardless, delaying a rocket launch rather than plowing forth unaware of impending problems could reveal a sophistication and understanding that was not a part of North Korea's previous long range ballistic missile launches.
And even if the delay was just the correction of an obvious problem, the care it implied suggested this launch had a better chance of success than those before it.
We'll pull more details together overnight and explain what type of success the North actually achieved with this unexpected launch.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/07/north-korea-rocket-launch_n_2257063.html
North Korea Rocket Launch Reportedly
Slowed By Snow
By FOSTER KLUG 12/07/12 08:20 AM ET EST 
This Dec. 4, 2012 satellite image taken by GeoEye and annotated and distributed by North Korea Tech and 38 North shows the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Tongchang-ri, North Korea. (AP Photo/GeoEye via North Korea Tech and 38 North)
SEOUL, South Korea -- New satellite images indicate that snow may have slowed North Korea's rocket launch preparations, but that Pyongyang could still be ready for liftoff starting Monday.
South Korean media reports this week quoted unnamed officials in Seoul as saying North Korea had mounted all three stages of the Unha rocket on the launch pad by Wednesday. But snow may have prevented Pyongyang from finishing its work by then, according to GeoEye satellite images from Tuesday that were scrutinized by analysts for the websites 38 North and North Korea Tech and shared Friday with The Associated Press.
The analysis and images provide an unusually detailed public look at North Korea's cloaked preparations for a launch that the United Nations, Washington, Seoul and others say is a cover for a test of technology for a missile that could be used to target the United States.
The launch preparations have been magnified as an issue because of their timing: Both Japan and South Korea hold elections this month, and President Barack Obama will be inaugurated for his second term in office in January.
North Korea, for its part, says it has a right to pursue a peaceful space program and will launch a satellite into orbit sometime between Monday and Dec. 22. That launch window comes as North Korea marks the Dec. 17 death of leader Kim Jong Un's father, Kim Jong Il. North Korea is also celebrating the centennial of the birth of Kim Jong Un's grandfather, national founder Kim Il Sung.
Images from Dec. 1 showed no rocket at the launch pad, but by Tuesday North Koreans were seen working under a dark canvas, according to the analysis by 38 North, the website for the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and the North Korea Tech website, which collaborated with 38 North on the report.
The analysis contradicts South Korean media reports that the rocket stages were set up by Wednesday. Since the launch pad was empty Dec. 1, and it had taken North Korea four days to erect a similar rocket before a failed launch attempt in April, it should have taken longer for North Korea to prepare the rocket, the websites said.
Snowfall on Monday also may have temporarily stopped work at the site, according to the analysis written by Nick Hansen, a retired expert in imagery technology with more than 40 years of national intelligence experience.
North Korea has a long history of developing ballistic missiles, but in four attempts since 1998 it has not successfully completed the launch of a three-stage rocket. It has also conducted two nuclear tests, intensifying worry over how its rocket technology could be used in the future, particularly if it masters attaching a nuclear warhead to a missile.
A senior South Korean government official told foreign reporters in Seoul on Friday that North Korea has been making technical preparations for a nuclear test and could theoretically conduct one in a short period of time, but that it isn't clear when or if they will test. The official spoke on condition of anonymity, citing government rules.
Friday's analysis of the satellite images said North Korea can still be ready for liftoff Monday.
Based on its preparations for the April launch, which broke apart shortly after the rocket was fired, Pyongyang has to finish stacking its rocket stages only two to three days ahead of time – meaning workers could finish by Saturday and still be ready for a launch on Monday, the analysis said.
North Korea may have chosen a 12-day launch period, which is more than twice as long as the April period, because it was worried about possible weather complications, the analysis said.
"Pyongyang's rocket scientists can't be happy about the increased technical risks of a wintertime test, but certainly appear to have taken every precaution necessary in order to launch the rocket on time," said Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official and editor of 38 North.
A rocket can be launched during snowfall, but lightning, strong wind and freezing temperatures could stall a liftoff, said Lee Chang-jin, an aerospace professor at Seoul's Konkuk University.
North Korea's launch plan is meant to show the world its capability to build missiles, U.S. Pacific forces commander Adm. Samuel Locklear said Thursday. The United States has moved extra ships with ballistic missile defense capabilities toward the region, officials said.
Two South Korean destroyers will be deployed in the Yellow Sea in the coming days to track the North Korean rocket, defense officials in Seoul said Friday. They spoke on condition of anonymity because ministry rules bar them from releasing information about defense movements over the phone.
The U.S., Japan and South Korea say they'll seek U.N. Security Council action if the launch goes ahead in defiance of existing resolutions. The council condemned April's launch and ordered seizure of assets of three North Korean state companies linked to financing, exporting and procuring weapons and missile technology.
On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visited a Tokyo military facility to inspect Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile interceptors being readied to intercept a North Korean rocket if it falls on Japanese territory.
The commander of American troops in Japan, Lt. Gen. Salvatore Angelella, said this week that his troops are closely monitoring activity in North Korea as it prepares for the launch.
2) Syria remains tinder looking for a chemical weapon spark...... note the rebels now have chemical weapons in their possession.... Rebel claim chemical weapons being used by the Syrian government....
GUIDE
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2012/12/06/does-this-syria-video-reveal-the-use-of-chemical-weapons/
A video surfaced Thursday that appears to show a Syrian military helicopter shooting canisters of white phosphorus, a controversial substance that is a considered a chemical weapon by some military analysts.
In the video, a helicopter flying at a very high altitude above the town of Maraiya in Deir al-Zour province is shown firing a shell that explodes into smaller pellets and drops toward the ground leaving behind white smoke trails.
The video was posted on YouTube via an account used by the opposition. The authenticity of the footage is impossible to verify with the restrictions placed on media personnel by the Syrian government.
