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and if landfall comes wednesday morning in Louisiana , that would be 7 years to the day ..... strange..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

Hurricane Katrina formed over the Bahamas on August 23, 2005 and crossed southern Florida as a moderate Category 1 hurricane, causing some deaths and flooding there before strengthening rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm weakened before making its second landfall as a Category 3 storm on the morning of Monday, August 29 in southeast Louisiana. It caused severe destruction along the Gulf coast from central Florida to Texas, much of it due to the storm surge. The most significant number of deaths occurred in New Orleans, Louisiana, which flooded as the levee system catastrophically failed, in many cases hours after the storm had moved inland.^[5] Eventually 80% of the city and large tracts of neighboring parishesbecame flooded, and the floodwaters lingered for weeks.^[5] However, the worst property damage occurred in coastal areas, such as all Mississippi beachfront towns, which were flooded over 90% in hours, as boats and casino barges rammed buildings, pushing cars and houses inland, with waters reaching 6–12 miles (10–19 km) from the beach.

and...

http://www.kplctv.com/story/19379695/gov-jindal-urges-residents-to-prepare-for-worst-ahead-of-isaac

With Louisiana's lower east coast in Tropical Storm Isaac's path Governor Bobby Jindal is urging residents to prepare for the worst ahead of the storm. At a news conference Sunday afternoon Gov. Jindal encouraged 15 parishes (from Terrebone to Plaquemines) in low lying areas to begin voluntary evacuations.

"I recommend our residents hope and pray for the best as we prepare for the worst. Those 15 low lying parishes below the Intracoastal and without levee protection need to consider voluntary evacuations today because they will likely be mandatory tomorrow. Make sure you and your families have a game plan because there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm and its track," said Jindal.

Jindal said he's already issued a state of emergency declaration ahead of the storm so we can get assistance should it be needed. So far 4,000 Louisiana National Guardsman have been placed on standby. Guardsman in Arkansas are also on standby, but Jindal does not think they will be needed.

DOTD has been placed on notice to activate 200 buses should they be needed for evacuation. An additional 50 school buses will also be made available. Jindal expects as more schools decide to close up to 150 school buses will be possibly be available.

In terms of evacuation the Louisiana State Police are also monitoring evacuation routes and prepared to issue a contra flow (where both lanes of traffic go in one direction) as early as tomorrow (Monday).

A shelter with 400 beds has been set up in Alexandria for those needed to evacuate. Another shelter is being set up at the Pete Maravich Center at LSU with approximately 200 beds.

The Governor said they are watching and closely monitoring the situation through the National Weather Service. Based on projections the National Weather Service is calling for Category 2 Hurricane when it makes landfall.

Projected storm surge varies from state to state. In Mississippi it's 7-10 feet. In eastern Louisiana it's 5-10 feet. Plaquemines parish can expect rapidly rising water around midnight Tuesday with other areas to follow.

Coastal areas can also expect strong winds. Tropical storm winds are expected to last between 24 -36 hours and hurricane force winds from six to eight hours. Forecasters are also looking at the possibility of tornadoes from Tuesday to early Wednesday.

Meanwhile they expect storm conditions to temporarily shut down offshore energy production in the Gulf of Mexico by 50% of oil and 40% natural gas. Jindal said they expect that number to rise if the storm should move further west: 90% oil, 75% natural gas.

The BP cleanup has also been suspended until further notice.

At 5 p.m. the Governor's office issued the following news release summarizing today's afternoon news conference:

BATORN ROUGE – Following a meeting of the Unified Command Group at the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, Governor Bobby Jindal urged Louisianians to get prepared for Tropical Storm Isaac and encouraged voluntary evacuations for people in parishes in the hurricane watch zone that are in low lying areas, areas South of the Intracoastal Waterway and areas outside of levee protection.

Governor Jindal said, "Tropical Storm Isaac continues to track westward and a hurricane watch is in effect for 15 Louisiana parishes. This includes the New Orleans metro area and the parishes adjacent to Lake Pontchartrain. The National Weather Service expects the storm to become a hurricane in the next 12 hours and the current forecast shows it will become a Category 2 at landfall.

"We are encouraging everyone to get prepared now to ensure that you have an evacuation plan in place, plenty of water, non-perishable food items, hygiene supplies, sufficient clothing, and any prescription medications you or your family may need in the event of the storm. We are urging Louisianians to stay alert and monitor local weather conditions in their area. As with every storm, we always hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

"State and local officials are taking a number of steps to protect our people and property from the storm. In addition to issuing a State of Emergency for the storm, we are in touch with parish leaders and we are recommending voluntary evacuations within the hurricane watch area. Specifically, this is for people in low lying areas, areas outside of levee protection, and areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway."

