Hurricane Sandy watch...... Will this cause a national emergency and delay to the Election of November 6th ?????

MEET SANDY

HURRICANE SANDY

THE PERFECT STORM 2012

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/opinion/8192/more-perfect-storm

( While this article is from 10/25 , it gives a great overview as to why Sandy may be a real , real  hell raiser...  perhaps record low barometric pressure , what appears to be quite the storm surge , 5 to 10 inches of rainfall being forecast , infrastructure damage as considerable risk of tree / branches / utility poles  knocking power lines out and days if not weeks needed to restore power potentially.....)

A MORE PERFECT STORM

SANDY COULD MAKE U.S. HISTORY

Bob Henson • October 25, 2012 | It’s a scenario that seemed outlandish just days ago. But it now looks as if Hurricane Sandy will likely pummel the mid-Atlantic coast early next week. Technically, Sandy may not be classified as a hurricane by that point (I'll ponder that question in a future post; here, let's call it Sandy for convenience). Nevertheless, this storm is in a position to carve out multiple niches in U.S. weather history while producing what could easily be billions of dollars in damage.

What makes Sandy so unusual?  And how might it rewrite weather history?

THE BIG HOOK

The National Hurricane Center's official forecast issued at 2100 UTC (5:00 p.m. EDT) on Thursday, October 25, shows Hurricane Sandy snaking its way across the western Atlantic before striking New Jersey early on Tuesday, October 29. (Image courtesy NHC.)

As I write, Sandy is in the Bahamas as a Category 2 hurricane, stronger than expected, and projected to move northeast from the Bahamas, as hurricanes so often do. But then—thanks to a strong upper-level storm dipping into the eastern U.S., and an extremely strong center of high pressure toward Greenland—the storm is expected to take a grand counterclockwise loop and arc northwest, which would bring it to the U.S. coast by Tuesday and drive it well inland.

The official National Hurricane Center forecast issued at 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday (see map at right) has the center of Sandy making landfall early Tuesday in New Jersey while moving toward the northwest. To say this path would be unusual is a major understatement. Few if any hurricanes in the last 100 years have struck the mid-Atlantic or New England with quite such a dramatically hooking path (which resembles a big question mark, as several forecasters have noted).

Unfortunately, this curving path would also maximize Sandy’s time close to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As shown in NHC's weekly sea-surface map, temperatures are running 1-2°C above average off the mid-Atlantic coast.

EXTREME LOW PRESSURE

Leading forecast models are producing spectacularly low pressures at the center of Sandy.  Here are several results from this morning’s 1200 UTC runs for approximate projected intensity in hectopascals at or near landfall. Note that 945 hPa is close to 28.00 inches of mercury on a home barometer.

GFDL GHM ECMWF NOAA GFS

928 hPa 936 hPa 944 hPa

central NJ, Tuesday AM Delmarva peninsula, Monday PM Long Island, Tuesday PM

This forecast panel from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model (GFDL GHM), issued at 1200 UTC on Thursday, 25 October, shows Hurricane Sandy producing record-low barometric pressure near Philadelphia on Tuesday, 30 October. (Image courtesy NOAA.)

While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).

As noted by Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters, the landfall pressures with Sandy may be less extreme than predicted, because of known model difficulties in handling tropical systems moving into midlatitudes. However, all-time records could still be well within reach at some locations.

BIG WATER

Sandy’s hooking path and low pressure will help funnel mammoth amounts of seawater toward the Atlantic coast north of wherever the center makes landfall. Thanks to the massive high pressure to the north, and a separate low pressure center far to the east, models project a ribbon of easterly winds all the way from Europe to the mid-Atlantic as Sandy approaches. In addition, there’s a full moon on Monday afternoon, which will exacerbate any storm tides. All of these factors should help strengthen a rare and powerful wave- and surge-generating machine.

Of the hurricanes ranked Category 2 or greater that have moved within 200 nautical miles of New York City since the 1850s, none are known to have taken a westward hook of the type indicated for Sandy. The hook raises the odds that water will be pushed perpendicular to the coastline, as opposed to more common paths that often parallel the coast. (Image courtesy NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks.)

