http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2236095/EU-Budget-David-Cameron-fighting-hard-secure-good-deal-Brussels.html
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Labour agreed that the rebate should no longer apply to investment in relatively poor new member
states, meaning Britain’s contributions will inevitably rise as the EU enlarges
http://www.redliontrader.com/streamingnews/cyprus-reaches-agreement-on-bailout-with-the-eu-and-the-imf-according-to-ana/
Cyprus may need as much as 17.5 billion euros ($22.5 billion) in aid, almost the size of the country’s economy, to pay its bills and recapitalize Cypriot banks, Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly said.
Talks between Cyprus and its potential troika of lenders comprising the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund “are continuing, and we hope outstanding issues are settled soon,” Shiarly told reporters in Nicosia on Thursday after presenting the 2013 budget to Parliament Speaker Yiannakis Omirou. The budget contains cuts already approved by the troika.
Cyprus on June 25 became the fifth euro-area member to request an international rescue, which will encompass the public sector as well as banks, after Cypriot lenders such as Bank of Cyprus Plc and Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl lost more than 4 billion euros in Greece’s debt restructuring.
The Cypriot bailout will amount to about 6 billion euros to refinance state debt from 2013 to 2016 and 1.5 billion euros to cover fiscal deficits, Shiarly said, while as much as 10 billion euros may be required for the bank recapitalization.
The final amount of aid will be known after a review of the country’s banking system by Pacific Investment Management Co. that is due in late January, he said. The exercise includes an asset-quality review and a stress test to determine the capital needs of each institution, the Central Bank of Cyprus said on Sept. 28.
Few differences with the troika remain and these are likely to be bridged “very soon,” Cypriot President Demetris Christofias said in an e-mailed statement Thursday. A possible agreement with the troika may be discussed at a Dec. 3 meeting of euro-area finance ministers, Shiarly said.
Fitch Ratings Wednesday cut its below-investment grade credit rating for Cyprus by two levels to BB- from BB+, citing a fiscal budget that has “significantly underperformed expectations.” Fitch also cited a continued high level of uncertainty over costs associated with the recapitalization of Cypriot lenders.
and in other bailout news......
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/according-to-a-greek-official-bailout-loan-rates-key-obstacle-to-deal-22-11-2012
Looks like no Greek deal in sight.... just look at the usual liars spreading their bs...... but what is Lagarde saying , what is Germany saying ?
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20661
Not only is there an election looming, the Germans are also afraid that giving Greece a big break would entice other peripheral countries to demand the same or to begin wondering why they should bother with austerity measures. This assessment has a good chance of being correct.
and for a deal on Monday either the IMF , ECB or Germany must fold..... Will it be Germany ?
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_22/11/2012_471235
The top German at the European Central Bank urged his own country on Thursday to compromise in a stand-off over aid to Greece after officials said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had hinted at possible debt forgiveness, then backtracked.
Germany, the EU's biggest economy and paymaster, has led resistance within the euro zone to calls from the IMF and others to accept losses on their Greek debt holdings and give Greece, entering its sixth year of recession, a chance to grow again.
Greece's international creditors will hold crunch talks next Monday - their third meeting in as many weeks - to unlock loans needed to avert bankruptcy for the stricken nation. The EU's top economic official said on Thursday a deal could be struck.
"Those who want to avoid a haircut of public creditors and see that as a red line, must be ready to move on other issues,» ECB board member Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying in Germany's Passauer Neue Presse.
"Everyone must show a willingness to move as that's the only way we can come to a result next Monday."
Schaeuble reiterated on Thursday his official view that a writedown of Greek debt by euro zone governments would be wrong and illegal. But two sources told Reuters he had signalled a more flexible attitude at a small gathering of ministers in Paris on Monday, before the failed talks in Brussels on Tuesday.
"I understand... that some kind of 'conditional debt relief' was suggested by Schaeuble, but that he had to backtrack,» one euro zone source said of the Paris meeting. A second source confirmed his account.
The German finance ministry declined comment on the suggestion that Schaeuble had backtracked.
The second source said Schaeuble had referred to a speech last week by the head of Germany's central bank, Jens Weidmann, signalling possible support for debt relief for Greece in the future as a reward for implementing tough reforms.
"One can pose the question whether the leap of faith that you give (with a haircut) sets the right incentives or whether it would not make sense to set a haircut, which one will need in the end to regain capital market access, as a perspective for when the reforms... have been implemented,» Weidmann said.
The Bundesbank chief suggested any debt forgiveness could only come in 2015 or later, as a reward if Greece carries out its tough adjustment programme. That would also be after German general elections in September 2013.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn gave a similar hint when he told the European Parliament on Thursday that Greece's debt sustainability could be reassessed in the coming years if it sticks to its programme.
The second euro zone source said officials were discussing the option of different member states taking separate measures to help Greece - a sign that the divide between the creditors may be just too big to forge a common stance.
