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| May 6 will mark the biggest challenge the two coalition parties have ever faced. (photo:Eurokinissi) |
Voters enraged by economic hardship will punish traditional parties in a highly uncertain election on Sunday that could plunge the country into new political chaos and shake the entire euro zone.
At stake is whether the country sticks with the harsh terms of a hugely unpopular 130 billion euro EU/IMF bailout, or heads down a path that could see it ejected from the single currency, with dire risks for other EU peripheral states like Spain and Italy.
Wages and benefits have been slashed, unemployment has rocketed and thousands of businesses have collapsed. Furious Greeks have been turning to small, anti-bailout parties to punish traditional politicians they blame for the crisis.
A record 8-10 parties are expected to enter parliament, and public outrage with the main parties could turn at least four small groups into potential power-brokers.
The last polls published before the election showed the New Democracy and Pasok parties - which between them dominated Greece for decades and now rule jointly - would scrape just enough votes to renew their uneasy coalition. They are the only parties to support the bailout.
No new surveys have been allowed to be published for two weeks and pollsters warn the result may be a surprise.
"We voted for them since the 1980s and we feel cheated," municipal worker Christina Theodorakou, 50, said of the two big parties. She has seen her monthly salary cut by 500 euros since the crisis began.
"We built a life over the years and they destroyed it overnight. Their campaigns are addressing idiots. I'll vote for a small party," she said.
Her daughter Alexandra, 18, a nursing student who was joining her for lunch in the western port city of Patras, is old enough to vote for the first time but said she probably wouldn't bother: "Why go? Nobody can promise us a better future."
UPSTARTS
With the anti-bailout vote divided among the raft of upstart groups, the two big parties, led by New Democracy, are expected to go into difficult coalition talks immediately after the vote.
The big question is whether they will have enough seats to govern without having to rely on one or more of the smaller parties that oppose the bailout.
"It is the most difficult election we've ever had to predict," said Ilias Nikolakopoulos of Opinion pollsters, a veteran of more than 10 Greek elections. "Days before the polls, voters are still undecided and their behaviour is unpredictable."
If New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras and Pasok boss Evangelos Venizelos do not eke out enough votes to rule, they have few options to win additional support.
The Democratic Left of Fotis Kouvelis, a splinter from the Left Coalition, is the most moderate of the four parties vying for third place. If he refuses to join a pro-bailout government, the two may have to turn to even smaller groupings, such as that led by former New Democracy foreign minister Dora Bakoyanni.
"The two main parties must get serious. It's the worst pre-election campaign I've ever seen," Nikolakopoulos said. "They both promise things they should have done as a coalition government. They are not convincing."
His views are echoed at tavernas and coffee shops across the country, where hardship and anger at politicians for decades of mismanagement and corruption are obscuring the big question - whether Greeks want to stay in the common European currency.
To the shock of mainstream politicians, disgusted Greeks are even turning to groups condemned by the mainstream parties as extremists, such as the ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn, which is expected to enter parliament for the first time.
Venizelos has appealed to voters not to let "neo-Nazis goose-step into parliament."
The majority of Greeks, who have regularly taken to the streets in violent protests, abhor austerity measures demanded by international lenders, but polls show they want Greece to stay in the euro.
"New Democracy and Pasok must convince voters that however angry they are, they must not risk euro zone membership," said Costas Panagopoulos of ALCO pollsters. "Politically, there is only one realistic scenario."
COALITION TALK
European partners and international lenders see a New Democracy-Pasok coalition as the only viable option to keep Greece on the path of fiscal probity and push reforms.
Election rules mean the two main parties could take a severe pounding and still cling to power. They shared 77 percent of the vote in 2009, but would still hold a decent parliamentary majority if their combined share fell below 45 percent.
The party that places first in the election automatically gets an extra 50 seats to make it easier to reach the target of 151 seats needed to form a government. Small parties must get at least 3 percent of the vote to win any seats.
If no party wins outright, as is expected, the president gives the biggest group - expected to be New Democracy - three days to form a government. If it fails, the second biggest party would be given a chance, and then the next one, until all parties have had a go.
If they all fail, new elections would be called in about 20-25 days. That would inflict more political uncertainty at a time when trhe country has to come up with an additional 11 billion euros of spending cuts to please international lenders and continue to get cash essential for its survival.