Parishes in the Hurricane Watch area include:
•         Orleans
•         St. Bernard
•         Plaquemines
•         Jefferson
•         St. Charles
•         Lafourche
•         Terrebonne
•         Assumption
•         St. James
•         St. John
•         Ascension
•         Livingston
•         Tangipahoa
•         St. Tammany
•         Washington

PARISH STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARATION
•         Some parishes have declared a state of emergency, including:
o   Jefferson Parish
o   Orleans Parish
o   Plaquemines Parish
o   St Charles Parish

AGENCY UPDATES
COASTAL
• CPRA is coordinating with the Army Corps of Engineers, as well as area levee and conservation districts, to monitor rising water levels to determine appropriate times to close flood and navigation gates on area waterways if necessary.

• CPRA is also coordinating with levee districts and parish emergency operations centers to monitor water levels on area levee systems and identify potential deficiencies to determine if additional assets are needed for potential flood fighting from elevated tides, storm surges or rainfall.

•         Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-East:
o   Lake Borgne Levee District – Closed all gates on the Chalmette loop and will close Bayou Bienvenue structure today.
o   Orleans Levee District - closed 40 non-essential gates yesterday.

• Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority-West Field crews activated, and will begin closing non-essential gates today.

• Corps of Engineers is considering closure today of the IHNC (Inner Harbor Navigational Channel), the massive floodwall that reduces the risk of storm surge from Lake Borgne pushing into St. Bernard Parish, New Orleans East, the 9th Ward, and Metro New Orleans.

Reports from Parishes
South Lafourche Levee District
• System is open to navigation and lock closure will be reevaluated tomorrow morning.

Jefferson Parish
• In the Laffite area, the state has repurposed $150,000 for emergency flood fighting
• In Grand Isle, emergency work is being done on back levee between Orange and Walnut Streets, and on Caminada levee around Hebert Street.

Plaquemines Parish
• CPRA offering assistance should back levees need raising or additional protection needed for Highway 23.
• Coordinating closure of gaps in ongoing Corps projects. Corps is going to make all closures with existing contractors on site.

Terrebonne Levee and Conservation District (TLCD)
• All gates and structures remain open at this time. TLCD encouraging all marine boaters to keep a close watch on updates, and to mobilize marine vessels to safe positions. Anticipating closure of some structures late tomorrow (Monday) afternoon.

NATIONAL GUARD

• Governor Jindal has authorized the National Guard to mobilize up to 4,000 Guardsmen to help support the effort. The National Guard also has 75 generators positioned if needed.

DOTD

•         The state is activating contracts to provide buses to help with evacuations. By tomorrow, 200 buses will be available.
•         The Department of Education has also identified 50 buses, and if schools close, there will be approximately 150 buses from schools.
•         DOTD has also stopped collecting tolls on LA-1.

SHELTERING/CHILDREN AND FAMILY SERVICES/DHH
•         The state has 27,400 slots for critical transportation needs beds, medical needs beds and point to point shelters. In addition, Red Cross has 28,000 beds available.
•         DCFS is also working with day care and residential licensed facilities, as well as foster care parents, to ensure they have a plan in place.
•         DHH has provided a notice to members, including hospitals, nursing homes, dialysis network, and other medical institutions to update recall rosters, top-off generators, and take other preparatory actions for institutional readiness.

WILDLIFE AND FISHERIES
• Coastal and Nongame Division personnel will begin securing all loose gear and small equipment items at coastal wildlife management area offices.
• Additionally, all vehicles and boats will be fully fueled in preparation for any evacuation measures that may be required.• Over 200 agents and vessels are on standby, monitoring the storm and preparing search and rescue equipment. The Enforcement Division will move equipment from the coastal parishes that may be in harm's way to the north.

• The Office of Fisheries will begin securing all loose gear and equipment items.

DNR
•         DNR has required Texas Brine to develop a plan to ensure safe operations in the area of the drilling operations and sinkhole in assumption parish.
•         Prior to landfall, the drilling derrick will be layed down, all equipment will be secured and work will stop and personnel evacuated if necessary.
•         DNR staff will remain on site to oversee these operations until the site is secured and evacuation begins.
•         50 percent of offshore oil production and 40 percent of natural gas production has been shut in. As the storm continues to move west, 90 percent of oil production and 75 percent of natural gas production is expected to be shut in.

CORRECTIONS
• All state correctional facilities and Probation and Parole District Offices were notified on Friday to review pre-storm plans and take necessary action (such as checking generators, topping fuel tanks, checking food and supply inventories, securing computer equipment, etc.).
• The Department of corrections is working with coastal parishes to evacuate any inmates that need to be evacuated, starting with those in temporary facilities

JUVENILE JUSTICE
• If necessary, the Bridge City Center for Youth near New Orleans will evacuate youth to Jetson Center for Youth in Baker. Jetson is ready to receive the youth.