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Schaeuble have both raised such a prospect in the past couple of days.
Schaeuble said on Thursday a 'haircut' for public holders of Greek debt would end up harming Greece by blocking further aid.
"The moment we decide to give Greece a haircut, we cannot give Greece any new guarantees,» Schaeuble told a conference.
"That is logical because the budget law rightly says you can only take on guarantees if you believe that the debt will be paid back, so you can't do both,» he added.
Members of Merkel's centre-right coalition have said granting Greece debt relief would undermine the reform drive in other struggling euro zone countries such as Portugal.
Schaeuble said on Wednesday the funding gap could be funded by a mixture of letting Greece buy back its own debt at a discount, tapping ECB profits on Greek bond purchases and lowering interest rates on government loans to Athens, though not below the cost to lenders.
Rehn said Greece had taken all the reform steps required to receive its next 31 billion euro tranche of loans and finance ministers should be able to sign off on a deal next week.
"I trust everyone will reconvene in Brussels on Monday with the necessary constructive spirit, and move beyond the detrimental mindset of red lines,» he told parliament.
"Frankly, I see no reason why we should not be able to conclude the package - and do away with the uncertainty that has been holding back a return of confidence, and thus of investment and growth, in Greece."
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/11/2012_471190
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/11/2012_471195
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici appeared confident on Thursday that a deal on Greek debt would be reached on Monday.
“It is fundamental that this country, which has made so many efforts, have the solidarity of its European partners, while respecting the public finances of our states,” he said.
Moscovici's statements echoed earlier comments by Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic affairs, who told the European Parliament that Greece has taken all the steps necessary to secure its next tranche of aid and eurozone finance ministers should be able to sign off definitively on the assistance on Monday
“I trust everyone will reconvene in Brussels on Monday with the necessary constructive spirit, and move beyond the detrimental mindset of red lines,” Rehn said.
“Frankly, I see no reason why we should not be able to conclude the package - and do away with the uncertainty that has been holding back a return of confidence, and thus of investment and growth, in Greece,” he added.
Finance ministers have met twice in the past two weeks but failed both times to agree on the next steps for Greece and how to bring its debt level down to a sustainable level, despite more than 24 hours of negotiation.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, asked if he was worried about the non-payment of the aid tranche so far, on Thursday told reporters in Brussels:
“No, I don't have any worries but every day that goes by without a decision will burden the economy, its psychology, its markets and citizens and Greeks' pride.”
“I will not let the Greek people's sacrifices go to waste, you can be sure of that,” said Samaras, who was in Brussels for an EU budget summit.
and.....
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/22/eurozone-crisis-live-leaders-meet-eu-budget-summit
David Cameron says he is 'fighting hard' to protect EU budget as Dutch PM threatens to use 'loaded gun' veto in crunch talks
- Prime Minister takes early flight to start crunch talks with European leaders
- He has vowed to protect the rebate secured by Margaret Thatcher in 1984
- Nick Clegg urges 'common sense' when all governments are cutting back
- But France made it clear it is aiming to prise more cash out of the UK
By MATT CHORLEY and JAMES CHAPMAN
David Cameron vowed to fight 'incredibly hard' to secure a good deal at today's EU summit
European leaders today claimed Britain will 'have to be convinced' to accept a rise in Brussels spending as David Cameron scrambled to build support for a real terms freeze.
The Prime Minister today warned any increase in the European Union's budget would be 'quite wrong'.
He vowed to protect the UK's prized rebate from Brussels negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in 1984.
But Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's PM calling for a Budget increase, said Britain will have to fall into line.
'I can't imagine how we can convince them, but they will have to be convinced,' he told reporters as talks began in Brussels.
Mr Cameron flew out of Britain early this morning to be the first leader to hold face-to-face talks with Herman Van Rompuy, president of the European Council and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso.
The pair are meeting the other 26 EU leaders today ahead of formal talks over dinner tonight.
But tensions are already rising, with Britain demanding a cut or freeze in spending while other countries who benefit from vast EU handouts demanding big rises.
Sweden and the Netherlands have joined Britain in demanding big cuts. Germany, France, Finland and Austria want to freeze the maximum Brussels can draw from member states every year.
But 15 countries, led by Poland, want to see budget increases.
Amid growing speculation that the summit could continue until Sunday, Dutch PM Mark Rutte warned a deal will have to be done quickly or risk souring relations for months.
'If it doesn't happen at once we have to avoid worsening the atmosphere by so much that we need months to restore personal relations.'
Asked if he was ready to veto an unfavourable deal, Mr Rutte added: 'My idea is that you have to keep your loaded gun in your pocket and once you put it on the table you are putting so much pressure on the negotiations that they don't lead anywhere. I always have a loaded gun in my pocket during negotiations, only figuratively speaking, of course.'
