Three days to March 8th.......

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iif-steering-committee-holds-only-20-greek-bonds-subject-psi

IIF Steering Committee Holds Only 20% Of Greek Bonds Subject To PSI

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/05/2012 15:30 -0500

• Bond
 
• Creditors
 
• default
 
• Deutsche Bank
 
• Greece
 
• Sovereign Default

Earlier this morning, to much fanfare, the various member of the IIF steering committee announced that they would all gladly be part of the voluntary haircut that would chop off over 70% of their hair. TheFT described this development as follows: "A large grouping of private creditors agreed on Monday to take part in the multibillion-euro Greek debt swap in a significant step forward for Athens as the country struggles to avert a sovereign default. Twelve banks, insurers, asset managers and hedge funds in the steering committee of bank lobby group the Institute of International Finance said in a statement that they would take part in the bond exchange. Members of the IIF steering committee include BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, National Bank of Greece, Allianz and Greylock Capital Management. A spokesman for the IIF said this represented a “substantial” amount of the €206bn in Greek bonds held by the private sector that banks managing the swap are trying to involve. Analysts estimate that institutions represented by the IIF make up about 50 per cent of the private sector bonds."Bzzz. Analysts, as so often happens, may have been wrong to quite wrong.  According to just released data from Bloomberg analysts analysts may have overestimated the substantial amount... by about 150%. From Bloomberg: "Private Investors Holding About 20% of Greek Debt to Join Swap...The 12 members of the creditors’ steering committee that said today they would join in the exchange have debt with a face value of about 40b euros ($53b), compared with the 206b euros of Greek bonds in private hands, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from company reports." If so, this means that a whopping 80% of the bonds subject to exchange are unaccounted for, and more importantly, it means that the likelihood of a major blocking stake having organized is far greater than even we expected.

As we said earlier today, everyone is now scrambling to get some color on how many funds are currently part of the Bingham group of ad hoc hold out creditors and how many bonds they represent. If the above is even remotely indicative of holding patterns 3 days ahead of the deadline, the PSI ain't gonna happen.

and not surprisingly....

Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 1,006%

As a matter of curiosity more than anything else, I occasionally take a peek at Greek bond yields. Today, the Greek 1-year yield topped 1,000% for the first time.

The following chart courtesy of Bloomberg.

To be specific, the yield is a nice 1,066.661%

That yield reflects the idea that 1-year bonds will be nearly worthless before the month is over.

and......

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_18803_05/03/2012_431301

Venizelos warns holdouts as IIF members back PSI Greece warned private bondholders thinking of rejecting the offer for a debt restructuring deal not to do so as Athens edged closer on Monday to securing the level of participation it needs to be able to proceed with the private sector involvement plan, or PSI. “Whoever thinks that they will hold out and be paid in full is mistaken,” Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Reuters in an interview. “We are ready to activate CACs [collective action clauses] if needed.” Bondholders have until 9 p.m. Central European Time on Thursday to accept the offer that Greece has made regarding more than 200 billion euros in debt. Following an agreement with its eurozone partners, Athens has proposed to its bondholders that they accept a nominal loss of 53.5 percent on their investments, which in real terms will mean taking a hit of about 74 percent. The Institute of International Finance, which represented banks, asset managers, hedge funds and insurers during the negotiations with Greece ahead of the government making its offer, issued a statement on Monday saying that members of its steering committee would take part in the scheme voluntarily. The committee members are: Allianz, Alpha Bank, AXA, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Eurobank, Greylock Capital Management, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and the National Bank of Greece. It is thought they hold about 90 billion euros in Greek bonds. “Neither the steering committee nor any of its members makes any recommendation or offers any advice to any other holder of PSI eligible debt,” the statement said. “Each such holder must make their own decision whether or not to participate in those offers based on their own particular interests and on the advice and assistance of their own advisers.” Venizelos’s comments and the IIF’s announcement appear to be an attempt to build up some momentum in the bond swap ahead of this week’s deadline. If between 66 and 74 percent of bondholders sign up for the deal, Athens can force losses on the holdouts via the CACs. Venizelos said he was confident the take-up would be above 90 percent. But if it is between 75 and 90 percent, Greece and its eurozone partners will have to discuss the pros and cons of enforcing CACs and triggering the payout of credit default swaps.