http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9585406/Spain-fears-harsh-rescue-terms-from-AAA-Nordic-parliaments.html
Fear of escalating demands by Germany, Finland and Holland is a key reason why Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy continues to drag his feet on a full sovereign bail-out.
Spain's refusal to act has frozen the eurozone rescue machinery and begun to rattle markets. The European Central Bank will not buy Spanish bonds until the country requests aid from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and signs a "Memorandum" giving up fiscal sovereignty.
Finance minister Luis de Guindos told Spain's parliament Wednesday that there will be no bail-out until the terms are clear. "The government will take the best decision for Spain and its European allies when it knows all the details," he said.
Finland has become the greatest worry. "Rajoy is terrified that the Finns will say `No' after he has requested a rescue," said a Spanish economist with close ties to the Rajoy team.
Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, head of the Grand Committee on Europe in Finland's parliament, said Finnish lawmakers must vote on any deal and would make their own decision.
Items of note from Greece today....
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_2442_02/10/2012_464231
Prosecutor obtains list of major depositors
Venizelos, an ex-finance minister, said he had the list on a memory stick, which he passed to Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. The premier gave it to the Financial Crimes Squad (SDOE), which forwarded it to Peponis. A stir was caused after Giorgos Papaconstantinou, who preceded Venizelos as finance minister, told the Financial Times that he had received a CD in 2010 containing the names of Greek depositors from his French counterpart at the time, Christine Lagarde. Papaconstantinou said that he passed the information to SDOE but suggested that the CD had gone missing since. Venizelos said that he had presumed the data was in the hands of authorities but came forward with the memory stick when it was suggested that SDOE did not have the information. The PASOK leader cast doubt on whether the data could be used to launch action against suspected tax evaders as it had not been obtained legally. Sources told Kathimerini that many of the accounts on the list were not active and many belonged to Greek businessmen based abroad, although a former New Democracy politician was also among the depositors. Peponis will investigate why the contents of the list were not probed earlier, as well as whether the deposits were made legally. Meanwhile, the former head of procurement at the Defense Ministry, Yiannis Sbokos, was arrested on Tuesday evening. Sbokos is one of several people accused of corruption alongside ex-Defense Minister Akis Tsochatzopoulos. |
and....
Trolley work stoppage, Emporiki strike, motorcycle protest rallies
Also on Wednesday, Emporiki Bank staff members are holding a 24-hour strike to protest plans for the lender’s acquisition by Alpha Bank. Emporiki is a subsidiary of France’s Credit Agricole. Meanwhile, the Panhellenic Federation of Workers Associations of the Local Government (POE OTA) is organizing a series of motorcycle protest rallies in a number of cities around the country. Taking part in the industrial action which is expected to commence at noon, are doctors and municipal employees. In Attica, the protest rally will take off from Karaiskaki Square in central Athens.
Greek central bank cuts capital adequacy requirement
The central bank has abandoned the core Tier 1 ratio requirement of 9 percent effective Sept 30 and instead adopted a total capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent until their recapitalization is complete, the official told Reuters, declining to be named. The loosening of this threshold means Greek banks will not have to raise as much capital as they await resumption of the recapitalization process. Greece's second, 130-billion euro bailout has earmarked a sum of 50 billion euros to recapitalize the country's viable banks and cover resolution costs for others. A bank support fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), set up to carry out the recapitalization, has already pumped 18 billion euros into the country's four biggest lenders, but the rest of the funding will only resume when lenders disburse the country's next, 31.5 billion euro aid tranche. That aid has been delayed pending a review by the troika of European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund inspectors on the country's progress in meeting the terms of its bailout. Hammered by a deep recession and rising loan impairments, Greek banks have been forced to rely on the central bank for liquidity and begun to consolidate to survive the debt crisis. Greece's Piraeus Bank has struck a preliminary deal to buy French lender Societe Generale's loss-making Greek unit Geniki, two sources close to the talks told Reuters on Tuesday. On Monday fellow French bank Credit Agricole said it would sell its Greek unit, Emporiki, for a symbolic one euro to Alpha Bank.
|
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9583150/Debt-crisis-live.html
18.18 Surprise surprise. Portugal's main union has called a general strike on the back of today's announcement of austerity measures. CGTP said in a statement:
This is an authentic programme of aggression against the workers and the people ... The consequences for the workers and their families are brutal -- general impoverishment, drastic worsening of living conditions and life expectancy.
