http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/frances-fiasco-one-fine-chart
( How long before France becomes Spain or Italy ? )
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2012 18:00 -0400
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/greek-crisis-juncker-hangs-samaras-out-to-dry/
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2012 09:35 -0400
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/31/1239081/greek-limbo-is-two-words-two/
and.....
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_30/10/2012_468024
Draft includes austerity measures totaling 9.2 billion euros and sees primary surplus of 0.5 pct of GDP
By Sotiris Nikas
The draft budget for 2013, which provides for measures of 9.2 billion euros, an economic contraction of 4.5 percent and a primary surplus of 0.5 percent, will be tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras at 11 a.m. on Wednesday.
The budget will have to get the House’s vote by November 11, as Greece’s international creditors have demanded its approval be brought forward as a condition for the disbursement of the next bailout tranche. The draft budget was originally scheduled to be tabled on November 20.
Along with the budget, the government will submit the updated midterm program as a separate chapter with a report about the measures that will have to be taken by 2016.
The rush to draft the 2013 budget meant that ministry officials had to work fast and only managed to complete the work concerning the main figures of the Greek economy on Tuesday. Sources say that the conclusion they reached last night was that the general government budget next year would have a surplus of between 0.4 and 0.6 percent of gross domestic product, while the economic contraction would go down to 4.5 percent from an estimated 6.6 percent of GDP this year.
These estimates are very different to the original ones in the first draft submitted on October 1 as well as to those included in the draft memorandum between Athens and its creditors; the recession estimates had ranged between 3.8 and 4.2 percent.
The Finance Ministry is therefore proceeding to its own estimates, which are closer to those of the country’s creditors but are not the same. Once the final text of the memorandum is ready, the two sides should be even closer. Whatever the case, the possibility of a supplementary budget in the first quarter of 2013 is highly likely if forecasts appear not to be realistic, as was the case earlier this year.
Besides the 9.2 billion euros of measures for 2013, the midterm program will also include measures for the period from 2014 to 2016, adding up to another 4.3 billion.
( How long before France becomes Spain or Italy ? )
France's Fiasco In One Fine Chart
Scanning the world, France ranks at or near the top in government transfers to households, vacation times and labor market rigidity, and at or near the bottom in hours worked per week, labor force participation rates and retirement age as a % of life expectancy. As JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, France is a workers's utopia - which is expensive to maintain - and sure enough four out of four of its main economic indicators are accelerating lower since Hollande's 'Deluge' began.
JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest's full Eye-On-The-Market PDF Here.
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/greek-crisis-juncker-hangs-samaras-out-to-dry/
GREEK CRISIS: Juncker hangs Samaras out to dry
Following close study of the Athens Government’s austerity proposals, Jean-Claude Juncker, Eurogroup president, had this to say in the last hour:
“The Eurogroup took note of the progress made towards a full staff level agreement between Greece and the Troika on updated programme conditionality, including ambitious and wide-ranging measures in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, privatisation and financial sector stabilisation. We called on the Greek authorities to solve remaining issues so as to swiftly finalise the negotiations with the Troika institutions.
The Eurogroup expects to further discuss the Greek adjustment programme at its next regular meeting on 12 November on the basis of the relevant programme documentation and seek to conclude on the programme, subject to the completion of prior actions by the Greek authorities and of national procedures in Member States, in line with the established practice.“
Basically, JCJ is batting the ball back at Samaras…..even though he knows the New Democracy leader has staked his political reputation on the Troika and FinMins accepting what Athens has achieved in terms of cuts and reforms. This is what Prime Minister Samaras said yesterday:
“Today we concluded negotiations over the measures and the budget. We did everything we could. We exhausted all the limits of pressure and time. We achieved significant improvements even in the final hour…..What would happen if the deal isn’t passed and the country is led to chaos? Such dangers must be avoided. That is the responsibility of each party and every lawmaker individually. Provided that the deal is approved and the budget is voted through, Greece will remain in the euro”.
But without that approval, the Prime Minister asserted, Greece would be forced out of the eurozone and into complete economic collapse.
Well, the agreement isn’t forthcoming. More measures are being demanded. So Antonis Samaras is left dangling over a sheer drop somewhere near the top of the Matterhorn.
It is really difficult in all this not to reach the conclusion that Berlin-am-Brussels intends quite simply to reduce Greece to the status of a socio-political basket case….the easier thereafter to neuter its sovereignty, and impose upon it economic demands that will leave the country little more than a slave satellite.