The closest recent analog in this realm may be the late-October system of 1991 dubbed "the perfect storm" and made famous in the book and movie of the same name. This was a nontropical winter-type storm southeast of the Canadian Maritimes that absorbed the remnants of Hurricane Grace and arced west. Fortunately for North America, it veered back eastward before making landfall. However, it still produced waves of 10 to 30 feet from North Carolina to Nova Scotia, with tides as high as 14 feet in Boston and a record 7.8 feet in Ocean City, Maryland.

It's worth noting that the surface pressures with Sandy are predicted to be substantially lower than for the 1991 storm (972 mb). Moreover, Sandy is expected to actually make landfall.

New York City is at particular risk for serious impacts from storm surge. If Sandy moves inland on the New Jersey coast, huge amounts of water will flow toward New York’s harbor, so predictions of storm surge will be critical. NOAA is now issuing surge predictions for landfalling hurricanes using a probabilistic, ensemble-based approach. And at the Urban Ocean Observatory of the Stevens Institute of Technology, Philip Orton and colleagues are using the New York Harbor and Ocean Observing System (NYHOPS) to produce surge forecasts based on the NAM model.

“I am personally very concerned about storm surges in New York City,” says Orton, who’s blogged on the topic. He’s working to quantify the longer-term threat with the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast. “City managers and scientists agree that we’re not ready for a 100-year flood event, in major part because we haven’t had one in well over 100 years," Orton says.

Inland flooding is also a serious threat with Sandy. NOAA guidance and recent model runs suggest that 5–10” of rain could fall along and near the storm's path. Heavy snow is even possible along some of the highest terrain of the Appalachians.

University of Wyoming researcher Eric Debenham launches a radiosonde during a 2003 field study. Hundreds of extra radiosondes will be launched across the nation over the next several days to help nail down Sandy's path. (©UCAR. Photo by Carlye Calvin. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.*)

TREES AND POWER LINES

Perhaps the biggest potential threat from Sandy for millions of people inland is the risk of power outages and tree loss. Winds may not be sustained above hurricane force, especially inland, but strong gales of 50–60 mph with higher gusts could easily stretch across a vast swath of the most heavily populated part of the country. These winds may be enough to bring down many trees and power lines, especially when accompanied by soil-loosening rains. If enough utility customers are affected, it could take days if not weeks to restore power to some areas—potentially affecting the November 6 elections.

ALL EYES ON THE STORM

As this threat builds, NOAA has planned an unprecedented array of extra observations. Radiosondes (weather balloons) are normally launched twice a day, at 00Z and 12Z UTC, from nearly 100 points across the United States. Starting today, the National Weather Service will launch extra balloons at 06Z and 18Z, nationwide at first (to capture an evolving storm now over the western U.S. that will steer Sandy), and then focusing on the eastern U.S. into early next week.

“While we have run extra soundings in the past, we have never done this for the entire continental U.S.,” Louis Uccellini told me. Uccellini is director of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “Doing this on such short notice is an indication of how seriously the NWS views the potential threat from this system, especially as it relates to coastal inundation, flooding from heavy rains, and the like.”

In addition, the GOES-14 satellite will be collecting special imagery above Sandy at 1-minute intervals until the storm dissipates or makes landfall. Refresh these maps (Colorado State University) to see loops of the 1-minute data.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-latest-path-projection.html

27 OCTOBER 2012

Hurricane Sandy Latest Path Projection

Because of the counter-clockwise rotation of hurricanes the maximum wind and rain is encountered on the right side of the eye of the storm.

The models are still only calculating probabilities, but they tend to refine over time. The critical period will be when the storm is projected to turn northwestward on Monday.

