http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-01/adp-jobs-number-unsurprisingly-beats-post-revision-expectation
ADP "Jobs" Number
Unsurprisingly Beats Post-
Revision Expectation
That by now absolutely nobody can possibly take any number out of the ADP seriously is beyond question. For those confused why, just read "ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012." And yet the establishment, and its very serious PhD pretend this "advance look" into NFP is relevant for one simple reason: it provides an anchor for HFT algos to send risk ramping, even though everyone knows it is a purely goalseeked, statistical aberation. To that end, moments before it was announced we tweeted the following: "October ADP "beats", ES jumps, then after one year it is revised lower by 50%" Sure enough, seconds ago, the ADP reported that after its October number was revised from 162K to 88K, the November print just came out at 158K, on expectations of a 131K print (and a very serious sell side range of 80K to 170K). Now all we need is the October 2013 revision of this data series, which will say the ADP was only kidding and the number was really half of what was reported. "Automatic Data Processing" indeed...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-01/initial-claims-beat-expectations-last-weeks-beat-revised-miss
Initial Claims Beat Expectations, Last Week's Beat Revised To Miss
Last week, when we reported last week's lucky Initial Claims expectations beat of 369K, we explicitly said the following: "today's Initial Claims number which magically "beat" expectations by 1K, printing at 369K, on expectations of 370K, will be revised to a miss of 372K next week." And guess what last week's number was just revised to? That's right: 372K, which means that last week's beat was actually a miss. But who cares. Oh, and this week's just as manipulated print of 363K, which was a beat of expectations of 370K, will be spun as a 9K drop in initial claims of course. Next week this number will be revised to 365K-366K as usual, because the BLS has now upward revised its weekly claims number for something like 80 weeks in a row.
And for those curious why last week's number plunged to a pre-revision 369K from the ~390K print week before that, it was again, California's fault, which saw 16,586 fewer claims in the week ending October 20 due to "fewer layoffs in the service industry." To be expected: after all the administration has succeeded in reflating the subprime bubble, and every true-blooded Californian is once again a mortgage banker with a hungry Lamborghini to feed.
Finally, after dropping relentless every week, those Americans on extended claims/EUCs have somehow once again started rising, increasing by 47K in the week ending October 13. Perfect pre-election timing.
and....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/grim-preview-fridays-jobs-number
A Grim Preview Of This Friday's Jobs Number
Following this morning's dismal employment sub-index from Chicago Fed PMI and the recent Philly Fed employment sub-index, the 'data' suggests that this week's (now confirmed by the BLS that NFP will be released on Friday as scheduled) payroll data could be the first negative print since September 2010. Of course, we are sure that pre-emptive Sandy 'action' and seasonal adjustments will explain away any miss from the current +125k estimate. Is this why the market is not levitating on moar broken windows?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/chicago-pmi-misses-after-early-leak-employment-33-month-low
Chicago PMI Misses After Early Leak, Contracts; Employment At 33 Month Low
Half an hour ago, just as the NYSE was preparing to unleash the AAPL selling onslaught, MarketNews released an errant PR in which it indicated that the Chicago PMI missed, coming at 49.9, or well below expectations of a 51.0 print. A few minutes ago MarketNews officially broke the Chicago PMI embargo early, and the early leak was confirmed, with the October PMI printingindeed at 49.9, a modest increase from 49.7 in September, but missing expectations for the third month in a row. And once again the headline belied how ugly the underlying data was, which as even MNI explained, saw the employment index slide to 50.3 from 52.0, and just barely above contraction. Either way, this was the lowest print in 33 months. Surely this will be enough for another massive NFP beat on Friday.
Third miss in a row for the broad index:
Below is a chart of the true employment situation in the US, unadjusted for Obama's reelection chances.
And the always entertaining respondent comments:
- Like usual our 4th quarter is going to be busy, international orders are picking up, and domestic companies are picking up as well. We should be able to make up some ground on our projected numbers for the year in the 4th quarter.
- Uncertain how government spending will impact the month of October and November. Aluminum prices increasing, but will it stabilize, which would be good for the industry.
- Wow, things are getting interesting. It seems we are either heading for another crash or that we may be turning the corner. A few key chemical components have seen significant price increases.
- Packaging and steel are stable and lower, respectively.
- Foreclosure activity is increasing but so are investor purchases of these units.
- Suppliers seem to either have or perceive to have more pricing power, with many attempting price increases.
- Orders are continuing our way quoting has slowed somewhat but we are expecting a tsunami of new orders.
and.....http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/adp-cancels-365000-private-jobs-created-2012
ADP "Cancels" 365,000 Private Jobs Created In 2012
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2012 13:41 -0400
Frequent readers know that in addition of any "data" and "numbers" out of Larry Yun's National Association of Realtors, which we openly boycott as these are consistently manipulated (recall the massive historicalDecember 2011 revision), slanted and conflicted, the second dataset which we have mocked with a passion is anything coming out of the ADP, which every month releases its "Private Jobs" number a day before the official BLS Non-farm Payroll data. Today, our mockeries have been proven 100% spot on. The reason? A week ago, ADP announcedthat going forward it would coordinate with Moody's (yes, that Moody's), and especially its chief economist, SecTres hopeful (InTrade odds of actually attain that post: 0.00) Mark Zandi, to fudge adjust its data going forward. The data revision was supposed to be publicly disclosed tomorrow when the official October ADP number was released. Well, just like today's Chicago PMI, and so many other data points recently, this too was released early. What the early release allowed us to promptly calculate is that using the historically revised numbers, and comparing those based on the original methodology, in 2012 alone, the US would have lost a whopping... 365,000 private jobs! Putting thus number in context, according to the revised methodology, the US has generated only 1.172MM jobs in 2012 through September, or in other words, a statistical "fix" magically eliminated over 30% of what the market had previously expected were job gains, a number which the incumbent president has certain taken advantage of on more than one occasions while campaigning.
The chart below shows the old data series (which can still be found at the St. Louis Fed), and the new series, which can be extracted from the advance leaked press release. The cumulative difference is the black line. It needs no explanation.
What is also of note, is that had ADP used its revised methodology, it would have missed 5 out of the past 7 Wall Street consensus estimates.As an added bonus, whereas according to the previous release, which we were lucky enough to tag here, the US generated +4,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the new release indicates that in the same month, the US actually lost -17,400 manufacturing jobs. Perhaps it is time to rerun the Ohio presidential speeches one more time...
And that is how "precise" supposedly the far more accurate ADP (at least in comparison to the NFP's wild X-12-ARIMA extrapolated goalseeked data) was historically.Basically the "job creation" in America is and has always been a function of an excel spreadsheet, and seasonal fudge factors, as ADP just definitively confirmed. As such, we look forward to the next "revision" which will eliminate a further 1.1 million private jobs in 2012, showing an economy that has added virtually no jobs in the current year. Luckily, what ADP also did, was professional suicide, as after this "recasting", absolutely nobody,except for the BLS of course which will now be forced to do a comparable datarevision, will take the New Jersey based company, and especially its Moody's Joint Venture, seriously.
To summarize: "If you think America created jobs, it didn't. ADP made that happen."Look forward to ADP re-revising its numbers tomorrow, to make them once again fit in with the general narrative that things in America are, contrary to every indication, getting better.
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