Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Eurogroup fails ( as expected ) to reach deal on Greek deal ( prior to the Regional election in Catalonia on November 25th ) after lengthy bull shit session. Next bull shit session set for the day after the Spanish Regional Election or November 26th.....


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/garbage-piles-up-in-spain-as-unpaid.html


Wednesday, November 21, 2012 7:39 PM


Garbage Piles Up in Spain as Unpaid Municipal Bills Mount; Green Shoot of the Day: Cement Consumption Falls 34%


As Spain attempts austerity by cutting back payments to regions, those regions run out of funds to pay bills.

For an interesting case-in-point, please consider (via Google translate from El EconomistaMunicipalities Owed €2,000 Million, Companies Refuse Collection and Cleaning
 Defaults on local councils put back on the ropes to urban sanitation companies. No respite worth. If the final plan provider payment partially interrupted the problem, the situation again becomes serious. "Since the beginning of the year delinquencies has skyrocketed. In just eight months to August, the accumulated debt of the sessions with cleaning companies was around 1,680 million.

This rise is worrisome for a sector in Spain employs over 120,000 people, "said the president of Aselip (Association of Public Cleaning), Francisco Jardón.
The result is that today the municipalities pending bills with these companies together account for nearly 2,000 million euros.  As also in the pharmaceutical sector, the debt problem is that, far from disappearing, is regenerated by now.

"When the government launched the provider payment plan in April the problem was corrected by 90 percent. Then consistories debt with sanitation companies was nearly 3,000 million euros and around 300 million were left payable "adds Jardón. Why? "For the Royal Decree which implemented that plan did not, do not know why, consortia or associations, which also have hired urban sanitation".

Strike in Jerez

Urbaser stars in these days one of the main problems related to the debts. The ERE submitted by the company, which includes 125 layoffs and pay cuts, has meant that employees call for a strike in garbage collection that has lasted 19 days.

According to the City, more than 3,000 tons of garbage piled in the streets of the city of Cadiz, which last night had its second day of riots and burning container. Sources Provincial Fire Consortium reported traffic costs due to the garbage thrown by neighbors to the street as a barricade, and clashes with the police and firefighters who came to put out the flames.
That is quite a choppy translation but I believe you get the gist.

Green Shoot of the Day

While reflecting on garbage, also consider via Google translate The green shoot of the day. Cement consumption falls by 34% through October.
 Cement consumption fell by 33.8% in the first ten months of the year, reaching 11.74 million tons, thus scoring one of the biggest percentage declines since the beginning of the crisis.

The association warns that if this fall in consumption is not stopped "using government" not ruled out further adjustments in business capacity of a sector that has already lost one third (33%) of their jobs since the onset of the crisis.

The Spanish cement industry currently employs 5,158 workers in Spain, compared to 7730 it had in 2007, pre-crisis period.

With these settings, the industry is adapting its production volumes to the current demand for cement, affected by the housing slowdown builder and civil works. According to his data, registered until October consumption accounts for less than 40% of the sector's production capacity.
Thus, in the first ten months of the year were made in Spain 13.84 million tons of cement, resulting in a decrease of 28.6%.

Regarding last October, production fell by 33% compared to the same month in 2011, after consumption fell by 24.7% to 1.14 million tonnes.
No Good Economic Outcome Possible

There is no possible economic outcome that Europe will be happy with. There is a roughly a 10 percent chance the eurozone does not break up.

Moreover, should the eurozone not break apart, it will mean prolonged economic depression for Spain, Greece, and Portugal, and that depression in turn will hammer Germany and France.

Can-kicking exercises hoping to hold the eurozone intact are a huge part of the problem.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock




and...



Fitch downgrades Cyprus to BB-

Elsewhere in the struggling eurozone, Fitch has just downgraded Cyprus, another country struggling with the prospect of a bailout.
The ratings agency has cut Cyprus from BB+ to BB-, pushing it further into junk territory, with the long term outlook remaining negative. Fitch cited a "materially weaker macroeconomic outlook for Cyprus."
The country is currently trying to negotiate a bailout with the troika, and has even apparently been sounding out Russia for help.













http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-21/latest-greek-bailout-nutshell-aaa-rated-euro-countries-fund-massive-hedge-fund-profi


The Latest Greek "Bailout" In A Nutshell: AAA-Rated Euro Countries To Fund Massive Hedge Fund Profits

Tyler Durden's picture




With constantly changing variables in what will be the fourth and not final Greek bailout, it has been relatively difficult to pinpoint just what the "fulcrum security" is in the ongoing restructuring that is not really a cramdown bankruptcy but kinda, sorta is, and more importantly where the money will come from. A big issue that Europe has discovered with a two and a half year delay (pointed out here first, but anyone with capacity for rational thought could have grasped it at the time), is that Greece has hit the inflection point where without more, and substantial, debt forgiveness it is unviable entity, and will certainly not hike the Troika's hard line target of 120% debt/GDP by 2020. In other words, Greece can no longer layer more debt to pay down debt.