The footage comes at a time when international leaders have expressed great concern about the Syrian government using chemical weapons against its own people. On Monday, President Obama said there would be “consequences” if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was even more explicit and called the use of chemical weapons a “red line.”
The use of white phosphorus against military targets falls into a gray area within the Chemical Weapons Convention. Some observers say the use of white phosphorus for illumination in a military conflict is legal but that using it in a offensive capacity against military targets is illegal.
White phosphorus can cause severe chemical burns, and the smoke vapors can cause illness or even death. There also is a risk that white phosphorus residue can poison food stocks or water sources and lead to later poisoning.
In the video posted Thursday, the helicopter is clearly operating in the middle of the day, which makes it unlikely that the shells were being used for illumination. The U.S. military was heavily criticized for the use of white phosphorus shells in an offensive capacity during an operation to recapture the Iraqi city of Fallujah from insurgents in 2004.
http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/12/09/254218.html
Video shows traces of chemical weapons used against civilians in Syria
Sunday, 09 December 2012
In a video uploaded on the web of shelling that took place in Duma, traces chemical weapons existance was shown on camera (Al Arabiya).
Global concerns over Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles grew after U.S. officials this week privately said the regime had begun mixing chemicals that could be used for the lethal nerve agent sarin.
On Saturday, Syrian told the United Nations that it would never use chemical weapons against its peoples and warned that opposition fighters are the ones who could use chemical weapons.
But videos uploaded on the web by activists proved otherwise.
The video showed the destruction caused by what they identified as chemical weapons. They said the fire was caused by a tank dropped from a Syrian warplane and was uncontainable by either water or dirt and was releasing toxic substance as it was bubbling underneath the ground.
In another video, armed opposition captured equipment used as a protection against chemical weapons or gases.
Some media reports said that the substance had been loaded into bombs for warplanes.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Saturday there was evidence the Syrian government could actually employ chemical weapons against the insurgency as an effort to try and contain the conflict which resulted in the death of 42,000 people in nearly 21 months.
On Saturday, Syrian told the United Nations that it would never use chemical weapons against its peoples and warned that opposition fighters are the ones who could use chemical weapons.
But videos uploaded on the web by activists proved otherwise.
The video showed the destruction caused by what they identified as chemical weapons. They said the fire was caused by a tank dropped from a Syrian warplane and was uncontainable by either water or dirt and was releasing toxic substance as it was bubbling underneath the ground.
In another video, armed opposition captured equipment used as a protection against chemical weapons or gases.
Some media reports said that the substance had been loaded into bombs for warplanes.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Saturday there was evidence the Syrian government could actually employ chemical weapons against the insurgency as an effort to try and contain the conflict which resulted in the death of 42,000 people in nearly 21 months.
Report: Syrian gov't divided on use of WMDs
12/09/2012 01:19
Sources in Iraq say Syrian President Bashar Assad’s inner circle is engaged in “intensive debate” between those who advocate using chemical weapons as a last resort and those who warn of the dangers of such a step, Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah reported on Thursday.
The debate comes amid growing Western fears that a desperate Assad could turn to chemical weapons as rebels close in on Damascus.
Al-Seyassah said its reporters spoke to a “prominent figure in Iraq’s Islamist Sadrist movement” in Baghdad. The movement, led by popular Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, is supportive of Assad but has previously denied reports it has sent fighters to Syria to help put down the uprising.
Assad’s security and intelligence chiefs believe the rebels’ convergence on the capital provides a unique “opportunity to exterminate them,” the source said.
The Iraqi Sadrist leader said the Syrian regime’s political military and security factions have become more desperate as rebel forces converge on Damascus, and therefore the regime won’t hesitate to use “any weapon” against the opposition, Al-Seyassah reported.
This faction, led by Gen. Ali Mamlouk, Assad’s special security adviser and former head of the General Security Directorate (GID); his deputy Gen. Abdel-Fateh Qudsiya; current GID chief Maj.-Gen. Mohammed Dib Zaitoun; military intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Rafiq Shahada; and Gen. Rustum Ghazali, the head of the Political Security Directorate, believe such a move could help quash the uprising once and for all.
The majority of Syria’s military leaders and the Defense Ministry have warned, however, that if the army itself resorts to chemical weapons against the rebels, that move may result to the armed forces’ “complete disintegration,” since while the army does not really oppose the use of such weapons, it does not want to be directly involved in using them against the Syrian opposition, the source told Al-Seyassah.
Mamlouk, Qudsiya and Zaitoun have proposed that special units of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, rather than the Syrian Army, be asked to carry out security leaders’ orders to use chemical weapons, the source said.
The report comes after US officials said last week they have intelligence that Syria may be making preparations to use chemical weapons against opposition forces. On Monday,The Washington Post reported comments by a senior American defense official that the US is concerned about “indications of preparation” for a possible use of chemical weapons.
US intelligence officials have also intercepted one communication within the last six months they believe was from the Revolutionary Guard Corps’s elite extraterritorial unit, the Qods Force, according to the Washington Post. That communication reportedly urged Syrian regime members to use its supplies of Sarin nerve gas against rebels and the civilians supporting them in Homs.
Syria has one of the world’s largest chemical weapons arsenals, according to Leonard Spector, executive director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies based in Washington. Syria’s arms cache includes “traditional chemical agents, such as mustard, and more modern nerve agents, such as sarin, and possibly persistent nerve agents, such as VX,” he told the BBC on Tuesday.
While Damascus has never confirmed that it has chemical weapons, it has insisted that it would never use them against its own people.
Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad reiterated this position on Thursday, telling Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV that “Syria would never use chemical weapons, even if it had them, against its own people.”
Mekdad said the West’s “theatrical talk” of chemical weapons was merely a ploy to justify military intervention against Syria.
According to Al-Seyassah, its Iraqi source said that Iran has discussed the use of chemical weapons with Moscow, and Tehran supports their use “widely and extensively.”
