http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4211/weekend-review

Weekend Review

Saturday, September 22, 2012 at 12:16 pm

What an interesting week. Instead of volatility, we got containment and flatlines. Something tells me next week won't be the same.

Ponder this for a moment, QE∞ is announced as official Fed policy last Thursday. That day gold, the only alternative currency to steadily-debasing fiat, responds with a $38 move. Frankly, I would have expected more but, given the Cartel propensity for containing daily moves at either the +1% or +2% levels, $38 seemed about right. However, over the next five days, would you have expected this?

Friday, 9/14: net change +$0.60
Monday, 9/17: -$2.10
Tuesday, 9/18: +$0.60
Wednesday 9/19: +$0.50
Thursday 9/20: -$1.50

So, cumulatively over the next five days trading in gold, immediately following the long-awaited announcement of QE∞, the total change was down $1.90. Huh?? And, again, it's not like we saw the +$20, -$22, +$31 kind of volatility you would have expected. Very strange and, once again, subtle evidence of the outright blatant and ongoing manipulation and "managed ascent" of the paper price by The Gold Bullion Banking Cartel.

To no one's surprise, this week's CoT continued the trend of Cartel naked short issuance to contain price. Again, I'm not really sure who wrote the mandate that JPM, DB et al have to act as market makers in the metals but, for some reason, that is the role they allege to play. Spec money comes into the pit and the banks issue the highly-leveraged paper. Not content to see price bid up as the spec bids search for willing sellers of existing contracts, The Cartel, instead, simply issues brand new contracts to satisfy demand.

In doing so, The Gold Cartel added another 18,196 short contracts this week and brought their net short ratio back up to an astonishingly dangerous (to them) 2.68:1. Why is this so dangerous, you ask? Because they are continuing to play this game as if none of the fundamentals have changed. This is no longer 2002 or 2008. It's not even 2011. We are near The End Game for fiat currency and the "creditor nations" around the globe recognize this. The are readily exchanging their rapidly-devaluing fiat for hard assets, gold in particular. This insatiable physical demand underpins the paper market and makes precipitous, short-covering drops, like we've seen The Cartel execute in the past, all but impossible. Oh sure, there will still be selloffs and beatdowns...Heck, we saw one yesterday...but incessant physical demand forces The Cartel to quickly turn tail and buy in order to cover and secure the metal required to meet the allocations sought at every London fix.

So, again, look to buy the dips. Not every $5 dip, mind you, but any substantial dip the pushes price back to obvious support points. Right now, the obvious area is around $1755-1760. IF a dip develops early next week, I'll be all over it. Gold looks certain to soon blast through $1780 and then $1800. From there, I expect a rapid move toward the old all-time highs of $1920. At that point, gold could, once again, get disorderly to the upside, similar to what we saw in August of 2011. It will likely break out and UP through the long-term channel again and head toward and through $2000.

And here is a long-term chart of gold priced in euros. Recall that we've been discussing for weeks how euro/gold was getting well ahead of dollar/gold and that dollar gold would eventually catch up. A month ago, euro/gold was showing that $1800 gold was coming. Now, euro gold makes it look like $1920 gold is only about a month away. (Chart courtesy Trader Dan:http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/09/euro-gold-on-track-for-all-time-high.html)

And JPM and their pals continue to play games with silver, blissfully unaware that their dynasty has ended. Just last week, they added another 2,880 short contracts in a vain attempt to pin price below $35 and protect the vulnerable buy-stops near $35.50 that, if tripped, would send silver quickly toward $37.50. Oh well, screw 'em. So they "won" this week. Whatever. They're just going to lose eventually so what's another week of waiting. Now at a total gross short position of 82,358 contracts and a net short ratio of 2.58:1, The Silver Cartel is sitting on a powderkeg of their making. Boy is it ever going to be fun to watch it explode right under them.

As The Doc pointed out yesterday, The Forces of Darkness expended a lot of ammunition yesterday in a desperate attempt to start a cascade and keep price under $35. (http://www.silverdoctors.com/cartel-dumped-2x-annual-us-silver-production-on-market-in-15-min-to-smash-silver-under-35/) They now find themselves in a bit of a jam as we head into Tuesday. They'll need to cover quite a few contracts before the 1:25 EDT close that day or they risk showing their footprints on next week's CoT. What will they do? Cover, of course! Now the question is, will they gamble by raiding first and hoping for a steep enough selloff that they can cover the raid "material" and more on the way back up? Maybe but I doubt it. Physical demand will easily blunt the dip again just as it did yesterday. Their only logical choice, after being thwarted yesterday, is to begin to cover yesterday's new shorts as early as Monday, otherwise they risk a significantly "Happy Tuesday" that blows out those $35.50-area buy stops and send price toward $37+. What to do, what to do. A whole lot of choices, all of them bad. HAHAHAHAHA! You did this to yourselves, you arrogant bastards, and now you're stuck. You'll get no sympathy around here.