The storm may gather additional energy as it tracks across the Gulf Stream before making its final approach to land.

http://enenews.com/nytimes-urgent-warnings-as-sandy-strengthens-hurricane-flood-blizzard-could-stay-over-region-for-days-feds-with-satellite-phones-stationed-at-nuclear-plants

NYTimes: Urgent Warnings as Sandy Strengthens — Hurricane-Flood-Blizzard could stay over region for days — Feds with satellite phones stationed at nuclear plants

New York Times, 3:15p ET: Urgent Warnings as Hurricane Sandy Strengthens and Heads to Northeast [...] There were also fears of widespread flooding inland. [...] The full moon on Monday could cause even greater flooding because tides would be at their peak.AP: Frigid air coming south from Canada also is expected to collide with Sandy and the wintry storm from the west, creating a megastorm that is expected to park over the northeast for days. [...] HIGH TIDES COULD WORSEN FLOODING: A full moon means the tides will be higher than usual, which will make it easier for the storm’s powerful winds to push water into low-lying areas. [...] COMBO OF SNOW, WIND INCREASES RISK FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES: [...] The superstorm brings two possibilities for knocking out electricity. For one, hurricane-force winds of at 74 mph could send tree branches into power lines, or even topple entire trees and power poles. Those left standing could succumb to snow, which could weigh down still-leafy branches enough to also topple trees.

NJ Star Ledger:  “We’ll have to see where it goes, but it looks like it’s going to have a pretty good hit on New Jersey,” [Neil Sheehan, a spokesman for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission] said today. Sheehan said that federal inspectors with satellite phones will be stationed at the plants through the storm.

and.......





http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2012/10/nuclear_regulatory_commission_1.html


Nuclear reactors in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are being monitored for potential impacts by Hurricane Sandy, a Category 1 storm that may strike anywhere from Delaware to southern New England.
“Because of the size of it, we could see an impact to coastal and inland plants,” Neil Sheehan, a spokesman based in Philadelphia for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said by phone today. “We will station inspectors at the sites if we know they could be directly impacted.”

The NRC met earlier today to discuss the necessary precautions to take for the storm, Sheehan said. Plants must begin to shut if wind speeds exceed certain limits, he said.
As of 2 p.m. New York time, Sandy had winds of 75 miles (121 kilometers) per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was about 430 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, moving north at 7 mph.
The current Hurricane Center track calls for the system to come ashore just south of Delaware Bay on Oct. 30.
Contingency Plans
Nuclear plants in the projected path of the hurricane include North Anna and Surry in Virginia, Calvert Cliffs in Maryland, Hope Creek and Salem in New Jersey, Indian Point in New York and Millstone in Connecticut. The NRC is considering enhancing inspector coverage of these reactors, Sheehan said in an e-mail today.
Public Service Enterprise Group must shut all units at the Salem and Hope Creek plants two hours before the onset of hurricane-force winds greater than 74 mph, according to Sheehan. An “unusual event” would be declared if the winds are sustained for greater than 15 minutes or if the water level reaches 99.5 feet or higher, he said. Such an event is the lowest of four level of emergency used by the commission.
Salem Unit 2 is currently shut for refueling, while Unit 1 was operating at 83 percent of capacity today during maintenance on the circulating water system. Hope Creek ran at full power. The three units have a combined capacity of 3,365 megawatts.
“We are in phase one of our severe-weather plan,” Joe Delmar, a company spokesman, said in an e-mail responding to questions. “This includes inspecting, removing and securing outside areas for potential missiles, objects that could go airborne, and staging of emergency equipment and supplies.”

Millstone Reactor
Nuclear generation in the Northeastern region dropped 1.1 percent to 18,016 megawatts, with seven plants shut, an NRC report today showed.
Dominion Resources’s Millstone plant is monitoring Sandy’s progress and preparing to adjust staff as it comes closer, according to Ken Holt, a plant spokesman based in Richmond, Virginia. The plant must shut if winds reach 90 mph.
“We would shut down in advance of the storm if they were expected to be 90 miles per hour at the site,” Holt said by phone today. “Floods and high winds are a threat because they can knock off off-site power and we’d then need to activate emergency generators for power to put the plant to safe conditions.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-27/hurricane-sandy-update

Hurricane Sandy Update

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/27/2012 11:27 -0400

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Still unsure if to laugh off Sandy, memories of the overblown New York City panic over Irene still fresh, or if to sandbag the basement and first two floors of your house? Here is the latest on the storm courtesy ofJeff Masters' Wunderground blog, which at last check had the following characteristics: Wind: 75 MPH — Location: 29.0N -76.0W — Movement: NNE. In other words, slowly but surely approaching New York, with landfall still expected sometime Tuesday morning. One thing is certain: there will be at least some "boost" to Q4 GDP as a result of the quite a few broken windows, even as all domestic companies line up to blame Sandy for continuing to miss the top line and increasingly, their EPS numbers, some time in January.