The problem is that both Germany and the ECB have decreed they will not agree to Official Sector impairments (recall the private sector was already crammed down with original Greek debt collapsing into New GGBs at about 20 cents on the dollar, which in turn then proceed to trade immediately down to 20 cents of Fresh Start par, implying there is absolutely no value in this most subordinate debt), and as Germany made clear last night, it refuses to permit a largely meaningless cut in interest rates of Greek bilateral loans from 150 bps to a token 25 bps, an adjustment it classified as "illegal."
So what is the latest state of play that has the biggest support from all parties?
It appears that the plan which is now back in play, is one which Greece had previously nixed, namely a partial Greek bond buyback of the private bonds at a discount to par: with numbers currently rumored anywhere between 25 cents and 50 cents on the euro.

On the surface this appears a reasonable deal, however there is a reason why Greece killed this proposal one month ago. As Kathimerini reported back then:
The Finance Ministry is ditching banks’ plan for a bond swap that would have eased their recapitalization requirements.

According to sources, Minister Yannis Stournaras has rejected the proposal that local banks presented to him, suggesting that this would be a move that would benefit bank shareholders disproportionately. Ministry sources added that such a move would generate accusations about favorable treatment of banks in comparison with other holders of Greek bonds.


That is also the view by the troika – i.e. the representatives of Greece’s creditors – who had earlier rejected a similar plan.
This is correct: because the only beneficiaries would be those financial players who either bought the bonds in the open market, or held on to the original "pre-petition" bonds.
But even if Greece agrees with this proposal, there is a question of where Greece will get the money for this distressed debt buyback? After all Greece is completely broke, and any new cash would have to be in the form of loans, as not even the most nebulous interpretation of the Maastricht treaty would allow an equity investment, or to use the proper nomenclature, "a fiscal investment" into Greece.
Moments ago, the FT gave us the answer:
An alternative proposal involves offering €10bn of extra loans to Athens from the European Financial Stability Fund, the eurozone’s temporary bailout pot. The option is seen as a leading contender for a compromise deal.

This extra lending would support a more ambitious scheme to purchase Greek bonds held by private investors, part of a package of debt relief measures to bring down Athen’s debt to significantly below 120 per cent of economic output by 2022.

Sanctioning a new €10bn of bailout loans would pose a considerable political challenge to several countries and require the backing of restless parliaments in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands.
In other words, the money is now supposed to come from the EFSF, funded realistically by Europe's AAA governments, all of which have said not one more penny will go to Greece. However, the EFSF already has prefunded and committed capital so it is a convenient loophole.
The problem will arise when the parliaments of said AAA countries are asked to explain to their people why they all have to pay billions in order to repay between €20 and €40 billion (assuming a 50 or 25 cent repurchase price) of Greek debt, just so Greece has a theoretical chance of hitting 120% debt/GDP by 2020, a number which has virtually no chance of being hit when one accounts for the the denominator: the collapsing Greek GDP which last quarter tumbled at a 7% rate.
But the kicker is when one traces the use of funds. Because what is will happening is a payment not to Greece, obviously, but to its creditors: entities which for the most part are hedge funds, and which have bought up GGB2s in the mid teen levels as recently as 4 months ago (recall Dan Loeb's major position in Greek bonds).
So to simplify the flow of funds:
  • Source of Funds: EFSF, using European cash primarily originating at places such as Germany, Finland and Netherlands
  • Use of Funds: Hedge funds holders, with a cost basis in the 10-20 cent range.
  • Summary: European governments, already struggling with day to day cash procurement and finding new and inventive ways of keeping the ponzi going day to day, will pay... Hedge Funds and their billionaire PMs.
And what do they get in return:
In part to address the inevitable political concerns, officials are
drawing up options to back the new loans with collateral from Greece’s
privatisation programme, which aims to raise €50bn.
So do not fret dear AAA-rated (if not for long) European countries: the money you will spend to generate between 100% and 400% returns for creditor hedge fund in a few brief months, will not be lost - in exchange you will have "collateral" from the Greek privatization program. Which may or may not work: perhaps if Dan Loeb, Elliott and the other creditors who are about to make a huge profit by flipping Greek bonds will "privatize" Greek real estate, and the funds will go back to the European countries who made the payment to the hedge funds a possibility in the first place.
The only real loser here? The Greek people, who will have just sold off up to €50 billion in national assets (and this is uncertain - there may very well not be any buyers for Greek "assets"). The same Greek people who will get not one penny from any of the convoluted fund flows explained above.
And now you know what the current state of the latest Greek bailout process is.
 






http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/21/eurogroup-greece-document-idUSL5E8ML01A20121121?feedType=RSS&feedName=financialsSector

( Eurozone Countries will have to face up to taking losses ( despite lying to their Parliaments that this would never happen ) AND Greece will have to be given additional financing which we be more then the 33 billion discussed presently for the period up to 2016 AND Private Investors will be forced to take another haircut meaning thier losses will be 96 - 97 percent en toto  or so . which is why we see no deal announced today. )


Greek debt can only become sustainable by 2022 if all steps taken - document


BRUSSELS | Tue Nov 20, 2012 8:37pm EST

Nov 21 (Reuters) - Greek debt can fall to below 120 percent of output by 2020 only if euro zone countries accept losses on their loans to Athens, provide additional financing or force private creditors into selling Greek debt at a discount, according to a document prepared for a meeting of finance ministers on Tuesday.

