Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Lebanon about to get rolled into the Syria / Iran proxy war.....War drums beating for battle / attack on Iran - is Obama going to promise a US attack by mid-2013 as appeasement and delay until after the November Elections ?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-16/184811-meqdads-if-relative-killed-turkish-hostage-to-die.ashx#axzz23fXXyRbp


BEIRUT: A spokesperson for the Lebanese Meqdad clan, which kidnapped a Turkish national and tens of Syrians in retaliation for the abduction of Hassan Meqdad in Damascus, said Thursday that if Hassan is killed, the Meqdads would kill their Turkish hostage.
"If they kill Hassan Meqdad, the first person we will kill is the Turkish man [Aidan Toufan]," said Maher Meqdad.
Speaking to The Daily Star in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Meqdad also threatened further kidnappings.
“We have a slew of targets,” he said, but added that the clan would only kidnap Turkish nationals and Syrians affiliated with the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
“Kidnappings will not be undertaken in a chaotic way; we will not kidnap any Syrian before we are certain he is affiliated to the FSA,” Meqdad said.
On Wednesday, over two dozen Syrians and a Turkish national were kidnapped by the Meqdad clan in retaliation for the abduction in Damascus of Hassan.
Meqdad also said that Interior Minister Marwan Charbel would fail in his negotiations with the clan Thursday, saying: “Just like Foreign Affairs Minister [Adnan Mansour] failed, so will the interior minister in his meeting [Thursday].
Charbel is expected to meet with representatives of the Meqdad clan Thursday in a bid to secure the release of the abductees in Lebanon.
A clan member who preferred to remain anonymous said that Charbel “was not welcome.”


He also said that the clan will be more selective in choosing its targets and admitted that mistakes occurred Wednesday when the spree of kidnappings took place.
On another note, Meqdad stressed that his clan is “an entity totally independent of Hezbollah” and that it does not take orders from any party.
On Tuesday, Al-Arabiya television reported that Hassan, whom it described as a member of Hezbollah, was detained by the FSA in Syria. Hezbollah denies Hassan is a member of the resistance group, as does the Meqdad clan.



and....







http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Aug-15/184759-syrian-rebels-kidnapped-in-lebanon-tv.ashx#axzz23fXXyRbp

Lebanese clan says holds Syrian rebels over kidnapped kinsmanAugust 15, 2012 11:18 AM (Last updated: August 16, 2012 04:18 AM)


BEIRUT: The Meqdad clan of east Lebanon’s Bekaa region said Wednesday it had kidnapped over 30 Syrians it described as being members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in retaliation for the kidnapping in Syria of one of its kinsmen earlier this week. It also said it had a Saudi and Turkish national in its custody.

Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates urged its citizen to leave Lebanon amid tightened security measures by Lebanese authorities of the embassies of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.

“We have more than 30 Syrian rebels, some of whom have been wounded in the confrontations with the Syrian regime,” Maher Meqdad, a member of and spokesperson for the family, told The Daily Star.

Beirut-based AlMayadeen aired footage Wednesday of two of the men the Meqdad family claimed to have kidnapped.

In the video, one of the Syrians urged the FSA to release Hassan.

Members of the Meqdad clan claim that their kinsman Hassan Meqdad was kidnapped by Syrian rebels Monday in Damascus.

On Tuesday, Al-Arabiya television reported that Hassan, whom it described as a member of Hezbollah, was detained by the FSA in Syria. Hezbollah denies Hassan is a member of the resistance group, as does his family.

The FSA also denied Wednesday reports that it had detained Hassan.

“We have nothing to do with the kidnapping of that man,” spokesman for the FSA Col. Fahd Masri told LBCI television.

He said information made available to the FSA indicates that Hassan was kidnapped Monday in Damascus near the shrine of Sayyida Zainab.



Maher Meqdad, who said his family fields an armed wing, told The Daily Star that the Meqdads had taken matters into their own hands, as the government had taken no steps to free their kinsman.

“We will do it ourselves, and we have what you can call a regulated army to do the job,” he said.

Meqdad said that his family is acting according to the “eye for an eye” principle, and no longer needs the Lebanese government to intervene in order to secure the release of Hassan.

Asked about negotiations, Maher said now was not the right time.

“It is not the right time to talk; we still have to get some things done,” Maher said.

He said Hassan’s kidnappers had initially tried to contact the family but that the clan is refraining from pursuing negotiations.

He also said the Cabinet had not exerted the required efforts to get back the eleven Lebanese kidnapped in Syria in May.

“We also call for setting them free, but our son remains the priority for us,” he said.

Conflicting reports emerged Wednesday on the fate with of the 11 pilgrims who were kidnapped in Syrian on May 22.

Maher said the Meqdads had set a 48-hour deadline for Hassan’s release but did not say what further steps the clan would take.

Speaking to the media, the spokesman also held Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey responsible for Hassan’s kidnapping “because they support the FSA; therefore, we cannot guarantee that undisciplined members of the family’s military wing will not do something reckless.”




 The Meqdads also said they had in custody a Saudi national and Turkish national.

The Turkish national, who was identified as Aidan Toufan, told LBC in an interview that the Meqdads were treating him as a guest.

While security services took the appropriate measures around embassies and diplomats’ residences, the embassies sent out text messages to their respective nationals urging them to inform them of their whereabouts, according to security sources.

Saudi Arabia urged its citizens to halt all visits to Lebanon and for those in the country to leave immediately.

The UAE issued a similar travel advisory to its citizens.

Saudi Ambassador Ali Awad al-Asiri, who is in Mecca, told the National News Agency that he requested that all Saudi nationals in Lebanon to leave the country after “the threats have become open.”