Mr Cameron, who had a half hour meeting with Mr Van Rompuy and Mr Barroso, said: 'These are very important negotiations and clearly, at a time when we're making difficult decisions at home over public spending, it would be quite wrong - it is quite wrong - for there to be proposals for this increased extra spending in the EU.
'So we're going to be negotiating very hard for a good deal for Britain's taxpayers and for Europe's taxpayers, and to keep the British rebate.'
The summit will look to set the maximum ceiling for EU spending for 2014 to 2020 rather than the UK's contribution.
Mr van Rompuy has drawn up plans for a ceiling of 973 billion euros (£783 billion) at 2011 values.
This would represent a real-terms cut compared to the 993 billion euros limit for 2007-13. It is also well below the European Commission's request for 1,033 billion euros.
Nick Clegg said today: 'What we want from the European Union is just common sense. There is not enough money to go around at the moment. Everyone is tightening their belts, let's make sure it is reflected in the EU budget.'
A UK official said today: 'The Prime Minister wants an agreement, he is looking for an agreement," said one UK official. But he wants the EU budget to reflect what is happening in member states - and he wants the best deal for British taxpayers.'
Mr van Rompuy is holding one-on-one talks with all 27 leaders, including Mr Cameron, today before the summit formally opens.
Later he will produce a new 'negotiation box' which will try to take account of all the competing priorities of different countries.
There will then be a new round of wrangling. A third of countries is threatening to use a veto. The summit is due to end on Friday, but could last until Saturday or even Sunday.
One official said: 'Mr Van Rompuy will keep the leaders talking as long as it looks likely that there can be agreement.
'But he will not want to keep them at the negotiating table all weekend if the result is going to be a failure. There is the credibility of the EU to consider - better to end early and return another day than end in complete disarray.'
Ahead of today's crunch summit that is turning into a key diplomatic test of Mr Cameron’s premiership, France made it clear it is aiming to prise more cash out of the UK in the EU’s budget settlement for 2014 to 2020.
France’s socialist president Francois Hollande launched a thinly veiled attack on Britain’s ‘lack of solidarity’ with Europe for demanding it maintains its budget rebate.
Mr Hollande, whose country lost its AAA credit rating this week after putting the brakes on austerity measures, said countries he ‘would not name’ would come to the EU budget summit in Brussels today looking for ‘their discounts’.
‘At the exact moment we are calling for solidarity and mobilisation for growth, there are these countries that will be coming to get their cheques, their rebates and their discounts,’ he declared.
‘The idea that they have of Europe is to obtain exactly what they put in, as if solidarity doesn’t represent the most fortunate providing for the most hard up.’
Margaret Thatcher found that Britain's payments were relatively higher than other countries
And last night European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso attacked those – such as Mr Cameron – proposing cuts to EU spending.
‘The European budget is not, as is sometimes claimed, a budget for Brussels or Strasbourg,’ he said. ‘It is a budget for investing in the economy of all member states.
‘I have listened to the preparatory discussions, which all focus on how to make cuts. There is no real debate on the quality of investment – it is just cuts, cuts, cuts.’
European Council president Herman Van Rompuy appears open to British demands that the EU budget should be cut, but is understood to be proposing an £800million-a-year reduction in the rebate.
But in a sign of the scale of disagreement across the Continent, Britain is just one of ten countries threatening to block the proposed deal if changes are not made.
In the Commons, Tory MP David Nuttall challenged Mr Cameron to promise to veto any deal that reduces the rebate.
The Prime Minister answered: ‘I can give my honourable friend that assurance. The rebate, negotiated by Margaret Thatcher, is an incredibly important part of making sure Britain gets a fair deal in Europe.’
Mr Cameron launched a strong attack on Labour for giving up a chunk of the rebate in 2005 in return for reforms of agricultural subsidies that never materialised.
‘It is absolutely extraordinary that the last government gave away almost half of that rebate and we’ve never heard one word of apology, one word of regret, for the fact that however hard we fight in Europe – and I will be fighting incredibly hard this week for a good deal – they cut away our feet by giving away half the rebate,’ he said.
The rebate secured by Mrs Thatcher in Fontainebleau in 1984 is designed to compensate the UK for the fact that it receives relatively little support under the Common Agricultural Policy compared with similarly sized economies such as France.
It is worth about £2.9billion, and meant that Britain’s net contribution to the EU budget in 2010 was £5.9billion rather than £8.8billion.