The 15-page document shows that without a package of debt-reducing measures Greek debt will fall to 144 percent of GDP in 2020, 133 percent in 2022 and 111 percent of GDP in 2030, from a current level of around 170 percent.
"The package of options will not make it possible to arrive at a debt-to-GDP ratio of close to 120 percent in 2020 without taking recourse to measures that would entail capital losses or budgetary implications for euro area member states or envisage a more comprehensive DBB entailing the activation of collective action clauses," the document said.
"It may therefore be considered to postpone the benchmark for debt sustainability to 2022 by when Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio can be expected to fall below 120 percent, through the joint application of the ... measures," it said.

The document said a reduction of interest rates on bilateral loans to Greece by 70 basis points from the current 150 basis points above financing costs would cut debt by 1.4 percent by 2020. A much deeper cut to 25 basis points would result in debt falling by 5.1 percent of GDP by 2020.

Deferring interest payments by 10 years to 2022 on loans made through the euro zone's temporary rescue fund would cut Greek debt by 43.8 billion euros, or 16.9 percent of GDP.

If the European Central Bank (ECB) returned the profits it made on its Greek bond portfolio, Greece's debt would be fall by a further 4.6 percent in 2020, the document showed.
Buying back 10 billion euros worth of Greek bonds from private investors at 50 cents per euro would result in debt falling by 2.4 percent of GDP by 2020.
But the combined elements would still fail to reduce the overall debt-to-GDP ratio to 120 percent by 2020, the level the IMF has deemed as "sustainable". If that target cannot be reached, the IMF may withdraw from the Greek bailout programmes.














http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/11/2012_470908


Eurogroup fails to reach agreement on Greek debt after lengthy talks


After almost 12 hours of talks, stretching into Wednesday morning, eurozone finance ministers were unable to agree with International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde on a formula to reduce Greek debt and agreed to meet again on Monday to try to resolve the issue.
In a statement issued on Wednesday morning, the Eurogroup acknowledged the steps taken by Greece to meet its program targets but said it would have to debate further what action to take next.
“The Eurogroup noted with satisfaction that all prior actions required ahead of this meeting
have been met in a satisfactory manner,” the ministers said in their statement. “This reflects a wide ranging set of reforms, as well as the budget for 2013 and an ambitious medium term fiscal strategy for 2013-16. These efforts demonstrate the authorities' strong commitment to the adjustment program.
“Against this background, the Eurogroup has had an extensive discussion and made progress in identifying a consistent package of credible initiatives aimed at making a further substantial contribution to the sustainability of Greek government debt. The Eurogroup interrupted its meeting to allow for further technical work on some elements of this package. The Eurogroup will reconvene on Monday, 26 November.”
The delay in reaching a conclusion means that Greece is to be kept waiting for news on the disbursal of up to 44 billion euros in bailout instalments, some of which it was hoping to receive at the beginning of next month as the government is running out of cash to cover its basic needs.
Despite reports of the eurozone failing to bridge its differences with the IMF over how to make Greek debt sustainable and rumors of splits among finance minister, Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker insisted there were no irreparable differences.
"We are close to an agreement but technical verifications have to be undertaken, financial calculations have to be made and it's really for technical reasons that at this hour of the day it was not possible to do it in a proper way and so we are interrupting the meeting and reconvening next Monday,» Juncker told reporters.
"There are no major political disagreements,» he said.
A document prepared for the meeting and seen by Reuters declared that Greece's debt cannot be cut to 120 percent of GDP by 2020, the level deemed sustainable by the IMF, unless euro zone member states write off a portion of their loans to Greece.
The 15-page document, circulated among ministers, set out in black-and-white how far off-track Greece is in reducing its debt to the IMF-imposed target, from a level of around 170 percent of GDP now.
The document set out various ways Greece's debt could be reduced between now and 2020, but concluded they would not be enough without euro zone creditors taking a hit on their own holdings -- something Germany and others have said would be illegal.
The document did say Greek debt could fall to 120 percent of GDP two years later -- in 2022 -- without having to impose any losses on euro zone member states or forcing through a buy-back of Greek debt from private-sector bondholders.
Without any corrective measures the document said Greek debt would be 144 percent in 2020 and 133 percent in 2022, figures first reported exclusively by Reuters last week.
"To bring the debt ratio down further, one needs to take recourse to measures that would entail capital losses or budgetary implications for euro area member states,» the document says.
"Capital losses do not appear to be politically feasible and would jeopardize, at least in a number of member states, the political and public support for providing financial assistance."
Among the main measures under consideration to bring Greece's debt burden down as rapidly as possible is a debt buy-back under which Greece would offer to purchase bonds from private investors at a discount to their nominal value.
Several options are under consideration, officials have said and the document makes clear, including using about 10 billion euros to buy back bonds at between 30 and 35 cents in the euro.
There are also proposals to reduce the interest rate on loans already extended by euro zone countries to Greece, to impose a moratorium on interest payments and lengthen the maturities on loans, all of which would cut the debt burden.
[Kathimerini English Edition & Reuters]


and....