And in case the action in crude this week left you feeling that global peace and harmony were right around the corner, I give you this to ponder: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-22/head-irans-revolutionary-guards-war-israel-will-occur

In that same vein, I was contacted this week by a nice guy who asked me to link a few of his prepping articles. I certainly hope you are using this time to full consider these topics:http://destinysurvival.com/2012/09/03/food-storage-how-to-calculate-for-your-needs/ &http://www.emergencyfoodstorage101.com/2012/08/07/being-prepared-for-power-outages/. Of course (shameless plug coming), you can find many of these items by visiting the Turdmart, a link to which is conveniently placed at the top of each page but copied below for your convenience.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/preparation-store

I hope that everyone has a safe, fun and relaxing weekend. Come back on Monday and be prepared for a week that is considerably more volatile and interesting than this past one was.

and....

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/09/21/qe3-to-infinitythe-final-end-game/

QE3 To Infinity–The Final End Game

September 21, 2012, at 2:30 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |

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My Dear Extended Family,

The final end game of QE3 to infinity, with a month or two off from time to time, will be a product of the long term viability of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet and the impact on the dollar there from.

Let’s review what has transpired and begin to look at what will happen:

1. OTC derivative manufacturers and distributors sold fraudulent paper to almost every entity as clients of the Western world financial system. Inherently the OTC derivatives manufacturers and distributors had part of the transaction on their books. No problem as long as the entire scam was a "Daisy Chain," a connected set of transactions that has the appearance of risk but when all netted out equals almost zero.

2. Until Lehman was flushed, and flushed it was, most all OTC derivatives could have been netted to zero in a derivative resurrection bank. Losers would have rejoiced and winners would have declared war. However when Lehman was forced into bankruptcy it broke the "Daisy Chain" (a chain of near risk-less transactions when netted) of the OTC derivatives scam. At this point winners had won huge and loser had lost huge and there was no longer a means of repair to the quadrillion dollar scam. The problem has no practical solution other than transferring all losing paper to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve where then it was anticipated no non-government "mark to market" audit would ever occur. It was the perfect hole to stick the junk into.

3. The size of the OTC derivative market stood at one quadrillion one hundred and forty four trillion as reported by the Bank of International Settlement, the counter internationally.

4. The Bank of international Settlements, seeing this outrageous number, changed their computer method of valuation to maturity assuming no failures and reduced the size of OTC derivatives of all kinds to a more acceptable but still huge number of $700 trillion notional value.

5. In the first and second round of QE the Federal reserve purchased OTC derivatives including the variety called securitized mortgage debt to remove them from the balance sheets of the Western world financial system, thereby improving the Western world’s financial institutions balance sheet and preventing an international industry wide bankruptcy. That means the Federal Reserve has impaired its balance sheet in order to repair some of the balance sheet integrity of the Western world financial system. The amount they have purchased is significant, but not compared to total outstanding above more than one quadrillion dollars.

6. The reason for QE to infinity, QE3, is the failure of business activity in the Western world to pick up with early huge monetary stimulation so as to repair the balance sheet of the Western financial world financial system. The unseen crisis is the hidden weakness of the Western world financial system thanks to FASB (The gatekeepers of world accounting) which allows financial institutions internationally to hide their losses by valuing their paper at whatever the bank wants it to be with no reference to seek a market value, primarily because there is none to seek.

7. The crisis not seen by Fed observers is the true balance sheet condition of the loses on the trillions of dollar of worth-less paper fraudulent paper because numbers are given but no independent mark to market audit has been or is likely performed.

8. As QE3 to infinity moves ahead, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve continues to acquire worthless paper in exchange for dollars. Junk moved onto the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve as the common share of the USA, the US dollar, continues to expand exponentially.

9. The end game problem is an extended recessionary business conditions going into 2015 to 2017 wherein the supply of dollars continually expands, the US Federal Deficit grows, US state deficit spending continues to grow and the quality of the Federal Reserve balance sheet proceeds to deteriorate further.

Therefore the end game is the perception of the weakness of the lender of last resort, the Federal Reserve’s Balance sheet, as it impacts confidence the US dollar and US interest rates.

Now you know what brings about the end game.

In the future I will do small simple articles dealing with the impact on markets of a to be Bankrupt Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve. The end game could come sooner, but only if there was an independent "mark to market" audit of the Federal Reserve inventory of worthless paper which remains unlikely no matter who wins the election in November.

