http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-28/cue-stagflationary-recession-chicago-pmi-huge-sub-50-miss-back-september-2009-levels
( bad omen for ISM manufacturing and service reports - and non farm payroll numbers are shaky for Friday ... )
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/28/2012 09:57 -0400
( bad omen for ISM manufacturing and service reports - and non farm payroll numbers are shaky for Friday ... )
Cue Stagflationary Recession: Chicago PMI Huge Sub-50 Miss, Back To September 2009 Levels; Prices Paid Spikes
QE1, QE2, Operation Twist 1, Operation Twist 2, a Fed balance sheet that is now expected to be $5 trillion in 2 years, and all we get is a lousy manufacturing economy that according to the Chicago PMI just dipped into contraction, or for all intents and purposes, recession, printing its first sub-50 print, 49.7 specifically, on expectations of a 52.8, and down from 53. This was the lowest since September 2009 and the biggest miss in 4 months. Specifically, the employment index came at a two and a half year low, New Orders, Backlogs and Deliveries had their 3 month moving averages at the lowest since Mid 2009, and Capital Equipment printed at a 17 month low. But not all hope is lost: at least prices paid soared for the third consecutive month to 63.2 from 57. Cue not just recession, but stagflationary recession. It also means that both the Manufacturing ISM and Q3 GDP will be a total disaster. Time to start pricing in QE X to be followed 24 hours later by QE X+1. The central bank cartel is starting to lose control.
Employment:
The good news: you can now completely ignore anyone and everyone who told you over the past 4 years, that the economy was improving.
and.......
Chicago PMI: Here It Comes!
This presages a nasty official ISM next week...
The markets have not priced this in but they're sure dumping on this today, with the DOW down triple digits and the SPX down 10 (so far.)
Employment in the survey is at a 2-1/2 year low, new orders, backlogs and supplier deliveries have their 3-month moving averages at the lowest levelssince mid-2009.
Remember that mid-2009 was the alleged floor, which means we're now at levels that are at the worst they were before we allegedly turned the corner.
Production in the report remained positive, but new orders is not, backlogs turned last month below 50 and remained there this month, inventories are flat, employment is just barely positive (and for Chicago this is terrible -- that economy is typically VERY resiliant) and prices paid ramped, reflecting commodity price increases.
How can this be? It's simple, really -- you were lied to. Repeatedly. Intentionally. For the explicit purpose of goading you into overspending and borrowing (again) so that the banksters and politicans would not have to face the truth.
They failed, because arithmetic doesn't care about politics.
It just is.
We blew it folks. We, the people blew it.
We have serially refused to hold our politicians to account. We have refused to insist on jailing the banksters and putting a stop to the scams, from HFT on down the line. We are cheering for the Party of Frauds on both sides of the aisle instead of demanding that someone, anyone, step forward with the truth. We think it's all ok when the number of people on food stamps reaches an all-time high and a sudden ramp in "disabled" people is acceptable (who weren't disabled just a few years ago when jobs were easier to come by.)
"The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported September's Chicago Business Barometer fell to 49.7, its lowest level in three years......Prices Paid showed the biggest gain in nearly two years."This isn't good folks and serves as confirmation of what I've been saying for a while on the leading indicators I watch -- recession is baked in the cake and it's too late to "fix it."
The markets have not priced this in but they're sure dumping on this today, with the DOW down triple digits and the SPX down 10 (so far.)
Employment in the survey is at a 2-1/2 year low, new orders, backlogs and supplier deliveries have their 3-month moving averages at the lowest levelssince mid-2009.
Remember that mid-2009 was the alleged floor, which means we're now at levels that are at the worst they were before we allegedly turned the corner.
Production in the report remained positive, but new orders is not, backlogs turned last month below 50 and remained there this month, inventories are flat, employment is just barely positive (and for Chicago this is terrible -- that economy is typically VERY resiliant) and prices paid ramped, reflecting commodity price increases.
How can this be? It's simple, really -- you were lied to. Repeatedly. Intentionally. For the explicit purpose of goading you into overspending and borrowing (again) so that the banksters and politicans would not have to face the truth.
They failed, because arithmetic doesn't care about politics.
It just is.
We blew it folks. We, the people blew it.
We have serially refused to hold our politicians to account. We have refused to insist on jailing the banksters and putting a stop to the scams, from HFT on down the line. We are cheering for the Party of Frauds on both sides of the aisle instead of demanding that someone, anyone, step forward with the truth. We think it's all ok when the number of people on food stamps reaches an all-time high and a sudden ramp in "disabled" people is acceptable (who weren't disabled just a few years ago when jobs were easier to come by.)
The bill is on the table for our idiocy, especially our fiscal and monetary policy idiocy, and the waiter is tapping his foot.
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/28/2012 10:54 -0400
and......
Fed Buys $20 Billion In QE3 Mortgages; Jobs Created: Zero
Yesterday, the Fed reported the first $20.1 billion in net, non-rolling purchases of MBS eligible under QE3 (consisting of FHLMC, FNMA, GNMA and GNMA2, most likely the bulk of them coming out of a certain office in Newport Beach which has decided to start locking in its monster profits for the year after getting QEternity spot on). End result: jobs created or saved zero. But at least we got the first recessionary PMI print, and an employment component that was the lowest since March 2010. When in doubt who can destroy the economy the best, just leave it to Benver.
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