Tsipras: Europe faces dead-ends it created


Europe finds itself face to face with the dead-ends it has created through its policies, Greek opposition leader and SYRIZA chief Alexis Tsiras said on Wednesday.
Speaking from the radical-left coalition’s headquarters in central Athens, Tsipras accused Prime Minister Antonis Samaras of not using his negotiating power he’s given by the disagreement between the country’s partners and creditors.
Tsipras’s comments came in the aftermath of a lengthy meeting between eurozone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund, which ended early Wednesday, during which Greece’s partners and creditors failed to reach an agreement regarding the country’s debt sustainability and the release of a fresh tranche of bailout aid.
“Disbursement of the next loan will not secure the sustainability of Greek debt,” said Tsipras, who added that the Eurogroup had even considered a repayment freeze.
In his statements, Tsipras asked what the Greek government’s position regarding the country’s debt sustainability was. He also added that the Prime Minister had lost “the last ounce of respectability” by claiming that Greece would run out of money by November 16.
“Samaras has become a pre-election tool for Merkel, who does not want to admit that she has made serious mistakes,” he added.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday November 21, 2012 (13:37)  

and......

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/11/2012_470953


Merkel says lower rates, EFSF boost can fill Greek gap


German Chancellor Angela Merkel told lawmakers at a closed-door meeting on Wednesday that lower interest rates and an expanded European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) could fill Greece's financing gap, a source at the session told Reuters.
Merkel addressed the lawmakers after European finance ministers, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed for the second week running to reach a deal to free up new aid for Greece. They are to meet again on Monday.
Merkel told the meeting that EFSF guarantees could be raised by 10 billion euros and that Germany would take its share in that, said the participant in the meeting.
Different eurozone states could help Greece in different ways, she said, according to the source.





and.....


Merkel sees chance for Greek deal on Monday


German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday she sees a chance for a deal to release emergency aid for Greece at a meeting of European finance ministers on Monday, but rejected the idea that big bold actions could solve Europe's crisis overnight.
"I believe there are chances, one doesn't know for sure, but there are chances to get a solution on Monday,» Merkel told the Bundestag lower house of parliament in a debate on the German budget.
"But the longing for one act, one miracle solution, one truth that means all our problems are gone tomorrow ... this will not be fulfilled. What was neglected over years, over decades, cannot be taken care of overnight and therefore we will need to continue to move step by step."
European finance ministers, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed for the second week running to reach a deal to free up new aid for Greece. They are to meet again on Monday.
Merkel added that EU leaders may be forced to meet again early next year to secure agreement on the 27-member bloc's long-term budget. They are due to hold a summit on the budget on Thursday and Friday of this week.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday November 21, 2012 (13:54)  


and......

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-21/another-hope-driven-levitation-offsets-reality-greek-indecision-snafu


Another Hope-Driven Levitation Offsets Reality Of Greek Indecision Snafu



Tyler Durden's picture





After tumbling to lows of 1.2735, and dragging the entire 100% correlated risk complex down with it, the EUR has since seen a straight line push higher despite the sad reality that for all expectations, Europe was embarrassingly simply unable to come to a resolution over Greece and has kicked the can to November 26, leaving Greece with zero cash to fund obligations to European banks, and if anything is left over, to fund domestic operations. The reason for the move up? The market, in all its wisdom,hopes  that 6 short hours after saying "9", Merkel has already softened her stance and that a deal in 5 days is inevitable. For that to happen, some form of OSI haircut (official sector impairment) would have to be part of the deal, something Germany has been furiously against from the beginning.  Of course, these are the same people who said a deal last night was inevitable. These are the same people who also said that Washington is this close from a reconciliation on the Fiscal cliff, despite this thing called reality (see Rough start for fiscal cliff talksfrom Politico). Adding to the surrealism was a French spokesman who said the country would "do everything to reach a Greek accord." Since a recently downgraded France will "do" nothing (that's Germany), but will "say" everything, it is safe to say that France is now the comic relief typically attributed to Jean-Claude Jun(c)ker.


Finally, and wrapping up the bizarro surreality of central planned markets, the recent spike in Brent on Gaza re-escalations has been interpreted by those uber-complex DE Shaw algorithms as a risk on move, and pushed all risk indicators to overnight highs. With volume today set to be abysmal as trading desks will be empty around noon, expect some more absolutely insane zero volume moves in the SkyNet battleground formerly known as the "market."