Moscow believes the Syrian regime could resort to limited use of chemical weapons as a deterrence if it were forced to act to stop Damascus from falling into the hands of the armed opposition, especially in the suburbs of Douma, Moadamiyeh, Zamalka and Kafr Batna, where intelligence shows there are more armed groups including those affiliated with the Al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra), the source said.
The Al-Nusra Front is an al-Qaida-affiliated Sunni jihadist paramilitary group, which has claimed responsibility for several suicide bombings including in Damascus and Aleppo. The US is moving to designate the group as a foreign terrorist organization because of its links to al-Qaida.
According to Al-Seyassah, its source said Assad’s inner circle could well decide to use chemical weapons only in a limited initial operation, but that use could be expanded depending on the circumstances and results.
Syria’s security and intelligence chiefs are “not indifferent,” however, to the international community’s response as it prepares its plans, first to carry out chemical weapons strikes and second to direct its air defense system to counter Western fighter jets that may intervene to strike Assad’s forces and strategic sites, including chemical weapons stores, according to Al-Seyassah.
The US warned Syria last week not to use chemical weapons, saying that would be a “red line” for Washington.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters in Prague on Monday that Washington was “certainly planning to take action if that eventuality were to occur,” but has not said what form that action might take. Washington has also not said what it might do should Syria’s chemical weapons cache fall into the hands of opposition forces.
Al-Seyassah also quoted its source as saying that the decision whether or not to use chemical weapons was “not in the hands of President Assad.”
Assad would “not sign any document proving that he is resorting to this weapon to attack the rebels, and therefore the decision will likely be taken by Mamlouk, Qudsiya and Zaitoun and the IRGC leadership,” the paper quoted the source as saying.
Tehran, which has much to lose if Assad falls, has been accused by the US last week of continuing to ship arms to the Syrian regime via Iraqi airspace. The Syrian opposition have also accused the Revolutionary Guard Corps of providing military assistance to Assad.
In May, an Iranian news report that was quickly removed quoted Qods Force deputy commander Esmail Gha’ani as admitting that the Revolutionary Guard Corps’s elite extraterritorial unit was aiding Syria. In September, Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Brig.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari said that while Qods Force agents were in Syria, Iran did not have a military presence there.
http://www.debka.com/article/22598/What-comes-first-%E2%80%93-a-Syrian-chemical-attack-or-a-US-led-military-showdown-
What comes first – a Syrian chemical attack or a US-led military showdown?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 9, 2012, 12:03 PM (GMT+02:00)
Anti-contamination gear for chemical warfare
For the past week, US officials have kept up a flow of leaks to the media suggesting that Syrian President Bashar Assad was on the verge of ordering his army to unleash chemical weapons. The details built up as the week went by, starting with the detection of “unusual movements” of Syrian chemical weapons units, advancing to reports that the Syrians were “mixing precursor chemicals” for the nerve gas sarin and on Thursday, Dec. 6, that bombs had been made ready with sarin gas for loading onto Syrian Air Force fighter-bombers when Assad gave the word.
Saturday, Dec. 8, British Foreign Secretary William Hague reported evidence from intelligence sources that Syria is preparing to use chemical weapons. British intelligence sources added that Syria's chemical weapons are concentrated at five air bases and are being closely watched. They said contingency plans have been drawn up if they show signs of being readied to be loaded and used as weapons.
Who are the close watchers and what are the contingency plans?
In its last issue, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources disclosed that US, Israeli, Jordanian and Turkish special forces are spread out on the ground in Syria, armed with special gear for combating chemical arms. They are close enough to count the convoys carrying canisters, shells or bombs loaded with poison gas and their reports are supplemented by orbiting US military surveillance satellites and drones able to pinpoint the position of the chemical munitions at any given moment.
DEBKAfile also reported Saturday that the rebels had seized a “chlorine factor” at Al Safir, the cover name for Bashar Assad’s largest chemical store and base, where also he keeps Syrian Scud D missiles armed with chemical warheads ready to fire at Israel.
The strange thing about these tactics is this: If “US officials” – military and intelligence – were able to keep track step by step of the movements of Syria’s poisonous weapons, believe that sooner or later Assad will use them and have issued grave warnings, why didn’t they take preventive action in good time?
Yet to date, President Barack Obama has held back from ordering an attack on the Syrian army’s chemical units – just as the Syrian ruler is abstaining from issuing the final “go” order to use those weapons.
It seems that neither wants to go first.
We seem to be witnessing a high-stake poker game between Washington and Damascus over a deck of chemical cards, each waiting to see who blinks first.If the Americans attack, Assad will feel he is justified in releasing his poisonous gas over Turkey, Jordan and Israel.
Who are the close watchers and what are the contingency plans?
In its last issue, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources disclosed that US, Israeli, Jordanian and Turkish special forces are spread out on the ground in Syria, armed with special gear for combating chemical arms. They are close enough to count the convoys carrying canisters, shells or bombs loaded with poison gas and their reports are supplemented by orbiting US military surveillance satellites and drones able to pinpoint the position of the chemical munitions at any given moment.
DEBKAfile also reported Saturday that the rebels had seized a “chlorine factor” at Al Safir, the cover name for Bashar Assad’s largest chemical store and base, where also he keeps Syrian Scud D missiles armed with chemical warheads ready to fire at Israel.
The strange thing about these tactics is this: If “US officials” – military and intelligence – were able to keep track step by step of the movements of Syria’s poisonous weapons, believe that sooner or later Assad will use them and have issued grave warnings, why didn’t they take preventive action in good time?
Yet to date, President Barack Obama has held back from ordering an attack on the Syrian army’s chemical units – just as the Syrian ruler is abstaining from issuing the final “go” order to use those weapons.
It seems that neither wants to go first.
