http://www.zerohedge.com/news/lch-adds-margin-call-injury-hikes-spanish-italian-bond-margins
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/blacklist-ten-italian-cities-verge-financial-collapse
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/23/1092581/not-wanting-to-be-left-out-spains-cds-widen/
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-yields-record-lows-2012-7
and.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanish-10-year-trades-ugly-side-750
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9419838/Debt-crisis-live.html
LCH Adds Margin Call To Injury, Hikes Spanish, Italian Bond Margins
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2012 13:19 -0400
Hopefully nobody will be surprised to learn that after Spanish bonds closed at all time records earlier, just shy of 7.50%, that LCH has decided to hike margins on not only Spanish bonds, in the 7-30 year duration windows (from 11.80% to 12.20% for the benchmark 10 Year), but also on Italian bonds, at both the short and long-end, which are now also rapidly approaching the 7% threshold, pushing the 7-10 Year duration window from 9.50% to 11.65%, and which will approach it much faster now that there will be even more forced margin selling to cover collateral calls.
Spain:
Italy
Source: LCH
and.....
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100019006/who-will-hold-the-troika-to-account-for-asphyxiating-greece/
Who will hold the Troika to account for asphyxiating Greece?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/blacklist-ten-italian-cities-verge-financial-collapse
The "Blacklist" - Ten Italian Cities On Verge Of Financial Collapse
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2012 07:24 -0400
Last week when we wrote about the imminent default of Sicily which Mario Monti tried to sweep under the rug by demanding the local governor resign for not masking the situation with lies, and doing all he can to prevent the advent of reality, we noted, rather sarcastically, that the "resignation of Sicily Governor Lombardo will somehow allow all those who care about the fundamentals of Italy to stick their heads in the sand... at least until Sicily is followed by Calabria, Campania, Lazio, Abruzzo, Tuscany, Lombardy, Umbria, Liguria, Veneto and so on. At least the governors of those respective provinces now have an advance warning what the endgame is." Sure enough, now that this particular floodgate has also been opened, it is only fitting that in the aftermath of this weekend's main news that a total of 6 Spanish regions will demand bailouts, that Italy follow suit with its own blacklist, and as La Stampa has reported, there are now ten major Italian cities at risk of an imminent financial collapse, yet another factor pushing Italian yields well on their way to the country's own 7% rubicon, now at 6.34%.
From La Stampa, google translated:
There are ten major Italian cities with more than 50 000 inhabitants, who are a step away from the crash.
Naples and Palermo at the top of the "black list", although a task force for weeks at Palazzo Chigi is doing everything possible to avoid the worst.
Then Reggio Calabria, finished in red already in 2007-2008 and is now being investigated by the judiciary. And then so many other governments, large and small (like Milazzo), perhaps far virtuous, could be forced to ask for the "collapse", which means dissolution
of the council, entrance of the Court of Auditors and prefectural commissioner.
The last shot, or if you want the coup de grace, it is to come: it is a provision inserted in the decree on the spending review that in the folds of the new rules that impose the "harmonization of accounting systems and financial statements" requires to devalue the 25% of the residual assets accumulated to date. These revenues accounted for but not yet cashed, as may be the proceeds of fines and waste tax.
and....Key figures, which serve to "make" the budget of an institution that often, in practice, these voices swells while knowing they will not be able to collect 100% of the amounts to be budgeted. Proceeds often very short questions, which now can no longer serve to make ends meet."At risk are at least a dozen large cities' trust in the government technicians who are monitoring the situation."The situation is becoming more difficult every day,"confirms the president of ANCI Graziano Del Rio. Pointing the finger at yet another cut in transfers, against the measures introduced by the spending review, and that raises the alarm of many fellow mayors. "
Because he who defaults first, always defaults first.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/23/1092581/not-wanting-to-be-left-out-spains-cds-widen/
Not wanting to be left out, Spain’s CDS widen
Credit default swaps also want in on the “Spain’s [insert financial instrument] reach record highs” headlines. And they got their way on Monday morning:
The above chart is intraday data for the 5-year maturity point. Context around the deterioration is here on FT Alphaville. What we’ll give you on this post is a bit of context relative to other sovereign CDS, with the exact mix decided by the constituents of the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe index:
Portugal and Cyprus CDS are actually in quoted in upfront terms, e.g. Portugal closed at 26.93 per cent on Friday. Spain is still trading in running spread terms — 603bps at Friday’s close — and is in increasingly worse shape than veteran bailee Ireland.