Those of you invested in gold and silver vehicles of all kinds (with the exception of ETFs and futures) rest well this weekend. $3500 will easily be a place gold trades. The Canadian dollar and blasphemy to the euro snobs, the Swiss franc, remain go to vehicles for cash positions. Yes cash because you to not have to pay to own them as you do with a sovereign paper with negative interest.

Your watchman,
Jim

and Ed Steer's missive from today......

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/bart-chilton-silver-market-investigation-statement-coming-soon

Bart Chilton: Silver Market Investigation Statement Coming Soon

Sep

"I'm still as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs about what JPMorgan et al will do in the very short term"

¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER

The gold price chopped and flopped around through all of Far East and most of early London trading yesterday...and was up about five bucks by lunchtime in London. Then, about ten minutes before Comex trading began in New York, a rally of some significance got underway.
That rally got capped in less than an hour...and from there the price traded more or less sideways until a not-for-profit seller showed up at 10:40 a.m. Eastern time...and thirty minutes later, the gold price was back below where the rally had started. The subsequent rally petered out...and the price drifted lower from there, before trading sideways from 2:30 p.m. Eastern time onwards into the electronic close.
Gold closed the Friday trading day at $1,773.00 spot...up $4.50 from Thursday's close. Volume was sky high at 195,000 contracts.

It was precisely the same story in silver at precisely the same times, except for the sell-off that came at 10:40 a.m. Eastern time. The not-for-profit seller had silver down almost a dollar in less than ten minutes. After that pounding was over, silver traded in the same pattern as gold into the 5:15 p.m. Eastern time electronic close.
Silver's high around 9:00 a.m. Eastern time was $35.32 spot...and the low around 10:45 a.m. was $34.23 spot.
The silver price, which had been up 66 cents at one point, closed on Friday at $34.52 spot...down 12 cents on the day. Volume was monstrous at 68,000 contracts.

Here's the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own so you can see the stunning waterfall decline in much greater detail.

A mini-version of that happened in platinum as well...but there was no sign of it all inpalladium. These rallies/price smashes were gold and silver specific...and the 10:40 a.m. price declines were as far away from free-market price action as you can get.
The dollar index moved mostly lower in Far East, London and early trading in New York. The two low price ticks...just above 79.05...coming at precisely 10:00 a.m. in London and precisely 9:00 a.m. in New York. After the second low, the index rallied about 32 basis points and finished the Friday trading session basically unchanged from Thursday's close, at 79.39.
It only takes a cursory glance to see that there was no co-relation between gold and silver prices...and the dollar index...during the New York trading session.

Not surprisingly, the gold stocks gapped up strongly at the open...and headed lower from there. They went slightly negative when gold got hit...but bounced back into positive territory immediately...and stayed there for the rest of the day. The HUI finished up 0.64%.

Despite the fact that silver finished down on the day, the silver stocks that mattered, did pretty well for themselves...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.99%.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 24 gold and 222 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Tuesday within the Comex-approved depositories. The short/issuer turned out to be none other than Deutsche Bank with all 222 contracts. These contracts will be received by seven different long/stoppers. Most will be delivered to JPMorgan, the Bank of Nova Scotia...and Jefferies. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth a peek.
There was a really big deposit into the GLD ETF, as an authorized participant added 300,538 troy ounces yesterday. There were no reported changes in SLV.
Nick Laird informed me that Sprott's Physical Silver Trust [PSLV] added another 285,000 ounces to their fund yesterday.
The U.S. Mint had another sales report. They sold 6,500 ounces of gold eagles...500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 314,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 45,000 ounces of gold eagles...7,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 2,275,000 silver eagles. It's been a pretty decent sales month so far...and there are still five business days left.
It was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories on Thursday. They reported receiving 627,405 troy ounces of silver...and shipped a very chunky 1,516,525 troy ounces out the door. The link to that activity is here.
As expected, it was another pretty unhappy looking Commitment of Traders Reportyesterday. In silver, the Commercial traders increased their net short position by another 3,202 contracts, or 16.0 million ounces and, according to Ted Butler, about 2,500 of that was Morgan.
The Commercial net short position currently stands at 252.4 million ounces of silver and, according to Ted, JPMorgan is currently short 147.5 million ounces of silver all by itself. JPMorgan's holdings represents 58.4% of the Commercial net short position in silver...and dare I mention that JPM holds short 28.5% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis.