Even if the two main parties command a majority between them, tough negotiations would follow to forge a common agenda and decide a prime minister.
Samaras, who wants to boost growth by cutting taxes and renegotiating parts of the bailout, will insist on leading the government. Venizelos, who has proposed spreading the bailout pain over three years instead of two, would rather find a third party candidate and seek even broader consensus.
Greece's strongest political personalities from the right and left, the two veterans are expected to lock horns even after they clinch a deal.
"In theory, they both signed up for the bailout. Whether they'll implement its demands, that's another story," said Ben May of Capital Economics. "Greece's problems are not over." (Reuters)
SO ...... why am I concerned that the greek voters will be subject to having their votes manipulated ? dig the following pieces......
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/55346
( Hmm , I wonder why all of a sudden there may be a delay in counting the votes - and they know this in advance ? Sounds shaky to me )
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| "Safe" estimate to arrive later than usual on May 6 |
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 | 3 May 2012 |
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| Singular Logic has said that a first estimation of the ballot results will take longer to produce than usual. (file photo) |
The first "safe" estimate of Sunday's election result is not expected to emerge before 11:00 p.m. on Sunday night, according to the IT firm Singular Logic, which has been assigned the job of collecting and transmitting the results of voting throughout the country.
During a meeting with accredited reporters and party representatives at the interior ministry on Thursday, Singular Logic executives pushed back the time when a 'safe estimate' would emerge by nearly two hours, blaming the unusual circumstances of these particular elections. Originally, the company had said a 'safe' estimate of the result could be expected as early as 9:30 p.m. on Sunday.
They also clarified that obtaining such a 'safe estimate' will depend on whether they have a response from 50 percent of the sample in 5,000 polling stations chosen at random and representative of the 56 electoral constituencies. The announcement of a safe estimate of the election result, with a small deviation of around 0.5 percent, is made possible through the use of Secure Results Transmission (SRT) software being used for the second time in general elections.
Firm executives also noted that a clear picture of the percentage of the vote received by each party will emerge relatively quickly but a definitive answer on whether borderline parties will clear the 3 percent hurdle for getting into Parliament might not emerge until very late into the night.
Concerning security issues, Singular Logic stressed that the system was absolutely secure and had successfully fended off attempted attacks by hackers in the previous election in 2009 without any problems at all. (AMNA)
and just wondering who thanos might be , what his affiliations are ....
http://gr.linkedin.com/pub/thanos-karantjias/2/a23/9 Thanos Karantjias who now works for Singular logic Integrator S.A formerly ( 2009 / 2010 ) was employed by the Greece Ministry of the Interior
Desing, Implementation and Management of ISMS of SingularLogic Integrator S.A.
(Main Employer: SingularLogic Integrator S.A.)
Design, implementation and management of an Information Security Management Systems (ISMS) that operates in SingularLogic Integrator. This ISMS system is certified based on the ISO:27001:2005 security standard and focuses on the Analysis, Design and Implementation of highly-secured National and European IS projects.
Secure Result Transmission System for the Greek Municipal & Peripherals Elections of 2010
- August 2010 to November 2010
(Main Employer: Greek Ministry of Interior) Design and Implementation of a secure mobile system for transmitting the Municipal and Peripherals Elections’ results at the official election platform of the Ministry of Interior integrating the following core technologies: J2ME, CLDC 1.0, MIDP 2.0 and worldwide accepted security standards and specifications for the integration of advanced... more
Secure Result Transmission System for the Greek National Elections of 2009
- June 2009 to October 2009
(Main Employer: Greek Ministry of Interior) Design and Implementation of a secure mobile system for transmitting the National Elections’ results at the official election platform of the Ministry of Interior integrating the following core technologies: J2ME, CLDC 1.0, MIDP 2.0 and worldwide accepted security standards and specifications for the integration of advanced cryptographic mechanisms. (... more
Secure Result Transmission System for the European Elections of 2009
- January 2009 to June 2009
(Main Employer: Greek Ministry of Interior)
Design and Implementation of a secure mobile system for transmitting the European Elections’ results at the official election platform of the Ministry of Interior integrating the following core technologies: J2ME, CLDC 1.0, MIDP 2.0 and worldwide accepted security standards and specifications for the integration of advanced cryptographic mechanisms.
and Thanos also worked on intel Cities project for Expertnet S.A. ...... might mean absolutely nothing but he seems tied into the Eu
About the IntelCities project
IntelCities (Intelligent Cities) is a research and technological development project to pool advanced knowledge and experience of electronic government, planning systems and citizen participation from across Europe.