18.08 ...while a third official told Reuters that Greece and the troika were arguing over how much the economy will contract next year. The debt inspectors expect Greece's economy to shrink by 5pc, more than the government's 3.8pc forecast.
17.43 Another Greek official told AFP that the country hopes to reach accord with international creditors by Monday. He said:
More meetings will be held...we will know where we are on Monday [when eurozone finance ministers are to meet in Luxembourg].
17.15 Greece's talks with European debt inspectors are progressing well, but there is still "a large gap" between the two parties, according to the country's finance minister.
Yannis Stournaras told reporters:
Discussions with the troika are on a good track. There is still a large gap, we are trying to reach a compromise to seal a deal.
15.35 It also plans to introduce a financial transactions tax next year. The government is still working on further spending cuts, says Mr Gaspar.
15.32 The government will also introduce a "4pc income tax surcharge" in 2013. A new capital tax and luxury property tax will also kick in this year.
15.29 The country will reduce the number of income tax brackets to boost revenues. This will effectively take the average rate of income tax to 11.8pc, from the current level of 9.8pc.
Portugal currently has eight income tax brackets.
15.23 Now for the meaty bit.
The government reiterates its forecast that the economy will contract by 1pc in 2013, and grow by 1.2pc the following year. Unemployment will rise to 16.4pc next year, he adds.
Mr Gaspar says that additional measures worth 3pc of GDP are needed next year so the country can meet its targets.
15.15 Mr Gaspar says that the country is now considering issuing medium-term debt.
15.11 The crisis was caused by too much debt, says Mr Gaspar, but today's successful bond swap (see 12.07) shows that the country is making good progress.
He compares Portugal's progress to that of austerity poster child,Ireland.
15.08 Portugal's finance minister Vitor Gaspar has started his press conference on the country's bail-out and new austerity measures.
He starts by saying that there has been "intensive" public debate over the country's adjustment programme (aka lots of protests), but reform is at risk if there is no consensus.
15.01 European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has attempted to address the confusion over EU plans to recapitalise struggling banks.
We had an exchange of views on the Commission's proposals for a banking union, in particular the single supervisory mechanism. We are both determined to see the single supervisor in place as soon as possible, not least because it is an essential condition for the ESM to directly recapitalize banks. I will make clear at the next European Council in October that we must stick to the commitments we made in June European Council. It is a question of credibility for the EU and for all the member states that are our Union.
However, this still doesn't address the issue of "legacy debt" - whichGermany, Finland and the Netherlands said last month could not be taken on by the European Stability Fund (ESM).
14.42 A post-lunchtime blog by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard this afternoon. The title? Multiplying Europe's fiscal suicide (technical). I'll leave him to explain...
The entire EU austerity plan is based on a false premise. This disastrous error is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt.
The Teuto-Calvinists believe – or profess to believe, since much of their dogma is national self-interest dressed up as theory – that the fiscal multiplier is around 0.5.
That is to say, fiscal retrenchment worth 1pc of GDP will cut output by half as much, or around 0.5pc over two years. There is pain, but at least there is gain.
This is based on the IMF's analysis of fiscal crises over the decades.
Well, it has not worked out like that. Ireland has contracted at nearly seven times the speed, Spain four times, and Greece three times.
Here is a table put together by Jean-Michel Six from S&P using IMF data:
(Apologies for the size of the table, you can see a larger version here.)
As you can see, the multiplier is around 1.0 for the big countries, which is why France can expect a devastating year in 2013 as it tightens pointless by 2pc to comply with EU rules.
