Saturday, March 3, 2012

The half life of optimistic bs tends to be about 48 - 72 hours..... So , Greece is on the clock !

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_02/03/2012_430907



PM upbeat after EU summit, sees recovery mid-2013

 Growth measures heralded by European leaders will break ‘vicious cycle,' Papademos says

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he would be returning to Greece following the European Union leaders’ summit in Brussels on Friday “more hopeful” about the future as the EU has placed additional focus on growth, Nick Malkoutzis reported from Brussels.
“I return to Athens more hopeful as a result of the decisions taken at the summit,” Papademos said, adding that he expects the Greek economy to begin showing signs of recovery by mid-2013.
The focus shifted away from the Greek problem in Brussels on Friday with EU leaders examining broader problems. The leaders of all but two of the bloc’s 27 member states -- Britain and the Czech Republic -- signed a new treaty aimed at enforcing budget discipline within the EU.
Meanwhile sources indicated that the mood toward Greece had warmed after eurozone ministers expressed satisfaction with Greek efforts to push through reforms. Papademos noted that the emphasis of EU leaders on the importance of growth was a boon. “Growth is now Europe’s top priority. Decisions have been taken that will promote growth. This will help Greece exit from the crisis and will help with our fiscal consolidation,” he said.
Papademos also pledged the quicker and more effective absorption of EU structural funds to tackle “unacceptably high” unemployment. The European Investment Bank will be brought into a scheme to provide small and medium-sized businesses with capital funding, he added.
The premier said it was time to end the “vicious cycle” that the Greek economy finds itself in as a result of repeated austerity measures.
He identified several steps that could be taken to improve economic conditions: better use of structural funds, the completion of highway projects, the recapitalization of banks, more focus on renewable energy, exploration for fossil fuels, and improvements to tax collection.
The prime minister argued that the combination of the new bailout, structural reforms and use of EU funds would help lead the economy to recovery.
He added that he was confident that Greece’s debt restructuring, or PSI, with private bondholders to reduce debt by more than 100 billion euros would progress according to plan, noting that the “offer has attractive features.” He refused to be drawn on a comment by Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker referring to a “Plan B” for Greece if PSI does not succeed.


and....


http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_4046_02/03/2012_430901


Optimism for successful end to PSI

By Yiannis Papadoyiannis
The progress of the private sector involvement plan (PSI+) and the participation in the haircut on loans issued by banks to state utilities were the focus of Friday’s meeting between Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and the governors of the country’s main commercial banks in the presence of Bank of Greece Governor Giorgos Provopoulos.
Venizelos referred to the vital importance of private sector involvement and the crucial success of the program in order to have the second bailout package to Greece released.
Bank officials appear optimistic about the success of the plan, stressing that domestic lenders hold no less than 45 billion euros’ worth of state bonds, while another 23 billion euros is held in Greek bonds by the country’s social security funds. As a result the Greek share amounts to some 35 percent of all debt to be slashed by 53.5 percent.
The members of the committee that negotiated with the Greek government represent 80 percent of the bonds to undergo a haircut, i.e. 165 billion out of the 206 billion euros.
The same bank officials estimate that for PSI to prove successful and meet the target set by the eurozone, the country’s debt will need to decrease by at least 90 billion euros. They are now expressing confidence that this figure will be attained.
The managing director of the Institute of International Finance, Charles Dallara, who brokered the PSI deal on behalf of private creditors, said on Friday, «We are quite encouraged by reactions we have heard and certainly expect this to be a very successful deal."

and more happy talk...

http://www.financialmirror.com/news-details.php?nid=25830



EU to decide on firewall in March, ECB says clock ticking

02 March, 2012
The euro zone will decide whether to increase its debt crisis firewall before the end of March after the European Central Bank said its extraordinary support measures would not be repeated, putting the onus squarely back on governments to act. 

Speaking after a two-day summit of EU leaders, Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, said euro zone finance ministers would meet to discuss the size of a permanent rescue fund, probably at an informal gathering in Copenhagen set for March 30-31. 

The aim will be to combine the 250 billion euros left in the temporary EFSF bailout fund with 500 billion euros in the permanent ESM facility to create a "super-fund" better able to cope with potential problems in Spain or Italy, although Germany remains opposed to the idea for now. 

"We will revaluate the ceiling for the ESM and EFSF during the month of March," Van Rompuy said, adding that countries would pay two tranches of capital into the ESM this year, ensuring that a strong facility is running from July. 

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had agreed to resolve the firewall "by the end of March", reiterating the deadline. 

The stepped-up commitment followed a firm message from ECB President Mario Draghi at a dinner late on Thursday, during which he warned the EU's 27 leaders against complacency, after several had suggested the worst of the crisis may be over. 

Speaking after the summit, Merkel made clear the crisis, which began in 2010, was far from over. 

"We are still in a fragile situation. The situation is somewhat calmer but the crisis has not at all been overcome. Further steps are necessary," she said. 
Officials said Draghi had told the leaders that the central bank's provision of more than 1 trillion euros of cheap three-year loans was not going to be repeated. It had merely brought the euro zone time, he said, and made it essential that structural reforms were pushed through promptly. 

"We will use this time," said Merkel. "We will certainly not take such additional measures. The liquidity goes out of the market again." 

Major economies in the Group of 20 told the Europeans last weekend they would not give the International Monetary Fund more money to combat the fallout from the euro zone crisis unless Europe first increased its own warchest. 

SPAIN CONCERNS 

The March 1-2 summit is the first for more than 18 months that has not focused almost entirely on crisis resolution, with leaders instead looking to shift the narrative towards growth as recession looms and unemployment climbs steadily. 

But underpinning the discussions about how to stimulate the economy were concerns about the austerity drive having gone too far, with countries too battened down to grow. 

Spain, where the economy is forecast to shrink at least 1.0% this year, defied the European Union, setting a 2012 deficit target at 5.8% of gross domestic product, a far softer goal than the 4.4% agreed with Brussels. 

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had hoped to get backing for some leeway, explaining that it was putting Madrid in a straightjacket while unemployment stands at 23% and rising and growth is evaporating. 

But in the event the leaders made clear countries were expected to meet their budget deficit goals, underlining that new rules imposed over the past two years were not going to be loosened just because one or two were facing difficulties. 
CLOCK TICKING 

While the ECB programme, introduced shortly after Draghi took over as president in November, has done much to calm financial markets, the Italian has come under pressure internally over the strategy. 

Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann wrote to Draghi last month to express concerns about risks stemming from the strategy and other ECB policymakers have similar qualms, saying it could fuel imbalances in the euro area and stoke inflation. 

Sources had told Reuters last month the second round of funding was likely to be the last, with liquidity equivalent to nearly 10% of euro zone GDP injected into the economy in less than three months. 

For Draghi, the message is now that euro zone leaders have to implement the strict structural economic reforms demanded by their peers, including to rigid labour markets and costly pensions systems, so they are prepared for the future. 

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny, whose country has already received a bailout from the EU/IMF but is doing better than either Greece or Portugal at handling the demands imposed upon it, said there was no scope to slacken on reforms.


1 comment:

  1. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9121151/Greek-default-looms-as-voluntary-debt-deal-looks-set-to-fail.html


    Raoul Ruparel of Open Europe, the London-based think-tank, said: “Greece is likely to struggle to reach the targets for a voluntary agreement so the credit rating agencies are almost certainly going to see this as a default.

    ReplyDelete