Friday, October 26, 2012

Rosneft poised to become the number one oil producer -- and who killed and Exxon Exec and why ( was it kept under wraps for almost two weeks ? )

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-26/guest-post-putin-new-global-shah-oil


Guest Post: Putin Is the New Global Shah of Oil

Tyler Durden's picture





Submitted by Marin Katusa via Casey Research,
Exxon Mobil is no longer the world's number-one oil producer. As of yesterday, that title belongs to Putin Oil Corp – oh, whoops. I mean the title belongs to Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company.
Rosneft is buying TNK-BP, which is a vertically integrated oil company co-owned by British oil firm BP and a group of Russian billionaires known as AAR. One of the top-ten privately owned oil producers in the world, in 2010 TNK-BP churned out 1.74 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from its assets in Russia and Ukraine and processed almost half that amount through its refineries.

With TNK-BP in its hands, Rosneft will be in charge of more than 4 million barrels of oil production a day. And who is in charge of Rosneft? None other than Vladimir Putin, Russia's resource-full president.
TNK-BP has been an economic dream, producing many billions in dividend payments for its owners – but it has been a relations nightmare. The partners have fought repeatedly. In 2008 Russian authorities arrested two British TNK-BP managers amid a dispute over strategy that forced then-CEO Bob Dudley (who now heads BP) to flee Russia – and that is just one of many partnership scandals.
The writing has been on the wall for TNK-BP since this time last year, when one of the AAR billionaires quit his role as CEO of the venture and declared that the relationship with BP had run its course. Since then speculation has raged over who might buy into the highly profitable venture.
Now we know: Rosneft is buying the whole thing, in a two-part deal. In the first part, Rosneft is acquiring BP's 50% stake of the joint venture in exchange for cash and Rosneft stock worth $27 billion. The deal will give BP a 19.75% stake in Rosneft. In stage two, AAR would get $28 billion in cash for its half, though this deal is not yet finalized.
Finalized it will be, however, because thebillionaires of AAR are now eager to sell, rather than remain in a joint venture with the powerful Russian oil company. Rosneft gained much of its current heft at the expense of another Russian oligarch whom Putin threw under the bus, and the billionaires of AAR know they could easily meet the same fate if they try to partner with Rosneft as equals.
If it all comes to pass, Rosneft's daily production will jump to some 4.5 million barrels per day – enough to put the Russian firm neck and neck with Exxon in the race to be the world's top oil producer. And the deal that seals it will be worth something like $56 billion – for comparison, Nike is worth $34 billion and Kraft only $27 billion. If the TNK-BP deal goes through, it will be the largest in the industry since Exxon bought Mobil in 1999.
Numbers like that deserve a little contemplation. Russia is spending a heck of a lot to buy its own oil production – smells like nationalization to me. And with Vlad Putin – the most resource-driven leader in the world today – behind the controls, I dare say we're witnessing the "Saudi Aramco-ing" of Russian oil.

Putting Putin in a position of even greater resource power can only lead one place: to high oil prices and an amazing bull market in energy.
What's In It For BP
Russia has been a pretty profitable place for BP, and while BP is tired of dealing with the drama within TNK-BP, the British firm definitely wants to stay in Russia to participate in developing the country's vast northern oil and gas potential.

A cash and shares deal gives BP a nice ownership stake in Rosneft, which is the best way to profit from Russia's immense untapped oil potential – because Putin will ensure Rosneft gets first dibs at prime opportunities. Depending on the size of BP's slice, the company would likely also get a seat or two on Rosneft's board. That is as important as anything else, because it would put BP personnel in regular, direct contact with Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, who has a significant say in Russian energy policy.

In general, a role in Rosneft would also allow BP to pursue closer ties with a Kremlin that exerts a much tighter hold on the oil industry than it did in the 1990s, when BP first invested in Russia. And anyone who wants to operate in Mother Russia has to have an inside track to the Kremlin – or you are likely to find yourself unexpectedly kicked to the curb.
Putin's Plan Is Working
Rosneft has grown dramatically in the last ten years – not by chance, but becauseRosneft is Vladimir Putin's vehicle to reassert state ownership over a fair chunk of Russia's oil fields. The most famous example happened in 2003, when Putin charged privately held producer Yukos Oil with a $27-billion tax bill that bankrupted the company. The Russian president then handed Yukos' oil fields over to Rosneft, immediately boosting Rosneft's daily production from 400,000 barrels to 1.7 million barrels.