Interestingly, France is having a particularly bad morning in terms of the amount it’s widening relative to its level, but we’re not taking too much of a message from that.
As to whether swaps referencing the Spanish sovereign trade much in this market, they are the fifth largest single-name CDS out there: after France, Germany, Italy and Brazil, when measured by net notional outstanding. The amount of interest in them has, however, been decreasing since the autumn of last year, according to the below data from DTCC:
Take bets now on how many times the headline “Cost of credit default
insurance
swaps reach fresh high” gets written over the next couple of weeks, but by the looks of it, somewhat more dramatic ones may fill that space.
insurance
swaps reach fresh high” gets written over the next couple of weeks, but by the looks of it, somewhat more dramatic ones may fill that space.
and more Alphaville.......
http://www.businessinsider.com/us-yields-record-lows-2012-7
The trading week has started and it's risk off. Markets in Asia and Europe are getting slammed on renewed fears that Greece and Spain may not meet its debt obligations.
This has sent investors and traders into low-risk asset classes like US Treasury securities. The US 10-year Treasury note yield sank to 1.40% earlier today.
Here's chart of the 10-year note from Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. It shows that the borrowing costs have never been this low.
and.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanish-10-year-trades-ugly-side-750
Spanish 10 Year Trades On The Ugly Side Of 7.50%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/23/2012 06:39 -0400
Spain 2-Year Government Bonds
5.76% was the previous close. Yield is currently up 44.5 basis points at 6.2%. The high yield was 6.255%, easily topping the previous high of 6.09%.
Full Spanish Bailout Coming Up
As is typical, that translation is a bit choppy. However, one can surely get the gist of it.
Also as usual, Wolfgang Münchau misdiagnoses the problem. Hiking taxes is a problem, but so is Keynesian claptrap. It is not feasible for governments to spend their way out of problems. Nor is it possible for monetary stimulus to solve the problem.
If such proposed solutions actually worked, Japan would not be in dire straits today.
Keynesian and monetary stimulus proposals are nothing more than gigantic can-kicking exercises. They only appear to work because experience shows the can will be kicked much further than anyone thought possible. The intermediate result is misguided faith in can-kicking.
The final result however, is typically something that ends up like Greece or Japan, with can-kicking proponents like Münchau and Paul Krugman, screaming every step of the way for still more can-kicking as the solution.
and.......
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/23/eurozone-crisis-spain-bond-yields1
The last time a sovereign bond issue was imploding at this rate without the ECB's intervention, Silvio Berlusconi was about to be forcibly retired. This time, however, we fail to see what the assorted globalist elements will benefit by having Rajoy forcibly displaced: after all he has been a studious and versatile pawn of the status quo. That said, stick a fork in Spain, and all those newsletter writers who were saying to buy its bonds, or equities: at last check the IBEX was down nearly 5%, after falling by the same amount on Friday. This is the equivalent of the Dow Jones tumbling by just about 600 points. The catalyst - the 10 Year which touched on 7.565% minutes earlier, as virtually all hope is now lost - it is now every country and region for himself, and he who panics first, panics best.
Monday, July 23, 2012 3:32 AM
Spain 2-Year Government Bonds
5.76% was the previous close. Yield is currently up 44.5 basis points at 6.2%. The high yield was 6.255%, easily topping the previous high of 6.09%.
Full Spanish Bailout Coming Up
El Pais reports Full Spanish Bailout Increasingly Likely
"The financial credibility of Spain is close to zero. Fiscal credibility is zero. The political credibility is zero. Investors have been sentenced to Spain. The Government has wasted no time in recent months has squandered the credit granting him an absolute majority, has lost some confidence in European institutions and the whole market with a succession of errors, many of them for a bad communication strategy is correct now without success. Too late? Can not say such things in public, but without a change of attitude are you doomed to a full recovery. "
"I see little chance that Spain is free," says Ken Rogoff, a Harvard professor and head of the IMF execonomista. "Spain will continue with serious growth problems and stop until there is a massive deleveraging. This can be achieved with painful structural reforms, especially in the labor market. Also with a sustained inflation in countries like Germany, which can be ruled out given the degree of obsession with the ECB. And take away significant restructuring and debt, the best approach but politically the most difficult. Most likely, this is made more than a decade of anemic growth and high unemployment, combined to a greater or lesser extent with the previous recipes, "says Rogoff, who predicts a sort of social depression (if it is not as friction unemployment 25%).