The 'Big 4' traders...including JPMorgan...are short 44.7% of the entire Comex futures market in silver on a net basis...and the '5 through 8' largest traders are short an additional 8.8 percentage points. As a group, the 'Big 8' short holders hold short 53.5% of the Comex silver futures market on a net basis...and that's a minimum number.
In gold, the Commercial net short position increased by 1,254,200 troy ounces...and now stands at 24.96 million ounces of gold.
Ted says that it was all the 'Big 4'..as they increased their short position by about 1.65 million ounces...and the '5 through 8' and the raptors didn't do much.
As of the Tuesday cut-off, the 'Big 4' traders on the short side are short 14.36 million ounces of gold...and the '5 through 8' traders are short an additional 5.36 million ounces...for a total of 19.72 million ounces held short by the 'Big 8' traders.
As a percentage of the Comex gold market on a net basis, the 'Big 4' are short 31.9%...and the '5 through 8' are short an additional 11.9 percentage points. So, altogether, the 'Big 8' traders are short 43.8% of the Comex gold market on a net basis and, once again, those are minimum numbers.
Reader E.W.F. pointed out in his weekly e-mail to me yesterday that..."The non-reportable gold traders (small speculators) hold their largest net long position since February 4, 2002."
Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Contracts" updated with Tuesday's COT data...

* * *

Doug Noland: Credit Bubble Bulletin - Z1, QE3 and Deleveraging

"Our economic structure certainly enjoys unmatched capacity to absorb Credit excess without engendering traditional consumer price inflation. Yet there is indeed a huge problem that no one seems to want to recognize: Our system also has an unprecedented capacity to expand Credit that is backed by little in the way of wealth-creating capacity. Our government literally throws Trillions at the economy – Credit that inflates incomes and sustains consumption and elevates asset prices. The downside of this economic miracle is that, at the end of the day, there’s little left to show for the whole exercise except for an ever-expanding mountain of suspect financial claims. Moreover, market values of these claims are sustained only by the unrelenting expansion of additional claims/Credit. This is Minsky’s “Ponzi Finance” at a systemic level."
Doug's 'big picture' view of the world's credit markets are always worth reading...and his missive from yesterday certainly falls into that category. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

Debt Relief: Lenders Reportedly Consider New Greek Haircut

In order to restore the country's debt sustainability, Greece's lenders are reportedly considering further relief in the form of a partial debt haircut for the crisis-wracked country, the Financial Times Deutschland reported on Friday.
Citing unnamed "euro-zone sources," the paper said the focus was on bilateral loans from the currency union's first bailout program for the country, the nearly €53-billion ($69 billion) Greek Loan Facility, which ran from May 2010 to the end of 2011. "There is a discussion," a high-level official told the paper.
Martin Blessing, chairman of Germany's second-largest bank, Commerzbank, has also said a second debt haircut is likely. "In the end we will see another debt haircut for Greece, in which all creditors will take part," he said on Thursday in Frankfurt.
Sooner or later, all the world's debt will disappear...either by hyperinflation or by default. This story appeared on the German website spiegel.deyesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for his first offering of the day. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

Turkish Public Sours on Syrian Uprising

As the war in Syria rages next door, Turks have grown increasingly weary of nearly daily reports of troubles at home: Iranian spies working with Kurdish insurgents, soldiers ambushed and killed, millions spent caring for a flood of refugees, lost trade and havoc in border villages.

“This is how we start our morning,” Mehment Krasuleymanoglu, a bookseller in a narrow alley in central Istanbul, said recently as he laid out several newspapers, each with a blaring headline about an explosion at a munitions depot that killed more than two dozen soldiers. The government called it an accident, but in the current environment, many Turks, including Mr. Krasuleymanoglu, are not so sure.

“What do we have to do with Syria?” he said. “The prime minister and his wife used to go there for tea and coffee.”

The Turkish government is facing a spasm of reproach from its own people over its policy of supporting Syria’s uprising; hosting fighters in the south, opposition figures in Istanbul and refugees on the border; and helping to ferry arms to the opposition. While many Turks at first supported the policy as a stand for democracy and change, many now believe that it is leading to instability at home, undermining Turkey’s own economy and security.

This is another story from the Tuesday edition of The New York Times...another offering from Roy Stephens...and another must read for all students of the "New Great Game". The link is here.

View full GSD edition

U.S. Says Disputed Islands Covered by Japan Defense Treaty

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said islands at the heart of a dispute between Japan and China fall under an American defense pact with Japan, while urging the sides to resolve the standoff via diplomacy.
“We want to focus more on issues associated with the maintenance of peace and stability and less on the particular details of this very complex and challenging matter,” Campbell told a hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s East Asian and Pacific Affairs subcommittee yesterday. He said the islands fall under a treaty which obligates the U.S. to defend Japan if it’s attacked.
The U.S. doesn’t take a position on the sovereignty of the islands, known as Diaoyu in Chinese and Senkaku in Japanese, Campbell said. His comments echoed those of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said in 2010 that the islands fall under “mutual treaty obligations” with the Japan government.
This Bloomberg story was filed from Beijing early yesterday morning...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for finding it for us. The link is here.