Having said that, there is absolutely no reason why the Greek Establishment has to go along with any of this bollocks. Athens has several other options – from Israel via America to Russia via Cyprus – and the EU itself knows only too well that, the last time a German delegation was in Beijing, the Chinese leadership made it abundantly clear that Grexit was an option upon which they would frown mightily.
Berlin-am-Brussels is bluffing. Alexis Tsipras seems the only leader capable of grasping this. Why can’t the others?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-31/greece-releases-another-budget-hilarity-ensues
Greece Releases Another Budget, Hilarity Ensues
If the just released 2013-2016 latest re-re-revised budget out of the Athens Finance Ministry (whose basement was forever memorialized in the following picture) is all Greek to you, it's because it is. But even it wasn't, it would still be absolute gibberish and yet another failed study in the 'analysis' of animal entrails in order to predict the future. Why? We have extracted merely one data series: the brand new debt/GDP (ignoring for a second the -4.5% 2013 GDP forecast - already 0.5% worse than the just released IMF forecast for Greece for the same period and certainly worse than the May forecast of 2013 "growth"), and have compared it to the Debt/GDP "forecast" as ofMay 2010, when the first Greek bailout was announced. The numbers speak for themselves.
... Just a tad different, especially 2014, where the original forecast saw a declining debt/GDP of 144.3%, and now, two year later, this number is supposed to peak at 191.6%. Of course, in two years, when 2014 is a historical, the real number will have a 3 handle (and be triple digits for those confused).
The balance of the forecasts:
Obviously the numbers above are absolute bullshit.
Instead of commenting further, here is what we said back in May 2010, when the tradition of buying Greece on the forecasts was launched:
Greece just got bailed out so it can get into even more debt! What psychopath of the Keynesian school thinks that this unbelievable trajectory is anything but a complete and utter waste of money? German, and US taxpayers, are merely giving Greece money so it can increase it debtor status with French and a few other European banks. To say that this is a viable solution is something that only those who bow at the altar of Alan Greenspan can do.Nearly three year later, and once again, spot on.Finally, for those confused why Greece will never, ever be fixed until it is finally kicked out of the sinking European Titanic, here it is again: a picture of the interior of the Greek Finance Ministry:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/10/31/1239081/greek-limbo-is-two-words-two/
So, the Greek government has left this latest, very long, round of eurozone marriage counselling to head into, well, predictable domestic acrimony with headlines like “Crucial Test for Greek Coalition” trailing in its wake. From the ekathimerini:
“We did everything we could. We achieved significant improvements,” noting that Greece would remain in the euro if the package was passed and otherwise risked “descending into chaos.” “It is now down to the sense of responsibility of all political parties and each individual MP,” Samaras said.Democratic Left issued a rejection within minutes, saying it does not agree with the outcome of negotiations with troika and repeating its objection to labor reforms.
JP Morgan’s Alex White points out that the next few weeks are going to be critical and that this one is likely going to the wire… again.
He thinks three key questions are set to define Greece’s immediate future (for the record, he is optimistic that the answer to each will be ‘yes’ but not without difficulty):
i) Immediate-term: Can the Government hold together on the basis of the Troika agreement?ii) Next week: Can it secure parliamentary ratification of the package?iii) November: Can the Troika provide enough support to plug the long-term fiscal hole?White on point one, writing on Tuesday (our emphasis):Greece has only been able to reach the current point of cautious agreement with the Troika after enormous behind the scenes pressure. Effectively it appears as though Greece’s partners put a time-limit on negotiations last week by insisting on agreement before the Eurogroup call which will take place tomorrow. Whether consciously or not, Prime Minister Samaras has effectively given the impression that the Greek Government was forced to give up the fight; arguing that ‘we did the best that we could’. The rest of his coalition has distanced itself from him, with DIMAR reiterating its view that the package is inappropriate for Greece, and that it will vote against labour market reform measures. PASOK has gone further, suggesting that it didn’t think negotiations were actually over. The party has effectively accused Samaras of abandoning his post and ‘undermining’ the country. This is political posturing – we don’t expect either PASOK or DIMAR to walk out of Government – but it takes place in a dangerous environment (PASOK’s support is essential to passing any measures). It may well have been politically impossible for the Troika to give Greece much more leeway on time or content, but the push for labour market reforms (and Samaras’ rather resigned presentation of the agreement) is leading to a clear backlash within the Greek Government itself. This will make it harder to sell the package to parliament, although we do expect the coalition to hold together.