Wolfgang Münchau, who heads the think tank Eurointelligence Brussels, says the austerity measures at the trough "are really crazy, prolong and deepen the recession even raise the deficit contractionary effect. It is amazing that governments keep repeating mistakes made decades ago. " With these rods, there is little room: "Spain is no longer fully sovereign, because the government can no longer funded. Yes, I expect a complete audit, "says Martin Wolf resounding, economic commentator for the Financial Times header.Misguided Faith in Can-Kicking
As is typical, that translation is a bit choppy. However, one can surely get the gist of it.
Also as usual, Wolfgang Münchau misdiagnoses the problem. Hiking taxes is a problem, but so is Keynesian claptrap. It is not feasible for governments to spend their way out of problems. Nor is it possible for monetary stimulus to solve the problem.
If such proposed solutions actually worked, Japan would not be in dire straits today.
Keynesian and monetary stimulus proposals are nothing more than gigantic can-kicking exercises. They only appear to work because experience shows the can will be kicked much further than anyone thought possible. The intermediate result is misguided faith in can-kicking.
The final result however, is typically something that ends up like Greece or Japan, with can-kicking proponents like Münchau and Paul Krugman, screaming every step of the way for still more can-kicking as the solution.
and.......
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/23/eurozone-crisis-spain-bond-yields1
MARKETS CONTINUE TO FALL
European stock markets have suffered a heavy, wide-ranging sell-off this morning, driven by speculation over a possible full-blown Spanish bailout (see 8.14am and 10.52am) and a Greek exit from the euro (see 10.29).
Concerns over eurozone debt are now raging, after a few weeks out of the spotlight. City traders fear that the crisis is entering a new phase, with renewed fears that the eurozone could splinter.
The Spanish and Italian stock markets have suffered the deepest losses, reflecting fears over both country's credit-worthiness. Spain's 10-year bond yields remain above the 7.5% mark, a euro-era record).
Here's a late-morning roundup:
Spain's IBEX 35: - 251 points at 5995, - 4.02%
Italy's FTSE MIB: -603 points at 12462, - 4.62%
FTSE 100: - 97 points at 5554, - 1.7%
German DAX: -115 points at 6514, - 1.7%
French CAC: -66 points at 3127, -2.09%
Italy's FTSE MIB: -603 points at 12462, - 4.62%
FTSE 100: - 97 points at 5554, - 1.7%
German DAX: -115 points at 6514, - 1.7%
French CAC: -66 points at 3127, -2.09%
David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said that fears over Spain's financial health are driving markets down:
The familiar worries started on Friday with Spanish region Valencia requiring assistance from the government – and speculation over the weekend is suggesting there could be a further six regions that require help.
In addition there are also murmurings that due to its inability to meet the terms of its bailout, Greece will receive no further IMF aid [see 10.29].Jones also points out that, back in August 2011, the FTSE 100 shed 1000 points in just two weeks, adding:There is nothing to suggest that today's slide heralds a drop of this magnitude, but traditional low summer volumes could well accentuate market nerves in the days ahead.
Interesting developments in Germany.
1) A government spokesman has said they have not received any signal from the IMF that it is refusing to provide more support for Greece (as discussed at 10.29).
2) German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is planning to meet with Spain's Luis de Guindos tomorrow.
Megan Greene, eurocrisis expert at Roubini Global Economics, has predicted that European leaders could be forced to call another emergency summit soon, unless Spain's bond yields drop back.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9419838/Debt-crisis-live.html
13.06 Italian schools may not be able to open after the summer break if a latest round of spending cuts is implemented, according to body that represents Italian provinces.
Giuseppe Castiglione, the president of the Union of Italian Provinces (UPI) said:
With these cuts we won't be able to guarantee the opening of the school year.
11.50 Greece will not receive its next bail-out tranche until September at the earliest, the European Commission has reiterated.
A spokesman said:
The decision on the next disbursement will only be taken once the ongoing review is completed [...] over the last few months, significant delays in programme implementation have occurred due to the double parliamentary elections in the spring.