View full GSD edition

RBI to issue gold sovereign bonds to strengthen rupee

The Reserve Bank of India is planning to set up a panel to suggest a roadmap to tap into India's gold holdings reports CNBC-TV18's Siddharth Zarabi.

RBI and the finance ministry have discussed various possibilities and are considering four different instruments. India's gold holdings exceed 18,000 tonnes and have a market value of over $900 billion.

Gold bonds would help in reducing the weakness of the rupee.

The panel is expected to present its report in a couple of weeks.
These four short paragraphs are all there is to this story posted over at thefirstpost.com Internet site on Thursday evening India Standard Time. We'll find out pretty quick whether the RBI is serious, or just setting up another scam. I thank Mumbai reader Avinash Raheja for bringing this story to my attention...and now to yours. The link to the hard copy is here.

View full GSD edition

Warren James: SLV Database 3

There is nobody on Planet Earth that keeps closer track of what's going on inSLV than Warren James. His work is nothing short of amazing...and that certainly includes what he's got to say in his latest commentary over atscrewtapefiles.blogspot.com.au. I thank Nick Laird for bringing this to my attention...and the link is here.
Warren's twice-weekly analysis of SLV's bullion inventory is linked here...and it's worth following.

View full GSD edition

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2012

The Spanish bailout conditions revealed: Pension freeze and retirement age hike/ Greek municipality runs out of cash/ Pakistan rioting on the streets/

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold closed up to the tune of $8.00 to finish the week at $1775.70. Silver on the other hand was victim of a vicious and blatant manipulation which forced it to tumble in price before finally recovering. It finished down
5 cents to $34.57.

Gold and silver yesterday morning were on a tear when at precisely 10:50 am est (safely after the second London fix) silver was whacked from its zenith at $35.10 all the way down to $34.20. Gold initially held still for a few minutes and then it joined it's cousin in a waterfall only to recover all of its gains and then go positive for the rest of the session. I emailed the CFTC at approximately 11 am signaling to them the blatant manipulation that was upon us. The media was looking for excuses as to why gold and silver was initially on a tear and then bang at 10:50 am est proceeded to tank.

The following story was highlighted by them:

(courtesy zero hedge)

According To The Knee-Jerk Market, South Africa Mines Silver

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2012 11:08 -0400

default

Ray Dalio

Moments ago, a stray headline crossing Bloomberg was the catalyst for violent selling across the precious metal complex. The headline in question is this:

SOUTH AFRICA GOLD PRODUCERS TO CONSIDER BRINGING FWD WAGE TALKS

The reason for the puke in PMs is the goalseeked as follows: since miners are willing to negotiate wage hikes, the miner strike may soon be over. Well, they said that last week, when the Lonmin Maricana mine strike ended. All that happened next was for every other miner in South Africa to demand equitable terms, making the strike even worse than before. What it will mean, if indeed passed, is that a broad swath of PM miners will face default sooner rather than later, as they will be completely unable to pass on 20% cost surges to consumers, and many will file for bankruptcy sending capacity far lower in the long-run than currently, even with the mine strike. What is most funny, however, is the response in silver, which plunged in sympathy with gold and platinum as can be seen on the chart below.

There is one tiny detail: please point out in the table below of the world's largest 20 producers of silver, just where is South Africa.

We can wait.

Actually don't bother: it's not there. All that is there is a hearsay goalseeked flawed justification to enact a sell off of what everyone, even Ray Dalio, except for the Chairsatan and the Octogenarian of Omaha of course, now realizes will be the only money left once global QEternity is over and done with.

* * *

There is only one problem with the South Africa story and that is the fact that South Africa produces hardly any silver so the miner's agreement should have no effect on the silver metal's price.

The real reason for the attack:

I will bet that the rise in silver for the past few weeks have been monstrous and probably set off huge internal derivative losses on JPMorgan's books. The margin calls were probably coming fast and furious and thus a reason for the massive raid. It failed again as demand for physical metals is simply overpowering the commercial paper shorting. JPMorgan will have another of those weekend retreat meetings trying to figure out next how to escape from their massive shortfall dilemma.