On point two, the good news is that, as the FT said, even if all 16 members of the Democratic Left (aka “DIMAR” in the above) fail to back the package at next month’s vote, the government would still be able to push it through parliament as the two other coalition partners, Mr Samaras’s centre-right New Democracy party and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement, or Pasok, as together they control 160 out of 300 seats.According to Reuters, an overwhelming majority of Pasok’s legislators have agreed to vote in favour of contested austerity reforms.But White thinks the risk are underappreciated:We see a roughly 10-15% chance of the package failing to pass the Greek parliament when it is voted on next week (likely Wednesday). In part this will depend on whether the fiscal provisions are voted on with the labour market reforms or separately. The coalition has 176 seats, and needs 151 votes to pass the measures. DIMAR – with 16 seats – will not vote for the labour market reforms, but could be persuaded to vote for the fiscal measures, although the Government is planning to combine the two (the Troika wants to see across the board support). If DIMAR votes no on any measure, a defection by 10 or more backbench MPs from PASOK or ND could see the package fail. We think this is unlikely, but believe the vote will be relatively close, especially if the measures are packaged together as currently planned. There are significant concerns in the leadership of both ND and PASOK about how some of their MPs may move. We think the risks here are under-appreciated;Lastly, on negotiating the fiscal path:Assuming that the measures are carried in parliament (as we expect), the Eurogroup should be able to move forward towards disbursement of the next €31.5bn of support from the Troika. This will be predicated on making progress on the issue of Greece’s long-term debt sustainability, where agreement still has yet to be reached. The German Government is not yet ready to agree to major restructuring or OSI in the near-term, and the likely alternative will be bridging measures to help Greece through the next year. We think these could include an interest rate repayment holiday, a further recalibration of the bank support package or forebearance on short-term issuance (the latter is less likely). All of these approaches would present significant difficulties, although we think that Greece’s likely funding gap, in the region of €25bn, can be addressed through a combination of measures. Merkel and Lagarde have spoken recently to discuss the possible approaches that could be taken, although it is unclear what agreement – if any – has been reached.And, while we quite like White here at FTAV, we’re not totally sure we can forgive his use of the term “Grimbo” — Greek Limbo — no matter how apposite it may be. To be honest, we were expecting more of a Halloween theme.
and.....
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_30/10/2012_468024
Budget provides for 4.5 pct contraction
Draft includes austerity measures totaling 9.2 billion euros and sees primary surplus of 0.5 pct of GDP
 |
The draft budget for 2013, which provides for measures of 9.2 billion euros, an economic contraction of 4.5 percent and a primary surplus of 0.5 percent, will be tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras at 11 a.m. on Wednesday.
The budget will have to get the House’s vote by November 11, as Greece’s international creditors have demanded its approval be brought forward as a condition for the disbursement of the next bailout tranche. The draft budget was originally scheduled to be tabled on November 20.
Along with the budget, the government will submit the updated midterm program as a separate chapter with a report about the measures that will have to be taken by 2016.
The rush to draft the 2013 budget meant that ministry officials had to work fast and only managed to complete the work concerning the main figures of the Greek economy on Tuesday. Sources say that the conclusion they reached last night was that the general government budget next year would have a surplus of between 0.4 and 0.6 percent of gross domestic product, while the economic contraction would go down to 4.5 percent from an estimated 6.6 percent of GDP this year.
These estimates are very different to the original ones in the first draft submitted on October 1 as well as to those included in the draft memorandum between Athens and its creditors; the recession estimates had ranged between 3.8 and 4.2 percent.
The Finance Ministry is therefore proceeding to its own estimates, which are closer to those of the country’s creditors but are not the same. Once the final text of the memorandum is ready, the two sides should be even closer. Whatever the case, the possibility of a supplementary budget in the first quarter of 2013 is highly likely if forecasts appear not to be realistic, as was the case earlier this year.
Besides the 9.2 billion euros of measures for 2013, the midterm program will also include measures for the period from 2014 to 2016, adding up to another 4.3 billion.
After the draft budget is tabled on Wednesday morning, Stournaras will participate in the Eurogroup’s conference call.
and......
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_30/10/2012_468004
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