The key events in a pre-holiday subdued session via SocGen:

The markets should continue to move on the Eurogroup announcement today, especially as economic newsflow will be light. EU finmins broke up with no agreement and though progress is reportedly to have been made on a debt reduction package for Greece, we now have our hopes pinned on a breakthrough at the next meeting on November 26th.



In the UK, investors will be paying close attention to the BoE minutes, and particularly the breakdown of the November meeting vote. A narrow vote would underpin, and perhaps even exacerbate, the debate on whether or not further QE will be pursued by the BoE in 2013: a risk factor for the GBP.

In the US, initial claims will be the main indicator to watch. A drop would confirm that last week's upturn was just a blip in the downward trend over the last month. Nevertheless, the impact on the Bond and FX markets could be limited as US investors prepare for the Thanksgiving break tomorrow. Moreover, the fiscal cliff remains the key topic for the US short term.

Overall, market sentiment likely will remain unstable and mixed towards the end of this week: an official and durable (if this term can truly be used) solution for Greece as well as reassuring information regarding the US fiscal cliff will be needed for investors to view the year end serenely.

Concluding with Jim Reid's recap:

An agreement to shore up Greece’s funding gap and debt sustainability remains elusive after Tuesday’s 11-hour Eurogroup meeting concluded without a consensus course of action. It also means that Greece will need to wait a little while longer until at least the next Eurogroup meeting (26th Nov) before it knows whether the troika will release the next bailout tranche (and the conditions attached). Ahead of the EU5bn T-note redemption last week we heard PM Samaras say that without the new bailout tranche Greece will run out of money "within days". The next debt redemption dates for Greece are 14th and 21st of December where EUR5.4bn and EUR1.6bn of T-notes are due.

Although we're yet to have a deal, EU's Junker said after the meeting that Greece has made “considerable progress” and that there are “credible options” to improve Greece’s debt position. Nevertheless, the lack of a definitive outcome saw the EURUSD sell off 30 ticks and is currently hovering around a 2 day low of 1.275 as we type. In terms of the “credible options”, a 15-page document prepared for the Eurogroup meeting suggested that relief measures currently on the table include EUR10bn of debt buybacks, reduction of interest on bilateral loans by between 25-70bp and interest deferrals on EFSF loans of up to 10yrs (Reuters).

Importantly however, the document suggests that Greece’s debt cannot be cut to 120% of GDP by 2020 (the level deemed sustainable by the IMF) without haircuts on Greek loans held by the official sector.We suspect whether Greece needs additional debt haircut was probably one of the key sticking point in the negotiations.
Overnight markets generally lost one-third to half a percent immediately following the Eurogroup headlines, but have retraced some of the losses. The Hang Seng (+0.33%), Nikkei (+0.7%) are trading higher on the day. The Shanghai Composite dipped below the symbolic and closely monitored 2000 mark and is now hovering at its lowest level since January 2009. Other risk assets including the AUD (-0.3%) and copper (-0.65%) are trading in the red. The USDJPY (+0.29%) is testing the 82 level overnight, a level last seen in early April. This comes after the release of disappointing Japanese trade data which showed exports down 6.5% yoy in October (vs -4.9% yoy expected). In the credit space, the Asian (-3bp) and Australian IG (-2bp) indices nudged wider post the Eurogroup headlines but are still trading tighter on the day.
Briefly recapping yesterday’s US move, the rebound in risk assets extended for a third consecutive day although US equities wobbled in the second half of the session as Bernanke warned that the Fed alone cannot fully offset the harm from going over the ‘fiscal cliff’. Bernanke also gave little away as to the Fed’s intentions at its December meeting. The S&P500 recovered into the close however, finishing with a marginal 0.07% gain as markets came to the realisation that there was nothing particularly ground-breaking in the speech.
Sector performance wise, technology stocks (-0.72%) weighed on the overall index after Hewlett-Packard announced an $8bn impairment on an investment in a British software maker. The matter is being referred to regulators for accounting irregularities which drove HP shares down 12% on the day.
Back to Bernanke’s speech yesterday he did note that the decline in US unemployment postcrisis, despite anaemic growth, suggests that the potential growth rate must be lower than the pre-crisis level of 2.5%. That being said, the “consensus amongst  (Bernanke’s) colleagues on the FOMC” was that “the unemployment rate is still well above its longer-run sustainable level, perhaps by 2 to 2.5% percentage points or so”. That line perhaps gave some comfort to markets that the Fed will not depart significantly from its current stance and helped explain some of the late-day rally in equities.
In other headlines, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Israel to help mediate talks between Israel and Hamas and called on both parties to “de-escalate” their week-long conflict. Egyptian officials were reported to be hopeful of a ceasefire deal on Tuesday night (although Israeli officials denied they were close to a truce). Brent crude is broadly unchanged overnight after losing 1.7% on Tuesday.
Turning to the day ahead, the focus will probably be on further comments from European leaders following the marathon Eurogroup meeting overnight. In reality it will likely be a quiet day ahead of Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow in the US. Data wise we have the US flash manufacturing PMI and jobless claims released today as well as the BOE’s minutes from the other side of the pond.
 