First, some maps via Weather Underground:

Radar:

Satellite

5 Day Forecast

Surface Wind

Computer Model Forecasts:

Ensamble Models

Sandy remains a hurricane, slowly leaving the Bahamas

Reuters reports that the death toll from Sandy in the Caribbean is now up to 41 people as Hurricane Sandy continues its track toward the U.S. East Coast this afternoon, slowly leaving the Bahamas. States of Emergency have been declared in North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, and New York. The hurricane is just barely still a Category 1 with surface winds of 75 mph and a minimum central pressure of 971 mb. Ocean buoys off the coasts of Florida andthe Carolinas are recording sustained winds of around 45 mph this afternoon, with gusts steadily increasing and now up to 60 mph. Sandy's rainfall, which is limited to the north and northeast parts of the storm, is reaching eastern Florida, though most of it is staying offshore.

Satellite loops show an asymmetric Sandy, with almost all of the thunderstorm activity on its north side. The hurricane still has a very clear center of surface circulation which you can see on visible and infrared loops. Though the hurricane is leaving the influence of an upper level low pressure area over western Cuba, water vapor imagery shows a large area of dry air being pulled into the storm from the south, which is leading to the lack of thunderstorm activity and contributing to the weakening that Sandy is experiencing right now. The hurricane's tropical storm-force winds now extend 240 miles from the center, and could grow to 400 miles from the center by the time it reaches the East Coast.

Figure 1. Visible/infrared satellite image of Sandy as it leaves the Bahamas this afternoon. The mid-latitude trough, which Sandy will interact with over the next few days, is seen approaching from the northwest. The cold front associated with this trough is draped from upstate New York south to Louisiana, and appears as a line of clouds draped across the Midwest and South in this image.

Forecast For Hurricane Sandy

As a tropical cyclone approaches land, the worst storm surge is almost always where the winds are blowing from ocean to shore, where the wind pushes the water toward and onto the shore. In the case of Sandy's potential track, this region is on the north side of the center. In this morning's GFS scenario, Sandy's center passes over eastern Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. This would result in the highest surge north of New York City: Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and possibly Maine. The ECMWF forecast from this morning is a bit further to the south. It's suggesting Sandy's center will meet land in New Jersey. This scenario opens up New York City, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern coastal Mass. to the largest surge. In general, the places that will avoid the largest storm surge are those that are south of where the center of the storm makes landfall. The National Hurricane Center's forecast is similar to the ECMWF, but most importantly, its forecast is also to not focus on the exact point of landfall because of the size of the storm, and that widespread impact is expected.

The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts should be prepared for a storm surge no matter their exact location. A large portion of the coast will feel the impact of up to 60 mph winds and heavy rain. According to the most recent H*Wind analysis from the Hurricane Research Division is that storm surge has a destructive potential of 4.8 out of 6.0, which is a slight increase from previous analyses. Wind damage potential is holding steady around 2.3 out of 6.0.NOAA's HPC is forecasting rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and possibly more in coastal locations close to the core of the storm. Widespread power outages from Maine south to Virginia are likely, due to the combination of long-lived gale-force winds, leaves on trees, and rain that will moisten the soil and possibly increase the chances of falling trees. Snow in the Appalachians is also possible as the intense moisture meets the cold air being pulled south by the mid-latitude trough.

Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Atlantic shows a large area of unusually warm waters up to 9°F above average off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.

Sandy to feed off near-record warm waters off the mid-Atlantic coast
During September 2012, ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast in the 5x10° latitude-longitude box between 35 - 40°N, 65 - 75° W were 2.3°F (1.3°C) above average, according to the UK Met Office. This is the 2nd greatest departure from average for ocean temperatures in this region since reliable ocean temperature measurements began over a century ago (all-time record: 2.0°C above average in September 1947.) These unusually warm waters have persisted into October, and will enable Sandy to pull more energy from the ocean than a typical October hurricane. The warm waters will also help increase Sandy's rains, since more water vapor will evaporate into the air from a warm ocean. I expect Sandy will dump the heaviest October rains on record over a large swath of the mid-Atlantic and New England.