We seem to be witnessing a high-stake poker game between Washington and Damascus over a deck of chemical cards, each waiting to see who blinks first.If the Americans attack, Assad will feel he is justified in releasing his poisonous gas over Turkey, Jordan and Israel.
But if Assad loses his nerve and lets loose with chemical weapons inside or outside Syria, the Americans will come crashing down on him with the full might of the US air, sea and marine forces standing by off the Syrian coast, along with Turkish, Israeli and Jordanian strikes against targets in Syria.
Tuesday Dec. 6, Syrian chemical weapons units positioned near the capital, Damascus were first sighted by military and intelligence personnel heading north on the road to Aleppo armed with shells loaded with nerve agents - sarin and possibly XV. Three days later, the movements continued to destinations unknown.
Intelligence experts are speculating that these convoys may be decoys for distracting attention from still- undiscovered poison gas caches. Large-scale Western naval and marines forces are therefore on elevated readiness for responding to any unexpected Syrian moves.
Those experts offer two theories about the destination of the chemicals weapons. One is that they are not destined for any of the battle fronts against the rebels, but for the Alawite Mountains; Assad is getting ready to retreat from Damascus and barricade himself in his mountain stronghold accompanied by the forces still loyal to him. Another theory is that from the Allawite Mts. near the coast, the Syrian ruler was planning to hit American and Turkish soldiers with chemical weapons as they came ashore.
and...
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/12/09/277075/russia-opposes-libyan-scenario-in-syria/
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has expressed Moscow’s strong opposition to repetition of the Libyan scenario in the conflict-stricken Syria, stressing that the Kremlin will not allow such a thing happen again.
“We’ll not allow the Libyan experience to be reproduced in Syria. Unfortunately our Western partners have departed from the Geneva accords and are seeking the departure of [Syrian President] Bashar al-Assad,” RIA Novosti news agency quoted Lavrov as saying on Sunday.
He went on to note that Russia had not been involved in any talks on Assad’s future, dismissing speculation that Moscow was preparing for the Syrian leader’s departure.
"We are not holding any talks on the fate of Assad," Lavrov said. "All attempts to present the situation differently are rather shady, even for the diplomacy of those countries that are known for striving to distort facts in their own favor."
He stressed that the priority was to end the unrest in Syria, not to discuss the fate of one man.
The Russian foreign minister added that the Kremlin was not clinging to any individual leader in Syria, saying, "Our position on Syria is well-known. Moscow does not stick to Assad or to some other figure on the Syrian political scene."
Syria has been experiencing unrest since March 2011. Many people, including large numbers of security forces, have been killed in the turmoil. The Syrian government says the chaos is being orchestrated from outside the country, and there are reports that a very large number of the militants are foreign nationals.
and...
Assad’s last warning to rebels before using chemical weapons. West, Israel on high preparedness
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 8, 2012, 5:10 PM (GMT+02:00)
Sarin canisters stored in Syria
The danger that Syrian ruler Bashar Assad will now resort to chemical warfare shot up Saturday afternoon, Dec. 8, after the rebels captured the “chloride factory” at Al Safira east of Aleppo. This is a codename for the Syrian army’s biggest chemical weapons store and base, which also houses Syrian Scud D missiles armed with chemical warheads adjusted to fire at Israel. Assad’s warning to the rebels not to fight with chemical weapons is taken as a means of justifying his own resort to chemical weapons and brought this threat closer than ever before. The West, Israel and Syria’s other neighbors have gone on elevated preparedness. DEBKAfile file: The fall of Al Safira into rebel hands crosses a red line and places the Assad regime in direct peril. Possession of the chemical-tipped Scuds gives the rebels their strongest weapon for forcing the Syria army to capitulate.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said earlier Saturday that the UK and the US have seen evidence that Syria is preparing to use chemical weapons. There was enough evidence from intelligence sources to know “that they need a warning,” he said at a security conference in Bahrain. "The President of the United Sates warned of serious consequences and he meant it,” said the British minister.
British intelligence sources told the BBC that Syria's chemical weapons are concentrated at five air bases and are being closely watched. They said contingency plans have been drawn up if they show signs of being readied to be loaded and used as weapons.
DEBKAfile reported this week that US British and French air, sea and marine forces are concentrated opposition Syrian shores and across its Turkish and Jordanian borders.
Developing…
Developing…
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Assad’s troops, more chemical arms move NW, Iranian arms airlift to Palmyra
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 8, 2012, 11:36 AM (GMT+02:00)
Shells containing sarin in Syrian storage
US, Turkish, British, Jordanian and French forces are standing ready around Syrian bordersfor the order to go forward still to come from US President Barack Obama. Syrian President Bashar Assad is regrouping his army in defense array in strategic parts of Damascus, while planting mines and bomb traps in abandoned bases. Convoys carrying missiles, shells and canisters armed with chemical and biological weapons continue to ply roads to the north, while the airlift of Iranian arms is rerouted to northern air bases.
The situation in Syria as it stands Saturday, Dec. 8. is summed up by DEBKAfile’s military sources:
The situation in Syria as it stands Saturday, Dec. 8. is summed up by DEBKAfile’s military sources:
1. Assad has so far resisted rebel pressure to withdraw with his army from the capital, Damascus, but as in Syria’s largest town, Aleppo, he has regrouped his forces for the defense of centers of government against the rebel push from the east.
For now, his army fully controls the western districts of Damascus and areas up to Zabadani on the Lebanese border. This keeps the Syrian ruler’s direct military corridor open to a key prop of his regime, Hizballah, on the other side of the border.
For now, his army fully controls the western districts of Damascus and areas up to Zabadani on the Lebanese border. This keeps the Syrian ruler’s direct military corridor open to a key prop of his regime, Hizballah, on the other side of the border.