It was blatant nationalization. Yukos' chairman and founder, Russian billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky, was convicted of fraud and sent to prison. Overnight, Rosneft ballooned from a small producer to Russia's biggest oil company.
With a snap of his fingers, Putin had created a national oil giant, a vehicle through which he could pursue his plan to reassert Russian influence in the world by controlling other countries' energy needs. The pending TNK-BP deal is simply the next step in this plan. If Rosneft does buy TNK-BP, the state oil giant will pump almost half of the barrels of oil produced in Russia.
That is a massive amount of oil.Remember, only Saudi Arabia produces more oil than Russia; and no country in the world exports more oil than Russia. The country is an energy superpower – and by gradually nationalizing Russia's energy resources, Putin is tightening his grip on Europe's energy needs.
However, Putin knows he can't quite do it alone – his country doesn't have enough oil and gas expertise. Without the right expertise, production will tank, and Putin's whole plan will be derailed.

History proves that point. When Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry in 1980, the country was producing more than 10 million barrels of oil per day. Within five years, production had fallen by more than 60%.
For Putin, that's not an option. That's why he is encouraging BP to stick around – Rosneft needs BP's technical expertise in order to tap into Russia's huge reserves of unconventional tight oil and shale gas. Having BP as a significant shareholder also lets Putin continue the pretense that Rosneft is not simply an arm of the government.
But an arm of Putin's government it is, and as Rosneft gradually takes control of more and more of Russia's oil wealth, Putin's leverage on the international stage will increase. Saudi Arabia may have struggled in its early years as an oil-producing giant, but today the country hosts incredible clout on the world stage because of its ability to open or close oil spigots and thereby influence global oil prices.

Europe is reliant on Russia for oil and gas. To be in control of other nations' necessary energy resources is to be in a very powerful position – one that Putin has been working toward for more than a decade.
He has built pipelines that bypass troublesome countries and feed into needy markets. He is cornering the uranium market by owning a large amount of primary production and controlling 40% of global uranium-enrichment capacity, while leaving the United States in need of a new nuclear-fuel supplier. He has increased Russia's oil and gas production and encouraged unconventional exploration.
Gazprom, the Russian state gas company, already has Europe wrapped around its little finger. Russia supplies 34% of Europe's gas needs, and when the under-construction South Stream pipeline starts operating, that percentage will increase. As if those developments weren't enough, yesterday Gazprom offered the highest bid to obtain a stake in the massive Leviathan gas field off Israel's coast.

Gazprom in control of Europe's gas, Rosneft in control of its oil. A red hand stretching out from Russia to strangle the supremacy of the West and pave the way for a new world order– one with Russia at the helm.
It is not as far-fetched as it might seem – or as you might want it to be. If Rosneft does buy both halves of TNK-BP, it will become a true goliath within the global oil sector.All the little Davids who rely on its oil will be at Putin's mercy. Same goes for Gazprom as a Goliath in the continent's gas scene.
In this scenario, Russia could choke off supply to raise prices. Putin could play oil- and gas-needy nations off one another, forcing European nations to commit to long-term, high-priced contracts if they want secure supplies.
Or imagine this: Russia could join OPEC.Suddenly the oil cartel would control more than half of global oil production and most of its spare capacity. With that kind of clout, the nations of OPEC could essentially name their price for oil – and the rest of the world would simply have to pay.

and one has to wonder who might want to kill this Exxon Exec.....

http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/oil-killing-are-we-about-to-witness-an-era-of-gang-warfare-in-energy/

OIL KILLING: Are we about to witness an era of gang warfare in energy?