In other news, we finally get to hear the conditions for the Spanish bailout and it will not be pretty for them. Part of the reforms are the raising of the retirement age as well as pension freezing. The citizens will not like this and we will for sure see rioting on the streets. Also a Greek municipality ran out of cash as they could not pay their workers. The Arab fall continues with rioting on the streets of Pakistan. As for QEIII, many stories are provided to you showing what devastation will strike us. We will go over all of these stories but first.....

* * *

Let us now head over to the comex as assess trading on Friday.

The total comex gold OI rose by 1108 contracts from 481,999 up to a new multi-year high of 483,107 as the bankers fearlessly supplied the non backed gold paper to our eager speculator funds. The non active September contract saw it's OI fall from 47 to 28 for a loss of 19 contracts. We had 13 delivery notices on Friday so we lost 6 contracts or 600 oz of gold standing. We are exactly one week away from first day notice (Sept 28.2012). The active October contract saw its OI marginally decline by only 785 contracts from 22,576 to 21,791. October is generally a very poor delivery month. It seems that all eyes will be focused on the big December contract month where the OI rose by 315 contracts from 333,772 up to 334,087 contracts. The estimated volume at the gold comex on Friday was very good at 186,968. The confirmed volume on Thursday was fair at 156,080.

The total silver OI continues to baffle our bankers. On Friday, the OI rose by another 761 contracts to a new multi year high of 126,769 contracts from Thursday's level of 126,008. The bankers are frightened that the OI refuses to contract during raids as long speculators seem intent on playing with the crooks. The active September contract saw its OI rise by 15 contracts from 480 to 495. We had 3 delivery notices filed on Thursday so in essence we gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz of silver is standing. The October contract saw it's OI rise by 6 contracts to 203. The big December contract saw it's OI rise by 1090 contracts from 80,920 up to 82,010. The high OI in December is of great concern to our bankers.
The estimated volume at the silver comex on Friday came in very high at 61,896 with the confirmed volume on Thursday at 49,421.

* * *

Today, we had sizable activity inside the gold vaults today.
we had the following dealer deposit

1. Into Brinks: 2,999.80 oz

we had no customer deposit.

We had the following customer withdrawal:

i) out of HSBC: 71,359.768 oz

we had no adjustments.
Thus the dealer inventory rests this weekend at 2.523 million oz or 78.38 tonnes of gold.

The CME reported that we had only 2 delivery notices for 200 oz of gold. The total number of notices filed so far this month total 737 for 73,700 oz. To obtain what is left to be served upon, I take the OI standing for September (28) and subtract out Friday's delivery notices (2) which leaves us with 26 notices or 2600 oz of gold to be served upon our anxious longs.

Again, we had considerable activity inside the silver vaults today.
However we had no dealer deposit and no dealer withdrawal.

The customer had the following deposit:

i) 627,405.411 oz into Delaware

We had the following customer withdrawal:

i) Out of Brinks: 111,619.10
ii) Out of HSBC: 1,404,906.683 oz (HSBC)

total withdrawal: 1,516,525.783 oz

note: everyday we see massive movements of silver out of registered comex vaults.

we had no adjustments.
Thus the registered or dealer inventory for silver rests this weekend at 39.449 million oz

The total of all silver rests at 139.984 million oz.

The CME notified us that we had zero notices filed and thus the total number of notices filed this month remain at 1335 for 6,675,000 oz. To obtain what is left to be filed upon, I take the OI standing for September (495) and subtract out Friday's notices (0) which leaves us with 495 or 2,475,000 oz left to be served upon our longs.

* * *

Gold COT Report - Futures
Large Speculators			Commercial		Total
Long	Short	Spreading	Long	Short	Long	Short
224,988	33,873	27,931	148,802	398,435	401,721	460,239
Change from Prior Reporting Period
10,585	1,486	-136	5,654	18,196	16,103	19,546
Traders
216	57	72	45	50	289	159

	Small Speculators
	Long	Short	Open Interest
	76,888	18,370	478,609
	1,975	-1,468	18,078
	non reportable positions		Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report - Positions as of				Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Quite a report!!!

Our large speculators:

Those large specs that have been long in gold loved what they saw with respect to QEIII etc and they added a monstrous 10,585 contracts to their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in gold somehow misread the tea-leaves and added another 1486 contracts to their short side and this weekend they are in mourning!

Our commercials:

Those commercials that have been long in gold and are also close to the physical scene, added 5,654 contracts to their long side. Ted Butler refers to these guys are "raptors"

And now for our famous commercials that have been perennially short in gold;

Our heroes (JPMorgan and company) added another monstrous 18,196 contracts to their short side setting up conditions for the Battle of Waterloo. All of the bankers short have no gold behind them.

