Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Gold and Silver - news and views ...... Casey Gold & Silver Report for Tuesday trading data

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/russia-todays-capital-accountcftcs-chilton-repeats-belief-silver-market-manipulation


On Russia Today's 'Capital Account'...CFTC's Chilton Repeats Belief in Silver Market Manipulation

Nov
14





and....




http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/11/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_13.html


13 NOVEMBER 2012


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Eric Sprott on Gold - JPM Backstops NJ Debt Offering


Gold and silver moved sideways today, as stocks remained weak and treasuries gained.

Trading remained quiet. There is an intraday post on the sort of commentary about gold that was 'popular' in 1999.

In the monetization of official debt department, JPM Agrees to Fully Backstop NJ $2.6 Billion Debt Offering. Just in case you were wondering who the 'house bank' is and why they keep it around.

All the Fed and Treasury need are a few cooperative intermediaries in the private sector willing to take the vig, and they can run the money machine day and night through the wonderful price discovery mechanism of market 'auctions.'

I wonder if they will have an open bar and jumbo shrimp at this prix fixe bond event? Maybe a nice ice sculpture of the queen of the silver market?

Have a pleasant evening.

















http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-13/guest-post-gold-dollar-are-less-correlated-everyone-thinks


Guest Post: Gold & The Dollar Are Less Correlated Than Everyone Thinks

Tyler Durden's picture




Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via Peak Prosperity,
Whenever I make the case for a stronger U.S. dollar (USD), the feedback can be sorted into three basic reasons why the dollar will continue declining in value:
  1. The USD may gain relative to other currencies, but since all fiat currencies are declining against gold, it doesn’t mean that the USD is actually gaining value; in fact, all paper money is losing value.
    1. When the global financial system finally crashes, won’t that include the dollar?
    2. The Federal Reserve is “printing” (creating) money, and that will continue eroding the purchasing power of the USD. Lowering interest rates to zero has dropped the yield paid on Treasury bonds, which also weakens the dollar.
    The general notion here is that, given the root causes of our economic distemper – rampant financialization, over-leverage and over-indebtedness, a politically dominant parasitic banking sector, an aging population, overpromised entitlements, a financial business model based on fraud, Federal Reserve monetizing of debt, and a dysfunctional political system, to mention only the top of the list – how can the USD appreciate in real terms?
    All of these objections are well-grounded.Let’s look at some charts to discern what factors are “pricing” the dollar, domestically and internationally.
    Before we start, though, let’s spend a few moments thinking through what a declining dollar means in the real world. Since the USD is the world’s reserve currency, we have to ask the question in two contexts: the domestic economy and the global economy.  The Triffin Paradoxexplains why the domestic monetary policy of the nation that issues the reserve currency will conflict with the needs of the international community using the currency for reserves.

    Let’s say that thanks to a depreciating dollar (what many call “inflation”), gasoline that once cost 40 cents a gallon now costs $4 a gallon.  Back when gasoline cost 40 cents a gallon, the average wage was $1.60, so an hour of labor could buy four gallons of gasoline.

    This ten-fold rise in the cost of fuel would certainly be catastrophic if earnings didn’t rise as well.  But if earnings rose to $16 per hour, then an hour’s labor would still buy four gallons of gasoline.  If gasoline rose to $4,000 a gallon, if earnings per hour also climbed to $16,000 per hour, then the purchasing power of an hour’s labor would remain constant.

    If wages rose such that an hour’s labor bought five gallons of gasoline, the wage earner’s purchasing power has actually increased despite the apparent 90% drop in the value of the currency.
    This suggests that a depreciating currency is not a domestic catastrophe unless earnings (and assets) do not rise in lockstep with the price of goods and services.

    In terms of the international community, a depreciating dollar means oil exporters paid with dollars (so-called "petro-dollars") will have to raise the price of oil to offset the depreciation, and this could wreak havoc on other nations importing oil.  In other words, the U.S. “exports inflation” by depreciating its currency, which is precisely what happened in China: Inflation leaped in China while it remained placid in the U.S. (at least by official calculations).

    No wonder understanding the dollar’s value is so complex; it plays a duel role as the reserve currency and the U.S. currency, and it is influenced by a large number of domestic and international forces.

    Charting the Dollar and the Metrics That Influence Its Value

    Let’s start with two charts showing the dollar’s massive decline in domestic value over the past century and half-century.

    From the long view, the USD had already lost 30% even before the Federal Reserve was founded. The much-discussed end of the gold standard (when the USD was no longer backed by gold) in 1971 had little effect.


    Here is the dollar from 1947 to 2008.  In 1970, it was worth $0.60, and it has since slumped to $0.10 in constant 1947 dollars.  This is confirmed by the BLS inflation calculator, which equates $1 in 1970 with $6 in 2012 dollars.
    That is a nasty decline in 42 years, to be sure.  Now let’s look at gross domestic product, earnings, and the size of the population and workforce.