And why the world faces a full-blown shock if the US goes over the fiscal cliff and tightens by 4pc next year.
13.59 A full-scale Spanish bail-out is "inevitable", according to the president of Catalonia.
Artur Mas said that Madrid should ask for help without delay:
External aid will be inevitable, so it would be better to face it without a lot of delays [...] Spain has the potential to emerge from this situation ... but it needs help for a period.
Mr Mas also said there was no need to dramatise the situation. He said that the European Union had previously supported Spain's economic development:
Spain is already used to being helped.
13.41 Portugal may still have a funding gap of €9bn by the end of next year, despite today's debt exchange, according to economists atBNP Paribas.
Portugal exchanged €3.76bn today of a €9.7bn bond maturing in September 2013 (see 12.07). However, in a note today, Ricardo Santossaid that Portugal's revised budget deficit targets (to 5pc from 4.5pc in 2012, and 4.5pc in 2013 from 3pc) meant that its funding needs could increase by €800m this year and €2.5bn in 2013.
Based on these calculations, Portugal will still have a funding gap close to €9bn that will need to be covered via market financing or additional aid,BNP said.
13.05 Cyprus is playing hardball with the IMF over the terms of a potential bail-out
President Demetris Christofias told Greek state broadcaster NET that he would not sign any deal which called for the sale of profitable state-owned assets, or the abolition of inflation-linked salary increases.
However, Mr Christofias added:
We aren't just saying 'no' to them. We are giving them counterproposals.
Cyprus is currently talking to Russia, which has already lent Cyprus€2.5bn, about another bail-out loan.
Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov said last week that it would only grant a bailout loan to Cyprus as part of a co-ordinated rescue with the European Union.
12.35 More details about Spain's "bad bank" are emerging. Economy minister Luis de Guindos has said that the bank will buy assets at conservative prices and that its creation will "dynamise" the country's battered housing market
The bank will only accept loans above €200,000 and property assets above €100,000, he added.
12.07 Portugal dipped its toe back into the bond market this morning, successfully exchanging short for longer-term bonds in its first debt swap since it agreed a €78bn international bail-out last year.
Portugal's debt agency sold €3.76bn of three year debt at a coupon of 3.35pc, exchanging the bonds for debt maturing in September 2013 (5.45pc).
Commenting on the debt sale, Sergio Calpadi at Intesa SanPaolo toldReuters:
This is a very positive development for Portugal. We've seen Portuguese bonds performing well like Ireland and so not everything in Europe is going to rot.
11.48 This morning, Luis Morais Sarmento, the budget secretary, told parliament that Portugal's 5pc of GDP budget deficit target was achieveable.
Mr Sarmento said that while the deficit goal for this year was currently off by about 1.6 percentage points, the sale of airport operator ANA-Aeroportos de Portugal would help it to narrow the gap.
11.30 Portugal is preparing to present a fresh package of austerity measures to parliament, after backtracking on previous cuts following mass protests.
The new measures, which are expected to include several tax hikes, were given provisional approval yesterday by the European Commission.
Protests forced the government to shelve a proposal on increasing workers' social security payments, which would have cut wages by about 7pc.
Unemployment has become a rising problem in Portugal. The jobless rate has jumped by one percentage point to 15pc since the start of 2012.
10.32 One of Spain's biggest housebuilders has collapsed (hat tip to reader poitierslimoges for this).
Rivero y Soler - controlled by the Joaquín Rivero family and ally Bautista Soler, has presented one of the largest bankruptcy proceedings in Spanish corporate history, according to El Pais, with liabilities of €1.6bn.
Among the major creditors is state-owned RBS, for €212m, or 13pc of Rivero y Soler's total liabilities.
10.18 A report yesterday by the Financial Times has caused a bit of a stir this morning.
Under EU draft proposals seen by the pink 'un, eurozone countries would be required to to sign binding contracts with Brussels, in another step towards fiscal union that would increase the bloc’s control over national economic policies.