Our small specs:

Our small specs that have been long in gold added another 1975 contracts to their long side and tonight they are happy campers.

Our small specs:

They saw the light and covered 1468 contracts from their short side.

Conclusion: With respect to only the bankers, you must view this report as extremely bearish as the commercials went net short another 12,542 contracts.

Our silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators			Commercial
Long	Short	Spreading	Long	Short
43,205	10,650	23,977	31,884	82,358
1,834	761	1,765	-322	2,880
Traders
80	39	42	34	40
Small Speculators		Open Interest		Total
Long	Short	127,032		Long	Short
27,966	10,047			99,066	116,985
2,705	576	5,982		3,277	5,406
non reportable positions		Positions as of:		136	104
		Tuesday, September 18, 2012		© SilverSeek.com

You can visually see the difference between the Gold COT report and the Silver COT with respect to the mood of the bankers.

First let us have a look at our large speculators:

Our large specs that have been long in silver realized that silver was about to pierce the 32.00 level and thus they added another 1834 contracts to their long side.

Those small specs that have been short in silver thought that silver was advancing too fast so they added another 761 contracts to their short side and these guys are not happy campers this weekend.

Our commercials;

Those commercials that are long in silver and are close to the physical scene pitched a small 322 contracts from their long side.

And now for our famous commercials shorts i.e. JPMorgan et al:

These guys reluctantly added another 2880 contracts to their already burgeoning short position.
They have decided to regroup and call for one of those weekend meetings trying to stop silver's advance.

Our small specs;

Our small specs that have been long in silver liked what they saw and they added a rather large 2705 contracts to their long side.

Our small specs that have been short in silver, added another 576 contracts to their short side and they too are not happy this weekend.

Conclusion: Only with respect to the commercials who basically decide where the price of silver will be heading, went net short another 3202 contracts and you must say that this is terribly bearish.
You can count on a gold and silver raid sometime next week.

* * *

Late in the day, Bart Chilton announced that the CFTC is wrapping up "its investigation" on the silver scandal with respect to JPMorgan and expects something in the "near future"

I have my doubts on this one

(courtesy Kitco news)

CFTC'S Chilton: Silver Investigation Continues, Expects Something Public 'In Near Future'

21 September 2012, 2:45 p.m.
By Debbie Carlson
Of Kitco News http://www.kitco.com

Kitco News) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is wrapping up its investigation of the silver market and while some sort of public announcement may come "in the near future," nothing is "imminent," said CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton Friday.
"We’re still wrapping it up. There’s nothing imminent, but I envision saying something publicly in the near future," Chilton told reporters at the Hard Assets conference in Chicago.
It’s been four years since the CFTC announced in September 2008 that it was investigating the silver market for possible manipulation. It’s unusual for the government agency to announce publicly that there is an ongoing investigation.Chilton reiterated at the conference that he believes that there was illegal activity, but did not say what that might be. He told reporters that he was frustrated the investigation has not ended yet.

Chilton said speculative position limits go into effect Oct. 12 which caps the number of trades a single speculative trader can have in place to 10% of a contract’s first 25,000 in open interest.

* * *

Von Greyerz talks about the latest tungsten scare in New York:

(courtesy Kingworld news/Von Greyerz)

Von Greyerz on real metal and hyperinflation

Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2012-09-21 19:04. Section: Daily Dispatches

3p ET Friday, September 21, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

It's hard to get too much of Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management, and today he is interviewed at King World News about the latest tungsten scare and the necessity of holding real metal outside the banking system, while at Matterhorn's Internet site, GoldSwitzerland, he gives an overview of the Western financial system and predicts hyperinflation.

The King World News interview is summarized here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/21_Gr...

Von Greyerz's commentary at GoldSwitzerland is here:

http://goldswitzerland.com/concerted-qe-the-beginning-of-hyperinflation/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Now China has the claim on Venezuela's Las Cristinas gold mine

Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2012-09-22 03:16. Section: Daily Dispatches

Venezuela and China Agree to Team Up to Develop Large Gold Mine

By The Associated Press
via The Washington Post
Friday, September 21, 2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/venezuela-and-china-agree-to-team...

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Chinese and Venezuelan officials signed an agreement Friday to jointly develop one of the world's largest gold mines.

The agreement to develop the Las Cristinas gold mine was signed by officials of the Venezuelan government and the Chinese company China International Trust and Investment Corp., or Citic. The mine in southern Bolivar state has been estimated to hold about 17 million ounces of gold.

President Hugo Chavez called it an agreement to begin exploiting both gold and copper deposits at the mine. He called Las Cristinas "one of the biggest reservoirs of gold that exists -- not only in Venezuela, not only in Latin America, but in the world."