Two Greek government bonds totalling €3.1bn will mature on August 20.
Athens could be forced to raise money on the debt markets to repay them - at a very high cost.
11.20 Another record. German 10-year bond yields are now at a record low of 1.126pc. Earlier today, the country sold 12 month debt at average yields of -0.054pc.
11.08 Trading has been suspended in several stocks on the Milan stock exchange. Trader "Eloi Eloi" tweets:
11.01 The pain in Spain is spreading to Italy. Italian daily La Stampa is reporting that ten Italian regions, including Campania and Sicily, are facing trouble with their finances.
Citing government sources, the Italian daily said that big holes had been revealed in municipal accounts and that "at least 10 big cities" faced problems.
Last week, Sicily's mayor, Leoluca Orlando, said Italy's economic crisis risked sparking 'civil war' in Sicily.
10.40 Europe's crisis may have cranked up another notch, but as our international business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard pointed out to me this morning, one country we should be worried about is China.
China's benchmark index fell to its lowest level in more than three years today, after a member of its monetary policy committee said that economic growth will slow this quarter.
Song Guoqing said China’s economic growth may cool to 7.4pc. He said:
The consensus is that China’s economic growth rate will be close to 8pc in the coming months, but I personally am more pessimistic because there are problems on the export side.
The Shanghai Composite index fell 1.3pc to 2,141.40 today.
10.25 Forget Spain's ten-year borrowing costs. Two-year debt yields inSpain - at 6.74pc - are also headed towards 7pc danger levels.
Compare this with the borrowing costs of Switzerland, Denmark,Germany and Finland, which are currently borrowing at negative rates. This means investors are willing to pay to hold the debt of these countries.
10.12 Read what you will out of this:
Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos has told Reuters that the country will "absolutely not" need a full scale bail-out. Spain has already been granted up to €100bn in aid for its battered banks.
10.00 Spanish stock markets have now fallen 4.5pc today, while in Italy, shares are down by 3.3pc. The FTSE 100 in London has dropped 1.6pc.
09.49 Back to Spain, where the economy posted a 0.4pc contraction in the second quarter, a sharper fall than the 0.3pc contraction recorded in the first three months of the year, according to the Bank of Spain.
09.42 More harsh language from the Germans this morning. German MPAlexander Dobrindt has called for Greece to start paying half of its pensions and state salaries in drachmas as part of a gradual exit from the eurozone. He told Die Welt:
With Greece we have reached the end of the road. There must not be any further aid. A country which does not have the will to fulfil the conditions, or is not able to do so, must get a chance outside the euro.
Mr Dobrindt has long called for Greece to exit the euro.
Back to the drachma? German MP Alexander Dobrindt has called for Greece to start paying half of its pensions and state salaries in drachmas as part of a gradual exit from the eurozone (Photo: AP)
09.16 The protests in Spain have attracted high profile support. Here's actor Javier Bardem joining protests last Thursday. The No Country for Old Men star marched under a banner which read, "Culture is not a luxury".
Spanish actor Javier Bardem and his brother Carlos applaud as they attend a protest against government austerity measures in Madrid last week. The placard reads, "Our cuts will be with a guillotine" (Photo: Reuters).
08.45 On Friday, Valencia became the first Spanish region to seek a bail-out from a new fund setup by the Spanish central government, which is itself under heavy financial strain.
Later that evening, El Pais reported that six more regions had joined the bail-out queue - Catalonia, Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Murcia, the Canary Islands and Andalusia.
On Sunday, the head of the local government in Murcia said in an interview that the region would be the second to make a formal request for aid.
Ramon Luis Valcarcel said that he hoped that the cash injection would be available for September.
This morning, business daily El Confidencial reports that Catalonia will request €3.5bn from the bail-out pot.
And here we are today...
08.36 After falling almost 6pc on Friday, the IBEX 35 in Madrid fell by 3pc this morning to 6,062.30, while the FTSE Mib in Milan has fallen 2.6pc to 12,728.31. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index edged down 1.3pc to 5,578.77.
The yield on 10-year Spanish government bonds hit 7.53pc this morning - a euro-era high.
Meanwhile, for the first time since the beginning of 2009, it now costsItaly more to borrow than it does Ireland (6.348pc v 6.2797pc).
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