Rebels Split as Syrian Govt. Agrees to Cease-Fire
Major Islamist Faction Spurns Truce, Vows to Continue Fighting
by Jason Ditz, October 24, 2012
According to UN Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, the Syrian government and the largest rebel faction, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), have both agreed to a temporary ceasefire for the duration of the Eid al-Adha holiday, meaning the potential for a multi-day pause in the civil war.
Brahimi has expressed hopes that the temporary truce will gave both sides time to consider the value of negotiation, and that it might lead to a new round of settlement talks, though whether or not that happens remains to be seen.
It may be hard to even keep the ceasefire going for the Eid, as the al-Nusra faction, one of the more aggressive Islamist blocs in the civil war, has rejected the idea of a ceasefire, and has promised to continue its offensive.
That could make it difficult for the other factions to sustain their ceasefires, as the Syrian military will inevitably retaliate against al-Nusra attacks, and potentially draw other rebel blocs, which were respecting the ceasefire, into the battle as well.
Last 5 posts by Jason Ditz
- Emails Add to Growing Questions About Administration's Benghazi Response - October 24th, 2012
- Benghazi Attack Suspect Killed in Cairo Gunbattle - October 24th, 2012
- US General: Too Early to Tell if Iraq Is an Ally - October 24th, 2012
- Russia: Syrian Rebels Using US-Made Stinger Missiles - October 24th, 2012
- African Union Reinstates Mali Ahead of Invasion - October 24th, 2012
and Iran news items.....
The bombed Sudanese factory produced Iranian Shehab missiles
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 24, 2012, 11:03 PM (GMT+02:00)
Sudanese missile factory in flames
The Yarmouk Complex of military plants near Khartoum, whicht was bombed five minutes after midnight Wednesday, Oct. 24, by four fighter-bombers, recently went into manufacturing Iranian ballistic surface-to-surface Shehab missiles under license from Tehran,DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources disclose. Western intelligence sources have not revealed what types of Shehab were being turned out in Sudan but they believe the Yarmouk’s output was intended to serve as Tehran’s strategic reserve stock in case Iran’s ballistic arsenal was hit by Israeli bombers.
The Israeli Air Force has a long record of pre-emptive attacks for destroying an enemy’s long-range missiles in the early stages of a conflict. In June 2006, for instance, the IAF destroyed 90 percent of Hizballah’s long-range missiles in the first hours of the Lebanon war.
Videos of the explosions caused in the air raid over Sudan showed large quantities of phosphorus flares in the sky suggesting that a large stockpile was demolished along with the manufacturing equipment.
Western sources did not divulge information about the comings and goings of Iranian missile specialists or whether the Bashir government had given Tehran permission to stage attacks from Sudan against Middle East targets, in return for the allotment of a number of missiles to the Sudanese army. All they would say is that the complex's structures had been completely leveled by the aerial bombardment and subsequent fire.
Sudan accused Israel of the attack and stated it reserved the right to respond at a time and circumstances of its choosing. Israeli officials declined to comment in answer to questions.
If Indeed Israel was responsible for the bombing raid, it is possible to postulate the following objectives:
1. Its air force flew 1,800-1,900 kilometers to reach the Sudanese arms factory, a distance longer than the 1,600 kilometers to the Iranian underground enrichment site of Fordo. This operation may have been intended to show Tehran that distance presents no obstacles to an Israeli strike on its nuclear program.
2. The IAF has an efficient in-flight refueling capability.
3. The raid would have degraded Iran’s ability to retaliate for a potential Israel or US attack.
If it was conducted by Israel, it would add a third item to the list of backdoor assaults in which Iran and Israel appear to be engaged in the past three months.On August 17, the power lines to Fordo were sabotaged, interrupting the work of enrichment taking place there and causing some of the advanced centrifuges to catch fire.
The Israeli Air Force has a long record of pre-emptive attacks for destroying an enemy’s long-range missiles in the early stages of a conflict. In June 2006, for instance, the IAF destroyed 90 percent of Hizballah’s long-range missiles in the first hours of the Lebanon war.
Videos of the explosions caused in the air raid over Sudan showed large quantities of phosphorus flares in the sky suggesting that a large stockpile was demolished along with the manufacturing equipment.
Western sources did not divulge information about the comings and goings of Iranian missile specialists or whether the Bashir government had given Tehran permission to stage attacks from Sudan against Middle East targets, in return for the allotment of a number of missiles to the Sudanese army. All they would say is that the complex's structures had been completely leveled by the aerial bombardment and subsequent fire.