Officials didn't discuss financial details of the agreement but said it specifies engineering, construction, and processing of the gold and copper. Chavez said officials also signed an agreement to produce a map of mineral deposits in the South American country.

He announced the deals after a meeting with Chinese officials at the presidential palace. Chavez said they also agreed to deepen cooperation in Venezuela's oil industry.

China's ties with Venezuela have grown rapidly in recent years. China also has become the country's biggest creditor, offering Chavez's government more than $36 billion in loans, which are being paid off largely with increasing oil shipments.

Last year Toronto-based Crystallex International Corp. said it sought international arbitration after Venezuela rescinded its contract to develop the Las Cristinas mine. The company said it had appealed to a World Bank arbitration body, claiming it was due $3.8 billion in compensation.

* * *

First Spanish Bailouts Conditions Revealed: Pension Freeze, Retirement Age Hike

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2012 08:58 -0400

Unemployment Benefits

As we reported first thing this morning, Spain, while happy to receive the effect of plunging bond yields, most certainly does not want the cause - requesting the inevitable sovereign bailout. To paraphrase Italy's undersecretary of finance, Gianfranco Polillo: "There won’t be any nation that voluntarily, with a preemptive move, even if rationally justified, would go to an international body and say -- ‘I give up my national sovereignty." He is spot on. However, the one thing that will force countries to request a bailout is the inevitable outcome of soaring budget deficits: i.e., running out of cash (as calculated here previously, an event Spain has to certainly look forward to all else equal). Which simply means that sooner or later Mariano Rajoy will have to throw in the towel and push the red button, knowing full well it most certainly means the end of his administration, and very likely substantial social and political unrest for a country which already has 25% unemployment, all just to preserve the ability to fund its deficits, instead of biting the bullet and slashing public spending (and funding needs), which too would cause social unrest - hence no way out. But why would a bailout request result in unrest? Reuters finally brings us the details of what the Spanish bailout would entail, and they are not pretty: "Spain is considering freezing pensions and speeding up a planned rise in the retirement age as it races to cut spending and meet conditions of an expected international sovereign aid package, sources with knowledge of the matter said...The accelerated raising of the retirement age to 67 from 65, currently scheduled to take place over 15 years, is a done deal, the sources said. The elimination of an inflation-linked annual pension hike is still being considered."

Athens Municipality Runs Out Of Cash; Suspends All Operations

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2012 09:29 -0400

Remember when we said cash flow is always more important than diluting the M2 (the Fed is great at the latter, powerless at the former)? Here's why: The municipality of Acharnes in northern Athens has decided to suspend all of its operations after running out of money. The municipal council met on Thursday night and voted to stop providing anything other than basic services because of its inability to pay employees’ wages and regular expenses. In NintendoDonkey Kong Game and Watch parlance: Game over.

“Acharnes Municipality will remain closed indefinitely, until the financial problem can be resolved,” the local authority said in a statement.

The municipality will operate with just skeleton staff, which trash will only be collected from outside schools.

Mayor Sotiris Douros is due to meet Interior Ministry officials on Friday to discuss the municipality's problems.

He wants the government to reduce from 11.5 percent to 5.5 percent the interest rate on a loan to the municipality. Douros argues that the monthly loan repayments of 500,000 euro is to high.

Coming to an insolvent, cash free, Keynesian experimental abortion near you.

Catharsis Ours

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Jim Sinclair breaks down QE to Infinity and Turd Ferguson blog piece for the weekend..... ...... Ed Steer's report for Saturday September 22nd , Harvey's blogspot as well......

Weekend Review

QE3 To Infinity–The Final End Game

Bart Chilton: Silver Market Investigation Statement Coming Soon

¤ YESTERDAY IN GOLD AND SILVER

Doug Noland: Credit Bubble Bulletin - Z1, QE3 and Deleveraging

Debt Relief: Lenders Reportedly Consider New Greek Haircut

Turkish Public Sours on Syrian Uprising

U.S. Says Disputed Islands Covered by Japan Defense Treaty

RBI to issue gold sovereign bonds to strengthen rupee

Warren James: SLV Database 3

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2012

The Spanish bailout conditions revealed: Pension freeze and retirement age hike/ Greek municipality runs out of cash/ Pakistan rioting on the streets/

According To The Knee-Jerk Market, South Africa Mines Silver

Von Greyerz on real metal and hyperinflation

Now China has the claim on Venezuela's Las Cristinas gold mine

First Spanish Bailouts Conditions Revealed: Pension Freeze, Retirement Age Hike

Athens Municipality Runs Out Of Cash; Suspends All Operations

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