He also denied any knowledge “of Saudi nationals having been kidnapped in Lebanon.”



and.....



http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2012/Aug-15/184782-saudi-arabia-calls-on-all-its-citizens-to-leave-lebanon-immediately.ashx#axzz23fXXyRbp

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE urge their nationals to leave LebanonAugust 15, 2012 07:09 PM
A+A-

BEIRUT: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates urged their citizens Wednesday to leave Lebanon amid threats by members of Lebanese clan who kidnapped earlier in the day over 30 Syrians, as well as one Saudi and one Turkish national.
Saudi Ambassador Ali Awad al-Asiri, who is in Mecca, told the National News Agency that he requested that all Saudi nationals in Lebanon leave the country after “the threats have become open.”
Asiri was referring to threats earlier in the day by the Meqdad clan, which said it could take action against Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey over the kidnapping of one its members earlier this week in Syria.
The Meqdad clan said Wednesday it abducted over 30 individuals it described as belonging to the Free Syrian Army, which it claims was behind the kidnapping of their relative, Hassan Meqdad, Monday. The Lebanese clan also said it had in its custody one Saudi and one Turkish national.
The Meqdads hold Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia responsible for the kidnapping given their backing to Syrian rebels. The family also held the Lebanese government responsible for not putting enough efforts to release their kin.
The Saudi Ambassador told the NNA that he had also requested that all Saudi nationals not visit the country “given the current circumstances.”

He also denied any knowledge “of Saudi nationals having been kidnapped in Lebanon.”
The United Arab Emirates and Qatar issued similar travel advisories to its citizens in Lebanon.


and......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/9478044/Israeli-minister-warns-of-30-day-war-with-Iran.html


Matan Vilnai, who is stepping down as home front defence minister to become ambassador to China, said the country was “ready as never before”.
“The assessments are for a war that will last 30 days on a number of fronts,” he told the Maariv newspaper.
“It could be that there will be less fatalities, but it could be there will be more, that is the scenario that we are preparing for according to the best experts.”
Speculation is growing that Israel is planning a unilateral attack on Iran’snuclear programme - or that it is using the question to increase pressure on Barack Obama to launch an American strike.
Western governments share the fears about Iran’s nuclear ambitions but oppose military action and want to give more time to diplomacy.


He called for Iran to be presented with an ultimatum of a "few weeks" to cease its nuclear programme.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, issued a public warning that Tehran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb. "Every threat against the home front is dwarfed by one threat. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon," he told ministers at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.


but consider......

http://news.antiwar.com/2012/08/15/report-obama-to-tell-israel-us-will-attack-iran-by-june-2013-if-diplomacy-fails/


Report: Obama to Tell Israel US ‘Will Attack Iran by June 2013′ If Diplomacy Fails

It could be a tactic to stave off an Israeli attack before the November elections, but such talk is incredibly dangerous

by John Glaser, August 15, 2012
According to Israel’s Channel 10 news, President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon meet so that Obama can reassure Netanyahu that the US “will attack Iran by June 2013″ if diplomacy fails by then.
The report said that the meeting will take place in either New York or Washington at the end of September or the very beginning of October, which is around the time Netanyahu and his cabinet have implied an Israeli strike might take place.
The Obama administration has made notable efforts to try and put off war, preferring instead to do things covertly and through economic warfare. While it is broadly understood that Israel is unlikely to go ahead with a military strike on Iran without a green light from Washington, nobody is absolutely surely what Israel will do.
If it’s true that Obama is planning to make a promise of a June 2013 US attack, it could be an attempt to stave off an Israeli attack before the November presidential elections. But even if it’s just a tactic to avoid war in the next few months, such promises are a very dangerous diplomatic method and would show how little interest Obama has in peace.
What exactly the conditions would be come June to prompt an attack are entirely unclear. The White House has said repeatedly, including within the last few days, that Iran still does not have a nuclear weapons program. Even the Israelis have admitted this.
If Iran has no nuclear weapons program, then there is no conceivable imminent threat to the US or Israel and thus no attack is justified. Indeed, a preventive attack would constitute a war crime, as George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has said.
As Aaron David Miller, scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, said in May, given the fact that Iran has no nuclear weapons program, “a unilateral attack [on Iran] would be totally discretionary. It would be a war of choice,” not of necessity.
and...





http://soberlook.com/2012/08/crude-oil-denominated-in-euros-hits.html


WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 15, 2012


Crude oil denominated in euros hits record

Brent crude oil priced in euros hit a new high today of €94.83/barrel, exceeding the highs reached in 08 as well as early this year.

Source: Bloomberg
This rally has been driven by four factors:

1. The euro is down close to 15% over the past year.

2. Draghi's "Believe me, it will be enough" statement increased demand for "risk assets". Bets on additional central bank stimulus are pushing up crude prices.

3. An unexpected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories added to the upward pressure on crude.

4. Israel's rhetoric on Iran is not helping matters either (particularly when it emanates from official sources). With tighter US supplies, it doesn't take much to spook jittery oil traders. The "Iran premium" currently built into the crude prices is not insignificant.

Bloomberg/BW: - Israel would be willing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, even if doing so only delayed its ability to produce nuclear weapons for a few years, Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren said. 

“One, two, three, four years are a long time in the Middle East -- look what’s happened in the last year” in terms of political change, Oren said today at a Bloomberg Government breakfast in Washington. “In our neighborhood, those are the rules of the game.”

Israeli leaders have stressed this month that time is running out for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear program that Israel regards as an existential threat. 

“Diplomacy hasn’t succeeded,” Oren, 57, said today. “We’ve come to a very critical juncture where important decisions do have to be made.”
As discussed before, these elevated fuel prices (based in EUR) will inflict serious damage to growth prospects for Eurozone nations - particularly for Italy who is already struggling with a year-long economic contraction.



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