Labour agreed that the rebate should no longer apply to investment in relatively poor new member
states, meaning Britain’s contributions will inevitably rise as the EU enlarges
http://www.redliontrader.com/streamingnews/cyprus-reaches-agreement-on-bailout-with-the-eu-and-the-imf-according-to-ana/
Cyprus reaches agreement on bailout with the EU and the IMF according to ANA
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Cyprus reaches agreement on bailout with the EU and the IMF according to ANA
Cyprus aid amount may reach 17.5 bln euros, FM says
Talks between Cyprus and its potential troika of lenders comprising the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund “are continuing, and we hope outstanding issues are settled soon,” Shiarly told reporters in Nicosia on Thursday after presenting the 2013 budget to Parliament Speaker Yiannakis Omirou. The budget contains cuts already approved by the troika.
Cyprus on June 25 became the fifth euro-area member to request an international rescue, which will encompass the public sector as well as banks, after Cypriot lenders such as Bank of Cyprus Plc and Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl lost more than 4 billion euros in Greece’s debt restructuring.
The Cypriot bailout will amount to about 6 billion euros to refinance state debt from 2013 to 2016 and 1.5 billion euros to cover fiscal deficits, Shiarly said, while as much as 10 billion euros may be required for the bank recapitalization.
The final amount of aid will be known after a review of the country’s banking system by Pacific Investment Management Co. that is due in late January, he said. The exercise includes an asset-quality review and a stress test to determine the capital needs of each institution, the Central Bank of Cyprus said on Sept. 28.
Few differences with the troika remain and these are likely to be bridged “very soon,” Cypriot President Demetris Christofias said in an e-mailed statement Thursday. A possible agreement with the troika may be discussed at a Dec. 3 meeting of euro-area finance ministers, Shiarly said.
Fitch Ratings Wednesday cut its below-investment grade credit rating for Cyprus by two levels to BB- from BB+, citing a fiscal budget that has “significantly underperformed expectations.” Fitch also cited a continued high level of uncertainty over costs associated with the recapitalization of Cypriot lenders.
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and in other bailout news......
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/according-to-a-greek-official-bailout-loan-rates-key-obstacle-to-deal-22-11-2012
According to a Greek official bailout loan rates key obstacle to deal
Says:
- Creditors may compromise on 124% debt/GDP ratio by 2020.
- Debt buyback funded by EFSF is an option.
- Creditors may compromise on 124% debt/GDP ratio by 2020.
- Debt buyback funded by EFSF is an option.
Newswires
19:28 - Economic commentary - Source: Looks like no Greek deal in sight.... just look at the usual liars spreading their bs...... but what is Lagarde saying , what is Germany saying ?
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=20661
IMF and Eurocrats in Clinch
Make no mistake, they are doing everything they can to keep Greece in the euro area. There have after all been many opportunities to just say 'game over' and they were never taken. We suspect there is a good reason for this: if Greece were to default and leave the euro zone, it would be proof that the euro is not 'irreversible'. It may well result in a chain reaction, with others leaving as well. So apparently the decision has been made to just keep bailing Greece out.
However, an unexpected delay has popped up. Greece still hasn't received its €31.5 billion aid tranche, in spite of fulfilling all the 'troika' demands – some of which almost caused the new coalition government to break apart.
The problem in a nutshell is this: everybody, including the IMF, knows that Greece cannot reach the long term debt targets that were set out in its bailout. It 'needs more time', but that means it also needs more money. Even if it gets both, it will under no circumstances be able to reach the debt/GDP ratio targets set out, even though the initial long term target is twiceas high as the maximum level allowed according to the Maastricht treaty. In other words, not even that farcical target is anywhere near the realm of the possible.
That ultimately means that someone must take a loss. Private creditors have already suffered an effective 70% markdown on their Greek bond holdings, so the only creditors left to take a hit are the official ones.
And this is where the problem is: there are elections in Germany next year. Imagine if Mrs. Merkel were to agree to a public sector 'haircut'. The opposition would rake her over the coals for 'breaking her promise that Germany wouldn't lose anything'. Naturally, had the opposition been in her shoes, they would now be facing exactly the same problem.
The IMF's leadership does not have to face elections. Given that the IMF does not solely represent European interests, it cannot keep making exceptions for Greece it would never have made elsewhere. And so the positions of the negotiators have produced a standoff.
“European finance ministers failed to agree on a debt-reduction package for Greece after battling with theInternational Monetary Fund over how to nurse the recession- wracked country back to fiscal health.With creditors led by Germany refusing to put up fresh money or offer debt relief, the finance chiefs were unable to scrape together enough funds from other sources to help alleviate Greece’s debt burden, set to hit 190 percent of gross domestic product in 2014.
Greece’s fiscal woes have defied three years of rescue efforts, rekindling doubts about Europe’s crisis-containment strategy and maintaining a cloud over the euro, postwar Europe’s signature economic accomplishment. More than 11 hours of talks broke up early today in Brussels without an agreement. That leaves the next aid payment, which has been held up since June, frozen until at least another emergency ministers’ meeting on Nov. 26.
“We have a series of options on the table on how to close the financing gap,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters. “We discussed the issue very intensively, but since the questions are so complicated we didn’t come to a final agreement.”