Hurricane rains and climate change
Hurricanes are expected to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). This occurs since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, which can then condense into heavier rains. Furthermore, the condensation process releases heat energy (latent heat), which invigorates the storm, making its updrafts stronger and creating even more rain. We may already be seeing an increase in rainfall from hurricanes due to a warmer atmosphere. A 2010 study by Kunkel et al."Recent increases in U.S. heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones", found that although there is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling tropical cyclones (which include both hurricanes and tropical storms), the number of heavy precipitation events, defined as 1-in-5-year events, more than doubled between 1994 - 2008, compared to the long-term average from 1895 - 2008. As I discussed in a 2011 post"Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?", an increase in heavy precipitation events in the 21st Century due to climate change is going to be a big problem for a flood control system designed for the 20th Century's climate.

Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 - 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/26/hurricanes-sandy-41-dead-emergency

Hurricane Sandy: 41 dead as as authorities declare state of emergency

Experts warn Sandy could contribute to a storm of 'historic proportions' expected to strike US coastline as early as Monday

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• Adam Gabbatt, Tom McCarthy and agencies
• guardian.co.uk, Friday 26 October 2012 17.46 EDT
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Hurricane Sandy passes by Fort Lauderdale. Experts said there was a 90% certainty that storm would make landfall on the east coast. Photograph: Keystone/Rex Features

A state of emergency was declared in some areas along the US east coast on Friday as experts warned Hurricane Sandy could contribute to a storm of "historic" proportions.

The hurricane left 41 people dead as it passed through the Caribbean and headed north. Sandy could strike the US coastline anywhere between Virginia and Massachusetts as early as Monday.

Meteorologists warned that weather conditions could be complicated as Sandy is expected to meet two separate weather systems somewhere over the north-east United States, resulting in high winds, heavy rain, extreme tides and perhaps even snow.

"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. He compared the convergence of weather systems to the so-called "perfect storm" that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, although that storm hit a less populated area.

On Friday afternoon, the centre of the hurricane was moving slowly north around 430 miles south-southeast off the coast of South Carolina. Sandy was moving at 7mph with maximum sustained winds near 75mph. Forecasters said there was a 90% certainty that storm would make landfall on the east coast, althought it was too early to predict where it would come ashore.

Parts of Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba were left devastated as the hurricane swept over on Thursday and Friday, leaving at least 41 people dead. In Cuba, 11 people were killed in eastern Santiago and Guantanamo provinces, as authorities said Sandy was Cuba's deadliest storm since July 2005. One person died as Sandy passed through Jamaica and 16 were left dead in Haiti, where heavy rains from the storm's outer bands caused flooding in the impoverished and deforested country. A 66-year-old man died in the Bahamas after falling from his roof in upscale Lyford Cay late Thursday, as he attempted to repair a window shutter.

New York, Virginia and Maryland declared states of emergency on Friday. In Virginia, where Mitt Romney cancelled a rally planned for Sunday night, Governor Bob McDonnell told people to prepare ahead of the storm's arrival, warning that the state "could see severe weather lasting for 48 hours or more".

"In that scenario, saturated soil coupled with high winds could lead to major tree damage and extensive power outages," McDonnell said. "Virginians should make sure their family members, friends and neighbours are prepared for this extended weather event. I encourage all Virginians to gather batteries, blankets, water, canned goods, and other necessities prior to the anticipated onset of storm conditions late Saturday and early Sunday."

New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg said he would wait until Saturday before potentially issuing an evacuation order, but warned that the storm was moving at such a rate that "we're still not going to have a good sense of when and where it's going to hit land". The last major storm to threaten the northeast coast was Hurricane Irene which caused an estimated $15.8bn in damage in August last year, making it one of the costliest storms in history.