2. His second key prop is the air passage plied by Iranian transports for keeping his army furnished with arms and ammunition. Up until midweek, the Iranian planes, coming in at the rate of three or four transports a day, were landing at Damascus military air base, which is section of its international airport. Friday, Nov. 7, the rebels declared both the civilian and military sections of Damascus airport a military target. All planes were warned that by landing there they risked being shot down by the shells or anti-air missiles recently delivered to them by Qatar or booty taken from the Syrian army bases they captured.
Following the rebel warning, the Iranian transports were being rerouted to the Shayrat and Tiyas airbase between the northern Syrian towns of Homs and Palmyra.
This necessitates intense Syrian army effort to keep the roads open for the incoming Iranian supplies to reach the hands of the units fighting in Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia.
3. Syrian engineering units are systematically planting mines and booby-trapping the buildings at the bases from which the army has retreated. Our military sources were told that the quantity of explosives Assad’s troops are leaving in their wake would take years to clear.
Following the rebel warning, the Iranian transports were being rerouted to the Shayrat and Tiyas airbase between the northern Syrian towns of Homs and Palmyra.
This necessitates intense Syrian army effort to keep the roads open for the incoming Iranian supplies to reach the hands of the units fighting in Damascus, Aleppo and Latakia.
3. Syrian engineering units are systematically planting mines and booby-trapping the buildings at the bases from which the army has retreated. Our military sources were told that the quantity of explosives Assad’s troops are leaving in their wake would take years to clear.
4. There has been no letup in the military convoys heading north with missiles, shells and bombs containing chemical arms.
Western intelligence sources say Assad is keeping the convoys moving on the roads for two purposes:One, as a red warning to the Western and Arab powers preparing to intervene in the Syrian conflict that any attack or attempt to impose a no-fly zone over the country would trigger a chemical offensive.
Western intelligence sources say Assad is keeping the convoys moving on the roads for two purposes:One, as a red warning to the Western and Arab powers preparing to intervene in the Syrian conflict that any attack or attempt to impose a no-fly zone over the country would trigger a chemical offensive.
And two, to confuse his enemies: The poison gas weapons apparently moving openly along Syrian highways may be decoys to conceal the operational chemical warfare units which some Western intelligence watchers suspect are kept hidden until Assad gives them the order to strike.
and...
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/12/syria-chemical-terror/
Syrian Bombs Are Now Filled With Chemicals — And Could Be Up for Grabs
- 12.07.12
- 1:45 PM
An American sailor during a simulated chemical attack. Photo: U.S. Navy
The Bashir Assad regime in Syria is loading of some of its weapons with deadly nerve agents, andmixing together the chemical precursors needed to carry out a sarin-laced attack. But that may not be the biggest chemical threat Syria faces. There’s also an increasing chance that a terror group might get its hands on some of the planet’s most gruesome chemical arms.
Assad’s chemical corps have spent years buying up and experimenting with the chemicals needed to make the nerve agent sarin; not even an increasingly bloody civil war has kept the labs from running. Today, Syria-watchers in the U.S. government believe, these chemical engineers may be skilled enough in handling sarin that the nerve agent might remain deadly for up to a year. (“This is not a ‘move it or lose it’ situation,” one American official tells Danger Room.) And during that time, the sarin could be acquired by one of the Islamic extremists working in the loosely led rebel movement to topple the Assad regime. In other words: There’s the prospect of chemically armed terrorists emerging from the Syrian civil war.
“Uncertainties regarding this crisis are pervasive, yet at least one outcome is highly probable: terrorist acquisition of chemical weapons if the regime falls,” writes Federation of American Scientists analyst Charles Blair.
The nerve agent sarin is inherently unstable, breaking down over time and potentially corroding its containers — especially if the sarin is anything less than pure. So when Assad’s engineers began combining some of its stores of phosphorous compounds and isopropanol to make the deadly agent, it sparked fears that the Syrian military would either have to have employ the chemical weapons, or see a portion of its stockpile vanish.
But there’s a converse, and potentially more troubling, scenario. If Assad’s sarin is stable enough to last for months, as U.S. observers believe, it could be a tempting target for some of the more radical elements in the Syrian opposition. With more than 500 metric tons of nerve agent precursors scattered across more than two dozen sites, there have long been opportunities for a militant band getting its hands of some portion of these chemicals. Now that some of those precursors have been combined and loaded into munitions in central Syria, it makes the prospect of such acquisitions even more dark. Yes, mixed sarin is much more dangerous to maintain and transport than its precursor chemicals separately; “it makes handling this stuff ten times harder,” says one U.S. official. But is easier to employ as a weapon.
These safety and security concerns led the U.S. and other chemical-armed states during the Cold War to build artillery rounds that keep the two “binary” precursors separate. Only when the round is fired — and spinning thousands of times per minute — does the membrane separating the two chemicals break, and the deadly combination form.
But this decades-old approach has been difficult for other states to master. The Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq, for example, “tested a limited number of binary artillery systems, including 155-mm and 152-mm shells for sarin, but did not enter serial production of such systems,” according to one United Nations report (.pdf). During Hussein’s war with Iran in the 1980s, Baghdad’s military didn’t use the binary shells during its chemical attacks. “The Iraqis used to make it [the sarin] up and shoot it off right away,” RAND corporation unconventional weapons specialist James Quinivan tells Danger Room.
Many of Syria’s chemical-capable munition arms aren’t artillery rounds at all. They’re BM-21 “Grad” rockets and rudimentary Soviet-era gravity bombs, designed to be dropped from airplanes. Neither of them spins fast enough to break a membrane in-flight. Depending on the weapon, the precursor chemicals are loaded in separately, and then mixed within the munition while it is still on the ground. “Or they’ll mix it before putting it on the weapons,” one U.S. weapons intelligence expert tells Danger Room. “This is Russian stuff, older. So there’s just a single chamber” on the munition.