(emphasis added)
In reality, it is not at all as complicated as Schäuble makes it out to be.
Fatal Signal
Not only is there an election looming, the Germans are also afraid that giving Greece a big break would entice other peripheral countries to demand the same or to begin wondering why they should bother with austerity measures. This assessment has a good chance of being correct.
What he [Schäuble, ed.] didn't say is that the core of the debate is quite simple — and highlights the serious, and potentially dangerous, divide which has opened up between the euro-zone member states and the International Monetary Fund. Both sides are eager to see Greece's overall debt load shrink to a level that Athens can shoulder on its own. But whereas the IMF believes that the only sure way to get there is by ushering in another partial Greek default, euro-zone leaders, Germany first among them, would like to avoid such a scenario at all costs.With Greece having recently been granted two extra years to reach its budget deficit reduction targets, the debate is now focusing on overall debt reduction. The IMF insists that Athens reduce its debt load from a current level of around 170 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to a ratio of 120 percent by 2020. Based on measures in place today and current growth forecasts for the Greek economy — combined with the two-year budget deficit delay — that target is likely unreachable. As such, the IMF is insisting that Germany and other creditors forgive a portion of Greece's debt.Such a move, however, is anathema to Berlin. Indeed, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party on Wednesday once again emphasized its opposition to such a debt haircut. Norbert Barthle, a senior CDU parliamentarian and the party's budgetary spokesman in the Bundestag, told German radio that he "very much hopes" that Germany can ward off a debt haircut. A partial default, he said, "would be a fatal signal to Portugal, Ireland and perhaps even Spain." Such countries, he added, would immediately wonder why they should bother adopting difficult austerity and reform measures in the future.”
(emphasis added)
In the background there hovers however the fact that a haircut would mean that for the first time since the crisis began, the European bailout fund – and with it the countries financing it - would lose money. As Der Spiegel puts it, in view of the upcoming election “the appetite for such a move in Berlin is extremely limited.”
How will that impasse be resolved? It is hard to say, but we cannot see the IMF relenting on its position. One way or another, Greece will default again – whether now or later.
Greek bailouts and concessions granted along the way thus far – click for better resolution.
How do we know that Greece will eventually get the money? The ATG is going up – click for better resolution.
and for a deal on Monday either the IMF , ECB or Germany must fold..... Will it be Germany ?
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_22/11/2012_471235
Asmussen urges Germany to reach compromise on Greek debt
Germany, the EU's biggest economy and paymaster, has led resistance within the euro zone to calls from the IMF and others to accept losses on their Greek debt holdings and give Greece, entering its sixth year of recession, a chance to grow again.
Greece's international creditors will hold crunch talks next Monday - their third meeting in as many weeks - to unlock loans needed to avert bankruptcy for the stricken nation. The EU's top economic official said on Thursday a deal could be struck.
"Those who want to avoid a haircut of public creditors and see that as a red line, must be ready to move on other issues,» ECB board member Joerg Asmussen was quoted as saying in Germany's Passauer Neue Presse.
"Everyone must show a willingness to move as that's the only way we can come to a result next Monday."
Schaeuble reiterated on Thursday his official view that a writedown of Greek debt by euro zone governments would be wrong and illegal. But two sources told Reuters he had signalled a more flexible attitude at a small gathering of ministers in Paris on Monday, before the failed talks in Brussels on Tuesday.
"I understand... that some kind of 'conditional debt relief' was suggested by Schaeuble, but that he had to backtrack,» one euro zone source said of the Paris meeting. A second source confirmed his account.
The German finance ministry declined comment on the suggestion that Schaeuble had backtracked.
The second source said Schaeuble had referred to a speech last week by the head of Germany's central bank, Jens Weidmann, signalling possible support for debt relief for Greece in the future as a reward for implementing tough reforms.
"One can pose the question whether the leap of faith that you give (with a haircut) sets the right incentives or whether it would not make sense to set a haircut, which one will need in the end to regain capital market access, as a perspective for when the reforms... have been implemented,» Weidmann said.
The Bundesbank chief suggested any debt forgiveness could only come in 2015 or later, as a reward if Greece carries out its tough adjustment programme. That would also be after German general elections in September 2013.
EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn gave a similar hint when he told the European Parliament on Thursday that Greece's debt sustainability could be reassessed in the coming years if it sticks to its programme.
The second euro zone source said officials were discussing the option of different member states taking separate measures to help Greece - a sign that the divide between the creditors may be just too big to forge a common stance.
Chancellor Angela Merkel and Schaeuble have both raised such a prospect in the past couple of days.
Schaeuble said on Thursday a 'haircut' for public holders of Greek debt would end up harming Greece by blocking further aid.
"The moment we decide to give Greece a haircut, we cannot give Greece any new guarantees,» Schaeuble told a conference.