and.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-21/chart-day-greek-bailouts-context-or-debt-reduction-debt-increase


Chart Of The Day: The Greek Bailouts In Context... Or To Debt Reduction Via Debt Increase

Tyler Durden's picture




The simple Bloomberg chart below summarizes the running insanity that is the ongoing Greek bailout. To date, the existing bailouts - already completely wasted - amount to well over 100% of Greek GDP.


Keep in mind this is a simplistic, superficial read of the components involved in the three Greek bailouts to date. We show this to present the context for the Fourth Grek bailout which was a failure last night as virtually everyone knows that Greece, in its current iteration, is finished, and that with each passing day the economy collapses ever tighter into a singularity of its own, as nobody works, everyone is on strike, no taxes are collected, yet more government spending is curtailed, and the circle keeps on turning.

All of this is also quite well known to our regular readers. From April:

Two months ago many scoffed at us when we calculated that based on preliminary information, "The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP." We clarified as follows: "Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a "mere" €130 billion. Alas we have news for you - as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion,€175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in store) to €320 billion. Which incidentally is a little more than Greek GDP (which however is declining rapidly) at 310 billion, only in dollars. So as of today, merely the ratio of the Greek DIP loan (Debtor In Possession, because Greece is after all broke) has reached a whopping ratio of 136% Debt to GDP. Thisexcludes any standing debtwhich is for all intents and purposes worthless. This issecured debtwhich means that if every dollar in assets generating one dollar in GDP were to be liquidated and Greece sold off entirely in part or whole to Goldman Sachs et al, there would still be a 36% shortfall to the Troika, EFSF, ECB and whoever else funds the DIP loan (i.e., European and US taxpayers)! Another way of putting this disturbing fact is that global bankers now have a priming lien on 136% of Greek GDP - the entire country and then some now officially belongs to the world banking syndicate." Well, as it turns out, we were optimistic (which incidentally is always the case when we try to account for government stupidity and lies). To wit:

    • BARROSO SAYS TOTAL GREEK AID EQUAL TO 177% OF GREEK GDP - BLOOMBERG
    This is SECURED debt, or debt which foreigners have funded with a lien on all Greek assets.Including gold! Translated, the Greek Debtor in Possession loan has a 177% Loan to Value.

    Recall that according to the IMF Greek Debt/GDP will somehow be 120% in 2020. This means that 57% of the incremental debt will somehow have to be paid down. Or, as is 100% more likely, liquidated, with even more super-senior DIP debt. In other words, the Troika itself admitted that the Troika itself will be haircut before all is said and done.

    And yet another aspect of the ongoing Greek insanity. As per Bloomberg:

    European governments tore open the hole last week, by giving Greece two extra years to cut its budget deficit. The required extra financing provoked a clash with the IMF, since it would add to Greece’s debt load instead of reducing it.

    Or, as we predicted the day the first Greek bailout was announced in May 2010, "Greece Bailed Out To Get In Even More Debt."

    The absolute idiocy continues.
    In summary: to debt reduction, via debt increase comrades! Forward!




    and......






    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/21/eurozone-crisis-greece-aid-bailout-fail



    Greece's Kouvelis adds to Eurogroup criticism

    Fotis Kouvelis, the leader of Greece's Democratic Left party (the junior member of the coalition), has joined the ranks of Greeks criticising the eurogroup's performance at yesterday's meeting.
    Kouvelis declared that Greece's lenders and fellow eurozone countries should:
    immediately live up to their commitments.
    adding:
    Greece has taken all necessary measures
    One should point out that this occurred despite Kouvelis's party abstaining on the parliamentary vote on Greece's austerity plans.

    Wolfgang Schäuble is giving more details about Berlin's position on Greece.
    In the past few minutes the German finance minister has indicated that a programme to buy back some Greek bonds (thus cutting its total debts) could be worth €10bn. He also told reporters that the Bundestag could vote on the Greek programme on November 30 – four days after the Eurogroup is due to reconvene.
    In other words - Greece certainly won't get its aid tranche until December (it was originally due in September!)
    Schäuble is also discussing the idea of lowering the interest payments on Greek debt. However, as Reuters' Luke Baker (who endured the overnight talks in Brussels) points out -- he is not embracing the idea of 'Official Sector Involvement' - ie, losses on Greek bonds.
    And as Marc Ostwald argued this morning (see 10.06am) without a default, Greece's debts will never be sustainable.






