Monday, May 7, 2012

Greece post - mortem after the election and state of play !

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/55388


3.08pm New Democracy (ND) leader Antonis Samaras will meet at 16:00 with Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras, whose party took second place in Sunday's general elections. Samaras will meet the Syriza leader after receiving an exploratory mandate to form a government from President of Republic Karolos Papoulias. At five in the afternoon Samaras will meet with Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos, and at half past six with Democratic Left party president Fotis Kouvelis. He will not meet with Aleka Papariga of KKE, because according to circles close to Samaras, he considers it a pointless exercise, as KKE are outside the EU way of thought. 
 
3.03pm Antonis Samaras has begun his meeting with President Karolos Papoulias 
 
2.55pm The European Union's fiscal compact is not up for renegotiation, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, a day after Socialist Francois Hollande won France's presidential election. Hollande has criticised Germany's heavy emphasis on austerity to tackle Europe's sovereign debt crisis and has called for policies to revive economic growth. "We in Germany are of the opinion, and so am I personally , that the fiscal pact is not negotiable. It has been negotiated and has been signed by 25 countries," Merkel told a news conference. "We are in the middle of a debate to which France, of course, under its new president will bring its own emphasis. But we are talking about two sides of the same coin, progress is only achievable via solid finances plus growth," she added.
 
2.35pm Panos Kammenos of the Independent Greeks has refused to even meet Antonis Samaras, as the New Democracy head attempts to put together a coalition government. Kammenos has re-stated that he has no intention of co-operating with traitors, as he put it, dealing another heavy blow to the chance of a government arising form this series of meetings.
 
2.15pm Greece's Democratic Left party refuses to join any pro-bailout coalition of the New Democracy and Pasok parties, its leader, Fotis Kouvelis, has told Reuters. The moderate leftist party, which picked up 6.1 percent of the vote in Sunday's election, had been seen as the two traditional ruling parties' best hope for a coalition partner among the five anti-bailout parties that entered parliament. "We rule out participating in a PASOK-New Democracy government," Kouvelis told Reuters after a party meeting to decide the group's strategy.  
"We would participate in a coalition government with other progressive forces," he said, referring to other leftist parties which together do not have enough parliamentary seats to obtain a majority. The Democratic Left hold 19 seats.
2.10pm Outgoing parliament speaker Filippos Petsalnikos on Monday delivered the final results of Sunday's election results to President Karolos Papoulias. Leaving the presidential mansion afterwards, Petsalnikos, who looked particularly deflated after also learning that he has lost his Parliamentary seat, said that this is the hour of critical decisions and responsibility for Greece and its citizens, and that all the political leaders must assume the responsibility of these decisions. The meeting marked the start of the exploratory mandates procedure foreseen by the Greek Constitution. Papoulias, on his part, said "It is in my nature to be optimistic".
 
2.06pm Lars Feld, an advisor to the Angela Merkel regime has stressed that Greece now has to be quarantined from the rest of Europe, so as to put a stop to any further disruptions to the eurozone financial balance. He also said that the eurozone has to strengthen its firewalls against Greece, as he foresaw that the danger of an escalation of the euro crisis, was now significant, based on the results from the Greek elections.  
 
 
1.50pm The Pasok elections committee, chaired by the party leader Evangelos Venizelos, will convene at 2:45pm on Monday, during which it will discuss the party's stance and how it will respond to New Democracy (ND) leader Antonis Samaras' discussions to form a cooperation government.
Venizelos will meet Samaras at five in the afternoon in the latter's office in the Greek parliament.
 
1.38pm Greece is now more likely than ever before to be dropped out of the eurozone, financial analyst Nourile Roubini has said. Speaking about the general election result on his Twitter account he said: "Greece in political chaos while the recession becomes a depression. It looks like a train wreck leading eventually to default and exit". He also noted that the "Result of Greek elections much more serious than the French one as the former leads to chaos while Hollande will turn out to be a moderate". Finally he re-stated that Greece stands closer to a eurozone exit than ever before by stressing that "Greek membership in EZ is now at risk with serious contagion risks for the rest of the periphery. EZ policy uncertainty now sharply higher".
 
1.30pm Some reaction from Europe: Klaus Regling, director of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), has said that an exit Greece from the eurozone exit would be a catastrophic scenario for the country, its creditors, and for other aid programmes and the banks. He said he was not giving a prognosis on possibility of the country leaving the eurozone.
 
11.58am Equity prices plunged at the opening of trade on Monday on the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), after Sunday's elections failed to produce a government. The benchmark stock index down 7.6 percent, at 638.31 points at 11am, and turnover was at 7.864m euros. The FTSE/ASE 20 index for blue chip and heavily traded stocks was down 9.22 percent, the FTSE/ASE MID 40 index was down 6.16 percent, and the FTSE/ASE-80 small cap index was down 1.14 percent. All individual sector indices were moving downward, with the heaviest losses in banks, which were down 16.70 percent, although early trading volumes were very thin. Of the stocks traded, only one was up, 46 were moving downwards and 2 were stable.
10.40am The country is still aborbing the scale of Pasok's collapse. A string of ministers have lost their seats. The scale of the party's defeat is most evident from its performance in one of the country's most important constituencies, Athens A, where Pasok is left with only one MP, Kostas Skandalidis. 
 
10.30am One of the most remarkable results from Sunday's election was the abstention rate, which reached almost 35 percent, a record high. 
 
The abstention rate was highest in the regions of Florina, Kefalonia, Lesvos, Lakonia, Evrytania, Chios, Arkadia and Samos, ranging from 50.7 percent on Samos to 59 percent in Florina.
 
Abstention was lowest in Attica, Thessaloniki B, Athens B, Imathia, Halkidiki, Iraklio and Larisa, ranging from 24.63 percent in Attica to 29.6 percent in Larisa.
 
9.50am So, what's on the agenda for today? 
 
The election has produced no clear winner. New Democracy is, of course, the largest party and it has picked up the coveted 50 MP bonus that goes to the party first past the post. The bonus was designed by its architects (the New Democracy government of Kostas Karamanlis) to make it easier for the biggest party to form a government, but ironically, so severe has the collapse in support for the two main parties, this bonus doesn't get the winner across the line.
 
Nevertheless, the president, Karolos Papoulias, will today give the New Democracy leader what is called an exploratory mandate to form a government. This mandate is valid for three days. If Samaras fails to form a government, the president will present it to the leader of the second party, Alexis Tsipras of Syriza. If he fails, it goes to Pasok. 
 
If all attempts fail, the president will form an all-party government that will have the responsibility of calling fresh elections.
9.30am What's the state of play this morning? The count is almost complete - we're 99.01 percent done. Here's a breakdown of the percentage taken by each party with the number of seats they are expected to take in the new parliament in brackets: 
 
New Democracy 18.88% (108) 
Syriza 16.76% (52)
Pasok 13.2% (41)
Independent Greeks 10.6% (33)
Communist Party 8.47% (26)
Golden Dawn 6.97% (21)
Democratic Left 6.1% (19)
 
The following parties will not make it into parliament:
Ecogreens 2.93%
Popular Orthodox Rally 2.9%
Democratic Alliance 2.56%
Recreate Greece 2.15%
Drasi 1.8%
Antarsya 1.19%

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