The blending is a tricky process; the precursors have to agitated just so, and sometimes cooled as they are mixed. But if it’s done right, the result is a nerve agent so awful and so taboo, no one in the world has dared to used it for decades. That is a point the Syrian military has now reached; “they’ve gotten to the point where the can load it up on a plane and drop it,” an American official told Danger Rom earlier this week. Hopefully, the prohibition against used these weapons will still hold.
In the meantime, according to one report, Western governments are training some of the more responsible Syrian rebel groups in chemical weapons security. The training is reportedly taking place in Jordan and in Turkey, where the U.S. has been schooling the rebels for months in using the latest communications gear. “U.S. contractors have also been on the ground in Syria to monitor the status of regime stockpiles,” according to the new Syria Deeply site.
At least one opposition leader is trying to work behind the scenes with Assad officials to keep the weapons and their chemical precursors safe. And everyone from President Obama to the U.N. Secretary-General to the head of NATO are warning Damascus not to go any further with its nerve agent preparations.
“Our concerns are that an increasingly desperate Assad regime might turn to chemical weapons or might lose control of them to one of the many groups that are now operating within Syria,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday, in advance of a meeting with her Russian counterpart. “And so, as part of the absolute unity that we all have on this issue, we have sent an unmistakable message that this would cross a red line and those responsible would be held to account.”
and.......
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/syrian-wmd-nightmare-continues/?utm_source=Contextly&utm_medium=RelatedLinks&utm_campaign=Previous
Syrian Rebels Might Not Give Up Assad’s Chemical Arms
- 07.24.12
- 3:13 PM
Free Syrian Army in Idlib, Syria. Photo: AP/Shaam News Network
On Monday, the Assad regime caused an international stir when they said they just might use chemical weapons to stop so-called “external aggression“; it pissed off Syria’s allies in the Kremlin, and now Damascus is doing its best to take back the threat. However, the bigger news might have been made over the weekend when one of the heads of the Syrian rebels said the Free Syrian Army waspreparing to secure Assad’s chemical stockpiles and gave no indication that the FSA was ready to give them up.
The Assad regime removed a bit of the veil surrounding its illicit arsenals by admitting that it did indeed possess chemical weapons. The Assad regime vowed not to use its WMD against its own people — perhaps a tacit acknowledgement that this might be the final red line that forced outside intervention in Syria’s growing civil war. Using chemical weapons like that would also remove the regime’s diplomatic top cover from powers like Russia, who today publicly chided Syria over its WMD talk. However, the pledge not to use WMD domestically was veiled in a bigger threat to the outside word—stay out or theVX-tipped missiles fly.
Of course, all bets are off should Assad get backed further into a corner by the rebellion. The regime still might face a “use them or lose them” scenario. My assessment is that if faced between dying in a ditch like Gadhafi or using his WMD, Assad will choose WMD. For the sake of the Syrian people, I hope not. The question remains will the Syrian WMD deterrent work, and if so, what does that mean for larger nonproliferation efforts?
These kind of questions may even continue after Assad is gone. Leaders of the Free Syrian Army say they know about Assad’s unconventional stockpiles — and are creating specially-trained units to secure them. A former regime officer named General Adnan Silou is heading up the FSA efforts to secure the WMD. He claims to have trained the Syrian Army “in securing stores, in reconnaissance of possible threats, in how to purge supplies and in treatment should Syria come under attack a chemical or biological attack.” This sounds similar to what the U.S. Army Chemical Materials Agency does to manage remaining American chemical stockpiles as they await final destruction. As welcome as FSA efforts to secure the dangerous materials are, there is no indication yet that the rebels will actually get rid of the WMD.
Silou stated, “the weapons used to be to protect Syria. Now they are just to protect Bashar.” This does not sound like a man who wants to bring Syria into compliance with global nonproliferation efforts. Instead, it sounds like a man who understands the deterrent value of Syria’s WMD and wishes to retain it. This is yet another piece of the puzzle for those advocating supporting the rebellion. Will an FSA-led Syria be any better than Assad?
3) Greece bond buyback assumed to be successful - and if it isn't successful , then ? And will Greece satisfy all of the other Troika demands , including new ones that may arise for the first time next week ? And the recent update below indicates buyback did not hit target , so now what ?
Athens may ask for additional buyback offers
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The invitation might be renewed on Monday to top up the offers already received, three officials close to the proceedings told Reuters. «It's possible,» a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Another government official and a banker confirmed the move was under consideration.
Athens plans to buy back bonds with a face value of about 30 billion euros at deeply discounted prices to lower its debt load. A deadline for bondholders to submit offers expired on Friday. A Greek government official said on Saturday that Athens had received offers of about that sum.
The officials' comments confirm a report earlier on Sunday by television station Mega, which said that Athens was very close to hitting the 30-billion euro mark and that it might renew the invitation for a short period to collect additional bids from Greek banks on standby to provide them.
By Friday Greece received offers for at least 15-16 billion euros from foreign investors and about 10-11 billion from Greek banks, Mega said.
Greek banks, which hold about 17 billion euros of bonds, said on Friday they would participate in the deal but did not reveal how many of their bonds they were willing to exchange. Their boards authorized management on Friday to offer up to 100 percent of lenders' bondholdings.
The buyback accounts for about half of a 40-billion euro EU/IMF debt relief package for Athens agreed in November. Its success will ensure that the IMF, which contributes about a third of Greece's bailout loans, will stay on board of the rescue.
Greece and its international lenders have shied from setting a binding target for the plan, apart from saying that Athens should spend at most 10 billion euros on it. Officials told Reuters the aim was to purchase about 30 billion euros of debt, thus reducing Greece's debt load by a net 20 billion euros.
Greek bankers had been reluctant to take part in the scheme, for fear of foregoing future profits on their Greek bonds.
However, they have to make sure it succeeds because they depend on the bailout funds that Athens stands to receive if the buyback succeeds and its bailout to continue smoothly.