More from Alex Barker and Peter Spiegel:
The provision, included in a report distributed to EU countries before this month’s summit, would require all 17 eurozone members to sign on to the kinds of Brussels-approved policy programmes and timelines now negotiated only with bailout countries.
If adopted, the plan could help to meet demands in Germany for tighter control over the economies of highly indebted countries such as Italy and France that have a mixed record on economic reform.
The proposals reflect how far some EU leaders believe they need to overhaul the eurozone with more centralised decision-making. It is a shift that many policy makers conclude will require a wholesale change in EU treaties.
10.09 Eurozone retail sales ticked up in August, according to official data.
The 0.1pc monthly rise was largely driven by "food, drinks and tobacco,"Eurostat said. Non-food sales fell 0.7pc.
Across the EU, sales fell 0.1pc.
The highest increases were registered in Luxembourg (+2.9pc), Portugal (+2.8pc), Slovenia (+2.2pc) and Spain (+2.1pc), and the largest decreases in Poland (-1.3pc), Denmark (-1.1pc), France and Lithuania (both -0.8pc).
09.53 Spain's economy minister has outlined more details of the "bad bank" it plans to set up to take on the country's toxic property assets.
Luis de Guindos told parliament this morning that private investors would hold a majority stake in the vehicle (at least 55pc), with equity (equal to 10pc of the value of the bad bank's assets) to come from theFondo de reestructuración ordenada bancaria - or FROB - or bank buffer fund.
The full details will be published within days, Mr de Guindos added.
09.40 In Britain, the Markit/CIPS services PMI fell to 52.2 in September, from 53.7 in August. Markit said that "anecdotal evidence suggested an underlying improvement in demand and a post-Olympics boost to business activity."
However, the boost is likely to be minimal, as Chris Williamson at Markit explains:
The September service sector PMI adds to evidence to suggest that the UK economy barely expanded in the third quarter. GDP is likely to have grown by perhaps 0.1% as modest growth of services activity was offset by a slight drop in construction sector output and a steeper decline in manufacturing, according to the PMIs.
09.21 Markit's eurozone composite PMI (which includes services data) fell to 46.1 in September, from 46.3 in August.
Ireland remained the only country to report an increase in overall activity, with its rate of growth hitting a near one-and-a-half year high of 53.0 in September.
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
The final Eurozone PMI came in slightly higher than the flash estimate but still signalled one of the steepest monthly downturns seen over the past three years.
It seems inevitable that the region will have fallen back into recession in the third quarter. After falling by 0.2% in the second quarter, a steeper fall in output is likely for the third quarter.
Prospects do not look good due to cost cutting and rising redundancies. Although there were some signs of stabilisation in Germany, any hopes for optimism that the current downturn has bottomed out are tempered by news of steepening rates of contraction in France and Spain, and an ongoing severe downturn in Italy.
09.12 Europe's two largest economies are also struggling.
However, a flash estimate at the end of September had suggested the sector was back in growth territory (50.6). Markit said that there were signs of "fragile business sentiment across the service economy" in Germany last month.
In France, the PMI fell to 45, from 49.2 in August, as the rate of job cuts accelerated to the sharpest for 33 months.
Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit, said:
The French service sector sank further into contraction in September, mirroring the trend in manufacturing. The weak PMI data suggest it is highly unlikely that French GDP will have avoided slipping into decline in Q3. The disappointing news on business activity was accompanied by an accelerated rate of job cutting, which points to further labour market weakening following last week’s news that unemployment has risen above three million.
09.01 In Italy, the Markit/ADACI services PMI ticked up to 44.5 in September, from 44 in August. This still means the sector is contracting.
Markit also said this:
With workloads down further on the month and efforts to reduce costs continuing, Italian service providers shed staff again during September. Moreover, the rate of decline in employment accelerated to the fastest since the series record in June 2009.
08.52 Lots of data out this morning. After Monday's dismal manufacturing data, today's news on services isn't much better.