    According to the Census Bureau, the population of the U.S. was 203 million in 1970, and it is now 307 million, a roughly 50% increase.

    The number of workers has risen 75%, from 80 million in 1970 to 140 million today.

    If productivity remained constant, we might expect that gross domestic product would rise by 75% due to a larger workforce and the six-fold increase due to depreciation of the dollar. Since GDP was $1.038 trillion in 1970, we could expect $1T X 1.75 = $1.75T X 6 = $10.5 trillion. Actual GDP is over $15 trillion, a 50% increase over the adjusted-for-workforce-inflation result.


    Here is the adjusted (real) GDP:

    Adjusted for inflation/dollar depreciation, the GDP has tripled since 1970. Even if we discount half of this as official under-reporting of inflation, that is still a significant increase.

    Next, let’s look at the critical metric of employee compensation. Did earnings rise along with prices?


    It appears that earnings rose almost fourteen-fold while costs rose six-fold.  Thus “real” earnings increased despite the depreciating dollar.  Here is a chart of real household income, courtesy of DShort.com.

    Here we see income disparity at work.  Lower-income workers saw their real (adjusted) earnings rise by about 20%, middle-class employees registered gains of around 40%, while the top 20% realized gains of about 70%. The top 5% has seen real income almost double.

    Note that the income in all brackets has declined or stagnated since 2000.

    Now let’s look at some other basic measures of economic activity: corporate earnings and government spending.
    Corporate profits have zoomed over thirty-fold since 1970, while Federal spending has increased about eighteen-fold.
    Federal tax receipts have increased about twelve-fold.


    What does all this mean? It appears that a steadily depreciating dollar did not harm the nation’s output, earnings, corporate profits or government spending.  Though rising income disparity is troubling, it cannot be traced to the depreciating dollar.

    Next, let’s look at the three factors most often mentioned as setting the value of the dollar internationally: interest rates, the monetary base, and gold.

    Interest rates, measured here by the yield on the ten-year Treasury, topped at 16% in 1982.


    If interest rates drive the value of currencies, we would expect to see the dollar rise and decline along with interest rates. Here is the trade-weighted dollar, valued against a basket of our trading partners’ currencies.


    The correlation is not perfect, as the USD peaked in 1985, triggering the Plaza Accord, a concerted campaign by central banks to depreciate the dollar against rival currencies. Nonetheless, the USD has trended lower as interest rates fell.
    Here is the monetary base of the dollar, which skyrocketed as the Fed ramped up the base in response to the global financial crisis of 2008-09.  If this was a dominant force on the dollar, we would expect to see a corresponding decline in the trade-weighted dollar and a leap in the USD price of gold.



    The trade-weighted dollar is about where it was before the three-fold expansion of the monetary base.  Gold did skyrocket, roughly doubling from its 2008 price range to about $1,750 per ounce today.


    But if the price of gold were correlated to the trade-weighted dollar, we would expect to see a rise in gold as the dollar fell from its 1985 peak.  It did not, but it did rise as the USD declined from its 2002 peak. In other words, the correlation of gold to the trade-weighted USD is very inconsistent; the USD has remained in a small range since 2008 while gold doubled.

    Gold and the USD have actually risen together in some timeframes.

    If we step back, what do we notice about the charts of GDP, employee compensation, corporate profits, government expenditures, and gold?  Roughly speaking, all have increased ten-fold or more from 1975. From this point of view, gold has simply “caught up” with earnings, GDP, profits, government spending, etc.
    While the dollar’s value against other currencies has declined as bond yields dropped, from the long view its 2009 value places it back in a range going back two decades to the early 1990s.

    Though the monetary base roughly doubled from 1990 to 2005, gold in 2005 was still around $400 per ounce, same as its price back in 1990.

    In other words, the price of gold is not consistently correlated to the monetary base, the trade-weighted dollar, or interest rates. Gold appears to march to an independent drummer.

    A Distinct Lack of Consistent Correlations

    Where does this comparison of charts leave us? With a distinct lack of consistent correlations.
    [ZH: though we note in the very recent past that correlation 'mathematically' has risen consistently]

    It would seem that the commonly touted drivers of the dollar’s value, measured in either trade-weighted USD or in gold, are inconsistent; none of them correlate consistently over time.

    The three metrics of interest rates, gold, and the trade-weighted dollar appear to have minimal impact on productivity, profits, output, earnings, or the domestic standard of living, as these three have jumped around with no visible impact on broad measures such as GDP or earnings.

    We have seen interest rates leap to 16% and fall to near-zero; gold collapse, stagnate, and then quadruple; and the dollar gain and lose 30% of its trade-weighted value in a few years. None of these huge swings had any correlation to broad measures of domestic activity such as GDP.
    Clearly, interest rates occasionally (but not always) affect the value of the trade-weighted dollar, and the monetary base occasionally (but not always) affects the price of gold, but these appear to have little correlation to productivity, earnings, etc., or to each other.














http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sprott-western-central-banks-have-no-more-gold-only-gold-receivables/#more-17192


ERIC SPROTT: WESTERN CENTRAL BANKS HAVE NO MORE GOLD…ONLY GOLD RECEIVABLES!