The project is being led by Manchester and Siena and brings together eighteen European cities, twenty ICT companies (including Nokia and CISCO) and thirty-six research groups.
The project is part of the European Union's Sixth Framework Programme, with €6.8m of the €11.4m budget from the EU's Information Society Technologies programme.
and notice the IMF announces it will be on standby Sunday night - for what I might ask ? Hmm , that sounds shaky as well.....
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| IMF on standby in light of Sunday elections |
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| 3 May 2012 |
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| The IMF will be closely monitoring the election process on May 6. (file photo) |
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is on standby in light of Sunday's elections in Greece.
An IMF representative on Thursday once again avoided any statement concerning his position on the Greek elections, reiterating the position on the strict implementation of the loan contract and Greece's support programme.
Statements are expected as of Monday, as it is estimated by sources of the Fund, and their content will move in accordance with the election result and the developments that will be emerging.
According to assessments by American media, concern exists in circles of the IMF before the possibility of the elections leading the country to a lack of governance, creating problems in the implementation of the programme.
The increase in the percentage of parties with an "antimemorandum policy", as was recorded in opinion polls, appears to create concern in particular for both IMF officials and officials of the fiscal system of the US, believing that such a development will have negative consequences in the eurozone and, by extension, in the American economy. (AMNA)
and The Slog voices the same concerns that I see .....
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/greek-election-as-young-voters-reject-the-past-is-the-future-of-greece-about-to-be-postponed/
GREEK ELECTION: As young voters reject the past, is the future of Greece about to be postponed?
 Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Papademos told the Nation:
“In a few days we will hand over the baton to the government that will emerge from the elections on Sunday. The elections decide on the strategic orientation of Greece. They will decide about the country’s future for the upcoming decades, not just about which government will be formed after the elections. So I think the public debate should focus to the better understanding of the reality as well. But I am sure that the decisions of citizens will be facing tomorrow and not the past.”
Well Papa, the polls certainly suggest that the youth of Greece is indeed looking to tomorrow, and rejecting the corrupt Parties of the past: yet another secret poll – this time national and obtained by The Slog – has New Democracy around 21-23%, PASOK in the range 14-16%, SYRIZA at 11+%, Independent Greeks at 11+%, KKE at 10%, Golden Dawn at 8+%, and the Democratic Left at roughly 6-7%. So the old Parties of pro-EU graft are looking a bit sick….and well short of a majority.
A reliable source in Athens confirms what The Slog has been saying for the last ten days: “This will increase the pressure on the new government to renegotiate parts of the second bailout programme”. And the Troikanauts are not going to like that one bit.
You might be asking yourselves, “Was this the right time for S&P to upgrade Greece?” and I must confess to the same doubts. In fact, I have doubts about WTF S&P’s judgements about anything mean any more. However, it could be that S&P has more inside information than The Slog. A report from Athens News states that during a meeting with accredited reporters and party representatives at the interior ministry earlier today (Thursday) executives at Singular Logic in charge of the Greek electoral count pushed back the time when a ‘safe estimate’ of the result would emerge by nearly two hours.
Far be it from me to suggest that this might allow more time for electoral jiggery-pokery. Singular Logic stressed that the system was “absolutely secure and had successfully fended off attempted attacks by hackers in the previous election in 2009 without any problems at all”. What on Earth can they mean?
In the time between now and that enigma being solved, here’s another consideration that the Greek electorate is weighing up. In the first quarter of 2012,Greek tax revenues rose by 1.7 billion euros from 24.2 billion 25.9 billion. And primary government expenditure decreased from 23.692 billion to 23.626 billion. In order to achieve this, however, the public as a whole had to cought up 7 billion euros, compared with just 3.33 billion in the corresponding period last year.
Now….how many Governments do you know about that got re-elected having more than doubled tax revenues?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: the Troika is in for something of a drubbing. And that might well explain why the election ‘result’ could be delayed, in order to take account of ‘mistakes’.
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