"That is logical because the budget law rightly says you can only take on guarantees if you believe that the debt will be paid back, so you can't do both,» he added.
Members of Merkel's centre-right coalition have said granting Greece debt relief would undermine the reform drive in other struggling euro zone countries such as Portugal.
Schaeuble said on Wednesday the funding gap could be funded by a mixture of letting Greece buy back its own debt at a discount, tapping ECB profits on Greek bond purchases and lowering interest rates on government loans to Athens, though not below the cost to lenders.
Rehn said Greece had taken all the reform steps required to receive its next 31 billion euro tranche of loans and finance ministers should be able to sign off on a deal next week.
"I trust everyone will reconvene in Brussels on Monday with the necessary constructive spirit, and move beyond the detrimental mindset of red lines,» he told parliament.
"Frankly, I see no reason why we should not be able to conclude the package - and do away with the uncertainty that has been holding back a return of confidence, and thus of investment and growth, in Greece."
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/11/2012_471190
Rehn sees definitive deal on Greek aid on Monday
“I trust everyone will reconvene in Brussels on Monday with the necessary constructive spirit, and move beyond the detrimental mindset of red lines,” Olli Rehn told the European Parliament. “Frankly, I see no reason why we should not be able to conclude the package - and do away with the uncertainty that has been holding back a return of confidence, and thus of investment and growth, in Greece.” Finance ministers have met twice in the past two weeks but failed both times to agree on the next steps for Greece and how to bring its debt level down to a sustainable level, despite more than 24 hours of negotiation. Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, asked if he was worried about the non-payment of the aid tranche so far, told reporters in Brussels: “No, I don't have any worries but every day that goes by without a decision will burden the economy, its psychology, its markets and citizens and Greeks' pride.” “I'll not let the Greek people's sacrifices go to waste, you can be sure of that,” said Samaras, who was in Brussels for a summit of EU leaders. [Reuters]
and....
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http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/11/2012_471195
Foreign officials eye Greece deal on Monday
“It is fundamental that this country, which has made so many efforts, have the solidarity of its European partners, while respecting the public finances of our states,” he said.
Moscovici's statements echoed earlier comments by Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for economic affairs, who told the European Parliament that Greece has taken all the steps necessary to secure its next tranche of aid and eurozone finance ministers should be able to sign off definitively on the assistance on Monday
“I trust everyone will reconvene in Brussels on Monday with the necessary constructive spirit, and move beyond the detrimental mindset of red lines,” Rehn said.
“Frankly, I see no reason why we should not be able to conclude the package - and do away with the uncertainty that has been holding back a return of confidence, and thus of investment and growth, in Greece,” he added.
Finance ministers have met twice in the past two weeks but failed both times to agree on the next steps for Greece and how to bring its debt level down to a sustainable level, despite more than 24 hours of negotiation.
Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, asked if he was worried about the non-payment of the aid tranche so far, on Thursday told reporters in Brussels:
“No, I don't have any worries but every day that goes by without a decision will burden the economy, its psychology, its markets and citizens and Greeks' pride.”
“I will not let the Greek people's sacrifices go to waste, you can be sure of that,” said Samaras, who was in Brussels for an EU budget summit.
Greece's issues were expected to be discussed on the sidelines of the summit. Meanwhile, Greek municipal workers occupied hundreds of town halls across the country for a fifth day on Thursday to protest against public sector layoffs demanded by the troika of foreign lenders. Greece has promised to revamp its bloated public sector by putting as many as 27,000 workers into a layoff scheme. City and local workers are expected to be among the first to be laid off under the plan. Their protests have intensified since the Greek government passed a package of austerity measures earlier this month, with workers this week staging daily sit-ins at more than two thirds of the country's 330 city halls and several ministries. The sit-ins and work stoppages have disrupted public services and left garbage piling up in some districts of Athens. About 3,000 municipal workers marched in central Athens on Thursday chanting “Their measures - our funeral” and holding black balloons. They carried a coffin and three wreaths in a symbolic protest against what they called the “the elimination of the public sector.” [Combined reports]
Meanwhile , back at the ranch , the very unhappy greek debt slaves are getting restless , angry , losing all hope.....