Sudan accused Israel of the attack and stated it reserved the right to respond at a time and circumstances of its choosing. Israeli officials declined to comment in answer to questions.
If Indeed Israel was responsible for the bombing raid, it is possible to postulate the following objectives:
1. Its air force flew 1,800-1,900 kilometers to reach the Sudanese arms factory, a distance longer than the 1,600 kilometers to the Iranian underground enrichment site of Fordo. This operation may have been intended to show Tehran that distance presents no obstacles to an Israeli strike on its nuclear program.
2. The IAF has an efficient in-flight refueling capability.
3. The raid would have degraded Iran’s ability to retaliate for a potential Israel or US attack.
If it was conducted by Israel, it would add a third item to the list of backdoor assaults in which Iran and Israel appear to be engaged in the past three months.On August 17, the power lines to Fordo were sabotaged, interrupting the work of enrichment taking place there and causing some of the advanced centrifuges to catch fire.
On Oct. 6, an Iranian stealth drone was launched from Lebanon into Israeli air space and photographed its most sensitive military sites as well as the Dimona nuclear reactor before Israel brought it down.
Israel halts war games to deploy troops, resources in escalating Gaza sector
DEBKAfile Special Report October 24, 2012, 1:59 PM (GMT+02:00)
Palestinian rocket explodes in Ashkelon
Defense minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz decided Wednesday, Oct. 24, that the heavy Palestinian missile assault from the Gaza Strip, which escalated to 60 rockets on Israeli civilian locations, in a few hours, must be stopped. The bulk of the personnel taking part in the joint Israeli-US war game Austere Challenge 12 and the Turning Point 6 home front exercise were ordered to pull out, together with anti-missile interceptors and other resources, and redeploy in southern Israel across from the Gaza Strip.
Following this decision, another 13 rockets were fired at Ashkelon early Wednesday afternoon.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the two exercises were effectively halted – “reduced” according to the official communiqué - after a wide range of towns and villages within range of the Gaza Strip, including Ashkelon, took a heavy beating from round after round of rockets, including Grads.
Two Thais working in the fields of the Eshkol district were flown to hospital in critical condition. Several properties were seriously damaged and local schools and work places remained closed.
Following this decision, another 13 rockets were fired at Ashkelon early Wednesday afternoon.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the two exercises were effectively halted – “reduced” according to the official communiqué - after a wide range of towns and villages within range of the Gaza Strip, including Ashkelon, took a heavy beating from round after round of rockets, including Grads.
Two Thais working in the fields of the Eshkol district were flown to hospital in critical condition. Several properties were seriously damaged and local schools and work places remained closed.
The concentrated assault on Ashkelon, against which 7 rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome batteries, is taken by Israel’s top commanders as the opening shot of a major Hamas offensive, with worse to come.
Our sources report that officials in Washington and Jerusalem are in tense discussions over what to do with the 1,000 US troops, the American Patriots and the US warship standing by with an Aegis anti-missile battery, assigned to the three-week joint exercise which started Sunday.
On the one hand, the joint exercise’s mission was to practice the defense of Israel against potential Iranian, Syrian, Hizballah and Hamas missile attack. The current Hamas assault would seem to be an appropriate operational pitch for the American soldiers to practice tactics in real combat.
But the last thing President Barack Obama wants at this time is direct US military involvement in any Middle East war arena, certainly before the Nov. 6 vote. Using the Gaza scene for practice holds the potential of drawing US soldiers at some point into spiraling combat against the Palestinian Hamas and ultimately the Lebanese Hizballah.
Our sources report that officials in Washington and Jerusalem are in tense discussions over what to do with the 1,000 US troops, the American Patriots and the US warship standing by with an Aegis anti-missile battery, assigned to the three-week joint exercise which started Sunday.
On the one hand, the joint exercise’s mission was to practice the defense of Israel against potential Iranian, Syrian, Hizballah and Hamas missile attack. The current Hamas assault would seem to be an appropriate operational pitch for the American soldiers to practice tactics in real combat.
But the last thing President Barack Obama wants at this time is direct US military involvement in any Middle East war arena, certainly before the Nov. 6 vote. Using the Gaza scene for practice holds the potential of drawing US soldiers at some point into spiraling combat against the Palestinian Hamas and ultimately the Lebanese Hizballah.
In September, the two terrorist organizations signed mutual defense pacts under Iran’s aegis, obligating Hizballah to open a second front against northern Israel if Hamas comes under Israel attack in Gaza. The defense minister warned Wednesday that while Israel is not eager for ground action in the Gaza Strip, its army is committed to doing everything necessary to restore calm and security to southern Israel.President Shimon Peres was the first statesman to connect the rising Hamas aggression to the visit of Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani of Qatar in Gaza City Tuesday with a fat check for “development constructon”.