    Sherry town’s streets are burning

    View of a street covered in litter in Jerez de la Frontera, Cadiz, southern Spain, 20 November 2012. View of a street covered in litter in Jerez de la Frontera, Cadiz. Photograph: ROMAN RIOS/EPA
    Over in Spain, angry residents have begun burning piles of rubbish in the streets as a long-running row over austerity cutbacks threatens public health.
    From Madrid, Martin Roberts explains how a strike by refuse collectors has left around 3,000 tonnes of detritus in the streets.
    Angry residents of Jerez de la Frontera, which is world-famous for making sherry wine, have taken to the streets and faced riot police for two nights in a row to burn some of the estimated 3,000 tonnes rubbish which has piled up in the last three weeks since dustbin men went on strike to reject proposals to lay off 30% of them due to spending cuts by the town hall.

    Residents have also complained about nasty smells and rats running through the ordure-strewn streets, but officials have denied there is a health risk in the southwestern town.
    “Rubbish by itself doesn’t lead to illnesses,” Andrés Rabadán, health service chief for the province of Cádiz, told local media. “There may well be a proliferation of rats, but rodents do not enter homes while there is rubbish around. Under normal conditions there are six or seven rats per person, but you don’t see them. They run away.”




    Pressure building over EU Budget

    The other looming crisis in Europe is the row over the EU budget, which will really kick off tomorrow when leaders gather for a two-day summit.
    UK prime minister David Cameron has already vowed to reject any real terms increase in the budget – but he won't be the only leader playing hardball.
    As Open Europe points out, another six countries have explicitly vowed to use their veto if they don't get their way. The Netherlands also wants the budget frozen, while Denmark wants its own veto - and France is unhappy about swathes of the proposals.
    This graph shows the divisions between Brussels and the UK (and also Germany).
    Various proposals for the EU Budget
    Photograph: Open Europe
    The two-day Summit begins on Thursday evening, but Brussels officials have already said it could run into Saturday if needed.



    Why Germany really fears a Greek haircut

    Norbert Barthle, a senior member of Angela Merkel's party, gave a clear insight into Berlin's fears over the eurocrisis this morning.
    Barthle, the CDU spokesman on budgetary affairs, told Deutschlandfunk radio that fresh debt reduction for Greece would be a terrible example to other struggling members of the eurozone - who would want to copy it!
    Barthle said a haircut would be:
    a fatal signal to Portugal, to Ireland and possibly to Spain.
    They would ask themselves straightaway, why should we ... push through tough measures that might lead to the government being voted out if our debts can be written off?"
    And that, of course, would mean even higher losses for German taxpayers (as well as commercial lenders).



    Economist Intelligence Unit: Still a 40% danger of Grexit

    Martin Koehring of the Economist Intelligence Unit has also argued this morning that eurozone leaders need to confront the unpalatable truth that Greece needs further debt relief to stand any chance of cutting its national debt to 120% of GDP by 2020.
    Koehring writes:
    Euro zone leaders continue to resist accepting a write-down on their loans to Greece, although it looks increasingly likely that this is the only way to reduce Greek debt to the 120% debt target that the IMF deems "sustainable"
    He adds that euro zone leaders will probably eventually agree on a deal to cut Greek debt substantially, to avoid Greece leaving the euro zone through mere 'technical disagreements'. But....
    A much more likely cause for a Greek disorderly default and euro exit would be domestic political developments in Greece (highlighted by rising political instability and social unrest). However, our assessment remains that there is a 40% probability that Greece leaves the euro zone within the next five years.”

    Merkel: Greek aid tranche is no miracle solution

    More developments in the political arena – Angela Merkel has told the Bundestag this morning that there is 'a chance' of a deal on Greece next Monday (yup, just a chance), and also warned that the eurozone crisis will rumble on for many more years.
    Merkel said:
    I believe there are chances, one doesn't know for sure, but there are chances to get a solution on Monday.
    But the longing for one act, one miracle solution, one truth that means all our problems are gone tomorrow ... this will not be fulfilled.
    What was neglected over years, over decades, cannot be taken care of overnight and therefore we will need to continue to move step by step.
    Merkel was taking part in a debate on the 2013 German budget, after opposition leader Peer Steinbrück called for a delay while the immediate Greek deadlock was solved (see 10.57am).


    Tsipras blasts Samaras over latest aid delays


    Greece's opposition leader, Alexis Tsipras, has been lambasting prime minister Antonis Samaras in the Athens parliament in the last few minutes.
    Tsipras, head of the Syriza party, told MPs that Samaras had failed to fight Greece's corner.
    Nick Malkoutzis of Kathimerini was watching the action, and reports:




    Peer Steinbrück: Greece in worse shape than Merkel admits

    Peer Steinbrück, head of Germany's opposition Social Democrats, has urged Angela Merkel to delay Germany's next budget until the uncertainty over Greece has been resolved.
    Steinbrück (who could potentially form a grand coalition with Merkel after next autumn's elections) added that Greece will require assistance until the end of this decade.
    He also warned that German taxpayers will ultimately pay the price.
    Reuters has the news snaps, and now you do too:
    • GERMANY'S STEINBRUECK SAYS CLEAR THAT GREECE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN TO CAPITAL MARKETS IN THIS DECADE
    • GERMANY'S STEINBRUECK SAYS MERKEL'S GOVERNMENT SHOULD PUSH BACK VOTE ON GERMAN BUDGET UNTIL THERE IS CLARITY ON GREECE
    • GERMANY'S STEINBRUECK SAYS CANNOT FILL GREEK FINANCING HOLE WITH MIX OF PIECEMEAL MEASURES

    Marc Ostwald: Greece must default

    Analyst Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities is on blunt form this morning, aghast at the eurogroup's failure to grasp the situation in Greece.
    Ostwald says:
    Once again one is stunned by the inability of all involved parties to face some key facts:
    a) Greece's problems are not related in any shape or form to its debt servicing costs, so any measures on this front are a case of 'fiddling while Athens burns';
    b) Greece's problems are about its debt mountain, which is de facto not sustainable without a huge write-off that will have to include all Official Sector holdings and, preferably reduce the CURRENT outstanding debt to GDP ratio to 60% or at worst 80% - there are no other solutions other than outright default.
    This will not change today, on the November 26th or any other date, though the longer the various parties involved fail to face up to this reality, the higher the probability of a very disorderly default.

    Merkel: deal still possible

    Back to the Greek deadlock, and Angela Merkel has been attempting to reassure German MPs in a closed-door meeting.
    Dow Jones Newswires has a source on the inside, who reports that Merkel told lawmakers that a deal on a Greek debt buy-back and cuts to the interest rates on its loans was still possible.
    She also, apparently, said Germany could be willing to help boost the capital held by the European Financial Stability Facility by €10bn – to help fund a Greek bond-buyback.

    Greece postpones fund-raising trip to Qatar

    Antonis Samaras has now postponed a trip to Qatar, scheduled for next Monday, because the Eurogroup will be holding another meeting on Greece on that day.
    Spokesman Simos Kedikoglou told Reuters that:
    The prime minister will stay in Athens to coordinate things.
    The irony here is that Samaras had been planning to drum up investment from the Qataris, which could have helped the country return to growth (and meet the privatisation targets imposed by the Troika).


    In Athens, bank shares slide


    Greek bank shares have fallen sharply in early trading, following the disappointment of the eurogroup meeting.
    Athens journalist Efthimia Efthimiou has the details:

    Schäuble: no deal on debt target or funding black hole

    German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has raced back from the eurogroup meeting to speak to German MPs at the Bundestag.
    He's explaining the situation with Greece, and making it clear that there is still no consensus on two key issues.
    According to Schäuble, eurogroup finance ministers and the IMF could not agree how to fill the €14bn shortfall in Athens' finances over the next two years. There was also disagreement on whether Greece had to achieve debt sustainability by 2020 or 2022.

    Greek PM: No justification for Eurogroup failure

    Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras has blasted eurozone finance ministers for failing to agree a deal on the country's bailout at last night's talks.
    In the face of public disappointment and criticism from opposition MPs (see 7.20am), Samaras there was no justification for the latest delay.
    In a punchy statement, Samaras said:
    Greece did what it had committed it would do . Our partners, together with the IMF, also have to do what they have taken on to do.
    Any technical difficulties in finding a technical solution do not justify any negligence or delays.
    (quotes via Reuters)
    Samaras must hope that the Greek public blame the eurogroup for the deadlock, rather than him.

    And the early reaction from Greece suggests that's how the citizens are reacting:



    Why the talks failed

    While finance ministers were arguing last night, Reuters got their hands on a document prepared for the meeting.
    It showed that Greece's debts can only be cut to a sustainable level if eurozone countries accept losses on their loans to Athens, provide additional financing or force private creditors into selling Greek debt at a discount.
    The document outlined that other measures (such as cutting the interest rates on Greece's loans or buying debt from private investors) would not have enough impact on the country's debt pile.
    It said that either member states accept "capital losses or budgetary implications", or push back the target date for Greece's debts to fall to 120% of GDP by two years, to 2022.
    Eurozone countries are not, yet, prepared to accept the first option, while the second option is unacceptable to the IMF. Thus deadlock.


    Greek MP: We are being humiliated


    A Greek opposition MP has hit out at the humiliation being heaped on the Athens government, following the Eurogroup's failure to agree a deal overnight.
    Dimitris Papadimoulis of the left-wing Syriza party declared:
    A new postponement. On Monday, they will a band aid until the German elections.
    The government is doing all their favors and is being humiliated in return.
    That's via Kathimerini, the Greek newspaper. It's deputy editor, Nick Malkoutzis, also questions whether Athens should change course.

    Schäuble: Greek questions are so complicated

    Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble also spoke to the press after the eurogroup meeting, saying:
    the questions are so complicated we didn't find a conclusive solution.

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