Bloomberg said that bridges may have to be closed in New York. The MTA suspends subway, bus and other transit services in advance of the arrival of sustained winds at 39mph or higher, he said, while power outages are also a possibility.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday that wherever the storm comes ashore, there will be 10in (254mm) of rain and extreme storm surges. Up to 2ft (0.6m) of snow should fall on West Virginia, with lighter snow in parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

"It's going to be a long-lasting event, two to three days of impact for a lot of people," said James Franklin, forecast chief for the National Hurricane Center.

http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-sandy-map-2012-10

FRANKENSTORM Could Be The Worst Northeast Storm In 100 Years

Joe Weisenthal and Gus Lubin | Oct. 26, 2012, 5:50 AM | 3,848 | 4

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Hurricane Sandy could merge with a second storm out of the midwest to become the worst Northeast storm in 100 years, described as a Frankenstorm.

National Weather Service meteorologist Paul Kocin tells Bloomberg: “What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century ... We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”

New York City Mayor Bloomberg has told residents in flood-prone areas to be prepared to evacuate before the storm hits around Tuesday of next week.

 Here's the latest map as of 5 ETD:

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20121026/DA255F700.html

NASSAU, Bahamas (AP) - Hurricane Sandy raged through the Bahamas early Friday after leaving 21 people dead across the Caribbean, following a path that could see it blend with a winter storm and reach the U.S. East Coast as a super-storm next week.

Sandy knocked out power, flooded roads and cut off islands in the storm-hardened Bahamas as it swirled past Cat Island and Eleuthera, but authorities reported no deaths in the scattered archipelago.

"Generally people are realizing it is serious," said Caroline Turnquest, head of the Red Cross in the Bahamas, who said 20 shelters were opened on the main island of New Providence.

Sandy, which weakened to a category 1 hurricane Thursday night, caused havoc in Cuba early in the day, killing 11 people in eastern Santiago and Guantanamo provinces as its howling winds and rain toppled houses and ripped off roofs. Authorities said it was Cuba's deadliest storm since July 2005, when category 5 Hurricane Dennis killed 16 people and caused $2.4 billion in damage.

(AP) Soldiers an rescue workers patrol after the passing of Hurricane Sandy in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba,... Full Image

Sandy also killed one person while crossing Jamaica on Wednesday and 10 in Haiti, where heavy rains from the storm's outer bands caused flooding in the impoverished and deforested country.

Early Friday, the hurricane's center was about 15 miles (25 kilometers) east-southeast of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas and 485 miles (780 kilometers) south-southeast of Charleston, S.C. Sand was moving northest at 13 mph (20 kph) with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph (130 kph).

Forecasters warned that Sandy will likely mix with a winter storm to create a monster storm in the eastern U.S. next week whose effects will be felt along the entire Atlantic Coast from Florida to Maine and inland to Ohio.

A new tropical storm watch was issued early Friday for a section of the U.S. East Coast extending from Savannah, Ga., northward to North Carolina's Outer Banks.

Sandy, which crossed Cuba and reached the Bahamas as a category 2 hurricane, was expected to maintain its category 1 storm status for the next few days.

(AP) Resident Antonio Garces tries to recover his belongings from his house destroyed by Hurricane Sandy... Full Image

In the Bahamas, power was out on Acklins Island and most roads there were flooded, government administrator Berkeley Williams said.

On Ragged Island in the southern Bahamas, the lone school was flooded.

"We have holes in roofs, lost shingles and power lines are down," said Charlene Bain, local Red Cross president. "But nobody lost a life, that's the important thing."

Steven Russell, an emergency management official in Nassau, said docks on the western side of Great Inagua island had been destroyed and the roof of a government building was partially ripped off.

Sooner Halvorson, a 36-year-old hotel owner from Colorado who recently moved to the Bahamas, said she and her husband, Matt, expected to ride out the storm with their two young children, three cats, two dogs and a goat at their Cat Island resort.

(AP) Fallen palm trees lie on a road after the hurricane Sandy in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba, Thursday Oct.... Full Image

"We brought all of our animals inside," she said, though she added that a horse stayed outside. "She's a 40-year-old horse from the island. She's been through tons of hurricanes."