Almost 24 billion euros from the 34.4 billion euros Greece stands to receive from its lenders later this month will be used to refloat Greek banks, whose capital has been largely depleted by the country's debt crisis.
Another source told Reuters that Greece might have secured additional financing from its lenders for the plan and could be re-opening it to attract additional interest from foreign bondholders.
"In the knowledge that the buyback will succeed, investors might be willing to increase their offers,» he said.
Another source told Reuters that Greece might have secured additional financing from its lenders for the plan and could be re-opening it to attract additional interest from foreign bondholders.
"In the knowledge that the buyback will succeed, investors might be willing to increase their offers,» he said.
Greek Debt Buyback Participation Still Short Of Target After Deadline
The tension over the Greek buyback, which was supposed to be completed on Friday with satisfactory terms, i.e., holders of more than EUR30 billion of new bonds tendering (at prices between 30 and 40 cents on the euro), is rising following a report from Kathimerini that roughly EUR25-26 billion has been accounted for, short of the formal target needed to hit the deleveraging goal. Confirming that the biggest beneficiary from the buyback are foreign (mostly US-based) hedge funds, while the biggest loser are Greek banks, is the participation rate which has seen a majority of the tenders, EUR16 billion, come from hedge funds happy with a 100-200% return in a few months asexplained previously. For the banks the pain of writing down debt by two thirds once more after doing the same in March is far greater and explains why only EUR10 billion (of a total of EUR15 billion held by the sector) have been tendered into the buyback, by official Greek financial institutions who are also fearing retribution from shareholders despite official promises by the Greek FinMin they would be shielded from the fury of the people. That said, insolvent Greek banks have no choice if they wish to receive the billions in Troika funds used to replenish their underwater capital base and like it or not have to agree to the debt deal.
So with the target still shy by EUR4-5 billion, Greece is doing all it can to spin the deal as overwhelmingly successful, even though it knows full well it still doesn't have the numbers, to get even greater participation and avoid the perception that holdouts have any leverage from a Nash equilibrium standpoint, and can demand even betterterms by not tendering bonds. As such Kathimerini adds that the offer books will likely be reopened on Monday, contrary to what had been said previously, so that the transaction can be completed by the "drop dead" deadline of December 13 when the much delayed bailout tranche finally has to be wired.
Some more from the WSJ:
Greece was close to achieving its target in a multibillion-euro debt-buyback plan demanded by the country's official creditors as a precondition for unlocking fresh aid to the country, officials familiar with the plan said Saturday.
Greece's debt-management agency—tasked with conducting the buyback—finished Saturday tallying up the results of bids made by investors interested in taking part in the deal. According to the officials, the total bid from both domestic and foreign holders of Greek bonds was close to a targeted €30 billion ($38.78 billion). When a formal announcement would be made was unclear.
"The results are between satisfactory and good," said a senior government official. "We haven't hit [the target] yet, but it will happen."
Greece ended the offer period for its debt-buyback program Friday evening, roughly two weeks after euro-zone finance ministers agreed in Brussels on a complex series of measures to reduce Greece's debt burden further. The most significant of those measures was a plan under which Greece would use as much as €10 billion to buy back outstanding bonds at around a third of their face value, thereby shaving €20 billion off the debt.
Euro-zone ministers and the International Monetary Fund have made that buyback program a precondition for unlocking a next tranche of badly needed aid to Greece. And the buyback must be completed by Wednesday, the day before euro-zone finance ministers are set to decide whether to greenlight the next tranche of aid.Greece's Public Debt Management Agency gave bondholders until 5 p.m. London time Friday to make offers of how many bonds they would sell and at what price. A final decision on how many bonds the government will actually buy, at what price, and how much the Greek banks will hand over, might not come for several days, according to people familiar with the deal.
Of course, the question of how "voluntary" tenders of EUR26 billion out of a total outstanding GGB2 pari passu bond notional of over EUR60 billion can be claimed to be representative of a full voluntary full class endorsement, remains open. But anything as long as it is "voluntary" for anyone but the hedge funds who bought said debt at realistic prices in the teens.
To summarize, Europe continues to do everything down to the wire, with every decision being a push, usually involving a phone call from very high sources to get holdouts on the side of the needed consensus to keep everything from unwinding. And while the buyback may pass, in the 11th hour and 59th minute, one day a marginal decision-maker in Europe or elsewhere, may get the impression that defecting from the fold just may be the best game theoretical option, and send it all crashing down. Just when and where this event will take place of course remains a mystery.
The euro zone is hoping Greece will be able to repurchase at least 40 billion euros of its own bonds in a buyback operation with private investors, two euro zone officials said on Friday.
Euro zone finance ministers expect Athens to spend 10.2 billion euros to buy back at least two-thirds of the 63 billion euros of bonds still in private hands after a debt restructuring in March. The details of the buyback will be published on Monday.
Euro zone finance ministers expect Athens to spend 10.2 billion euros to buy back at least two-thirds of the 63 billion euros of bonds still in private hands after a debt restructuring in March. The details of the buyback will be published on Monday.
The ministers have said the price offered by Athens for the bonds under the voluntary operation should not be higher than the closing price of November 23.
Because there are various maturities trading, the price range is from 25.15 euro cents to 34.41 cents.
Asked what the expected size of the buyback would be, one euro zone official said: “Minimum 40 billion euros” and a second confirmed the expectation.
Because there are various maturities trading, the price range is from 25.15 euro cents to 34.41 cents.
Asked what the expected size of the buyback would be, one euro zone official said: “Minimum 40 billion euros” and a second confirmed the expectation.