No sooner had he departed, than the Islamist group ruling Gaza let loose with salvoes of rockets against Israel.
Peres commented WEdnesday said that it is intolerable for the rulers of Gaza to receive millions of dollars form the Emir of Qatar and shoot rockets. Nowhere in the world, whether London or New York, would it be acceptable for money awarded for building materials to be spent on rockets. Israel cannot put up with any more of this, said the president. "It is up to Gaza to choose between development and terror and murder."
The Qatari ruler’s motives in his visit were not exactly constructive, DEBKAfile reported on Oct. 22. He came to extend the regional ambitions which found expression in his intervention in the Libyan revolt and the Syrian conflict. Now, he is bidding to shore Hamas up as a forcefor reining in Salafi and al Qaeda lawlessness in Sinai before it cuts into Qatari influence in Libya. Israel may find itself not only up against Islamist terrorists but their Qatari sponsor too.
Our military sources predicted then that his visit would encourage Hamas to flex its muscles against Israel to impress its new patron.
Our military sources predicted then that his visit would encourage Hamas to flex its muscles against Israel to impress its new patron.
The Gaza terrorist crisis ties in with a parallel alert declared by Israeli, US, Egyptian and Jordanian counterterrorism agencies for the coming Eid al Adha festival starting Oct. 25. Our sources revealed that Salafi and al Qaeda cells in Egyptian Sinai are poised to unleash coordinated terrorist attacks on US and Egyptian targets in Sinai and in Israel to avenge Israel’s targeted killing of two senior commanders of the Salafi-al Qaeda Sinai-Gaza network. Perpetrators of the Benghazi murders of 4 US diplomats are among the jihadi reinforcements coming in from Libya.
and...
http://news.antiwar.com/2012/10/24/iran-considers-tougher-line-after-combative-us-approach/
Iran Considers Tougher Line After Combative US Approach
The US and Europe 'have stubbornly refused to seek a negotiated solution with Iran,' according to experts in Foreign Affairs
by John Glaser, October 24, 2012
Iran “is weighing a more confrontational strategy” that would “boost levels of uranium enrichment unless the West makes clear concessions to ease sanctions,” according to the Associated Press.
Mansour Haghighatpour, deputy head of Iran’s influential National Security Committee in parliament, told the Associated Press that the decision to take a more defiant stance came only after the US and its allies have imposed harsh economic sanctions while refusing to make concessions in any viable negotiated settlement.
“The West now has a chance to strike a deal with Iran,” Haghighatpour told the AP. “Perhaps we may need to produce nuclear fuel for large commercial vessels that need 60 percent purity.”
This new posture, which Iran has not yet been committed to, suggests the economic warfare, threats of preventive war, and overall bellicose approach that the US, Israel, and their European allies have taken is not effective.
Obama has been criticized for a supposed diplomatic opening towards Iran, which hawks like GOP nominee for president Mitt Romney claim gave Iran time and space to expand their nuclear program.
But two experienced academics and diplomats, writing in Foreign Affairs say the so-called diplomatic opening Obama brought was anything but: “for the past three years, the United States and Europe have stubbornly refused to seek a negotiated solution with Iran,” they write.
Rolf Ekéus, Executive Chairman of the UN Special Commission on Iraq from 1991 to 1997, and Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, write that “calling for war while intensifying pressure on Iran, without also clearly defining steps Tehran could take to defuse the tension, removes any incentives for Iran to change its behavior.”
Most of the so-called diplomacy with Iran has been “predicated on intimidation, illegal threats of military action, unilateral ‘crippling’ sanctions, sabotage, and extrajudicial killings of Iran’s brightest minds,” writes Reza Nasri at PBS Frontline’s Tehran Bureau.
After the failed talks in 2009 and 2010, wherein Obama ended up rejecting the very deal he demanded the Iranians accept, as Harvard professor Stephen Walt has written, the Iranian leadership “has good grounds for viewing Obama as inherently untrustworthy.” Former CIA analyst Paul Pillar has concurred, arguing that Iran has “ample reason” to believe, “ultimately the main Western interest is in regime change.”
“The West feels sanctions are biting and this is forcing Iran to return to the negotiating table. That’s wrong. We never left the table. Sanctions have been harmful but will never make us give up our nuclear activities,” said lawmaker Hossein Naqavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s Security Committee. “Pressures, sanctions and military threats won’t make us retreat.”
Last 5 posts by John Glaser
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