Markit's Spain services PMI fell to 40.2 in September, from 44 in August. This is well below the 50 level that divides growth from contraction, and represents the sharpest fall since November 2011.
Markit said that job cuts continued for a 55th - yes, 55th, straight month. The hotels and restaurants sector was the only sector that took on extra staff in September, Markit said.
Commenting on the data, Andrew Harker, economist at Markit, said:
The deterioration in the Spanish service sector intensified in September, with PMI data pointing to the sharpest drop in activity for almost a year. The rise in VAT added another hurdle for companies as they were less able to offer the sort of discounts required to support new business intakes. Taken alongside the manufacturing PMI data, the latest survey suggests that Spanish GDP looks set to have fallen for yet another quarter in Q3, with little prospect of improvement apparent in the near future.
Best from Before October 3rd .....
Meanwhile, foreign investment in Spanish debt has dropped 31.8% during the same period, standing at €191.836 billion euros, compared to €281.439 at the end of 2011.
This is the second consecutive time since 2008 that the debt in foreign hands is below the €200 billion.
Banks are now the main investor, ahead of foreigners, accumulating now 34.07% of the public debt, compared to 33.49% by foreign investors. This situation has not occurred since 2003.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
and a look at Italy's Five Star Movement .....
Tuesday, October 02, 2012 1:26 PM
Foreigners Dump €89.6 Billion Spanish Bonds; Spanish Bank Exposure Increases by €108.8 Billion
European banks are supposed to be deleveraging. By now, most realize they are headed the opposite direction. In Spain, the increased leverage is pro-cyclical, 100% certain to cause a bigger problem down the road.
Here is a Mish-modified translation of an El Economista article on Spanish Bond Purchases.
Financial institutions have become the main investor in Spanish government bonds after foreigners withdrawn €89.6 billion in the first eight months of the year, according to Treasury data.
In these eight months, Spanish exposure has risen €108.8 Billion, a record 106.84% increase.
Here is a Mish-modified translation of an El Economista article on Spanish Bond Purchases.
Financial institutions have become the main investor in Spanish government bonds after foreigners withdrawn €89.6 billion in the first eight months of the year, according to Treasury data.
In these eight months, Spanish exposure has risen €108.8 Billion, a record 106.84% increase.
This is the second consecutive time since 2008 that the debt in foreign hands is below the €200 billion.
Banks are now the main investor, ahead of foreigners, accumulating now 34.07% of the public debt, compared to 33.49% by foreign investors. This situation has not occurred since 2003.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
and a look at Italy's Five Star Movement .....
http://brucekrasting.com/on-politics-italian-and-american-style/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=on-politics-italian-and-american-style
On Politics, Italian and American Style
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9582524/Debt-crisis-troika-demand-even-tougher-austerity-on-stricken-Greece.html
On the second day of negotiations in Athens, the troika - officials representing the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - reportedly pushed for Greece to make deeper cuts to the minimum wage and pensions, while imposing longer working hours.
Greece, which this week warned its economy was heading for a sixth year of recession, has asked Brussels to relax the terms of its bail-out conditions to allow the economy time to recover. The troika is reviewing Greece’s progress on austerity measures and its 2013 draft Budget to determine whether to approve the release of the next tranche of bail-out money worth €31bn.
But with awkward timing, it emerged that Greece has “unblocked” €30bn in order to push ahead with its plans to building a motor-racing circuit capable of hosting Formula 1 Grand Prix. The total cost of constructing the track in Xalandritsa, near Patras, is expected to be €94.6m.
Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy firmly denied reports that the country was ready to request a full bail-out. At a press conference following a highly anticipated meeting with Spain’s rebellious regional heads, Mr Rajoy was asked if “a bail-out request is imminent”; to which he said: “No.”
Traders reacted badly having hoped the uncertainty over Spain would end soon. The US’s Dow Jones dropped immediately. Most European bourses closed marginally down, except Spain’s Ibex which climbed 1pc.