Protesting Greek municipal workers occupy town halls
Greece has promised the lenders it will revamp its bloated public sector by putting as many as 27,000 workers into a layoff scheme. City and local workers are expected to be among the first to be laid off under the plan. Their protests have intensified since the Greek government passed a package of austerity measures earlier this month, with workers this week staging daily sit-ins at more than two thirds of the country's 330 city halls and several ministries. The sit-ins and work stoppages have disrupted public services and left garbage piling up in some districts of Athens. About 3,000 municipal workers marched in central Athens on Thursday chanting “Their measures - our funeral” and holding black balloons. They carried a coffin and three wreaths in a symbolic protest against what they called the “the elimination of the public sector.” “They think of us as numbers and not as people. I am afraid I won't be able to support my family and give my five-year-old child all I should as a mother,” Maria Kavadia, who has been working for the Athens municipality for 12 years, told state TV. More than 40,000 clerks, nursery school teachers, gardeners, garbage collectors, policemen and grave diggers are employed in municipalities across the country. Anger has been rising among Greeks over repeated rounds of austerity measures including wage and pension cuts demanded by lenders as the price for aid to avert bankruptcy. The European commissioner for economic affairs, Olli Rehn, said on Thursday Greece had taken all the steps necessary to secure its next tranche of aid and euro zone finance ministers should be able to sign off definitively on the assistance on Monday.
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Pensioners brace for more cuts
The draft law has only spared those receiving a benefit due to a serious disability. The plan is for pensions up to 1,500 euros to be slashed by 5 percent, those between 1,500 and 2,000 euros by 10 percent, etc, while pensions in excess of 3,000 euros will see 20 percent slashed, although they will not go under 2,550 euros. The reductions concern pensions paid for any reason (old age, disability or widowhood) and from any source. The cut is calculated on the sum of the main and the auxiliary pension, should that exceed 1,000 euros per month. |
and.....
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/22/eurozone-crisis-live-leaders-meet-eu-budget-summit
There's talk that British PM David Cameron will veer even further away from Europe and call an in/out referendum in 2014.
A recent opinion poll showed that 56% percent of Britons would either definitely, or most likely, vote to leave the EU in a referendum. Only 30% said they wanted the UK to remain a member. The desire to leave cut across all the three main political parties.
Eurozone morale hits three-and-a-half year low
There are some miserable consumer confidence figures out of the eurozone, where morale has apparently hit a three-and-a-half year low.
European Commission figures show confidence dropped again in November to a 42-month low. Confidence had previously edged up in October after falling continuously over the four-month period between June and September.
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight said:
The renewed drop in confidence reinforces suspicion that Eurozone consumers will be extremely careful in their spending in the fourth quarter, thereby contributing to a likely further fall in GDP. Indeed, with consumer confidence sinking to a 42-month low in November and the purchasing managers’ surveys pointing to ongoing appreciable overall contraction in services and manufacturing activity and new orders, the Eurozone seems headed for deeper GDP contraction in the fourth quarter than the 0.1% quarter-on-quarter drop that occurred in the third quarter.
Monti speaks out against EU budget
Mario Monti is being particularly vociferous in his opposition. The Italian PM says he will not accept any compromise on the budget.
He says Italy is disproportionately penalised in the EU budget adn that it will refuse any "unacceptable outcomes".
Monti also makes the same point as Cameron, that the EU must show constraint when national governments are having to cut back.
Back to the eurozone summit, where Cameron is not, in fact alone in his bid to veto the budget. Think tank Open Europe has developed an entire football squad of naysayers, with Cameron as centre forward in prime position to strike. They write:
CF:David Cameron leads the line, ready to strike and seen as the most likely to pull the trigger on any veto.RW: Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt at right winger hugging the line (sticking to his guns), happy to put in a shift for the team and more likely to offer an assist/support for Cameron than to deliver the final blow himself.AM: French President François Hollande is the mercurial trickster playing between the lines but not quite sure of his role or his aims. Ultimately a selfish player (as are many of the others) but who’s own personal gain could ultimately be detrimental to the rest of the team.DM: Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is playing the stoic holding role, refusing to budge and occasionally gesticulating wildly at the referee, although never actually getting into the danger zone at the forefront of the action. More likely to break up play and provide a stumbling block than deliver a knockout blow to the opposition. Unlike the rest of the team, not here on merit (elected) but parachuted in by the powers above.
Schäuble: no haircut for Greece
The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, is at it again, by which we mean declaring his opposition to a writedown of public holdings of Greek debt. He said today:
The moment we decide to give Greece a haircut, we cannot give Greece any new guarantees - that is logical because the budget law rightly says you can only take on guarantees if you believe that the debt will be paid back so you can't do both.
He said as much last week, and at the end of October, so top marks for consistency - both to Schäuble and the hacks who keep asking him the same question.
Easy auction for Spain
Bit of Spanish debt anyone? Investors seem to think it's worth a punt.
Spain sold nearly €4bn of bonds with ease at an auction this morning as it kicked off what will be a rather daunting funding programme for 2013.
The Treasury beat the top end of the target of €2.5-3.5bn at borrowing costs that were slightly down from previous auctions - although they are still high.
The average yield on the 2021 bond was 5.517%, compared with around 5.6% for the benchmark 10-year on the secondary market, a long way from over 7% levels in July.