News blackout on Belgian shooting can’t disguise signs of assassination
Hazy….the facts surrounding mob-style killing of Nick Mockford (left)
I wonder how many people reading the rapidly petering-out Belgian oil ‘hit’ story realise that the incident took place fifteendays ago. Although Belgian police insist that this is normal, it isn’t. That is, news blackouts about eurodisaster may be normal, but a ban on news about this serious a hit is about as abnormal as they come.
Death scene…the Da Marcello restaurant in suburban Brussels
Thus far, a near-Stepford Wife headline has appeared almost everywhere along the lines of ‘A British oil executive gunned down in Brussels could have been the victim of a targeted assassination’.
Sorry to be obvious here, but WTF else does anyone think it might have been….a deranged waiter who thought Mockford’s derisory tip was the last straw in a life going bad?
“It could’ve been a random mugging and car-jacking attempt,” Belgian police told a prominent UK news agency yesterday. As the two assassins ran away like the clappers in bike gear carrying crash helmets – having poured four shots into the bloke – I’m scoring this minus 53 on a probability scale of ten. Yesterday, Nick’s employer Exxon came out with this belter attempting to beat that with a score of minus 97:
“We were shocked by the tragic death of Nick Mockford, one of our employees a fortnight ago in Brussels. Mr Mockford was a department manager at our office close to Brussels, but we have no indication that the incident was work-related.”
Well hell, that’s the way it is in Brussels – it’s the Wild West out there guys, Abilene has nothing on your eurocrat suburb. Here are some equally relevant clues:
This is Nick Mockford, Aussie-rules star from Melbourne Australia. Nick is half the Belgian victim’s age, not entirely caucasian, 18,000 miles from the slaying, and still alive. Belgian police have ruled him out of their enquiries at this stage.
Should we all try and get real here? A senior Exxon executive goes out for dinner with his wife in a town where the most dangerous thing about the place is that it smells of chips. On leaving – and let’s be clear about this – he was shot to death by two blokes who had clearly taken the trouble to work out what he was doing there, and waited for him to exit the eaterie. They ran off. A news blackout was then declared for fully 240 hours. Are any of us (even people like me who dismiss 90+% of all known conspiracy theories) expected to believe that, on closer examination, this appears to have been an attempt to steal the guy’s company car? I sincerely hope not, as otherwise all hope for the human species has left the theatre.
Nichlas Mockford wasn’t just some two-bit ‘departmental manager’. He was the Head of Marketing for interim technologies for Exxon. For interim technologies read ‘Green=alternatives to oil=end of Texas, Middle East, East Med undersea’…..and indeed any region whose current or future wealth might be based on black gold. For example, Russia.
Or, for interim technologies read ‘Green=eco-warriors seeing him as an ‘earth-traitor’=possibly persons of Kiwi/Hard Left/libertarian persuasion’.
The escaping motor-cyclists so clearly hell-bent on nicking Mr Mockford’s car were described by witnesses as “looking East European”.
So there we have it. I’m hoping that tomorrow’s (Sunday) papers have some intriguing leads re this one, otherwise I’d be inclined to write off MSM journalism for good.


Belgium probes oil executive's murder
Police looking for two suspects who shot Nicholas Mockford outside a restaurant in Brussels on October 14.
Last Modified: 26 Oct 2012 17:22

Mockford was attacked as he left an Italian restaurant in Brussels on October 14 [Reuters]
Belgian police are investigating the murder of a British oil executive who was shot dead in front of his wife.
Nicholas Mockford, who worked for US oil company ExxonMobil, was killed outside a restaurant in Brussels almost two weeks ago. Authorities did not disclose the crime at the time because of its serious nature.

Belgian police said on Friday they were looking for two suspects who shot Mockford four times as they tried to snatch his wife's handbag.
Police initially believed Mockford was killed in a failed car hijacking but have declined to say if they are also investigating the case as a possible contract killing.
After news of the killing surfaced in local Belgian media, a UK foreign office spokesman in London said: "We can confirm the death of a British national in Brussels on October 14."
Police said in a statement that after the couple left an Italian restaurant in Brussels and headed for their car, a man attacked Mockford's wife, "assaulting her violently".
"He punched her face and tried to snatch her handbag," the statement said.
"A second man fired four shots [at Mockford] who died of his wounds."
A spokesman for ExxonMobil said on Friday the company was "shocked by the very tragic death".
Switching course
In the beginning, the investigating judge imposed an order on police preventing them from releasing any detail on the case, which police said was not unusual in a serious murder case. As a result, initial news reports were sparse.
But on Thursday, authorities switched course and decided to enlist the public's help, releasing a brief description of the crime.
Mockford and his wife, Mary, left Da Marcello restaurant about 10 pm, the report said. They crossed the street toward their car, identified by news reports as a Lexus.
When they reached the car, an assailant "threatened" Mrs Mockford, hit her several times in the face, and tried to yank her bag away, police said.
Suddenly, a second assailant fired four shots at Mockford, who died at the scene, according to police.
On October 16, the VTM television channel interviewed a neighbor who asked not to be identified.
"I heard the sound of two, well I don't know, like tack, tack," said the man, whose image was blurred. "I thought that was strange and went outside."
"I saw a woman lying on the sidewalk across the street. She was shouting 'Help! Help!' There was also a man lying next to a car."
Hit-and-run accident
The man said Mrs Mockford mentioned a white van, so neighbors originally thought her husband had been the victim of a hit-and-run accident.
"I stayed with the man, but he stopped breathing," the neighbour said.
"I resuscitated him and he came to. Then he became unconscious again and at that moment the ambulance arrived."
He said after ambulance workers had cut open the man's clothing, he saw the man "had a bullet in his chest and a bullet in his shoulder. There was also blood on his head."
Investigators have asked that the driver of the van report to police, saying it had crossed the couple's path shortly before the attack.
The assailants, who wore motorcycle helmets, initially escaped on foot but were later seen on a motorcycle, the police report said.
 

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