DEQ
• DEQ has 201 approved debris sites identified for the post-storm response.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/weatherbell/2012/08/26/tropical-storm-isaac-should-rival-hurricane-katrina/

INVESTING

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8/26/2012 @ 11:19AM |29,312 views

Tropical Storm Isaac Should Rival Hurricane Katrina

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By Michael Barak, Joseph Bastardi and Alan Lammey

On August 24^th, we warned on Forbes that Tropical Storm Isaac could pose a threat to energy markets and even rival Hurricane Katrina in its destructive power (Could Tropical Storm Isaac Turn Into Another Katrina?). While the computer models are still showing a substantial spread in solutions, it appears more likely that Isaac will make landfall somewhere near the Louisiana, Mississippi Gulf Coast. This track will provide the storm more time to intensify over the very warm water of the Gulf of Mexico.

The entire Gulf Coast from Lake Charles, LA to Panama City, FL should be aware of the latest forecast model guidance. The reason for this large spread is because the computer models are split between whether a trough will capture Isaac or not. As of 8AM Sunday morning, it appears Isaac will not be captured and as a result, a more westward track is most likely.

WEATHERBELL FORECAST MODELS

Hurricane Katrina made landfall near New Orleans on Aug 29, 2005. It is estimated that the total economic impact in Louisiana and Mississippi exceeded $110 billion, earning the title of the most expensive hurricane ever in US history.

As Katrina moved through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and natural gas production area, it negatively impacted nearly 20% of US oil production. Hurricane Katrina, followed by Hurricane Rita in September, destroyed 113 offshore oil and gas platforms and damaged 457 oil and gas pipelines. Oil, gasoline, and natural gas futures prices on the NYMEX soared as damage assessments were reported.

The hurricane damage inflicted by Katrina caused oil prices to increase from the mid-$60s per barrel to over $70/bbl and gasoline prices at the pump rocketed to near $5 a gallon in some areas of the US. The US government released oil from its stockpile in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to offset price rises. In the natural gas market, prices were trading in the $9 to $10/MMBtu range at the time, but spiked to over $15/MMBtu as the full extent of the damage became apparent.

Additionally, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) was closed on August 27, 2005, reducing production by over 400,000 barrels per day. LOOP handles 13% of the nation’s foreign oil, about 1.2 million barrels a day, and connects by pipeline to 50% of the U.S. refining capability. The port was undamaged by the storm and resumed operation within hours of electricity coming back online.

Gulf of Mexico oil production was reduced by about 1.4 million barrels per day as a result of Hurricane Katrina, equivalent to about 91% of daily Gulf of Mexico oil production. Additionally, over 8 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day of natural gas production was shut in, equivalent to 83% of daily Gulf of Mexico natural gas production.

Seven years later as what will be Hurricane Isaac bears down on the Gulf Coast, the Gulf of Mexico currently accounts for about 23% of oil production and 7% of natural gas output according to the US Department of Energy. Furthermore, roughly 30% of natural gas processing plant capacity and 44% of US refining capacity is located along the US Gulf Coast.

According to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEMRE), 8.6% of the Gulf’s daily oil output and 1.6% of daily natural gas production was shut down as a result of Isaac approaching the Gulf of Mexico. Closing prices as of Friday, Aug 24, 2012 of NYMEX October WTI futures settled at $96.15/bbl, while September natural gas settled at $2.70/MMBtu.

When it comes to offshore oil and gas rig infrastructure in 2012 versus 2005, the biggest difference is that the rigs placed into the Gulf of Mexico in the last several years have been hardened to resist Category 4 or 5 hurricanes. However, up until now, other than Hurricane’s Gustav and Ike in 2008, there has been no real test of the endurance of newer ‘hurricane resistant’ infrastructure that has replaced much of the aging platforms in 2005. Isaac may very well be the storm to test the fortitude of the newer offshore hardware.

In terms of energy prices, it’s very likely that the oil and gas markets will react bullishly to Isaac when traders come back to work on Monday, particularly if the computer models verify a track toward some of the more heavily concentrated oil and gas rig areas off the coast of Louisiana.

Bigger picture technical indicators for September natural gas lean bullish. On the upside, key resistance is seen between $2.89 and $2.94. If the latter is violated, look for aggressive buyers to test the $3.01 area, followed by $3.07 and $3.10. On the downside, key support for the September gas futures contract resides between $2.71 and $2.685. If violated, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see prices pull back further toward $2.62, $2.59, followed by $2.50 and ultimately $2.41 to $2.35.

From the technical indicators perspective, key resistance for October crude is seen at $98.30. If the latter is violated, then a further advance toward target area of $100 to $102 is likely, followed by a potential surge toward the $110 to $114 area. On the downside, support is seen between $97.15 and $96.26, followed by between $95.32 and $94.98, and then again at $92.65 and $91.75.

With respect to insurance companies, natural disasters have been absent for the most part of 2012. Isaac has the potential to be a destructive and devastating storm along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting Isaac to make landfall with peak winds of 105 MPH. There is a strong possibility that the storm will be considerably stronger at landfall. The breakdown of 2011 personal and commercial lines market share by company can be seen in the chart below.