Nicholas Spiro, managing director of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, has three points to make on it all:
1. The surreal air of calm surrounding Spain's bond market shows no signs of dissipating. Quite the opposite. The Treasury has met its financing needs for this year and is already pre-funding its 2013 requirements. The fairly modest size of today's auction, and the enduring signalling effect of the ECB's bond-buying programme, made for a relatively successful sale - and one of longer-term paper at that. Demand held up and yields for the 3 and 5-year notes were just a tad below secondary market levels. For the time being, Spain is accessing the market with relative ease.
2. Right now, the million dollar question is: how long will the ECB's signalling effect alone suffice to suppress Spanish yields? It's tempting to take the view that the market is becoming less sensitive to a Spanish request for an ECB-backed bond-buying programme. Madrid would like to think this is the case but it's very unlikely, given the scale and severity of Spain's financial and economic plight, that investors no longer believe Spain requires external aid. The reality is that the current standoff over a sovereign bailout for Spain suits all three sides - Madrid, investors and the ECB - to varying degrees.3. This is the longest period of relative calm enjoyed by Spanish and Italian debt markets since the eurozone crisis escalated dramatically in November 2011. Indeed, the yield on 10-year Spanish paper now stands at the top end of the band in which it was trading early last year when Spain was said to have "decoupled" from its more distressed eurozone peers. But while the ECB is holding the fort, eurozone leaders keep dragging their feet in putting in place the political, regulatory and institutional measures needed to shore up the ill-managed single currency area.
Eurozone wrangle
The periphery is getting more peripheral, it seems.
Here's ING's Martin van Vliet with his reaction to the euro zone PMI data:
The weak Eurozone PMI outturn for November is a major disappointment in light of the increases in the German and French PMI surveys, and suggest that that the recession on the Eurozone’s periphery is gathering further pace. The lack of change in the headline composite index (45.8 versus 45.7 in October) reflected diverging movements across the main components. In a clear sign that fiscal tightening continues to take a heavy toll on domestic demand, the services PMI fell from 46.0 to a 40-month low of 45.7. The manufacturing PMI, by contrast, improved, but at 46.2 it remains in deep contraction territory.Looking at the available country data, the French composite output index rose for a second month from 43.5 to 44.6, while the German equivalent also edged higher from 47.7 to 47.9. A flash estimate for the other Eurozone countries is not available, but the average for this group sank further into contraction territory – which arguably is the most disturbing aspect of today’s report.All in all, today’s PMI figures confirm that the eurozone economy remains firmly stuck in recession. Looking ahead, we still think that ECB’s recent actions and the improvement in the global economy (as signaled by the further pickup in the Chinese PMI) will provide some respite to the Eurozone economy. But with the fiscal squeeze across the region continuing, any return to positive growth next year will likely be slow and gradual – and largely confined to the ‘core’ countries.
Eurozone as bad as 2009
Another half hour, another set of PMIs.
It seems that the eurozone economy is on course for its weakest quarter since early 2009, as business surveys showed companies battling shrinking order books in November. Reuters reports:
Service sector firms like banks and hotels that comprise the bulk of the economy fared particularly badly this month, and laid off staff at a faster pace.While the monthly rate of decline that manufacturers reported eased far more than economists anticipated, Markit's latest Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) pointed to little change overall for a recession-hit euro zone this month.The flash service sector PMI fell to 45.7 this month, its lowest reading since July 2009, the survey showed on Thursday, failing to meet the expectations of economists who thought it would hold at October's 46.0.
While we are being promised a solution to Greece very soon (honestly), there is an intriguing report in the FT about how Argentina is being made to pay $1.3bn to hedge funds that refused to restructure their debts after the country’s 2001 default.
The US court ruling, made late on Wednesday in New York, apparently raises the possibility of Argentina defaulting again, but more significantly it seems to undermine the concept of sovereign immunity against creditors that has "largely reigned in international law for almost a century".
By the way, if you'll forgive the rather strained link, for anyone wanting to read an accessible guide to the euro crisis, there are many worse than this - with thanks to Pedro Barrento.
German services confidence at 44-month low
Mixed news from Germany. On one hand its November manufacturing PMI has come in at 46.8, compared to the consensus estimate of 46.0. But on the other, services PMI came in at 48.0, less than estimates of only 48.4. Markit Economics, which releases the figures, has some historical context:
France: not as bad as thought
Some good news, of sorts. France has provided a less miserable start to the day than feared.
Its manufacturing PMI rose more than expected last month, the preliminary data shows, to a seasonally adjusted 44.7, from 43.7.
Obviously that still represents a contraction, but analysts had expected the measure to rise to only 44.1. Still, some depressing caveats remain.
FTSE hits one-week highs on Chinese PMIs
London markets have opened and we are up – at least partly on the back of a return to growth of in Chinese manufacturing, which boosted demand prospects for the produce of FTSE metals and energy companies.
The Chinese HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in November –more than 50 separates growth from contraction. This is the sector's first period of growth in 13 months.