Bloomberg has released a MUST WATCH interview with our good friend Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management discussing his thoughts on gold.  While unable to specifically discuss silver due to the current PSLV follow-on, Sprott simply destroyed the MSM pundits’ anti-gold arguments, stating that gold has beat the Dickens out of every other asset class over the last 12 years, andquestioned whether the Western Central Banks have any physical gold left in the vaults, as the gold listed on their balance sheets includes gold receivables, which has been leased out and is gone for good.
The legendary Eric Sprott’s full MUST WATCH interview below:
Bloomberg kicked the interview off by asking Sprott whether he is as much a fan of precious metals today as he once was, ”given the fact that they’ve treated you so poorly over the past 18 months?”  Sprott replied:

A little history is probably important here.  Gold has gone from $250 to over $1700.  It’s beat the Dickens out of every other asset class over the last 12 years…To specifically answer your question, am I more optimistic today than I might otherwise be?  Absolutely.   I wrote an article recently questioning whether the Western Central Banks had any gold left.  We simply did a physical analysis of the people that are coming into the gold market and the changes that have happened since 2000, (and the supply of gold has not changed since 2000 on an annual basis, it’s still 4,000 tons).   When you look at the fact that the central banks used to sell 400 tons annually, now they buy 500 tons.  The ETF didn’t even exist in 2000, now they buy 300 tons a year. 

The Bloomberg host then interrupted Sprott to claim that this sounds like a conspiracy theory and asked for another reason to buy gold.  Sprott responded:

I could probably give you 20 reasons.  How about money printing?  QE1, QE2, QE3, LTRO, OMT’s, people are essentially debasing their currencies.  They’re not holding them in the esteem that they should, and it’s reflected in the fact that the price of gold’s gone up.  One of the issues we have with gold is the fact that it hasn’t performed well in the last 18 months…But People are flocking to gold.  When I look at the US Mint statistics for gold sales.  When I look at what the Chinese are doing in terms of imports of gold from Hong Kong into the mainland, they’re up 500 tons in the last 12 months in a 4,000 ton market!!  Imagine if the Chinese bought an extra 12% of the oil or wheat market this year!  Would they get it?  And who’s supplying the 500 tons?  We already had a market that was in balance!


Gold production is flat, and one might even argue that the gold miners may have trouble increasing production this year.  You’ve seen the disappointments of Barrick and Newmont, and many others are having issues.

The Bloomberg host then asked Sprott why the gold price hasn’t responded to those supply and demand factors.  Sprott responded:

Well, there’s two markets for gold.  There’s the paper market, the COMEX futures.  You can have the annual gold production trade in two days on the paper market.  I focus on the physical market.  I want to see what people are doing with their money physically.  Are they continuing to buy more and more gold, year after year?  Every indication we have is that they continue to buy INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GOLD.  Sooner or later, (and ask Eric asked, how do the central banks sell gold without telling anybody?), they have a very simple way: Central banks have one line on their balance sheets for gold and gold receivables!  If they lease gold to a bullion dealer, that’s a receivable.  That gold has obviously been sold into the market, but we can’t tell what’s real gold and what’s receivable (on the central bank balance sheets).


TURKISH PM: ”THE WORLD SHOULD CONSIDER SWITCHING FROM THE DOLLAR TO GOLD”




AA Photo
Speaking at the Bali Democracy international summit over the weekend, Turkish PM Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan blasted the IMF’s role in the global debt crisis, stating that  “It is thought-provoking that the IMF is not using gold as a global currency’‘ and that “One would wish that the IMF would help the countries in trouble, but this is not the case.
Not content to stop there, ErdoÄŸan likely placed a target on his/Turkey’s back when he stated that the world should flee the petro-dollar for gold:The world should consider switching to a monetary unit such as gold, which is at the very least an international constant and indicator which has maintained its honor throughout history. This is something to think about.From Mediolana:

Love him or hate him, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan is rarely anything other than eminently quotable. But from time to time he expresses an idea which strikes a chord with many people outside his natural constituency, and during a recent riff during the Fifth Bali Democracy Forum – an annual event that has been held since 2008 and which focuses principally on democratic developments within Asia – he did so again in a series of remarks directed to the International Monetary Fund (‘IMF’), where he openly questioned the value of cross-border transactions being denominated in a currency belonging to any single nation (or, by implication, a group of nations). According to ErdoÄŸan, the world should consider switching ‘to a monetary unit such as gold, which is at the very least an international constant and indicator which has maintained its honor throughout history. This is something to think about.’
A few years ago, such comments would have seemed implausible, but it is now easy to imagine many economic sages agreeing with the leader of the Justice and Development Party, a political entity that has ruled Turkey since 2002

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bankster fraud/theft/crime against the 99%.



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