On Great Exuma island, guest house operator Veronica Marshall supplied her only customer with a flashlight and some food before Sandy bore down. She said she was confident that she and her business would make it through intact.

"I'm 73 years old and I've weathered many storms," she said.

Tropical storm conditions were possible for Florida's southeastern coast, the Upper Keys and Florida Bay by Friday morning.

Hurricane Sandy was expected to churn through the central and northwest Bahamas by Friday afternoon and then head northward off the U.S. coast.

(AP) Locals walk across the flooded streets of La Plaine, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012, after... Full Image

With storm conditions projected to hit New Jersey with tropical storm-force winds Tuesday, there was a 90 percent chance that most of the U.S. East Coast would get steady gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe snow starting Sunday and stretching past Wednesday, U.S. forecaster Jim Cisco said.

In an announcement at the end of Cuba's Thursday night newscast, Cuban authorities said the island's 11 dead included a 4-month-old boy who was crushed when his home collapsed and an 84-year-old man in Santiago province.

Santiago, Cuba's second largest city near the eastern tip of the island, was spared the worst of the storm, which also slammed the provinces of Granma, Holguin and Las Tunas.

There were no reports of injuries at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, but there were downed trees and power lines, said Kelly Wirfel, a base spokeswoman. Officials canceled a military tribunal session scheduled for Thursday for the prisoner charged in the 2000 attack on the Navy destroyer USS Cole.

In Haiti, Joseph Edgard Celestin, a spokesman for the civil protection office, said the country's death toll stood at nine, including three people who died while trying to cross storm-swollen rivers in southwestern Haiti. He did not provide specifics of how other people died.

Officials reported flooding across Haiti, where many of the 370,000 people still displaced by the devastating 2010 earthquake scrambled for shelter. More than 1,000 people were evacuated from 11 quake settlements, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Sandy was blamed for the death of an elderly man in Jamaica.




http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-track-for-next-five-days.html

25 OCTOBER 2012

Hurricane Sandy Track for the Next Five Days

We may wish to keep an eye on this one for any potential impact on trading for the early part of next week.

It will probably not maintain a broad hurricane intensity, but it looks to have some serious momentum behind it, with the tides of a full moon at its back.

I am sure most Northeasterners remember the 'Halloween' storm of last year.

There is some question on how and where Sandy will make landfall on Monday or Tuesday. It could bring several feet of snow with it to Pennsylvania, and heavy rains to the NYC metropolitan area.

It will probably not maintain hurricane status, dropping to a serious tropical storm.

More significantly, depending on the storm surge direction, NY traders may wish to bring their water wings with them to the pits. It could be much worse than Hurricane Irene in that regard.

I have added this chart below because it shows the track most clearly and makes the last leg into the shore much more visible.  The storm damage will depend on the path this takes.  It could conceivably be anywhere from Boston to Washington at this point.

It may move further out to sea but the models make this seem less likely. We will know more in another day or so. Get those generators ready.I have to add that a week ago when I started tracking this storm when it was off the Yucatan Peninsula, the ONLY model that showed it taking its current track was the Canadian model. Every other major model showed the storm moving much further harmlessly out to sea. Score one for Canada on the weather front.

One of my son's friends from school is a serious meteorologist in training. He keeps us updated on the latest thinking in the emerging science. He does it because he loves it. Even when they were in high school he spent a great deal of time on it.

What is his incentive to do this? It is not the expectation of a solid six figure income. It is the joy of learning, the ecstasy of understanding. And he may well be rewarded for this, but that will be a benefit, not the primary objective.

In the days when people considered what they did for a living as a craft, in the manner of craftsman, this attitude towards one's vocation was not so uncommon as it might be today, when everything and everyone is considered just a transaction.

Of course not everyone and every job can rise to that level. But such regard for honest labor was considered an important ideal, and society honored those who honored it.

In our world today, everything is money, no matter how it is achieved, including theft and fraud and the exploitation of slave like labor.  Look who we choose as our role models, and our leaders.   The attitudes and mores of human society moves in cycles, and I think we are at the low ebb of this one.

Think about the implications of this, and then see why we are where we are today, in the teeth of a storm.