( Note Troika expectations was that at least 40 billion euros on bonds were to be bought back by Greece , so we shall see if 30 billion euros worth is sufficient - and we shall see what the actual number is next week .. And Greece buying back bonds from Greek banks , who in turn are the only ongoing buyers of greek debt apart from opportunistic hedge funds buying distressed debt is just a circle jerk. Key will be seeing how much debt was actually tendered by hedge funds or non greek sources . )
Investors Agree to Greek Bond Buyback
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Holders of Greek bonds, including Greek banks as well as foreign institutions, have agreed to sell back some 30 billion euros ($38.8) of their holdings, government officials said, meeting a target to release a series of $56.7 billion in more rescue loans from international lenders. The deadline for participation was Dec. 7 and the details are set to be announced on Dec. 10.
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Holders of Greek bonds, including Greek banks as well as foreign institutions, have agreed to sell back some 30 billion euros ($38.8) of their holdings, government officials said, meeting a target to release a series of $56.7 billion in more rescue loans from international lenders. The deadline for participation was Dec. 7 and the details are set to be announced on Dec. 10.
The Troika of the European Union-International Monetary Fund-European Central Bank (EU-IMF-ECB) that is putting up the bailout, said it was conditional on Greece convincing investors to sell back the bonds at a discount big enough for the country to write down its debt by 20 billion euros ($25.4 billion) to sustain its debt management.
Under its terms, Greece will spend up to 10 billion euros ($12.7 billion) of borrowed money to buy back the 30 billion euros in bonds, but at a deep discount that reduces the debt by twice the Greek purchase price.
“The buyback went well in broad terms. The amount offered by investors was within the range expected, about 30 billion euros,” an official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Greek banks, which hold about 17 billion euros ($21.97 billion) of bonds, said they would participate in the buyback although the government offered to exempt them and will protect them from suits by shareholders over their losses.
Foreign investors have offered between 15-16 billion euros ($19.3-$20.6 billion) worth of bonds, Greek newspapers reported. The plan came together after the government increased how much it was willing to pay, although investors will still take losses of more than 60 percent. Hedge funds, which bought Greek debt at rock-bottom prices when it was feared Greece might be forced out of the Eurozone, are expected to make a killing on their investment.
Banking sources told Kathimerini that Greece’s four main banks – National, Eurobank, Alpha and Piraeus – submitted all their bonds, with a nominal value of 11.5 billion euros, ($14.86 billion) to the buyback process. The participation of several other smaller Greek banks meant that local lenders submitted a total of 16 billion euros’ ($20.6 billion) worth of bonds. A total of 63 billion euros ($81.44 billion) of Greek papers was eligible for the buyback.
Greek banks were hoping to keep 20 to 30 percent of their bond holdings to minimize their losses. While they will a small short-term gain from the buyback as the bonds had been recorded in their books at a value of 30 percent, Greece’s four main lenders will lose 7.5 billion euros ($9.69 billion) as a result of not holding the bonds to maturity, further weakening them after a previous administration imposed 74 percent losses on investors.
Sources told Kathimerini that Greek bankers are hoping that the government will provide other ways of absorbing this cost, such as tax breaks and they are still awaiting a recapitalization of 50 billion euros ($64.3 billion) to stay solvent.
Greek bond buyback a success: reports
Employees of the Greek Social Security Foundation demonstrate against austerity measures during a protest held outside the Labour Ministry in Athens, on December 7. A Greek operation to buy back some of the country's huge debt at reduced prices to access additional EU-IMF financial aid has met the 30-billion-euro target set by the authorities, according to news reports.
AFP - A Greek operation to buy back some of the country's huge debt at reduced prices to access additional EU-IMF financial aid has met the 30-billion-euro target set by the authorities, news reports said on Saturday.
Financial daily Naftemboriki said foreign debt-holders had offered to sell sovereign bonds worth around 15 billion euros ($19.5 billion) while Greek banks had contributed another 15 billion euros by the required deadline on Friday.
Kathimerini daily added that Greece's four main banks -- National Bank, Eurobank, Alpha and Piraeus -- had contributed state bonds worth around 11.5 billion euros.
The state management agency is expected to announce initial results from the operation later on Saturday, a finance ministry source said.
Greece began the buyback on Monday in a bid to cut the national debt by around 20 billion euros ($26 billion), inviting eligible holders to turn in sovereign bonds for 32.2 to 40.1 percent of their face value.
Those who participated were to receive six-month bills issued by the European Union's EFSF rescue fund with up to 10 billion euros available from the fund for the operation.
With the value of Greek bonds having plunged in recent years, this money was considered sufficient to buy back debt worth 30 billion euros.
About 20 different series of Greek sovereign bonds held by private creditors with a face value of 62.3 billion euros were eligible for the buyback.
Financial daily Naftemboriki said foreign debt-holders had offered to sell sovereign bonds worth around 15 billion euros ($19.5 billion) while Greek banks had contributed another 15 billion euros by the required deadline on Friday.
Kathimerini daily added that Greece's four main banks -- National Bank, Eurobank, Alpha and Piraeus -- had contributed state bonds worth around 11.5 billion euros.
The state management agency is expected to announce initial results from the operation later on Saturday, a finance ministry source said.
Greece began the buyback on Monday in a bid to cut the national debt by around 20 billion euros ($26 billion), inviting eligible holders to turn in sovereign bonds for 32.2 to 40.1 percent of their face value.
Those who participated were to receive six-month bills issued by the European Union's EFSF rescue fund with up to 10 billion euros available from the fund for the operation.
With the value of Greek bonds having plunged in recent years, this money was considered sufficient to buy back debt worth 30 billion euros.
About 20 different series of Greek sovereign bonds held by private creditors with a face value of 62.3 billion euros were eligible for the buyback.
The operation is tied to the release of 43.7 billion euros in rescue loans from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
By using newly-borrowed money to buy back its sovereign bonds at a heavy discount, Greece reduces the total burden of debt in what amounts to a refinancing scheme.
By using newly-borrowed money to buy back its sovereign bonds at a heavy discount, Greece reduces the total burden of debt in what amounts to a refinancing scheme.
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